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COAST Trust Equity and Justice Working Group
www.coastbd.orgwww.equitybd.org
Climate Change and Disaster
Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Areas of
Bangladesh
Coastal area covers 32% of country’s total areas
35 million people/ 28% of country’s population live in the coastal areas
20% and 40% of World’s population lives within 30 kilometers and 100 kilometers of the coast respectively
The Coast of Bangladesh
Socio-Economic Status of Coastal People
54% Families are Functionally Landless
High Annual Population Growth Rate, 1.29% in comparison to 0f national average
By 2020 Population will be increased to 45 million from 35 million
Agri-based Livelihoods
19
4131
9
30
58
112
0
20
40
60
80
Non FarmFamily
Small FarmFamily
MediumFarm
Large Farm
HH Category as per land ownership
Perc
enta
ge o
f HH
Number of medium farm households reduced to 11% in 1996 from 31 % in 1960.
Number of non-farm households increased from 19 percent in 1960 to 30 percent in 1996.
Medium farm households are
loosing cultivable land and becoming small farm and then
to non-farm households;
The number of
marginal and non farm households are
increasing
Risk in the Coastal Areas
Others7%Governance
16%
Natural Disaster
19%
Human Factor58%
Human Factor Natural Disaster Governance Others
Living standard, average life expectancy, access to
education, health and other basic services, social security etc are not at expected level in
comparison to national average.
increasing trends climate related
vulnerabilities and natural disasters
are making people’s life more
helpless.
Typical geographical settings and low elevation from the mean sea level
Risk Factors in the Coastal Areas
Influence of monsoon
Open and extended coastal belt
Strong tidal force, wind
action, dynamic process of erosion and
accretion,
Gradual sloping of the continental shelf
Disaster Risk: What’s Cause
Behind
Increasinglyemission of GHGs
Global warming & changes in climatic condition.
Emission of Major GHG Gases
280
0.8 0 0
353280
484
1.720
100
200
300
400
500
600
CO2 Methene CFC-11 CFC-12
Am
ount
, PP
M
Pre Industrial
In 1990
Over exploitation of natural resources, Urbanization, population
growth, Neo-liberal Economic Policies, Consumerism of rich
nations, Profit maximization of the MNCs
Combustion of fossil fuel annually adding 5.7
X 109 tons of carbon.
Deforestation annually adding
0.6 – 0.5 X 109 tons of Carbon
Massive utilization of natural coal in China,
annually could contribute upto 3 % of
world’s Carbon emission.
Increasing trend of cement production, 5 %
annually, adding considerable Carbon in
the atmosphere.
Disaster Risk: What’s Cause
Behind
Global Warming and Changes in Climatic Condition
Year Sea Level Rise (cm)
Temperate Rise ( oC )
% of Changes in precipitation( base 1990)
2030 30 0.7 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter
3% less in winter and 11 percent more in monsoon
2050 50 1.1 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter
37% less in winter and 28 percent more in monsoon
Global Warming and Endangered Bangladesh
Parameters Worst Scenario
2050 2100
Relative Sea Level Rise 153 cm 460 cm
Land Subsidence 140 cm 240 cm
Shore Line Erosion 1.5 Km 3 Km
Loss of Habitable Land 16 km2 34 km2
Displaced Population 13 % 40 %
Reduction of Mangrove Area 79 km2 95 km2
Global Warmingand Endangered Bangladesh
15-17% land area will be Submerged by 100 cm Rise of Sea Level
20 m. People will Become Environmental Refugee
Flooding Risks of Low Land will be Increased by 29% ,
145 km Sandy Shoreline from CXB to Bodormokam Would be Inundated
By 2030 about 58 thousand Hectare land would be Submerged
Worldwide Hydro-metrological Disaster e.g. Drought, Flood, Cyclone etc have increased than Geographical Disasters like Tsunami, Earthquake etc.
Climate change is likely to increase such disasters in Bangladesh
Bangladesh would be worst victim of incidence and intensity of Hydro-metrological Disasters
Global Warming:Endangered Bangladesh
Bangladesh is particularly prone to Hydro-metrological Disaster which has been found increasing in the recent years
In 2007 we faced prolong flooding, 13 depressions have been formed in the Bay including Cyclone SIDR that hit Bangladesh’s Coast
Other climate related disasters; heavy rainfall, flood, drought, erosion, salinity, water logging , drinking water scarcity , loss of biodiversity etc are also increasing.
Global Warming:Endangered Bangladesh
Endangered
Bangladesh Cyclone
10 % of the world’s tropical cyclone develop in the Indian Ocean but cause 85 % of the world’s cyclonic havoc
During 1980 to 2000, cyclone caused death of 2.5 m people worldwide, of which 60 percent were in Bangladesh.
Philippines is at high risk to cyclone but cyclonic death in Bangladesh is 10 times than the Philippines.
Considering Factors
Season wise Cyclone Distribution
9%
27%
64%
Pre Monsoon Post Monsoon Other Season
45 deadly cyclone
occurred during 1793-
1997, average frequency is 1
in every 4-5 years
700 cyclone occurred
during 1891-1990, of which
62 in pre-monsoon and 192 in Post-
monsoon season
Frequency & Distribution of Cyclone
11 Signals for Sea-port and 04 for River port
During 1980s No Cyclone Center Constructed by the Government
In 1991 We had 300 Cyclone Centers BUT Requirements were 5000
Special Weather Bulletin Announced in Fair Bangla Language---is difficult to follow by the local people
Warning System & Disaster
Preparedness
Coastal Erosion
YEAR Financial Loss (Million
Taka)
Affected Area (Acre)
Affected People
1996 5809 71680.4 10103635
1997 33012 7756 173090
1998 2201 41519 321000
1999 10535 227755 899275
2000 3286 219310 415870
During 1996-2000; financial loss was Tk. 54843 m, affected area 567900 acre and affected
people were 12 m
30868 m3 tidal water flows upward through the channels
These channels carry down upstream fresh waters from 38,896 m2 coastal and midland areas of Bangladesh.
Annually 6 m. cusecs water along with 2179 m. MT sediments flows downward through the estuaries
The pressure of the downwards flows, strong tidal circulation results unprecedented erosion
Coastal Erosion
ErosionProtection:
Few Observations
Embankments designed to dissipate the energy of
waves……
IT only can give residents a false sense of security
Construction During Erosion
Use of Inadequate Number and Size of Boulders and Sand Bags
Lack of Monitoring and regular maintenance
Salinity Intrusion
Sea level rise will cause salinity intrusion through rivers and estuaries
In the rainy season saline water ingress to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry season it reaches to 40 %area even
Figure shows that 0.5 meter sea level rise will
cause saline water intrusion in many fresh
water areas
Salinity Intrusion
IMAPCT
10% more land (relative to 1990) will be saline-affected and will rise 10% annually
Decreases availability/productivity of
agricultural land
Increased food insecurity Loss of biodiversity, e.g. decrease in tree species
and freshwater fish;
Serious scarcity of safe drinking water;
CAUSES
Global warming and expansion/ rising of SL
Withdrawal of fresh water flows at Farakka barrage.
Expansion of Shrimp Farm
Frequency and intensity of tidal surges
Low relative elevation from the mean sea level.
Salinity Intrusion
Endangered Economy
1970 cyclone caused death of 1.2 m people and USD 86.4 m. financial loss
1991 Cyclone caused death of 138, 000 people and USD 1780 m financial loss
Cyclone SIDR in 2007 caused death of 3199 (?) Affected families 6.8 m, Financial Loss estimated USD 3 billion
Bangladesh will require USD 1 billion to face the impact of sea level rise,
USD 13 billion to rehabilitate 13 million ousted coastal population, and USD 12 million to safeguard coast.
BUT the cost of production loss, 28 to 57 percent, from the present level by 1 meter sea level rise would never be repairable.
DisasterGlobal Scenario
The last decade could be identified as disaster decade.
In 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami caused death of 280,000 people
Devastating floods/ cyclones in China, India, USA & Europe caused huge loss of life and properties
240,000 people in Nizare affected with famine and people in Malawi facing drought and famine
The devastating affect of Hurricane, Katrina and Rita etc. in the USA
DisasterGlobal Scenario
In 2004 worldwide disaster caused economic loss of $ 123 billion most of which were in the poor countries
World Bank report says, $ 7.5 billion will be needed to overcome Indian Ocean Tsunami loss
$ 5 billion will be needed to recover the earthquake loss in Kashmir, Pakistan.
EC-HAD reported that the poor countries are facing at least 3% expected GDP loss annually.
What’s needed !Land Reclamation
Sea level (0m)
10m
>20m
Mangrove can reduce strength of Typhoon and Tsunami by 30-40 percent
What’s needed !Mangrove Forestation
Local Level……
Training, Skill Development through local government.
Special whether bulletin in local and easy language
Maintenance to cyclone center and coastal embankment
More discussion, consultation on Climate Change
Launching community radio
Emergency fund at the local government especially for pre-disaster preparedness
Measures Needs to Take
Rural Centric Development
More budget allocation for capacity building, disaster preparedness and rehabilitation
Saving mangrove forest
Salinity tolerant rice/ crop seed development
Reducing population growth
Defend rights of ethnic, and marginalized Professional group like coastal fishers
Resist GMO hybrid and more Input based cropping practices
Measures Needs to Take
Measures Needs to Take
Stop corporatization in agriculture and develop community based seed preservation practices to support post disaster agriculture
Develop alternative livelihoods options, develop appropriate adaptive technology but not undermining ITK
Besides PRS, long term development/financial planning for Sustainable DRR
Besides, cyclone shelter construction support coastal people to build strong houses those could even be served as shelter
Measures Needs to Take
Alliance formation of the countries that are at risk of global warming and associated disasters and make pressure and lobby with the developed counties for loss compensation
Partnership with the developed counties for appropriate adaptive technology innovation and transfer the poor countries
Effective Participation in World Carbon Trading
UN-COP 13OUR POSITION
Industrialized countries should act urgently to mitigate GHG emission; halving of global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 level.
We discourage carbon trading; we demand mitigation
The temperature rise would continue to next 50 years even at present level of Carbon concentration. So countries at climate risk should be supported with appropriate adaptive technologies.
Sea level rise will cause huge environmental refugee who should have right of migration to other countries.
UN-COP 13OUR POSITION
Developing countries should be supported with massive new CDM technology
Growing industrialized countries should join Kyoto system and adopt binding emission limitation targets from the next phase (post Kyoto commitment)
Poor countries should be supported with reliable financing mechanism to implement NAPA ( National Adaptation Programme of Action)
Thank You All
www.equitybd.org
CARE CLIMATE
CANCEL DEBT of THE LDCs