Cooperation on the Nile: status, challenges and prospects

Dr Callist Tindimugaya

Commissioner, Water Resources Planning and Regulation and Nile –TAC

Member, Uganda

Are the warm drums over the Nile waters real?

World’s: longest river; 2nd largest lake

(Victoria); largest swamps (Sudd)

11 countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo,

Egypt, Eritrea¹, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda,

South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda

Nile states 300m people, 600m in 2025

Region of extremes:

poverty: 5 of world’s 10 poorest

conflict: 7 countries in 15 yrs

v. high rainfall variability & climate

change uncertainty

Very limited infrastructure

10% HEP potential developed

15% pop. served with electricity

40% of irrigable land irrigated

¹ observer in Nile Basin Initiative

The Nile & Nile Basin

Origin of flow to Main Nile / Egypt

Annual Flood

Atbara 13% 22%

Blue Nile 59% 68%

Baro 14% 5%

Total Ethiopia 86% 95%

“White Nile” 14% 5%

Total Nile 100% 100%

Hydrology & politics

• Nile has 2 main tributaries: White Nile and Blue Nile. Flow origins explain politics

• Small flow (2% of Amazon; 6% Congo; 12% Yangtze; 17% Niger; 26% Zambezi)

• Extreme rainfall variability, creating big risks; increased by climate change

• Uganda/equatorial flow mostly lost in Sudd

• South Sudan & Sudan: 65% basin area;

most tributaries meet & opportunities involve

• Ethiopia: 86% of mean flow into Egypt

• Egypt: no rain & no flow additions

• Futures: major climate change unknowns

Evolution of cooperation on the Nile

• Nile Basin countries have been engaged in cooperative management of the Transboundary resource in different ways and at different times.

• These engagements have evolved leading to the formation of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in February 1999.

• Earlier cooperative initiatives include:

- Hydro meteorological Survey of Lakes Victoria, Kyoga, Albert, Edward and George (HYDROMET) Project (1967 to 1992)

- Technical Cooperation on the Nile (TECCONILE) Project (1992 to 1999)

Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)

NBI was formally established in February, 1999

The NBI brings all Nile Basin countries to work together

to develop the resources of the Nile Basin for the

benefit of all.

Provides a platform for co-operation and for building

working relationships between the riparian countries

Promote regional peace and security

It is a mechanism for the implementation of the

“shared vision”

through an agreed

“Strategic Action Program”

The Shared Vision

“To achieve sustainable socio-economic

development through equitable

utilization of, and benefit from,

the common Nile Basin water resources.”

Shared Vision

Action on the ground

Shared Vision

Program

Subsidiary

Action Prog.

Strategic Action Program for the Nile Basin

Main Tasks

SVP

Create an enabling environment for

cooperative investments and action

on the ground, within a basin-wide

framework.

Promote Shared Vision through a

limited, but effective, set of basin-

wide activities and programs SAP

Translates the shared vision into

action through sub-basin

investment projects - NBI Policy Guidelines

NBI Governance Structure

SVP and other Nile SEC

Functions

NILE-COM

NILE-TAC

ENSAPT NELTAC

NBI SECRETARIAT

(Nile-SEC)

ENSAP SECRETARIAT

(ENTRO)

NELSAP CU UNIT

NELSAP-CU

ENTRO

Functions

NELSAP-CU

Functions

NBI NATIONAL OFFICES

Two tracks followed by NBI

• Technical track involving implementation of the Shared Vision Program

– ‘Shared Vision Program’ to ‘build trust & capacity”

– ‘Subsidiary Action Program’ to lock in cooperation through investments

– Civil society engagement through ‘Nile Basin Discourse’

• The Cooperative Framework Agreement track

– Handled by a team of negotiators (technical and legal)

Two tracks followed by NBI (cont.)

• The two tracks were kept separate as much as possible until around 2007 when negotiations basically ended

• By 2008 NBI was noted to be a strong but transitional institution

– successful program; remarkable achievements

– Nile Basin TF, 19 development partners, co-chaired by NBI & WB

• BUT cooperation can only be sustained with permanent river basin institution, requiring Cooperative Framework (Nile Treaty)

Date Parties Name of Nile Treaty Nile Treaty Objective/Content

1891 GB

Italy

Protocol for spheres of influence in E.

Africa

Italy agreed not to construct any works on Atbara that would affect flow into Nile (main

concern: irrigation works)

1902 GB

Ethiopia

Treaty on Frontiers between Anglo-

Egyptian Sudan, Ethiopia, & Eritrea

Ethiopia agrees not to interfere with flow of Nile without consulting Great Britain & Sudan.

1906 GB

Congo

Agreement on spheres of influence in

E. & C. Africa

Congo agreed not construct any work which would diminish flow into Lake Albert, unless in

agreement with Government of Sudan.

1925 GB

Italy

Exchange of Notes re. Concessions

for Barrage at Lake Tana…

Italy recognized prior hydraulic rights of Egypt & Sudan & agrees not to construct on

headwaters of Blue Nile & White Nile & their tributaries works which might modify flow Nile

1929 GB

Egypt

Exchange of Notes re. Use of the

Waters of the River Nile for irrigation

Egypt claims ‘natural & historic rights’ in Nile waters; without agreement of Egypt, no

measures to be taken on Nile & its tributaries in Sudan or in countries under British

administration (Kenya, Tanganyika & Uganda)

1934 GB

Belgium

Agreement re. Water Rights between

Tanganyika & Rwanda-Burundi

Regulates utilization of boundary waters, notification of projects, water quality & navigation

1949

&

1952

GB

Egypt

Exchange of Notes re. Construction of

Owen Falls Dam (Uganda)

Uganda to build hydroelectric dam that “did not adversely affect discharges of water passed

through”; reconfirms curves agreed in 1929; resident Egyptian engineer at Owen Falls;

(1952) Egypt agrees to bear part of cost of dam to raise L. Victoria level for water storage

1959 Egypt

Sudan

Agreement for the Full Utilization of

the Nile Waters

Parties agree to: allocate of full yield (55.5 bcm/year Egypt; 18.5 bcm/year Sudan);

Permanent Joint Technical Commission; have unified view for Nile negotiations with others

1977 Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

Agreement to Establish Kagera River

Basin Organization

Establishment of KBO as regional integration and development organization (now defunct)

1993 Egypt

Ethiopia

Framework for General Cooperation Confirm intention to cooperate on Nile Waters & agree to refrain from engaging in any

activity that may cause appreciable harm to interests of other

2003 Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

Protocol for Sustainable Development

of Lake Victoria Basin

Parties agree to cooperate on sustainable development and management of the basin.

Establishment of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission

Nile Treaty regime central to CFA issue. 1902, 1929 & 1959

treaties are central to current concerns of all parties

Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) • The CFA – first inclusive treaty on the Nile

– purpose is to provide a regional framework of “legal and institutional arrangements”… “acceptable to all Basin countries to promote Basin-wide cooperation in … water resources planning & management”

– does adopt key principles of international water law

– establishes permanent Nile River Basin Commission

• Lengthy process of treaty negotiation 1997-2008

– 1997-2006: Series of technical negotiations (panel of experts ) – 2006-2007 Nile Council of Minister (Nile COM) resolved many difficult

reservations

– June 2007 Nile COM ‘conclude’ negotiations, closing 15 general principles and 38 Articles but one ‘reservation’ remaining

• Outstanding issue

– unresolved issue related to “Water Security” (Article 14, replacing “Status of Existing Agreements”). Main words of disagreement in the formulations are on the current uses and rights

– world-class legal team – yet no resolution

– simple issue is ‘heart of matter”: political, not legal

• Consultations continued between 2007 and 2010

– growing frustration, increasingly negative media

Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)

• Nile –COM decisions on how to address outstanding issue – In May 2009 in Kinshasa, agreed to put the pending issue in

Annex to CFA and sign off the already agreed articles. Have the issue resolved within 6 months of establishing the Nile River Basin Commission

– This decision was contested by Egypt and Sudan which requested for further consultations.

– Consultations continued between July 2009 and April 2010. However frustration continued to grow

– In a Nile-COM meeting in Sharma el Sheikh, Egypt in April 2010, 7 countries out of 9 resolved to sign the CFA on 14 May 2010 in Entebbe and gave all countries 1 year within which to sign it

– CFA signed initially by 4 countries (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda) on 14 May 2010, joined later by Kenya 2 weeks after and later by Burundi 10 months after.

– The required number of countries (Six) to enable the CFA move to ratification has been realised.

– The ratification process was to be launched just after 14 May 2011 to pave way for establishment of a Commission in Entebbe

Status of the CFA

• Ratified by Ethiopian Parliament and consented to by Prime Minister in June 2013. Instrument of ratification already submitted to African Union Commission.

• Ratified by Rwandan Parliament in July 2013 • Ratification in all the other countries including Uganda

is in advanced stages.

If there is no CFA deal…. unacceptable risks

• Non-cooperation: bleak futures…? – Egypt: inevitable upstream unilateral development + climate change threat to

‘water security’; internal disputes; potential conflict risk

– Sudan: risks with new/current unilateral dam-building agenda foreclosing cooperative options; shared interests with Ethiopia? conflict?

– South Sudan: entity with key water resources, history suggests return to instability

– Ethiopia: history suggests instability & isolation; poverty trap; conflict?

– Uganda & other equatorial lakes nations: blocked water development; isolation - obstacle to investment & growth

• Without CFA: risks to growth & peace – donor fatigue, NBI will fade away, window of opportunity will close

– cooperation could likely happen one day – but what damage before then?

• growing populations & water demand, few options, climate change

If there is a CFA deal: achievable cooperative futures

• Little flows between Nile countries except Nile – cooperation can (and has) catalyze free flow of goods, labor, capital, ideas

cooperation dividends

• Geography indicates huge potential for ‘cooperative’ investment – More food, power, navigation; less flood, drought, dispute

– river regulation & water conservation to increase flows

– hydropower where gradient is high (Ethiopia, Uganda; also S. Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi)

– extensive rainfed/supplementary irrigated agriculture where rainfall is high & gradient low (all equatorial countries, S. Sudan, Ethiopia)

– extensive irrigated agriculture where rainfall & gradient low (especially Egypt, Sudan)

– “beyond the river” multipliers

• Basin-wide investment in agricultural intensification and agri-business

• Connectivity: road/rail, power, telecoms, trade (e.g. Egypt-Ethiopia – over 50% trade increase year-on-year 2003-12 due to Nile dialogue)

What CFA deal means for Uganda

• Uganda: the downstream & upstream state – Multi-directional interests; home of Nile Commission; broker of deals

• c. 2000 MW hydropower, c. 20% developed – Major power generation and interconnection investments

• c. 2-300,000 ha irrigation potential; c. 10% developed – Rehabilitation, expansion of (private?) irrigation schemes (with other

riparian investment & trade?)

• Lakes Kyoga & Albert regional, multi-sector development

• Watershed management and water harvesting at scale (south and north-east?) – with security benefits….

• Growth poles – linking power, agriculture, transport, industry, markets & private sector development

• New initiatives with S. Sudan, including power, transport links (navigation, rail)… even to Med. via Egypt/Sudan

The benefits of Nile cooperation to

Member Countries

• NBI continues to provide a unique platform for regional

dialogue and regular fora for political and technical co-

operation.

• Builds capacity, systems and techniques that equip the

Nile Basin countries for planning to maximise the

development opportunities, for reviewing multi-purpose

development options for the sustainable utilization and

management of the shared water resources, and

participate in regional decision making on the Nile and its

resources.

• NBI supports the identification & preparation of investment

projects which contribute to economic growth and poverty

reduction in the Nile Region.

The benefits of Nile cooperation to

Member Countries

• Supported, to-date Nile Basin governments to leverage a

combined USD 1.2 Billion in water, power and related

infrastructure investments using a total of USD 150 Million

preparation costs out of which countries contributed USD

6.5 Million in-cash and USD 59 Million in-kind.

• Identified new opportunities for even higher additional

investment opportunities up to USD 3 Billion by Year 2016

and preparation grants and credits worth USD 275 Million

if countries are willing to contribute to NBI with gradual

country contribution increment within the coming 5 years a

total of USD 3.8 Million (from USD 35,000 to 50,000 to

120,000 to 180,000 to 245,000) per country over the

coming 5 years.

The benefits of Nile cooperation to

Member Countries

• NBI contributes towards energy availability and access

through support to member states’ power utilities and Power

Pools in the form of capacity development, identification of

power generations options and resultant trade opportunities

with a plan that all NBI member countries will be

interconnected as from 2015.

• NBI contributes to capacity in disaster preparedness through

forecasting of extreme climatic events such as floods and also

facilitates better understanding and cooperative management

of climate change consequences.

• NBI is maintaining a basin-wide knowledge base on the

Basin’s water resources, monitoring of the Basin’s health, and

serves as an efficient mechanism for basin-wide exchange of

experiences, information & notification for water resources

development.

Some on ground benefits of Nile cooperation

to Uganda

Natural Resources Sub program

River Basin Management Projects of Mara, Kagera and

Sio-Malaba-Malakisi

• Shared by Kenya/Uganda

• Financing: Pre-Investment program, Bridging Phase

• Sida/Norway (US$1.86m,

• NBTF - US$2.15m

Project Districts

Kenya – Bungoma (N, E, W, S), Teso,

Busia, Mt. Elgon.

Uganda – Bududa, Bugiri, Busia,

Butaleja, Manafwa, Namutumba,

Pallisa and Tororo.

Sio-Malaba-Malakisi project background

Prefeasibility Study –Identification of Dam

Locations

SN Site Name River Coordinates Dam Height

Reservoir Capacity

MCM Easting Northing

1 Bulusambu Manafwa 626260 105670 10 19.4

2 Amagoro Malaba 620000 65154 15 170

3 Nyamatunga Nyamatunga 642915 76540 14 2

4 Angolola Malaba 645160 76706 22 13

5 Pokach Osia 618382 72605 12 11.1

6 Auyo Ongoro 607605 69543 10 50.1

7 Nyabanja Dumbu 601017 80672 12 11.8

8 Otiroki Nankwasi 623500 96500 8 6.4

9 Kazinga Namatala 610500 107000 10 17.5

10 Kikadhi Atapere 620000 92500 10 8.33

11 Busigumba Lumboka 602000 49500 8 8.0

12 Bumbamosi Maingo 604000 40400 8 4.0 13 Wanenga Wakwera 686500 71000 10 5.0

Identified Multi-purpose Storage Reservoirs

Lake Kyoga Multipurpose Project Identified (Okok &

Okere)

• Lopei Multipurpose Dam

Project (120MCM)

– 448 kW

– 2500-5000Ha

– Water Supply for

35,000p

– U$ 50M

Aswa Basin Multipurpose Projects Identified

1. Mid-Aswa MPP

2. Paralo MPP

3. Aruu Project

4. Kitgum MPP

5. Fulla Rapids

HPP

6. Moroto MPP

7. Nyimur MPP

8. Parajok MPP

Power Development and Trade

Natural Sub program

Current Regional Power Projects under NELSAP

1. Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project

2. Interconnection Project of Electricity Networks of 5 Nile Equatorial Lakes Countries (Kenya, Uganda, DRC, Rwanda, Burundi)

3. Kenya – Tanzania Power Interconnection Study

4. Iringa – Mbeya Transmission line Study in Tanzania

5. Uganda – DR Congo (Beni – Butembo - Bunia) Power

Transmission Line Study.

6. Tanzania – Zambia Interconnection study

Ken-TZ & TZ- Zambia Connectors

32

B U N I A

J U B A

Existing and Planned Interconnections

Z A M B I A

DRC-UGANDA POWER CORRIDOR

Mobilized funding per country

Country Funding and sources (in million)

Total (in USD Million)

Burundi UA 15.15 AfDB + 18 Euros KFW + 16.5 Euros EU

69

DRC UA 27.67 AfDB + Euro 6.5 GoN 52.29

Kenya UA 39.77 AfDB 62.94

Rwanda UA 30.47 AfDB + Euro 38 KFW + Euro 17.250 GoN

120.05

Uganda UA 7.59 AfDB + Yen 5.406 billion JICA

67.02

Total 370.68

Uganda (Nkenda) – DR Congo (Bunia /Butembo) Transmission study

1. Objective

To build a 220 KV transmission line from Nkenda in

Uganda up to Bunia, Butembo via Beni in the North

Eastern region of the D R Congo

2. Status

The feasibility study in progress

Study expected to be completed in August 2013.

Are the warm drums over the Nile waters real?

• The Nile River will continue to flow whether there is

formal cooperation or not.

• Countries, especially downstream countries, will

always have interest in what is happening in upstream

countries and cannot afford to take back seat on

issues related to the Nile

• The benefits of cooperation over Nile waters seem to

out way the benefits of war.

So are the war drums over the Nile waters real?