Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Citi 2013 US and European Industrials Conference
Rob Knight, CFO – September 18, 2013
2
Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
3
Portland
Los Angeles
Calexico
Seattle
Brownsville
Houston New Orleans
Twin Cities
Nogales El Paso
Duluth
Oakland Omaha
Denver Salt Lake City
Kansas City
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Fastest Growing States
Ports
Borders & Interchange
C
To/From Asia
Portla
Oaklala
To/From Asia
To Europe, South America
and Africa
Industrial 16%
Agricultural 19%
Chemicals 15%
asosEagle Pass Laredo
Dallas
Eastport
a
Industriiiiialallllll 16%
Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%
ChChChChChemememememicicicicici alaallaaalss15%%
Intermodal 20%
Coal 20%
Autos 9%
Industrial 18%
Agricultural 17%
Chemicals 16%
Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012
• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &
Border Crossings
The Strength of a Unique Franchise
4
2004* 2012 2004* 2012
Successful Track Record 2004 to 2012
Operating Ratio 87.5%
67.8%
#1 – Industry Improvement
2004* 2012
EPS
$1.42
$8.27
ROIC
5.3%
14.0%
+25% CAGR
* 2004 adjusted for asbestos charge of $247.4 million.
-19.7 points
+8.7 points
7 Day Volume @ 184K
7 Day Volume @ 176K
5
Record First Half 2013
Positives • First Half Records
– Earnings – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio
• Franchise Diversity Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes
2011 2012 2013
$2.89
$3.89 $4.40 1st Half Record
+13%
Earnings Per Share (June YTD)
2011 2012 2013
72.9
68.7 67.4
Operating Ratio (%) (June YTD)
1st Half Record
(1.3) pts
6
First Half 2013 Volume Drivers vs. 1H 2012 (Carloadings in 000s)
Shale Related
Base Chemicals
Autos & Parts
Lumber Hazardous Waste
Steel & Ferrous Scrap
Grain Coal Other
19 11 8
(6) (7)
(32)
(91)
(16)
Crude Oil +66%
Frac Sand +20%
Carload Growth vs. 2012
52 1H Volumes (000s): 2013 4,414 2012 4,476 Variance (62) (1%)
+39% +4% +3% +14% -33% -7% -20% -10%
(Excl Crude) (mostly Ag)
7
Coal Trends
Natural Gas Prices* (NYMEX)
Electricity Generation*
Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)
*Through September 7, 2013
50% 50% 48% 48% 47%
38% 40%
17% 20% 19% 21% 20%
27%
30%
2007 2009 2011 2013
% from coal % from natural gas
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$2.71 $2.30
$2.49
$2.96 $2.92
$3.69 $3.35
$3.77 $4.07
$3.64 $3.41
2013 2012
*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – through August 2013
• 2013 Contract Loss • Weather • Natural Gas Prices • Mine Production Issues • Electricity Consumption
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
Other 13%
1Q 4Q
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
27,000
31,000
35,000
39,000
43,000
47,000
2011
2012
2Q 3Q
2013*
Total U.S. Electrical Generation (thousand megawatt hrs/day)
*NG1 Futures Price (19%) Flat
(5%) 3QTD
8
Agricultural Trends
Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change)
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
-7%
-22% -17%
-20%
Flat
-16% -20%
-29%
Export Domestic
Est. Corn Production by State* (vs. 2012)
NE IA IL MN KS WI
24% 17%
53%
-1%
38%
16%
Est. U.S. Crop Production & Exports* (vs. 2012)
28%
-7% 4%
67%
9% 4%
Corn Wheat Soybeans
Export Production
*Source: USDA, September 2013
UP 2012 Volume Mix
Grain Products
34%
Grain 40%
Food & Refrigerated
26%
9
2013 Volume Drivers
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)
2006 @192
2010 @172
January December
2011 @176.5
2009 @152
Coal
Automotive
YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)
Agricultural
TOTAL
Flat
+3%
-8%
-9%
+2%
-1%
+9%
Industrial Products
Chemicals
Intermodal
2012 @ 176
*Through September 8, 2013
2013 YTD * down 1%
10
Permian Basin
Marcellus
Eagle Ford
Niobrara
Bakken
Canadian Crude
Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins
Utica
Barnett
$116 Brent
$116 Brent
$116 Brent
$113 LLS
$98
$100
$107
$107
TOTAL U.S. Crude Oil** (June 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 15.8 Imports 7.7 Production 7.2
Crude prices as of 9/6/13 Sources: Plains Posting, Argus Research, Platts, North Dakota Pipeline Authority
*Refinery & Blender Net Inputs **Supply & disposition categories not depicted. Adjustments and Inventory Changes
$84
Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail
West Coast (PADD 5)** (June 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 2.5 Imports 1.1 Production (excl. AK) 0.6 Alaska Production 0.5
Gulf Coast (PADD 3)** (June 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 8.3 Imports 3.8 Production 4.2
Cushing $111
11
Shale -- It’s More Than Just Crude Oil
1H 2013 Vol (000s) % Inc Frac Sand 94.3 20 Pipe 17.1 (4) Crude Oil 92.5 66
4.5% of Total Volumes
Fertilizer Production Plant Construction/Expansions to potentially displace some imports
Polyethylene Expansions More than $10B of investment announcements (many in the Gulf)
Refined Petroleum Products Residual Fuel Oil & LP Gas
Manufacturing Expansions Including Steel and Plastics
Pipeline Construction UP participates in moving pipe shipments to build pipelines
Potential U.S. Economic Development
Frac Sand An average horizontal frac job uses between 30 to 50 railcars of materials per well
Pipe for Drilling Each well uses between 3 to 5 carloads of drilling pipe
Crude-by-Rail One tank car can hold ~650 barrels of crude oil
Union Pacific
12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
‘13*
UP Wkly Carloadings
Housing Starts (mils)
Housing Trends
*Through September 7, 2013
• Housing represents ~8% of current UP volumes
• Lumber, Stone & Glass down 2,600 carloads a week, a 1.5% overall volume impact
• Housing also drives appliances, roofing, rebar, aggregates, and cement demand
• Including IP, Chemicals & Intermodal, return to normal could add volume growth opportunity of ~5%
Lumber, Stone & Glass
2013 YTD Lumber up
11%
‘04 ‘11* ‘09* ‘05* ‘07* ‘15 ‘17
Sep 2013 IHS Global Insight forecast
13
UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic
Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)
UP Interchange Points
New Industrial Investment
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
708 764 776 743
600
750 817
857
Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)
+5%
Ports
2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)
Agricultural 14%
Autos 45%
Intermodal 24% Industrial
10%
Chemicals 6%
Coal 1%
+9%
14
Portland
Los Angeles
Seattle
Houston New Orleans
Twin Cities
Duluth
Oakland Omaha
Denver Salt Lake City
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Borders & Interchange
Industrial 16%
Dallas
Eastport
Industrial 17%
Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private)
Assembly Centers (UP served and in Mexico)
Kansas City
Union Pacific Connecting NAFTA Markets Automotive
2003-2007 Avg.
2017E
16.6
14.4
16.7
U.S. Vehicle Sales* (MM)
* September 2013 IHS Global Insight
2012
2005 2017E
1.6
2.9
3.9
2012
Mexico Auto Production* (MM)
15
Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network
– ~10 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity
– ~3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico
• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &
Infrastructure
• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an
Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
6%
3% 1%
4%
Flat
3%
-3%
3%
1%
Flat
8%
-8%
Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)
International Domestic
16
Investments Support Intermodal Growth Santa Teresa, NM
• Supports Sunset Route from LA to El Paso
• Close proximity to Maquiladoras in Northern Mexico
Strategic focal point for freight moving across the U.S. and the border
17
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H13 2017
79.3 77.4
76.1
70.6 70.7
67.8 67.4 190
180
152
172 176.5 176
172
Raising the Bar – “Sub 65” Operating Ratio
Operating Ratio (Percent)
Sub-65
Targeting Sub 65% FY Operating Ratio
by 2017
7-Day Volume (000s)
18
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Est
$3.1
$2.5 $2.5
$3.2
$3.7 ~$3.6
10.2%
Capital Investments Supported by Returns
• Improved Profitability Drives Strong Cash Flow
• … Supports Investments that must meet high return hurdles
• … Supports Core Pricing that Drives Continued Investment
• Capital Spend to ~16% - 17% of Revenue for 2013 - 2017
ROIC*
Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)
12.4%
** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
14.0%
New Locomotive Purchases/Leases
Capital (excl Locos & PTC)
Positive Train Control
* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.
$3.15(excl PTC)
19
3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
17.5
38 47.5
60 69
79
Growing Shareholder Value
Future Allocation Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H'13
$1.5
$3.0 $3.0 $4.2
$5.7
$7.1 $8.0
Declared Dividend Per Share (cents)
2007
4x +
2011 2012 2013
Dividends: • 3Q 2013 Declared Dividend increase of
14.5% • New Dividend Payout Target Range of
30 - 35% on a declared basis
Share Repurchases: • Continue Opportunistic Buying Approach • 9.1 Million Shares Remaining in Current
Authorization (as of June 30, 2013)
20
Union Pacific’s Future Prospects
• Leverage Strengths of Diverse Franchise
• Market-Based Pricing at Reinvestible Levels
• Focus on Productivity, Efficiency, and Innovation
• Invest to Strengthen and Enhance Network
• Drive Increased Profitability & Shareholder Returns
21
Question & Answer Session