12
Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) 1 Executive Summary Portfolio Performance So Far The model portfolios had a disappointing start this year mostly due to a correction hitting the market. Most of the equity funds were down at the start of the year while bonds funds managed to take a sigh of relief during the month. But the correction seems to be temporary and equity side would pick up again soon. U.S has already increased the tapering to $20 million a month now. This has caused some real issues to the emerging markets especially those which are afflicted with high inflation and BOP deficits. Europe on the other side is slowly recovering but the pace seems to mild down. The real concern at the start of the year came from China in the form of shadow banking system which still lingers, although authorities are taking action to overcome it. Bonds Solutions Portfolio Update Bond Portfolio managed to gain slightly and returned 0.05%. UOB United Asian Bond and PineBridge Singapore Bond turned out to be the best of the bond funds gaining 0.7% and 0.64% each. Short duration and High yield bonds still remain popular in the market especially when the interest rates are expected to rise in future. Money Plus+ Portfolio Update The portfolio returned back to its positive return mode and made 0.2% of gains for the month of January. Short Term Bond funds and Money Market funds are one of the least sensitive funds to the increasing interest rates environment and plays a vital role for investors who are risk averse. Funds’ Performance Table Bond funds outperform the equity funds as the market corrected in the first month of the year. Schroder AS Gold and Precious Metals fund turned out to be the best fund for the month riding on the back of weak equity market and gained 5.92%. On the other hand the biggest laggard turned out to be the Fidelity China Focus and Aberdeen Global Emerging Market funds loosing 5.68% and 5.28% respectively. Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfolios Market Review for January Stock market didn’t have an auspicious start in 2014 as most people were expecting. January got hit by many events which gave investors a gloomy start mostly driven by weakness in emerging markets, credit liquidity issues in China, retrenchment in the global growth and etc. US Fed has further reduced its bond buying program and Eurozone in its recent data continues to expand. In January Federal Reserve increased its pace of tapering further and now has reduced by $20 billion in total. This move in addition to very soft durable goods data plus weaker non- farm payroll for the month of December ignited a profit taking rally bringing down most of the world market at the start of the year. The US earning’s season is underway and most of the two-third companies that have reported so far have managed to beat earnings estimates but even that hasn’t kept investors from profit taking. Eurozone continues to move on the right track of economic expansion and its January PMI index rose to 52.9 level and economic sentiment all improved, signalling the most rapid expansion since Jun 2011. The sovereign government bond yields in the periphery has also eased up helping nations such as Portugal to start making plans for its exit from the bailout program. But on the other hand unemployment still remains high at 12% while inflation still looks subdued. Private sector credit growth also remains low. Monetary policy still remains accommodative and a further rate cut might be expected in near future. Japan seems to enjoy better outlook for now with its exports rising for the tenth consecutive month. Inflation remains persistent but the reforms are yet far from anywhere near implementation and their trade deficit continues due to higher energy prices. On the other hand in China, surprisingly, the PMI index fell below 50 in January renewing fears of its hard landing. However it wasn’t the only factor for the emerging market crisis. Fed decision of tapering is putting downward pressure on emerging market currencies especially to those with higher inflation and balance of payment deficits. Countries like India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Brazil among others are all facing issues over depreciating currencies and BOP deficits causing the emerging market index to slip by 4.4% in January. The MSCI World Index fell 3.2%, S&P500 was down 3.6% while the global bond market index was up 1.7% for the month. February 2014

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Page 1: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

1

Executive Summary

Portfolio Performance So Far – The model portfolios had a disappointing start this year mostly due to a

correction hitting the market. Most of the equity funds were down at the start of the year while bonds funds

managed to take a sigh of relief during the month. But the correction seems to be temporary and equity side would

pick up again soon. U.S has already increased the tapering to $20 million a month now. This has caused some

real issues to the emerging markets especially those which are afflicted with high inflation and BOP deficits.

Europe on the other side is slowly recovering but the pace seems to mild down. The real concern at the start of

the year came from China in the form of shadow banking system which still lingers, although authorities are taking

action to overcome it.

Bonds Solutions Portfolio Update – Bond Portfolio managed to gain slightly and returned 0.05%. UOB – United

Asian Bond and PineBridge – Singapore Bond turned out to be the best of the bond funds gaining 0.7% and

0.64% each. Short duration and High yield bonds still remain popular in the market especially when the interest

rates are expected to rise in future.

Money Plus+ Portfolio Update – The portfolio returned back to its positive return mode and made 0.2% of gains

for the month of January. Short Term Bond funds and Money Market funds are one of the least sensitive funds to

the increasing interest rates environment and plays a vital role for investors who are risk averse.

Funds’ Performance Table – Bond funds outperform the equity funds as the market corrected in the first month

of the year. Schroder AS – Gold and Precious Metals fund turned out to be the best fund for the month riding on

the back of weak equity market and gained 5.92%. On the other hand the biggest laggard turned out to be the

Fidelity China Focus and Aberdeen – Global Emerging Market funds loosing 5.68% and 5.28% respectively.

Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfolios

Market Review for January

Stock market didn’t have an auspicious start in 2014 as most people were expecting.

January got hit by many events which gave investors a gloomy start mostly driven by

weakness in emerging markets, credit liquidity issues in China, retrenchment in the global

growth and etc. US Fed has further reduced its bond buying program and Eurozone in its

recent data continues to expand.

In January Federal Reserve increased its pace of tapering further and now has reduced by

$20 billion in total. This move in addition to very soft durable goods data plus weaker non-

farm payroll for the month of December ignited a profit taking rally bringing down most of

the world market at the start of the year. The US earning’s season is underway and most of

the two-third companies that have reported so far have managed to beat earnings

estimates but even that hasn’t kept investors from profit taking.

Eurozone continues to move on the right track of economic expansion and its January PMI

index rose to 52.9 level and economic sentiment all improved, signalling the most rapid

expansion since Jun 2011. The sovereign government bond yields in the periphery has

also eased up helping nations such as Portugal to start making plans for its exit from the

bailout program. But on the other hand unemployment still remains high at 12% while

inflation still looks subdued. Private sector credit growth also remains low. Monetary policy

still remains accommodative and a further rate cut might be expected in near future.

Japan seems to enjoy better outlook for now with its exports rising for the tenth

consecutive month. Inflation remains persistent but the reforms are yet far from anywhere

near implementation and their trade deficit continues due to higher energy prices. On the

other hand in China, surprisingly, the PMI index fell below 50 in January renewing fears of

its hard landing. However it wasn’t the only factor for the emerging market crisis. Fed

decision of tapering is putting downward pressure on emerging market currencies

especially to those with higher inflation and balance of payment deficits. Countries like

India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Brazil among others are all facing issues over

depreciating currencies and BOP deficits causing the emerging market index to slip by

4.4% in January. The MSCI World Index fell 3.2%, S&P500 was down 3.6% while the

global bond market index was up 1.7% for the month.

February 2014

Page 2: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

Table 1: Model Portfolio Performance*

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Express and UT Research Team, performance as of 31st Jan 2014+ Money Plus is not a deposit and investment through Money Plus is not the same as placing money on deposit with a bank or

deposit-taking company such as a finance company.

February 2014

High Risk

Cash

High Risk

CPF

Med Risk

Cash

Med Risk

CPF

Low Risk

Cash

Low Risk

CPF

Bonds

Solution

Portfolio

Money

Plus+

Portfolio

1 Week -1.20% -1.17% -1.09% -0.98% -0.75% -0.73% -0.20% 0.02%

1 Month -1.72% -2.48% -0.87% -2.08% -1.12% -1.21% 0.05% 0.20%

3 Month -3.54% -3.20% -2.15% -2.99% -1.00% -2.43% -0.17% 0.33%

YTD -1.72% -2.48% -0.87% -2.08% -1.12% -1.21% 0.05% 0.20%

1 Year -5.43% -2.59% -3.43% -2.92% 0.32% -2.49% -0.96% 1.31%

2013 -2.16% -2.92% -0.72% -1.64% -0.37% -0.06% 2.56% 1.66%

2012 8.63% 10.24% 6.52% 8.42% 5.70% 7.31% 6.63% 3.54%

2011 -10.92% -10.43% -8.37% -7.63% -6.95% -6.33% -1.04% 0.14%

2010 -0.48% 6.55% 1.36% 3.62% 4.85% 3.33% 5.00% --

2009 6.26% 10.01% 5.40% 6.98% 0.92% 3.70% -- --

Net of

WRAP

Fees

at 1.5% paat 0.5%

pa

at 0.25%

pa

Inception 29 Dec 20064 Jan

2010

6 Oct

2011

Page 3: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

3

Key Changes to High Risk Portfolio (Fund Source: Cash)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The Portfolio realized another month of losses, shredding 1.72% for the month of January. All the equity

related funds were down for the month. Schroder AS – Gold and Precious Metals A Hedged fund proved to

be a real life saver, helping the portfolio reduce its heavy losses to some extent. The fund itself gained

5.92% for the month.

Gold had a surprising start this year. With the stock market going through the correctional period, the

yellow metal got some push towards the $1250-1300 range. But even then Gold having given so many

chances since last year didn’t manage to show any promising bullish trend. On the backdrop, hedge funds

and other institutional buyers which are the main driving force continues to abandon gold for this year as

well. Gold ETF holdings are now at their lowest level since 2008 suggesting that not much potential lies for

Gold this year as well.

Equities had a rocky start this year and posted its first loss in January since 2010. Usually how stock

markets performs in January sets the tone for the year. Just to share some trivia stats, S&P has managed

to finish on green territory only 50% of the time after a negative January start. And every down January

since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction or a flat market. But of

course there are few exceptions like in 2003 and 2009 where a bad January start ended up with very high

returns for that year.

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

High Risk Cash Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund (Core) 10% UOB United Asian Bond 10%

DWS Invest Top Dividend S2H(P) SGD (Core) 10%Schroder AS Gold and Precious Metals Fund A

Acc SGD Hedged10%

Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund 12% Templeton Global Total Return Fund A H1 MDis 10%

JP Morgan ASEAN Fund 13% Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies 10%

First State Regional China Fund 10% Phillip Money Market Fund (Cash Component) 5%

Table 2: Latest Portfolio Components

February 2014

Page 4: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

4

Key Changes to Medium Risk Portfolio (Fund Source: Cash)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The Portfolio lost 0.87% for the month of January. All the equity portfolios shredded substantial losses due

to the retreat in the market but most of the losses were offset by its bond funds investments. The best fund

in the portfolio for the month turned out to be Schroder AS – Gold and Precious Metals fund gaining 5.92%

for the month.

The biggest financial structural challenges China is facing at this moment are the rising credit expansion,

local government debt expansion, ballooning shadow banking system and the over-leveraging of the

corporate sector. Until very recently, due to lack of transparency the government was unaware of the exact

figures. However the recent audit done by the Chinese authorities suggested that it has reached to $ 2.95

trillion. Although the government has been claiming that this debt is still under control but the recent few

incidents of default-to-be cases within China has already started to give investors cold feet. On a brighter

side the authorities have already started to take steps and late last year China’s State Council issued new

guidelines to limit credit growth outside formal channels. The guidelines defines the shadow banking

system and strengthens the country’s regulatory framework.

One reason that this shadow banking system has turned into such a big financial risk is due to the

imbalance in revenue and expenditure between the central and local governments. These local

government has 85% of fiscal expenditure and only manages to collect 52% of the fiscal revenues. This

has forced the local governments to rely heavily on the land sales and borrowing through the local

government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The fiscal deficit for the local government has now reached to

8.5% of local GDP which is highly unsustainable.

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

Table 3: Latest Portfolio Components

Medium Risk Cash Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund (Core) 10% LionGlobal Singapore Fixed Income Investment 10%

DWS Invest Top Dividend S2H(P) SGD (Core) 10% DWS Lion Bond Fund 10%

First State Regional China Fund 12% UOB United Asian Bond 10%

JP Morgan JF ASEAN Fund 13% Aberdeen Global Opportunities 10%

Schroder AS Gold and Precious Metals Fund A Acc

SGD Hedged10% Phillip Money Market Fund (Cash Component) 5%

February 2014

Page 5: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

Key Changes to Low Risk Portfolio (Fund Source: Cash)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The portfolio had another bad month and lost 1.12% for the month. Like all the other portfolios, all the

equity fund shredded losses with First State Regional China losing the most by 4.87%. On the other hand

all the bond funds secured positive returns with UOB – United Asia Bond gaining the most by 0.7%.

Thailand still remains volatile due to its political developments. The government had already declared a

60 day emergency in the capital city of Bangkok to try to overcome the political unrest and for elections to

continue as planned. Although the government managed to pull off the elections but the complete results

are not out yet due to low turnout and chaos all over the capital city.

Eurozone has been able to transition out of recession recently. After a protracted period of bearish

sentiment and risk containment, investors have finally started to gain confidence in the region’s prospect.

The leading business cycle indicators have been showing a clear and intact upward trend since the

middle of 2013. And the region is expected to grow at a tepid rate of 1% this year. ECB still remains

determined to maintain its loose monetary policy and to further reduce the policy rates if need arises, But

the progress on the banking union still remains tepid not to mention that the fiscal union still remains non-

existent. Plus the ongoing deleveraging and fiscal consolidation still remains a drag on the recovery of

Eurozone.

5

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

Table 4: Latest Portfolio Components

Low Risk Cash Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund (Core) 10% LionGlobal Singapore Fixed Income Investment 10%

DWS Invest Top Dividend S2H(P) SGD (Core) 13% UOB United Asian Bond 10%

First State Regional China Fund 12% DWS Lion Bond Fund 10%

JP Morgan ASEAN Fund 10% UOB United SGD Bond 10%

Fullerton Short Term Interest Rate Fund 10% Phillip Money Market Fund (Cash Component) 5%

February 2014

Page 6: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

6

Key Changes to High Risk Portfolio (Fund Source: CPF)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The portfolio’s performance was the worst of all the portfolios and lost 2.48% for the month of January.

Again all equity funds contributed to its negative performance. Bond funds such as the PineBridge

Singapore bond, Nikko AM – Shenton Short Term bond and DWS – Lion bond funds were the only gainers

for the month realizing 0.62%, 0.29% and 0.22% respectively.

Southeast Asian market remains vulnerable to the global economic volatility. Fed tapering is making things

even worse as it keeps putting downward pressure to some of the currencies such as in Indonesia. On the

other hand South Korea still remains resilient to such high impacts due to its better fundamentals and

balance of payments surpluses. Markets such as South Korea and Taiwan are more exposed to the

improving economic outlook in developed markets as well as the technology capital expenditure cycle,

which is supposed to improve into 2014 as well. Historically both markets are relatively attractive but South

Korea is preferred overall on the back of its improving economy and attractive valuation.

Japan’s economy remains persistent but their trade deficits continues to widen due to higher energy

prices. However the biggest test for the country remains with the implementation of its consumption tax

hike. Last time Japan increased the sales tax in 1997, the economy went into recession. Both the

government and the central bank are cognizant of this precedent and the government has already

submitted a record-high budget that would start in April and would aim to smoothen the impact of tax hike.

Table 8: Latest Portfolio Components

High Risk CPF Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund (Core) 15% Legg Mason WA Southeast Asia Special Situations 13%

Aberdeen Global Opportunities (Core) 15% Fidelity China Focus 10%

Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund 12% DWS Lion Bond Fund 10%

Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund 15% PineBridge Singapore Bond Fund 10%

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

February 2014

Page 7: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

7

Key Changes to Medium Risk Portfolio (Fund Source: CPF)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The portfolio suffered substantial losses of 2.08%. Surprisingly, PineBridge – Singapore Bond turned

out to be a life saver and gained 0.64%. While all the equity funds were down for the month with Fidelity

China Focus fund lagging the most with the losses of 5.68%.

India has been facing high inflation for last 5 years. Consumer price inflation especially in food prices

has sharply increased recently and is causing resentment within the masses especially when the

General Election are approaching. Another problem is their persistent current account deficit. India was

walloped into panic during mid-last year because it did have a very high current account deficit. The

good news in that regard is that this deficit has started to come off. This has happened due to the

weaker Indian rupee increasing their exports while on the other hand authorities took measures such as

to curb the import of Gold reducing its import.

In the meanwhile some backlash between RBI and the government could be expected as their goals

seems to have changed. RBI on one hand is determined to reduce inflation and is keen to increase

interest rates whenever required. While on the other hand government is more determined to keep

growth rate up to use it to their advantage in the upcoming election and so tightened monetary policy is

not what they want. But one important thing to consider is that the policies that have been able to

reduce the current account deficits and helped to rebuild reserves will eventually have to be phased out.

And especially if the national elections throw up a confused mandate. That will be as far as the first half

goes. What happens over the second half of 2014 will depend a lot on what the results of the national

elections are.

Table 9: Latest Portfolio Components

Medium Risk CPF Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund (Core) 15% Legg Mason WA Southeast Asia Special Situations 10%

Aberdeen Global Opportunities

(Core) 10% Fidelity China Focus 10%

Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund 12%LionGlobal Singapore Fixed Income

Investment15%

Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund 13% DWS Lion Bond Fund 5%

PineBridge Singapore Bond Fund 10%

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

February 2014

Page 8: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

8

Key Changes to Low Risk Portfolio (Fund Source: CPF)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The Portfolio lost -1.21% for the month of January, losing for the third consecutive month. All the

equity based funds sustained losses due to market correction. But on the other hand bond funds

progressed for the month with PineBridge Singapore Bond gaining the most by 0.64%.

ASEAN region still in need of deeper integration. The region is still facing challenges in meeting its

objective to develop a common market by 2015. Development gaps between the member states are

still substantial and more rigorous policies are required to narrow it down and to achieve better

economics. Trade needs to be more liberalize plus a better cooperation will also open new avenues for

investment. Within ASEAN members, Philippines and Indonesia remains the fastest growing countries

though Indonesia currently has been taken over by the fast depreciation currency issues.

Eurozone unemployment came off a little last month to 12% but remains high with many of the bigger

nations constrained by a lack of competitiveness due to high labor costs and a strong currency. The

leadership might be distancing itself from the ideology of severe austerity measures, but public debt

remains high and the members will need to continue to improve the financial balances to attract

foreign investors. Similarly, banks will remain in deleveraging mode, especially following region-wide

stress tests, resulting in a continuation of tight credit conditions.

Table 10: Latest Portfolio Components

Low Risk CPF Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund (Core) 15% PineBridge Singapore Bond Fund 10%

Aberdeen Global Opportunities

(Core)10%

LionGlobal Singapore Fixed Income

Investment15%

Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund 12% DWS Lion Bond Fund 15%

Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund 13% UOB United SGD Fund 10%

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

February 2014

Page 9: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

9

Key Changes to Bonds Solution Portfolio (Fund Source: Cash)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The portfolio managed to earn slightly positive returns for another month as well. UOB – United Asian

Bond was the best performing fund in the portfolio registering gains of 0.7%. This fund is one of the

very few medium term bond fund which managed to earn positive returns last year despite all the

negative bias towards bond market.

In general improving global economic growth and abundant central bank liquidity will help keep default

rates low. Descent corporate earnings is helping fundamentally strong companies to grow their

balance sheets plus excess liquidity in the market is helping weaker ones to remain solvent. The high

yield bonds will be able to absorb small increases in government yield through tightening in the credit

spreads this year as well. It should be noted that in environment where growth is still slowly picking up,

tightening of the spreads to offset interest rates will still leave credit spreads well above their historic

lows.

Another type of fixed income investment, the investors might be interested in could be the European

convertible bonds. The bonds have very low sensitivity to interest rates which helps them contain

losses during times when interest rate increases but at the same time provides an upside in case the

equity market rallies. More than 50% of convertible bonds available in the market are of investment

grade type and so provides a sound credit profile.

Asian fixed income market also had a rough turbulent last year especially after the tapering idea was

brought forward. This year we can expect some dispersion in performance within Asia Pacific region.

Countries which still enjoy low debt levels, good demographics, healthy and stable growth prospects

and resilient domestic demand will help them keep the fundamental strength intact and will also help

them resist some of the tapering impacts.

Table 11: Latest Portfolio Components

Bonds Solutions Portfolio

UOB United Asian Bond 18% Templeton Global Total Return Fund A H1 MDis 5%

DWS Lion Bond Fund 13% UOB United SGD Fund 13%

PIMCO Emerging Markets Bond Fund SGD Hedged 10% Phillip Money Market Fund (Cash Component) 5%

PineBridge Singapore Bond Fund 18% Schroder Singapore Fixed Income Fund 18%

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

February 2014

Page 10: Dismal start in 2014 for the Model Portfoliosinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/Expert... · Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte

Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

10

Key Changes to Money Plus+ Portfolio (Fund Source: Cash)

Switched out:

None

Switched in:

None

Comments:

The portfolio had a good first month of the year and managed to pull returns of 0.2%. The portfolio has

been able to garner returns of 1.31% on 1 year basis. Volatility has consistently remained low at

0.58% while the Sharpe ratio has remained highest of all the other portfolios at 1.42.

Money Market funds had another month of positive returns and managed to end the month on positive

note. With the high volatility prevailing in the market and the bond yield rising after the Fed tapering

measures, the portfolio provides safe bet for the risk averse investors who are looking for more stable

returns with minimal risk taken.

The important thing is that countries in Asia Pacific region has already recognize the importance of

structural reforms to be implemented in order to sustain and resist volatility due to changing global

economic health. These structural reforms will help strengthen institutions and will foster sustainable

growth. Some of the agendas countries have worked so far are things like bringing energy sector and

subsidy reforms in Indonesia and Malaysia, infrastructure spending reforms in Philippines and India,

reforms to transform into consumption based economy in China and etc.

Money Plus+ Portfolio

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund 30% Fullerton Short Term Interest Rate Fund 35%

LionGlobal SGD Money Market Fund 30% Phillip Money Market Fund (Cash Component) 5%

Table 12: Latest Portfolio Components

Source: All information from UT Research Team unless otherwise stated, as of 31st January 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.+ Money Plus is not a deposit and investment through Money Plus is not the same as placing money on deposit with a bank or

deposit-taking company such as a finance company.#There is no guarantee that the returns over the long term will be stable and steady as investment returns are subject to market

conditions and investment risks which may cause you to lose your original principal amount invested.

February 2014

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Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

11

Source: Financial Express, performance as of 31st Jan 2014

Funds are in Singapore dollar share class unless otherwise stated, assuming dividends are reinvested.

*Sharpe ratios are calculated assuming a risk-free rate of 0.5%.

Table 13: Portfolio Funds’ Performance

February 2014

Fund Name1 Mth

Return %

3 Mth

Return %

1 Yr

Return %

1 Yr Sharpe

Ratio*

Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies Fund-4.66 -7.67 -5.81 -0.01

Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund-5.28 -9.41 -12.18 -0.02

Aberdeen Global Opportunities Fund-2.92 -1.65 6.57 0.58

Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund-3.15 -5.73 -5.58 -0.01

DWS Invest Top Dividend S2H(P) SGD-3.10 -1.49 8.29 0.86

DWS Lion Bond Fund0.22 0.38 1.60 1.93

Fidelity China Focus Fund-5.68 -1.73 0.99 0.00

First State Regional China Fund-4.87 -1.05 3.74 0.25

Fullerton Short Term Interest Rate Fund0.34 0.57 2.44 1.89

JP Morgan JF ASEAN Fund-2.61 -7.65 -6.13 -0.01

Legg Mason WA Southeast Asia Special Situations-2.45 -2.99 -1.17 0.00

LionGlobal SGD Money Market Fund0.05 0.13 0.51 0.07

LionGlobal Singapore Fixed Income Investment0.62 -0.89 -1.49 0.00

Nikko AM Shenton Short Term Bond Fund0.29 0.48 1.78 1.66

Phillip Money Market Fund0.03 0.10 0.43 0.00

PIMCO Emerging Markets Bond Fund SGD Hedged-1.63 -3.83 -8.04 -0.01

PineBridge Singapore Bond Fund0.64 -0.44 -0.31 0.00

Schroder Singapore Fixed Income Fund0.53 -1.20 -1.78 0.00

Schroder AS Gold & Precious Metals Fund A Acc H5.92 -7.01 -31.19 -0.08

Templeton Global Total Return Fund A H1 MDis -3.05 -1.70 -0.97 0.00

UOB United Asian Bond0.70 3.10 0.21 0.00

UOB United SGD0.30 0.91 3.80 3.52

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Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z

Brought to you by Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

12

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