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CRedcarbon reduction
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Energy Futures Hard Choices Ahead11th October 2005
Hard Choice Ahead
• Evidence of Climate Change
• Energy Options for the Future
• Hard Choices Ahead
• Future carbon dioxide emissions
• Some conservation issues
• A way forward
• Conclusions
Future Global Warming RatesConcentration of C02 in Atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(ppm
)
Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Change in precipitation 1961-2001
19792003
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal falling rapidly -
coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect
this
potential contribution to
Electricity Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Difficult Choices Ahead
Nuclear Generating Capacity
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Ins
talle
d C
ap
ac
ity
(M
W)
Projection
Actual
Wholesale Price of Electricity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 13 25
(p p
er k
Wh)
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2003 2004 2005
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
Our Choices: They are difficult
• BETTA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip.
• BETTA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling.
• Experience form Denmark and Germany
• normal maximum change in output in any one hour is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year.
• Remote power stations involve 8.5% trnamission losses.
• Local Wind/ Biomass/ Microgeneration avoid these losses
• Large Developments of Renewable generation at periphery of country
>> mean more pylon lines
Renewable Energy:
Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply
We must not get drawn into a single issue debate
– a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed.
Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ele
ctri
city
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
TW
h)
Electricity Options for the FutureLow Growth Scenario
Capped at 420 TWh• 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990
• 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990
• 68 % increase in gas consumption
( Gas Scenario) cf 2002• Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025• Mix option: 11% increase in gas
consumption (cf 2002)
High Growth Scenario
Business as Usual• 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990
• 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990
• 257% increase in gas consumption
( Gas Scenario) cf 2002
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mto
nn
es C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
Government Response
• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in
local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
• (– but no indication of how this will be
undertaken)
“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’
- Energy White Paper: February 2003
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 36 million for Greater London
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Some facts:
A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging
up to 20 kg CO2 a year
Standby on television > 60 kg per year
Filling up with petrol (~40 litres ~£37 for a full tank)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity
Involve the local Community
Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Need to move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear? Can we avoid new Nuclear?
• Yes: • but only if expansion of Renewables is at a greater rate than even
Government Targets • and everyone embraces Energy Conservation
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.