Virginia Coastal Zone .111,1 MANAGEMENT PROGRAM

Virginia Commonwealth University, Center for Environmental Studies

Coastal Management GIS Support & Coastal GEMS

Maintenance: FY13 Annual Report

October 1st 2013 – September 30th 2014

NOAA Grant # NA13NOS4190168

Grant Year FY2013, Task #1.02

2

Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program’s Coastal GIS Coordinator. The Coastal GIS Coordinator position is provided through a contract with Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center for Environmental Studies and is funded by the Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program at the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality through Grant # NA13NOS4190168 from the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended. Introduction This report outlines tasks performed and products created under task #1.02 by the Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program’s Coastal GIS Coordinator and by staff of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center for Environmental Studies during the grant year FY2013 (October 1st 2013 – September 30th 2014). This report does not include an image of every map product created for task #1.02 during FY2013. Instead, the images in this report are a sample of the map products created selected to best illustrate each product description. Contents

Coastal GEMS Mapping Application

o Hosting, Maintenance………………………………....…………..................…..3

o Updates…………………………………………………….………….……...…….3

o Google Analytics Tracking………………………………..……………....…..…..3

o Training…………………………………………………..……..…........................3

o Data Management……………………………………...……………………….....4-5

Coastal GIS Coordination

o Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive……………………………………..….6

o Eastern Shore Seaside Eelgrass Planning..…………………………………....7

o Virginia Atlantic Coast Aerial Recreational Use Survey ……………………....8

o New Jersey Participatory Recreational Use Mapping Workshop……...……..9

Training and Outreach……………………………….…………………………..………….10

GIS Map Products and Services

o CZM Partner Requested…………………………..………………………………11

o CZM Staff Requested……………………..……………………………………….12

Appendix

o Google Analytics Report……………………………………………………….…..13-14

o Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive Fact Sheet……………………………15

o Sea Level Rise Fact Sheet and Screenshots……………………………………16-17

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Coastal GEMS Mapping Application Maintenance Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center for Environmental Studies (VCU CES) continued to host the Coastal GEMS online mapping application through the FY13 grant period and VCU CES staff performed routine maintenance and updates on Coastal GEMS during this time. Tasks included refreshing map services, updating data and cartography in the map file as per CZM staff request, and installing software and security upgrades. Coastal Gems remained operational throughout the FY13 grant period and was only offline to install software/security updates or to refresh map services. During the FY13 grant period, at CZM staff request, VCU CES staff updated the data and symbology on eight currently in production GEMS layers and added two new data layers and one new map service. The Coastal GIS Coordinator processed GIS data layers for effective display on Coastal GEMS and uploaded layers to VCU to be added to Coastal GEMS. GEMS fact sheets were added/updated where applicable. Layers updated: conservation lands, public access lands, private oyster leases, anadromous fish use, public access sites, scenic rivers, oyster gardening, and important bird areas Layers added: Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive and Coastal Planning District Commission Boundaries Map services added in this reporting period: NOAA sea level rise data with layers in 1 ft increments from MHHW through 6 feet of projected sea level rise. Google Analytics services for Coastal GEMS set up by VCU CES staff remained operational throughout the FY13 grant period. VCU CES staff created Google Analytics reports at CZM staff request by querying specific date ranges. From October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014, Coastal GEMS received 1,171 visits from 606 unique visitors resulting in 1,514 pageviews and an average site visit time of 2 minutes and 22 seconds. The full Google Analytics report for the Coastal GEMS mapping application during the FY13 grant period can be found in the appendix of this report.

Left: A screenshot from Coastal GEMS showing selected layers from the shellfish management map service.

Right: A screenshot from Coastal GEMS showing selected layers from the coastal access map service.

Coastal GEMS can be accessed at: www.coastalgems.org

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Coastal GEMS Data Management The Coastal GIS Coordinator requested and obtained available data updates for current Coastal GEMS layers from data providers, processed data for display on GEMS, and updated the Coastal GEMS factsheets and website as necessary. In addition two new data layers and one new map service were added to the Coastal GEMS mapping portal during the FY13 grant period. See below for details. Coastal Planning District Commission Boundaries

.

Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive Data

As requested by the VA CZM Coastal Policy Team, a data layer displaying the boundaries of VA’s eight coastal Planning District Commissions (and accompanying fact sheet ) is now included under the reference layers category in Coastal GEMS.

The Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive data and fact sheet on Coastal GEMS. See the appendix of this report for the full fact sheet text.

How is this resource managed?

Mode; r.g Mule sea !even rise allows us to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience further into the future by incorporating sea love: :se K C panning Cannon, to nei p state and officials, community planners, and infrastoldid re managers understand poss,h4e trture risks.

Liaks to Mid more iaMmurtion about how this resource Er manage&

NOAA Digital Coast. Conserving Coastal Wetlands for Sea Level Rise Adaptation

NOAA Digital Coast Incorporating Sea Level Chancre Scenarios at the Local Level

Yroinia (2M Program. Climate Orange Adaptation Efforts

Why was the GIS data created?

These data 'were created as part of tie National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrat a - Casa Stn. n

depicting potential sea level rise and it associated impacts on the nation's coastal ream

scientists with a preliminary look at sea level rise isle; and coast, f impacts, T, -

and aralysesData and maps provided canbeused at , - c . -cs anci pfc - • - Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer may be accessed ad •

or different seer. no., T-a _a .a

Links to projects that funded this dans acquisition:

NOAA Office for Coastal Management Digital Coast

How was the GIS data created? These data can e'E emer ^:rt,...71% CC,5-5 areas resulting from a projected I tot feet rise in sea level above carrert Vaa- Hir renal c-

(MHHW) con, - - - • -='^e oats can be described as a modified bathtub appnoach that attempts no an „ _

tiaa I ran ab f: --, process uses two source datasets to derive is firm) inundatlon raste-s - --- - - ---- . rg

low- L -; : c • : nemt o - :'.ar 7 - ,Df 7, E earflap Model (DEM] of the area and a tidal surface mode M m : : , createe : . : curds Survey's VDATUM datum transformation software :15: . -

mrpolatio, ernmc °presents the MeHW tidal datum in gds.:metric valaes LA., -

Future Clirections?

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Peg,- an update Strategy, Th s strategy will Include emMinatian of new elevation data sets as they berlarne availablie to detinntine if a dsne v.,' r

treouentiv Asked Questions

Coastal GEMS Factsheffil

Vir —ginia Coastal Zone •••%t .

Coastal GEMS Legend

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Sea Level Rise Map Service The Coastal GIS Coordinator obtained sea level rise data from NOAA Office for Coastal Management’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer so that it could be incorporated into Coastal GEMS and considered in conjunction with other data hosted on GEMS. The Coastal GIS Coordinator processed the data to allow fast, simple display on the Coastal GEMS application and provided VCU CES GIS staff with a symbolized ArcGIS map package used to create a new sea level rise map service available through Coastal GEMS. The Coastal GIS Coordinator also created a fact sheet incorporating information and links about the data, sea level rise in general, its specific impacts in Virginia, and the additional features and functions of the Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer available through Digital Coast.

Right: A map created using Coastal GEMS showing the potential inundation of Gwynn Island, VA after a projected 1 foot of sea level rise. Below: A screenshot of factsheet for the sea level rise data on Coastal GEMS.

See the appendix of this report for the full fact sheet text as well as more screenshots of the sea level rise data on Coastal GEMS, including layers in 1 ft increments from MHHW through 6 feet of projected sea level rise.

What:

We are interviewing Accornack & Northampton County residents to create

an archive of stories of changes to the natural environment.

When:

Thursday, April 3, 2014

10:00 am - 12:00 pm

Where -

A-NPDC Conference Room,

23372 Front Street, Accomac

Far More info:

Contort Curt Smith,

Director of Plannin: at

csMith@a-npdc.brg

What is Being Mapped:

Po Level Rise/Recurrent Roodina-Related Chances:

1.Areas That Have Become Permanently inundated-

Places that used to be dry land and are now underwater the majority of the time. Example: a field that Once was farmed and has converted to marsh over the decades.

2.Areas That Have Became More Consistently

Inundated - Places that at one time rarely or never flooded, but now are commonly underwater. Example: "ivly yard was rarely underwater during storms but now it happens with almost every little storm or lull moon tide."

3.Changes to Types of Vegetation - Observed changes

in the types of yegetatiOn in an area including loss of upland forests (ghost forests), emergent wetland grasses/shrubs. loss of wetland grasses/shrubs, emergent tidal salt marsh grass.,

or loss of tidal salt marsh grasses.Twarnple: 'The woods along my creek were once full of healthy trees and now there are only a few unhealthy remaining trees and many new types of shrubs that didn't used to be there

Ornate Chance-Related Changer 1.Changes in Timing of Arrival of Migratory Wildlife

Species - Example, "I've noticed that the hottenlies arrive to my house a week or two earlier each year than they used to when I was a child."

2.(langes in Timing of Arrival of Migratory Aquatic

Species - Example: "4 can catch stripers off of my deck a lot corker in the season than E used to."

3.Vegetatiee Species Growing Season Changes -Example: 'We never uSedtO be able to plant our garden here as early as we are able to do It nowadays"

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Proiect Background: Sea level has risen nearly 420 feet in the past le,600 years and nearly 1.5 feet since the 1930s, The Shore's coastlines are constantly responding to these changing conditions. Additionally, water temperatures are on the rise and the Shore's climate has warmed bringing a variety of changes to the types and abundances of wildlife and aquatic Ire, the times that -certain species migrate through the region, and the growing seasons of our vegetative species,

We are working with Eastern Shore residents to compile their stories, observations, and historical documents to create the Coastal Change Archive

As someone who has extensive experience observing the natural environment on the Eastern Shore, your input is extremely valuable to building then. Coastal Change Archive.

How You Will Be Interviewed: Participants will tell stories to A-NPDC staff & the stories will be documented using a

computer & "e-beam" technology to produce a map of the observed changes But don't worry! No computer experience is necessary and A.NPDC staff wilt help you every step along the way. Pardcipants will draw on digital maps projected onto a wall using a stylus that emits signals

to an adjacent reader which immediately adds the shape they draw to the map. This innovative method quickly & efficiently allows users to share their thoughts, compare notes& learn from others in the group.

hell will be asked to share your story. the location where you made your observations, and the timerarne over which you made the observations_ Participants are encouraged to bring photos or any other documentation they have to help illustrate the changes they have observed.

Why Participate? Tour stores Will become the baseline for evaluating the impacts of future Changes to our climate and water levels. The Archive will be made available on the MIA & A-NPOC websites as a historic and cultural public resource_

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Eastern Shore of Virginia Coastal Change Archive ProjectIM

6

Coastal GIS Coordination

Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive The Coastal GIS Coordinator worked with Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission (ANPDC) staff on the Coastal Change Archive project including helping design and run participatory GIS sessions with long term residents of the Eastern Shore to map climate change witnessed over their lifetimes, processing data to create the final geodatabase, and symbolizing data for inclusion under the Coastal GEMS ‘Coastal Land’ category.

Left: The Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive Project flyer shared with potential participants for each mapping session. Below: A picture from the second participatory mapping session on April 24, 2014 at the Barrier Island Center in Machipongo, VA.

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%of 5.40 in POI Currant SAV in POE 796 4.6% Potential SAY In POL 391 2.2% Total Current + Potential 1187 BB%

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7

New proposed SAV set-aside area maps with acreage breakdowns created by the Coastal GIS Coordinator to be presented to the VMRC Board.

Eastern Shore Seaside Eelgrass Planning The Coastal GIS Coordinator continued to work with the Seaside Special Area Management Plan (SAMP) group. During the FY13 grant period that work focused on planning for future eelgrass expansion on the Seaside of VA’s Eastern Shore. During a meeting with VMRC regulatory staff, VIMS scientists, and local planners, the Coastal GIS Coordinator utilized participatory GIS to map potential eelgrass expansion areas on the seaside of VA’s Eastern Shore. The Coastal GIS Coordinator then made calculations comparing potential expansion to current SAV coverage, public and private shellfish grounds, and open water, and provided maps and tables of the data to VIMS staff for use in a presentation to the VMRC Board. This presentation resulted in a resolution by the commission to expand current SAV set-aside areas.

When VMRC resolved to expand current SAV set-aside areas they asked VIMS staff to create boundaries for new potential SAV set-asides, based on the future potential expansion of eelgrass on the seaside, to bring back before the board. The Coastal GIS Coordinator organized a call and subsequent participatory GIS webinar with VMRC regulatory staff, VIMS scientists, and local planners to successfully design and digitize four new proposed SAV set-aside area boundaries on the Seaside of the Eastern Shore. The Coastal GIS Coordinator created maps of the new proposed SAV set-aside areas that will be presented to the VMRC Board at their January 2015 meeting.

Map and statistics created by the Coastal GIS Coordinator utilized by VIMS staff for presentation to VMRC resulting in a resolution to expand current SAV set-aside areas.

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Virginia Atlantic Coast Aerial Recreational Use Survey In FY11 the Coastal GIS Coordinator worked with ANPDC staff to design a methodology for recreational use survey flights utilizing VMRC enforcement aircraft and pilots, and ANPDC staff equipped with GPS enabled digital cameras. This methodology was used to collect recreational use data along VA’s Atlantic coast during a series of flights in 2012 and 2013. Building on that work during the FY13 grant period, the Coastal GIS Coordinator worked with ANPDC staff to compile and process data from 13 aerial recreational use survey flights covering the seaside of Virginia’s Eastern Shore and created a series of maps summarizing the data and maps comparing weekday and weekend use for nine distinct recreational uses as well as maps of survey flight lines. The full methodology for data collection and map creation, as well as the rest of the maps, can be found in the final report for FY12 Task 96, NA12NOS4190168.

The Coastal GIS Coordinator also set up GIS data input process for the VA CZM Ocean Planning Stakeholder Engagement Coordinator, facilitating creation of recreational use spatial data from geotagged aerial photos of Virginia Beach consistent to data created for the Eastern Shore portion of the project and created a map showing the study area boundaries for each portion of the project for each grantee to use in their respective reports.

How do you recreate on New Jersey's Ocean and Bay?

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Why Participate? New Jersey's waters are getting busier everyday!

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Reserve your spot today!

RSVP to: Jeanne 1I.h, Atami.ainxrtur

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9

New Jersey Participatory Recreational Use Mapping Workshop The Coastal GIS Coordinator remained a regional resource on participatory GIS in FY13, helping to setup and run participatory GIS mapping sessions at recreational use mapping workshops in Southern New Jersey November 13

th-15

th

and in Northern New Jersey November 19th-21

st. The Coastal GIS Coordinator was the only GIS staff person to

participate in these workshops for all of the Mid Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO) states, beginning with VA’s workshop in 2012 and including subsequent workshops in MD, DE, and NJ.

Above: The New Jersey Atlantic Coast Recreational Use Mapping Project flyer shared with potential participants. Right: Participants in a breakout group mapping recreational uses at the Southern New Jersey workshop in Mays Landing.

Left: Participants in a breakout group mapping recreational uses at the Northern New Jersey workshop in West Long Branch.

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466Ostal GEMS - Virginia Coastal Geospatal & 41V". Educational Mang S

What Is Coastal GEMS?

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Mimi D'Iorio Ocean Use Mopping Coordinator ,—. NOAA's P675 Process

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Laura McKay Virginia & MARCO Program Manager =—> Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program

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Nick Meade Spatial Data and

CyanmO G-15 Coordinator Virginia Coastal lone Management Program Products

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Expert Knowledge

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Filling Spatial Data Gaps

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Coastal Resource Management

Using Participatory GIS to Map

Ocean Uses in the Mid-Atlantic

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Training and Outreach The Coastal GIS Coordinator helped to plan, prepare for, and staff a VA CZM Coastal and Ocean Mapping exhibit during the week of January 20th-24th, 2014. The exhibit included a Coastal GEMS display with updated display panels, factsheets, and a computer set up for live demos of the application that displayed screenshots of GEMS v3 features when not in use. The Coastal GIS Coordinator presented on VA CZM’s experience utilizing participatory GIS to map recreational uses of the ocean to over 60 participants on a NOAA Office for Coastal Management Ocean Uses webinar on May 1, 2014.

The Coastal GIS Coordinator ran a participatory GIS session to help introduce the Chesapeake Bay NERR Pilot Project of the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats and participated in a workshop to discuss three recreation surveys (PGIS, Boater, and Surfrider) happening in the Mid-Atlantic.

Right: Updated Coastal GEMS fact sheet

Left: A screenshot from the participatory GIS session to help introduce the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool. Center: A map comparing recreational use data mapped by VA CZM through aerial survey and through participatory GIS.

Above: Selected slides from the NOAA Office for Coastal Management Participatory GIS webinar

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GIS Map Products and Services CZM Partner Request The Coastal GIS Coordinator completed 306A SHPO clearance required DHR archive searches (and project area maps where applicable) for CZM funded projects including a VIMS seaside restoration project, a Northern Virginia Regional Commission conservation landscaping project, and a town of Cape Charles signage project. The Coastal GIS Coordinator also converted GIS data to KMZ files for Middle Peninsula Planning District Commission staff to view in Google Earth and created maps of each use from the VA Atlantic Coast Recreational Use Mapping Project for ANPDC staff to use in their final report (FY 2011, Task 96, NA11NOS4190122).

Clockwise from top left: Project area map for NVRC landscaping project, DHR archive search for VIMS seaside restoration project, one of 22 use maps created from Atlantic Coast Recreational Use Mapping Project data, Virginia 5th order NWBD HUC code data converted to Google Earth .kmz format.

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CZM Staff Request The Coastal GIS Coordinator produced a large scale Coastal VEVA map of Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck, created a regional map for the NOVA native plant guide, created location maps for use in VA CZM magazine articles highlighting CZM funded public access projects, and worked with VA CZM Outreach Coordinator to create aerial imagery panels and a route map to the Cape Charles Natural Area Preserve for an interpretive signage kiosk in Cape Charles, VA.

Left: Coastal VEVA and other resources on VA’s Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. Right and Below: Natural Area Preserve route map and aerial imagery panels for an interpretive signage kiosk in Cape Charles.

Left: Map created for NOVA native plant guide including digitized fall line. Right: CZM funded public access project site locator map created for CZM fall 2014 magazine.

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15

Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive Fact Sheet

Permanent Inundation of Low-Lying

Areas

The Eastern Shore of Virginia Coastal Change Archive is a compilation of

accounts solicited from local residents of observations made regarding

changes to the natural environment related to sea level rise and climate

change.

Status of the data The data was created and first populated during a series of workshops with

Accomack and Northampton County residents in May 2014.

Data Source 2014. Eastern Shore Coastal Change Archive.. Accomack-Northampton

Planning District Commission.

To access this data layer/tool directly, please

visit: Sorry, this data is not directly accessible.

These homes on the South end of Cedar Island eventually succumbed to the ocean in the winter of

2011-2012. Much of the island itself at that spot disappeared during Hurricane Sandy. Photo by Curt Smith.

For original datasets, please contact:

Curt Smith, Director of Planning

P.O. Box 417

Accomac, VA 23301.00000000 Phone: 757-787-2936

Fax: 757-787-4221

Email: csmith@a-npdc.org

Why should we care? Sea level has risen nearly 420 feet in the past 18,000 years and nearly 1.5 feet since the 1930s. The Eastern Shore’s coastlines are constantly responding to these changing

conditions. Additionally, water temperatures are on the rise and the Eastern Shore’s climate has warmed bringing a variety of changes to the types and abundances of wildlife and

aquatic life, the times that certain species migrate through the region, and the growing seasons of our vegetative species. Eastern Shore residents share a unique connection to the natural environment and are well aware of the changes that occur to it. The Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission is engaging residents to compile their stories,

observations, and historical documents to create the Coastal Change Archive which will serve as a historical resource for current and future generations to better understand how

seascapes, landscapes, and organisms are responding to changes in the natural environment. The Archive will also serve as a baseline for evaluating the impacts of future changes

to our climate and water levels. Examples of stories in the Archive include: “I’ve lived in this house my entire life and the flood waters never came in the yard when I was younger.

It seems like every storm brings the water here now.” “My family had been working this farm for generations until my grandparents moved away in 1926. The fields became too

wet for the tractors. There weren’t any crops that could grow there with that much saltwater flooding. There are tidal marsh grasses in the fields now where my family once tilled

that land.’ “My friends and I used to camp and play games in that pine forest when I was a child. Only a few dead trunks remain today.” “I’m finding that my garden is active later

in the Fall by several weeks than back in the 1960s.”

Links to find more information: Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission

ESVA Climate Adaptation Working Group

How is this resource managed? The Coastal Change Archive will continue to be populated using participatory GIS at public workshops hosted by the Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission

where people can continue to share their observations and experiences.

Links to find more information about how this resource is managed:

Why was the GIS data created? The Coastal Change Archive was created to establish a baseline dataset for evaluating the impacts of future changes to local climate and sea level. The Archive is intended to serve

as both a cultural and historical resource that can raise awareness and generate interest in the issues of climate change and sea level rise and their expected impacts on Eastern

Shore communities.

Links to projects that funded this data acquisition:

How was the GIS data created? The data was created by interviewing Eastern Shore residents using participatory GIS methods. Staff from the Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission were

responsible for facilitating the process and taking notes. VCZM Staff were responsible for overseeing the GIS programming. Participants shared stories which will be documented

using a computer & “e-beam” technology to produce a map of the observed changes. Participants will drew on digital maps projected onto a wall using a stylus that emits signals

to an adjacent reader which immediately adds the shape they draw to the map. This innovative method quickly & efficiently allows users to share their thoughts, compare notes &

learn from others in the group. Participants were asked to share their story, the location where the observation was made, and the timeframe over which the observation was made.

Participants were encouraged to share photos or any other documentation they have to help with illustrating the story.

Future Directions? The Eastern Shore of Virginia Climate Adaptation Working Group, under the direction of the Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission, will continue to oversee and

maintain the Archive. The Archive will be populated at future public workshops where residents will have the opportunity to share their stories using participatory GIS.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do I need any experience working with GIS to participate and share my stories for the project? No computer experience is necessary and A-NPDC staff will help you every step along the way.

16

Sea Level Rise Fact Sheet

Sea Level Rise

Description These data, which depict the potential inundation of coastal areas resulting from a projected 1 to 6 feet rise in sea level above current Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) conditions, allow the visualization of potential impacts

from sea level rise to coastal communities in Virginia. They were created as part of the NOAA Office for Coastal

Management’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer (see link below).

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer is a powerful tool that provides citizens, coastal

managers, and scientists with a preliminary look at sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts to coastal communities around the nation. In addition to displaying potential future sea levels, the tool also communicates

the spatial uncertainty of mapped sea levels, models potential marsh migration due to sea level rise, overlays social

and economic data onto potential sea level rise, examines how tidal flooding will become more frequent with sea

level rise, and includes simulations of sea level rise at local landmarks.

Status of the data These data were created in 2012 and an update strategy is being developed that will include examination of new

elevation data sets as they become available to determine if a mapping update is warranted.

Data Source NOAA Office for Coastal Management Sea Level Rise Data. 2012. Department of Commerce (DOC), National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service (NOS), Coastal Services Center (CSC)

To access this data layer/tool directly, please visit: http://www.coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewer

Flooding in Norfolk, VA. Image courtesy of Skip Stiles/Wetlands Watch.

For original datasets, please contact:

Doug Marcy

2234 South Hobson Avenue

Charleston, SC 29405.00000000 Phone: 843-740-1334

Fax: 843-740-1224

Email: doug.marcy@noaa.gov

Why should we care? Current sea level rise is about 3 mm/year worldwide. According to NOAA, "this is a significantly larger rate than sea-level rise averaged over the last several thousand years", and

the rate may be increasing. Sea level rises can considerably influence human populations in coastal regions, making them more vulnerable to storm surge and flooding, and can negatively affect natural environments and ecosystems. The oceans will continue their rise in the coming century. The International Panel on Climate Change’s best estimates

range from a few inches to a few feet of sea level rise by 2100. If the rise is 2 feet, the US could lose 10,000 square miles of land. Sea-level rise also increases coastal erosion and

the loss of coastal wetlands, and saltwater spoils freshwater drinking supplies. Considering that half of the world’s population lives near coasts, sea-level rise is a serious concern.

While most coastal areas are affected by sea level rise due to an increasing volume of water in the ocean, sea level in Virginia is also affected by subsiding shoreline elevation and

changing ocean currents. The rate of subsidence in some parts of the state, due to multiple causes including a meteor impact millions of years ago, glacial retreat thousands of

years ago, and groundwater withdrawal over the last century, is particularly alarming, almost doubling the effect of increasing ocean volume. Add to that a slowing Gulf Stream,

which means less pressure to move water away from the coast, and you get a present rate of sea level rise in southeastern Virginia of greater than 1.5 feet per century, and these rates appear to be accelerating. It’s reasonable to anticipate that sea level in Virginia will rise 1.5 feet in the next 20 to 50 years, making consideration of potential impacts not just

relevant but vital.

Links to find more information: NOAA Digital Coast, Understanding Coastal Inundation

NOAA National Ocean Service, Is sea level rising?

VIMS Recurrent Flooding Study, Sea Level Rise in Virginia

How is this resource managed? Modeling future sea level rise allows us to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience further into the future by incorporating sea level rise information into planning decisions to

help state and local officials, community planners, and infrastructure managers understand possible future risks.

Links to find more information about how this resource is managed: NOAA Digital Coast, Conserving Coastal Wetlands for Sea Level Rise Adaptation

NOAA Digital Coast, Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level

Virginia CZM Program, Climate Change Adaptation Efforts

Why was the GIS data created? These data were created as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center's efforts to create an online mapping viewer depicting potential

sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. The purpose of the mapping viewer is to provide coastal managers and scientists with a preliminary look at

sea level rise (slr) and coastal flooding impacts. The viewer is a screening-level tool that uses nationally consistent data sets and analyses.Data and maps provided can be used at

several scales to help gauge trends and prioritize actions for different scenarios. The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer may be accessed at:

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/slr

Links to projects that funded this data acquisition: NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Digital Coast

How was the GIS data created? These data depict the potential inundation of coastal areas resulting from a projected 1 to 6 feet rise in sea level above current Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) conditions. The

process used to produce the data can be described as a modified bathtub approach that attempts to account for both local/regional tidal variability as well as hydrological

connectivity. The process uses two source datasets to derive the final inundation rasters and polygons and accompanying low-lying polygons for each iteration of sea level rise: the

Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the area and a tidal surface model that represents spatial tidal variability. The tidal model is created using the NOAA National Geodetic

Survey's VDATUM datum transformation software (http://vdatum.noaa.gov) in conjunction with spatial interpolation/extrapolation methods and represents the MHHW tidal

datum in orthometric values (North American Vertical Datum of 1988).

17

The model used to produce these data does not account for erosion, subsidence, or any future changes in an area's hydrodynamics. It is simply a method to derive data in order to

visualize the potential scale, not exact location, of inundation from sea level rise.

Future Directions? New elevation data are being collected all the time by various federal, state, and local entities so it is possible that newer data have been collected since the mapping areas were

originally populated. NOAA has now completed mapping most of the nation’s coastal areas for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer and has begun to develop an

update strategy. This strategy will include examination of new elevation data sets as they become available to determine if a mapping update is warranted.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do the maps shown in this viewer take into account levees and/or hydraulic features (culverts, pipes, levees, bridges)? The digital elevation models used to map sea level rise for these data do not incorporate a detailed pipe network analysis or engineering-grade hydrologic analysis (for example,

culverts and ditches may not be incorporated, resulting in incorrectly mapped areas).

Why does the data show inundation starting at mean higher high water (MHHW)?

For inundation studies for which increased water level scenarios are required to determine the amount of land affected by sea level inundation, the elevation of a tidal datum (such

as mean high water, or MHHW, in areas with diurnal tides) is often used as the base elevation. This is because the high water datum represents the elevation of the normal daily

excursion of the tide where the land area is normally inundated. Taking this normal extent of inundation into account is important when trying to delineate land areas inundated by abnormal events such as storm surge or sea level change.

What is the accuracy of these data?

These data are derived from source elevation data that meet or exceed the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mapping specifications for the National Flood

Insurance Program. Areas that do not have elevation data that meet these criteria are shown as “Areas not mapped”.

Screenshots of sea level rise data on Coastal GEMS with layers in 1 ft increments from MHHW through 6 feet of projected sea level rise

MHHW 1 ft SLR 2 ft SLR

3 ft SLR 4 ft SLR 5 ft SLR

6 ft SLR