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Decision Making: Not as Easy as One Thinks
The Power and Problem of Groups and Groupthink
09/25/14
The Art and Science of Decision Making
May 8, 2014
Noel Tichy & Warren BennisOctober, 2007
Making Judgment Calls
The ultimate act of leadership
A leader’s most important role in any organizations is making good judgments.
p. 94
“. . . half the decisions made in business and related organizations fail”
(p. 3)
A twenty-year study of 400 decisions
2002
Not because of poor planning, but rather poor thinking!
86-100 billion neurons&
60-100 trillion connections
For the average adult, the brain can• read 300 wpm, •listen to 450 wpm, •speak up to 180 wpm
and instantaneously construct meaning and generate insights from a string of symbols that makes communication possible.
(Ley & Chang, 2008)
The mind is easily tricked . . .
The mind is easily tricked . . .
The mind is makes up things . . .
FAEFundamental Attribution
Error
While the brain can process information and make inferences at tremendous rates, it has at least two limitations when it comes to making decisions.
1.The brain is self-referencing. – The brain relies on itself to make inferences and judgments. As a result, biases, expectations, experiences, and values knowingly and unknowingly shape perceptions.
2. All knowledge is bounded. The brain is incapable of omniscience.
As a result, we are stuck with our own interpretation of the data when making knowledge claims and rendering decisions
Extensive research from cognitive psychology indicates humans are inherently flawed and biased information processers.
(Avolio and Gardner, 2005, p. 317).
~50% saw the unexpected event.
(Simons and Chabris, 1999)
60 plus sources of interference
1. Failure to listen2. Inattentional blindness / Bounded awareness3. Overreliance on what is available4. Overreliance on what is representative5. Misleading anchors6. Hindsight bias7. Non-rational escalation of commitment
Be an expert on what is shaping the inference.
Be more systematic in gathering and evaluating relevant data
Assume alternative perspectives
Ask the why and why not – keeps it ethical
Educate your instincts*
“Go with your gut.” “Follow your intuition.” “Trust your feelings, Luke.” We’ve all heard the sayings. But do your instincts make good decisions?
*From Fortune Magazine, June 27, 2005 pg. 102
It depends – some guts are better educated
Heart – 40,000 neuronsGut – 100 million neurons
Think Twice: How the Gut's "Second Brain" Influences Mood and Well-Being
The emerging and surprising view of how the enteric nervous system in our bellies goes far beyond just processing the food we eat
Feb 12, 2010|By Adam Hadhazy
. . . . every a judgment requires a judgment call on what type of judgment to make.
Social dynamics influence individual decisions and behavior
We are not as independent thinkers as we think we are!
• supervised the deportation of 6,000,000 Jews to Nazi gas chambers
I was doing my job!
A highly decorated public administrator
The Influence of the Group on Decision Making
09/25/14
Ethical Decision Making
November 13
4 Scenarios
4 to 5 minutes on each
Social Capital
A Pillar of Trust and High Performance
September 19, 2014
Decision Making: Not as Easy as One Thinks
The Power and Problem of Groups and Groupthink
09/25/14
The Urn Game• Review contents of two urns (pitchers).
o Urn W: Two white balls and one yellow ballo Urn Y: Two yellow balls and one white ball
• Select an urn with a coin flip.• Select two participants from each table.• Participants see one ball from the urn and review
the list of previous guesses.• Participants identify the color of the ball they
selected from the urn.• Each participant guesses either Urn W or Urn Y.
Source: Professor David McAdams
Groupthink (Janis)
Defined: “A mode of thinking involving a cohesive group in which the members’ striving for unanimity overrides their motivation to appraise realistically alternative courses of action.” (Viotti and Kauppi)
Groupthink (Janis)• Symptoms of Groupthink
o Type I: Overestimation of the group• Illusion of invulnerability
• Belief in inherent morality of the group
o Type II: Close-mindedness• Collective rationalization
• Stereotyped views of out-groups
Groupthink (Janis)o Type III: Pressures towards uniformity
• Self-censorship
• Illusion of unanimity
• Direct pressure on dissenters
• Self-appointed ‘mindguards’
• Consequence: Low probability of success
Groupthink (Janis)• Example: Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961
o Overview
o Symptoms• Illusion of invulnerability
• Illusion of unanimity
“Our meetings took place in a curious atmosphere of assumed consensus” (Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.)
Groupthink (Janis)• Example: Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961
o Overview
o Symptoms• Illusion of invulnerability
• Illusion of unanimity
• Self-censorship
“In the months after the Bay of Pigs I bitterly reproached myself for having kept so silent during those crucial discussions in the Cabinet Room, though my feelings of guilt were tempered by the knowledge that a course of objection would have accomplished little save to gain me a name as a nuisance. I can only explain my failure to do more than raise a few timid questions by reporting that one’s impulse to blow the whistle on this nonsense was simply undone by the circumstances of the discussion.” (Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.)
Groupthink (Janis)• Example: Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961
o Overview
o Symptoms• Illusion of invulnerability
• Illusion of unanimity
• Self-censorship
• Self-appointed ‘mindguards’
“You may be right or you may be wrong, but the President has made his mind up. Don’t push him any further. Now is the time for everyone to help him all they can.” (Attorney General Robert Kennedy)
Groupthink (Janis)• Possible remedies
o Encourage discussion within the group
o Assign the role of “critical evaluator” to every member
o Avoid stating their preferences at the beginning of the process
o Invite one or more outside experts to each meeting
o Ask at least one member to play the role of devil’s advocate
Ethical Decision Making: Deceiving Ourselves
Why Do Good People Do Bad Things?
November 13
