Annual Report 1984-1985

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Center for International Securityand Arms Control

AnnualReport1984-1985

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INTRODUCTION 4 SovietNuclear WeaPons Program 25______________-_____________________________-_■ Complying with Arms Control Agreements 25PARTICIPANTS 6 7_ 7777 77ISIS InternationalAdvisory Board 6 ____________________________________^^

APPENDIXISIS Executive Committee 81 7 77 , „ Activities and Publications of Center Members 26; Center Members 9

7 7 77 CenterPublications 32_^_^_ Staff 11

7 77 FormerVisitingFellows 33! Supporters 11

= Visiting Fellows 12

SEMINARS 16Research Seminars 16

The International Strategic Institute at Stanford (ISIS) adminis- . 77 '. 77ters two affiliated programs: the Centerfor International Secu- technicalSeminars 17rity and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States Community Seminars 18Forum on International Policy. Both the Center and the Forum ;bring togetherStanfordUniversity faculty members from several Public Colloquium Series 18scholarly disciplines with senior specialists from around the Seminars by Guest Speakers 19world for research projects, seminars and conferences, and in-ternational scholarlyexchange. The Centerand the Forum spon- ApHTNC 20sor publications series, including Occasional Papers, SpecialReports, and, through Stanford University Press, ISIS Studies in Arms Control Courses 20International Security and Arms Control and ISIS Studies in 7777777 777 '. 77International Policy. High^Sd^

RESEARCH 22

InternationalStrategicInstitute at Stanford ITOjectS LL320 Galvez Street 7~ ! '. ] . '. 7, 77. 7, '. 777

Stanford,

California 94305 Peaceand Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region 22

Center for InternationalSecurity andArms Control StrategicDefense Initiative 22(415) 497-9625 ~

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~ ; 777Crisis Management and Prevention 23© 1985 by the Board ofTrustees of theLeland StanfordJuniorUniversity ~

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~ ; 77Printed in the UnitedStates ofAmerica AccidentalNuclear WarPrevention 2^4

SovietMilitary Doctrines and Weapons Capabilities 24U.S. JointChiefs ofStaffandSoviet GeneralStaff 24

Verification ofArms ControlAgreements 25

Our obvious pride inThe Center continues

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During academic year1984-85, the Centerfor International Secu-rity and Arms Control experienced extraor-dinary advancement and productivity. Webroadened our training programs, the num-ber and range of our research projects, andthe scope of our outreach endeavors. Thisprogress, made possible by significant newfunds from foundations and individual do-nors, allowed us to welcome more members,fellows, andstudents.

occupy by the winter quarter. We thank themany friends who have helped us to obtainthe "Annex"—our euphemism for the newspace—as a temporary waystation to largerquarters.

to attach special importance to the fosteringof close ties with individuals and scholarlyinstitutions in countries of special interest tothe Center. During the 1984-85 academicyear, Center-sponsored delegations traveledto the People'sRepublic of China, Japan, andthe Soviet Unionto discuss arange of contem-porary international-security and arms con-trol issues. Center members participated innumerous international conferences and lec-tured at institutes and universities in bothEurope andAsia. We welcomednewmembersfrom China,Great Britain, and Israel as wellasthe United States.

the achievements of the past year does notblunt ourunderstanding of our shortcomingsand how much remains to be done in thepursuit of globalsecurity andmankind's free-dom from war. Werecognize that our respon-sibilities as a center dedicated to objectivescholarship and our tasks of research andeducationwill present continuing challenges.We are eagerto meet them.

We broadened thescope of our training activities during 1984—85 through the addition of a two-quarterundergraduate course on negotiations anddiplomacy. The Center also initiated twofellowship programs, one for midcareer sci-entists and another for journalists, and se-lected eleven Stanford graduate students asMacArthur Fellows under a newUniversity-wide program administered by the Center.

The Center supportedseveral jointresearch projects and theindivid-ual research of a number of Center members.Three of the joint projects described in lastyear's annual report resulted in publicationsduring 1984-85: The Reagan Strategic De-fense Initiative: A Technical, Political, andArms Control Assessment, released in a newedition by the Ballinger Publishing Companyand in a condensed version in InternationalSecurity; Strategic Missile Defense: Necessi-ties, Prospects, and Dangers in the Near Term;and Inadvertent War in Europe: Crisis Simu-lation. Work on the other projects has pro-gressed and should result in several specialreports and other publications during thecoming year.

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"Ourobvious pridein the achievementsofthepastyear doesnot bluntour under-standingof our short-comings andhow muchremains to bedone inthepursuit of globalsecurityandmankind'sfreedomfrom war."

Specialists from manyidisciplines havecontributed to these develop-

ments. In celebrating our fifteenth year sincethe Arms Control and Disarmament Programbegan and our second as a full-fledgedcenter,we acknowledge with gratitude the extraor-dinary contributions of ourmany colleagues,students, and fellows to the Center's workandattainments. We also wish to thank the mem-bers of the International Advisory Board andthe Executive Committee for their guidanceand support. None of our achievements wouldhave been possible without the backing ofStanford'sadministration, and, in thisregard,we owe a special debt of thanks to GeraldLieberman, Vice Provosf and Dean of Grad-uate Studies and Research, 1977—1985.

In lastyear's annual re- W. Lewis, Co-Directorport, we acknowledged the efforts of "an ex-traordinarily committed group of Stanfordfacultyand staff." We again want to empha-size how fortunate we are to have such col-leagues, friends, and supporters. We wish toacknowledgewith special thanks thecreativ-ity and dedication of Gerry Bowman in thebuilding of the Center for these past fifteenyears.

dsiUlSidneyD. Drell, Co-Director

the end of last year,the Center began to suffer serious growingpains; we had exceeded our space at GalvezHouse. With the University, we began toplanfor construction of expanded facilities adja-cent to Galvez House. For the interim, theUniversity has approved the installation of atemporary building, containing eight officesand a small conference room, which we will

The Center initiatedtwoprojects during the summer of 1985. Thefirst focuses on the development during thecoming decade of U.S. and Soviet strategicand political relations. The second examinesissues concerning treatycompliance with spe-cialreference to the allegations that the SovietUnionhas failed to abide fully by the terms ofexisting arms control agreements with theUnited States. This report summarizes theseand other ongoingprojects.

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Receptionat Galvez House

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Ernest C. Arbuckle, Chairman,Saga Corporation,MenloPark

Robert Maxwell,Publisher,Mirror Group Newspapers,London; Member, BritishHouse of Commons

Hisashi Shinto,President andChiefExecutive Officer,Nippon Telegraph andTelephoneCorporation,Tokyo

TaiyuKobayashi, Chairman,Fujitsu Limited, Tokyo

P. AnthonyRidder, PresidentISIS INTERNATIONALADVISORYBOARD andPublisher, San Jose

Mercury NewsThe International AdvisoryBoardof the International Strategic Institute at Stanford providesguidance for the development of the research, training, andoutreach activities of the Center for International Securityand Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United StatesForum on International Policy.

Jon B. Lovelace, Chairman, Kiichi Saeki, Senior Adviser,Naohiro Amaya, Special

Adviser to the Ministry ofInternationalTrade andIndustry, Tokyo

Capital Research and Nomura Research Institute.Management Company,Los Angeles

Tokyo

William J. Perry,Managing Adlai E. Stevenson, Counselor,Galvez House Marjorie B. Kiewit,President,Kiewit Foundation, Omaha,

Partner, H & Q Technology Mayer,Brown and Piatt,Chicago and Washington,Partners, Menlo Park

Nebraska D.C.

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John W. Lewis, William HaasProfessor of Chinese

School ofMedicineCENTER MEMBERSISIS EXECUTIVECOMMITTEE HerbertL. Abrams

Kenneth MelmonCenter members contribute to thePolitics; Chairman, ISIS,The Stanford faculty members work of the Centerfor International Security and Arms Con-

trol throughtheirsustained participation in researchprojects,teaching, seminars, and conferences. As of September 1985,

and Co-Director,Forumand Centerwho make up the Executive Committee of the International

Strategic Institute at Stanford review and guide the work of Stanford Linear AcceleratorCenterSidneyD. Drellthe membership roster included:the Center and theForum. Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky

Carl Djerassi, Professor ofChemistry

Stanford University Administration Members-in-ResidenceDonaldKennedy,PresidentAlan S. Manne, Professor of David Bernstein, ConsultantOperations Research;Director, International

Philip J. Farley, Senior ResearchAssociateGraduate School ofBusiness

Alain C. EnthovenEnergyProject Thomas Fingar, Senior ResearchAssociate

School of Engineering David J. Holloway, SeniorResearch Associate

TheodoreA. Postol, SeniorResearch Associate

Donald A. DunnElliott C. LevinthalGerald J.LiebermanSidneyD. Drell, Professor and

Deputy Director, Stanford M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell Nancy Okimoto, Co-Chairman,ISIS

Lyle M. Nelson, Thomas MoreStorke Professor ofLinearAccelerator Center;

Co-Director, Centerfor School ofHumanities and Sciences Lord Saint Brides, Arms ControlFellow

CommunicationInternational SecurityandArms Control Communication

Elie Abel

HistoryBarton J.BernsteinClaudeA. BussJames F. Gibbons,Dean, School

of Engineering; ReidWeaver DennisProfessor ofElectrical Engineering;Professor, CenterforIntegrated Systems

Daniel I. Okimoto,AssociateProfessor of PoliticalScience; Co-Director,Forum

Alexander DallinJamesJ. Sheehan

Political ScienceCoit D. Blacker«AlexanderL. GeorgeJohn W. LewisDaniel I. OkimotoCondoleezzaRiceRobert E.Ward

JamesE. Howell, TheodoreJ.Kreps Professor ofEconomics, GraduateSchool of Business

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Robert E. Ward, Professor ofPolitical Science; Director,Centerfor Research inInternational Studies

JoshuaLederberg, Sidney Drell,and Philip FarleySchoolofLaw

John H. Barton (on leave)

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Members-at-Large

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Thomas H. Johnson, LieutenantColonel,Director of theScience ResearchLaboratory, U.S.MilitaryAcademy, West Point

Robin Staffin, Staff Member,LawrenceLivermoreNational Laboratory

STAFF SUPPORTERSLew Allen, Director, The Center gratefully acknowl-JetPropulsion LaboratoryLee Randolph Bean,

Adlai Stevenson, Counselor,Mayer,Brown and Piatt

ISIS Administrative Officers andStaff edges the grants andendowment funds it received from foun-dations during 1984-85:John W. Lewis, Chairman

IndependentProducer Lynne Joiner, IndependentProducer

StrobeTalbott, Head, Nancy Okimoto, Associate Carnegie CorporationPaulBrown, AssistantAssociateDirector, LawrenceLivermore NationalLaboratory

Washington Bureau, Time Chairman (1984-87)MarjorieKiewit, President,

Kiewit FoundationEdwardL. Warner 111, Senior

Research StaffMember,Rand Corporation

GerryBowman, Administrator Columbia FoundationandTraining DirectorSt (1982-85)

Hiroshi Kimura, Professor ofPolitical Science andDirector, Slavic ResearchCenter,HokkaidoUniversity

YvonneBrown, Assistant to the Ford Foundation-StanfordWarrenChristopher,Partner,O'Melvenyand Myers

J.Fred Weintz, Jr.,Partner,Goldman,Sachs and Co.

Associate Chairman University endowmentJustinaChau,Secretary General ServiceFoundation«Richard DeLauer, President,

Orion Group Ltd.Albert Wheelon, Vice President,

Space and CommunicationsDivision,Hughes AircraftCorporation

Miriam Dejongh, Editorial (1984-85)Associate William andFlora HewlettGloria Duffy, President, Global

Outlook, Inc.JoshuaLederberg, President,

Rockefeller UniversityKristen Edwards, Librarian Foundation (1983-87)Rosemary Hamerton-Kelly, W.AltonJonesFoundationRob Elder, Editor, San Jose

Mercury NewsJoseph Martin,Jr.,Partner,

Pettit andMartinJohnA. Wilson, Senior Partner,

Wilson, Sonsini,Goodrichand Rosati

Assistant to the Chairman (1984)Kelly O'Neil, Secretary John D. and Catherine T.David Elliott, Vice President,

Research and AnalysisDivision, SRI International

Michael M. May, AssociateDirector-at-Large,LawrenceLivermoreNational Laboratory

MacArthur FoundationCenterProgram and ResearchStaff (1984-86)

John W. Lewis, Co-Director WeingartFoundationJackEvernden, ResearchGeophysicist, U.S.Geological Survey

Sidney D. Drell, Co-Director (1983-87)Masashi Nishihara, Professor of

Social Sciences, NationalDefense Academy, Japan

CoitD. Blacker, AssociateDirector and Senior The Centerthanks supporterswhocontributed funds in the

form of gifts: Evelyn Stern, whose gift made itpossible toinaugurate a newcourse, "Negotiating Arms Control";ForrestFrank; Robert Schauer; AnthonyRidder; J.FredWeintz, Jr.; John Wade; and Catherine Peck.

Shai Feldman, Senior ResearchAssociate, JaffeeCenterfor Strategic Studies,Tel Aviv University

Research AssociateHisahiko Okazaki, CondoleezzaRice, Assistant

Ambassador, Ministry of DirectorForeign Affairs, Japan David M. Bernstein, ConsultantJames Goodby, Research

Professor in Diplomacy,Georgetown University

Pei Monong, Deputy Director,Institute of InternationalStudies,Beijing

Philip J.Farley, Senior ResearchAssociate

Thomas Fingar, Senior ResearchSidney N. Graybeal,VicePresident, SystemPlanningCorporation

William Perry,ManagingPartner, H &c QTechnologyPartners

AssociateDavid Holloway, Senior

Research Associate♦Eric Hanson, Associate

Professor of PoliticalScience, Santa ClaraUniversity

TheodoreRalston,Representative,International LiaisonOffice,Microelectronicsand Computer TechnologyCorporation

TheodoreA. Postol, SeniorResearch Associate

LouiseRussell, SecretaryiAnnette Makino, MargaretRyukichi Imai, Ambassador

for Japan to theUnited Nations CommitteeonDisarmament

Sullivan, and XueLitai,StaffResearch Assistants

Kiichi Saeki, Senior Adviser,Nomura Research Institute,Tokyo

JasonBland, AlisonBrysk,Holly Coates, TerriGivens,Gerald W. Johnson, Senior Staff

Engineer, TRW Inc. Emily Goldman,HilaryMotoo Shiina,Member,

House of Representatives,National Diet, Japan

LaMonte, Noelle Morris,Ali Stoeppelwerth,andSteven Weber, StudentInterns

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VISITING FELLOWS

TedPostolandJiangZhenghao

Center actively contribute to research proj-ects, seminars, and conferences,pursue indi-vidual research and writing projects, andaudit courses. Arms Control Fellows for1984-85 included threepredoctoral and threepostdoctoral scholars, fellows from China andJapan, the Center's first journalism fellow,and a senior diplomat from the UnitedKing-dom. Also in residence, under a newprogramfor midcareerscientists, werethe Center'sfirstthreeScience Fellows.

Arms ControlFellowsChristopher Braith-

waite, owner, editor, and publisher of theBar-ton, Vermont, Chronicle,cameto Stanford asafellow appointed jointlyby the Center andthe John S. Knight Professional JournalismProgram. He attended arms control coursesand participated in seminars with fellows,faculty, and visiting specialists. Among arti-cles he prepared during the year was an in-depth description of the Center'sarmscontroland disarmament course, which appeared asa front-page feature in both the StanfordObserver and CampusReport.

Regina Cowen, apost-doctoral fellow from the University of Lan-caster's Centrefor theStudy of Arms Controland International Security, worked princi-pally on the topic, "U.S.-European Relationsin the Light of Dwindling Resources." Sheserved as a section leaderfor Political Science13BA, "Arms Control and Disarmament," andas an adviser to undergraduates preparingresearch papersonEuropean security.

a Ph.D. candidate in government at CornellUniversity, worked on his dissertation—acomparative study, focusing on the decisionsto develop tactical nuclear weapons in the19505,of innovation in weapons technologyin the United States and the Soviet Union.

Eric Hanson, Associ-ate Professor of Political Science at Santa ClaraUniversity, was in residence at Galvez Houseduring 1984 and again during the summer of1985. He worked with Center faculty to de-sign a course on arms control to be taughtat Santa Clara University each winter. Healso completed a manuscript entitled TheCatholic Church in SovietandAmerican Pol-itics: National Political Consensus, RegionalAlliances,andArms Control.

JiangZhenghao, Asso-ciate Fellowof the Institute of American Stud-ies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Bei-jing, was in residence at the Center fromOctober 1984 through September 1985. Inaddition to attending the arms control courseand participating in Centerseminars, hestud-ied therelationships between nuclear weap-ons and their "superstructure" of policy,strategy, and arms control, and he wrote onthe topic ofChina's foreign policies since 1949.

Alden F. Mullins, Jr.,a postdoctoral fellow in political science, cameto the Center on leave from Lawrence Liver-more National Laboratory. Between Septem-ber 1984 and August 1985, he completed amanuscript entitled Born Arming: MilitaryCapabilities in DevelopingCountries. Healsoworked on a research project on West Euro-pean navies, presented a lecture to the armscontrol course, and assisted several under-graduates in thepreparation of theirresearchprojects.

Gregory S. Parnell, aU.S. Air Force Major, was in residence at theCenterfrom January 1984 through July 1985completing his dissertation, "Large Bilateral

GeorgeSmith

GregParnell

Reductions in Superpower Nuclear Weap-ons." Hereceived his Ph.D. in Julyfrom Stan-ford's Department of Engineering-EconomicSystems. Parnell is one of the authors of therecentCenterpublication, Inadvertent War inEurope: Crisis Simulation.

Edward Rhodes, aPh.D. candidate at the Woodrow WilsonSchool of Public and International Affairs atPrinceton University, completed his disserta-tion on extended nuclear deterrence—theproblem of using nuclear weapons to deterSovietactions other than an all-out attack onthe United States.

Lord Saint Brides,former British High Commissioner to India,Pakistan, and Australia, worked on his mem-oirs and a study of security and political rela-tions in South Asia. He spoke to the Center'sclass on arms control negotiations and lec-tured widely onEast-Westrelations andothertopics. Lord Saint Brides remains at the Cen-ter as a member-in-residence.

Hideshi Takesada, aprofessor at the National Defense College inJapan, was in residenceat the Centerthrough-out 1984 preparing a manuscript on Koreaand the security of Japan. He left in January1985 to spend a year at the Institute of Sino-Soviet Studies at George WashingtonUniversity.

Science FellowsIn 1984, theCentermi

tiatedthe Science FellowsProgram toprovidemidcareer scientists with specialized trainingin arms control and international-security is-sues. The program, supported by the Carne-gie Corporation of New York, awarded fel-lowships to three scientists for the academicyear and summer of 1984—85.

John Ernest, a mathe-matician on the faculty of the University ofCalifornia, Santa Barbara, conducted re-search primarily on the "Helsinki process,"studying the prospects for a confidence- andsecurity-building network in Europe and theissues of trade and human rights. He alsoprepared an essay about constraints on acomplex strategic missile defense system.

Theodore A. Postol, aphysicist and former Assistant for WeaponsTechnologyin the Office of the ChiefofNavalOperations, concentrated on research andwriting during hisyear as a Science Fellow. Hecompleted several articles: "Nuclear Winter:Strategic Significance," published by the Na-tional Academy of Sciences in Issues in Sci-ence andTechnology, winter 1985; "StrategicConfusion—with or without Nuclear Win-ter," in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,February 1985; and "TheImplications of Tri-dentfor Stability,"in Oceanus, summer 1985.Postol remains at the Center as a Senior Re-search Associate.

George Smith, of Law-rence Livermore National Laboratory, holdsadvanced degrees in physics and law. His workat the Centerfocused on an exploratory dis-cussion of potential Soviet countermeasuresto U.S. strategic defenseactivities. As part ofthat effort, he completed an article, "Instabil-ities En Route to StrategicDefense."

Visiting fellows at the Matthew Evangelista,

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candidate in appliedphysics—participated inCenter seminars as affiliate fellows and inter-acted with visiting fellows, faculty, and staffwhile continuing doctoral research related tosecurity and arms control issues.

MacArthur Fellows Summer ResidentsVISITORSSTUDENTS In December 1984, the Several visitors spentJohn D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foun-dation awardedfunds to Stanford Universityto provide fellowships for graduate studentsspecializing in international security and armscontrol. The Center administers the programfor theUniversitythrougha faculty committeedrawnfrom departments throughout theUni-versity. Thefirst fellowship competition, heldin the springof 1985,resulted in the awardingofeleven grants.

portions of summer 1985 in residence at theCenter.Leo Sartori,Professor ofPhysics at theUniversity ofNebraska, was at Galvez Housefor the months of June and July; Hua Di,Research Fellow at the Institute of AmericanStudies, Beijing, spent the month of June atthe Center; Hans-Henrik Holm, AssociateProfessor, Institute of Political Science, Uni-versity of Aarhus, Denmark, came for twoweeks in August; and Norman Dombey, Pro-fessor of Physics at the University of Sussex,camefor the month of August.

Student InternsOpportunities to work

closely with Center specialists have encour-aged students' interest in arms control andsecurity issues early in their academic careers.Stanford graduatestudentsAlison Brysk,HollyCoates, Emily Goldman, and Steven Weberworked at the Center as research assistantsduring 1984-85.

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Receiving grants forthe write-up of their dissertations wereGordon Chang (history), Edward Gilliland(sociology), Jeffrey Hughes (political science),David Lumsdaine (political science), BryanMcGinnis (law), Scott Pious (psychology),and JulieStrickland (political science).

Several undergradu- Li Pengates, some inspired by their work in the armscontrol courses, aided Center staff in varyingcapacities. Assisting during 1984-85 wereJason Bland, Terri Givens, Hilary LaMonte,NoelleMorris, and Ali Stoeppelwerth.

The Center and Forumserved as hosts for the visit to Stanford Uni-versityof Li Peng,Vice Premierof thePeople'sRepublic of China, on July 28, 1985. VicePremier Li spoke to Stanford students fromChina, visited the Stanford Center for Inte-grated Systems, and met with a group ofSili-con Valley executives and faculty members fora question-and-answer session on the rela-tionship of the university and industry in thedevelopmentof advanced technologies.

Recipients of researchgrantsfor summer 1985, all students in polit-ical science, were Patrick DeSouza, EmilyGoldman, Harry Papasotiriou, and JaniceThomson.

The MacArthur Fel-lows,who will participate in the full range ofCenteractivities, met to discusstheir researchprograms at a seminar in August. Furtherfellowship competitions are scheduledfor fall1985 andspring 1986.

Other VisitorsMany visitors to the

Center presented seminars and are namedlater in this report. In addition, the Centerwas happyto welcomeJeffreyBingaman, U.S.Senator from NewMexico; Alan Neidle, Di-rector, Project on Arms Control of the Asso-ciation of the Bar of the City of New York;Ashton Carter, Assistant Professor, KennedySchool of Government, Harvard University;Janne Nolan, Senior Legislative Assistant toSenator Gary Hart; Sidney Graybeal, VicePresident, SystemPlanningCorporation; Vic-tor Li, President, East- West Center; ThomasH. Johnson, Lieutenant Colonel, Director ofthe Science Research Laboratory, U.S. Mili-tary Academy, West Point; and Jack Burby,editorial writer,Los Angeles Times.

AffiliateFellowsTwo Stanford gradu-

atestudents—Eric Horvitz, a Ph.D. candidatein computer science, and John Mattox,aPh.D.

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JohnLewis escortsLi Pengon campus tourMatt Evangelista

and EdRhodes

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TECHNICAL SEMINARS Science FellowsProgram, CenterCo-DirectorSidney Drell organized a series of technicallyoriented seminars for scientists at Stanford

RESEARCH SEMINARSRobin Staffin, Staff Member, Lawrence Liv-

ermore National Laboratory, "SyntheticApertureRadar" (February)and throughout theBay Area. Seminars dur-

ing 1984-85 included: Donald McKenzie, Lecturer in Sociology,University of Edinburgh, "Inertial Guid-ance Systems" (February)Sidney Drell, "The Strategic Defense Initia-

tive" (September)George Smith, Science Fellow, "Countermea-

sures to Strategic Defense Concepts"Jack Evernden, ResearchPhysicist, U.S. Geo-

logical Survey, "Seismic Detection of Un-dergroundTests" (February)

Kosta Tsipis, Professor, Department of Phys-

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(October)Theodore Postol, Science Fellow, "ABM

Systems That We Know How to Build"(October and November)

< ics, Massachusetts Institute of Technol-ogy, "Observations on the Strategic De-fense Initiative" (March)Gerald Yonas, Acting Deputy Director and

Chief Scientist, Strategic Defense Initia-tive Office, "Technology Overview ofSDI"(October)

Gordon Feller, ExecutiveDirector, Ark Foun-dation, "International Early Warning andVerification" (March)

Rudolph Peierls, Professor of TheoreticalPhysics (retired), Oxford University, "TheBritish Atomic Bomb Project" (October)

James Hannon, Program Manager, SeismicMonitoring Research Program, Law-rence Livermore National Laboratory,"Seismic Verification of UndergroundTests" and "Decision Analysisfor a CTBT"(April)

Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Assistant Professor,Industrial Engineering and EngineeringManagement, Stanford University, "Stra-tegic Nuclear Warning Systems"(November)

Seminar in theconferenceroom atGalvez House

Jean Langlois, Professor of Applied Mathe-matics, University of California, Berke-ley, "Mathematical Modeling of CrisisDynamics" (April)

The research seminar Eric Hanson, "The Catholic Church in Eu-series provides opportunities for the visiting rope andEast-WestRelations" (December)fellows, faculty, and staff to discuss their cur- George Smith, "Limited Strategic Defenserent research activities with each other. The Using ICBMs" (January)

David Elliott, Vice President, SRI Interna-tional, "The Army's View of TerminalDefense" (December) William Kaufman, Professor, Kennedy School

of Government,Harvard University,"Analysis of the U.S. Defense Budget,""Sizing the U.S. Navy," and "AlternativeStrategiesfor NATO Defense" (May)

1984-85seminars series included: Regina Cowen, "EuropeanSecurity Perspec-Gregory Parnell, "Incentives for U.S./Soviet tives"(February and May)

Arms Procurement and Control" Lord Saint Brides, Lessons from South Asia(October) (February)

Coit Blacker, "U.S.-Soviet Relations" Edward Rhodes> "Nuclear Weapons, Irra-/October) tional Behavior, and Extended Deter-

John Ernest, "The Helsinki Process" , rencf" (April)(November) Christopher Braithwaite, The Press andArms

Alexander George, David Bernstein, Gregory . C°n]

tro1" (Apr^t _, , . , . ,

Parnell, and Philip Rogers, "Inadvertent Jian§ Zhenghao, Zhou Enlai and China s

War in Europe: Crisis Simulation" ForeignPolicy" (May)(November) Matthew Evangehsta, Soviet and American

Hideshi Takesada, "Changes in North Ko- Patterns ofWeaponsinnovation: The Caserean Foreign Policy and Their Implica- ofTactical NuclearWeapons May)tions for Northeast Asian Security" Herbert Abrams, Sidney Drell, Philip Farley,(November) Wolfgang Panofsky, and David Hollo-

way, "Reports on Recent International

Philip Morton, Accelerator Physicist, Stan-ford Linear Accelerator Center, "FreeElectron Lasers" (December)

George Smith, Science Fellow, "Limited Stra-tegicDefense Using ICBMs" (January)

William Moran, Vice Chairman, NationalSidneyDrell, "CurrentStatus ofSDI" (May)

kGregory Parnell, Arms Control Fellow, "Large

Bilateral Nuclear Weapons Reductions"(May)

Academy of Science Study on NuclearWinter, "NuclearWinter" (January) Herbert Abrams, Professor of Radiology,

Stanford School of Medicine, "HumanFallibility in Managing Nuclear Weap-ons" (June)

John Deutch, Dean of Science and Professorof Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, "Chemical Warfare/Biologi-cal Warfare" (January)

George Smith, Science Fellow, "InstabilitiesEn Route to StrategicDefense" (June)TheodorePostol, Science Fellow, and Malvin

Ruderman, Visiting Professor, StanfordLinear Accelerator Center, "NuclearWinter" (January)

Conferences" (August)

In conjunction with the

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John Ernest, Science Fellow, "The HelsinkiProcess" (February)

past and currentarms control issues. Thefac-ulty members teachingthe basic courseadaptedtheir lectures to fit the series format. Collo-

Each year the Center Visitors to the Center Thomas Risse-Kappen, Peace Research Insti-tute, Frankfurt, "The West German Do-mestic Security Debate" (March)

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COMMUNITYSEMINARS

SEMINARS BYGUEST SPEAK]

presents a series of lunchtime seminars forindividuals from the community-at-large in-terested in arms control issues. The 1984—85

presented special seminars throughout 1984--85. The guest speakers and their topicsincluded:

SPEAKERSquia speakers and topics included: Seweryn Bialer, Professor, Department of

Political Science, Columbia University,"SuperpowerRelations" (April)

Shai Feldman, Senior ResearchAssociate,Jaf-fee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv

seminars included: John Lewis and Condoleezza Rice, "Intro-duction and the Arms Control Process"(October)

Seymour Goodman, Professor of Manage-ment Information Systems, University ofArizona, "Technology Transfer and theDevelopment of the Soviet ComputerIndustry" (October)

Coit Blacker, Sidney Drell, and John Lewis,"Arms Control and International Secu-rity: The View from Moscow, Beijing,andTokyo" (October)

SidneyDrell, "ThePhysics and TechnologyofNuclearWeapons" (November) University, "U.S. Middle East Policy: An

Israeli Perspective" (April)\David C. Jones,former Chairman ofthe JointChiefs of Staff, "Reforming the JointChiefs of Staff" (November)

Theodore Postol, "The Effects of NuclearWeapons" (November)

Coit Blacker, "TheBuildup ofNuclearWeap-

Aleksandr G. Yakovlev,Chief,Department ofChinese Foreign Policy, Institute of FarEastern Studies, Soviet Academy of Sci-ences, "Soviet Views on Asian-PacificSecurityIssues" (November)

Robert Neild, Professor of Economics, Cam-bridge University, "The Menace of Bal-ance" (May)JamesE. Goodby, Chiefof theU.S. delegation

to the Stockholm Conference on Confi-dence- and Security-Building Measuresand Disarmament in Europe, "Status andProspects of the Stockholm Conference"(January)

Sidney Drell, "What Should We Be Doing inStrategicDefense?" (March)

ons" (December)Jonathan Dean, Ambassador andformer Head,

U.S. delegation to the MBFR (mutual andbalanced force reductions) negotiations,"The Present State of and Prospects forMBFR" (May)

Condoleezza Rice, "The Postwar History ofArms Control" (January) Steven Kull, Fellow, Peace and Common

SecurityInstitute, "ThePsychology of theSoviet-American Nuclear Arms Race"(November)

JohnLewis, "U.S. Strategic Doctrine" (January)David Holloway, "SovietStrategicDoctrine"

(February)Hua Di, Research Fellow, Institute of Ameri-

can Studies, Chinese Academy of SocialSciences, "Structuring a Peaceful andProsperous Future" (June)

Father Bryan Hehir, National Conference of

Philip Farley, "SALTI" (February) Robert O'Neill,Director, International Insti-tute for Strategic Studies, London, "TheCurrent Research Agenda of IISS"(December)

Coit Blacker, "The Reagan AdministrationandNuclear Weapons" (March)Barry Blechman, Senior Fellow, Center for

Strategic and International Studies,Georgetown University, "Toward aMoreEffective Defense" (April)

Gerard Smith, Chairman of the Board of Di-

Gloria Duffy, "SALTII" (April)Philip Farley, "Proliferation" (April)Wolfgang Panofsky, "Efforts at Negotiating

RichardF. Kaufman, Assistant Director, JointEconomic Committee, U.S. Congress,"TheSlowdown inSoviet Defense Spend-ing" (December)

Catholic Bishops, "The Challenge ofPeace" (June)TestBan Treaties" (April)

William Perry, "Measures for PreventingNu- David Rosenberg, Visiting Professor of His-tory, Naval War College, "U.S. NuclearWar Planning from 1945 to 1975" (June)

rectors of the Arms Control Association,"Prospects for Current Arms Control clear War" (May) Hans-Henrik Holm, Associate Professor, In-

stitute of Political Science, University ofAarhus, Denmark, "New Actors in thePolitics ofEuropeanSecurity" (January)

Negotiations" (May) SidneyDrell, "StrategicDefense"(May)Yuri Zmushkin, Head, Department of Ideol-

ogy and Propaganda, Institute of theUnited States and Canada, Soviet Acad-emy of Sciences, "Arms Control Issues"

Father Bryan Hehir, "The U.S. Strategic De-bate: Moral and Political Themes" (June)

The Center invited the Eric Hinterman, Assistant Secretary General,Western European Union, "Status andCurrent Activities of the Western Euro-pean Union" (January)

PUBLIC COLLOQUIUM Stanford community and the public to a newSERIES series of colloquia on arms control and disar- (July)

mament, presented on campus weeklythroughoutacademicyear 1984—85.The ma-terials presented wereselectedfrom the basic

RichardDeLauer, UnderSecretaryofDefensefor Research and Engineering, 1981-85,"TheStatus of SDI" (July)

Stephen Sestanovich, National SecurityCouncil, "SovietViews of Parity, Equal-ity, and Equal Security in the StrategicNuclearBalance" (February)

Robert Jervis, Professor, Department ofPolitical Science, Columbia University,"Taking the Nuclear Revolution Seri-

arms control course, Political Science 13B A, JanosRadvanyi, Professor,Department ofPo-litical Science, Mississippi State Univer-sity, "Politics in East Europe: Trends fortheFuture" (August)

Joshua Lederberg, President, Rockefeller

toprovide for the layperson abackground onnuclear weapons, U.S.-Soviet relations, and

ously: Implications for Morality, Policy,and Research" (March)

University, "Problems of Biological War-fare" (August)

Hans-Henrik Holm, Associate Professor, In-stitute of Political Science, University ofAarhus, Denmark, "European Attitudestoward SDI" (August)

19

Ned Lebow, Professor, Department of Gov-ernment, Cornell University, "New Ap-proaches to Security" (March)

WolfgangPanofskyandGerard Smith

18

I

s

20 21

ARMS CONTROLCOURSES

Arms Control and Disarmament(PoliticalScience 138A)

The Center sponsoredits basic course, "Arms Control and Disar-mament," for thefourteenth consecutive yearin the 1985 winter quarter. Thefall 1984and1985 orientation issues of the student news-paper, the StanfordDaily, listed thecourse asoneof a dozen "all-time favorite classes" anddescribed it as a "must" that is "comprehen-sive, thought-provoking and difficult."

Student enrollment to-taled more than one hundred fifty. The Stan-ford Instructional TelevisionNetwork (SITN)broadcast the course, offering it to Bay Areacorporations and research institutions thatparticipate in the network's broadcast pro-gram. SITN alsowill licensevideotapes of thecourse to universities and organizationsthroughout the country.

John Lewis, SidneyDrell, Coit Blacker, and Philip Farley consti-tute thecourse's continuing staff. Lectures in1985were presented also by Stanford facultyand Center fellows and members includingDavid Bernstein, David Holloway, TheodorePostol, William Perry, Albert Wheelon, Glo-ria Duffy, Condoleezza Rice, AlexanderGeorge, James Sheehan,Alden F. Mullins, Jr.,Clint Smith, Daniel Okimoto, and WolfgangPanofsky.

Seminar in Arms ControlandInternational Security(PoliticalScience 138B)

The advanced under-graduate course, "Seminar in Arms Controland InternationalSecurity,"providesstudents

with an in-depth exposure to current armscontrol and international-security issues. En-rollment is limited to about twenty. CoitBlacker taught the course during the 1985spring quarter as a research tutorial class.Students met as a group each week to discusscontemporary issues and wrote original re-search papers in close consultation with as-signed tutors.

Negotiating Arms Control(PoliticalScience 138Dand E)

During the winterquarter, the Center sponsored a new course,"Negotiating Arms Control," on the role ofnegotiations and diplomacy in internationalsecurity and arms control. Organizedby JohnLewis, the lectures, by visiting senior diplo-mats and Center faculty, included firsthand

Televised lecture toclass on"Arms ControlandDisarmament"

accountsby participants both in arms controlnegotiations and in such diverse negotiationsas those leading to the Law of the Sea, theRhodesia/Zimbabwe settlement, and the re-lease of the hostages in Iran. Speakers in-cluded James Goodby, Alan Neidle, PhilipFarley, Warren Christopher, Tommy Koh, LordSaint Brides, Gerald Johnson, Wolfgang Pan-ofsky, Barry Blechman, Janne Nolan, SidneyGraybeal, Jonathan Dean, and GerardSmith.The course is to become part of the regulararms control sequence.

During the springquarter, in arelated specialseminar taughtbyAlexanderDallin and Alexander George, eachstudent prepared aresearch paper studying ahistorical case of U.S. -Soviet cooperation inarmscontrol negotiations.

Related CoursesCenter members on the

Stanfordfaculty taughtother courses relatingto arms control and international securityduring 1984-85. Condoleezza Rice taught"The Role of the Military in Politics" (Politi-cal Science 117B), a survey of the interactionbetween military and political authorities in

Class on "Negotiating ArmsControl" meetsat GalvezHouse

Western, Communist, and developing states.Coit Blacker and Condoleezza Rice taught"U.S. and Soviet National Security Policies:TheResponsibilities ofEmpire in the NuclearAge" (Political Science 133R), an examina-tion of the formulation and execution of na-tional-securitypolicy in the United States andSoviet Union. Barton Bernstein taught "TheAtomicBomb as History, 1939-55" (History755), an analysis of the use of the atomicbomb, the roles of scientists, problems ofpostwar international control of atomic en-ergy, the quest for the hydrogen bomb, therise of nuclear strategy, and the issues of"atomicspies."

HIGH SCHOOLS PROJECTThe Center continued

supportof the InternationalSecurity and ArmsControlProject (ISAAC) of the Stanford Pro-gram in International and Cross-Cultural Ed-ucation (SPICE). Center faculty, staff, andfellows work closely with ISAAC personnelto develop curriculum materials at the high-school level. The Center and ISAAC orga-nized a seminar, held in August at Stanfordfor twelve high-school teachers whowill field-test new materials. Centerfaculty and fellowsparticipated as lecturers and discussionleaders.

22

Peace and Cooperation in theAsian-Pacific RegionPROJECTS project members participated in bilateral con-

ferences with officials and scholars in Chinaand Japan. John Lewis, Coit Blacker, SidneyDrell, DavidHolloway,William Perry,RobertWard, and Lew Allen held aseries ofmeetingswith specialists from the Beijing Institute forInternational Strategic Studies (BUSS). Theymet also with China's ministers ofdefenseandelectronics; the vice ministers of foreign af-fairs and the State Commission for DefenseScience, Technology, and Industry; and thehead of the State Council's Foreign AffairsCommittee. In Tokyo, they met with officialsfrom the Foreign Ministry, Defense Agency,Defense Academy, and the Slavic ResearchCenterof Hokkaido University.

In July 1984, ISISlaunched a joint Center-Forum project to ex-aminepolicies that could reduce tensions andenhance cooperation and peaceful develop-ment in the Asian-Pacific region. The Peaceand Cooperation Project builds on relation-ships that havebeen developed over thepastdecadewith specialists from Chinaand Japan.Efforts arebeing made toexpand thedialoguetoinclude scholars from Korea and the SovietUnion.

During thefall monthsof 1984, a core group of ISIS members con-centrated on establishing research ap-proaches tofour topics : ( 1) definingaregionalframework for potential cooperative mea-sures in the Pacific region; (2) understandingbilateral relations, alliances, and their conse-quencesforregional peace; (3) understandingtherole of the Soviet Union in the security ofAsia; and (4) drafting specific proposals forcrisis reduction and prevention.

John Lewis also metthroughout the year with a group of Koreanscholars at Stanford and began research onalleviating tensions on theKorean Peninsula.

LewAllen andWilliamPerry meet ZhangAiping,

Minister ofDefense,People's Republic ofChina

StrategicDefense InitiativeThe Center published I

In September 1984,John Lewis and David Holloway visited theInstitute of Far Eastern Studies of the SovietAcademy of Sciences to discuss creation of aregular series of meetings on peace and coop-eration in the Asian-Pacificregion. AleksandrYakovlevof the Institute visited Galvez HouseinNovember to continue the discussions.Lewisand Hollowayreturned to the SovietUnion inMarch 1985 and again in December 1985 tocomplete arrangementsfor the meetings. Plansare in progress for a first set of meetingstobeheld at Stanford during the 1985-86 aca-demic year.

a Special Report in August 1984entitled TheReagan Strategic Defense Initiative: A Tech-nical, Political, and Arms Control Assess-ment,by Sidney D. Drell, Philip J. Farley, and

priority objectives and activities in strategic with a view to finding ways to prevent theirdefense. Sidney Drell first presented the work- recurrence. During 1984-85, George col-shop's recommendations to the press and to lected data on the 1973Middle Eastcrisis, themembers and friends of the Center at Galvez Korean War, and the 1971 crisis in Bangla-House on March 13. OnApril 22, he testified desh and consulted with scholars at universi-on the subject of strategic missile defense be- ties and institutes in the United States andfore the Defense Subcommittee of the Senate Soviet Union.

David Holloway. Thefall 1984issue of Inter-national Security (Vol. 9, No. 2) printed anabridged version. In the spring of 1985, theBallinger Publishing Companyreleased a newedition of the book with arevised preface bythe authors.

Appropriations Committee. Congressman Ed Alexander George andZschau distributed copies of thereport to all Alexander Dallin also initiated a project tomembers of the U.S. Congress. analyze past efforts of the United States andw^ m̂m m̂mmmmmmyiwmmiriimmmmm

Soviet Union to establish a security regimeTheCenterconvened a

workshop in October 1984 to continue thestudy of strategic defense. Under the chair-manship of Sidney Drell and Center memberThomas Johnson, the workshop examinednear-term prospects for and alternative ap-proaches to strategic defense. A Center Spe-cial Report, Strategic Missile Defense: Ne-cessities, Prospects, andDangers in the NearTerm represents the consensus of thirteenworkshop signatories on a limited set ofhigh-

Crisis Management andPrevention through negotiations and other forms of co-»l i r operation. Theproject is studying territorial

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25

24

and continuing processes of negotiation suchas talks on mutual and balanced force reduc-tions and the Standing ConsultativeCommission.

In June 1985, the Cen-ter released a Special Report, Inadvertent Warin Europe: Crisis Simulation. Thereport ana-lyzes the hypothetical U.S.-Soviet crisis inGermany conducted in the spring of 1984 aspart of the Center's seminar course on armscontrol. AlexanderGeorge supervised prepa-ration of the report; its three other authors,David Bernstein, GregoryParnell, and PhilipRogers,had participated in directingthecrisissimulation as Arms Control Fellows. The re-port discusses the historical and fictionalbackground to the crisis confrontation, theevents of the five crisis days,and the negotia-tions thatresulted ina deescalation agreement.

AccidentalNuclear War PreventionHerbertAbrams be-

ganhalf-timeresidence atthe Centerin 1984—85 upon his return from Harvard to assumetheposition of Professor of Radiology at theStanford School of Medicine. He began aproject on factors increasing the risk of nu-clear accidents, taking into account the non-rational elements of decision making. Hisanalysis of decision making under stress con-siders, for example, possibleresponses to per-ceived threats, terrorism, and faulty alertsand the psychological factors impinging onAmerican and Soviet command-and-controlsystems.

Elisabeth Pate-Cornellcontinued work during 1984-85 on a three-part project entitled "Warning Systems andReducing the Risks of Accidental NuclearWar." The initial monograph was publishedin the journal, Risk Analysis (Vol. 5, No. 2,1985). It focuses on the reliability of U.S.strategic command, control, communica-tions, and intelligence systems. Pate-Cornell

utilized a reliability analysis to compute forfour alternative strategic postures the proba-bility of what arereferred to as Type I errors(no response) and Type II errors (accidentalstrike). The second and third phases of theproject involve consequencemodeling and at-titudes toward risk of national-security anddefensedecision makers.

Soviet Military Doctrines andWeapons Capabilities

In response to the con-tinuing controversy in the United States overSoviet military intentions, theCenterinitiateda multiyear project in 1983 to investigate thecontent and direction of the Soviet Union'smilitary doctrines and weapons capabilitiesand how Soviet civilian and military leadersassess the relationship between their coun-try's military potential and its larger politicaland military goals. The project participants,under the leadership of Coit Blacker, met inMarch 1984 to review their work to date.They are completing chapters for a manu-script to be submitted to Stanford UniversityPress for publication in 1986 as part of theISIS Series onInternational Securityand ArmsControl.

U.S. JointChiefs ofStaff andSoviet GeneralStaff

A comparative study,under the direction of Condoleezza Rice, ex-plores the evolution and development of thecentral staff organs of the American and So-viet armed forces. During 1984-85,Rice be-gan research on the Soviet dimension of thework with construction of abiographical database to allow systematic examination of pat-terns of officer training and career changes

within the General Staff. There has been anabsenceof scholarly attention to the appara-tus for centralized military planning in theSoviet Union; however, abundant Sovietsources are available—memoirs, histories, andlargely untapped literature on methods ofplanning and staff officer training.

Verification ofArms Control AgreementsDuring 1984-85, the

Center participated, in cooperation with theAmerican Association for the Advancementof Science (AAAS), in the preparation of aprimer on the technology andprocess ofveri-fication of arms control agreements. Centermember Theodore Ralston coauthored thestudy, entitled The Verification Challenge;AAAS will publish it in November 1985. Sid-ney Drell, John Lewis, and William Perryserved on the eleven-member advisory com-mittee for the project.

The Center also con-tributed to a study, led by Jack Evernden, onseismic verification. The study deals with theuse of high-frequency components of anuclear-explosion-induced seismic signal todiscriminate nuclear explosions from earth-quakes. The U.S. GeologicalSurvey is direct-ingfurther study of the subject.

SovietNuclearWeapons ProgramSenior Research Asso-

ciate and Soviet specialist David Holloway(on leave from the University of Edinburgh)worked during 1984—85 on a book investi-gating the early Soviet nuclear weaponspro-gram. He visited Moscow and Leningrad inMarchtoconduct archival research and inter-view Soviet scientists who had participatedin the Soviet nuclear program during the1940s and 50s. He also conducted researchon Sovietstrategic defensepolicies.

Complying with Arms ControlAgreementsThe Center authorized

aprojectin 1985toinvestigate U.S. and Sovietpatterns of behavior with respect to compli-ance with arms control agreements. Centermember Gloria Duffy is leading the project,which involves an analysis of the compliancequestion, focusing in particular on the histor-ical record, the use and misuse oftheStandingConsultative Commission, the status underinternational law of such signed but unratifiedagreements as the SALT II treaty, and theimplications of past U.S. and Soviet behaviorfor the future of negotiated arms control.Meetings scheduled for the fall of 1985 willresult in apreliminary reportby year's end.

RESEARCH LIBRARYThe ISIS library at Gal-

vez House is a major resource for faculty,staff, fellows, and students. A library special-ist, Kristen Edwards, joined the staff in thespring of 1985 and began the effort to com-puterize the library's holdings and improvemonitoring of the increasingly specialized andvaluable collection. The library contains aboutsix hundred carefully selected volumes. Itsubscribes to overone hundred journals andreceives reports and papers from numerousinternational-affairs institutes.

Members of the Cen-

2627

ACTIVITIES ANDPUBLICATIONS OFCENTER MEMBERS

terdevote significant amounts of time topub-lic lectures, international conferences, andwriting on Center-related topics. The exam-ples provide a representative sample of theefforts made by some of the Stanford-basedmembers of the Center during 1984-85 tocontribute to understanding of arms controlandinternational security.

HerbertL. Abrams

Lectures on medical issues of nuclearwarto groups of physicians, business-men, and students.

Commentaries and discussions on radioand television.

"Medical Resources after Nuclear War:Availability versus Need," Journalofthe American Medical Association(August 3, 1984).

"Prescription for Survival: TheDoctor'sDilemma," Investigative Radiology(October 1985).

"Oppenheimerand the Radioactive Poi-son Plan," Technology Review (May-June 1985).

"Why We Didn't Use Poison Gas in WorldWar II," American Heritage (Au-gust-September 1985).

"Leo Szilard: The Unsung Father of theA-Bomb," Discover (August 1985).

"Radiological Warfare: The Path NotTaken," Bulletin of the Atomic Sci-entists (August 1985).

Guest appearances on radio and televi-sion programs and lectures to Stan-ford audiences and to groups and atuniversities including the World Af-fairs Council of San Francisco;American Association of UniversityWomen; League of Women Voters;University of California, Irvine; SantaClara University; and StanfordAlumni Association.

Member, Advisory Committee, andFounding Vice-President, Interna-tional Physicians for the Preventionof Nuclear War (1985 winner of theNobel Peace Prize).

National Co-Chairman, Physicians forSocial Responsibility.

Member, Institute of Medicine-NationalAcademy of Sciences Planning Com-mittee on Medical Implications ofNuclearWar.

"Sources of Human Instability in theHandling of Nuclear Weapons" and"Medical Supply and Demand in thePost-Nuclear-War World, with Ob-servations on the Impact on Devel-oping Nations," contributions to theInstitute of Medicine-NationalAcademy of Sciences Symposium onMedical Aspects of Nuclear War(September 1985) (also forthcomingas Proceedings of the National Acad-emy of Sciences and as a book fromWW. Norton and Co., NewYork).

David M. BernsteinLectures at Mills Collegeand the Univer-

sity of California, Davis; taught twocourses in arms control at CanadaCollege.

Interviews and debateson radio and tele-vision and presentations topublic in-terest groups including Physicians forSocial Responsibility, the AmericanAssociation of University Women, theLeague of Women Voters, and theJewish CommunityRelations Centerin San Francisco.

American editor, Arms Control: TheJournal ofArms Control and Disar-mament,London.

"The United States and the Soviet Union,"Current History (October 1984).

Reviewarticle onRichard Pipes, SurvivalIs Not Enough (New York: Simonand Schuster, 1984), Bulletin of theAtomic Scientists (April 1985).

"Ballistic Missile Defense," NationalAcademy of Sciences Issues in Sci-ence and Technology (Fall 1985).

Leader of a group ofAmericanphysiciansinvited to the Soviet Union to discusswith Soviet physicians and scientiststhe medical implications of nuclearwar (July 1985).

Inadvertent War in Europe: Crisis Simu-lation, with George, Parnell, andRogers (CenterSpecial Report, 1985).

Barton J.BernsteinLectures in the Soviet Union (at Moscow,

Leningrad, Tbilisis, and Kiev) on ac-cidental or inadvertent nuclear war,medical consequences of nuclear war,and problems of nuclear-warsurvivors.

Lectures onthe same topics at the Univer-sity of Wisconsin, Mount Sinai Col-lege of Medicine, Harvard Univer-sity, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, and Stanford University.

Lectures on nuclear weapons, the armsrace, World War 11,andrelated topicsat universities, conferences, and toalumni groups, among them the Uni-versity of California, San Diego; theUniversity of California, Santa Cruz;theCommand and GeneralStaff Col-lege, Leavenworth; Southern OregonState College; the Sloan Foundation;and the American HistoricalAssociation.

Member, Executive Committee, Confer-ence on Peace Research in History.

"Science and Society: The OppenheimerConspiracy," Discover (March 1985).

"The Bay of Pigs Invasion Revisited,"Foreign ServiceJournal (March 1985).

Coit D. BlackerInvited guest, Institute of the United States

and Canada, Soviet Academy of Sci-ences (September 1984).

Member, Stanford delegation to the Bei-jing Institute for International Stra-tegic Studies (October 1984).

Participant, conference, "Explicating theArms Control Debate," sponsoredbythe Center for Science and Interna-tional Affairs, Harvard University, andthe Harriman Institute, ColumbiaUniversity (December 1984).

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Participant, International ConferenceonSpace Weaponsand International Se-curity at theStockholm InternationalPeaceResearch Institute (July 1985).

Strategic Missile Defense: Necessities,Prospects, and Dangers in the NearTerm, report of a workshop co-chaired by Drell and Thomas John-son (Stanford: Center Special Re-port, 1985).

Alexander Dallin AlexanderL. GeorgeLectures on Sovietpolicy and U.S.-Soviet

relations attheUniversity of Nevada,Reno; University of Texas, Austin;World Affairs Council of NorthernCaliforia; and the annual conferenceof the Pacific Coast Branch, Ameri-can Historical Association.

Participant in conferences includingmeetingof U.S.-SovietCommittee onPrevention of International Crises,(Moscow, February 1985); meetingof the Study Group on InternationalLaw and the Use of Force, Councilon Foreign Relations (March 1985);Nobel Institute symposium, "TheStudyof War and Peace" (Oslo,June1985).

Presentations to groups including theLawyers Alliance for Nuclear ArmsControl (regional conference), Phy-sicians for Social Responsibility (an-nual meeting), American Institute ofArchitects (annual convention), andtheAmericanAssociation for theAd-vancement of Science (annual meet-ingand seminars for Congress mem-bers and staff and foreign sciencecounselors and attaches).

"Restrictions on Weapon Tests as Confi-dence-Building Measures," with T.Ralston, in Preventing Nuclear War:A Realistic Approach, edited by BarryBlechman (Bloomington: IndianaUniversity Press, 1985).

Member, Advisory Committee, Soviet andEast European Research and Train-ingAct, U.S. Department of State.

Black Box: KAL 007 and the Superpow-ers (Berkeley: University of Califor-nia Press, 1985).

Member, attending meetings, of the Sub-committee on International Rela-tions of the American Council ofLearned Societies, Commission onHumanities and Social Sciences, So-viet Academy of Sciences.

Philip J.FarleyMember, panel on "New Approaches to

Nonproliferation" at Ford-sup-ported U.S.-European-Japanese con-ference (November,December 1984).

"Some Lessons of the Past," in SharedDestiny: Fifty Years ofSoviet-Amer-ican Relations, edited by M. Garri-son and A. Gleason (Boston: BeaconPress, 1985).

Lectures at universities including the Uni-versity of Maryland; Santa ClaraUniversity; Johns Hopkins Univer-sity; University of California, LosAngeles and Berkeley; California StateUniversity, Sacramento; RockefellerUniversity; andColumbia University.

Member, attending first meeting, ofCom-mittee of the Contributions of theBehavioral and Social Sciences to thePrevention of NuclearWar, NationalAcademy of Sciences-National Re-search Council.

Presentation on structuring and negoti-ating arms control agreements, closedsession of the House Committee onForeignAffairs (April 1985).

"Domestic Roots of Soviet Foreign Pol-icy: Alternative Models andAssump-tions," in Soviet Policy in the ThirdWorld, edited by P. Schulze(forthcoming).

Lectures in London at the InternationalInstitute for Strategic Studies and theRoyal United Services Institute forDefence Studies.

Participant, Ditchley Foundation confer-ence on "The Practical and PoliticalImplications of Ballistic Missile De-fence Technology" (Great Britain,June 1985).

"Ideology and International Relations: AConceptual Analysis," paper pre-sented at conference, "Ideology andIts Influence on International Poli-tics," Hebrew University, Jerusalem(January 1985).

SidneyD. DrellMember, Stanford delegation to the Bei-

"Ballistic Missile Defense: The CaseAgainst," with Panofsky, in NationalAcademy of Sciences Issues in Sci-enceand Technology(Fall 1984).

Presentations on arms control to the Sac-ramento chapter and a regional con-ference of the Lawyers Alliance forNuclear Arms Control; the WorldAffairs Conference, Portland, Ore-gon; and the annual convention ofthe American Institute of Architects,San Francisco.

jing Institute for International Stra-tegic Studies (October 1984).

"U.S.-Soviet Global Rivalry: Norms ofCompetition," paper presented atThirteenth World Congress, Interna-tional Political Science Association,Paris (July 1985).

Testimony onthe StrategicDefenseInitia-tive before the Defense Subcommit-tee of the Senate AppropriationsCommittee (April 1985).

"Preserving theABM Treaty: A Critiqueof the Reagan Strategic Defense Ini-tiative," with Farley and Holloway,International Security (Fall 1984).

Participant, Ditchley Foundation confer-ence on "The Practical and PoliticalImplications of Ballistic Missile Def-enceTechnology" (Great Britain, June1985).

"Andrei Sakharov: The Scientist's Di-lemma," Stanford Magazine (Winter1984).

"Crisis Management: The Interaction ofPolitical and Military Considera-tions," Survival (September—Octo-ber 1984).

"Preserving theABM Treaty: A Critiqueof the Reagan Strategic Defense Ini-tiative," with Drell and Holloway,International Security (Fall 1984).

The Reagan Strategic Defense Initiative:A Technical, Political, and ArmsControlAssessment, with Farley andHolloway (Ballinger Publishing Co.,1985).

Inadvertent War in Europe: Crisis Simu-lation, with Bernstein, Parnell, andRogers (Center SpecialReport, 1985).

The Reagan Strategic Defense Initiative:A Technical, Political, and ArmsControl Assessment, with Drell andHolloway (Ballinger Publishing Co.,1985).

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"Soviet Policy and the Arms Race," inThe Choice: Nuclear Weapons ver-sus Security, edited by Gwyn Prins(London: Chatto andWindus, 1984).

as Proceedings of the National Acad-emy of Sciences and as a book from

Wolfgang K. H. PanofskyDavid HollowayMeetings in Moscow with officials of the

Institute of Far EasternStudies of theSovietAcademy of Sciences (Septem-ber 1984and March 1985).

Member, invited working group on"Weaponization of Space," spon-soredby the Vatican (January 1984).

Chairman, National Academy of Sci-

WW. Norton and Co., New York)."NuclearWinter: Strategic Significance,"

National Academy ofSciences Issuesin Science and Technology (Winter1985).

"Preserving theABM Treaty: A Critiqueof the Reagan Strategic Defense Ini-tiative," with Drell and Farley, Inter-nationalSecurity (Fall 1984).

ences Committee on InternationalSecurityand Arms Control.

Member, Stanford delegation to the Bei-jing Institute for International Stra-tegic Studies (October 1984). "Strategic Confusion—with or without

Nuclear Winter," Bulletin of theAtomic Scientists (February 1985).

Lectures on arms control to groups in-cluding Optimists Clubs, RotaryClubs, church organizations.

The Reagan StrategicDefense Initiative:A Technical, Political, and ArmsControl Assessment, with Drell andFarley (Boston: Ballinger PublishingCo., 1985).

"TheStrategic Defense Initiative and theSoviet Union," Daedalus (Summer1985).

"Lessons of the Arms Race," Bulletin oftheAtomic Scientists (August 1985).

"Ballistic Missile Defense: The CaseAgainst," with Drell, in NationalAcademy of Sciences Issues in Sci-enceand Technology (Fall 1984).

"TheStrategicDefense Initiative: Percep-tion versus Reality," Physics Today(June 1985).

CondoleezzaRice"Political-Military Affairs in the Soviet

Union," address to the British Na-tionalAssociation for Sovietand EastEuropean Studies (March 1985).

Participant, Office ofTechnology Assess-ment workshop on "TheSoviet Unionand Ballistic Missile Defense" (De-cember 1984).

"The Implications of Trident for Stabil-ity," Oceanus (Summer 1985).

Participant, workshop on "Crisis Stabil-ity and StrategicCommand and Con-trol" sponsored by the AmericanAcademy of Arts and Sciences andthe Peace Studies Program atCornell University (August 1985). "The Soviet Union and Arms Control,"

seminar at the International Institutefor Strategic Studies,London (March1985).

Testimony before the Senate Foreign Re-lations Committee on the subject oftheWarsaw Pact (September 1985).

TheodoreA. PostolJohn W. Lewis "Possible Military and Strategic Implica-

tions of Nuclear Winter," testimonybefore the House Committee on Sci-ence and Technology (September1984).

Meetings in Moscow with officials of theInstitute ofFar EasternStudies of theSoviet Academy of Sciences (Septem-ber 1984 and March 1985).

Lectures and paperson armscontrol andSoviet policy at the annual confer-ences of the American Associationfor the Advancement of Science andtheAmericanAssociation for theAd-vancement of Slavic Studies; at theInstituteof Far Eastern Studies,Mos-cow; and at Columbia,Harvard, Tu-lane, and Indiana Universities and theUniversities of Maryland and Cali-fornia (Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, andSanta Cruz).

"The Soviet Union under New Leader-ship," address to the World AffairsCouncil (1985).Leader, Stanford delegation to China for

meetings with officials of the BeijingInstitute for International StrategicStudies, Institute of American Stud-ies, and Institute of InternationalStudies andto Japanfor meetings withofficials from various governmentalministries (October 1984).

Lectures on national policy and militaryplanning at institutions including theRand Corporation, Argonne Na-tional Laboratory, the Naval Post-graduate School, and the UniversityofMaryland.

Hoover National Fellow for 1985-86.International Affairs Fellow ofthe Coun-

cil of Foreign Relations for 1986—87.Member, Social Science Research Coun-

cil MacArthur Fellowship AwardsCommittee.Lectures at Stanford University to the

Center's course on arms control anddisarmament, the physics course onweapons effects, and the medicalschool's course on thephysician's rolein the nuclear age.

Member, Council on Foreign RelationsTermMembership Committee.Presentation to the annual convention of

the American Institute of Architects,San Francisco (June 1985).

The Soviet Union and the CzechoslovakArmy: Uncertain Allegiance (Prince-ton:Princeton UniversityPress, 1984).

De Sovjetunie En De Bewapeningswed-loop (Amsterdam: Jan Mets, 1984)and L'Unione Sovietica E La CorsaAgli Armamenti (Bologna: II Mu-lino, 1984), foreign editions of TheSoviet Union and theArms Race.

Participant, meeting of the Committee onInternational Security and ArmsControl of the National Academy ofSciences (July 1985).

"The Revolution in Military Affairs andSoviet Defense Policy," in Technol-ogy in the Soviet Union, edited byGoodman (conference volume, Stan-ford, 1985).

Adviser (unpaid) to the Office of the Chiefof Naval Operations.

"Physical Effects of Modern NuclearWeapons: Implications for Estimat-ing Casualties," contribution to theInstitute of Medicine-NationalAcademy of Sciences Symposium onMedical Aspects of Nuclear War(September 1985) (also forthcoming

Speaker-in-residence, Stanford SierraCamp (August 1985).

Member, Sierra Club Committee on Warand theEnvironment.

"The Makers of Soviet Strategy," in TheMakers of Modern Strategy, editedby Craig and Paret (Princeton:Princeton University Press, forth-coming).

32

33

Sidney D. Drell, Philip J. Farley, and DavidHolloway. The Reagan StrategicDe-fense Initiative: A Technical, Politi-cal, and Arms Control Assessment.Cambridge: Ballinger PublishingCompany, 1985.

Listed arethenamesof Roger George, 1977-79. Central Intelli-gence Agency.Special Reports FORMER VISITING

FELLOWSformer visitingfellows inresidence with Stan-ford's arms control program between 1970and 1984 and their most recent titles andaffiliations.

CENTER PUBLICATIONSComprehensive Security: Japanese and

U.S. Perspectives. 1981 (summaryonly available).

Alexander L. George, David M. Bern-

Guo Maogong, 1983-84. Counselor,Embassy of thePeople's Republic ofChina, Washington, D.C.

Shigeru Aoyama, 1982. Colonel, Japa-neseGround Self-DefenseForces.

Eric Hanson, 1983-84, 1985. AssociateProfessor of Political Science, SantaClara University.

stein, GregoryS. Parnell, and J.Philip Ryukichi Imai and Henry S. Rowen. Nu-clear Energy and Nuclear Prolifera-tion: Japaneseand American Views.Boulder: Westview Press, 1980.

Rogers. Inadvertent War in Europe:CrisisSimulation. 1985. Lee Randolph Bean, 1982. Independent

producer. Avigdor Haselkorn, 1974-75. SeniorAnalyst, Analytical AssessmentsCenter,Eaton Corporation.

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces inEurope: IssuesandApproaches. 1982.

John W. Lewis and Coit D. Blacker, edi-tors. NextSteps in the Creation ofan

David Bernstein, 1983-84. Consultant,Center.Franklin B. Weinstein, editor. U.S.-Japan

Relations and the Security of EastAsia: The Next Decade. Boulder:Westview Press, 1978.

Coit Blacker, 1977-78. Associate Direc-tor, Center.

FrankHawke, 1976-77.Manager, Chinaoffice, Unison International,Beijing.

Richard Higginbotham, 1977-81. Fac-Accidental Nuclear War PreventionCenter. 1983. Joseph Bouchard, 1981-83. Lieutenant

Commander, U.S. Navy.Christopher Braithwaite, 1984-85. Pub-

Franklin B. Weinstein and Fuji Kamiya,editors. The Security ofKorea: U.S.and Japanese Perspectives on the1980s.Boulder: WestviewPress, 1980.

ultymember, ModestoJuniorCollege.The Security Challenge in Northeast Asia:Reportofa Conference. 1982. Jirou Hirao, 1984. Colonel, Japanese

GroundSelf-DefenseForces.lisher, Barton, Vermont, Chronicle.Hans Gunter Brauch, 1978. Faculty

member, Heidelberg University,Strategic Missile Defense: Necessities,

Prospects, and Dangers in the NearTerm. 1985.

Hua Di, 1980-82. Research Fellow, In-stitute of American Studies, ChineseAcademy of Social Sciences.Germany.

Dan Caldwell, 1975-78. Associate Pro-fessor, Pepperdine University.

Farooq Hussain, 1979-80. SHAPE Tech-nical Center, The Hague.Available from Publishers

John H. Barton and Ryukichi Imai, edi-tors. Arms Control II: A New Ap-proach to International Security.Cambridge: Oelgeschlager,Gunn, andHain,l9Bl.

Syed Rifaat Hussain, 1982-83. Univer-sity teacher, Pakistan.

Mark Cioc, 1983-84. Acting Instructor,Department of History, UniversityofCalifornia, Berkeley. Jiang Zhenghao, 1984-85.Associate Fel-

low, Institute of American Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing.

Regina Cowen, 1984-85. Fellow, Insti-tute for East-West Security Studies,NewYork.Coit D. Blacker. The Future of Nuclear

Arms Control. NewYork: Aspen In-stitute for Humanistic Studies, 1980. Jack Kangas, 1977. Analytic Sciences

Corporation, Arlington, Virginia.Shin'ichi Kamata, 1983-84. Assistant

Stephen David, 1974-75. Faculty mem-ber, Johns Hopkins University.Coit D. Blacker and Gloria Duffy, edi-

tors. International Arms Control:Issues and Agreements. Second edi-tion. Stanford: Stanford UniversityPress, 1984.

Gloria Duffy, 1980-82. President, GlobalOutlook, Inc. Professor of Organizational Behav-

ior and Research Methods, NationalDefense Academy, Japan.

John Ernest, 1984-85. Professor ofMathematics, University of Califor-nia, Santa Barbara.

Matthew Evangelista, 1984-85. Fellow,Brookings Institution, Washington,D.C.

Shai Feldman, 1981-82.Senior ResearchAssociate, Jaffee Centerfor StrategicStudies,Tel Aviv University.

Forrest Frank, 1970-71, 1972-73, 1975.Independentconsultant.

JohnL. Gawf, 1983. InternationalAffairsAdviser, ArmedForces StaffCollege,Norfolk, Virginia.

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34

Hiroshi Kimura, 1982-83. Professor ofPolitical Science and Director, SlavicResearch Center, Hokkaido Univer-sity, Japan.

Christine Kolmar, 1981-82. Corre-spondent, German television, Berlin.

Shigekatsu Kondo, 1982. Professor, Na-tional Defense College, Japan.

Kurt J. Lauk, 1973-74, 1976-77.Repre-sentative,Boston Consulting Group.

Ariel Levite, 1982-83. Senior ResearchAssociate, Jaffee Centerfor StrategicStudies, Tel AvivUniversity.

BenjaminMiller, 1983-84. Central Intel-ligenceAgency.

Alden F. Mullins, Jr., 1984-85. Directorof the Country Assessments Group,Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory.

Yoshihisa Nakamura, 1979-81. Colo-nel, Japanese Ground Self-DefenseForces; Associate Professor, Na-tional Defense Academy, Japan.

Masashi Nishihara, 1982. Professor ofSocial Sciences, National DefenseAcademy, Japan.

J. Oakey Noell, 1982-83. Researchchemist, MilesLaboratories.

Janne E. Nolan, 1980-81. Senior Legis-lativeAssistant,Office of SenatorGaryHart.

Takeo Ohashi,1981. Major General,Jap-anese GroundSelf-Defense Forces.

Daniel I. Okimoto, 1975-76. AssociateProfessor of Political Science, Stan-ford; Co-Director,Forum.

Seiichiro Onishi, 1984. Executive Direc-tor, Research Institute for Peace andSecurity, Japan.

Gregory Parnell, 1984-85. AssistantProfessor of Operations Research, AirForce Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.

Alan Piatt, 1975-76. Rand Corporation.Theodore A. Postol, 1984-85. Senior

Research Associate,Center.William Potter, 1976-77. Assistant Di-

rector, Center for Strategic and In-ternational Affairs, University ofCalifornia,Los Angeles.

Ronald Purver, 1976-79. CanadianCen-ter for Arms Control and Disarma-ment, Ottawa.

Bennett Ramberg, 1974-75. ResearchFellow, Center for Strategic and In-ternational Affairs, University ofCalifornia, Los Angeles.

Edward Rhodes, 1984-85. Fellow, Cen-ter for Science and InternationalAffairs, HarvardUniversity.

Condoleezza Rice, 1980-82. AssistantProfessor of Political Science, Stan-ford; Assistant Director, Center.

Cynthia Roberts, 1980-82. ResearchFellow, Averell Harriman Institute,Columbia University.

J.Philip Rogers, 1983-84.Fellow, Centerfor Science and International Affairs,Harvard University.

Hans-Joachim Schutz, 1977-78. Re-search Associate, Institute for Inter-national Law, Kiel University,Germany.

George Smith, 1984-85. Scientific Ana-lyst, Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory.

RamR. Subramanian, 1974-75. Institutefor Defense Studies Analyses, NewDelhi.

Yoshikatsu Suzuki, 1983. Colonel, Japa-nese Ground Self-Defense Forces.

Hideshi Takesada, 1984. Professor, Na-tional Defense College, Japan.

Seiichiro Takagi, 1973-74, 1976-77.Associate Professor ofPolicy Science,Saitama University, Japan.

James Timbie, 1970-71. Adviser to theDeputySecretaryfor StrategicPolicy,Department ofState.

Gerald Warburg, 1978-79. LegislativeAssistant, Office of Senator AlanCranston.

Taishi Yoshinari, 1983-84. Manager,News Division, Overseas Broadcast-ing Department, Japan BroadcastingCorporation (NHK).

Kent Wisner, 1980. Student, Universityof Virginia School of Law.

WuZhan, 1982-83.Deputy Director, In-stitute of American Studies, ChineseAcademy ofSocial Sciences.

Xia Daosheng, 1981-82. Counselor forPolitical Affairs, Embassy of thePeo-ple's Republic ofChina, Ottawa.

YeRu'an, 1982-83. Deputy Head, Divi-sion of World Politics, and Director,Arms Control Studies, Institute of In-ternational Studies,China.

Eliahu Zeira, 1977-78. Independentconsultant, Israel.

Zhou Van, 1981-82. Institute of Ameri-can Studies, Beijing.

36

The excitementat Galvez Housestemsfrom theremarkable mixof itsinhabitants.Nuclearwar is a terrible prospect—so terriblethat itcandistractpeople from careers thatwould otherwisebefully satisfying. Suchpeople havecome togetheratthe Center,andcollectively they defeat theimpulse toward specialization that dominatesmost academic disciplines.

ChristopherBraithwaite,Arms Control Fellow in journalism.in anarticle for theStanford ObserverandCampusReport, 1985

Avoiding nuclearwar is a moral obligationwe allhave. Self-appointedscientist-experts cannot wagethatbattle alone.Youstudentsalso havetocontribute to thedebate.There is no consensus of expertsto shutyouout, tointimidateyou.Whatcan one person do?Let me assureyou, whenthere is asustained, informed,responsible public constituency, itdoesmakea difference.

SidneyDrell,lecturingto Stanford studentsenrolled inthecourse.

"ArmsControl andDisarmament," 1985