1

DEMAND MODELING APPROACHFOR ENERGY SERVICES

MODELING COLLOQUIUM31 JULY 2012

Dr R MaserumuleDemand Modeling Specialist

Department of Energy

Energy Demand in South Africa

2

Industry37%

Com-mercial

8%

Transport29%

Agricul-ture2%

Non-specified

6%

Residen-tial

18%

Percentage of Total Consump-tion

Renewables & Waste

33%

Coal37%

Electricity25%

Petroleum Products5%

Residential Usage

Cooking25%

Water Heat-ing

30%Space Heating25%

Lighting15%

Electrical Appliances5%

Residential Usage

This what we collect

This what we need

for the IEP

3

South African Context

• Studies on end use once off– Institute Energy Studies (Early 1990’s)– Eskom (2012)– Department of Energy (2009, 2012)

4

Three Basic Approaches to Forecasting

• Judgmental: Obtained by asking a group of experts about the behavior of the population.

• Econometric: Obtained by analysing the time series of historical population

• Engineering: Obtained through small scale studies of a controlled population

Hybrid ApproachPhase One: Engineering- Use existing studies on

the use of energy carriers for end use services (Institute for Energy

Studies 1993, Frost & Sullivan 2012,

Department of Energy 2012)

Phase Two: Econometric-Project the demand for

each energy carrier using historical data (DoE-

Energy Balances, Eskom-Electricity Sales)

6

Hybrid ApproachPhase One: Engineering- Use

existing studies on the use of energy carriers for end use services

(Institute for Energy Studies 1993, Frost & Sullivan 2012, Department

of Energy 2012)

7

8

Gas; 37721; 12%Coal; 182119; 60%

Electricity; 83965; 28%

HVAC; 2518.95; 1%

Fans; 5037.9

; 2%

Process Heat; 252586.35; 83%

Lighting; 3358.6; 1%Motors; 33586; 11%

Com-pres-sor;

6717.2; 2%

Process Heat39%

HVAC3%

Compressors8%

Motors40%

Lighting4%

Fans6%

Electricity End Use (83695 PJ) Total Energy

Services (303805 TJ)

Total Energy Carriers

(303805 TJ)

Gas End Use(37721 TJ)

Process Heat

100%

Coal End Use(182119 TJ)

Process Heat

100%

Overview of Demand Models (112)Sector Number of Demand Models

Residential (4 sub sectors)•Low Income Non-electrified•Low Income Electrified•Middle Income Electrified•High Income Electrified

22 demand models

Commercial 6 demand models

Industrial (9 sub sectors)•Iron and Steel•Basic Chemicals•Non-ferrous Metals•Rest of Basic Metals•Gold Mining•Coal Mining•Platinum Mining•Other Mining•Rest of Manufacturing

72 demand models

Agriculture 9 demand models

Transport 3 demand models

9

Opportunities for Collaboration

• Continuous detailed sector studies on end use– Measure carbon footprint– Opportunities for deploying energy efficiency

interventions

10

Hybrid Approach

Phase Two: Econometric-Project the demand for each energy carrier

using historical data (DoE-Energy Balances, Eskom-Electricity Sales)

11

Bottom Up ApproachSector/Sub Sector Activity Variable

Residential Total number of households

Commercial Commercial floor space

Agriculture Tons of agricultural output

Iron and Steel Tons of iron and steel

Chemical Tons of chemical

Non-ferrous Metals Tons of non-ferrous metals

Rest of Basic Metals Tons of output for the remaining metals

Gold Mining Tons of gold

Platinum Mining Tons of platinum

Other Mining Tons of other mining output

Rest of Manufacturing Tons of production for total manufacturing

12

Opportunities for Collaboration• Common dataset for historical energy

consumption– DoE energy balances– Eskom electricity sales– Other data sets

• Common dataset for macroeconomic data• GDP growth• Activity variables

– Population (total number of households)– Physical Production (tons of coal, tons of gold)

13

THANK YOU

14