Watershed Governance Symposium

June 18, 2015

Columbia River Treaty Round Table

g13utzig@telus.netwww.kootenayresilience.org

Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd.Nelson, BC CANADA

Climate Change and the Columbia Basin

Climate Information

l Vulnerability/ Resilience Assessment of West Kootenay Forest Ecosystemsq Funded by BC Government – MoFLNRO - Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific

Council

l Climate Change Conservation Planning (Connectivity & S Rockies)q Funded by ENGOs – Wildsight and Conservation Northwest

Climate Change Projects

l Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) –U of Victoria

l Climate Western North America(ClimateWNA) – BC MoFLNRO,

UBC, U of A – Edmontonl Climate Impacts Group (CIG) – U

of WAl International Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)2

Weather and Climate Variability

Climate Variability

Short term: (years todecadal) rises andfalls about the trendline (ENSO)

Climate Oscillations

Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate (e.g. PDO, NAO)

Climate ChangeLong-term trends or major shifts in climate (mulit-decadal to century-scale)

From: Reasoner 2010 - CBT 3

Loss ofColdestWeather

HistoricalClimate

New Climate

More HotWeather

Cold HotAverage

NewRecord HotWeather

Increase in Mean TemperatureProbability of

occurrence

Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 4

European Summer Temperatures(1500-2010 anomalies relative to 1970-1999 mean)

From: Coumou and Ramstorf 2012

5 coldest years 5 warmest years

1970-1999

5

More Hot WeatherMore Cold

Weather

Increase in Variance (more extremes)

Cold HotAverage

HistoricalClimate

New Climate

New RecordCold Weather

New RecordHot Weather

Frequency ofoccurrence

Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 6

Reduced, but ContinuingColdWeather

Cold HotAverage

HistoricalClimate

New Climate

Much More Hot Weather

and Record Hot Weather

Increase in Mean Temperature & VarianceFrequency of

occurence

Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 7

Decadal Summer Temperature AnomaliesNorthern Hemisphere Land (1951- 61 reference period)

Adapted from:Hansen et al. 2012

2001-2011

1951-1961

Temperature Anomalies (oC)

Freq

uenc

y of

Occ

urre

nce

8

Climatic Extremes

• Increased amplitude• Reduced rate of movement• Weather systems stall

Calgary & SE BC - June, 2013

Jet Stream Modifications

Low

High

High

Mechanisms?• Heat waves• Drought• High intensity rainstorms/ flooding• Windstorms/ tonadoes• Lightening storms• Hail storms• Ice storms• Early spring heat/ late frost

combinationsGrand Forks, BC - July, 2012 Crossfields, AB - July, 2012

Boundary Sentinel9

From: D. Vettese 2013 – WN & N. Short,Sr. - FAS

Climatic Extremes – 2012 Example

• 4 people killed• 4 houses destroyed• 6 properties damaged/

loss of access• Community water

system destroyed• Main road destroyed• Damage to utilities• Ongoing future risks

Monthly Precipitation/ Rapid Snowmelt - Johnson’s Landing

Increased Soil Moisture

Decreased Soil Strength

Landslide (July 12, 2012)

Impacts

TMTV

0

50

100

150

200

250

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

June Precipitation: 1901 to 2012

Mean 1901-2000: 61 mm

2012: 206 mm

Maximum 1901-2000(1963): 120 mm

(preliminary data, subject to correction)

10

From: Petit 2000 and CO2now.org

CO2 levels are now higher than anytime in at least 2.1m years

May 2013399.9

(+3ppm/yr)

We Are the Cause

11

General Circulation Models (GCMs)“Global Climate Models”

l Mathematical representations of the global climate system

From: IPCC 2007 - AR4 WG1

“3D pixels” representing atmospheric conditions at various elevations around the earth through time

12

Modeling - Future Projections

Scenarios

From: IPCC 2007 and Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009

Greenhouse Gas Emissions – various potential scenarios

Current emissions exceed all projections 13

Projected Changes for the 2050s (A1B scenario)Temperature

Precipitation Winter Spring Summer Fall

Winter Spring Summer Fall

14From: Schnorbus et al. 2011

Variability: Past vs. Potential Futurefor the Columbia Basin

From: Murdock 2007 - PCIC-CBT

Note that the projected annual temperature shifts far exceed historical variability (20th century), while the projected precipitation shifts do not.

15

Glacial Retreat

• Short-term increased summer flows

• Long-term decreased summer flows

• Increased stream temperatures

From:Menounos et al. 2006 CBT & Vaux. BC Parks

16

Reduction in Snow Cover

From: Schnorbus et al. 2011 & Murdock et al. 2007 – VIC model

CurrentClimate

2020s(+1.7 C)

2040s(+2.25 C)

April 1 – 1970s vs. 2050s (SWE)

17

Snow Water

Equivalent and

WatershedRegimeShifts

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From: Hamlet et al. 2013– VIC model

Projected Changesin 100-year

Flood Magnitudes

19

From: Hamlet et al. 2013– VIC model

Projected Changesin

Low Flows

20From: Hamlet et al. 2013 – VIC model & Carver 2011 - CBT

Changes in Seasonal Runoff

21

Winter Spring Summer Fall

% Changes from 1970s to 2050s (mean A1B scenario)

From: Schnorbus et al. 2011 – VIC model

Projected 100 year peak flows

22

Columbia Riverat

Revelstoke

Boise Riverat

Boise

From: Salathe et al. 2014 - VIC model –regioaldown-scaling

WarmerSnowmeltDominated

ColdSnowmeltDominated

Projected 100 year peak flows

23

Skagit Riverat

Mt. Vernon

From: Salathe et al. 2014 - VIC model –regioaldown-scaling

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Annu

al A

rea

Burn

ed (h

a)

Year

30 yr Running AverageAnnual Area Burned

North

Area Burned

Touchstones Archives, Nelson

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Annu

al A

rea

Burn

ed (h

a)

Year

30 yr Running AverageAnnual Area Burned

4 years 50-90,000

South

West KootenayFire History

24

Changes in Area Burned

Sitkum2007

Jordan 2007

Kutetl 2003

25

Insects/ Pathogens /Decline Syndromes

l Tree decline – drought/ resistancel Bark Beetles

q Mountain pine beetle, spruce bark beetle, Ipsbeetles, Douglas-fir beetle …..

l Defoliators, blights, pathogensq Spruce budworm, dothistroma, larch needle

cast, root disease

l Complex Interactionsq Birch die-back, yellow cedar, 5-needle pines

From: Raffa et al. 2008(A) Regions(B) Elevation (C) Stem diameter (D) Genus(E) Fire return interval

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From: van Mantgem et al. 2009

Cold-Water Fish GuildsCurrently Suitable Habitat

for Juvenile Bull Trout

~ 1.6 °C Increase

~ 5.0 °C Increase

Dan Isaak, USFS, Boise, ID & Peter Tschaplinski, BC MoF

q Habitat loss for cold water species, potential increase for warm water

q Loss of streamside vegetation due to fire/ insects

q Competition from invadersq Reduced low flows - de-

watering (loss of glaciers)q Change in peak flows affecting

spawning, egg incubation and rearing habitat

q Increased sedimentation from storm events

q Increased flood events degrading habitat

q Fragmentation of habitatsq Lake thermocline modificationsq Increased summer and winter

fish kills in lakes

Potential ClimateChange Impacts

Favourable Stressful Fatal

Salmon

27

Changes in Seasonal FlowsColumbia River

at Keenleyside Dam

1

5

43

2

1. Higher winter flows2. Earlier snowmelt3. Higher peakflow4. Earlier peakflow5. Lower summer/fall flows

From: Schnorbus et al. 2011- VIC model & Smith 2013 – BC Hydro

1961-90

28

Variability Across the Basin

29

(at Corra Linn) (at Parker)(at The Dalles)Yakima River

A1B B1

(Monthly - October to September)

From: Hamlet et al. 2013 – VIC model

Variability Across the Canadian Basin

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From: Werner et al. 2013- VIC model

Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones

By: Daniel Mosquin

Interior Cedar –Hemlock

Ponderosa Pine

Engelmann Spruce –Subalpine Fir

Grasslands/Sage Brush 31

Ecosystem Units as “Bioclimate Envelopes”

Adapted from: Hamann and Wang 2006 & Roberts and Hamann 2011

Warm / dry

ContinentalMaritime

Cold / wet

o

oX

x

?

BiogeoclimaticZones

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A Range of ProjectedBioclimate Envelopes

Warm/ Moist Very Hot/ DryHot/ Wet

Original data from: Roberts and Hamann, U of A

AlpineAlpine parklandWet subalpine forestDry subalpine forestCoastal hemlockTransitional coast/ interior hemlockMontane/sub-boreal spruce forestWet interior cedar/ hemlockMoist interior cedar/ hemlockDry interior cedar hemlockGrand fir/ Douglas-firWet Douglas-firDry Douglas-firPonderosa pine savanahGrassland/ steppe West Kootenays

33

Current 2020sHabitat projections for Ponderosa Pine

From: Laura Gray 2010

34

Current 2050sHabitat projections for Ponderosa Pine

From: Laura Gray 2010

35

Current 2080sHabitat projections for Ponderosa Pine

From: Laura Gray 2010

36

Ecosystem Response

EcosystemRange Shifts

Ecosystem Re-organization

37

Thank You

“We have options, but past is not one of them”Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295

“Times have changed – no longer is our goal sustainable development …. our goal must now be sustainable survival”

Blackstock 2008, p.15

kootenayresilience.org

CO2 Emission Reductionsare the ONLY solution.

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