Climate Change Projection in Japan and its Climate Change Projection in Japan and its Background PolicyBackground Policy

- Research Utilizing the Earth Simulator-- Research Utilizing the Earth Simulator-

Hiroki KondoHiroki Kondo Frontier Research System for Global Change, JapanFrontier Research System for Global Change, Japan

Outstanding research issues from the TAR Kyo-sei Project with the Earth SimulatorOngoing projects for climate change projection Global Warming Research Initiative under the

Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)

Further actions required by TARFurther actions required by TARSystematic observations and reconstructions: Modelling and process studies: - Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors leading to c

hanges in radiative forcing. - Understand and characterize the important unresolved processes a

nd feedbacks, both physical and biogeochemical, in the climate system.

- Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long-term ensemble simulations using complex models.

- Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate variability, regional climate changes and extreme events.

- Link more effectively models of the physical climate and the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling with descriptions of human activities.

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Earth Simulator Japan Foreign Countries

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Kyo-seiKyo-sei Project Project (Sustainable Co-existence Project on (Sustainable Co-existence Project on

Human, Nature and the Earth)Human, Nature and the Earth) <MEXT funds> <MEXT funds>Global projection related studies:＊ High-resolution climate modeling for future climate change

projection; on ES（ CCSR et al.）＊ Long-term stabilization experiment (CRIEPI et al.） based

upon the NCAR model;＊ Integrated Earth system modeling for projecting Earth

environment change （ FRSGC et al.);　＊ Super-high resolution global and regional climate modeling

(MRI/JMA et al.） ; and two other projects on physical processes Water cycle related studies(2): A Data assimilation study: and Other studies

High-resolution climate modeling and climate change projection under

scenarios （ CCSR et al. ） To develop a high-resolution CAOGCM (AGCM with a resolutio

n of T106 (~120 km) coupled with OGCM with a resolution of 1/4º in latitude and 1/6ºin longitude) from existing CCSR/NIES (Nationaol Institute for Environmental Studies) model.

- The model has already been developed. To make projection experiments by the above model for major IP

CC/SRES scenarios. - Experiments are being conducted and their results will be submitte

d to the archive center (PCMDI) under the coordination of IPCC/WG1 and WCRP/WGCM by 1 September.

Cooperation with the Hadley Centre for inter-comparison for further improvement

Further development of the model later: AGCM with resolution of T213 (~60 km) coupled withOGCM with resolution of 0.1º×0.1º,

IPCC SRES, stabilization and overshoot scenarios

A1B→const

B1→const

Overshoot

Climate change projection with main focus Climate change projection with main focus on long-term stabilization (CRIEPI et al.)on long-term stabilization (CRIEPI et al.)

Climate change projection based upon the NCAR climate model

- Long term projection under two stabilization emission scenarios with eventual 550 and 750 ppm CO2 concentratoins, and also under

“Overshoot Scenario” - Experiments are underway to be submitted by

1 September

Integrated Earth system modeling for Integrated Earth system modeling for projecting Earth environment change projecting Earth environment change

（（ FRSGC et al.)FRSGC et al.)

Main focus: Feed back effects of climate change to the concentrations of green house gases and other eart

h environment Projection with inclusion of carbon cycle, covering bio

spheric interaction between the atmosphere, ocean and land into the CCSR/NIES climate model.

- Experiments are ongoing to contribute to the AR4 Integrated climate modeling to include a carbon-cycle

model, atmospheric constituents model, and a biosphere model

Super-high resolution global and regional Super-high resolution global and regional climate modeling (MRI/JMAclimate modeling (MRI/JMA ））

Main Focus: Regional extreme events including tropical cyclones, East Asian monsoon (Baiu), severe rain storms under global climate change

Modeling of a AGCM with a super-high horizontal resolution of about 20 km (TL959) and 60 vertical levels (L60) in the atmosphere.

- The model is an unprecedented global climate model resolvable even the eye of a tropical cyclone. It has been developed.

- Simulation experiments show reasonable results and projection experiments are being run through a time-slice method

Modeling of a cloud resolvable non-hydrostatic regional atmospheric model with a resolution of a several kilometers in grid size.

- This model with 5km grid size has simulated severe rainfall events reasonably. - Aerosondes and newly developed unmanned planes are being mobilized to mak

e measurements for validation data.

Present Climate Simulation

Annual Average: 82.75

Projected Climate

Annual Average: 63.25

Time-slice global warmingexperiment using an AGCM with 20-km horizontal resolution

RR2002 ProjectMRI/JMA/AESTO

Council for Science and Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)Technology Policy (CSTP)

CSTP: established within the Cabinet Office in 2001, with

Chairman (Prime Minister) , 6 Ministers concerned and 8 Experts

Prioritized Science and Technology Fields (4 fields): life science, information technologies, environment, and nano-techn

ology

Research Initiatives under the environment (5 subjects): Global Warming; Waste-free and Resource Recycling Technologie

s; Eco-harmonious Regeneration of River-basins and Urban areas; Chemical Substance Risk Management, and Global Water Cycle

Global Warming Research Initiative

Promotion System for Global Warming Research Initiative

Council for Science and Technology (CSTP) ： Prime Minister (Chair), related Ministers(6) and Experts(8)

PT* for other areas

Expert Panel on Promotion Strategy of Prioritized Areas

*PT： Project Team

Environmental R&D Promotion PT*　　　　 a CSTP Expert (Chair), 3

other CSTP experts, 6 Initiative chairs

for Mitigation Technology Development

（４ Programs ）

（２ Programs ）

for Climate Change

Other Environmental Research Initiatives (4) 　

Programs under the Global Programs under the Global Warming Research InitiativeWarming Research Initiative

Programs in the Climate Change Research Area - Monitoring and Process Study

- Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study

- Impact and Risk Assessment

- Mitigation Policy

Mitigation Technology Development Area - Greenhouse Gas Fixation and Sequestration

- Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

　 - Coordination of ongoing specialized modeling under ministries and agencies

- International cooperation with advanced modeling centers in EU, USA, …

Ministry of Environment

ProgramProgram for Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study for Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study

Projects under the funds of Projects under the funds of Projects under the funds of

MLITMEXT Focusing on

- Impacts on Asian region

- Social & Economic models

- Impacts on human activities

Focusing on - Utilization of the ES

- Global climate change

- Basic scientific findings

Focussing on

- Interaction with NWP modelling

- Global and regional (over Japan) climate

- meteorological and oceanographic events

To Share findings in common parts of modelling

Contribution to IPCC

Verification by rebuilding 　 paleoclimate

Ocean Drilling Project

MEXT

Climate modeling for climate change projection