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25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 1


content

• shifts, trends & changing labour markets

• skills mismatch

• global mobility & migration

• labour market Hungary: state of play & prospects

• attracting, retenting & employer branding

• conclusion & discussion





The main shifts impacting the world of work



What does this new environment bring to the world of work?


migration & urbanization


Employers see the drivers of change both in technological developments…

Source: World Economic Forum, Future of jobs (2016)

6 25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz


…as in demographic and socio-economic developments




Changing labour market: towards job polarization… job creation in high- AND low- income occupations



Job creation, destruction and the squeezed middle



Followed by regional polarization… fast-growing tech-hubs versus lagging periphery

Source: Randstad, Flexibility@work 2016




Destandardization: companies use a wide variety of workforce solutions


The employment & recruitment industry provides a full range of workforce solutions







Reducing undeclared work & unemployment



Agency work ranks high on job quality


THE FUTURE OF WORK: A DIVERSITY OF DECENT EMPLOYMENT RELATIONS!


The Future of Work: a discussion seized by all international policymakers



Employers & the Future of Work: shaping the discussion as a thought leader!


Randstad Flexibility@work 2016: Future of Work in the digital age

IOE White Paper on Understanding the Future of Work

W.E.C. White Paper on the Future of Work

Randstad research report on global mobility & migration


The Future of Work will disrupt skills




Skill shortages in the European Union 35 million new high-skilled workers are needed in the coming years as a result of expansion and aging

The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 20

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

elementary occupations

plant and machine operators and assemblers

craft and related trades workers

skilled agricultural and fishery workers

service workers and shop and market sales workers

clerks

technicians and associate professionals

professionals

legislators, senior officials and managers

low-skilled

medium-skilled

high-skilled

European Union: job demand towards 2025 (in millions)

expansion demand replacement demand

Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply

25-4-2017


What skills will make a valued worker in 2020?



And what does talent want?

22

Lifelong learning opportunities

Virtual mobility

Positive country brand

High level of freedom of mind

Inspiring working environment

Diversity

Accessible talent borders

The ‘Perfect employer Inc.’

Skill recognition institutions

Source: Flexibility@work2015 25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz


Where is this talent: the global mismatch the skills are available, but not on the right location



‘people to jobs, jobs to people’ research on global mobility and labor migration commissioned by Randstad from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics

contents: • what moves talent?

• projecting developments in

labor supply and demand

• jobs to people? – assessing firm location choice behaviour

• key messages

The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 24 25-4-2017


What moves talent? global high-skilled talent chooses country of destination based on high wages, use of English and low taxes

The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 25

pull factors country of destination high-skilled impact

high average wage ++

English speaking ++

low tax-rates +

high unemployment benefits =

rigid employment protection -

union density -

high minimum wage -

25-4-2017


Key take-aways ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’

• people to jobs - skill specific demands coherent migration policies that account for skill-specific demands by the national economy, ease labor shortages and lead to substantial benefits on growth and employment

• size and composition - good institutions national institutions have important effects on the size and the composition of the migrant population; policymakers have strong incentives to create “good” institutions to attract or retain skilled and productive migrant workers in an increasingly global market

• jobs to people - offshoring activities access to qualified personnel already serves as a key determinant of firms’ decision to offshore activities; increased offshoring rather than relocation serves as firms’ more common behavioral response to skill shortages



Conclusions & recommendations

for a new migration-based economy to take hold, the present, outdated infrastructure for managing migration will need to be totally re-designed

• a balanced skill-related system

it should include a robust and flexible framework, with clearly defined immigration categories and objective eligibility criteria to spur innovation, fill skills gaps and promote development

• consult business

employers are in the best position to determine the skills and business models they need to effectively achieve their objectives, and governments therefore need to actively consult with them

• business advocacy

businesses should play a prominent role in advocating fair and open migration policies, identifying policy challenges and emphasizing the benefits of well-managed migration


labour market Hungary: state of play & prospects


Participation total

29

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1998Q

1

2000Q

1

2002Q

1

2004Q

1

2006Q

1

2008Q

1

2010Q

1

2012Q

1

2014Q

1

2016Q

1

%

Participation rate all age group 15-64 yr

EU 28

France

Germany

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

United Kingdom

25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1998Q

1

2000Q

1

2002Q

1

2004Q

1

2006Q

1

2008Q

1

2010Q

1

2012Q

1

2014Q

1

2016Q

1

%

Participation rate women age group 15-64 yr

EU 28

France

Germany

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

United Kingdom


Participation young

30

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1998Q

1

2000Q

1

2002Q

1

2004Q

1

2006Q

1

2008Q

1

2010Q

1

2012Q

1

2014Q

1

2016Q

1

%

Participation rate young age group 15-24 yr

EU 28

France

Germany

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

United Kingdom

25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998Q

1

2000Q

1

2002Q

1

2004Q

1

2006Q

1

2008Q

1

2010Q

1

2012Q

1

2014Q

1

2016Q

1

%

Participation rate 55+ age group 55-64 yr

EU 28

France

Germany

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

United Kingdom



Labour force trends demographics

Changes in working-age population and labour force by age, 2013-25, Hungary (%)


Demographics and participation in Hungary take-aways

• Hungary’s working-age population is forecast to fall by about 1%-2% between now and 2025.

• On the other hand the number of elderly (65+) is forecast to grow with 20%, putting pressure on funding pensions and health care

• Increase of participation in Hungary is needed and happening

• Participation still below EU average but catching up fast in all categories: women, youth and 55+




Employment outlook

Past and forecast employment, Hungary (millions)



Sector developments

Employment trends by sector, average annual growth rate, 2003-25, Hungary (%)



Skills prospects

Total job opportunities by qualification, 2013-25, Hungary (thousands)



Labour force trends skills

Labour supply trends by qualifications, labour force age 15+, Hungary (and EU) (%)


Forecast labor market Hungary towards 2025: take-aways

• Employment is rising slowly. In 2025 there will be only 50.000 more jobs than at present

• All employment growth will be concentrated in services and the public sector. Agriculture and manufacturing will even face a decrease while jobs in construction and transport will remain stable.

• The amount of jobs requiring high qualifications (managers, professionals and technicians) will expand in the next decade. Demand for medium and low-skilled workers will be limited to replacing the aging workforce

• The challenge for employers is finding and retaining the right talent



Why employer branding matters



4 steps to get the most of your employer brand



What do Hungarian workers want? most important factors looked for in an employer



Different profiles, different needs demographic differences



How do employers perform on important attributes? What candidates are seeking vs what employers score best on


conclusion & discussion


To conclude: the Future of Work …

• will lead us into a service-oriented economy, creating jobs that currently not exists, but that are non-routine based;

• is impacted by demographic change that is driven by an ageing society, resulting in the need of 35 mio high-skilled workers in Europe by 2050;

• needs active labour market policies to ensure that untapped potential can contibute to higher particpation rates leading to an inclusive and sustainable labour market;

• welcomes well-regulated migration to contribute to an competitive and agile economy

• provides opportunities for employer branding which will become increasingly important in the war for talent

what is needed to achieve this? 44 25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz


The Future of Work: The 3 key solutions provided by our industry



Thank you!

Q&A



The Future of Work for competitive countries

Ease migration

Extend the talent pool

Increase employability

Develop a talent

framework

Introduce a dynamic labor

market

Checklist Create a decent flexible labor market

with variation in contracts Modernize social security arrangements Project talent supply and demand

Understand what talent wants Invest in education Target the young, blue collar and/or

migration background

Discover women and older employees Adapt retirement policies Increase day-care opportunities to allow

on- and off-ramping of parents

Create life-long cross-sectoral learning institutions

Build PPPs with private sector

Facilitate free flow of remittance Mutual skill recognition Ease skilled migration policies


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