DEALING WITH PROJECTS IN A VUCA WORLD · DEALING WITH PROJECTS IN A VUCA WORLD Presented by: Bob Mittelsdorf BSc, MBA SPMI Regional Conference 2016 11 March 2016

DEALING WITH

PROJECTS IN A

VUCA WORLD Presented by: Bob Mittelsdorf BSc, MBA

SPMI Regional Conference 2016

11 March 2016

Bob Mittelsdorf, BSc, MBA

Studied Architecture at Kent State University, Ohio, USA

BSc, University of the State of New York

MBA, National University of Singapore

Masters Certificate in Project Management, George Washington University

30+ years experience in the management of large construction projects in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Macau and Taiwan

Clients who have benefited from Bob’s views on how to deal with the complexities of project management include: ABB, ARAMCO, BASF, BeiHang University (Beijing), BP, CAAS, Guinness Anchor Brewery, Honeywell, HP, Intel, Jurong Engineering Limited, Jurong Town Corporation, Kingsmen, KPC/KNPC, M+W, Maxis, Microsoft, MMHE, Motorola, NCR/Teradata, Otis Elevators, P&G, Petrodar, Qatar Gas, SAP, Shell, Singapore MinDef, Singapore Tourism Board, SingTel, Sun Microsystems, Syngenta, Tongji University (Shanghai), the United States Air Force, the United States Marine Corp Community Services, Volkswagen, Zamil Steel, and many others.

2 Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Contents

1. What is V.U.C.A.?

2. The Relationship Between VUCA and Risk

3. Dealing with VUCA

Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’

Bas de Baat’s Key Actions


What is VUCA?

4

Volatility

the propensity for changing from one

state to another.

the rate, amount, and magnitude of

change.


Uncertainty

the lack of specific information.

the amount of unpredictability

inherent in issues and events.


Complexity

the number of components and

relationships between components in

a system.

the amount of dependency and

interactive effect of multiple factors

and drivers.


Ambiguity

situations or information that can be

interpreted in different ways.

the degree to which information,

situations, and events can be

interpreted in multiple ways


Am

big

uity

“R

ela

tivity”

M. C

. Es

cher

1953 L

itho

gra

ph


Am

big

uity


VUCA Impact

Volatility Can create fear, risk-aversion and a

‘circle-the-wagons’ mentality.

Uncertainty

Can create futile efforts on excessive data

gathering and analysis, plus a tendency to

invest excessively (bullet proofing).

Complexity

Can create a desire to look for black and

white solutions that are often erroneous, or

scapegoats to blame.

Ambiguity Can induces doubt, distrust and hesitancy;

can impede decision-making and change.


VUCA Prime

Volatility Vision a clear statement of where

an organization is headed.

Uncertainty Understanding the deliberate ability to

“stop, look, and listen.”

Complexity Clarity the deliberate effort to make

“sense of the chaos.”

Ambiguity Agility

the ability to communicate

with people and across

organizations instantly, and

to move quickly in applying

solutions.

Johansen,

Bob.

Get

There

Early


The Relationship Between VUCA and Risk

13

A VUCA Interpretation of Risk

In a project environment, risks are due to:

Volatilities (rapidly or continuously changing conditions),

Uncertainties (lack of information or unpredictable

conditions),

Complexities (the number of stakeholders and the

number of interactions), and

Ambiguities (the different plausible interpretations of

available information).


Risk Management Process & VUCA

Risk

Identification

Reduces ambiguity by clear

definition in the description of

the risk events.

Risk Analysis

Reduces uncertainty in

probability and impact of the

risk events.

Risk

Prioritization

Brings clarity to the myriad of

risk events.


• Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’

• Bas de Baat’s Key Actions

Dealing with VUCA

16

Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’ as

they apply to project managers

facing the VUCA world.

Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’

17

10 Leadership ‘Skills’ for PMs

1. Maker Instinct

2. Clarity

3. Dilemma Flipping

4. Immersive Learning Ability

5. Bio-Empathy

6. Constructive Depolarizing

7. Quiet Transparency

8. Rapid Prototyping

9. Smart-Mob Organizing

10. Commons Creating

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen


Exploiting your inner drive to build and

grow things.

1. Maker Instinct

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

19

Maker Instinct

PMs should use their maker instinct by sharing

what they make and inspire others to

contribute and succeed.

They should have a commitment to build and

grow ideas, connecting this energy with others.

PMs should use this skill to make (and remake)

project teams, applying their curiosity about

how things work to improve them.


Maker Instinct

PMs need both a can-do and a can-make spirit.

The maker instinct separates leaders from the

powerless.

It isn’t about being “arty”, it is about creating

or growing a new thing – whatever that is.

PMs must be very clear about what they are

doing, but be flexible about how it gets done.


Seeing through confusion and

contradiction. PMs must be very clear

about what they are doing

2. Clarity

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

22

Plans

Everybody has a plan until

they get hit. Then, like a rat,

they stop in fear and freeze.

- Mike Tyson


Clarity vs. Certainty

Clarity Certainty

Includes curiosity about other

points of view.

Does not consider other points

of view as having any merit or

value.

Includes knowing what it is that

you don’t know, and trying to

do something about it.

Does not think about what is

not known, nor considers it

needed.

Is expressed in narratives and

stories.

Is expressed in rules and

absolute shalls.

Is resilient. Is brittle.


Clarity vs. Certainty

More important than the

quest for certainty is the

quest for clarity.

- Francois Gautier


Commander’s Intent

“The commander's intent describes the desired

end state. It is a concise expression of the

purpose of the operation and must be

understood two echelons below the issuing

commander. . . It is the single unifying focus for

all subordinate elements. Its purpose is to focus

subordinates on the desired end state … on

what has to be accomplished in order to

achieve success, even when the plan and

concept of operations no longer apply…”

Headquart

ers

Depart

ment

of

the A

rmy.

Fie

ld M

anual 100-5

.


Plans

Plans are worthless, but

planning is everything.

- Dwight D Eisenhower


“Alic

e m

eets

the C

heshire C

at”

,

by:

John T

ennie

l

“Cheshire Puss”, said Alice, rather timidly, “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.

“I don't much care where,” said Alice.

“Then it doesn't matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

“--- so long as I get SOMEWHERE”, Alice added as an explanation.

“Oh, you’re sure to do that”, said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough”.


Turning a dilemma into an advantage or

opportunity.

3. Dilemma Flipping

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

29

Dilemmas

The test of a first-rate intelligence is to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.

- F. SCOTT FITZGERALD


Problems vs. Dilemmas

We are moving from a world of problems, which demand speed, analysis, and elimination of uncertainty to solve, to a world of dilemmas, which demand patience, sense-making, and an engagement of uncertainty.

- Denise Caron, Transformative Technology Consultant


Dilemma: a VUCA Concept

A dilemma is a problem that cannot be solved and

will not go away.

Dilemma “flipping” is the ability to turn dilemmas

into advantages and opportunities.

Characteristics of a dilemma:

Johansen,

Bob.

Get

There

Early

Unsolvable Confusing

Recurrent Puzzling

Complex and messy Threatening

Potentially positive


Dilemma Flipping

You must be able to deal with the process of

puzzling, not just putting the puzzle pieces

together.


3 Steps for Dilemma Flipping

1. If you are not sure if it’s a dilemma or a problem, assume it’s a dilemma.

2. Immerse yourself in the dilemma.

3. Explore different ways to turn (“flip”) it to a more positive direction.

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen


Proactive vs. Reactive

REACTIVE

CREATIVE x


Six Dilemma Flipping Techniques

1. Stand in different places.

2. Use the lenses of other

domains.

3. Ask powerful questions.

After:

The L

eader’s E

dge:

Six

Cre

ative C

om

pete

ncie

s f

or

Navig

ating C

om

ple

x C

halle

nges.

Charles P

alu

s &

David

Hort

h


Six Dilemma Flipping Techniques

4. Foster new knowledge.

5. Create an innovation journal.

6. Change the pace of attention.

After:

The L

eader’s E

dge:

Six

Cre

ative C

om

pete

ncie

s f

or

Navig

ating C

om

ple

x C

halle

nges.

Charles P

alu

s &

David

Hort

h


Immersion in an unfamiliar environment to

learn in a first-person way.

4. Immersive Learning Ability

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

38

Gaming and Simulations

Gaming and simulations enable learning.

They date back to 1957 to the Rand

Corporation.

Allow practice in a non-threatening

environment, and experimentation.

Can be used to demonstrate concepts, and

generate different perspectives.


Modeling Examples

Earthquake performance simulation

Models of buildings

Atmospheric models for weather forecasting

Climate models to predict climate change

Agent-based modelling to simulate social

interactions in artificial Intelligence


Models

Essentially, all models are

wrong, but some are useful.

- George Edward Pelham Box


Seeing things from nature’s point of view.

Understanding, respecting, and learning

from its patterns.

5. Bio-Empathy

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

42

Nature is Frugal

Nature is frugal. Of all the possible rules that could be used to govern interactions among agents … nature … uses the simplest. More than that, the same rules are repeatedly used in very different places.

- Gary William Flake The C

om

puta

tion B

eauty

of

Natu

re:

Com

pute

r

Explo

rations o

f F

racta

ls,

Chaos,

Com

ple

x

Syste

ms a

nd A

dapta

tion,

Gary

Will

iam

Fla

ke


Frugality

Frugality is the quality of being sparing, thrifty,

prudent or economical in the use and

consumption of resources.

Avoiding waste, lavishness or extravagance.

It’s not about being cheap, but conserving and

wisely using resources. This sometimes means

spending more now to save money in the long

run.


Why Do We Do Projects?

Projects are done to create or preserve VALUE.

CONTRACTORS carry out projects as a means of

generating REVENUE directly: do the job get paid.

DEVELOPERS (and many others) carry out projects as

a means of generating REVENUE indirectly: do the job

create something to sell sell it get paid

Some types of projects are even more indirect: do the

job improve the way the organization works save

money

What about other types of “value”?

How do we measure “intrinsic” value? 45

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Calming tense situations where differences

dominate and communication has broken

down.

Bringing people from divergent cultures

together towards positive engagement.

6. Constructive Depolarizing

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

46

Dilemma or Conflict?


Sources of Conflict on Projects

Organizational:

Functional vs. project structures

Status and authority of staff, functional managers and PM’s

Competition over resources

Communication needs

Team:

Schedules

Priorities

Administrative procedures

Technical recommendations

Resources Individual: Goals Values Methods


Conflict & Organizational Effectiveness

L e v

e l

o f

C o

n f l

i c t

Organizational

Effect

H i g

h

L o w

Apathy Chaos

Productivity


Pivotal Thinking

Divergent Thinking - Generates ideas by

exploring many possible solutions. Typically

spontaneous, free-flowing, and 'non-linear‘.

Many possible solutions are explored and

unexpected connections are drawn.

Cognitive Thinking - Follows logical steps to

arrive at one solution, which in some cases is a

‘correct’ solution.


Divergent vs. Cognitive Thinking

Divergent Thinking Cognitive Thinking


Being open and authentic about what

matters, while not being overly self-

promoting.

7. Quiet Transparency

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

52

Command-and-Control vs. Commander’s Intent

“Command-and-control” style of leadership

operates on a “need-to-know” basis.

“Commander’s intent” style of leadership

requires clarity about desired outcome, but

flexibility about methods to achieve it.


Delegation Difficulties

We want to remain comfortable, making the

same decisions we have always made.

We believe we can do a better job ourselves.

We don't want to risk losing any power and

stature (ironically, we can lose these if we don't

learn to delegate effectively).

We don't want to risk giving authority to

subordinates in case they fail and impair the

project.


Humility

Success as a Navy SEAL leader requires

recognizing that you don‘t have the solution

to every problem.

Fail to recognize that, and you're likely to fall

flat on your face and fail.

After:

Extr

em

e O

wners

hip

: H

ow

U.S

. N

avy S

EA

Ls

Lead a

nd W

in,

Jacko W

illin

k &

Leif B

abin


Attitudes That Defeat Good Decisions

Failure to recognise a problem (or dilemma) and

acknowledge an issue.

Attitude that anyone who says anything else is

wrong and need to be corrected.

Defensive mode: justifying, explaining and

defending rather than listening to what others are

saying.

Inability to change even in the face of evidence

showing the decision is wrong.


The ability to create quick, early versions

of innovations, with the expectation that

later successes will require early failures.

8. Rapid Prototyping

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

57

Rapid Prototyping

Prototypes provide a way to get an idea in front of potential end-users and key stakeholders.

Getting it out of the designer's head and into a demonstrable format minimizes initial shortcomings and misplaced design assumptions.

What and how to mock up depends on the product or service, the questions to be answered, and resources available.

Effective results can be obtained from various levels of fidelity.


"Fail Fast, Fail Early, Fail Often"

Thomas Edison failed thousands of times in his search for the correct filament for the light bulb.

Kleenex tissues were originally created to help women remove make-up.

WD40’s name comes from the number of attempts to get the water displacement formula correct.

Post-It notes used a failed formula for a super-strong adhesive that came out as a "low-tack", reusable, pressure-sensitive adhesive.


Creating, engaging with, and nurturing

purposeful business or social change

networks.

9. Smart-Mob Organizing

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

60

Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

- George Santayana


Whether an organization has a single Project Manager managing one project, or a group of PM’s who manage multiple projects, the value of capturing lessons-learned and sharing them must not be underestimated.

Learning From Our Mistakes


What is a PM-COP?

A community of practice is a self-improvement

group in an organization, and could be likened

to an internal professional association

A PM-COP consists of project managers from

across an entire organization


What does a PM-COP do?

Determines the critical learning needs for the PM’s in an organization

Formalizes solutions that are most useful for the practitioners

Actions and solutions could include:

• Message boards or other communication databases

• Skill-improvement meetings

• Repositories for tools, templates, best practices, etc.

• Recommendations for PM process improvements

• Coaching or mentoring programs


Seeding, nurturing and growing shared

assets that benefit everyone while allowing

healthy competition at a higher level.

10. Commons Creating

After:

Leaders

Make t

he F

utu

re,

Bob J

ohansen

65

"Commons"

Based on the English legal concept of common

land.

Common land was owned collectively, by a

legal entity, the crown or a single person. It

was subject to different forms of regulated

usage: grazing of livestock, hunting, etc.

In modern economic theory it refers to cultural

and natural resources accessible to all.


What is “Commons Creating”

This seminar is an excellent example of

“commons creating”.

The information shared will help to grow the

project management community, not just

benefit the individual or organization.

In helping grow the community, the individuals

will also benefit.


Key actions PMs should be taking when

you have the responsibility to deliver a

project or business initiative.

Bas de Baat’s Key Actions

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e

68

Vision

Understand the organization's vision.

Check alignment of vision with the project’s

goals and strategy.

Work with stakeholders to clarify and

eliminate any discordance.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Vision

Develop a clear scope statement that

identifies the deliverables and how they meet

project and business goals and objectives.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Understanding

Identify and understand the internal and

external forces that can cause turbulence to

your project.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Understanding

Initiate and maintain a robust risk

management process.

Ensure that all project team members

understand their roles and responsibilities.

Keep it practical and realistic, but make sure

it gets used. After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Clarity

Enlist the aid of SMEs in areas where the

VUCA pressures are high.

Leverage their knowledge and experience to

identify risks and issues.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Clarity

Use tools, techniques, methods, and standards

that are robust, yet flexible enough to

accommodate any change in approach.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Clarity

Deal resolutely with forces that are in your

scope of control and can create unnecessary

“sworl”.

Understand the forces that exacerbate chaos.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Agility

Communicate with both internal and external

stakeholders on a regular basis.

Update them on the vision, goals, strategy,

plan and status of the project.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e


Agility

Strive to be "ahead of the curve" and always

be alert.

Have alternative strategies and contingency

plans ready to deploy, if needed.

After:

Bas d

e B

aat, “

How

to lead a

pro

ject

in a

VU

CA

environm

ent...”

Lin

kedIn

Puls

e



email: [email protected]


Bibliography

1. de Baat, Bas, “How to lead a project in a VUCA

environment...” LinkedIn Pulse, 28 November 2014

2. Flake, Gary William, The Computation Beauty of Nature:

Computer Explorations of Fractals, Chaos, Complex Systems and

Adaptation, A Bradford Book, 1998

3. Gleik, James, CHAOS: Making a New Science, Abacus, 1993

4. Headquarters Department of the Army. Field Manual 100-5.

Washington, DC, 14 June 1993

5. Johansen, Bob. Get There Early. San Francisco, CA. Berrett-

Koehler Publishers, 2007.


Bibliography

6. Johansen, Bob. Leaders Make the Future. San Francisco, CA.

Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2012.

7. Kepner, Charles H. & Tregoe, Benjamin B., The New Rational

Manager, Princeton Research Press, 1981

7. Krupp, Steven & Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Winning the Long

Game, Public Affairs, 2014

8. Lewis, James P., Project Planning Scheduling & Control. New

York, NY. McGraw-Hill, 2001

9. Longman, Andrew & Mullins, Jim, The Rational Project

Manager, John Wiley & Sons, 2005


Bibliography

10. Palus, Charles J. & Horth, David M., The Leader’s Edge: Six

Creative Competencies for Navigating Complex Challenges.

San Francisco, CA. Jossey-Bass and The Center for Creative

Leadership, 2002.

11. Pascale, Richard T., Millemann, Mark & Gioja, Linda, Surfing

the Edge of Chaos: The Laws of Nature and the New Laws of

Business, Crown Business, 2001

12. Schar, Mark, “Pivot Thinking and the Differential Sharing of

Information Within New Product Development Teams”,

Doctoral dissertation Stamford University, 2011


Bibliography

13. Skaug, Ingar, “Breaking Free in Turbulent Times - The

Intersection of Turbulence, Innovation and Leadership:

Unleashing Creativity and Driving Positive Change”, Business

Leadership Review, IV:III, Association of MBAs, July 2007

14. Ward, J. LeRoy. Dictionary of Project Management Terms.

Arlington, VA. ESI International, 2008.

15. Willink, Jacko, & Babin, Leif, Extreme Ownership: How U.S.

Navy SEALs Lead and Win, St. Martin's Press, 2015


Questions & Answers About VUCA

Q: Isn’t dealing with VUCA just the same as risk

management?

A: No. VUCA is like risk on steroids.


Questions & Answers About VUCA

Q: Is VUCA an new phenomena?

A: No. The term VUCA originated in the 1990s at the

US Army War College, leaders (and project

managers) have always faced these problems.

Building the Pyramids of Egypt and the Great Wall

of China, Admiral Zheng He’s voyages, and

countless other historical undertakings also faced

volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.


Documents

DEALING WITH PROJECTS IN A VUCA WORLD · DEALING WITH PROJECTS IN A VUCA WORLD Presented by: Bob Mittelsdorf BSc, MBA SPMI Regional Conference 2016 11 March 2016