CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES...CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES MICHAEL CORBETT MANAGING PARTNER LINX CONSULTING [email protected] A PRESENTATION FOR THE

CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES

MICHAEL CORBETTMANAGING PARTNER

LINX [email protected]

A PRESENTATION FOR THE CMP USERS GROUP

JULY 17, 2007

LINX CONSULTING

OUTLINE

1. Introduction to Linx Consulting

2. Developments Impacting CMP

3. CMP Markets and Key Value Chain Components

4. Conclusions

LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 2

LINX CONSULTING


LINX CONSULTING IS FOCUSED IN ELECTRONIC CHEMICALS AND MATERIALS

Deposition

CMP

Lithography

Chemicals

Gases

Wafers

Liquid crystals

LM Films

DepositionLiothography

Chemicals

Gases

Substrates

Substrates

Lead frames & wires

Chemicals and gases

Polymerics

SEMICONDUCTOR LCD PACKAGING

18.1 16.0 15.4Total =49.5

0

20

40

60

80

100%

% TOTAL SEGMENT

% TOTAL ELECTRONIC CHEMICALSNotes: 1.Units are $ billion2.PCB chemicals and materials are estimated at $10.5 billion3.Compound semi including in semiconductor

LINX JOINS INDUSTRY EXPERTISE WITH INSIGHTFUL SERVICE


SEMI LED

Strategic planning

Technology

Ideas to market

Operational optimization

Customer relationship

CLIE

NT

SE

RV

ICE

S

INDUSTRY EXPERTISE

LCD/OLED

PV Pkg&Assy

Strategic planning

Technology

Ideas to market

Operational optimization

Customer relationship


INDUSTRY ANALYSIS - SERVICES OFFERED

CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INDUSTRY ANALYSIS REPORTS

1. CMP Technologies and Markets to the 45 nm Node

2. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets

3. Opportunities in Imprint Lithography

4. Semiconductor Industry Direct Consumables Model

5. Specialty Abrasives in CMP

6. Advanced Patterning

UPCOMING INDUSTRY ANALYSIS REPORTS

1. Advanced Thin Film Processes & Materials (in-process)

2. Electronic Materials in Photovoltaics(in-process)

3. CMP Technologies and Markets to the 32 nm Node

4. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation to 32 nm Node

CMP - 32 nm NODE – REPORT CONTENTS


1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGrowth in CMP OperationsGrowth in Slurries and PadsSuppliersRegional distribution of polishes

2. METHODOLOGY

3. BACKGROUND AND MODEL DRIVERS

4. CMP APPLICATIONSAspects covered for each of the following applications:

• Challenges• Typical POR• Consumables• Key IP• Activities of leading users• Markets (65 nm and above)

Bulk Copper 65, 45 & 32nmECMP technologyCopper end point 65, 45 & 32nmCopper barrier 65, 45 & 32nmTungsten 65, 45 & 32nmSTI 65, 45 & 32nmOxide 65, 45 & 32nmEmerging applications

5. CMP TOOLS & EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESLeading tools/platformsTool supplier characterizationImpact of new technologiesConsumable selection

6. MARKET ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTSTotal consumables marketSlurriesPadsCMP operation forecastsCMP by applicationsCMP by device segment

7. SUPPLIER ASSESSMENTLeading suppliersSlurry suppliersPad suppliersConditioner suppliers

8. BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND OPPORTUNITIESCMP consumablesCustomer considerationsInfluence of tool producersSustainability of suppliersInterviewee comments

DEVELOPMENTS IMPACTING CMP


SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY GROWTH


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Dollars Units $ % Chg # % Chg

WAFER STARTS - 2006


>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.09 0.065

Total = 120,939

0

20

40

60

80

100%

DRAMSRAMNANDNOROth NVMPUMCUDSPComputingCommunicationOth MLPLDStd CellGateArrayAnalogDiscreteOptoelectronicsDigital Bipolar

UNIT OPERATIONS - 2006


0.065

0.09

0.13

0.18

0.250.35

0.5

0.81

>1

CleansCMP

i-lineresist 248nm resist 193nm resist

ARCs

FSG

SiC

OH

ECD

Cu

ALD

Implant0

20

40

60

80

100%

WAFER STARTS – 2010


>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.09 0.065 0.045

Total = 204,226

0

20

40

60

80

100%

DRAMSRAMNANDNOROth NVMPUMCUDSPComputingCommunicationOth MLPLDStd CellGateArrayAnalogDiscreteOptoelectronicsDigital Bipolar

UNIT OPERATIONS - 2010


0.045

0.065

0.09

0.13

0.18

0.250.35

0.5

0.81

>1Cleans CMP

i-lineresist 248nm resist

193nmresist

ARCs

FSGSiCOHECD CuALD

Implant0

20

40

60

80

100%

MEMORY – TOTAL % OF COPPER POLISHES


CMP MARKETS AND VALUE CHAIN


SLURRY MARKETS - $875 MILLION IN 2006


STI AND OXIDE MARKETS


STI

OXIDE

$0

$100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Slurry

Slurry Growth

$0

$100

$200

$300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

10%

20%

Slurry

Slurry Growth

TUNGSTEN AND WAFER POLISH MARKETS


TUNGSTEN

WAFER POLISHING

$0

$100

$200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

10%

20%

Slurry

Slurry Growth

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

WaferGROWTH

COPPER AND BARRIER MARKETS


COPPER

BARRIER

$0

$100

$200

$300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Slurry

Slurry Growth

$0

$100

$200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Slurry

Slurry Growth

SLURRIES – AAGR(%) 2006 TO 2010


LEADING SLURRY SUPPLIERS - CONCENTRATION


% s

har

e

HITACHI CCMP CCMP CCMP PLANAR FUJIMI

VALUE CHAIN – ABRASIVES - $225M IN 2006


CHANGES IN ABRASIVES MIX


CMP ABRASIVES EMPLOYED

No major changesCSSTOCK POLISH

HPCS will remain dominant material due to purity

HPCSFINAL WAFER POLISH

HPFS slow down at 45 nmHPCSCS

HPCS

BARRIER

ECMP not seen as likely to impact forecasts

CSIHPCS

AluminaCSI

BULK COPPER

FA likely for advanced logic

CeriaSTI

FS will slow down after 45 nm

FS

HPCS

FSCS

HPCS

FSTUNGSTEN


FSCS

Ceria

FSCS

OXIDE

COMMENTS45 NM65 NMCURRENT NODES IN PRODUCTION

APPLICATION

CMP ABRASIVES EMPLOYED

No major changesCSSTOCK POLISH

HPCS will remain dominant material due to purity

HPCSFINAL WAFER POLISH

HPFS slow down at 45 nm

CS

HPCSFSCS

HPCS

BARRIER

ECMP not seen as likely to impact forecasts

CSHPCS

AluminaCS

BULK COPPER

FA likely for advanced logic

CeriaSTI


FSCS

HPCS

FSCS

HPCS

FSTUNGSTEN


FSCS

Ceria

FSCS

OXIDE

COMMENTS45 NM65 NMCURRENT NODES IN PRODUCTION

APPLICATION

ABRASIVES MARKET, 2006 - 2010


Abrasive type CAGR (%),2006 – 2010

Colloidals 23.5

Fumed 2.5

Others 12.4

LEADING ABRASIVES SUPPLIERS (%)


RATIO OF ABRASIVES TO SLURRY ($ BASIS)


CONCLUSIONS


CONCLUSIONS

• Increased proportion of wafer starts are for DRAM and NAND -> new slurry demand drivers

• Change in abrasives mix from more commodity to more engineered products may lead to increases in slurry prices

• The chemo effect will continue to remain of critical importance, however, slurry producers with an integrated position in or preferred access to engineered abrasives may become advantaged

• Limited influence of emerging technologies on slurry demand– ECMP, fixed abrasives and novel barriers

• DRAM AND NAND conversion to copper complete at 45 nm – drives copper growth and limits future growth in oxide and tungsten

• Conversion to 300 mm slows down growth of wafer polishing


Documents

CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES...CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES MICHAEL CORBETT MANAGING PARTNER LINX CONSULTING [email protected] A PRESENTATION FOR THE