Climate Change_Dr. Nasir Hassan_WPRO.pdf

7/27/2019 Climate Change_Dr. Nasir Hassan_WPRO.pdf

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Dr. Nasir Hassan

World Health OrganizationWestern Pacific


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Works on Climate Change andHealth in the Western Pacific

Nasir Hassan, PhD

Team Leader (Regional Adviser)Environmental Health

Email: [email protected] WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATIONWestern Pacific Region


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Acknowledgements

Hae-Kwan Cheong, Department of Social and Preventive

Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine,Suwon, Republic of Korea;

Dr Eva-Maria Christophel, Team Leader, Malaria and other

Vectorborne and Parasitic Diseases Unit, WHO Regional Officefor the Western Pacific ;

ProfessorA.J. McMichael, National Centre for Epidemiology

and Population Health, The Australian National University,Canberra, Australia

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WHO Western Pacific Regional Office (WPRO)

37 member countriesand areas

1.8 billion people

Diversity

Geographic Climate

Ethnic

Developmental

stage

American SamoaAustralia Brunei Darussalam

CambodiaChina

Cook IslandsFiji

French PolynesiaGuam

Hong KongJapan

KiribatiKorea, Republic of

Lao PDRMacao

MalaysiaMarshall Islands

Micronesia, Federated States ofMongolia

NauruNew Caledonia

New ZealandNiue

Northern Mariana IslandsPalau

Papua New GuineaPhilippines

Pitcairn IslandsSamoa

SingaporeSolomon Islands

TokelauTonga

TuvaluVanuatu

Viet NamWallis and Futuna 4


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Environmental Burden of Disease in Southeastand the Western Pacific

Approximately 6 million deaths or 26% total

deaths

About 146 million disability adjusted life years(DALYs) or 23% of DALYs lost

11 deaths every minute from environmental-related causes

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Weather Climate Climate variability Climate change

Torrential

rainTyphoon

Weather

Climate variability

Climate change

hours days months years decades centuries

Season ENSO and

IOD

Pacific

Decadal

Oscillation

(PDO)

Global

warming

Climate


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Rising atmospheric

temperature

Rising sea level

Reductions in

North Hemispheresnow cover

Climate change is

Unequivocal


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Many countries of the region are vulnerableto climate change impacts

EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity ; recited inWPRO(2009)


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Human influence on the climate system is clear:

warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in theglobal water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global meansea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.

Extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause ofthe observed warming since the mid-20th century.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.Ululu-wfT3o


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List of climate-sensitive infectious diseases

Cholera

Malaria

Meningococcal meningitis

Dengue fever, Dengue hemorrhagic fever

Yellow fever

Japanese and St. Louise encephalitis

Rift Valley fever

Leishmaniasis

African sleeping sickness

West Nile virus disease

Murray Valley fever and Ross River fever

Source: Using Climate to predict infectious disease outbreaks: a review. WHO, 2004


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Climate change influences environmentaldeterminants of health

1. IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change. 2001.

Global climate change will have a wide range of health impacts. Overall, negative

health impacts are ant ic ipated to ou tweigh po si t ive heal th imp acts. IPCC

Decreased food security:In some African countries, yields from rain-fedagriculture may halve by 2020.

Increased incidence of infectious disease:Including vectorbornediseases (increasing population at risk of malaria by 170 million by 2030; riskof dengue by 2 billion by 2080s.)

Lack of water quality and quantity: Contributing to a doubling of peopleliving in water-stressed basins by 2050.

Direct impacts of extreme weather:Increasing exposure to coastalflooding by a factor of 10, and land area in extreme drought by a factor of 10-

30.


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Pacific Countries

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Mean monthly birthweight, low birthweight rate, and meanmonthly rainfall, Tari, Southern Highland, PNG

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Vectorborne diseases are a highly prominent climatechange and health risk


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Pathogen

ReservoirTransmission Host

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Survival ofpathogen in thenaturalenvironment

Prevalence of thedisease

Crowdedness Frequency of

contact

Susceptibility

Temperature Humidity Sunshine

Wet season Nutritional status Vit-D synthesis


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Malaria incidence increasing at higher altitudes of EasternHighlands Province, PNG

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Incidence

(/10,

000

/yr)

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

Data from Dr Park JW, PNG Vulnerability assessment


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Dengue and Rainfall Patterns in Cambodia

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Dengue distribution is climatically determined and limitedto tropical areas

Wil l imp acts of cl imate change expand distr ibu t ion?


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Global Dengue Epidemiology

Dengue007/CMH/260302

1960s

1990s

Dengue fever only

DHF/DSS

Thousand-foldincrease in reportedincidence


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Hales and Woodward, 1999

Dengue epidemics in the South Pacific 1970-1998

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

numberofep

idemics

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

SOI

Southern Oscillation Index

El Nino years

La Nina years

SouthernOscillationIndex


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Dengue: A Western Pacific Regional Priority

One of fastest emerging infections in world No. cases in the WPR has more than doubled over past 10 years

Asia Pacific bears ~75% of current global dengue burden Bears >70% of estimated 2.5 billion people at risk globally Around 23/37 countries and areas report dengue each year

Importation of viraemic cases (e.g. AUS)

Endemic disease with high incidence sustained throughout much of the Region impacton public health, economy and society

Viral infectious agent with potential for rapid genetic change constantly evolving andunpredictable epidemiology highlights need for timely and routine information sharing

and action


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Climate change and vectorborne diseases:commitments and rationale

CC and health resolutions, eg.: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: 1992

61st World Health Assembly resolution, May 2008;

59th Session of the Regional Committee for Western Pacific, September2008;

Vector-borne diseases: feature prominently in: NAPAs;

Vulnerability assessments

National strategic plans;

Agreed strategies, tools and plans to combat VBDs


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Regional Framework (RCM 59.R7)

59th Session of the WHO Regional Committee for the

Western Pacific, Manila, Philippines22 to 26 September 2008

Agenda Increase awareness of health consequences of

climate change Strengthen health systems capacity to provide

protection from climate-related risks, and reduceGHG emissions in health system

Ensure that health concerns are addressed indecisions to reduce risks from climate change inother key sectors

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Regional Project for member countries

Background Based on Regional Framework (59th RCM, 2008)

Aim To strengthen national capacity building and develop vulnerability

assessment

To support developing national action plan (NAP)

Target countries 1st wave

Mongolia (Continental)

Cambodia (Tropical)

Samoa (Small island country)

Papua New Guinea (Tropical and island country)

2nd wave Lao PDR

Philippines

Viet Nam

FSM

Other PICs 28


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Health vulnerability assessment and actionplanning

2009 -2010: Mongolia, Cambodia, Samoa, and PapuaNew Guinea

2010-2011: Pacific Island Countries, including CookIsland, Federal States of Micronesia, Kiribati, MarshallIslands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Solomon Islands, Tonga,Tuvalu, and Vanuatu

2011: Lao PDR (HVA); Cambodia, Mongolia and Papua

New Guinea (Action plan implementation) Strengthening of adaptive

capacity of health systems: China, Fiji, Lao PDR, Philippines,

Viet Nam Mitigation in the health sector

(Green Hospitals Initiative): China

Countries Supported since 2009

l l f l h d


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National Action Plan for Climate Change and

Health

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Donors Country of interest Funding potential Status

World Bank Cambodia

Eligible countries

Climate Investment

Funds (CIF) thru PPCR$6 B

Mission to CAM in Sept

2009

ADB Member countries $1-2 M TA;$100M/country

Open for negotiation

AusAID Pacific countries Climate Change Funds -$150 M

Open for discussion

CIDA and IDRC Selected WPROcountries Climate Changeresearch funds andHealth Canada

Partial agreement

USAID RDMA China, Asian part ofWPRO

$20 M Funding priorities tomade by Sept 2009

Skoll Foundation (USA) Selected WPROcountries

$100M Open for proposals forurgent threats

Korean Govt WPRO Annual grant

KOICA WPRO (PNG, Lao PDR) $200M

Japan PTT WPRO Annual grant

UN Trust Fund ofHuman Security

UNTFHS

Mongolia $3M Joint Proposalsubmitted by UNDP,

WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA

Resource Mobilization

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Country activities

Spanish MDG funds Health sector adaptation capacity building China and the Philippines

Korean funds For developing policies and gaining better skills for

research on adaptation, mitigation, and health risksassessment Countries: Cambodia, PNG, Mongolia + PICs

Collaboration with IDRC Cost effectiveness and cost benefit analysis Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Papua New

Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Samoa, VietNam,


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KOICA-WHO Vector-borne disease Control

Program

Project TitleStrengthen control of vectorborne diseases to lessenthe impact of climate change in the Western Pacific

Region with focus on Cambodia, Mongolia and PapuaNew Guinea

Objectives

To build capacity in countries and at regional level to

minimize consequences of VBDs to populations in

areas that are prone to CC

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KOICA-funded, WPRO climate change and vector borne diseaseproject: VBD vulnerabilities

Mongolia

Tick-borne diseases(encephalitis; Lyme disease;

rickettsioses; West Nile;

anaplasmosis; Q-fever)

Plague

Risk of mosquito-borne

disease (?)

CambodiaDengue

Malaria

Chikungunya

Papua New Guinea

Malaria

Dengue

Lymphatic filariasis

Japanese encephalitis

Other arboviruses (Ross

River; West Nile)


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Training session

35

Sit i it


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Site visits

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Main achievements of the programme

Project outputs

1. Increased awareness and involvement ofcommunities and stakeholders

2. Strengthened surveillance

3. Strengthened capacity for vector control4. Strengthened capacity for effective diagnosisand treatment of VBDs

5. Strategic information on knowledge gaps6. Effective and efficient project management

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Impact of Climate Change on Water and

Health in Vulnerable Countries

Funded by Ministry of Environment, Korea Operated by WHO WPRO Objectives:

To strengthen country-level capacities

in establishing better health surveillance program on the climatechange, water and health,

by supporting vulnerability assessment, water monitoring, and

assessment of impact of climate change on water and healthin the selected countries which has already

established a national action plan on climate changeand health.

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Project activities

Strengthening of existing water

quality monitoring system Analysis of the relationship of health

outcome in relation to the changesof indicators of wateravailability and quality

Capacity building of the personnel inpublic health, water supply, andclimate sectors

Review of national adaptationprogram on water and health from

the impact of climate change Proposal of the surveillancesystem on the impact of climatechange on water and health

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SYNTHESIS REPORT ON CLIMATECHANGE AND HEALTH IN WPRO

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Baseline structure

Introduction

Scientific findings:rationale for action

Current situation

Way forward

Background

Overview of ENH CCH programme

Findings of data analysis from 4 countries Methodology for conducting VA and

drafting adaptation plan of action

Vulnerability assessments identified Priority areas Short description of 6 country reports Major outcomes and contributions of

WPROO projects on CCCH

Discussion on practical next steps

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Way forward

What should be the next step for the CCH in the WPRO?

Filling-up missing pieces, providing a sustainable evidence Establishment of CCH information infrastructure Climate Health surveillance Vulnerability assessment

Regional network establishment for surveillance and EWS VA and Action plan for Local/National/Regional level based on

its own evidences and perspectives Intervention and monitoring Intersectoral approach Development of conceptual framework on CCH Governance

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Moving forward in CC and VBD

CC impacts and relationships with VBDs just becoming evident;- Same amount of CO2 emitted 2000-2020 as the entire 20th century:impacts will increase

$100 billion pledged (at Kyoto) by developed nations whoacknowledge responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions.

In this Region, for VBD special vulnerability regarding dengue andchikungunya


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THANK YOU!

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Climate Change_Dr. Nasir Hassan_WPRO.pdf