C O M P R E H E N S I V E N U C L E A R - T E S T - B A N T R E A T Y ( C T B T ) : S C I E N C E A N D T E C H N O L O G Y 2 0 1 1 PAGE 1C O M P R E H E N S I V E N U C L E A R - T E S T - B A N T R E A T Y ( C T B T ) : S C I E N C E A N D T E C H N O L O G Y 2 0 1 1

COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY:

SCIENCE A N DTECHNOLOGY2 1 3 C O N F E R E N C E

C T B T O . O R G / S n T 2013#SnT2013

CONFERENCE GOALS ◊ Capitalize on scientific and technological

innovations for verifying CTBT compliance

◊ Promote the wider scientific application of data that are used for test-ban verification

◊ Enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between the CTBTO and the broader scientific community

◊ Enlarge the scientific community engaged in test-ban monitoring

17–21 JUNEHOFBURG PALACE

VIENNA, AUSTRIAINVITATIONTo further build and strengthen its relationship with the broader scientific community, the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO)invites you to the SnT2013 Conference:

Scientists and technologists, science administrators, academics, scientific representatives to the CTBTO's policy-making organs, and representatives of agencies involved in research and development in areas potentially relevant to the Treaty’s verification regime. Members of the diplomatic community, the media and civil society are also welcome.

CALL FOR PAPERSDeadline for abstract submission:1 FEBRUARY 2013

THE EARTH AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM

Scientific and technical advances in monitoring the globe for nuclear explosions require a deep understanding of the way in which features of the Earth influence the relevant signals as they travel from their point of origin to where they are observed. The signals from monitoring networks constitute a huge database and support advances in the Earth Sciences on global, regional and local scales.

Seismic and acoustic signals propagate through the Earth, its atmosphere and its oceans. The Earth’s atmosphere also transports radioactive materials around the globe in minute concentrations, and its properties are relevant for different kinds of satellite observations.

This Theme focuses on any dynamic or static properties of the Earth that can be observed with seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound data, with radionuclide tracer observations, with on-site geophysical measurements or with other monitoring data. Studying these Earth properties in turn helps to improve the processing or interpretation of monitoring data.

TOPICS ◊ Structures in the geosphere, hydrosphere

and atmosphere on all scales

◊ Interactions between the geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere

◊ Scientific applications of seismoacoustic and radionuclide tracer data, e.g. for climate change research

◊ Data and models for predicting regional seismic travel times

◊ Data and models for predicting local geological changes

◊ Time-dependent atmospheric wave- speed models for infrasound propagation

◊ Using high-resolution geophysical techniques to explore underground features

◊ Atmospheric and sub-surface models of radionuclide tracer transport

◊ Follow-up to the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima accidents

Richard Garwin, physicist and scientific advisor to the U.S. government on nuclear weapons issues. Garwin was a keynote speaker at SnT2011.

The propagation of infrasound waves and interpretation of corresponding data depends to a large extent on prevailing atmospheric conditions.

Understanding the Earth’s complex structures and seismic wave propagation will benefit nuclear test detection.

David Strangway, a Canadian geophysicist and former chief of NASA’s Geophysics Branch. Strangway was also a keynote speaker at SnT2011.

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EVENTS AND THEIR CHARACTERIZATION

Events such as earthquakes, explosions or radionuclide releases produce signals and surface features that may be observed locally, regionally or globally. The events can be located in time and space and their characteristics can be estimated from the data that are collected.

This Theme covers the characterization of the source, the signals being emitted and what these reveal about the event and its environment. Only if the source is well characterized can its associated signals and anomalies be correctly analyzed and interpreted. To ensure compliance with the Treaty, it is essential to understand the way that nuclear explosions generate the full variety of signals, as well as being familiar with any other seismic, acoustic or radionuclide signals that could be confused with those of a nuclear explosion.

The Treaty’s provision for on-site inspections depends on a priori knowledge of the observables (telltale signs) that can be expected after a nuclear test and how these might be identified as geophysical anomalies or testing artefacts. The increasing database of recorded events and historical observables also establishes an asset for research on a wide range of scientific applications.

Probably the world’s most obvious “observable” – the crater from the 1962 U.S. Sedan test at the Nevada Test Site. The conference will discuss how to detect and identify far more subtle signs of nuclear explosions.

The French 2.6 megaton Canopus test in the South Pacific in 1968 would have been detected by many IMS stations had they existed at that time.

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The global spread of the radioactive isotopes

emitted by the Fukushima power plant in March

2011 was registered by CTBTO monitoring stations

worldwide.

TOPICS ◊ Location of seismic events

using realistic Earth models

◊ Location of infrasound events using realistic atmospheric models

◊ Constraining the source location of multiple atmospheric radionuclide observations

◊ Estimating source characteristics using global, regional and local networks

◊ Identification of well-characterized (ground truth) events

◊ Observation and evaluation of the effects of nuclear accidents

◊ Anthropogenic events and observables with relevance for on-site inspections

◊ Civil applications of event characterization and on-site inspection procedures

EVENTS AND THEIR CHARACTERIZATION

ADVANCES IN SENSORS, NETWORKS AND PROCESSING

The methods allowed for an on-site-Inspection may cover areas of up to 1,000 square kilometres for specific sites of interest. The methods used must be capable of detecting observables related to an event that triggered the on-site inspection, especially those related to a nuclear test, if any. These can include geophysical anomalies from several metres to several hundred metres in depth or radioisotope traces emanating from the surface, and other relevant features.

This Theme focuses on advances in sensors, networks and data processing for monitoring and inspection. Advances may come from the adaptation of methods already in use by specialists in other areas, such as satellite photography, or from the evolution of novel approaches within the CTBT scientific community that may spin off to other techniques. Many elements of the current monitoring effort are also used in other contexts, for example in the characterization of earthquakes, climate change studies, the measurement of atmospheric transportation, or the monitoring of releases from nuclear power plants.

“It is essential that the verification effort be enhanced through the adaptation and implementation of new ideas and through the paced adoption of novel technologies.

Lassina ZerboSnT PROJECT EXECUTIVE

TOPICS ◊ The design of monitoring networks

◊ Improving maintainability, reliability, and efficiency of systems and operations

◊ Comparison and integration of global, regional and on-site operational systems

◊ Integrated processing of disparate monitoring or inspection data (data fusion)

◊ Commercial and scientific applications with relevance to CTBT on-site inspections

◊ Data structures suitable for a machine learning approach for large data volumes

◊ Pathways for integrating scientific innovations into operational data processing

◊ Technology foresight over the horizon: future sensors, networks, data communications and data processing for global monitoring and on-site inspections

◊ Education, capacity building and knowledge transfer

Hydrophone recording of the tsunami that struck Japan in March 2011.

Ground penetrating radar will be used during on-site inspections to analyze shallow ground structures.

Lassina Zerbo, SnT Project Executive

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The 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions, everywhere and by everyone. The CTBTO is building a global verification regime to detect any violation of the Treaty.

THE CONFERENCE SERIES

The CTBTO relies on close cooperation with the scientific community to constantly refine its methods and ensure that the verification regime operates at the cutting edge of scientific knowledge. The exploration of the potential of IMS data for civil uses, such as disaster early warning, and other scientific applications, also requires a close partnership with the wider scientific community.

To that end, the CTBTO has conducted three multidisciplinary scientific conferences since 2006 that have attracted scientists and experts from a wide range of disciplines. Around five hundred scientists from all continents participated in the most recent conference, SnT2011, from 8 to 10 June 2011.

THE VERIFICATION REGIME

The International Monitoring System (IMS) will, when complete, consist of 337 facilities worldwide to monitor the planet for signs of nuclear explosions. Over 85% are already in operation.

The CTBTO’s International Data Centre continuously processes this data stream. Both IMS raw data and analysis results are made available to all 183 CTBTO Member States.

The processing and analysis of data from different sources must ultimately present an integrated picture to assist those who have to decide if an on-site inspection should be conducted in order to clarify whether the Treaty has been violated.

BACKGROUND

Communications system at the hydroacoustic station at the British Indian Ocean Territory, United Kingdom - one of 337 monitoring facilities scanning the globe around the clock for signs of nuclear explosions.

THE FOUR IMS TECHNOLOGIES

170 S E I S M I C stations monitor shockwaves in the Earth. The vast majority of these shockwaves are caused by earthquakes. But the stations also detect man-made explosions such as the North Korean nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

11 H Y D R O A C O U S T I C stations “listen” for sound waves in the oceans. Sound waves from explosions can travel extremely far underwater.

60 I N F R A S O U N D stations on the surface can detect ultra-low frequency sound waves – inaudible to the human ear – that are emitted by large explosions.

80 R A D I O N U C L I D E stations measure the atmosphere for radioactive particles; 40 of them also pick up noble gases. Only these measurements can give a clear indication as to whether an explosion was nuclear or not. They are supported by 16 radionuclide laboratories.

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REGISTRATION AND ABSTRACT SUBMISSIONAuthors are invited to register and submit abstracts of proposed contributions through the online registration and abstract submission forms available at www.ctbto.org/SnT2013. No registration fee will be charged. While authors can indicate their preference for an oral or poster presentation, the final choice will be made by the Scientific Programme Committee. By submitting an abstract, authors implicitly agree to the publication of their abstract and presentation materials by the CTBTO. Abstracts will be made available on our website and in a Book of Abstracts.

Deadline for abstract submission:1 FEBRUARY 2013

FINANCIAL SUPPORT Financial support may be available to a limited number of participants. Such assistance must be requested at the time of registration and no later than 1 FEBRUARY 2013. Financial support will be considered only for those who have submitted an abstract. Participants are strongly encouraged to first seek travel and participation funds from non-CTBTO sources.

LANGUAGEEnglish is the working language of the conference. All conference presentations and documents are expected to be submitted in English.

CONTACT Please visit www.ctbto.org/SnT2013 for updates on the

conference, registration or submission of abstracts and for

background information. For further information please contact

SnT@ctbto.org.

RAINIER ARNDT Chief, Equipment and Implementation Section, On-Site Inspection Division, CTBTO

RANDY BELL Director, Office of Nuclear Detonation Detection, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, USA

ELISABETH BLANC Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission (CEA), Bruyères-le-Châtel, France

JERRY CARTER Senior Performance Monitoring Officer, Office of the Director, International Data Centre Division, CTBTO

BRUNO FEIGNIER Head, Department of Analysis, Monitoring, Environment, CEA, DAM Ile-de-France, France

PATRICK GRENARD

Chief, Engineering and Development Section, International Monitoring System Division, CTBTO

WARD L. HAWKINS Program Manager, Nuclear Testing Limitations, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

ALIK ISMAIL-ZADEH Senior Scientist, Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

MARTIN KALINOWSKI Chief, Capacity Building and Training Section, International Data Centre Division, CTBTO

ROBERT KEMERAIT Senior Scientist, Nuclear Treaty Monitoring Directorate, United States Air Force/TT, USA

MARTIN LAWRENCE Former Chief, Hydroacoustic Section, International Monitoring System Division, CTBTO

ROBERT PEARCE Consultant, Office of the Director, International Data Centre Division, CTBTO

GERARD RAMBOLAMANANA Head, Institute and Observatory of Geophysics of Antananarivo (IOGA), University of Antananarivo, Madagascar

PAUL RICHARDS Professor Emeritus and Special Research Scientist, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA

MARTINA SCHWAIGER Director, Radionuclide Laboratory, Seibersdorf, Austria

VITALY SHCHUKIN Head of Laboratory, Theoretical Department of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center (VNIITF), Russian Federation

JACK SHLACHTER Deputy Division Leader, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

GERARDO SUAREZ Professor, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico

HARRI TOIVONEN Head of Laboratory, Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), Finland

LANMIN WANG Director and Professor, National Registered Geotechnical Engineer, Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, China

LASSINA ZERBO Director, International Data Centre Division, CTBTO

JOHN J. ZUCCA Program Director of Nonproliferation, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA

CALL FOR PAPERS

P U B L I S H E D B Y: © CTBTO Preparatory Commission, Printed in Austria, October 2012

SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME

COMMITTEE