Communications Research Laboratory

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Future Mobile CommunicationsIn The Networked Societies

Shingo OhmoriCommunications Research Laboratory

shingo@crl.go.jp

August 8, 2002Stanford University

Communications Research Laboratory

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Contents

Some Statistics of Internet and Mobile Communications

Future Trends of Mobile Communications

R&D for Future Mobile Communications

Support of Social Activities by Wireless in Networked Society

Conclusion

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Penetration Rates of Internet in the World

27.5%36.4%

39.7%43.5%43.9%44.0%

46.4%46.8%

49.9%50.8%51.9%

53.3%54.4%54.4%55.3%

58.1%59.0%59.8%60.4%60.8%

64.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

IrelandGermanyBermuda

AustriaFinlandJ apan

South KoreaSwitzerland

New ZealandSingapore

TaiwanCanada

AustraliaNorwayEnglandHolland

Hong Kong US

DenmarkIcelandSweden

As of March 2002Cited from NUA (http://www.nua.ie/)

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Internet Users in the World

11.9

15.7

19.3

22.2

30.2

33.0

33.7

55.9

166.1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Uses (Million)

Brazil

France

Italy

South Korea

Germany

UK

China

J apan

USA

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5Required Years for Attaining the 10% Penetration Rates ofthe Major Telecommunication Media in Japan

Investigated by “Survey of the Communication Usage Trend ” of MPT

Years

76

24

19

15

13

5

0 20 40 60 80

Telephone

Pager

Facsimile

Cellular Phones

Personal Computer

Internet

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6Penetration Rates of Mobile Phones in the world

5

19

34

41

41

45

47

52

56

59

62

64

64

69

70

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

China

Malaysia

USA

Germany

France

Australia

Japan

UK

Korea

Singapore

Italy

Sweden

Norway

Hong Kong

Finland

Penetration Rate (%)

as of June 2000

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7Numbers of Subscribers of Wired and Wireless phones in Japan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90.3 91.3 92.3 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.3 97.3 98.3 99.3 00.3 01.3 02.3

Year. Month

Sub

scrib

ers

(Millio

n)

Wired

Wireless(PDC+PHS)

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8Internet Mobile Phones- (internet phones/Mobile phones)-

5.6%

6.6%

6.9%

7%

7.9%

7.9%

9.4%

13.8%

16.5%

59.1%

72.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

France

Taiwan

UK

Italy

Germany

USA

Singapore

Canada

Finland

South Korea

J apan

(as of 2001.12)

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Penetration of Broadband Access

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Su

bsc

rib

ers

(Th

ou

san

ds)

USA SouthKorea

J apan Germany UK France Singapore Malaysia

Optical FiberDSLCableothers

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Data Rates of Typical Media

6

15

70

200

600

3,500

12,000

1

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Mobile phone

PHS

IMT- 2000/ Moving

CD

ITT- 2000/ Indoor

Home Video

DVD

Studio ＴＶ

User Data Rate (x10 kbps)

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Tele-medicineTele-medicine

Online-GovernmentOnline-Government

Cyber TheaterCyber TheaterWelfareWelfare

Wireless AccessCellular

HAPS

Satellite

ITSSystem Handover System Handover

Syst

em H

ando

ver

SkyNet

System Handover

Switch

Base station

New Generation Mobile

Cyber Attac

k

Broadband Backbone Networks

Networked Society

Social Activities In Networked Society-Bridging the Digital Divide-

Online CommerceOnline Commerce

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Multimedia Information Multimedia Information

Requirement Requirement TechnologiesTechnologies

Requirements for Networked Society

Broadband Networks Broadband Networks

Anywhere, anytime Anywhere, anytime Mobile Communications Mobile Communications

Security Security Data Encryption Data Encryption

Barrier Free Barrier Free Human Interface Human Interface

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13Three Categories of Future Mobile Communications

New Generation Mobile Communications– Broadband access (High data rate)– High mobility– Several systems coexist– Seamless connections to different systems

Ad-hoc Wireless – Bluetooth– Ultra Wide Band

Information Barrier Free– Wireless support for senior and handicapped people – Easy access to the Information for social activities

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14Generations of mobile communications and their keywords and typical systems

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Generation 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation

Key words Analogue Digital Global Broadband Broadband

Personal World standards High mobility High mobility

Seamless roamig(IP-based)

Bariier free ?

Analogue Cellular Digital Cellular IMT-2000 4G-cellular 5G-cellular

Systems GSM, IS-54, PDC (3G-cellular)

Analogue Cordless Digital Cordless

DECT, PHS Max Data rate Max Data rate Max Data rate

2 Mbps 1 Gbps 10 Gbps？

Mobile Stellite

Iridium, Inmarsat-M

Broadband access, ITS, HAPS

Broadband Access

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15ITM-2000The 3rd generation mobile communication systems

Present IMT-2000

Indoor O ffi c eWireless LAN(11 Mbit/ s） 2.048 Mbit/ s

Outdoor toIndoor andPedestrian

PHS (64 kbit/ s） 384 kbit/ s

Vehicular Cellular (9.6 kbit s／ ） 144 kbit/ s

Satellite Inmarsat-M(6 kbit s／ ） 9.6 kbit/ s

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16FOMA by DoCoMo-IMT-2000 with W-CDMA-

Start: 2001.10 Coverage : about 70% of population (2002.3) Main services– High speed data:384 kbps– TV-phone : 64 kbps– Movies, News– i-mode

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Dark blue color indicates existing capabilities, medium blue color indicates enhancements to IMT-2000, and the lighter blue color indicates new capabilities of Systems Beyond IMT-2000

New Generation of Mobile Communication Systems- ITU-R WP8F : Illustration of Capabilities of IMT2000 and Systems Beyond -

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HDR Access

Cellular

HAPS

Satellite

ITSSystem Handover System Handover

Syste

m H

ando

ver

SkyNet

System Handover

Switch

Base Station

Broadband Fixed Backbone 　 Networks

New Generation of Mobile Communications-New concept of system roaming among different systems-

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19Why does high speed data transmission difficult in mobile environments?

Broadband transmission is difficult– The higher the data rate, the wider the frequency band

»Fading effect becomes large.»It needs more electric power.

LargeSmall

InformationInformation

Transmission rateFrequency bandwidth

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20Why does high speed data transmission difficult in mobile environments?

Signal strength varies according to time and space.

Signal strength becomes weak dependingon propagation distance.

ReceivedpowerTransmitted power

Antenna gainAntenna gainLarge antenna→Big gain

Reflection and scatteringFading