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Climate History Leading up to 2002 Drought. Colorado Climate Center Roger Pielke, Sr, Director and Nolan Doesken, Research Associate Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Green http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu. Climate Prediction. Is there skill? What spatial scales are required? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate History Leading Climate History Leading up to 2002 Droughtup to 2002 Drought
Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterRoger Pielke, Sr, Director and Nolan Doesken, Research Roger Pielke, Sr, Director and Nolan Doesken, Research AssociateAssociate Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara GreenPrepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Greenhttp://climate.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
Climate PredictionClimate Prediction
Is there skill?Is there skill? What spatial scales are required?What spatial scales are required? What is climate?What is climate?
COLORADO NEEDSCOLORADO NEEDS
What would be the impact today of What would be the impact today of historical droughts?historical droughts?
What would be the impact today of What would be the impact today of paleo-droughts?paleo-droughts?
What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm weather reoccurred for 2002-2003?weather reoccurred for 2002-2003?
How can we make Colorado more How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts?resilient to droughts?
What are the definitions of the multi-What are the definitions of the multi-dimensional character of droughts. dimensional character of droughts.
EXAMPLES OF EXAMPLES OF DROUGHTSDROUGHTS Snow does not fall in the mountains Snow does not fall in the mountains
until late Januaryuntil late January It is dry in April-July, but soaking It is dry in April-July, but soaking
rains occur in eastern Colorado in rains occur in eastern Colorado in AugustAugust
The weather of 2001-2002 repeats The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for the next five yearsfor the next five years
Colorado’s mountains have 90% of Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years.average snow for the next 20 years.
Vulnerability Vulnerability AssessmentAssessment A vulnerability assessment of risk
to climate and other environmental stress is, therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate conditions.
WebsitesWebsites
Pielke Research Group Web sitePielke Research Group Web site– http://blue.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://blue.atmos.colostate.edu
Colorado Climate Center Web siteColorado Climate Center Web site– http://climate.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
Akron 4EMonthly Accumulated Precipitation
September 1 2001 - November 30 2002 Compared to Wettest and Driest for all years (1905-2002)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Sep Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar
AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug Sep
tO
ctNov
Months
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Accum. Min Accum Max. Sept. 1 2001 - Aug. 31 2002
Fort Collins Monthly Accumulated Precipitation September 1 2001 - November 30 2002 Compared to
Wettest and Driest for all years (1905-2002)
05
101520253035
SepOct
NovDec
Jan
FebMar
AprMay
Jun Ju
lAug
SeptOct
Nov
Months
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Max Year 1922-23 Min Year 1953-54 2001-2002)
Image from Allen and Breshears, 1998, Image from Allen and Breshears, 1998, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.,Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, pp. 14839- 95, pp. 14839-1484214842
From Edwards & McKee, 1997: Climo. Report 97-2
Figure courtesy of J.R. Hannamean
Figure courtesy of Jeff Lukas
Source: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/
Total Precipitation Total Precipitation AnalysisAnalysisSeptember 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by StationSeptember 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by StationClimatic StationsClimatic Stations Year of Year of
RecordRecordRankRank Amount of PrecipitationAmount of Precipitation
Grand Lake 1 NW 1940-2002 1 12.55
Taylor Park 1941-2002 1 10.42
Grand Junction WSO A 1892-2002 8 5.54
Meeker 1891-2002 7 10.37
Montrose No. 2 1896-2002 3 5.83
Mesa Verde NP 1923-2002 1 7.43
Del Norte 2 E 1940-2002 1 3.19
Center 4 SSW 1891-2002 1 2.44
Colorado Springs WSO 1892-2002 1 6.5
Pueblo WSO 1891-2002 1 3.8
Rocky Ford 2 SE 1892-2002 1 3.62
Cheyenne Wells 1897-2002 4 9.16
Akron 4 E 1905-2002 1 9.4
Leroy 7 WSW 1891-2002 3 10.58
Kassler 1899-2002 8 12.56
Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al., trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al., 2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local 2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from Eastern trends in temperature: An example from Eastern Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22, 421-434.Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22, 421-434.
Water Year 2002Water Year 2002(Oct. 2001-Sept. 2002) (Oct. 2001-Sept. 2002) Precipitation % of AveragePrecipitation % of Average
Klaus Wolter’s Climate DivisionsKlaus Wolter’s Climate Divisions
Temperature Anomaly Temperature Anomaly June 2002June 2002
Temperature Anomaly Temperature Anomaly July 2002July 2002
Temperature Anomaly Temperature Anomaly August 2002August 2002
Fort CollinsFort CollinsAll STI Months by YearAll STI Months by Year
Fort Collins
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Years
ST
I
January STI Feb STI March STI Apr STI May STI June STI
July STI Aug STI Sept STI Oct STI Nov STI Dec STI
Akron 4E Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1905-2001)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
(in
ch
es
)
Altenbern Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1948-2001)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Boulder Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1893-2001)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Canon City Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1018
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Center 4SSW Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1891-2001)
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
418
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Cheesman Normalized Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1903-2001)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Cheyenne Wells Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1897-2001)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
5018
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Cochetopa Creek Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1948-2001)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
518
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Collbran Accumulative Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1892-2001)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Colorado Springs Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1892-2001)
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
018
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Del Norte Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1920-2001)
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
018
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Delta Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Dillion Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1913-2001)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.018
90
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Fort Morgan 2S Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Grand Junction WSO Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1892-2001)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1890
1896
1902
1908
1914
1920
1926
1932
1938
1944
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Grand Lake 1NW Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1940-2001)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Holly Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1894-2001)
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Kassler Acculmulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1899-2001)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
LamarAccumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Las Animas Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Leroy 7WSW Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Manassa Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
WRCC Data (Average 1931-2001)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Meeker No.2 Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1891-2001)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Mesa Verde National Park Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1923-2001)
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Montrose #2 Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1896-2001)
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Pueblo WSO AP Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1518
90
1896
1902
1908
1914
1920
1926
1932
1938
1944
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Rico Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
WRCC Data (Average 1893-2001)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1890
1894
1898
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Rocky Ford Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1890-2001)
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Silverton Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1905-2001)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Spicer 4NE Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
CCC Data (Average 1931-2001)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Taylor Park Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
CCC Data (Average 1941-2001)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Trinidad Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1899-2001)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Waterdale Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1895-2001)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Westcliffe Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
WRCC Data (Average 1933-2001)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Yuma Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Fort CollinsFort CollinsJanuary STIJanuary STI
Fort Collins January STI
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
January STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsFebruary STIFebruary STI
Fort CollinsFebruary STI
-3.0
0
-2.0
0
-1.0
0
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
Feb STI
Fort CollinsMarch STI
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
March STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsMarch STIMarch STI
Fort Collins - April
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
Apr STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsApril STIApril STI
Fort Collins
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
May STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsMay STIMay STI
Fort Collins
-2.5
0
-2.0
0
-1.5
0
-1.0
0
-0.5
0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
June STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsJune STIJune STI
Fort Collins
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
ST
I
July STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsJuly STIJuly STI
Fort Collins
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Years
ST
I
Aug STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsAugust STIAugust STI
Fort Collins
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Years
ST
I
Sept STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsSeptember STISeptember STI
Fort Collins
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Years
ST
I
Oct STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsOctober STIOctober STI
Fort Collins
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Years
ST
I
Nov STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsNovember STINovember STI
Fort Collins - December
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Years
ST
I
Dec STI
Fort CollinsFort CollinsDecember STIDecember STI
