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Democracy and Democratization

Outline:

• Defining and measuring democracy• Huntington’s waves of democratization• Income and democracy• Democracy’s onward march• Democratic institutional arrangements• Conclusions

Definition of Democracy

• Formally, democracy is a political system based onfree and fair elections in a multi-party system

• Auditing democracy

• Substantive outcomes vs. procedural institutions

• Scales of democracy

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Types of Democracy1. Illiberal Democracy

- Elections, but not free and fair- Regimes deprive citizens of basic rights and freedoms

2. Formal (Procedural) Democracy- Free and fair elections, with a multi-party system anduniversal suffrage, but few other political rights exist

3. Liberal Democracy- Has all the characteristics of formal democracy- Citizens have civil rights and freedoms that are protectedby rule of law

4. Substantive Democracy- Citizens have equality of political influence andparticipation

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Huntington’s 3 Waves ofDemocracy

• 1st Long Wave (1828-1926): All major European statesswitch from monarchy to democracy=> Reversal: 1922-1942: dictatorial regimes in Europe

• 2nd Short Wave (1943-1962): Decolonization (Africa,Asia)=> Reversal (1960s-70s): Military coups in Turkey,Greece, Latin America

• 3rd Wave (1974- ): Latin America and Eastern Europe=> Will we experience a third reversal?

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Huntington’s Waves: Causesand Shortcomings

Causes:

1. Major change in international distribution of power afterWWII

2. Parallel economic development3. Snowballing or diffusion4. Prevailing Zeitgeist during periods of three waves

Shortcomings:

• Huntington uses a narrow set of parameters to define democracy

• He interprets regional variations in democratization as being theresult of “civilizational” differences

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Democracy and Income

• Modernization or Endogenous theory: Economic development bringsabout democracy

• Exogenous theory: Economic development does NOT bring aboutdemocracy, but democracy is more stable in a country economicallydeveloped

• Recent studies show that economic development both causesdemocracy (endogenous) and sustains it (exogenous)

• Income inequality does not affect the rise of a democracy

• At low levels of per capita income, democracies are less stable thanautocracies, but when income increases (threshold of $1,000 peryear), democracies become more stable than autocracies

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Policy Implications

• Democracy as discourse: as its chief promoter sinceWWII, American narratives about democracy anddemocratization are critical to understanding itsdiffusion

• Until the 1970’s, economic development was thought tobe a prerequisite for democracy promotion

• Today, facilitating free and competitive elections is themost important aspect of the US’ democracy promotion- policy is not dependent on level of economicdevelopment

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Russia: Reversal of Democracy

• Since 2000, formal democracy has eroded- no direct election of governors, electoral barraised for parties to enter parliament

• State has consolidated control over media throughdirect control or through state-owned companies

• Laws to combat “extremism” used to smotheropposition voices

• More power concentrated in the executive• Kremlin publicly denigrates democracy promotion

efforts, claiming they are a cover for Westerneconomic, political and military interests

Expanding Zones of Democracy:A Recurrent Scheme

1. Elections are rigged

2. Opposition party calls for non-violent streetdemonstrations

3. US/Western democracies provide overt and covertsupport of opposition

Examples in the former Soviet Union:- Georgia (2003): Rose revolution- Ukraine (2004): Orange revolution- Kyrgyzstan (2006): Tulip revolution- Belarus (2006): Potato Revolution

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Ukraine: Between Chaos and Cosmos

2004 Presidential Election 2006 Parliamentary Elections

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Poland: An Imperial Palimpsest

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Institutional Arrangements

• To remain stable, states may requirepolitical arrangements beyond freeand fair elections:

• Consociationalism• Federalism• Party power-sharing

Conclusions• Democracy is a political regime which historically has

shown a cyclical trend

• Democracy includes a number of variables that are oftennot captured in a single data set and occurs at manydifferent scales other than the state level

• It is important to recognize the differences betweenprocedural and substantive definitions of democracy andthe policy implications of both

• There is a positive correlation between income anddemocracy

• States can require different institutional arrangements toremain stable and democratic