CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 1 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1
PROJECT MANAGEMENT CHAPTER 18 DAVID A. COLLIER AND JAMES R.
EVANS
Slide 2
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 2 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 18-1
Explain the key issues associated with project management. 18-2
Describe how to apply the Critical Path Method (CPM). 18-3 Explain
how to make time/cost tradeoff decisions in projects. 18-4 Describe
how to calculate probabilities for project completion time using
PERT.
Slide 3
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 3 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The
Olympic Games were established over 2,500 years ago. Athens,
Greece, was chosen in 1997 to host the 2004 Games, but badly
underestimated the cost and overestimated the citys ability to meet
construction and preparation schedules. Organizers were plagued
with construction delays and budget overruns, forcing them to
complete 7 years of work in just 4. Delays in the main stadiums
glass-and-steel room pushed back delivery of the entire complex to
the end of July, immediately preceding the August 13, 2004, opening
ceremonies. The International Olympic Committee had even considered
asking the Athens organizers to cancel the games. Problems also
occurred with other venues. Construction delays had consequences
for Greeces own athletes, forcing them out of their own training
centers. Even the famed Parthenon, which was to have been restored
for the Games, was still shrouded with scaffolding when tourists
began arriving. Despite all this, the venues were ready although
some at the last minute, and the Games were successfully
completed.
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CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 4 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. What
do you think ? Think of a project in which you have been involved,
perhaps at work or in some student activity. What factors made your
project either difficult or easy to accomplish?
Slide 5
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 5 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. A
project is a temporary and often customized initiative that
consists of many smaller tasks and activities that must be
coordinated and completed to finish the entire initiative on time
and within budget. Examples: market research studies, construction,
movie production, software development, book publishing, wedding
planning Project management involves all activities associated with
planning, scheduling, and controlling projects.
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Exhibit 18.1 Example Projects in Different Functional Areas That
Impact the Value Chain
Slide 7
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 7 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The
Scope of Project Management 1.Define: clearly understand the goal
of the project, responsibilities, deliverables, and what must be
accomplished. 2.Plan: determine the steps needed to execute the
project, delegate tasks, and identify start and completion dates.
3.Organize: coordinate the resources to execute the plan
cost-effectively. 4.Control: collect and assess status reports and
manage changes to baselines. 5.Close: compile statistics, reassign
people, and prepare a lessons learned list.
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The
Scope of Project Management Principles for Project Managers Manage
people individually and as a project team. Reinforce the commitment
and excitement of the project team. Keep everyone informed. Build
agreements and consensus among the team. Empower the project
team.
Slide 9
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 9 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The
Scope of Project Management Organizational Structure Pure project
structure with team members assigned exclusively to projects and
report to a project manager. Results in duplication of resources.
Pure functional structure charters projects exclusively within
functional departments. Ignores cross-functional issues. Matrix
structure, which lends resources to projects while still
maintaining functional control. Minimizes duplication of resources
and facilitates communication.
Slide 10
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Exhibit 18.2 Contributors and Impediments to Project Success
Slide 11
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 12
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 12 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. All
project management decisions involve three factors: time,
resources, and cost. Key steps to help plan, schedule, and control
projects are: 1.Project definition: identifying the activities that
must be completed and the sequence to perform them. 2.Resource
planning: determining resource needs for each activity. 3.Project
scheduling: specifying a time schedule for the completion of each
activity. 4.Project control: establishing controls for determining
progress and responding to problems. Techniques for Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling Projects
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Project Definition Example: Design and installation of a new
software system. Project Objective: To develop an integrative
software package within a predetermined budget and promised project
completion date that meets all system requirements while providing
adequate interfaces with legacy systems. Deliverables: (1) new
software package, (2) successful implementation of the package, (3)
pre- training of sales force and PC system operators.
Slide 14
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Project Definition Activities are discrete tasks that consume
resources and time. Immediate predecessors are those activities
that must be completed immediately before an activity may start.
Precedence relationships ensure that activities are performed in
the proper sequence when they are scheduled. The work breakdown
structure is a hierarchical tree of end items that will be
accomplished by the project team during the project.
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Exhibit 18.3 Project Activities and Precedence Relationships
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Project Definition A project network consists of a set of circles
or boxes called nodes, which represent activities, and a set of
arrows called arcs, which define the precedence relationships
between activities. This is called an activity-on-node (AON)
network representation.
Slide 17
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Exhibit 18.4 Project Network for the Software Integration
Project
Slide 18
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Resource Planning Resource planning includes developing time
estimates for each activity and allocating resources that will be
required. Cost control is a vital part of project management, and
resource planning aids in good budgeting.
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Exhibit 18.5 Wildcat Software Consulting, Inc. Project Work
Activities Times and Costs
Slide 20
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Project Scheduling With the Critical Path Method The critical path
is the sequence of activities that takes the longest time and
defines the total project completion time. Assumptions: The project
network defines a correct sequence of work in terms of technology
and workflow. Activities are assumed to be independent of one
another with clearly defined start and finish dates. The activity
time estimates are accurate and stable. Once an activity is started
it continues uninterrupted until it is completed.
Slide 21
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Project Scheduling With the Critical Path Method Rules for
calculating activity times: Rule 1: EF = ES + T Rule 2: the ES time
for an activity equals the largest EF time of all immediate
predecessors. Rule 3: LS = LF T Rule 4: the LF time for an activity
is the smallest LS of all immediate successors.
Slide 22
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Exhibit 18.6 Activity-on-Node Format and Definitions
Slide 23
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Exhibit 18.7 Wildcat Software Consulting Activity-on-Node Project
Network
Slide 24
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Exhibit 18.8 CPM Tabular Analysis for Wildcat Software Consulting
Using Normal Time
Slide 25
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Project Control A schedule specifies when activities are to be
performed. Because of uncertainty of task times, unavoidable
delays, or other problems, projects rarely progress on schedule.
Gantt charts graphically depict the project schedule so that a
project manager knows exactly what activities should be performed
at a given time. Project management software can assist in
allocating limited resources, such as labor and equipment that are
shared among all the activities.
Slide 26
CHAPTER 18 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 26 2013 OM4 Cengage Learning. All
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Gantt
Chart Symbols
Slide 27
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Exhibit 18.9 Early Start Schedule Gantt Chart for Wildcat Software
Project
Slide 28
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Exhibit 18.10 Example Gantt Chart of Wildcat Software with Activity
E Delayed
Slide 29
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Time/Cost Trade-Offs Crashing a project refers to reducing the
total time to complete the project to meet a revised due date.
Crash time is the shortest possible time the activity can
realistically be completed. Crash cost is the total additional cost
associated with completing an activity in its crash time rather
than in its normal time. Crash cost per unit of time = Crash Cost
Normal Cost Normal Time Crash Time [18.1]
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Exhibit 18.11 Wildcat Software Project Data Including Crash Times
and Costs
Slide 31
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Wildcat Software Consulting, Inc. Example How much would it cost to
complete the project in 20 weeks instead of the current 22 weeks?
How much would it cost to finish in the fastest possible time?
First, determine the crash cost per unit of time for each activity.
The only way to reduce project completion time is by reducing
activities on the critical path. Determine the lowest cost in
reducing the critical path. To minimize project completion time,
trial-and-error or linear programming can be used to determine the
lowest cost and shortest time.
Slide 32
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Exhibit 18.12 Normal versus Crash Activity Analysis
Slide 33
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Exhibit 18.13 CPM Tabular Analysis for Wildcat Software Consulting
for Target 20-Week Completion Time
Slide 34
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Wildcat Software Consulting, Inc. Example Crash cost per unit of
time for each activity: A - $400 per week B - $500 per week C -
$250 per week D - $50 per week E - $1,200 per week G - $1,100 per
week I - $1,000 per week Activities F, H, J, and K cannot be
crashed The only way the project completion time can be reduced is
by crashing activities on the critical path. When we do this,
however, another path in the network might become critical.
Slide 35
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Wildcat Software Consulting, Inc. Example In this example, several
options exist for completing the project in 20 weeks: Crashing
Option #1Crashing Option #2 Crash B by 1 week = $500Crash B by 2
weeks = $1,000 Crash C by 1 week = $250Additional Cost = $1,000
Additional Cost = $750 Crashing Option #3 Crash C by 1 week = $500
Crash E by 1 week = $1,200 Additional Cost = $1,700 The least
expensive option is the first. The critical path remains the same,
namely, B-C-E-F-H-J-K. Notice that although activity D costs only
$50 per week to crash, it is not on the critical path, so crashing
it would not affect the completion time.
Slide 36
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Exhibit 18.14 Wildcat Software Consulting 17-Week Project Schedule
at Total Project Cost = $39,550
Slide 37
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Solved Problem The critical path calculations for a project network
are shown below. Find the best crashing option to reduce the
project completion time to 17 weeks.
Slide 38
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Solution There are two critical paths: 1. Path A-B-D-F 2. Path
A-C-D-F Both paths take 19 weeks to complete. Only activity E has a
slack time of 1 week.
Slide 39
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Solution One Week Crash Options: We might first look at activities
common to both critical paths, namely A and D, and consider
crashing each of them individually. Other options are to crash
activities B and C together, activity F, and activities A and D
together. Crashing Option #1Crashing Option #2 Crashing Option #3
Crash A by 1 week=$400Crash D by 1 week=$200Crash B by 1 week=$350
Crash C by 1 week=$300 Total cost=$650 Crashing Option #4Crash
Option # 5 Crash F by 1 week=$500Crash A by 1 week=$400 Crash D by
1 week=$200 Total cost=$600 The lowest cost option is to crash
activity D by 1 week, costing $200. Now, all three paths through
the network are critical paths with a total duration of 18
weeks.
Slide 40
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Second Week Crash Options: Crashing Option #1Crashing Option #2
Crash A by 1 week=$400Crash D by 1 week=$200 Crash E by 1 week=$ 50
Total cost=$250 Crashing Option #3 Crashing Option #4 Crash B by 1
week=$350 Crash F by 1 week=$500 Crash C by 1 week=$300 Total
cost=$650 All other crash options cost more than Option #2.
Therefore, we should recommend that we crash D by a second week and
E by 1 week for a total cost of $250. All three network paths take
17 weeks to complete. The total normal costs are $3,900 plus
crashing D by 2 weeks (+$400) and E by 1 week (+$50), so the total
cost of a 17 week project completion schedule is $4,350.
Slide 41
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uncertainty in Project Management PERT (Project Evaluation and
Review Technique) is another approach to project management. PERT
was developed to handle uncertainties in activity completion times.
In contrast, CPM assumes that activity times are constant.
Slide 42
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Uncertainty in Project Management Three PERT estimates are obtained
for each activity: 1.Optimistic time (a): activity time under ideal
conditions, 2.Most probable time (m): most likely activity time
under normal conditions, 3.Pessimistic time (b): activity time if
breakdowns or serious delays occur.
Slide 43
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Exhibit 18.15 Activity Time Distribution for Activity B of Wildcat
Software Project
Slide 44
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Uncertainty in Project Management Expected Time = (a + 4m + b)/6
[18.2] Variance = (b a) 2 /36 [18.3] where: a is the optimistic
time estimate, m is most likely or probable, b is the pessimistic
time estimate PERT assumes a beta probability distribution.
Slide 45
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Exhibit 18.16 Activity Time Estimates for the Wildcat Software
Integration Project
Slide 46
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Uncertainty in Project Management The critical path is found using
the expected times in the same fashion as in the Critical Path
Method. PERT allows us to investigate the effects of uncertainty of
activity times on the project completion time.
Slide 47
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Uncertainty in Project Management The critical path is
B-C-E-F-H-J-K with an expected completion time of 22 weeks. The
variance ( 2 ) in project duration is given by the sum of the
variances of the critical-path activities: 2 = 1.78 + 0.11 + 0.44 +
0.11 + 0.11 + 0.11 + 0.11 = 2.77. This formula is based on the
assumption that all the activity times are independent. We can also
assume that the distribution of the project completion time is
normally distributed.
Slide 48
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Uncertainty in Project Management Although they expect completion
in 22 weeks, the project manager wants to know the probability that
they will meet the 25-week deadline. The z-value for the normal
distribution at T = 25 is given by z = (25 22)/1.66 = 1.81 Using z
= 1.81 and the tables for the standard normal distribution, we see
that the probability of the project meeting the 25-week deadline is
0.4649 + 0.5000 = 0.9649.
Slide 49
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Exhibit 18.17 Probability of Completing the Wildcat Software
Project within 25 Weeks
Slide 50
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Solved Problem For the PERT network below: a.What is the expected
completion time and variance for the project? b.What is the
probability that the project will meet a 12- day deadline?
Slide 51
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Solved Problem a.There are two paths, A-B-C-E-F = 12 days and
A-B-D-E-F = 14 days, through the network. The critical path is
A-B-D-E-F = 14 days. The variance of the project time is the sum of
the activity variances on the critical path or 1 + 0.8 + 1 + 0.5 +
0.2 = 3.5 days. b.z = (12 14)/ 3.5 = 2/1.871 = 1.07. From Appendix
A, the probability from - to z = 1.07 is P (z -1.07) = 0.14231.
Therefore, P(completion time 12) = 0.1423. Also, note that there is
only a 50 percent chance of completing the project within the
expected time of 14 days (that is, z = (14 14)/1.871 = 0 and
P(completion time 14) = 0.5000.
Slide 52
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Solved Problem The probability to meet at 15-day completion time is
found by computing z = (15 -14)/3.5 = 1/1.871 = 0.53. From Appendix
A, the probability from minus infinity to z is 0.53; P(z 0.53) =
0.70194, and therefore, P(completion time 15 days) = 0.70194.
Slide 53
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Slide 54
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posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Alternative Water Supply Single Project Case Study 1.Draw the
project network diagram and determine the normal time to complete
the project, activity slack times, the critical path(s), and total
project costs (i.e., baseline your project) using the Critical Path
Method. 2.Determine the best way to crash the project to complete
it in 35 weeks with revised activity slack times, critical path(s),
and total project costs. Provide reasoning as to how all crashing
decisions were made. 3.Activity times with the greatest uncertainty
are activities D, E, and H. Describe conceptually how you could
model this uncertainty in activity times. (You do not have the
necessary data to actually do this numerically.) 4.What are your
final recommendations?
Slide 55
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Alternative Water Supply Single Project Case Study