KEY MESSAGES

1. 2

2. NATIONAL 2

POLITICAL 3

SOCIAL 4

ECONOMIC 6

3. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TARGET STATES 8

*Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government.

** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CONTEXT ANALYSIS

CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 43, December 2016

CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES

Executive SummaryThe security situation remained precarious in December as conflict dynamics pointed in both directions of escalation and de-escalation. In the North East, there were marked increased in incidence of attempted suicide attacks in Maiduguri and parts of Borno State. These attacks were obviously attempts by the Jama'atul ahl al-sunnah li da'awati wal jihad (JAS) to undermine claims by the Federal Government about their defeat following the military's successful operations to dislodge them from their base in Sambisa Forest. However, the situation in neighbouring Yobe looked different with no incident of attack by JAS reported for a three month period.

Across the states, factional political struggles continued to undermine peace and security. In Kano the tussle for supremacy between Governor Abdullahi Ganduje and his predecessor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso polarised members of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) and interest groups raising fears of violent clashes between supporters of the two leaders. A similar tussle between Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and his predecessor Rotimi Amaechi led to violence in the Rivers re-run elections held on December 10. In Kaduna State, political rivalries between Nasir El Rufai and some prominent members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) contributed to the exacerbation of the crisis in Southern Kaduna where many lives were lost following attacks by unknown gunmen.

The economic recession, perceptions of non-accountability and allegations of corruption and abuse of office negatively impacted on stability and credibility of all tiers of government. The anti-corruption image of the Federal Government was called to question with allegations levelled against the Secretary to the Federal Government and the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Inability of state and LGA governments to pay staff salaries on schedule also fuelled allegations of financial mismanagement in different states and alienated workers and members of the public from the government. There were major concerns that the economic recession and declining social safety nets aggravated by delays in payment of salaries of public sector workers would contribute to the tensions in society and violent crime.

National Context

Doubts over Federal Government's Commitment to Anti-corruption Sources in the National Assembly questioned the federal Government's commitment to anti-corruption. This followed investigation of a senate committee on management of funds of humaritarian relief in the North East and the screening of the president's nominee for chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

The Presidential Committee on the North East Initiative (PCNI) has been accused of corruption and lack of accountability. This followed report by the Senate ad-hoc committee on the North East humanitarian crisis which uncovered alleged cases of corruption, including phantom projects and inflated contracts. The Senate Committee said PCNI could not properly account for about N2.5 billion released to it for capital intervention. The Committee also indicted Mr. Babachir Lawal, Secretary to the Federal Government for violation of procurement rules and corrupt practices.

The rejection of Ibrahim Magu's nomination as chairman of the EFCC marked the end of months of delay by the Senate to act on President Muhammadu Buhari's request. The Senate said it declined confirmation because of a report of the Department of State Security (DSS), which indicted Magu for violating laws on conflict of interest. Like Lawal, Magu is considered a close ally of President Buhari.

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Political

Scepticism Remains of Military's defeat of JASLt. Gen. Tukur Yusuf Buratai, Chief of Army Staff stated that the Nigerian Army will completely invade Sambisa Forest in early December “in order to get rid of all Boko Haram remnants”. The Army Chief used the opportunity of his goodwill message to troops to commend the troops for their commitment and to enjoin them to take aggressive action to end the insurgency. This call was received with mixed reactions among the population in Borno State, many of whom criticize the military's plan for being unrealistic.

Conflict over Maulud Celebration in Yobe StateIn spite of the relative peace recorded in Yobe State in the month of December, reports from Potiskum indicated that attempts by military personnel to disperse some residents converging to celebrate Maulud festival generated commotion in the township. The celebrants were assembling close to the Emir's palace to embark on a procession to mark the season indicating the birth of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) when military personnel went to the scene and dispersed them. The act caused some stampede leading to injuries to many people, including children. This generated a lot of comments from residents of Yobe State. While some are of the opinion that the organizers of the procession were naive and insensitive to the security vulnerability of Potiskum township, some residents of the state underscore that the military personnel should have used more humane tactics to stop the procession. Reactions to the incident on social media also revealed wide ideological conflict between those in favour of marking the birthday of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and those against it. One of the groups is alleging that the other ideological group is orchestrating the use of the formal security sector to annihilate members of ideological groups that have ideological difference with them.

LGA Elections in Yobe State at Risk of Missing PDP CandidateThe Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) along with some opposition parties seem not to be willing to participate in the forthcoming local government election. Sources at Yobe State Independent Electoral Commission (YSEIC) confirm that no candidate of the PDP in particular has picked nomination forms to contest any position as at 23 December, 2016. Some members of the opposition parties asked for the rationale for the lack of interest to contest in the elections, and it was communicated that there is no confidence in the fairness and equity of YSEIC. They emphasized that they would not like to stake their fund, time and other resources in contests that would not favour them considering the antecedents of previous elections and complaints of lack of internal democracy in the ruling party by its members.

Political Conflicts Continue in Kano StateThe lingering conflict between Governor Ganduje and Senator Kwankwaso has taken a new dimension as the APC North-west zone meeting confirmed Alhaji Abdullahi Abbas as the new Kano state party chairman. The meeting which was held in Dutse the Jigawa state capital discussed issues related to intra-party conflicts in the region and recognised Alhaji Abdullahi Abbas, loyal to Governor Ganduje, as the new state APC Chairman. This has heightened the conflict between the supporters of Ganduje and Kwankwaso. Many political leaders from the both sides have resorted to media war of words as a result of the situation. It has also afforded members of the opposition party; the PDP in the state to cash-in on the controversy and woo the aggrieved Kwankwasiyya faction to return to the opposition PDP so as to unseat Governor Ganduje in 2019.

Preparations for Local Government Elections in Plateau State ContinueThe political parties in the state have swung into action with strategic moves towards winning the forth coming LGA elections within the first half of 2017 and by extension, the 2019 general elections. The confirmation of the nominees for the Plateau State Independent Electoral Commission (PLASIEC) in November 2016 raised people's expectation that the LGA elections will be held within the first quarter of 2017. Though, the State Government is yet to announce the date for the election, the opposition party in the State – PDP (Peoples' Democratic Party) organised a reconciliatory meeting in December to assuage aggrieved members with a view to strengthening the party. The meeting which was convened by the State Chairman of the party; Honourable Damishi Sango, primarily focused on imploring its prominent members to work together towards re-positioning of the party for the local government elections and the general elections in 2019.

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Kaduna Government Declares IMN an 'Insurgent Group' in Kaduna StateThe political scene in early December was dominated by the Kaduna State Government release of the white paper on the judicial commission of inquiry into the Zaria clashes of December 2015. The judicial commission of inquiry had earlier in the year in July submitted its reports in which it examined among other issues, the immediate and remote causes of the clashes between the Nigerian Army and the outlawed Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN). Following the submission of the report, the Kaduna State Government made it public within ten days of its submission and also set up a committee of senior public servants to prepare a draft white paper that was just released now. Accordingly, the Kaduna State Government has officially labelled the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN), an insurgent group, with the release of the white paper. As contained in the white paper released by the Kaduna state government that; “For all intent and purpose, the IMN is an insurgent group and ought to be treated as such”. The state government has vowed to prosecute the IMN leader, Shaikh Ibrahim EL–Zak Zaky.

Lawsuits over the University of Africa Drives Conflict in Bayelsa StateConcerns and discontent in the polity over the establishment of the University of Africa were reactivated by a law suit instituted by Professor Kimse Okoko, a former President of the Ijaw National Congress (INC) and former Pro-Chancellor/Chairman of the NDU Governing Council against the State Government over the establishment of the University. The suit which joined the State House of Assembly and the National Universities Commission is questioning the ownership and propriety of establishing the University. The State Government has responded to the suit with conflict insensitive comments on the person of Professor Okoko and this has become a major talking point in the state. Given the closeness between Chief Timipre Sylva, former Governor of the State and APC candidate in the December 2015 Governorship elections, the rivalry between Professor Okoko and Governor Dickson when they were both executive members of the INC (Professor Okoko was President while Governor Dickson was Legal Adviser). The insults were raised on Professor Okoko who enjoys wide support and solidarity, by state government functionaries, and the. It may undermine the stability of the state.

Social

Allegations of Collusion with Selling Confiscated Goods in Borno StateThe Army is accused of collaborating with the CJTF as vendors trading in stolen livestock, food, fish and medication in difficult to access areas of Borno. This comes as an allegation that the Army is more interested in making money than serving its primary responsibility which is national defence.

Arrests made in Sexual Violence Cases against Women and Girls in Borno StateA report published in Human Rights Watch in October detailed how government officials abused and raped women living in IDP camps in Borno State. The Inspector-General of Police, Ibrahim Idris, said two policemen, three Army personnel, one prison official, one Air Force personnel, a staff of Borno Ministry for Agriculture and two members of the Civilian JTF have been arrested for sexually abusing women and girls displaced by the JAS insurgency. Speaking at the Inspector General of Police Conference in Abuja, IGP Idris said police would liaise with the Army and Air Force to make their personnel available for a thorough investigation.

Senate Lobbies Allegations of Mismanagement of the Humanitarian Effort against PCNI (Borno and Yobe States) The President's Committee on the North East Initiative (PCNI) has been accused of corruption and poor accountability standards that have been hindering efforts at addressing the humanitarian crisis and rebuilding infrastructure in the region, said the Senate ad-hoc committee on the north-east humanitarian crisis. The committee uncovered what appeared to be cases of corruption, including phantom projects and inflated contracts at the PCNI during a hearing. At the hearing, PCNI could not properly account for about N2.5 billion, part of funds released for it for capital intervention. In addition, PCNI's claim of spending several millions of naira to renovate 18 schools completely destroyed by JAS insurgents in Yobe State alone, which was also rejected by the commissioner, confirming only three schools to have been renovated by agencies outside the state.

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Limited Education Facilities present challenges in newly accessible areas in Yobe StateLack of functional schools and facilities are posing as challenges in liberated communities in Yobe State. While it is evident that the activities of JAS affected school enrolment in some communities in Yobe State, parents and guardians who want their children and wards to attend school complain that teachers are not readily available in the schools. Until peace is consistently sustained, no teacher or health worker would like to work in seemingly security vulnerable communities. This would increase the level of illiteracy and infant and maternal mortality as well as epidemic in the affected communities.

Concerns over JAS insurgents moving to Kano State due to military operations in Borno StateIn the month under review, the influx of insurgents from the Sambisa forest has been the major concern to the government and people of Kano state. In his visit to the President, Governor Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje told the president that JAS members and kidnappers were planning to invade and dominate the whole of north-western states particularly Kano state. The Governor observed that as the military continues with its offensive in the Sambisa forest, the insurgents were planning to leave the forest, and Kano may be an attractive place for insurgents and kidnappers to operate. The governor stated that the security agencies had made some arrests and that investigations were on going. This revelation by the governor has created panic among the people of the state and the issue of being security conscious has been a matter of great concern in the state.

Child Kidnapping Rates Causing Conflict between Community Members and Nigerian Police in Kano StateIt was also in the month of December that conflict between the Nigeria Police, Kano Command and some members of Hotoro community of Tarauni/Nassarawa local government areas generated a lot of debates in the state. The members of this community repeatedly complained to the police about rampant missing of their children in the area. The community alleged that despite numerous complaints on the rampant cases of missing children in the area the police were reluctant about the situation. The police in their reaction through the public relations officer of the Kano state command, DSP Magaji Musa Majia accused the parents of carelessness and negligence in looking after their younger children. The situation generated a serious tension that led to the intervention of the Kano state commissioner of police, Alhaji Rabi'u Yusuf who summoned a meeting with leaders of the community. During the meeting, the community emphasised the allegations levelled against the police divisional headquarters located in the community that they conspired with the perpetrators to allow them carry their dastardly act in the area. According to some parents of the missing kids, about seven children missed while playing in their neighbourhoods with no trace of them. The commissioner promised to look into the situation. The matter have received the attention of CSOs and taken to the media as it was aired by a popular media house in the state. Residents feared a possible backlash from police stationed in the community. But assurances and the presence of the commissioner of police helped calm their fears.

Security Concerns Remain Challenging for Plateau StateAlthough the Commander, Operation Safe Haven (OPSH) personally carried out advocacy visits to some areas and the media houses, addressing the state on their readiness to ensure the security of the state, incidences of armed robbery persisted along Barkin Ladi to Mangu axis's of Barkin Ladi LGA and Mangu LGA during the month of December. The most widely reported case in the area was the armed robbery incident that led to the death of a former commissioner for Agriculture under Governor Jang's administration, Mr Sagwak Wazhi.

Violence between Groups in Kaduna State ContinueKaduna State recorded violent activities of armed political groups that are also heightening the mounting political tensions among rival political groups. Early in the month, unknown gunmen suspected to be rival political gangs, attacked and raided the campaign office of Senator Shehu Sani (APC, Kaduna Central). According to sources within the security, the attack occurred when some supporters of the Senator were having a meeting at the office. The suspected gunmen carted away their phones and valuables. In like manner, the Kaduna State branch of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) has expressed concern by faulting the Kaduna State Governor Mallam Nasir EL-Rufai for his alleged decision to offer monetary inducements to get herders stop killings and violence in Southern Kaduna.

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Violence Continued in Bayelsa and Rivers StatesAlthough cult related attacks (intra and inter cult attacks) were not reported probably because the secondary schools that are cult infested were on vacation or that political patronage of cultists is low at the moment, crimes perpetrated by cultist have continued to be on the increase. For example, on 8 and 9 December 2016, cultists robbed residents of Samphino road in Kpansia (within the state capital) in broad day light without any challenge or arrest. Other areas where such incidents were reported include Swali and Ovom communities. By and large, cultism remains a major threat to peace and security in the state. A peculiar feature of areas where such crimes occur is that they are congested and have a large concentration of idle youths and high prevalence of drug or substance abuse. Related to this is the increasing use of commercial tricycle (Keke NAPEP) to either rob at gun point or engage in pickpocketing. Pickpocketing in tricycles is very notorious in the Yenagoa urban during the month of December. Although this type of criminality has become common place in the city, the occurrence rate was very high; probably because of the Christmas celebrations. Also reported were isolated incidents of robbing passengers in taxi cabs.

Apart from the political crisis, some parts of Rivers state witnessed inter cult gang reprisal violence and kidnaps which threatened peace and security in the state and spread fear. For example, on 17 December, a 16-seatre bus conveying 16 passengers (all members of the Christ Holy Church (CHC) travelling to the Ndoni area in ONELGA to attend a crusade were hijacked and whisked away by suspected ransoms-seeking kidnappers. The incident happened near a military checkpoint. There was an exchange of gun shots between the soldiers and the fleeing kidnap suspects.

Herdsmen Invade Communities in Aniocha South and Ughelli North LGAs The conflict between herders and farmers in Uwheru, Agadama, and Ohorhor communities that abated a while ago through the efforts of CSOs, security agencies, referrals from the DSCMA and other stakeholders has reportedly resurrected recently when herders invaded the above communities in Ughelli North LGA. The Uwheru community could not even recover the corpse of the person that was shot dead as a result of the siege laid around the bushes by the herders. Though, the case was referred by the DSCMA secretariat to the security agencies and government for prompt response, nothing was done. This has heightened tension and the likelihood of a reprisal attack from the communities.

Economic

Economic Challenges in Yobe State ContinueBacklog of salaries owed local government workers and primary school teachers have been offset by the government. Local government workers and primary school teachers were elated when they started receiving their December salaries on 22nd December. However, the prices of essential commodities continue to soar. There are concerns that the hyper-inflation could increase poverty and vulnerability in Yobe State next year given the fact that a large number of the citizens are not civil servants and the civil servants may not necessarily have the capacity to cater for the large number of their dependents given the kind of take home salaries they receive. This would in essence stir rural-urban migration and the attendant problems such generates.

Allegations of Land Scam Led to High Profile Arrests in Kano StateDuring the month of December, two major economic issues dominated the discourse in Kano state. The Commissioner for Land and Physical Planning, a Permanent secretary and a director in the same Ministry were arrested and arraigned before a Kano high court over an alleged N5.9 million land scam. The Kano state Public Complaint and Anti-corruption Commission made the arrests and prosecution. The accused were arraigned on a three-count charge bordering on conspiracy and criminal breach of trust. The accused were alleged to have conspired among themselves, sometime in April, 2016 to sell out a plot of land to someone in the state in the sum of N5 million, and issued him with a letter of grant in respect of the said property the prosecution council said. It was further alleged that the same accused persons had in May same year issued out two occupancy permits; C8 and C21 at one area – Kuyan ta Inna, Kumbotso Local Government Area in fictitious names of Aisha Kabeer and Maryam Ado which were sold at N300, 000 each. All the accused pleaded not guilty to all the three charges. The state governor suspended the accused commissioner and appointed one of his commissioners to oversee the affairs of the affected ministry, pending the outcome of the suit. The actions of the state Anti-craft agency and the state governor were largely commended by the people of the state and it was reported that many NGOs called on other state governors to emulate the gesture in their states.

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Salaries Cleared in Plateau StateThe Plateau State Government has fulfilled its promised to clear all outstanding salaries and allowances of workers and pensioners in the state by the end of December 2016. As a result, workers and pensioners in the state received their salary and allowances shortly before the Christmas celebration. The gesture was appreciated by the workers as they applaud the state government for keeping to his words to clear outstanding salaries and continue to pay workers' entitlement as at when due. Some workers were quick to lament on the need for salary increase in order to meet the rate of inflation in the market. Workers and pensioners also complained about the delay for several hours experienced in the Banks and other ATM points in Jos and Bukuru before having access to withdraw their money. They complained about insufficient cash in the machines and persistent network failure in addition to the long queues occasioned by the payment of salaries and allowances before the festive season.

Kaduna State House of Assembly Passes Budget and Appropriations BillThe Kaduna State Governor has signed the 2017 appropriation bill into law ten days after its passage by the state House of Assembly. The Governor in a remark mentioned that the 2017 Kaduna State Budget still retains the pro-poor commitment of the state government. The Kaduna State House of Assembly has passed the budget and appropriation bill three weeks earlier than in the previous year. The Law makers approved a total budget size of =N=214,921 billion up from =N=172 billion Naira from the previous year. The budget is made up of recurrent expenditure of =N= 83.46 billion Naira and Capital spending =N=131.45 billion Naira. The budget ratio is 61:39 in favour of Capital spending.

Payments Made in Bayelsa StateGovernment paid 50 per cent of salaries to civil servants in December. This was the first time payments were issued since June 2016. This eased further with the payment of two-month full salary in the month of December 2016. However, the continuing rise of commodity prices undermined the full benefits of the two-month salary that was paid. For several persons, loan deductions by their banks gave some near zero balance. This was compounded by the inability of Banks in the state to make payment to customers on the ground that cash was not available. Before now, the government paid the half salaries in cash to avoid such deductions by the banks. Bank customers were either asked to go and return later or paid sums half of what they intended to withdraw, or a fixed rate of between ten thousand (N10,000) to fifty thousand (N50,000), depending on the bank concerned.

Delta Government Embarks on Massive Roads RehabilitationThe state government has embarked on massive road rehabilitation across the state. In every local government, there are two or more roads that have either been rehabilitated or under rehabilitation. Respondents reported that this development has brought relief to the citizens who have suffered the burden of bad roads and lack of drainages over the years. It was further reported that the socio-economic lives of the citizens has slightly been improved as vehicles can now reach some communities that have been inaccessible before now. Farm produce can now easily be taken to surrounding markets with less hardship and at a lesser cost. However, some respondents have questioned the quality of the construction work being done vis-a-vis the contractual sum quoted for them.

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Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the North EastIt is recommended that programmes working on humanitarian support need continue needs assessments in newly accessible LGAs; however, security challenges will continue to present obstacles to effective humanitarian service delivery outside and even within Maiduguri. Organizations working in Borno should be cautious of government statements regarding the defeat of JAS militarily and proceed with caution to places outside Maiduguri. Borno and Yobe State's require proper coordination among organisations and between the organizations and local government to balance IDP needs rather than over supply certain items, while lacking in others as reports indicate that many of the newly accessible LGAs still lack food. A more conflict sensitive and gender sensitive approach to humanitarian aid distribution is recommended to assure that humanitarian aid does not exacerbate conflict dynamics among the population. Therefore, it is recommended for programmes working on peacebuilding and governance to focus on supporting the humanitarian assistance with improved conflict and gender sensitive tactic.

For programmes working on security sector in Yobe State, mistrust between the civilian population and the formal security actors is imperative to improving security and stability. It is recommended that programmes that encourage security sector reform and human rights should sensitise the military on how to act in such situation without causing commotion. Furthermore, such programmes should also enlighten the civilian population on the implication of embarking on processions without considering security implications. Also, programmes like the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP) should explore synergy with security sector reform and human rights programmes to create opportunity for formal security actors-public relations in Yobe State.

The non-participation of a major opposition party like the PDP in the forthcoming local government elections in Yobe State need to be revisited. Programmes working on electoral reforms should commission research on the matter and design strategies that would make political parties develop confidence in electoral bodies by making the electoral bodies overtly committed to giving all political parties a level playing field. Furthermore, programmes working on gender sensitivity, and the media should intensify campaigns on the right of women to elect and to be elected to hold political offices. Candidates and their supporters should be enlightened on how to accept defeat or seek redress via the appropriate channels instead of fuelling electoral violence. Therefore, it is recommended that programmes like PERL should continue to support the state government on matters that would change governance for the better and assure that all gender-related dynamics of the election in the state are managed in a gender and conflict sensitive manner.

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in KanoThe political scenario in the state has shown that if measures are not put in place, the New Year will be ushered in with a lot of intra-party conflict which may escalate to unwanted hardship in the state. The APC state chairmanship is secured by the current governor, the Kwankwasiyya faction may likely engage in all forms of distractive measures that might divert the attention of the state government from discharging its constitutional obligations. To manage this, intensive advocacy measures should be put in place by DFID and other relevant development partners as well as the traditional and religious bodies. It is recommended that NGOs and any relevant authority to, as a matter of urgency, put a machinery in motion with the aim of reconciling the incumbent governor Dr Umar Ganduje and the erstwhile, now Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, this effort, if successfully carried out will yield positive result and the state will benefit from it, and all development partners will have an enabling environment to carry out programme activities unhindered.

On the issue of police-community relationship, especially due to incessant stealing or missing of little children in some areas of Kano metropolis; there is need to revive the concept of “Community Policing ” and enlighten as well as sensitise members of the community to be very vigilant to conduct surveillance within and outside their neighbourhoods, also important, parents should be reminded to take their primary responsibilities of proper child upbringing and provision of all forms of child protection measures to their children. Therefore, it is recommended that programmes working on peace building, security and governance like the NSRP and should continue to work with units to support community level activities between the citizens and the state. As we are currently in the harvest season the NSRP supported State Conflict Management Alliance (SCMA) must continue to encourage various security outfits and other relevant agencies and stakeholders to increase their efforts to prevent unnecessary cases of insecurity related to kidnapping in the state. 8

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt (Plateau and Kaduna)The anticipated Plateau state Local Government elections during first half of 2017 and the gradual preparation for the 2019 general elections have continued to stimulate concerns and interest of both the political parties and other stakeholders in some communities. The non-pronouncement of government plans or decision on the tenure of the Interim Management Committees and the date of the actual election are pushing the opposition parties to work on speculations while the ruling party consolidate their plans for the elections ahead. The fears of possible rigging of the election by the state government in favour of their party candidates also exist on the part of the opposition group. There is also the anxiety that communities that are displaced as a result of previous attacks by unknown gunmen may be disenfranchise from exercising their civic rights to vote. It is therefore recommended that programmes in the area of governance such as Partnerships to Engage, Reform and Learn (PERL); civic education and election monitoring like Transition Monitoring Group (TMG); and peacebuilding such as NSRP to look into the possibilities of promoting inclusive and coordinated information sharing among various stakeholders in the electoral process to ensure credible election that is free of violence. The Plateau State Conflict Management Alliance convened by NSRP may well serve this purpose.

The decision of Kaduna State government to label the IMN as an insurgent group after prescribing them as an organisation further heightens the already existing tension. It is recommended that governance programmes support the management of the negative reactions and implications of the ban and proscription of the IMN. Programmes focused on military cooperation and security reform may consider influencing the adoption of a more coherent, rapid response and less-provocative approach to the mounting tensions in Southern Kaduna. The renewed attacks in Southern Kaduna pose a serious to peace and security in the zone. Programmes working on governance and security reform such as PERL may need to also consider additional programming that is focused on youth and criminal gang activity related in the Kaduna State. The rising incidence of armed robbery in the state especially on the federal highways leading in and out of the state indicates that road travel remains dangerous and precarious. Platforms like the SCMA can be further strengthened to widen their sources of information for early warning with the view of bridging the dearth of early warning coming from the communities and the security architecture in the State for response.

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta (Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta) The threat posed by cultism to peace and security has severe implications for programmes working on peacebuilding and human development. The high use of drugs by cultists is destroying a generation of youths who should be part of the state's productive labour force; and consequently, it poses a threat to economic development and poverty reduction. This means that the objectives of human development programmes will be undermined as this segment of the population can hardly be mobilized for the development process. Similarly, the safety and security threats posed by cultism have contributed to the wider security challenges which have driven some programmes and investors from the state. Programmes such as DFID have a standard practice of not allowing their personnel to sleep over in Yenagoa while others such as MADE has not been active in the state throughout this year 2016. Consequently, a multi-stakeholder collaboration between peacebuilding and human development programmes, security agencies, the Nigerian Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) and the state government is required is to deal with the menace. The expected peace resulting from the state government's new policy on a grazing area is also critical to peacebuilding and governance programs. At the moment, the policy is just a pronouncement by the Governor. For implementation to be effective, it will require the enactment of a legislation to guide state government officials, Herders, Cattle owners and law enforcement agencies. The Bayelsa State Conflict Management Alliance (BSCMA) has proposed a Bill on the regulation of Cattle breeding to the State House of Assembly and it would be useful for stakeholders to work together to ensure its passage and subsequent assent into law by the State Governor. Reports of the unending violence between Ogbe-Ijoh and Aladja communities on one hand and Enwhe and Igbide communities on the other hand over land boundaries disputes, suggest that affection and good neigbourliness is fast dying and in its place, hatred and distrust have taken root. Also, the herdsmen refusal to herd their cattle away from destroying farm crops and desist from molesting farmers, have the potentials of widening the gap of social disintegration and enthroning

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Therefore, it is recommended that programmes like UNICEF, PIND, Mercy Corps, DFID and others working on peace building and natural resources should continue to support CSOs, CPPs and other stakeholders to intensify advocacy visits to community leaders and youths and train them on the gains of peaceful coexistence, how to resolve conflicts without engaging in violence and the danger of social disintegration as have been observed in international contexts.

The election-associated violence and killing, the kidnappings and cult related killings have created an atmosphere of fear, insecurity, polarization and threats to peace and security in the state. Programmes such as the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP) should set up initiatives in partnership with the state to consciously discourage youth restiveness and violence. Programmes working on security and governance should continue to work with security agencies to deepen their professionalism and neutrality.

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