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Chevron Corporation (Ticker: CVX)Analyst: Edward Weagel
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Recommendation for Chevron (CVX)
Recommendation: HOLD Target Price (12/31/2015): $124
Closing Price (05/11/2014): $117.03
Reasoning Behind the Recommendation CVX outperforms the other supermajors in profit per barrel. The company is investing heavily in new US and International projects. Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) per day in production is projected to
increase into 2017. The company reliably pays the shareholders.
Why not a BUY?Crude oil resources are depleting -- there is less “low hanging fruit”
The methods for exploration are becoming more technically challenging.
Exploration is becoming more expensive
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Strengths
Upstream Strengths Greater than 90% of earnings come from 27% of revenue Production per day is projected to increase to 3.1 million bpd of BOE. New Projects
Angola LNG project started shipping its product. Australia – Wheatstone LNG project Delaware Basin Kurdistan Region – 80% stake in Qara Dagh Block Marcellus Shale
Downstream Strengths Demand is expected to rise for refined products in the next 15 years. US Gulf Coast Petrochemicals Project
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Weaknesses
Risk-adjusted performance during the past 5 quarters The sector performed worse than the S&P. The company performed worse than the sector.
Upstream WeaknessesExploration expense is at a high for the past 5 years at $1.8 billionCapital and Exploratory expenditures are at a high for the past 5 years The increasing reliance on offshore drilling means more risks.
Downstream Weaknesses Historically, the segment is vulnerable to low margins. This segment contributes less than 10% to earnings For both US and International, sales decreased for refined products.
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Questions?
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Recommendation for Honeywell International (Ticker: HON)Analyst: Benjamin Yang
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $103
Closing Price (4/14/2014): $90.92
2013 Sales: $39.1 B
2013 Net Income: $3.96 B
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Strengths Ties to industries with positive outlook
High expected earnings growth through M&A-based competitive advantages
Transportation
Global Economy
Construction
Green Technology
Aerospace
ACS
PMT
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020$0.00
$5.00
$10.00 EPS
2X EPS
Year
EP
S (
$)
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Weaknesses Defense and Space (Aero) faces headwinds
Net income margin improvement capacity uncertain beyond 2015
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000 AeroDe-fense
Year
Aer
o R
even
ue
($M
)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.0%
10.0%
Year
Net
In
com
e M
arg
in
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Recommendation for Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (Ticker: KMP)Analyst: Robert Nagaki
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $90
Closing Price (4/14/2014): $77.70
Industry Overview
- Energy Transportation and Storage
Business Segments
- Natural Gas Pipelines
- CO2 Pipelines
- Product Pipelines
- Terminals
- Kinder Morgan Canada *Source of basic data company 10-k
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Positives
Tennessee Gas Pipeline El Paso Natural Gas Copano Pipeline Eagle Ford Gathering Cochin Pipeline Jones Act Tankers $14.8 billion in future growth projects
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Negatives
Interest Rates
Alternative forms of Energy Transportation
Terrorist Attacks
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Questions?
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Recommendation for PepsiCo (PEP)Analyst: Chase Eggleston
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $89
Closing Price (mm/dd/yyyy):
Segments• PepsiCo Americas Foods
• Frito-Lay North America (FLNA)• Quaker Food North America (QFNA)• Latin American food businesses (LAF)
• PepsiCo Americas Beverage (PAB)• Europe• Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA)
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Reasons for RecommendationPositives:
Return to Shareholders Share repurchases Dividends
- $2.27 per share to $2.62 per share
Size Cash Flows Revenue Volatility Low Risk
Growth Potential Shanghai’s DisneyLand At home beverage production
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Reasons for RecommendationThings to be aware of:
Consumer TrendsCommodity PricesCurrency ExchangeCompetitors
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Sources
1. IBIS World
2. Mergent
3. PepsiCo 2013 10-k
4. PepsiCo 2012 10-k
5. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2059583-pepsi-tingyi-take-aim-at-coke-with-disney-win
6. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/17/pepsico-enters-at-home-carbonation-market-before-c.aspx
7. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2018301-pepsico-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
8. http://advisor.marketscope.com/SP/msa/reports.pdf?reportURL=/indsurv/fnb/fnb.pdf
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Recommendation for PPG Industries (Ticker: PPG)Analyst: Marin Decaudaveine
Recommendation: SELL
Target price (6/30/2015): $181
Closing Price (4/10/2014): $189.96
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2013 PPG Overview
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• Very high return last year: 63.80% (S&P 500 return last year: 34.93%). Sell PPG to secure these gains
• Transitions optical business separation, which was very profitable, and had excellent margins (29.2% versus 9.4% for the whole company)
• Exposure to the risk of raw materials inflation. Titanium dioxide purchases are 70% to 80% of the cost of goods sold of the coatings business (84% of the total revenues of PPG in 2013).
• Architectural coatings segment is weaker than other coatings segment, despite the construction market recovery. Due to fewer competitive advantages.
• PPG’s performances are tightly linked to global economy.
Why selling PPG?
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However, PPG has some strengths
• Current PPG’s portfolio shift. Focus on coating activity (2004: 56%, 2014: 90%). Strong acquiring activity, and a lot of divestitures. Coatings manufacturing industry benefits from many positive points. Low capital intensive industry, stable earnings/cash, consolidating industry. High growth potential. Results improved in the long run.
• 25% of the firm's sales are from emerging regions. It will drive growth, because the western regions expand at a slower rate.
• High return of cash to shareholders ($1.35 billion in 2013), through buy-back and dividends.
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Questions?
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
Recommendation: “Sell”
Target Price: $60
Today’s Price: $56.77
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
47%
22%
11%
10%
8% 3%
Segment Revenues
Iron Ore
Aluminium
Copper
Energy
Diamonds & Minerals
Other Operations
Segments:
Iron OreAluminiumCopperEnergyDiamonds & Minerals
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Price of Aluminium
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
May-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
Price of Iron Ore
27
Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
China’s Influence
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
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Rio Tinto (Ticker: Rio)Analyst: Garett Mahoney
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Recommendation China’s economic and political changes will negatively
impact multiple segment revenues. Significant impact on iron ore prices.
Development of GHOST Cities cannot be sustained. China’s consumption will be cut.
Aluminium demand and price increase will be overshadowed by Chinese policy changes.
Poor HPR and Risk-Adjusted Returns shows investment would be more beneficial in Sector ETF.
Target Price: $60
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Recommendation for Schlumberger Ltd (Ticker: SLB)Analyst: Jordan Fuentes
Recommendation: HOLD Target price (12/2015): $114.00
Closing Price (4/14/2014): $98.46
% of Revenues
Reservoir Characterization DrillingProduction Eliminations & Other
27.05%
38.26%
35.19%
-0.49% % of Revenues
North America Latin AmericaEU/CIS/Africa MidEast/AsiaElimination & Other
17.12%27.32%
23.88%
0.98%
30.70%
Segments: Regions:
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Recommendation for Schlumberger Ltd (Ticker: SLB)Analyst: Jordan Fuentes
Recommendation: HOLD Target price (12/2015): $114.00
Closing Price (5/07/2014): $97.34
Positives:• Technological Innovation and Efficiency• Financial Performance against competition• Industry outlook quite positive
Negatives:• Highly Dependable on expenditures from Oil and Gas industry related to the
Exploration and Production of hydro-carbons. • Subject to risk related to foreign exchange and geo-political events• Alternative Energy production
Competitors:
Halliburton Company (HAL) Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI)
Weatherford International (WFT)
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Technological Innovation: SLB• 1.4 billion invested into
R&E • Over 125 R&E facilities
worldwide• Involved in optimization of
hydro-carbon rigs.• Improved efficiency for
customers• Shale, Fracking, Deep-
water E&P
• New drill bit can penetrate 92% further than traditional drills bits.
• World Record for shortest time between Exploration and Production: 14 Months
• Improved efficiency seen in production and financials.
• Wearable Intelligence:Google Glass
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Financials Advantage• Expanding Margins• Double Digit EPS growth• FCF Growth unmatched by
competition• Improved 2013: Asset
Utilization, Inventory Management
SLB
HAL
BHI
WFT
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Operating Margins: Annual
2012 2013
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Recommendation Stryker Corporation (Ticker: SYK)Analyst: Bryan Deshayes
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): 93
Closing Price (5/07/2014): 82.14
Company Overview 2013 Revenue : $9.02 Billion
- 4.2% Increase from 2012
Segments- Reconstructive (4.8% increase)- MedSurg (2.9% increase)- Neurotechnology and Spine (5.6% increase)
44%
37%
19%
Sales
Reconstructive
MedSurg
Neurotechnology and Spine
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Stryker Corporation Strengths
- Recent Acquisitions : MAKO, Trauson, Pivot, Patient Safety Technologies
- Fastest Long-Term Growing Dividend- Research and Development
Future Outlook- Reduced Cost Trend for Healthcare Providers- Lower Expenses (Reduced Non-Recurring Costs)
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Stryker CorporationOpportunities
- International Expansion : Emerging Markets- Aging Population (Over 65 to double by 2030)- Increased Obesity
Threats- New Entrants in the Market/Competition- Regulation- Litigation/Lawsuits
39
Stryker Corporation
Questions?
Recommendation for Union Pacific Corporation (Ticker: UNP)Analyst: Kathy Hollingsworth
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $206
Closing Price (5/0/2014): $184.84
2013 Performance Revenues
$21,963 (+5.%) Net Income
$4,388 (+11.3%)
20% Net income Margin (+1.2%) Earnings per Share Diluted
$9.42 (+13.92) Dividends
$2.96 (+18.88%)
Payout ratio 30%
Feb qtr $.91 (+15%)
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Strengths/Opportunities
• Current leader in the industry• Strong Brand Recognition• Operations are tied to the economy• Diversified commodity mix• Only railroad to have all six ports to Mexico• Dividends increase, 1-3x p/ year PO ratio low 30s• $60 million buybacks until 2017• Outperformed rail industry and S&P 500• Balance sheet healthy-Lowest debt-to-equity ratio .5• Investing capital into networks and infrastructure to grow• More manufacturing in Mexico (especially cars)• Investing in technology for locomotives
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Weaknesses/Threats
• Legacy contracts• Railroad Unions • Revenues tied to industry
commodity performance• Volatile fuel costs• Burlington North Pacific has
parallel lines• Enforcement of fuel
surcharges• Pending law suits regarding
price fixing• Coal Industry/Natural Gas
Competition• Pipelines
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Conclusion
Union Pacific Corporation Leading the Rail Industry Maintains strong financials Best choice among industry competitors as fuel costs rise Prepares itself to grow with the forecasted economic rise Taking care of their investors
It’s a buy.
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Walgreens Company (WAG)
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Walgreens Company (WAG)Analyst: Thai Yaparwong
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $76.00
Closing Price (5/07/2014): $65.43
Company OverviewOver 8,600 Locations
- 408 Healthcare ClinicsRevenue: $72.2 B (+0.8%)Net Income: $2.3 B (+10.6%)
Prescription DrugsFront End Products
63%
27%
10%
2013 Revenue Breakdown
Prescription Drug Sales
General Merchandise
Non-prescriptions Drug Sales
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Walgreens Company (WAG)Analyst: Thai Yaparwong
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $76.00
Closing Price (5/07/2014): $65.43
Reasons for RecommendationsStrategic Partnerships
Alliance BootsEurope, Asia & Africa
AmerisourceBergen10yr. Distribution Agreement
Global Platform Synergies2014 Projected: $425M2016 Goal: $1B
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Walgreens Company (WAG)Analyst: Thai Yaparwong
Recommendation: BUY Target price (12/2015): $76.00
Closing Price (5/07/2014): $65.43
Market Presence & ReputationBalance Rewards ProgramHousehold Name
Key DriversCreating a Well ExperienceAdvancing Community PharmacyEstablishing an Efficient Global Platform
Risks Uncertainty of Government RegulationUncertainty of International Economies