Dennis Atkinson September 22, 2005

Assimilated Meteorological DataAssimilated Meteorological Data

Eighth Modeling Conference Eighth Modeling Conference on Air Quality Modelson Air Quality Models

Research Triangle Park, NCResearch Triangle Park, NC

Dennis AtkinsonDennis Atkinson

September 22, 2005September 22, 2005

OutlineOutline

BackgroundBackground

Gridded Met. Data Project (CALPUFF & Gridded Met. Data Project (CALPUFF & AERMOD)AERMOD)

Gridded Met. Data WorkgroupGridded Met. Data Workgroup

New Developments in NOAA/NCEP New Developments in NOAA/NCEP ProductsProducts


~1998 – John Irwin initiated requests in EPA ~1998 – John Irwin initiated requests in EPA budget for seed money for incorporating budget for seed money for incorporating gridded meteorological data into dispersion gridded meteorological data into dispersion modelsmodels

2000 – 72000 – 7thth Modeling Conference; panel Modeling Conference; panel discussiondiscussion

2004 – Renewed interest in “Irwin’s world” 2004 – Renewed interest in “Irwin’s world” ideas, including gridded meteorological dataideas, including gridded meteorological data

Sept. 2004 – Gridded met. data project Sept. 2004 – Gridded met. data project initiated initiated


Why use gridded met. data?Why use gridded met. data?

- NWS surface and upper air sites often not co-- NWS surface and upper air sites often not co-locatedlocated

- may be more representative than distant NWS - may be more representative than distant NWS sitesite

- more data parameters to characterize the - more data parameters to characterize the atmosphereatmosphere

- state-of-the-science product (cloud physics, - state-of-the-science product (cloud physics, land/air moisture exchange, spatial density) land/air moisture exchange, spatial density)

- NOAA approved (NCEP); accepted by the - NOAA approved (NCEP); accepted by the modeling community (MM5)modeling community (MM5)


Advancement of science at EPAAdvancement of science at EPA

1.1. CAAAC (Clean Air Act AdvisoryCAAAC (Clean Air Act Advisory

Committee) – references to using more Committee) – references to using more advanced tools for air quality modeling and advanced tools for air quality modeling and pairing national/regional scale with more pairing national/regional scale with more local scale modelinglocal scale modeling

http://www.epa.gov/air/caaac/report1-17-05.pdfhttp://www.epa.gov/air/caaac/report1-17-05.pdf


Advancement of science at EPAAdvancement of science at EPA

2.2. National Academy of Science (NAS) – National Academy of Science (NAS) – suggests that models in a 4-dimensional suggests that models in a 4-dimensional data assimilation mode would provide data assimilation mode would provide superior air quality forecasts in the futuresuperior air quality forecasts in the future

http://www.nap/edu/openbook.php?http://www.nap/edu/openbook.php?record_id=10728&page=239#pagetoprecord_id=10728&page=239#pagetop


Which gridded met. product should be used?Which gridded met. product should be used?

- GFS (Global Forecast System) – used for - GFS (Global Forecast System) – used for aviation, 00 06 12 18Z (95km grid)aviation, 00 06 12 18Z (95km grid)

- ETA – regional mesoscale model, 00 06 12 18Z - ETA – regional mesoscale model, 00 06 12 18Z (12km grid) (12km grid)

- NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) – - NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) – every 3 hrs (32km grid) every 3 hrs (32km grid)

- RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) – every 3 hrs (20km)- RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) – every 3 hrs (20km) - MM5 (PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Met. Model) – - MM5 (PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Met. Model) –

available 36km, some 12/4 km domains; hourlyavailable 36km, some 12/4 km domains; hourly


Which gridded met. product should be used? Which gridded met. product should be used? (cont’d)(cont’d)

– WRF (Weather and Research Forecasting WRF (Weather and Research Forecasting Model; partnership between NCAR, NCEP, Model; partnership between NCAR, NCEP, FSL, AFWA, NRL, OU, FAA) – next generation FSL, AFWA, NRL, OU, FAA) – next generation of MM5-type model; 8km (NCEP) , HiRes of MM5-type model; 8km (NCEP) , HiRes Window forecasts Window forecasts


MM5CMAQ

CALPUFF

Regional & long-range transport scale models – use MM5 data

NWS/on-siteDispersion

Models(AERMOD)

Local-scale models -- use NWS or on-site data


MM5

CMAQCALPUFF

AERMOD

Merge Regional/Long-range T.

and local-scale models

Future vision


OAQPS Innovations Project submission -- OAQPS Innovations Project submission --

““Developing the Capacity to Convert Developing the Capacity to Convert Routinely Available Meteorological Modeling Routinely Available Meteorological Modeling Data into Inputs for Regulatory Air Quality Data into Inputs for Regulatory Air Quality Modeling Applications”….March 25Modeling Applications”….March 25thth

- funding awarded – $50K- funding awarded – $50K

Gridded Met. Data ProjectGridded Met. Data Project

GOAL: Incorporate/assess gridded met. data intoGOAL: Incorporate/assess gridded met. data into dispersion modeling worlddispersion modeling world

STEPS:STEPS:

1. Review…MM5 into CALPUFF1. Review…MM5 into CALPUFF -- currently accepts MM5 via CALMM5; soon CALRUC, CALETA -- currently accepts MM5 via CALMM5; soon CALRUC, CALETA -- educate/learn how MM5 is processed through CALPUFF to -- educate/learn how MM5 is processed through CALPUFF to

apply similar procedures to AERMODapply similar procedures to AERMOD -- run MM5 (36 and 12km) and NWS data through CALMET and -- run MM5 (36 and 12km) and NWS data through CALMET and

analyze resultsanalyze results -- run processed MM5 (36 and 12km) and NWS data through -- run processed MM5 (36 and 12km) and NWS data through

CALPUFF and analyze resultsCALPUFF and analyze results


2.2. MM5 into AERMOD MM5 into AERMOD

2-parts: 2-parts:

(1) using current variables needed by AERMET from (1) using current variables needed by AERMET from MM5 to drive AERMODMM5 to drive AERMOD

(2) utilizing additional variables available from MM5 (2) utilizing additional variables available from MM5 to improve the physics within AERMODto improve the physics within AERMOD


MM5 into AERMOD (Part 1)MM5 into AERMOD (Part 1)

-- process MM5 for a single grid cell and NWS data -- process MM5 for a single grid cell and NWS data into AERMOD (AERMOD will not be modified to into AERMOD (AERMOD will not be modified to accept more than a single grid of data)accept more than a single grid of data)

-- run AERMET using MM5 and NWS data and -- run AERMET using MM5 and NWS data and analyze resultsanalyze results

-- run AERMOD using MM5 and NWS data and -- run AERMOD using MM5 and NWS data and analyze resultsanalyze results


MM5 into AERMOD (Part 2)MM5 into AERMOD (Part 2)

-- utilize new variables available within MM5 to -- utilize new variables available within MM5 to enhance current physics by modifying enhance current physics by modifying AERMET/AERMOD, as neededAERMET/AERMOD, as needed

-- run “modified AERMET” using MM5 vs. NWS -- run “modified AERMET” using MM5 vs. NWS and analyze resultsand analyze results

-- run “modified AERMOD” using MM5 vs. NWS -- run “modified AERMOD” using MM5 vs. NWS and analyze resultsand analyze results


3.3. RUC,ETA,WRF into AERMOD,CALPUFFRUC,ETA,WRF into AERMOD,CALPUFF

-- software needed to convert RUC, ETA, WRF for input to -- software needed to convert RUC, ETA, WRF for input to AERMET and CALMET (CALRUC, CALETA coming AERMET and CALMET (CALRUC, CALETA coming soon)soon)

-- run RUC, ETA, and WRF through AERMET and -- run RUC, ETA, and WRF through AERMET and CALMET; analyze results and compare with MM5CALMET; analyze results and compare with MM5

-- run AERMOD and CALPUFF using RUC, ETA, and -- run AERMOD and CALPUFF using RUC, ETA, and WRF-driven gridded data; analyze results and compare WRF-driven gridded data; analyze results and compare with MM5with MM5


End Product – an IT tool End Product – an IT tool

– that will accept multiple gridded met. inputs that will accept multiple gridded met. inputs – process fields for compatibility (reformat) with process fields for compatibility (reformat) with

the desired air dispersion modelthe desired air dispersion model– compute fields from gridded meteorological compute fields from gridded meteorological

data needed by recipient modeldata needed by recipient model

Gridded Met. Data WorkgroupGridded Met. Data Workgroup

MembersMembers

EPA Regional OfficesEPA Regional Offices - Bret Andersen (R-VII)- Bret Andersen (R-VII) - Herman Wong (R-X)- Herman Wong (R-X)

Fisheries and Wildlife ServiceFisheries and Wildlife Service - Tim Allen- Tim Allen

StatesStates - many states- many states

Canada – British ColumbiaCanada – British Columbia - -

ActivitiesActivities

Formed in late FebruaryFormed in late February 4 productive workgroup calls; email 4 productive workgroup calls; email

exchangesexchanges Primary Focus - 7 issues related to gridded Primary Focus - 7 issues related to gridded

met. datamet. data Survey – State’s experience with gridded Survey – State’s experience with gridded

met. datamet. data

Issue #1Issue #1

Identify additional meteorological Identify additional meteorological parameters available from the gridded parameters available from the gridded output that would be useful in AERMOD.output that would be useful in AERMOD.

- Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) – AERMOD Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) – AERMOD currently uses similarity theory for CBLcurrently uses similarity theory for CBL

- Vertical velocity – potential replacement for Vertical velocity – potential replacement for convective velocity scaleconvective velocity scale

Issue #1 (cont’d)Issue #1 (cont’d)

- PBL Height – profiling is current used (for PBL Height – profiling is current used (for wind speed, wind direction, potential temp. wind speed, wind direction, potential temp. gradient, potential temp., etc.)gradient, potential temp., etc.)

- PBL regime (category, 1-4) – w/PBL heightPBL regime (category, 1-4) – w/PBL height- Surface sensible heat flux – currently usedSurface sensible heat flux – currently used- Surface latent heat flux – currently usedSurface latent heat flux – currently used- Terrain elevation – currently used; important Terrain elevation – currently used; important

to determine the dividing streamline in to determine the dividing streamline in complex terraincomplex terrain


Land-use category – caution is needed Land-use category – caution is needed when using MM5 LU information; LU is when using MM5 LU information; LU is averaged within a grid cell (and nudged), so averaged within a grid cell (and nudged), so local variations will not be captured; smaller local variations will not be captured; smaller grid scales pick up more details grid scales pick up more details

Issue #2Issue #2

Multi-grid source fields. How would a single Multi-grid source fields. How would a single met. source model handle met. data from met. source model handle met. data from multiple grid cells?multiple grid cells?

- Make multiple runs for the sources within Make multiple runs for the sources within each grid cell; add the results together in each grid cell; add the results together in space and time…labor intensive space and time…labor intensive


- Use the center grid cell for the source group.Use the center grid cell for the source group.

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Interpolation of grid cells…a interpolation scheme Interpolation of grid cells…a interpolation scheme would be necessary, i.e. requires a weighting would be necessary, i.e. requires a weighting calculation for each grid cellcalculation for each grid cell

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Issue #3Issue #3

Is on-site data necessary if grid cell data is Is on-site data necessary if grid cell data is used?used?

- On-site data captures local-scale On-site data captures local-scale phenomenon that does not get resolved by phenomenon that does not get resolved by even higher resolution gridded met. data, even higher resolution gridded met. data, such upslope/downslope winds, sea/land such upslope/downslope winds, sea/land breezes, mountainous terrain areas, etc.breezes, mountainous terrain areas, etc.


- Gridded data has been nudged to create a Gridded data has been nudged to create a flowing regime.flowing regime.

- When gridded met. data get resolved to 4km When gridded met. data get resolved to 4km or less, then this issue will probably need to or less, then this issue will probably need to be revisited. be revisited.

- On-site data is useful/necessary for the On-site data is useful/necessary for the foreseeable future.foreseeable future.

Issue #4Issue #4

Issues with “data representativeness”?Issues with “data representativeness”?

- If local (sub-grid scale) effects are important, If local (sub-grid scale) effects are important, it may be necessary to incorporate local it may be necessary to incorporate local data (NWS/on-site)data (NWS/on-site)

- Studies show the spatial resolution of MM5 Studies show the spatial resolution of MM5 is 3 to 5 times the grid spacing (4km grid is 3 to 5 times the grid spacing (4km grid can resolve features with a wavelength of can resolve features with a wavelength of 20km); WRF has a resolution of ~3X grid20km); WRF has a resolution of ~3X grid


- Sensitivity tests – necessary to compare Sensitivity tests – necessary to compare gridded met. data with traditional NWS data; gridded met. data with traditional NWS data; done NOT to prove which is better but to done NOT to prove which is better but to explain the differences explain the differences

- Number of years to be used – currently 3 Number of years to be used – currently 3 years has been used (due to data years has been used (due to data availability) for applications using gridded availability) for applications using gridded met. data…5 years should be used when met. data…5 years should be used when availableavailable


- Grid spacing requirement – lower grid Grid spacing requirement – lower grid resolution captures more local effectsresolution captures more local effects

36km - resolves met. features from 108km 36km - resolves met. features from 108km (3x) to 180km (5x) km in wavelength; (3x) to 180km (5x) km in wavelength; common with current NWS configurationscommon with current NWS configurations

12km - resolves 36km (3x) to 60km (5x)12km - resolves 36km (3x) to 60km (5x) (4km - resolves 12km (3x) to 20km (5x))(4km - resolves 12km (3x) to 20km (5x))


- Complex terrain -- western states would Complex terrain -- western states would likely need resolution of 1km to adequately likely need resolution of 1km to adequately capture the Rockies, bluffs, gorges, etc.capture the Rockies, bluffs, gorges, etc.

- Fenceline concentrations – should NWS Fenceline concentrations – should NWS data, on-site, or gridded met. data be used? data, on-site, or gridded met. data be used? …what grid resolution would capture …what grid resolution would capture sufficient detail to use for NAAQS, PSD, sufficient detail to use for NAAQS, PSD, toxics, urban, etc. modeling?toxics, urban, etc. modeling?

Issue #5Issue #5

Known shortcomings of current gridded Known shortcomings of current gridded modeling input and their impact…precip. modeling input and their impact…precip. inconsistences, lack of calms (very few), etc.inconsistences, lack of calms (very few), etc.

– Precipitation inconsistences –Precipitation inconsistences – should be cross-should be cross-checked when employing wet depositionchecked when employing wet deposition

– Fewer calms -- results…steady-state models Fewer calms -- results…steady-state models (AERMOD) will use more hours to calculate (AERMOD) will use more hours to calculate concentration estimates; could lead to higher concentration estimates; could lead to higher design concentrations design concentrations

Issue #6Issue #6

If given the choice, where would we want If given the choice, where would we want the gridded data to reside?the gridded data to reside?

- Data should be readily available, regardless Data should be readily available, regardless of its physical location; URL(s) available on of its physical location; URL(s) available on SCRAMSCRAM

- Data tools should be provided by EPAData tools should be provided by EPA

- Data for modeling should be public domainData for modeling should be public domain

Issue #7Issue #7

Logistical issues, such as computer Logistical issues, such as computer resources of users, acquisition of data, file resources of users, acquisition of data, file sizes, etc.sizes, etc.

- Dissemination of large files – use the same Dissemination of large files – use the same technique that NCEP uses…tilingtechnique that NCEP uses…tiling

- Data should be easily accessibleData should be easily accessible

Issue #7Issue #7

- All data should be public-domain data (not All data should be public-domain data (not proprietary)proprietary)

- Data portability is important; data should be Data portability is important; data should be usable by multiple models (1 atmosphere)usable by multiple models (1 atmosphere)

Gridded Met. Data SurveyGridded Met. Data Survey

20 of 50 States reporting….20 of 50 States reporting…. 3 pieces of information:3 pieces of information:

1. Gridded Met. Data used/dates1. Gridded Met. Data used/dates2. Source of data2. Source of data3. Other relevant information3. Other relevant information

12 “Some experience” , as inputs to CALPUFF12 “Some experience” , as inputs to CALPUFF 8 “No experience”8 “No experience” No response…many with no experienceNo response…many with no experience

Other Issues -- Other Issues -- ImportantImportant

EducationEducation -- many States have not used -- many States have not used gridded data; assistance in learning needed gridded data; assistance in learning needed

PartneringPartnering – on-going dialogue from – on-going dialogue from OAQPS to Regional and State offices, FWS, OAQPS to Regional and State offices, FWS, NPS, and othersNPS, and others

Availability of NCEP ProductsAvailability of NCEP Products

National Climatic Data Center – archives National Climatic Data Center – archives GFS, ETA (NAM), RUC data starting in GFS, ETA (NAM), RUC data starting in 2002 2002

NOMADS – NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System; collection of portals to data

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access.html

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access.html

Latest NOAA DevelopmentsLatest NOAA Developments

RUC…20km to 13km (June 2005)RUC…20km to 13km (June 2005)

WRF…initial storage by NCDC ~April, 2006WRF…initial storage by NCDC ~April, 2006

CLASS (Comprehensive Large Array data CLASS (Comprehensive Large Array data Stewardship System) – IT tool for archival and Stewardship System) – IT tool for archival and access to NCEP products; volume to 100 access to NCEP products; volume to 100 Petabytes by 2015Petabytes by 2015

MM5 storage by NCDC – possibility in the futureMM5 storage by NCDC – possibility in the future

Contact informationContact information

Dennis AtkinsonDennis Atkinson U.S. EPAU.S. EPA OAQPS, EMAD, AQMGOAQPS, EMAD, AQMG D243-01D243-01 Research Triangle Park, NC 27711Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

919-541-0518919-541-0518 [email protected]@epa.gov

Thank You!

Documents

Dennis Atkinson September 22, 2005