© 2012 Skip Reedy

“Cruise Control for Projects”

Skip Reedy

Critical Chain Project Management

Theory of Constraints JonahTOCICO Certified Critical Chain Project Management 1

© 2012 Skip Reedy

2

“There is no reliable way

to measure project status

until it’s too late.”

Standish Group

“Chaos Report”

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Theory of Constraints

Every system has something that limits it.If you identify the system constraint and help it,

you get more output from the system.

The constraint of a project is the Critical Chain.

Help it to get done faster and the project gets done faster.

Dr Eli Goldratt

Critical Chain Project Management

3

This kink is the constraint of this simple system.

© 2012 Skip Reedy

A GUIDE TO THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE Chapter 6 – Project Time Management

Critical Path Method(CPM)

2 + pages

Critical Chain Project

Management(CCPM)

1 + pages

PMI

4

© 2012 Skip Reedy

comment on PMI CCPM forum

"Critical chain is crazy.

It is based on an assumption that we consistently over estimate durations.

My experience is that we typically under estimate durations … then [Critical Chain says to] arbitrarily reduce durations to comply with critical chain thinking …”

5

© 2012 Skip Reedy

What is a Project?

“A project is a combination of dependent events and statistical fluctuations,

convoluted by human behavior and purported to accomplish a goal.”

6

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Task estimates are needed to plan a project.The estimates together determine the project length.

A B C D

How long will a project take?

Project managers want their tasks to be on time, because if the tasks are on time, their projects will be on time.

7

Statistical Fluctuations

© 2012 Skip Reedy

How long does it take to Catch a Fish?

8

At Pike Place Market in Seattle?

Estimating

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Test your estimating skill!

9

Estimating a task with little information or experience.Write your estimates on the handout page.

1 How long will it take a horse and rider to travel 20 miles cross country?

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Occ

urre

nces

Duration Estimate

On-time Probability

Variation in TasksLe

ave

Hom

e

010

Commute to Downtown

50% 90%

50 100 120Minutes25 75

60

An

Imaginary

Curve

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected5 days 10 days 20 days 11

Duration Estimates for Planning a Project

Project Lengths

11

A 5 days

A 10 days

A 20 days

20 days

40 days

80 days

© 2012 Skip Reedy

A

Subconsciously we think the probability curve doesn’t move when we increase the estimate.

A A

A

Probability of a longer task

12

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Project Scheduling SoftwareTurns estimates into deadlines

A

1/26 2/9

2/10 2/23

2/24 3/8

3/9 3/22

A

B

C

D

Software Schedule

3/22Project

End1/26

ProjectStart

Like Milestones

Like Deadlines

13

© 2012 Skip Reedy

means “Be NOT Late”

Long estimates are self-fulfilling prophesies

14

Deadline Management

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Parkinson’s LawWork expands to fill the available time

when there isn’t enough to do.

Deadlines and Convoluting Behaviors

15

A

© 2012 Skip Reedy

The Student SyndromeDue Date

Effo

rt

Time

16

Deadlines and Convoluting Behaviors

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Tasking - is the worst

Effort on Blue is interrupted by other projects.

This is how long each task or project should take if full attention is paid to each in turn.

Blue’s duration

Switching projects takes time.

17

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Delays caused by interruptions and switching tasks

Multi-task by writing a letter, number, letter, number, …

online-stopwatch.exe

18

M U L T I T A S K

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Total Time required ______

Multi-Tasking demo

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Tasking demoDo NOT Multi-task.

Write all the letters, then write all the numbers.

online-stopwatch.exe

19

M U L T I T A S K

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Total Time required ______

© 2012 Skip Reedy

The Student Syndrome & Multi-TaskingE

ffort

Time20

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Or maybe like this!

Effo

rt

Time

The Student Syndrome & severe Multi-Tasking

21

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Estimates become Actual DurationsOur allowances for “stuff” become part of the actual duration

22

Task Estimate is a Number

S/W schedules Start & End Dates

End Date = Due Date Milestone = Deadline

Human Behaviors meet Deadlines

Tasks finish when Due

Pick a Number, get a Duration

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Lates Accumulate

3/22

ProjectDue

ProjectStart

A C DB

23

The probability curve and deadline move as tasks B, C & D are pushed by A.

ProjectDue

Late

A Late A Pushed C Late A Pushed + C Pushed

© 2012 Skip Reedy

What do we know!

Yet, tasks often get done about when they are estimated.

24

We don’t know when anything will finish.

Allowances for delays & problems get used up.

EARLY usually doesn’t happen, and LATE often does.

Being on time is hard to do.

© 2012 Skip Reedy

25

The Pony Expressneeds YOU!

© 2012 Skip Reedy

! !

A

B

C

D

BusinessCase

ProjectDuration

Short Estimates

The schedule doesn’t fit the business case.

This schedule fits the business case.

B

C

D

?

In order to make it work, I’m asking you to use aggressive 50% durations.

Critical Chaintasks

However, each task must start before its predecessor ends.

26

© 2012 Skip Reedy

The Critical Chain

27

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Good StatisticsHelp the Pony Express

The variability of a series of tasks is less than that of the sum of the individual task variabilities.

Central Limit Theorem

Seriesflow time probability

28

© 2012 Skip Reedy

The Feeding Chains

29

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Critical Chain Buffers

30

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Buffer Management Fever Chart

Project Fever Chart

Due

Late

Early

31

© 2012 Skip Reedy

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Work Rules

Critical Chain Project Management

Prioritize work (tasks & projects)Use aggressive task estimatesIdentify the Critical Chain Aggregate safety in buffersUse Buffer ManagementWork quickly on one task

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Project Critical Chain

33

© 2012 Skip Reedy

34

Multi-Project Fever Chart

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Consider Unloading Ships...(Projects)

5 ships + 5 persons @ 5 person-days to unload each

= 5 days

35

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Staggering the ProjectsPut all five resources on ship 1 the first day, ship 2 the second day, etc.

Initial Results:Ship New (days) Old (days)

Saved 1 1 5 4 2 2 5 3 3 3 5 2 4 4 5 1 5 5 5 0

Nobody loses. Four of five clients done sooner. Cost = $ 0

Continuing Results:Each arriving ship is unloaded in 1 day.

36

Confluence

37

© 2012 Skip Reedy

38

Adapted from a presentation by Stephen R. Johnson777 Airframe Integration Team Chief Engineer (AFIT)

Boeing Commercial Airplanes

38

Application of CCPM to 777-300 ER Airframe Design

55% of the Airplane

85% of the Airframe20% larger than any

previous derivative

10,000 projects

1,000 people at (peak)

$500,000,000 program

© 2012 Skip Reedy

39

777-300 ERChallenges & Results

Load data > 2 months late

Experienced lead engineers resisted CCPM for

more than 6 months

39

26% faster than its very aggressive schedule

50% reduction* in engineering errors

All end-items shipped on time

Improved engineering release compliance ~15%* Relative to the last 777 derivative: 777-300

© 2012 Skip Reedy

40

777-200 LR airframe design was

completed 5 months earlier than

a

very aggressive schedule

The Next Derivativewith CCPM

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Be EARLY, NOT LATE

Critical Chain is EARLY

3 Ideas to Use Today1. The Critical Chain is the constraint. Focus on it

so it’s always being worked.

2. Pink Paper Pyramids keep the distractions away.

3. Ask 3 Status Questions: What’s going on? What

are you doing about it? and Do you need any

help. 41

42

Questions?

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Skip Reedy

43

Skip is certified in Critical Chain Project Management.He is a member of the Project Management Institute and the Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization. He was with Boeing Commercial Airplanes in Seattle as a Manufacturing Engineer and Design Engineer for 8 years and then as an internal CCPM consultant for six years. For the last eight years he is an independent project management consultant with CCPM Consulting LLC.He is a mechanical engineer from the University of Detroit with an MBA from Loyola University of Chicago. He is a Theory of Constriants Jonah and is certified by TOCICO.

Skip can be contacted at 480-648-1862skip@ccpmconsulting.comhttp://ccpmconsulting.com

© 2012 Skip Reedy

44

Marine Corps Logistics Base

TOC & CCPM implementation 8 minute

video is available at

http://www.ccpmconsulting.com/marine-corps-logistics-base-albany-ga/

© 2012 Skip Reedy

Traditional Project ManagementEstimates become NOT LATE

Task EstimatesConfident estimates are long enough to get the work done, allowing for typical delays and problems.

Probability as a NumberAn estimate is not a prediction. We don’t know how long anything will take.It’s a single number for a task that has the possibility of a range of durations.

Crazy Project Management SoftwareProject management software schedules estimates with start and end dates.End dates become due dates, and deadlines. Deadlines must be met.

Convoluted Normal BehaviorsParkinson’s Law, the Student Syndrome, Multitasking, Deadlines reinforce be NOT LATE.

LATEs, not EARLYsTasks are rarely EARLY and often LATE. LATE tasks push successors to be LATE.LATEs accumulate. EARLYs don’t.

Allowances are IneffectiveAllowances for delays and problems (Safety, Contingency, or Buffer time) are effective against being NOT EARLY and NOT LATE. This safety is wasted.

Increasing the safety makes projects longerLATE tasks encourage future estimates to be longer. Longer estimates make longer projects.Longer projects struggle to be NOT LATE.

Safety in tasks creates longer projects without improving on-time results.45

© 2012 Skip Reedy

46

Fold in

Fold in

110 # card stock works well.Using a straight-edge, run a dull knife along/between the fold lines.

Original Pink Pyramid

Suggested warnings:

What I am working on is more important than whatever it is you are about to ask me. So don’t do it!

If you are delivering money, please interrupt.

Management

Chai

nPr

ojec

t

CriticalSkip Reedy

For help call 480-648-1862My brain is currently experiencing a bandwidth overload. If you intend to interrupt me, please call 911 firs

t.

I am presently in a mood most foul. Disturb at your peril.

I

already

know what

you are going to ask

me. The answer is NO!Please do not disturb.

Tape together close to the corners.

Shameless Advertising

purported to accomplish a goal.

conv

olut

ed b

y hu

man

beh

avio

r and

nt

eve

nts

and

stat

istica

l flu

ctua

tions

,

A project is a combination of depende