Climate Change Impacts to Glacier National Park and other mountainous areas

Daniel B. FagreNorthern Rocky Mountain Science Center

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Photo by Karl Birkeland/ FS NAC

Emphases of Program

• Trends in ecosystem responses

• Underlying processes of ecosystem change

• Modeling of dynamics to project future

Grinnell Lake and Grinnell Glacier, 1910

Photo by Kiser, courtesy GNP Archives

Grinnell Glacier from Mt. GouldGrinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould

19381938Hileman

photo/ GNP Archives

19811981Key/ USGS

photo

19981998Fagre/ USGS

photo

20052005Reardon/

USGS photo

SperryGlacier

1850

1901

1913

1927

1938

1945

1959

1960

1966

1969

1979

1993

5 Years of Melting

• Agassiz 1993 – 1.02• Agassiz 1998 – 0.93

• Blackfoot 1993 – 1.74• Blackfoot 1998 – 1.63

• Chaney 1993 – 0.54• Chaney 1998 – 0.48

• Old Sun 1993 – 0.42• Old Sun 1998 – 0.35

• Rainbow 1993 – 1.21• Rainbow 1998 – 1.15

• Red Eagle 1993 – 0.15• Red Eagle 1998 – 0.08

Glacier Factoids

• 150 in 1850 to 27 or less in 2006

• Less than 28% of the glacier area remains

• Less than 10% of the glacier volume remains

• Glaciers continue to disintegrate and melt

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How much snow How much snow accumulates each winter?accumulates each winter?

• Snow depth measurementsSnow depth measurements• 0 – 7+m deep0 – 7+m deep

Sperry Glacier. June 24, 2005. Photos by Blasé Reardon and Dan Fagre.

How much mass accumulates each winter?How much mass accumulates each winter?• 560kg/m560kg/m3 3 avg. densityavg. density• 65-95” SWE65-95” SWE

Sperry Glacier. June 25, 2005. Dan Fagre photo.

How much mass How much mass melts each summer?melts each summer?•Ablation stakesAblation stakes

Huecke Portable Ice Drill, courtesy Joel Harper UM Dept. of Geology

•5.1m avg. height loss5.1m avg. height loss•9cm/ day rate in snow9cm/ day rate in snow•4cm/ day rate in ice4cm/ day rate in ice•.5 - 1.7m ice loss.5 - 1.7m ice loss

Sperry Glacier, Aug. 8, 2005. John Newton photo

How fast does Sperry flow? How deep is it?How fast does Sperry flow? How deep is it?•Partnership w/UM Geology Dept. (Prof. Joel Harper & students)Partnership w/UM Geology Dept. (Prof. Joel Harper & students)•Velocity (GPS) 3-5cm/dayVelocity (GPS) 3-5cm/day•Ice depth (10mHz radar)Ice depth (10mHz radar)•Basic research into mass flux questionsBasic research into mass flux questions

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Bed surfaceBed surfaceBed surfaceBed surface

Aquatic invertebrate species distribution

in response to stream temperature

Hydropsyche cockerelli

Arctopsyche grandis

Parapsyche elsis

Minimal glacial runoff

Present glacialrunoff

Three fish species from Glacier National Park, MT USA

Westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi)

Native species

Rainbow trout (Oncorhyncus mykiss)

Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

Non-native species

Pacific Basin InfluencesPacific Basin InfluencesPDO Warm Phase PDO Cool Phase

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)•El-Nino-like pattern of climate variability•20-30 year cycles•North Pacific Phenomenon

Climate Fluctuations Modern instrumentation Climate sensitive tree

rings

Methods

Glacier NP Summer Drought

1930’s Dust Bowl

LIA Glac. Max.

1850 Summer Drought & Glacier Recession

191319451993

Fires Episodes

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Climate and Douglas-fir growth

Sample plots cover the complete biophysical gradient space of Douglas-fir.

Water-limited vs. energy-limited systems.

PNW node

Net primary production (NPP, kgC m-2 y-1) vs. precipitation (PRCP, mm y-1), temperature (Temp, oC), and incident shortwave radiation (RAD, MJ m-2 d-1) for 1980-1997.

NPP vs. PRCP

NPP vs. Temp

NPP vs. RAD

Change Detection Map

Outflow (A2 minus Control simulation)

Mote 2003(b)

Decrease Increase

20th Century Trends In Snowpack

Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan

+20d later–20d earlier

Trends in Timing of Spring Snowmelt

In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak.

Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos, October 2002

Conversion from PJ to J woodlands… Jemez Mts., May 2004

Olympic andNorth Cascades

Sierra Nevada

Southern RockyMountains

Central RockyMountains

Northern RockyMountains

The U.S. Geological Survey’sWestern Mountain Initiative (WMI)

of global change research sites

The model

The domain

PNW node

Air-quality modeling in mountain protected areas – typically the worst days are caused by wildfire.

“pristine”

“severely degraded”

GLobal Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments

• developed by researchers at the University of Vienna, Austria

•initiative towards an international research network to assess climate change impacts on mountain environments

• in line with international research demands, e.g. •Mountain Research Initiative •Global Terrestrial Observation System•Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment

Glacier National Park, MT

CLIMET TransectCLIMET Transect

Western Mountain Initiative

The American Cordillera Transect

GLOCHAMOREGLOCHAMORE

GLORIA Project