Urban Risk and Vulnerabilities of Coastal Megacity of Bangkok

Proceedings of the Resilient Cities 2013 congress

Session: A3 Integrating Resilience into Urban Planning and Development

Presentation: Urban Risk and Vulnerabilities of Coastal Megacity of

Bangkok, Thailand1

Marome, W.

Abstract:

Bangkok is experiencing a need to protect its people, natural and man-made resources and productive

capacities in response to the impact of climate change and increasing numbers of extreme weather

patterns and events. In particular, due to the ‘three waters’ of runoff, rain and sea rise, along with its

low-lying topography of 1.0-2.0 meters, much of the capital is prone to inundation. Bangkok must

become resilient to wider profile of risksin order to be prepared for climate change. There is a need to

reinvestigate the city as a system, bringing in urban development approach from the past to the

present into context in order to understand urban risks and promote climate resilience. There are four

main urban systems—population, economic, land value and health resources—which probably

become vulnerable. This paper focuses on landuse and social risk information. Data set on the ground

and proxy are collected. However, failure factors such as ineffective communication and level of water

can be detrimental to system resilience. Hence, the research methodology also includes advocacy

projects in order to acknowledge adaptation as a process. Different kinds of communication to inform

and advocate society about possible impacts of climate change and adaptation based on

the aforementioned urban systems are employed.The result of this paper focuses on adaptation

measures of sensitivity, encompassing land usages and social factors. It also looks at communication

mechanism that could prove suitable for the future socioeconomic context and changing

climatebeyond specific sector based analysis.

Keywords:

Bangkok, Flood, Megacity, Urban Development Planning, Urban Risk

1This paper is part of an on-going international research called Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR): Building Adaptive

Capacity for Managing Climate Change of Coastal Megacities (Vancouver, Manila, Lagos and Bangkok) which is

funded by IDRC and three research councils of Canada.

Proceedings of the Resilient Cities 2013 Congress

Conference organisers:ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability

In cooperation with the City of Bonn and the World Mayors Council on Climate Change

ICLEI does not accept any kind of liability for the current accuracy, correctness,

completeness or quality of the information made available in this paper.

http://www.iclei.org/resilient-cities/

1. Introduction

Bangkok, the capital of Thailand since 1782, marks the beginning of the current Chakkri Dynasty.

Nowadays, Bangkok covers an approximate area of 1,600 square kilometers withthe population

numbers5.6 million (National Statistic Office: 2013). Between 1883 and 1913, Bangkok’s population

expanded from 169,000 to over 365,000, a growth rate far in excess of the average population growth

in the Kingdom. By 1937, Bangkok was 15 times larger than the second-largest urban settlement of

Thailand, Chiang Mai (Askew: 2002). Bangkok remains disproportionately larger than Chiang

Mai,which has since manifested more dominant and exaggerated elements in economy, society and

culture compared to other urban areas in the country, as a result(Baker and Phongpaichit: 2005). The

urbanisation of Thailand, especially Bangkok, can be explored through its economic transformation.

Like many cities in the global South, Bangkok’s urban development has been focusing on promoting

internal economic growth and livelihood for its citizen. Risks posed by impact of climate change have

hardly been afactor in Bangkok urban development policy and planning. Infrastructure and economic

development have been key driving forces. In this light, it is important to understand the concept of risk

in a wider context of urban systems, not only climate risks but more importantly non-climate risks which

include socioeconomic conditions, infrastructure and health system. One way of doing this is to better

understand the impacts of the past disaster events—better characterization of urban risk. Damage

assessments should be holistic, reflecting not only the physical and economic costs but also the

environmental, social, and health effects. The information can be reinvestigated from secondary data

and capacity building projects with the society. To further promote urban resilience, knowledge should

be transferrable in order to inform a wider audience in the society.

2. Research Methodology

This researchreinvestigates city as a system,bringing in urban development approach from the past to

the present into context in order to understand urban risks and promote climate resilience.Through

better characterization of risk and vulnerability management of the past extreme events, it can help

informing planned adaptation. This research shares IPCC’s approach whichlink disaster risk reduction

to a longer term climate change adaptation and capture the holistic picture of urban risk for

sustainable development, allowing local characterization of risk and vulnerabilities. (IPCC: 2012).

Moreover, conventional approach often focuses on sequential analysis of climate change impact and

adaptation planning. This approach often starts from projecting future climate condition and its impact

analysis by different sectors, through whichkey hot spots are identifiedfor vulnerability analysis.

Subsequently, adaptation options are planned based on the existing condition. An alternative

approach shifts the climate change adaptation planning process from conventional sequential climate







change impact analysis approach to risk-based and area-based approach with linkage between

present and future. This is because climate change would takea long time to see impacts, during

which period urban society also changes—perhaps in a more dynamic condition than the climate one.

This approach allows projecting changes in socio-economic conditions andpossible future

vulnerabilities,which can be investigatedfor a better planned safer cities and socioeconomic impacts

reduction as the climate changes in different time and spatial context. Adaptation should consider the

long-term consequences of development, and how they might change a community’s or sector’s risk

profile(Chinvanno and Kerdsuk: 2013).

Source: adapted from Chinvanno, S. and Kerdsuk V. (2013)

In this regard, climate change adaptation can be treated as a process which can help

mitigatingcertain misconceptions on climate science principles and ways to address the problem. With

regards to climate risks, most of the researches have thus farfocused on future impacts of climate

change,which is based on long-term climate projection— that is likely to be uncertain—and less on

ranges and frequencies of climate extreme eventsthat are based on local characteristic of climate

factors. Due to this, information on policy relevant uncertainty has been sidelined in large parts due to

an increased overemphasis on qualitative and statistical methods. This has subsequently undermined

the more profound aspects of policy relevant uncertainty information, which can be better assessed in

practice. Similarly, societal discourses and relevant policies can be subject to further controversy and

deconstruction from already perceived scientific grounds owing to the lack of systemic attention for

unqualifiedly uncertainties in science (Dessai and Sluhis: 2007).Hence, as an alternative approach

to climate change adaptation, this paper focuses on the efforts to address adaptation measures of

current climate threats and development needs based on past disaster events in 2006 and 2011.







Various data collected on the ground is used to demonstrate current risks, which could,concurrently,

be useful for local practices.

One of the greatest challenges in mainstreaming adaptation into urban development policy and

planning is social factors. Individuals often resist and delay change, especially when such a policy

excludes society in policy and planning processes. People with different socio-economic

backgrounds, interests and institutional and political engagements may choose not to adapt or have

differing adaptation strategies. Hence, adaptation is a complex concept that includes socio-economic

factors and other dimensions. Collaboration amongst society and decision makers is both a process

and outcome of change whose shared interests include planning, making decisions, setting goals,

solving problem and coordinating. The commitment of the entire institution to be involved in

adaptation process of change is a professional approach to knowledge sharing across disciplines and

culture—an informed and knowledge-based society which is the main objective of this research.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation research in Bangkok has employed a range of methods

including empirical observations, proxy development, GIS mapping, and more importantly stakeholder

participation. Social process at a local scale of engagement at an early stage of the research is crucial

to the understanding and implementation of vulnerabilities and appropriate adaptation strategies.

Communication toolsinclude online platforms, interactive games and workshops used to gain and

transfer knowledge to a wider society.

3. Urban Risk: A Conceptual Framework for City System Dynamic

Bangkok is not only Thailand’s political, economic and administrative capital, but also a regional and

global hub. In recent decades, it has transformed a compact urban core into a sprawling megacity.

Today, in addition to the original centre, the city also extends into its five neighboring provinces and

forms a single agglomeration, the Bangkok Metropolitan Region: around 15% of the country’s

population resides here. Notwithstanding its economic and demographic vitality, Bangkok is highly

vulnerable to climate change and other environmental issues. In particular, due to the ‘three waters’ of

runoff, rain and sea rise, together with its low-lying topography of 1.0-2.0 meters, much of the capital

is prone to inundation. Because of this, the relationship between health, economy, society, and the

nature and built environment is more complex than ever.Climate and non-climate risks components

are related and influenced each other in different time and spatial scales. To capture these dynamic

system interactions, the research considers the use of a system dynamics simulation tool, called City

Resilience Simulator (CRS)-determining city resilience in response to a disaster and the ability of the

urban system to react, cope and adapt to disaster impacts. (Peck and Simonovic: 2013). However,

the focus of this paper provides an early stage or a conceptual framework of the CRS contributing to a

holistic approach and integrated urban development agenda.







A Conceptual Framework of Bangkok Urban System

There are four main components for Bangkok urban system which are social, economic, health and

hazards. The previous research analysis shows that sensitivities of urban systems are more

vulnerable thanimpacts from direct exposure. In other words, non-climate factors of land-use change,

socioeconomic condition of urban population, and health resource and accessibility provide exiting

and pre-vulnerable condition to disaster. Direct impacts of affected population being exposed and

physical characteristic of hazards exacerbate urban risk.

A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) is used as a system thinking tool to understand Bangkok’s urban

system. CLDs are used to visualize a system and their interrelationships. The best starting place for

any system development is with a CLD. Consists of nodes which represent elements of a system and

arrows represent the actions in the system; linking two nodes together indicates there is some form of

relationship between these two variables.At this stage, this CLD does not use mathematical,

numerical information or graphs;it does not simulate any behavior of the system. However, it will

facilitate the transfer of the system into the mathematical stock and flow diagram in the future.







A Causal Loop Diagram of Bangkok Urban System

The causal diagram of the whole system is developed from past to present urban development and

climate factors. As previously mentioned, Bangkok’s urban development has been focusing on

promoting internal economic growth and livelihood for its citizens. Risks posed by the impacts of

climate change have hardly been a factor in Bangkok urban development policy and planning.

Infrastructure and economic development have been key driving forces. However, a more detail of

some individual sectors will be discussed later. For hazard sector, it focuses on flooding due to the

impacts of sea level rise and surface water runoff.The direct relationship between hazard and urban

systems are varied as a function of the amount of urban land coverage built and non-built areas, with

varying abilityto absorb water and floodprotection infrastructure. This suggests that a land price, for

example, does not vary as a function of flood level because population’s demand for land

consumption does not change as a consequence of flooding, albeit driven by planned infrastructure

and urban facilities. On the contrary, urban risks posed by sensitivity of critical infrastructure systems

such as waste, water and energy systemare determinants ofthe level of vulnerability among the

population. People’s decision to evacuate or move is likely to depend on the capacity of critical

infrastructure to withstand crises. For CLD, social structure is treated as social







characteristics/statistics and social condition. The characteristics include gender, age, education and

income statistic. However, under a crisis, current social condition of people’s livelihood is important to

the understanding of declining condition of urban society. This can be quantified by using a set of

proxy such as a number of secured shelter or informal/formal settlement and employment sectors.

Data from fieldwork is necessary to compliment risk and vulnerability assessment.For health sector, it

is treated as resource and accessibility. Health care capacity and an ability of people to access during

a time of crisis are detrimental tovulnerable population. In this light, vulnerable population can be

investigated from direct and indirect impacts in different space and time contexts.In other words, to

manage uncertainties, future urban development with long-term socioeconomic trend and climate

scenario can be crucial factors…to change risk’s profile. Adaptation options beyond a common

preference for engineering solution to climate risks can then be investigated in possible ranges to

match between adaptation measures and community needs.

An Example of Proxy Indicators to Understand Bangkok Urban System

Component Stock Flow

Input Output

Population Urban Population Initial Population (total) Population (total)

Birth Rate(%) Death Rate(%)

No.of in-migration No.of out-migration

No.of tourist

Social Structure Employment Job rate Unemployment Rate

Social Structure Education Level(%) Vulnerable population

Gender(%)

Age(%)

Income

Land ownership

Population

Informal settlement

Health Health Service Health Service Availability (Bed) Health Care Capacity (%)

Vulnerable population

Economy Urban Economic Economic Growth Rate GDP

Incline Rate

Land Use Urban Land Coverage Built Land(%) Land Coverage (%)

Non-Built Land(%)

Infrastructure Service Infrastructure Service Availability System Threshold (%)

Energy Consumption(kw/hr)

Water Consumption(m3)

Solid Waste(ton)

Service Consumption

Hazard Water Level Precipitation(mm) Land Capacity(km2)

Drainage Capacity Depth

From the above CLD of Bangkok’s urban system, urban resilience can be described as direct and

indirect relationship between different sectors shown in the table below. Adaptation considers a long-







term consequence of urban development and how it may change community’s and sector’s risk

profile.

Variables and

Direction of relationship

From To

Description Relationship

(+ or -)

In-migration Pop As the number of in-migration and built up area increases

(stimulating by high quality of service and infrastructure),

the number of the population would increase

+

Population

Social Structure Economic

sector Land Value

As the number of population increases in particular area,

the population density would also increase. There are

informal and formal sectors in term of social structure,

which also increase and affect the economic sector. Land

Value, which is connecting and linking to economic

sector, can increase because of land development that

includes built up area and non-built up area.

+

Built-Up Area Hazard & CC As built up area increases, It can be affected by hazard

and climate change and the impact would be increased

by run off characteristics of built up area.

+

However, as previously mentioned, this city system dynamic is not to compromise the unquantifiable

information. Data collected on the ground using proxy to complement the quantification of system

dynamic is important for understanding local climate risk and vulnerability which can be integral to

development planning process. This paper gives examples of some impact assessments usingproxy

indicators from past extreme events of2006 and 2011 flooding.

4. Land-use Change and Impact Assessment:

In Thailand, the comprehensive plan is used as a land management tool alongside the city planning

code on land usage. The main purpose of the comprehensive plan and its regulatory framework is

limited to controlling urban development. However, it is often ineffective due to the excessive bulk of

these regulations and their inefficient enforcement, exacerbated by the improper use of future land-

use map for zoning. There are three main instruments of land management: planning, regulation and

fiscal tools. For planning, zoning is presented in the form of a coloured map, segregating land into

residential, commercial, industrial, cargo, agricultural, floodway and conservation areas. Each colour

is also divided by different densities and land use requirements. However, the zones and blocks tend

to cover large areas. One large zone may include many smaller communities and neighbourhoods

with different land-use patterns. As for the legal tools, some important landmarks in the area of land







legislation include Zoning Regulation, Floor Area Ratio and Open Space Ratio. These serve as a

broad control framework but do not provide an actual blueprint for urban development. Finally, the

potential of fiscal instruments to reshape land use also remains underutilized. While levies such as

the Local Development Tax and Housing and Land Tax are already in place, these are not effectively

employed to produce targeted land usage outcomes (Srisawalak-Nabangchang. and Wonghanchao:

2012).One positive development in recent years is the publication of the 2006 Bangkok

Comprehensive Plan. Though long overdue, this represents a major step forward for Thailand in

terms of providing a clear framework for the development of its cities, with detailed specifications for

aspects such as spatial ratios and plot size.

Nonetheless, given pre-existing development and the limited effectiveness of these new controls, in

practice undesirable or conflicting land usage can often occur. Furthermore, inefficient and

fragmented controls on urban planning and land use have meant that private construction and real

estate has frequently been driven solely by speculation, profit and short-term economic gain. The

devastation of the 2011 flooding highlighted the cost of improper and inconsistent land use

development, such as the obstruction of natural flood drainage systems.

The table below shows land-use changes between year 2001 and 2010. It is important to note that in

Bangkok and its peripheries, agricultural land has been transformed to other land usage, especially in

Pathumthani. Land development for residential area is mainly increased in all cities, except

Nakornprathom province.

-140000

-120000

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

Are

a (

Rai)

1 R

ai =

1,6

00 S

q.M

.

Provinces

Land Use Change between year 2001 and 2010

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Agricultural







This research also measures physical impacts from the past extreme events of floodings in 2006 and

2011. In 2011, Thailand suffered its worst flooding in more than fifty years, with devastating social and

economic consequences for the country. Covering some 90 billion square kilometers, amounting to

over two-thirds of the country, it proved to be the world’s fourth most costly natural disaster (Hydro

and Agro Informatics Institute: 2012). Nor was the industrial sector removed. In Ayuthaya and

PathumThani alone, damage to almost 1,000 factories in seven industrial estates resulted in over 700

billion baht in insurance claims. Preliminary estimates by the World Bank in early December 2011 put

the total economic damages and losses at THB 1,425 bn (US$ 45.7 bn), with US$ 32 bn in the

manufacturing sector alone (World Bank: 2011).

Although the crisis was the result of an extraordinary confluence of natural factors, including months

of unprecedented rainfall, it was also, to an extent, manmade. Consequently, Thailand has been

forced to confront some painful lessons about the limitations of its current approach to urban and

environmental planning. In this regard, many of the solutions will have to come from increased

cooperation between the public and private sectors. In terms of regulating future urban development,

in particular, there must be a clear recognition that natural vulnerability is respected for the common

good of Thailand’s environment and its economy.

This research measures atotal inundated areain Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) due to flooding in

2006 and 2011 on different land-use types, which can be summarized in the maps and a table below.The

data was provided from Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) of

Thailand.The result shows that, in Bangkok, agricultural land is prone to flooding, especially the four

districts located outside inner Bangkok’s protection strategy:NongJork, KlongSamwa, Ladkrabang and

Minburi. These areas are in fact planned to be floodplains. However, as a consequence of rapid

urbanization and land-use change, residential and industrial development converted some agricultural and

floodplain areas. This is also supported by the increasing numbers of inundated areas of residential and

commercial areas in floodplain in year 2011 which far exceeded that of the 2006. In addition, upstream

deforestation reduces water storage and evapotranspiration capacity by >50% (from >60,000 to <30,000

mcm) and that almost all natural water retention areas (swamps, wetlands, etc.) and natural floodways

were converted to agriculture and urbanization (Snidvongs: 2012)







Inundated Areas of 2011 Flooding Classified by Different Land-use Types of BMR

Repetitive Inundated Areas of 2006 and 2011 Flooding Classified by Different Land-use Types

of BMR







Despite the substantial investment in flood protection in the last three decades, the city’s flood

management system may prove inadequate in the years to come. Already, during the 2011 flooding, it

was reported that the system was struggling to cope with the massive volumes of runoff flowing in

from the north: according to former officials, the infrastructure had been primarily developed to cope

with localized flooding from heavy rainfall (Bangkok Post: 2011). In addition, the King’s Dyke is

designed to cope with low-level flooding, as opposed to a major flood event (IRIN: 2011). In the

future, with the effects of climate change, land subsidence and other factors, the existing and planned

dykes and drainage may not even be able to protect flood-vulnerable areas such as the western parts

of Bangkok against more than a 1-in-10-year flooding event (World Bank: 2009). While Bangkok has

a strong adaptive capacity, it may nevertheless find that it fails to keep pace with the increasing threat

and exposure brought about by climate change and rapid population growth (Yusuf and Francisco:

2009).

Better Characterization of Impact Assessment

Damage assessments should be holistic, reflecting not only the economic costs but also the

environmental, social, psychological and health effects. Yet the official data is generally technical in

nature, concentrating on infrastructure damage and compensation disbursements, and national in

focus with little disaggregation at the district or community level. As a result, the local and non-

physical impacts of the flooding are largely overlooked. Based on the author’s previous research2, the

research team on this study selected a total of 380 sample households, businesses and industrial

estates to develop a more comprehensive picture of the flood. Using semi-structured surveys in

sample communities within the districts, the team employed a series of sub-proxies, including physical

damage, health costs, transport and work absence, to assess the direct and indirect flood-related

2Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Change by Integrating Climate Risk into Long-Term Development Plans and Disaster

Management: Case Studies of Mumbai, Manila and Bangkok which is funded by Asia Pacific Network for Global Change

Research, the author is the leader for the Bangkok team.

Flooded Area (Sq.m.)Year Land Use Bangkok Pathumthani Nonthaburi Samutprakarn Samutsakon Nakhonprathom

2006 Total area 671,357,595.46 1,320,316,818.26 428,540,395.16 398,072,707.47 23,817,755.36 1,478,345,136.102010 Residential 124,289,807.71 164,774,818.35 59,804,754.81 28,182,034.37 521,276.67 111,458,767.14

Commercial 13,737,382.27 7,165,583.14 3,475,406.47 0 0 1,967,774.19Industrial 6,151,712.36 16,215,572.42 6,180,610.15 6,714,246.42 0 12,891,222.18

Agriculture 251,752,148.48 718,010,526.14 315,850,711.67 177,046,335.28 11,663,250.23 1,105,613,497.692011 Residential 323,284,649.32 289,492,624.50 122,906,766.77 69,513,625.41 22,590,693.12 186,279,397.42

Commercial 465,904,662.28 17,742,559.66 11,890,525.52 66,125,569.99 35,430,381.80 39,039,083.03Industrial 28,780,450.42 40,204,023.14 11,223,127.58 23,012,951.90 32,994,815.24 27,454,955.97

Agriculture 373,368,610.57 928,191,277.30 382,777,459.67 210,342,270.76 168,412,748.62 1,350,256,304.04







costs to communities, businesses and individuals in the 2006 flood. This was with the aimof

developing a more fine-grained understanding of the true costs of the flooding, particularly to socially

vulnerable groups. The team also analyzed the flood protection measures of Bang Chan Industrial

Estate, Minburi, and hosted a community workshop with stakeholders, researchers and a hydrological

expert from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

This provides a more complete picture of flood-related costs to individuals and communities. The

table below summarizes the average loss for each household, business and farm in the sample

communities. While it includes repair costs to housing, vehicles and other equipment, it also extends

to the intangible or indirect losses that result from illness, work absence or additional transport costs

caused by flooding. Revenue shortfalls or unpaid leave create an added burden that conventional

measurements of costs and losses often fail to capture. As the table shows, these indirect costs are

substantial for households, businesses and agriculture. In the case of businesses, the indirect costs of

lost customers, work absence and the ‘invisible’ cost of flood prevention in fact exceed the direct

costs of repairs and physical damage.

Proxies for Household Sector

Proxy variables Sub-Proxies Total

Loss Incurred Food and Utilities

Transportation Repairs Flood Preventation

(Baht) 15,000 600 25,000 5,000 44,400

Work Absence Daily Income Day(s) absent

300 3 900

Health Medication

(Baht) 300 300

30 Baht = 1 USD

45,600

Proxies for Business Sector


Loss Incurred Lost Customers

Stock Damage Repairs Flood Preventation

(Baht) 15,000 5000 5,000 5,000 30,000

Work Absence Expenses (Workers)

Day(s) absent

300 3 900

30,900

Proxies for Agriculture Sector


Loss Incurred Field Damage Flood Preventation

(Baht) 30,000 12000 42,000

Work Absence Daily Income Day(s) absent

500 30 15000

57,000

The results also highlight varying impacts on different business and occupational sectors. Farming,

according to the survey results, was the worst affected within the agricultural sector, with levels in

excess of a foot lasting over a month. Fisheries, on the other hand, though less vulnerable to direct







physical damage, was most exposed to the rising production costs as a result of the flooding. As for

small businesses, the impact was less straightforward and depended in particular on the product of

the enterprise. While the service sector was weakened by flood-related disruption, demand for basic

consumer goods actually rose among residents who were more dependent on local shops to provide

them with food and other provisions. Again, these nuances potentially have important implications for

how post-disaster economic recovery strategies should be targeted.

Together, the data on the impacts of the flooding in terms of health, work absence and other costs,

direct and indirect, highlight the limitations of the dominant approach to flood protection in Thailand:

as largely a matter of water management. This is reflected in its institutional governance and the

strongly technical responses to flood-related threats. Yet in reality, flood events impact on education,

health, social welfare, community cohesion and other areas that present strategies— with their

emphasis on megaprojects and structural investments— generally fail to reach. Moreover, through

improved characterization of local impact assessment can promote climate resilience in the future,

mitigating the possible future vulnerability with changing community’s and risk’s profiles.

5. Adaptation as Communication Strategies

Whether Bangkok proves itself capable of developing comprehensive and holistic responses to

climate change and other environmental threats will be of critical importance to the city’s future. In

part, any long term solution will probably require additional, well-targeted investment in physical

infrastructure. The World Bank has already proposed a range of future investments to enhance the

capital’s pumping and drainage capacity (World Bank: 2010)3.However, it will need to be

accompanied by a broader legislative, regulatory and planning framework to address the

multidimensional character of flood-related threats. Much of Bangkok’s strategy to date has been

characterized by structural and preventive measures, in particular ‘megaprojects’, with an emphasis

3 In eastern Bangkok, where the case study communities are located, pumping capacity to channel floodwater into

the Tha Chin River and the Gulf of Thailand is still inadequate, according to the study: it suggested expanding

pumping capacity from 737 to 1,065 m³/s and so raising the total capacity of the canals from 607 to 1,580 m³/sec.

In the western area of the city, the three major pumping stations at KhlongPhasiCharoeng, Sanam Chai, and Khun

Rat Phinit Chai currently have a combined capacity of only 84m³/s. Other approaches, already proposed by the

BMA, include a coastal erosion protection strategy and embankments along the shoreline of the eastern area of the

Chao Phraya River to protect the industrial community area from rising sea levels. The study estimated that

for1m1-in-30 year flood in an A1F1 climate scenario, the inundated area in Bangkok and SamutPrakarn provinces

would be reduced by 51%, from 744.3km2 to 362.1km

2. It found that the funding necessary to protect Bangkok from

a 1-in-30- year or 1-in-100-year flood event was 35 billion or 49 billion baht respectively, and concluded that in both

cases the investment would be economically feasible. World Bank (2010).Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian

Coastal Megacities, pp.56-57. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/Resources/226300-

1287600424406/coastal_megacities_fullreport.pdf







on mitigation. Structural measures are primarily about the technical aspects of water management,

supported by the physical hardware of dykes, embankments, drainage tunnels and so on. But there

are also important non-structural approaches that should be implemented, with a focus more on

regulating land use and reducing exposure, such as planning regulations and community education.

It has been recorded that there was insufficient official communication to the public during the time of

2011 crisis. There was a lack of local situation response mechanism and officials were not informed

about drainage strategy, local and national hydrology and other technical knowledge. (Snidvongs,

2012) In the context of climate change and other environmental threats, Bangkok will need to develop

a longer term, cross-sectoral vision that engages the participation of diverse stakeholders and

maintains a local as well as a national strategic focus. Yet to do so will require a substantial

realignment of the government’s approach in favor of a more open and collaborative relationship with

other stakeholders, particularly the private sectors and local communities. These efforts, at present

partial at best, could galvanize a more coherent and cooperative adaptation response. It is also

essential that the government develops a more collaborative relationship with local flood-vulnerable

communities. Engaging communities in the design and delivery of flood-related strategies not only

raises the probability of effective uptake and implementations, but also enhances their quality by

allowing local knowledge and experience to inform the response. Aforementioned, the research

methodology also includes advocacy projects in order to acknowledge adaptation as a process.

Different kinds of communication to inform and advocate society about possible impacts of climate

change and adaptation based on the aforementioned urban systems are employed. The

communication strategies include online facebook’sfanpage, blog, infographics, workshop, adaptation

platform and online interactive games.

Through different communication and outreach strategies,the government could also ensure a more

harmonious post-disaster response in flood-hit communities. Such can be achieved by way offormally

educating them about the necessity of protective barriers that may ameliorateflooding in their districts

and compensating them appropriately for any added cost these may impose, or informally educating

or transferring knowledge about local risk’s profiles.This would help to prepare communities at the

present to cope with future risks and manage uncertainties internally, which could subsequently

promote a more resilient society.







6. Conclusion

This paper has highlighted potential threats stemming from climate change and other environment-

related conditions Bangkok could face in the future. Ostensibly, conventional approaches to climate

change adaptation, which focus on future-climate risks as the basis of planning, will be unable to

respond to rapid urban changes and recent development projects. On the other hand, an alternative,

risk-based and area-based approach based on adaptation measures can prove essential in informing

policy practices. Moreover, this approach, which is derived from a set of proxy and data collected on

the ground, is seen suitable in the city’s socioeconomic context that can ultimately be factored in

climate change adaptation policy.

Adaptation measures must consider not only the technical and economic aspects of flooding, but also

the social and human dimensions. Flooding has been widely regarded in the past as a water

management issue, rather than a natural phenomenon that has an effect on livelihoods, urban

development and others. As the findings show, the risks of flooding are not only environmental, but

also socioeconomic.

In essence, the research has highlighted substantial indirect costs (e.g. medical care and livelihoods)

for households and communities. Adaptation measures therefore require an integrated approach that

addresses health, waste management, as well as economies of agglomeration. Failure to successfully

implementing a number of megaprojects has often derived from the sole focus on the technical part of

the problem. The importance of social realities, which play a major determining role in the resilience

and vulnerability of flood-prone areas, is often ignored. Hence, a more informed approach to the

reduction of environmental risks is vital. This is ultimately not only because does it result in economic

benefits; it also creates substantial gains towards the local communities, as well as the environment

itself.







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The author

Dr.Wijitbusaba Ann Marome

Function/Title: Lecturer

Department: Urban Environmental Planning and Development

Organization: Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University, Thailand

Email: [email protected]

www:ap.tu.ac.th

Bio

Dr. Marome earned her PhD in Planning from Development Planning Unit at University College

London. She currently teaches at the Faculty of Architecture and Planning of Thammasat University in

Thailand in which, through her researches, she takes urban development planning approach to the

understanding of climate change adaptation. She is a city team leader for the Coastal Cities at Risk

(CCaR), an international research funded by IDRC and one of the authors for UNISDR’s Global

Assessment Report 2013 and The First Thailand Assessment Report on Climate Change.

Documents

Urban Risk and Vulnerabilities of Coastal Megacity of Bangkok