1. Projection for Fish Supply and Demand in Indonesia Tran Van
Nhuong Chan Chin Yee
2. Indonesia Datasets Model was used to generate baseline
projections from 2012 to 2030 Variables for aggregated (national)
and disaggregated (by fish group) data: Fish price Fish production
(capture and aquaculture) Fish consumption (rural and urban) Fish
exports Fish imports Results were one period (a year) and multi
period
3. Supply Match Demand Environment (Category) Fish Type Fish
Type Fish Type Capture Marine Tuna Tuna Tuna Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp
Grouper Grouper Grouper Other Other Other Inland Carps Carps Carps
Tilapia Tilapia Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish
(Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish
(Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Other Aquaculture Brackish water
Shrimp Milkfish Milkfish Milkfish Tilapia Grouper Other Fresh water
Carps Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Other
Processed Fish
4. 2012 Production of Fresh Fish Environment (Category) Fish
Type Capture (64.8%) Marine (60.4%) Tuna, Shrimp, Grouper, Other
Inland (4.4%) Carps, Tilapia, Shrimp, Catfish (Batracus), Catfish
(Pengasius), Other Aquaculture (35.2%) Brackish water (11.6%)
Shrimp, Milkfish, Tilapia, Grouper, Other Fresh water (23.6%)
Carps, Tilapia, Shrimp, Catfish (Batracus), Catfish (Pengasius),
Other
5. Sources of data Marine and Fisheries Statistics 2012 Central
Bureau of Statistics National Bureau of Planning FAO COMTRADE
Personal Communication
7. Baseline Scenario: Projected aggregate quantity of fresh
fish, 2012-2030 Annual growth rate 2.5% 2.3% million kg Year
8. Baseline Scenario: Projected aggregate value of fresh fish,
2012-2030 Billion Rupiah 1 USD equivalent to ~13 Thousands Rupiah
Year
9. million kg Baseline Scenario: Projected aggregate output of
fresh fish by production system, 2012-2030 Annual growth rate 2.5%
3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 1.8% Year Total fresh fish output of Indonesia will
expand by an average of 2.5% Capture fisheries output will grow
faster than aquaculture
10. Million kg Baseline Scenario: Projected fresh fish output
by fish type, 2012-2030 Year
11. Baseline Scenario: Projected annual growth rate of output
by fish type, 2012-2030 % Fish Type Total fresh fish output will
rise by 2.5% Fastest growing fish type is Grouper, follow by Tuna
Slowest growing fish type is Betracus, follow by Pengasius
12. Baseline Scenario: Projected regional per capita fish
consumption, 2012-2030 Kg/person Annual growth rate 4.6% Annual
growth rate -5.4% Year
13. Thousand Rupiah/kg Baseline Scenario: Projected producer
price by fish type, 2012-2030 Year 1 USD equivalent to ~13
Thousands Rupiah
14. Baseline Scenario: Projected annual growth rate of producer
price by fish type, 2012-2030 % Fish type Fastest growing price is
Tilapia Slowest growing price is shrimp
15. Alternative Scenario: Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp
export price in year 2016 Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture
fisheries production in year 2016 Impacts on growth rate by
scenario, (deviation from baseline, %) %
16. Alternative Scenario: Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp
export price in year 2016 Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture
fisheries production in year 2016 Impacts on growth rate of output
by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %) %
17. Thank You
18. Supply Match Demand Environment (Category) Fish Type Fish
Type Fish Type Capture Marine Tuna Tuna Tuna Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp
Grouper Grouper Grouper Other Other Other Inland Carps Carps Carps
Tilapia Tilapia Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish
(Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish
(Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Other Aquaculture Brackish water
Shrimp Milkfish Milkfish Milkfish Tilapia Grouper Other Fresh water
Carps Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Other
Processed Fish
19. Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the
Multi-period Model Growth of population, % Region Value Source or
basis Rural 1.49 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Urban
1.49 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Growth of price index
for non-food expenditures, % Region Value Source or basis Rural
1.84 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000- 2012) Urban 1.84 Central
Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Growth of income, % Region Value
Source or basis Rural 14.40 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000
2012) Urban 14.40 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012)
20. Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the
Multi-period Model (cont) Growth of domestic price of inputs to
fish farming/harvest, % Growth of per capita spending on non-fish
food, % Region Value Source or basis Rural 3.54 Bappenas, Growth of
Consumption, See RPJMN 2015 2019 Urban 5.61 Bappenas, Growth of
Consumption, See RPJMN 2015 2019 Input Value Source or basis Labor
9.46 Average of Minimum Wage Rate on Small Industry, 2000 2012 Fuel
1.17 Bappenas 2016-2019 Fertilizer 1.51 Panelkanas Research Seed
0.70 Panelkanas Research Feed 1.61 Panelkanas Research
21. Growth of export of prices, % Growth of import prices, %
Fish type Value Source or basis Tuna 15.00 Combine the FishStatPlus
datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Shrimp 17.41 Combine the
FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Catfish
Pengasius 0.10 Imposed (No Figure) Other 2.67 Combine the
FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Processed
1.36 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN)
2003-2012 Fish type/group Value Source or basis Tuna 9.82 Combine
the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Shrimp
-1.34 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN)
2003-2012 Milkfish 2.52 Personal Communication to the person in
charge in MMAF Catfish Betracus 1.86 Personal Communication to the
person in charge in MMAF CatfishPengasius 3.19 Personal
Communication to the person in charge in MMAF Carps 11.86 Combine
the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Tilapia
5.69 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF Other
8.81 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN)
2003-2012 Grouper 3.62 Personal Communication to the person in
charge in MMAF Processed 8.53 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets
(FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Assumption: Growth Rate of
Exogenous Variables for the Multi-period Model (cont)
22. Growth of prices of all non-fish food expenditures, % Input
by region Value Source or basis Rural Rice 11.64 Central Bureau of
Statistics 2000 - 2012 Meats 5.01 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008
- 2012 Vegetables 2.90 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Prepared food and beverages 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008
- 2012 Tobacco 6.66 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012 Other
food 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Urban Rice 11.64
Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012 Meats 5.01 Central Bureau
of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Vegetables 2.90 Central Bureau of
Statistics 2008 - 2012 Prepared food and beverages 5.68 Central
Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Tobacco 6.66 Central Bureau of
Statistics 2000 - 2012 Other food 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics
2008 - 2012 Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the
Multi-period Model (cont)
23. Alternative Scenario: Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp
export price in year 2016 Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture
fisheries production in year 2016 Impacts on growth rate of output
by fish type by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %) %