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1 Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward- looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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Page 1: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

1

Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference

Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013

2

Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Page 2: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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Portland

Los Angeles

Calexico

Seattle

Brownsville

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Nogales El Paso

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Kansas City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

Fastest Growing States

Ports

Borders & Interchange

C

To/From Asia

Portla

Oaklala

To/From Asia

To Europe, South America

and Africa

Industrial 16%

Agricultural 19%

Chemicals 15%

asosEagle Pass Laredo

Dallas

Eastport

a

Industriiiiialallllll 16%

Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%

ChChChChChemememememicicicicici alaallaaalss15%%

Intermodal 20%

Coal 20%

Autos 9%

Industrial 18%

Agricultural 17%

Chemicals 16%

Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012

• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &

Border Crossings

The Strength of a Unique Franchise

4

2004* 2012 2004* 2012

Successful Track Record 2004 to 2012

Operating Ratio 87.5%

67.8%

#1 – Industry Improvement

2004* 2012

EPS

$1.42

$8.27

ROIC

5.3%

14.0%

+25% CAGR

* 2004 adjusted for asbestos charge of $247.4 million.

-19.7 points

+8.7 points

7 Day Volume @ 184K

7 Day Volume @ 176K

Page 3: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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Record First Half 2013

Positives • First Half Records

– Earnings – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio

• Franchise Diversity Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes

2011 2012 2013

$2.89

$3.89 $4.40 1st Half Record

+13%

Earnings Per Share (June YTD)

2011 2012 2013

72.9

68.7 67.4

Operating Ratio (%) (June YTD)

1st Half Record

(1.3) pts

6

First Half 2013 Volume Drivers vs. 1H 2012 (Carloadings in 000s)

Shale Related

Base Chemicals

Autos & Parts

Lumber Hazardous Waste

Steel & Ferrous Scrap

Grain Coal Other

19 11 8

(6) (7)

(32)

(91)

(16)

Crude Oil +66%

Frac Sand +20%

Carload Growth vs. 2012

52 1H Volumes (000s): 2013 4,414 2012 4,476 Variance (62) (1%)

+39% +4% +3% +14% -33% -7% -20% -10%

(Excl Crude) (mostly Ag)

Page 4: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

7

Coal Trends

Natural Gas Prices* (NYMEX)

Electricity Generation*

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

*Through September 7, 2013

50% 50% 48% 48% 47%

38% 40%

17% 20% 19% 21% 20%

27%

30%

2007 2009 2011 2013

% from coal % from natural gas

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$2.71 $2.30

$2.49

$2.96 $2.92

$3.69 $3.35

$3.77 $4.07

$3.64 $3.41

2013 2012

*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – through August 2013

• 2013 Contract Loss • Weather • Natural Gas Prices • Mine Production Issues • Electricity Consumption

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

1Q 4Q

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

27,000

31,000

35,000

39,000

43,000

47,000

2011

2012

2Q 3Q

2013*

Total U.S. Electrical Generation (thousand megawatt hrs/day)

*NG1 Futures Price (19%) Flat

(5%) 3QTD

8

Agricultural Trends

Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change)

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13

-7%

-22% -17%

-20%

Flat

-16% -20%

-29%

Export Domestic

Est. Corn Production by State* (vs. 2012)

NE IA IL MN KS WI

24% 17%

53%

-1%

38%

16%

Est. U.S. Crop Production & Exports* (vs. 2012)

28%

-7% 4%

67%

9% 4%

Corn Wheat Soybeans

Export Production

*Source: USDA, September 2013

UP 2012 Volume Mix

Grain Products

34%

Grain 40%

Food & Refrigerated

26%

Page 5: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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2013 Volume Drivers

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)

2006 @192

2010 @172

January December

2011 @176.5

2009 @152

Coal

Automotive

YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)

Agricultural

TOTAL

Flat

+3%

-8%

-9%

+2%

-1%

+9%

Industrial Products

Chemicals

Intermodal

2012 @ 176

*Through September 8, 2013

2013 YTD * down 1%

10

Permian Basin

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Bakken

Canadian Crude

Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins

Utica

Barnett

$116 Brent

$116 Brent

$116 Brent

$113 LLS

$98

$100

$107

$107

TOTAL U.S. Crude Oil** (June 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 15.8 Imports 7.7 Production 7.2

Crude prices as of 9/6/13 Sources: Plains Posting, Argus Research, Platts, North Dakota Pipeline Authority

*Refinery & Blender Net Inputs **Supply & disposition categories not depicted. Adjustments and Inventory Changes

$84

Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail

West Coast (PADD 5)** (June 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 2.5 Imports 1.1 Production (excl. AK) 0.6 Alaska Production 0.5

Gulf Coast (PADD 3)** (June 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 8.3 Imports 3.8 Production 4.2

Cushing $111

Page 6: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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Shale -- It’s More Than Just Crude Oil

1H 2013 Vol (000s) % Inc Frac Sand 94.3 20 Pipe 17.1 (4) Crude Oil 92.5 66

4.5% of Total Volumes

Fertilizer Production Plant Construction/Expansions to potentially displace some imports

Polyethylene Expansions More than $10B of investment announcements (many in the Gulf)

Refined Petroleum Products Residual Fuel Oil & LP Gas

Manufacturing Expansions Including Steel and Plastics

Pipeline Construction UP participates in moving pipe shipments to build pipelines

Potential U.S. Economic Development

Frac Sand An average horizontal frac job uses between 30 to 50 railcars of materials per well

Pipe for Drilling Each well uses between 3 to 5 carloads of drilling pipe

Crude-by-Rail One tank car can hold ~650 barrels of crude oil

Union Pacific

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

‘13*

UP Wkly Carloadings

Housing Starts (mils)

Housing Trends

*Through September 7, 2013

• Housing represents ~8% of current UP volumes

• Lumber, Stone & Glass down 2,600 carloads a week, a 1.5% overall volume impact

• Housing also drives appliances, roofing, rebar, aggregates, and cement demand

• Including IP, Chemicals & Intermodal, return to normal could add volume growth opportunity of ~5%

Lumber, Stone & Glass

2013 YTD Lumber up

11%

‘04 ‘11* ‘09* ‘05* ‘07* ‘15 ‘17

Sep 2013 IHS Global Insight forecast

Page 7: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic

Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)

UP Interchange Points

New Industrial Investment

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

708 764 776 743

600

750 817

857

Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)

+5%

Ports

2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)

Agricultural 14%

Autos 45%

Intermodal 24% Industrial

10%

Chemicals 6%

Coal 1%

+9%

14

Portland

Los Angeles

Seattle

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

Borders & Interchange

Industrial 16%

Dallas

Eastport

Industrial 17%

Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private)

Assembly Centers (UP served and in Mexico)

Kansas City

Union Pacific Connecting NAFTA Markets Automotive

2003-2007 Avg.

2017E

16.6

14.4

16.7

U.S. Vehicle Sales* (MM)

* September 2013 IHS Global Insight

2012

2005 2017E

1.6

2.9

3.9

2012

Mexico Auto Production* (MM)

Page 8: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

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Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network

– ~10 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity

– ~3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico

• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &

Infrastructure

• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an

Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13

6%

3% 1%

4%

Flat

3%

-3%

3%

1%

Flat

8%

-8%

Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)

International Domestic

16

Investments Support Intermodal Growth Santa Teresa, NM

• Supports Sunset Route from LA to El Paso

• Close proximity to Maquiladoras in Northern Mexico

Strategic focal point for freight moving across the U.S. and the border

Page 9: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

17

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H13 2017

79.3 77.4

76.1

70.6 70.7

67.8 67.4 190

180

152

172 176.5 176

172

Raising the Bar – “Sub 65” Operating Ratio

Operating Ratio (Percent)

Sub-65

Targeting Sub 65% FY Operating Ratio

by 2017

7-Day Volume (000s)

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Est

$3.1

$2.5 $2.5

$3.2

$3.7 ~$3.6

10.2%

Capital Investments Supported by Returns

• Improved Profitability Drives Strong Cash Flow

• … Supports Investments that must meet high return hurdles

• … Supports Core Pricing that Drives Continued Investment

• Capital Spend to ~16% - 17% of Revenue for 2013 - 2017

ROIC*

Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)

12.4%

** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

14.0%

New Locomotive Purchases/Leases

Capital (excl Locos & PTC)

Positive Train Control

* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.

$3.15(excl PTC)

Page 10: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

19

3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

17.5

38 47.5

60 69

79

Growing Shareholder Value

Future Allocation Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H'13

$1.5

$3.0 $3.0 $4.2

$5.7

$7.1 $8.0

Declared Dividend Per Share (cents)

2007

4x +

2011 2012 2013

Dividends: • 3Q 2013 Declared Dividend increase of

14.5% • New Dividend Payout Target Range of

30 - 35% on a declared basis

Share Repurchases: • Continue Opportunistic Buying Approach • 9.1 Million Shares Remaining in Current

Authorization (as of June 30, 2013)

20

Union Pacific’s Future Prospects

• Leverage Strengths of Diverse Franchise

• Market-Based Pricing at Reinvestible Levels

• Focus on Productivity, Efficiency, and Innovation

• Invest to Strengthen and Enhance Network

• Drive Increased Profitability & Shareholder Returns

Page 11: Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference · Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013 2 Cautionary Information ... * 2004 adjusted

21

Question & Answer Session