COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY: TEN YEARS … · Provisional Technical Secretariat December 2006 Page 1 COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY: TEN YEARS AFTER Amb. Tibor Tóth

December 2006Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 1

COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY:TEN YEARS AFTER

Amb. Tibor TóthExecutive Secretary

Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty OrganizationProvisional Technical SecretariatVienna International CentreP.O. Box 1200A-1400 ViennaAUSTRIA

Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 2

Signatures and Ratifications of CTBT- 22 Jan 2007


Data from Remote Station, to Vienna, to State Signatory


Components of Verification Regime

InternationalMonitoring

System

321 stations:seismic,

hydroacoustic,infrasound,radionuclide

InternationalData

Centre

collect,analyse,

distributedata & products

On-SiteInspection

prepare forconduct of

on-siteinspection


International Monitoring System - Prospective321 Stations, 16 Radionuclide Laboratories

Seismic Primary ArraySeismic Primary 3-comp Station

Seismic Auxiliary ArraySeismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station

Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) StationHydroacoustic (T-phase) Station

Infrasound Station

Radionuclide Station

Radionuclide Lab


IMS Stations in IDC Operations - at 30 September 2006 (193 Stations)




Infrasound Station


Radionuclide Lab


Events Located by PTSEvents Located by PTS-- 21 February 2000 to 30 June 200621 February 2000 to 30 June 2006

152,416 Events

~25k/year


Data Processing, Analysis, Screening, Fusion, Review, Access

FusedProducts &ExecutiveSummaries

(daily)

Outputs:Outputs:

Seismic Hydro-acoustic

Infra-sound

Radionuclide

StandardEvent List

1

StandardEvent List

2

StandardEvent List

3

Reviewed& Standard

Event Bulletins

StandardScreened

EventBulletin

ReviewedRadnuc.Report

FinalQualityReview

(done for allreviewedproducts)

AuxiliarySeismic

EventScreening

AnalystReview

FissionProduct

Screening

AutomaticRadnuc.Report

Raw Data

AnalystReview

Logarithmic Time Scale

1 hr 6 hrs4 hrs2 hrs 10 hrs 1 day 2 days 1 wk 2 wks

StandardScreenedRadnuc.Event

Bulletin

Allrawdata

(cont.)

Inputs:Inputs: (accessible as soon as it arrives)

Pipeline of the International Data Centre


Seismic - Research on earthquake/volcanic eruption prediction- Studies on the structure of the earth

Hydroacoustic - Location of underwater volcanic events- Monitoring of sea temperature and signs of global warming

Potential civil and scientific applications were identified and examined during three scientific experts discussions held in:2002 (London, UK), 2003 (Sopron, Hungary), 2004 (Berlin, Germany):

Infrasound - Detection of volcanic eruptions (possible effects on aviation)- Oceanic swell research- Atmospheric and meteorological studies- Detection of meteor impacts in the atmosphere

Radionuclide - Radiation monitoring on possible radioactive releases- Studies on natural radioactivity- Atmospheric monitoring and biological research

Civil and Scientific Applications of CTBT Verification Technologies


Indian Ocean Tsunamigenic Earthquake- Main Shock and Aftershocks

Over 800 aftershocks (black dots) recorded

Main Shock

Location: 3.33° North

95.78° East

Magnitudes: mb = 5.7 (body-wave)Ms = 8.3 (surface wave)

Origin Time: 00:58:48.87 UTC

Main shock from the Reviewed Event Bulletin

26 Dec. 2004 to 02 Jan. 2005


Seismic Primary Array

Seismic Primary 3-comp Station

Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station

Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station

Infrasound Station

Tsunami Warning Centre

Tsunami Warning Centres Data SupplyingExperimental mode via IDC

Japan19 Seismic Stations

1 Hydroacoustic

Hawaii6 Seismic Stations


Seismic Primary Array

Seismic Primary 3-comp Station

Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station

Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station

Infrasound Station

Tsunami Warning Centre

Tsunami Warning Centres Data SupplyingExperimental mode via IDC

Australia12 Seismic Stations

1 Hydroacoustic2 Infrasound

Malaysia2 Tsunami Centers7 Seismic Stations2 Hydroacoustic


•Map of the Region with the REB Events since•the beginning of IDC Operations


•

INGE stations planned to be operating by end 2006INGE stations planned to be operating by end 2006(coordinates are PrepCom II recommendations)(coordinates are PrepCom II recommendations)

ARIXSAUNASPALAX

ARX01 Buenos Aires

CAX05 Ottawa

CAX16 Yellowknife

CAX17 St. John’s

CNX20 Beijing

DEX33 Schauinsland

FRX27 Papeete

MNX45 Ulaanbaatar

RUX61 DubnaSEX63 Stockholm

NOX49 SpitsbergenAUX09 Darwin

JPX38 Takasaki

PAX50 Panama City

Active in INGE


Noble gases: the Noble gases: the ““smoking gunsmoking gun”” of of an underground nuclear explosionan underground nuclear explosion

• How? 3 Scenarios3 Scenarios

• Early venting due to high pressure of the explosion and other dynamic effects (pushes gas through cracks and fissures in the bedrock)

• Venting due to opening of tunnels or drilling of holes etc. for measurements of the test can happen days till weeks after the event

• Sucking of gases (among others, radioxenon) from deposits in the walls of cracks and fissures by low pressure weather systems

• An underground nuclear test creates seismic waves, possibly hydro-acoustic /infra-sound coupling

• Radionuclide monitoring provides the only direct method with the potential to establish whether a nuclear explosion has occurred

• A contained underground nuclear explosion may emit radioactive noble gases into the atmosphere


Source of meteorological data Source of meteorological data utilized in all ATMutilized in all ATM

European Meteorological Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

ECMWF is accepted as the best provider of global meteorological data sets

Number of observations used daily exceeds 6 million

These include 29 different types of satellite observation


•

INGE stations planned to be operating by end 2006INGE stations planned to be operating by end 2006(coordinates are PrepCom II recommendations)(coordinates are PrepCom II recommendations)

ARIXSAUNASPALAX

ARX01 Buenos Aires

CAX05 Ottawa

CAX16 Yellowknife

CAX17 St. John’s

CNX20 Beijing

DEX33 Schauinsland

FRX27 Papeete

MNX45 Ulaanbaatar

RUX61 DubnaSEX63 Stockholm

NOX49 SpitsbergenAUX09 Darwin

JPX38 Takasaki

PAX50 Panama City

Active in INGE


IMS Stations in IDC Operations - at 30 September 2006 (193 Stations)




Infrasound Station


Radionuclide Lab


•Average Detection Capability of the IMS•Network during the hour of the event


International Monitoring System - Prospective321 Stations, 16 Radionuclide Laboratories




Infrasound Station


Radionuclide Lab


Summary on IDC Secure Summary on IDC Secure WebsiteWebsite

• IDC Secure Webpage – Documents – Information related to…


•Secure Signatory Accounts as of •12 October 2006

TOTAL: 93 States with 780 Users (Principal Users - 504, Regular Users - 200 and Station Operators - 76)

Eastern Europe North America and Western EuropeAlbania Hungary Austria France SpainArmenia Lithuania Belgium Germany SwedenAzerbaijan Poland Canada Greece SwitzerlandBelarus Romania Cyprus Iceland TurkeyBulgaria Russian Federation Denmark Italy UKCzech Republic Slovakia Finland Netherlands USAEstonia Slovenia NorwayGeorgia UkraineLatin America and the Caribbean South-East Asia, the Pacific and the Far EastArgentina Honduras Australia New Zealand ThailandBelize Jamaica China Papua New Guinea Viet NamBolivia Mexico Indonesia PhilippinesBrazil Panama Japan Republic of KoreaChile Paraguay Malaysia Solomon IslandsCosta Rica PeruEcuador UruguayEl Salvador VenezuelaGuatemala

Africa Middle East and South AsiaAlgeria Libya Nigeria Bangladesh KyrgyzstanBotswana Madagascar South Africa Iran (Islamic Republic of) OmanBurkina Faso Malawi Tunisia Israel Sri LankaEgypt Mali Uganda Jordan TajikistanEthiopia Morocco Zambia Kazakhstan UzbekistanKenya Namibia Zimbabwe Kuwait


Thank youThank you