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Claire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIUClaire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIU
Lloyd’s is the registered trademark of the Society incorporated by the Lloyd’s act 1871 by the name of Lloyd’s
IMSF Gdansk29 April 2008
METHODS FOR APPORTIONING METHODS FOR APPORTIONING COCO22 EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS
OUTLINEOUTLINE
Legislative environmentLegislative environment Complexities in apportioning shipping emissionsComplexities in apportioning shipping emissions ApproachesApproaches Trade/ShippingTrade/Shipping ConclusionsConclusions
Most efficient mode of goods
transport
Facilitated globalisedeconomy
Carries 77% of world trade
2-4% global CO2 emissions 600- 1000mt
CO2
1470 mt CO2
by 2020?
GREEN GREEN OR NOT SO GREEN?OR NOT SO GREEN?
WHY THE ATTENTION?WHY THE ATTENTION?
• Scientific Consensus- Global CO2 emissions reductions of 50%
- Keep CO2 in atmosphere below 450 ppm
- Temperature rise below 2ºC
• Successor to Kyoto – 2012
- Negotiations ongoing, decision 2009
- Aviation and shipping likely to be included
• What does this mean for shipping?- Aviation – divide flight 50/50 origin/dest?
COMPLEXITY OF SHIPPINGCOMPLEXITY OF SHIPPING
Complex trading relationships : 1.8m port to port transits
180,000 port to port links10,000 country to country links
Bunkering Multi-load/discharge Landlocked countries Transhipment
Shipping and aviation are not the same:
Put in picture of container
map
Containership Transit Network
APPROACHESAPPROACHES
Global bunker fuel sales GDP Regional studies of pollution
in territorial waters The 50/50 scenario Trade imported/exported by
country and mode Tonne miles of trade
imported/exported by country and mode
Marine bunker sales 2006
REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS
What does the selected method need to do?
• Apportion fairly by country – how defined?
• Available information – trade by country, commodity?
• Clear methodology
• Be repeatable
• Be compatible with calculations for other transport modes
CountryCargo_Tonnes
(millions)Tonne_Miles
(millions)% of EU Total
TM
Belgium 5.43 8,599 1%
Bulgaria 7.58 3,456 0%
Cyprus 0.62 1,184 0%
Germany 36.14 30,705 3%
Denmark 5.04 2,048 0%
Spain 49.86 139,373 14%
Finland 10.20 3,769 0%
France 91.13 229,393 23%
United Kingdom 71.21 58,554 6%
Greece 19.79 43,613 4%
Republic of Ireland 3.34 2,332 0%
Italy 124.17 201,671 20%
Republic of Lithuania 4.45 1,513 0%
Malta 0.31 673 0%
Netherlands 94.93 215,888 22%
Poland 0.68 303 0%
Portugal 11.58 31,376 3%
Romania 7.84 4,034 0%
Republic of Slovenia 0.14 166 0%
Sweden 16.28 13,105 1%
Total 560.70 991,757 100%
TONNE MILESTONNE MILES
Seaborne oil trades Port to Port Quantity Route – Suez, Cape Distance Cargo Tonne Miles
+ Bulgaria & Belgium - Pipelines - Ballast
Analysis of Petroleum Exports
Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit
CRUDE OIL TONNE MILESCRUDE OIL TONNE MILES
Denmark
United Kingdom
Netherlands
PolandEstonia
Sweden Germany
BulgariaBelgium
Latvia
Lithuania
Seaborne Export Tonnes Miles from EU-25
Seaborne Import Tonnes Miles to EU-25
Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit
Spain
Finland
France
United KingdomGreece
Italy
Netherlands
Malta
Lithuania
Ireland
BelgiumSw eden
Poland
Bulgaria
Cyprus
RomaniaPortugal
Germany
Denmark
Slovenia
TRADE & SHIPPINGTRADE & SHIPPING
Global model. Same methodology to all countries Trade imported/exported to a country by mode Tonne miles of cargo imported/exported by country
To calculate emissions associated with trade to a country:
Origin/Destination of cargo, country level minimum Transport mode Agreed Distance from country A to country B Route from A to B, e.g. Suez, Cape of Good Hope – could be by
commodity Agreed emission factors for mode
WORLD TRADE DATABASE LMIU developed a detailed and consistent database of world
merchandise trade broken down by mode– Seaborne
Tanker Dry Bulk General Cargo
– Overland– Pipeline– Air
Value($) and Volume (metric tonnes) UN COMTRADE Database SITC rev3.HS Rev 1:
- + 1000 commodities, 245 countries- 20,000 unique trade routes, 3 million records
WHO TO BELIEVE:Importer or Exporter ?Crude Oil Russia to Cyprus
Exports Reported by Russia 16.8 Million Tonnes
Imports Reported by Cyprus 131K Tonnes
LMIU Observed Crude Tanker Capacity Russia- Cyprus 300K DWT
Motor Vehicle Parts Germany to Mexico
Value Tonnes$ per
Tonne
Imports Reported by Mexico 860,887,000 4,360,282 197
Exports Reported By Germany 517,722,000 74,757 6,925
Avg Value German M/V Parts to World 8,409
WORLD TRADE TONNESWORLD TRADE TONNES
World Trade Modal Split - Tonnes
Seaborne
76.5%
Overland
15.9%
Pipeline
7.3%
Air
0.3%
Seaborne Overland P ipeline Air
DATA CHALLENGESDATA CHALLENGESTrade Data
Inaccuracies/incompleteness in trade data: consistency in volumes, importer/exporter reporting differences, gaps in data.
Quantity of data – millions of trade data records, 4m ship movements a year.
Shipping Data
Country level mileage not as accurate as port to port level Ballast Transport routes for landlocked and Suez/Cape trades Pleasure/fishing craft/passenger vessels
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
Attention will continueAttention will continue – – Vessels reducing emissions, Vessels reducing emissions, emissions trading and country-level apportionmentemissions trading and country-level apportionment
StatisticsStatistics – – Accurate global level data is not yet availableAccurate global level data is not yet available
Trade data Trade data offers one possible method, butoffers one possible method, but
Data consistencyData consistency, integrity, accuracy, integrity, accuracy
A standardised methodA standardised method is needed – base for negotiations is needed – base for negotiations and policy measures on emissions reductionand policy measures on emissions reduction
WE CAN’T MODEL EVERYTHING…WE CAN’T MODEL EVERYTHING…12 hours in the life of the Pride of Calais:
ANY QUESTIONS?ANY QUESTIONS?