Defense and Arms Control Studies Program Center for

DEFENSE AND ARMS CONTROL STUDIES

PROGRAM

ANNUAL REPORT

ACADEMIC YEAR 1986-1987

Defense and Arms Control Studies Program

Center for International StudiesMASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

DECEMBER 1987

DEFENSE AND ARMS CONTROL STUDIES

PROGRAM

ANNUAL REPORT

ACADEMIC YEAR 1986-1987

CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIESMASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

MIT Defense and Arms Control Studies ProgramAnnual Report, 1986-87

DIRECTOR'S OVERVIEW

The Defense and Arms Control Program continues toreflect MIT's priorities in education, research and publicservice. Our primary raison d'etre is the education ofgraduate students. The program serves faculty and studentsas a locus for research and analysis of relevant technical,strategic, and political aspects of vital national andinternational security questions. Our public serviceoutreach activities provide analyses for policy makers,educators, journalists, and the general public who want toparticipate in the political process affecting nationalsecurity.

In the past year, the technical potential and strategicrole of nuclear defense systems again occupied center stagenationally and internationally. Quite naturally, thenational interest in SDI has been reflected in the activitiesof the DACS program. We believe such close attention iswarranted since the controversy and debate about strategicdefense involves fundamental national policy issues andperceptions of the dynamics of US and Soviet strategicprograms.

The Defense and Arms Control Studies Program has alsobeen affected by glasnost, which has increased the level ofcandor that we find in our discussions with Soviet defensespecialists. In time, this may provide US analysts,including our own Soviet Security Studies group, with newinsights into Soviet thinking and activities in the defensearea. Although significant studies have been done usingcurrently available data, the prospect of improvedinformation from the Soviet Union is exciting.

If indeed an INF agreement is ratified and we see thetotal elimination of a class of nuclear weapons, then theconventional military balance in Europe and the possibilityfor negotiated limits on conventional weapons become muchmore important subjects for study and analysis. Themilitary, political, and economic issues involved here arefar more complex than those involved in the nuclear balance.We are fortunate to have Prof. Barry Posen, who isparticularly interested in conventional weapons issues, as anew member of our tenured faculty. He will be teaching inthis area at MIT starting with the 1987-88 academic year, andwill also continue his research on conventional forcemodelling.


I am pleased with the work accomplished by the facultymembers and staff of the program in this past year. We alsohave the benefit of excellent graduate students who, we areconfident, will make significant contributions to the fieldof defense and arms control.

Finally, the support of the Carnegie Corporation, theHewlett Foundation, and the Ford Foundation has beenessential for our current work. We continue, however, toseek stable, long-term funding to facilitate planning fordoctoral student and faculty research.

JACK RUINAProfessor of Electrical EngineeringDirector, Defense and Arms Control

Studies Program

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ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT

The Defense and Arms Control Studies Program is part ofthe MIT Center for International Studies, a research centerin the School of Humanities and Social Sciences. Its corefunding in fiscal year 1986-87 was provided by MIT, theCarnegie Corporation of New York, the William and FloraHewlett Foundation, and the Ford Foundation. Specificprojects were funded by the Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., Foundation,and the Department of Defense.

ASSOCIATED FACULTY AND STAFF (November 1987)

Faculty

William E. Griffith, Professor of Political Science.Stephen M. Meyer, Associate Professor of Political Science.Marvin M. Miller, Senior Research Scientist, Ctr for Inter-

national Studies and Department of Nuclear Engineering.Steven E. Miller, Lecturer in Political Science.Barry R. Posen, Associate Professor of Political Science.

(On leave, 1986-1987.)George W. Rathjens, Professor of Political Science.Jack Ruina, Professor of Electrical Engineeringand Director, Defense and Arms Control Studies Program.Harvey Sapolsky, Professor of Public Policy and

Organization.Eugene Skolnikoff, Professor of Political Science

and Director, MIT Center for International Studies.

Research Staff

William Durch, Research AssociateLynn Eden, Visiting ScholarCharles Glaser, Research AssociateHerbert Lin, Post-doctoral FellowEdward Linenthal, Visiting ScholarChristopher Paine, Visiting ScholarDon Rakestraw, Colonel, U.S. Air Force Research AssociateMarc Trachtenberg, Visiting Scholar

Administrative and Sunnort Staff

Amelia Leiss, Assistant Director, Center for InternationalStudiesFrances Stefan Scanlon, Research AdministratorPatricia Allaire, Administrative AssistantNatalie Weinberger, Administrative Assistant

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RESEARCH PROGRAM

Collaborative Research

The Navy and Nuclear WarCharles Glaser and Steven Miller continued to coordinate

the work of several expert contributors to this pathbreakingstudy of the history, doctrine and operation of naval nuclearweapons. Work in progress covers the origins and evolutionof the nuclear Navy; U.S. and Soviet naval missions andcapabilities; evaluations of conventional naval operations(including offensive and defensive sea control, strategicASW, and power projection) in the context of a superpowerwar; the risks of nuclear escalation growing out of suchoperations; assessments of the role of nuclear weapons inaccomplishing certain naval missions; and the implications oflimited nuclear weapons use for wartime naval missions. Thestudy is scheduled for completion in early 1988 and has beenaccepted for publication by Cornell University Press.

Soviet Security Studies Workina GroupThe working group is a research project directed by

Professor Meyer and staffed by post-doctoral and graduateresearch associates. Its principal focus is the study ofSoviet military and arms control policies, with particularattention devoted to such topics as: defense decision making,force planning and analysis, threat forecasting and analysis,military technology programs, and military economics. TheWorking Group meets weekly to discuss ongoing work. Itmaintains an extensive collection of original Soviet sourcematerials. This year, under contract to the Office of NetAssessment in the Department f Defense, the working groupanalyzed Soviet assessments of the military balance (or"correlation of forces") and the NATO alliance, and therelationship between Soviet military assessments and Sovietmilitary doctrine.

Small Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (SICBM) StudyProfessor Ruina and Scott Berg continued their invest-

igation of the technical, economic, and strategic implica-tions of the SICBM, popularly known as "Midgetman," with thewriting of the final project report. Midgetman presents newcommand, control and communications problems for the U.S. AirForce. Providing security for hundreds of nuclear warheads,on mobile launchers dispersed over thousands of square miles,will be a challenge. The system will be the costlieststrategic system, per operational warhead, ever developed bythe United States. That anticipated cost led to pressure for

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multiple warheads ("MIRVs"), which would increase its weightand restrict its mobility. The missile's twin attractions,however, have been its mobility (which would reduce itsvulnerability to attack) and its single warhead (which somesee as a step toward desirable "deMIRVing" of strategicarsenals). Decisions on size, payload, and basing moderemain to be made, but it is precisely these characteristicswhich would make this weapon the most expensive strategicsystem, per warhead, in the U.S. inventory. Most importantit is not clear that this sytem will ever be produced fordeployment.

Individual Research Activities

William Durch continued research on the desirability andfeasibility of continued restraints on U.S. and Sovietmissile defense programs. An Adelphi paper and a book onthat subject neared completion.

Charles Glaser worked on a book about nuclear weaponstheory and policy and on issues related to the concept of a"transition" from an offense-dominant to a defense-dominantstrategic posture. He co-chaired the project on the Navy andNuclear War.

Herbert Lin completed his analysis of the softwarerequirements of strategic defense; authored a lengthy studyof technical problems facing the ABM Treaty; and completedwork on the impact of new technologies on strategic nuclearcommand, control and communications. Dr. Lin began work on atechnical assessment of verification issues relating tonuclear sea-launched cruise missiles; and on the theaterland-attack capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

Stephen Meyer completed research on possible Sovietresponses to the American Strategic Defense Initiative, andalso completed a study of Soviet nuclear operations andcommand and control for inclusion in a book on the managementof nuclear operations. He continued research on his own bookon defense economics in the USSR.

Steven Miller continued his work on political con-straints on the pursuit and achievement of arms controlagreements. He edited a book on conventional forces, andwrote on the relationship of arms control and strategicdefense, and on security issues pertaining to NATO's northernflank.

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George Rathjens completed a study of the StrategicDefense Initiative and arms control, and continued work onthe nature and utility of deterrence theory, and on theavoidance of nuclear war.

Jack Ruina wrote and spoke widely on strategic defensesystems and the technologies of arms control verification.

Harvey Sacolskv completed a study of defense procurementpolicy, and worked on a history of the Office of NavalResearch, and a comparison of U.S. government procurementpolicies in the defense and health fields.

Don Rakestraw completed a study of U.S. dependency onforeign sources of strategic minerals.

Graduate Student Research Interests

Peter Almquist

Jorg Baldauf

Scott Berg

John BrownMarco CarnovaleJeffrey CheckelDean ChengOwen CoteNeta CrawfordIvo DaalderWilliam DurchJohn Fenske

Brian Finn

Sybil Francis

Catherine GirrierThomas Graham

Thomas Homer-DixonHeinz Kern

Policy Influence of Soviet MilitaryIndustryMilitary Decision-Making in the UnitedStates and the Federal Republic ofGermanyTechnology and Strategic Implications ofthe Small Intercontinental BallisticMissileConflict and Cooperation in NATONATO Nuclear Command and ControlSoviet Foreign Policy Decision MakingNortheast Asian Security IssuesNuclear War at SeaSoviet Tactical Air TechnologyWestern Europe and SDIThe ABM Treaty and Western SecurityEuropean Security and Domestic Politicsin France, 1974-1984Soviet Use of Mathematical ModellingTechniques in Military PlanningThe U.S. Congress and Control of SpaceWeaponsNo First Use of Nuclear WeaponsPublic Opinion, Government Policy, andArms ControlCausality in Social ScienceComparing Alternative Defense Conceptsfor Central Europe

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Shannon Kile

John Lepingwell

Peter Liberman1980sKatherine Magraw

James W. Moore

Kimberly Nolan

Kevin OliveauMatthew PartanLaura ReedEugene RumerJeffrey SandsDaniel Shepard

Ronald SiegelJeffrey Starr

Jonathan TuckerRobert Zirkle

Deqrees Completed,

NATO Northern Flank Maritime Policy andOperationsEvolution of Soviet Strategic AirDefenseNew Arms Control Initiatives for the

Assessing the Nuclear Test Ban Debate,1958-1963Defense of the North Atlantic Sea Linesof CommunicationU.S. Assessments of the Military Balancein EuropeComputer Modelling of Security IssuesSoviet Strategic Defense Sensor ProgramsNuclear Weapons-Free Zone IssuesSoviet Military HistorySoviet Strategic Defense ForcesEvolution of Soviet Ground ForcesStrategy, 1967-1987Modelling Conventional Land WarfareCommand and Control of Tactical NuclearWeaponsAntisubmarine Warfare IssuesNATO Command and Control

Academic Year 1986-87

Peter Almquist Ph.D., June 1987

"The Organization and Influence ofSoviet Military Industry, 1965-1982."

Jorg Baldauf PhD., June 1987

"Implementing a Flexible Response: TheU.S., Germany, and NATO's ConventionalForces."

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SEMINARS

DACS Visitors Seminars

2 October 1986

30 October 1986

17 December 1986

14 January 1987

12 February 1987

19 February 1987

5 March 1987

12 March 1987

18 March 1987

2 April 1987

Prof. Marvin Miller, MIT, Center forInternational Studies and Department ofNuclear Engineering, "U.S. Nuclear Non-proliferation Policy."

Prof. Edward Linenthal, Department ofReligious Studies and American Culture,University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, "PoliticalRevivalism and the Nuclear Age: the Worldsof the Committee on the Present Danger andthe Physicians for Social Responsibility."

James DeMontmollin, Sandia National Labor-atory, "International Atomic Energy AgencySafeguards and U.S.-Soviet Arms Control."

Prof. Edward Linenthal, "Changing Symbolismof War in American Society."

Col. Don Rakestraw, USAF Research Associate,"Fighter Pilots: Vietnam and Europe."

Prof. Marc Trachtenberg, Department ofHistory, University of Pennsylvania, "MakingSense of the Nuclear Age: Assessing theValue of Historical Analysis."

Dr. Johann Galtung, Visiting Fellow, Centerof International Relations, PrincetonUniversity, "Alternative Security Policiesin Europe."

Vann Van Diepen, Analyst, Bureau of Intel-ligence and Research, Department of State,"The Intelligence Process: The View fromFoggy Bottom."

Robert Zalisk, producer of, "SDI: The Tech-nical Challenge."

Prof. David Alan Rosenberg, Strategy Depart-ment, U.S. Naval War College, "The Limits ofMaritime Strategy: Prospects for U.S. NavalPower Since 1945."

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9 April 1987

22 April 1987

30 April 1987

7 May 1987

14 May 1987

19 May 1987

Robert Nurick, Associate Director, RAND-UCLACenter for the Study of Soviet InternationalBehavior, "Soviet Responses to EmergingTechnology."

Edward Linenthal, "Symbolic Defense: SDI andAmerican Political Culture."

Randall Forsberg, Director, Institute forDefense and Disarmament Studies, "ArmsControl versus Alternative Defense."

"Continuity and Change in the Soviet UnionUnder Gorbachev," a panel chaired by Prof.Stephen Meyer and including Prof. LorenGraham, MIT Program in Science, Technologyand Society; Prof. Philip Hanson, Universityof Birmingham, England; and Dr. ElizabethTeague, Radio Liberty, Munich, West Germany.

Robert Perry, Senior Staff, RAND Corpora-tion, "What is Wrong with Current Acquisi-tion Reform?"

Dr. Stephen Flanagan, Executive Director,Center for Science and InternationalAffairs, Harvard University, "NATO NuclearDoctrine and Arms Control."

DACS/CSIA Defense Technology and Policy Working Group

14 October 1986 Mr. Scott Berg, DACS Graduate ResearchAssistant, "Status of the Small Intercon-tinental Ballistic Missile."

Dr. Stephen Fetter, Post-Doctoral Fellow,Harvard CSIA, "Issues Related to a Com-prehensive Test Ban Treaty."

18 November 1986

25 November 1986

Dr. Benoit Morel, Science Fellow, Center forInternational Security and Arms Control,Stanford University, "An Analysis of Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile Systems."

Maj. David Glasgow, Air Force SystemsCommand, "Future Technologies in the AirForce: Project Forecast."

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9 December 1986

10 February 1987

24 February 1987

10 March 1987

7 April 1987

14 April 1987

28 April 1987

Dr. Theodore Taylor, "Third GenerationNuclear Weapons."

Dr. Arthur Charo, Post-Doctoral Fellow,Harvard CSIA, "U.S. Air Defense Programs."

Mr. John W.R. Lepingwell, DACS GraduateResearch Assistant, "Soviet Air DefensePrograms."

Dr. Robert Selden, Head, National SecuritySection, Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Dr. Marvin Miller, MIT Department of NuclearEngineering and CIS, "IAEA Safeguards: PastPractice and Future Applications"

Dr. Richard Garwin, IBM, "Topics in DefenseTechnology."

Prof. Ashton Carter, Harvard CSIA, Prof.Jack Ruina, MIT, Dr. Stephen Weiner, MITLincoln Laboratory, "A General Discussion ofBallistic Missile Defense Technology."

Lt. Col. Thomas Johnson, Director,Scientific Research Laboratory, West Point,"Recent Developments in MilitaryTechnology."

MIT/Harvard Defense Technoloay/Defense Policy and ArmsControl Dinner Seminar Series

;28 October 1986 Prof. Thomas Jordan, MIT Department of Earthand Planetary Sciences, "The Current Statusof Verification and Nuclear TestLimitations."

1 December 1986 Prof. John Deutsch, MIT Provost, "CurrentIssues in Chemical Warfare."

2 March 1987

6 April 1987

Prof. George Carrier, Harvard University,Division of Applied Sciences, "What's New inNuclear Winter?"

Hon. James Schlesinger, former U.S.Secretary of Defense (1973-75), "Deterrence,U.S. Nuclear Strategy, and SDI."

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MIT MacArthur Foundation Grantees Seminars

17 February 1987

3 March 1987

10 March 1987

17 March 1987

31 March 1987

7 April 1987

14 April 1987

Prof. Hayward Alker, Department of PoliticalScience, "The Dialectical Logic ofThucydides' Melian Dialogue."

Prof. Thomas Sheridan, Department ofMechanical Engineering, "Experiments onHuman Foibles in Command and Control."

Prof. Philip Khoury, Department of History,"Perspectives on the Impact of World War Twoon Egypt and Turkey and the Impact of theLebanon War on Lebanese Politics, Economyand Society."

Prof. Jean Louis, Department of Aeronauticsand Astronautics, "Approaches to Curbing theArms Race in Space."

Prof. Lawrence Susskind, Department of UrbanStudies and Planning, "Designing an Interna-tional Mediation Service."

Prof. Eric Chivian, Medical Department, "AnInternational Survey of Teenagers' AttitudesAbout the Future."

Prof. Harvey Sapolsky, Department ofPolitical Science, "The Political/HistoricalOrigins of SDI."

DACS Research Seminars

3 October 1986 Thomas Homer-Dixon and Roger Karapin,"Following Political Debates: A New Approachto the Window of Vulnerability Controversy."

26 February 1987 Scott Berg, "Midgetman: The Players, Deter-rence, and Arms Control."

17 March 1987

23 April 1987

Eugene Rumer, "Soviet Response to Threat inthe Theater."

Charles Glaser and Steven Miller, "The Navyand Nuclear War."

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CONFERENCES

MIT/HARVARD Summer Program on Nuclear Weapons and ArmsControl

For the fifth consecutive summer, the Defense andArms Control Studies Program, in cooperation with the Centerfor Science and International Affairs at Harvard Universityand with the sponsorship of the Alfred P. Sloan, Jr.,Foundation, hosted fifty college faculty from the UnitedStates and Western Europe who teach courses on nuclearweapons and arms control issues. An intensive, two-weekresident program, it is designed to give participants a firmgrounding in the technical aspects of nuclear arms controlissues, plus an opportunity to meet and get to know theirpeers. Participants come from a wide range of backgrounds,from the humanities to the natural sciences. The lecturerswere primarily from the faculty and staff of MIT's Defenseand Arms Control Studies Program and Harvard's Kennedy Schoolof Government.

Other lecturers included Prof. Robert Art, BrandeisUniversity; Prof. McGeorge Bundy, New York University; Prof.Robert Ehrlich, George Mason University; Ms. RandallForsberg, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies; Mr.Sidney Graybeal, System Planning Corporation; Rev. J. BryanHehir, U.S. Catholic Conference; Gen. David C. Jones, U.S.Air Force (Ret'd); Prof. Catherine Kelleher, University ofMaryland; Prof. Edward Linenthal, University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh; Prof. Richard Pipes, Harvard University; Dr. WilliamShuler, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Mr. LeonardS. Spector, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Dr.Edward L. Warner, RAND Corporation.

Participants' formal evaluations of the summerprogram once again gave it high marks for both content andorganization.

The "Nuclear Age" Television ProjectWGBH -- Boston's public television station -- is

completing a thirteen-part television series about thetechnology, politics and history of nuclear weapons.Although MIT has no administrative responsibility for theproject, planning for such a series started within theDefense and Arms Control Studies Program and MIT's Science,Technology and Society Program, then headed by Carl Kaysen.Professors Kaysen and Ruina, along with Steven Miller,William Durch, Shannon Kile, Katherine Magraw and Laura Reed,have been working closely with WGBH, advising on programcontent and helping to create the supporting writtenmaterials.

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OTHER VISITORS TO THE DEFENSE AND ARMS CONTROL STUDIESPROGRAM

23 October 1986

15 January 1987

5 February 1987

8 April 1987

Jurgen Scheffran, pre-doctoral physicistfrom Marburg University, West Germany,discussed analytical models for control ofanti-satellite weapons.

Informal meeting with Ambassador Paul Nitze,Special Assistant to the Secretary of Statefor Arms Control, on current issues innuclear arms control.

Meeting with a group of senior academics andpublic officials from NATO countries todiscuss SDI, and its implications forEuropean Security. Visitors included: Prof.Rafael Bardaji, Department of InternationalRelations, University of Madrid; Dr. LucianoBozzo, Researcher, International Socio-logical Institute of Gorizia, Italy; Prof.Michel Fortmann, Department of PoliticalScience, University of Montreal, Canada;Dr. Alan M. Fox, Deputy Director, Intelli-gence for Resources, Ministry of Defense,UK; Prof. Dr. Bernd Kubbig, GoetheUniversity, Frankfurt, West Germany; Dr.Mathias Schoenborn, Research Associate,Social Science Institute of the Bundeswehr,Cologne, West Germany; Mr. Knut Soerlie,Secretary of the Board, Federation ofNorwegian Industries; Col. William C.Weston, Senior Policy Analyst, Ministry ofNational Defense, Canada.

Prof. Zhuang Qubing, Fellow of the Instituteof International Relations, Beijing, China,and Visiting Scholar, Fletcher School of Lawand Diplomacy, to discuss U.S.-Chinasecurity interests.

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RELATED PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES

William Durch attended the November 1986 Conferenceof the Section on Military Studies, International StudiesAssociation, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and participated ina panel on Interdisciplinary Education Programs at the AnnualMeeting of the Northeast Political Science Association inBoston. In December, he attended the Colloquium on Science,Arms Control and National Security, sponsored by the AmericanAssociation for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D. C.Mr. Durch managed DACS activities during MIT's IndependentActivities Period (IAP, January 1987) and chaired an IAPcrisis management simulation. He gave a presentation on"Education for the Nuclear Age" at the Annual Meeting of theAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science, February1987, in Chicago; reprised the "Crisis Game" video for theMIT Medical Department; and lectured on "The Navy and Space"to the assembled Navy ROTC Midshipmen of MIT, Harvard,Wellesley and Tufts Universities. Mr. Durch also coordinatedthe fifth annual MIT/Harvard Summer Program on NuclearWeapons and Arms Control, held 21 June - 2 July 1987, inCambridge.

Lynn Eden attended a MacArthur Fellows Conference atWilliamsburg, Virginia, and the Social Science ResearchCouncil Meeting on "What's Right and Wrong with SecurityStudies?" in November 1986. In December, she spoke atCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on"Interests, the State, and American Military Policy Duringthe Early Cold War," and on the same subject in January 1987,at Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts. InFebruary, Dr. Eden chaired a panel and gave introductoryremarks on "The New Cold War" at the Institute for Peace andInternational Security Conference, "The New Security Debate,"Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Charles Glaser spoke on the Reagan Administration'sstrategic policies at the annual meeting of the Lawyers'Alliance Against Nuclear Weapons, June 1986. In November, hespoke at the MIT Program in Science, Technology and Societyon "Reagan, Reykjavik and Arms Control." He was acommentator on a panel at the conference entitled, "A Worldwith Strategic Defense," held at the University of Michigan.Dr. Glaser also attended a November meeting for new membersof the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. In December1986, along with Steven Miller, he hosted a meeting of the"Navy and Nuclear Weapons" study group to discuss authors'first drafts.

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In May 1987, Dr. Glaser attended an authors meetingto discuss chapters for the forthcoming book, FatefulVisions, a product of the Avoiding Nuclear War Project atHarvard. He also participated in a year-long seminar/studygroup on Alternative Defense at the Institute for Defense andDisarmament Studies, and prepared a paper for presentation atthe 1987 annual meeting of the American Political ScienceAssociation. In August 1987, Dr. Glaser took up anappointment as Assistant Professor of Political Science atthe University of Michigan.

Herbert Lin was invited talk to the RaytheonCorporation's Research Division in October 1986, attended aWorkshop on Arms and Artificial Intelligence sponsored by theStockholm International Peace Research Institute (November1986), and attended a symposium on Arms Control and NationalSecurity sponsored by the American Association for theAdvancement of Science Symposium (December 1986). In January1987, Dr. Lin left MIT for a position on the staff of theArmed Services Committee, U.S. House of Representatives.

Edward Linenthal gave a lecture based on the article"A Reservoir of Spiritual Power: Patriotic Faith at theAlamo," at the American Academy of Religion Annual Meeting,Atlanta, Georgia, November 1986; and a lecture on "PoliticalRevivalism and the Nuclear Age: The Worlds of the Committeeon the Present Danger and the Physicians for SocialResponsibility," at the Annual Meeting of the Society for theSocial-Scientific Study of Religion. Professor Linenthalalso gave talks entitled "Symbolic Defense: SDI and AmericanPolitical Culture," at Tufts University and HarvardUniversity in April 1987, and to the MIT/Harvard SummerProgram on Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control, in June.

Stephen Meyer gave a talk on "Soviet Perceptions ofSDI," at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria,Virginia (July 1986); was interviewed by ABC World NewsTonight and the CBS Evening News on the Reykjavik Summit(October 1986); lectured to U.S. Army ROTC at MIT on "TheWarsaw Pact as a Military Alliance" (November 1986) and tothe Russian Research Center at Harvard University on "SovietTechnological Options with Regards to SDI" (December 1986);and gave a talk to the National Security Fellows at Harvard'sKennedy School of Government, on "Soviet Security Policy."

Professor Meyer was also a member of the AdvisoryPanel on SDI of the Office of Technology Assessment,Washington, D. C., and attended its meetings in June andNovember 1986, and January 1987; and of the Aspen Strategy

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Group, whose annual meeting was held in Aspen, Colorado,August 1986. He served, in addition, on the editorial boardof International Security, and as a consultant to U.S.government agencies.

Steven Miller gave presentations on "Security andStability in Northern Europe" to the Norwegian Advisory Boardon Arms Control and Disarmament, Bodo, Norway (June 1986); on"Maritime Defense of the Northern Flank" at a Symposium ofthe Research Center for Defense History, Norwegian NationalDefense College, Oslo, Norway; on "The Maritime Strategy andNorwegian Security," at the Norwegian Institute forInternational Affairs, Oslo; on "Allies and Arms Control" atthe U.S. Arms Control Policy Conference sponsored by theRoyal Institute of International Affairs, London, England;and on "Implications of the U.S. Maritime Strategy forNorthern Europe" at the Finnish Institute for InternationalAffairs, Helsinki, Finland (all August 1986). In addition,Mr. Miller attended a Conference on "Maritime Strategy in thePacific Basin," sponsored by the Current Strategy Forum, U.S.Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island (June 1986); andMacArthur Foundation Meetings on International Peace andSecurity, Chicago, Illinois (September and November 1986).He also co-hosted an authors' review meeting of DACS-sponsored Navy and Nuclear War Project in December 1986. Mr.Miller served as consultant to the Nuclear Age Project atBoston's Public Television station, WGBH, and as co-editor ofthe journal International Security.

Christopher Paine was a member of the jointFederation of American Scientists/National Resources DefenseCouncil delegation to Moscow that negotiated an in-countryseismic monitoring agreement with Soviet Academy of Sciences*(June 1986), and a member of the October 1986 FAS Delegationto Moscow for bi-annual arms control discussions with SovietAcademy of Sciences. Mr. Paine attended the Annual Meetingof the Federation of American Scientists, Washington, D. C.,December 1986, and in February 1987 was an invited witness,legislative hearing on University of California management ofthe national nuclear weapons laboratories (Livermore and LosAlamos), before a special panel of the California StateSenate.

Don Rakestraw attended the four-day USAF ResearchAssociates Mid-Tour Conference, held at the Pentagon inWashington, D. C. (January 1987), and the annual SpringConference of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

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George Rathiens lectured both in the United Statesand abroad on nuclear weapons and arms control-relatedissues. He was Co-Director of the four-day Teaching Workshopon International Security Issues, Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia inJune 1986. He attended meetings of the Aspen Strategy Groupat Aspen, Colorado in August 1986 and at the Wye Plantation,Maryland, in November. He attended a meeting of theExploratory Project on the Conditions for Peace (EXPRO),Cohasset, Massachusetts, in September; and a conference on"Nuclear Ethics" held at the Wye Plantation in October.Also in October, Professor Rathjens spoke to the League ofWomen Voters, Lincoln, Massachusetts, on nuclear arms andnuclear power issues; lectured at Columbia University and NewYork University on arms control negotiations; was thefeatured guest on a radio talk show on WGN, Chicago; lecturedat Argonne National Laboratory on nuclear winter; andparticipated in a debate on a Comprehensive Nuclear Test BanTreaty at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio.

In November, Professor Rathjens attended a meeting onnuclear arms questions in Hamburg, West Germany, and lecturedon arms control negotiations at the University of the Ruhr.In December, he attended a meeting on the Strategic DefenseInitiative sponsored by the Max Planck Society, in Tutzing,West Germany and a meeting of the American Academy of Artsand Sciences' Committee on International Security Studies inWashington, D.C. He also lectured on arms controlnegotiations at Boston University. In January 1987,Professor Rathjens taught at the Workshop on Nuclear War-Peace Issues, University of Miami, Florida; participated in atelevision debate on the Strategic Defense Initiative,Indianapolis; lectured on avoiding nuclear war at theUniversity of Rochester, Rochester, New York; andparticipated in a debate on nuclear arms issues at PrincetonUniversity. In February, he debated the issue of NuclearWinter at the Annual Meeting of the American Association forthe Advancement of Science, Chicago; spoke on the same topicat Harvard Medical School, Boston; and briefed U.S. senatorson arms issues.

In March 1987, Prof. Rathjens participated in adebate on SDI at Cape Cod Community College, and gave aseries of talks and interviews -- to the Rotary, Kiwanis, andvarious university groups -- sponsored by the Committee onNational Security. In April, he gave a talk at theUniversity of California-San Diego on the negotiation of armscontrol agreements, and lectured on arms control at theUniversity of Miami. In May, he attended the annual Pugwashmeeting, held this year in Poland, and went on to Moscow,

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where he participated in a conference on arms control withAmerican and Soviet lawyers.

Jack Ruina participated in a number of conferencesboth in the United States and abroad. In October 1986, hespoke to MIT's 1986-87 Vannevar Bush Fellows (sciencejournalists from the US and Italy visiting the Institute forthe academic year) and Fellows from World Press Internationalon SDI and other urgent strategic weapons questions; andspoke on SDI at a meeting of the MIT Alumni Association,Bedford, New Hampshire. In November, he spoke on a panelentitled "Arms Control After Reykjavik: Can U.S. and SovietPositions on Star Wars and the ABM Treaty be Reconciled inthe Context of Comprehensive Agreements?" at theInternational Law Weekend, a joint meeting of the AmericanBranch, International Law Association; the American ForeignLaw Association; the American Society of International Law;and the Association of the Bar of the City of New York, inNew York. He also gave the H. Kendall Reynolds MemorialLecture, State University of New York, Courtland, on "SDI,'Star Wars': Opportunity or Danger for U.S.A."; and spoke on"Technological, Military, and Arms Control Issues of SDI(Star Wars)" at the Technology Studies and Peace StudiesPrograms, Wellesley College. In December, Professor Ruinaaddressed a session on "The Scientific Community and DefenseResearch" at First Annual Colloquium on Science, ArmsControl, and National Security of the American Associationfor the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC; andparticipated in the workshop, "Directions in the Study ofCrisis Management," sponsored by the Center for Strategic &International Studies, Georgetown University. He lectured on"South Africa's Nuclear Capacity," at Boston College,sponsored by the Faculty African Studies Group and theDepartment of Physics, in February. In March, he served asmoderator for a panel focussing on the Politics of SDI, partof a two day symposium to discuss the technology and politicsof the Strategic Defense Initiative, at Wellesley College;and spoke at Bryn Mawr College, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania, onvarious problems in defense and arms control. In April,Professor Ruina gave a talk at the Miller Center, Universityof Virginia, entitled "What's Happened to Arms Control?" andlectured at Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania. Hespoke to the MIT Alumni Association of New York City in May.

Dr. Ruina is a member of the National Academy ofSciences Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and SocialScience to the Prevention of Nuclear War, the AmericanAcademy of Arts and Sciences Committee on InternatinalSecurity Studies, and the Advisory Panel of the Congressional

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Office of Technology Assessment on Seismic Verification ofNuclear Tests.

Harvey Sapolsky was commentator on a panel onbureaucratic entrepreneurship at the 1986 Annual Meeting ofthe American Political Science Association.

Peter Timbie attended the November 1986 conference on"The Soviet Response to New Military Technology," HarvardUniversity Center for Science in International Affairs, andthe December 1986 conference on "The Soviet Approach toStrategic Defense," Harvard University Russian ResearchCenter.

Marc Trachtenberg attended the November 1986MacArthur Fellows Conference, Williamsburg, Virginia.

TEACHING PROGRAM

MIT faculty associated with the Defense and ArmsControl Studies Program offered the following courses inacademic year 1986-87:

Defense Politics (Sapolsky) surveyed the structure ofU.S. defense policy making, reviewing decision-making in thecivilian defense bureaucracy and the National SecurityCouncil system, as well as in the military services. Thecourse is intended to give students a feel for the workingsof the contemporary defense establishment, with particularemphasis on weapon procurement policies and politics.

Nuclear War: Threat and Avoidance (Rathjens, Ruina,et al.) is a School-wide elective course designed tointroduce undergraduate students to the history andtechnology of nuclear weapons, arms control, and relatedcontemporary issues.

Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control (Rathjens, Ruina) isa basic introductory course for graduate students thatreviews technical issues bearing on nuclear weapons policy,the arms race, and arms control. Contents include thedescription of fission and fusion weapons and their effects;basics of nuclear proliferation as a technology and policyissue, and of nuclear delivery systems, ballistic missiledefense and air defense technologies, monitoring technologiesfor verification of arms control agreements, and measures ofthe strategic balance.

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Quantitative Approaches to Defense Problems(Rathjens) introduces students to the methods of systemsanalysis for decision-making in defense and arms controlpolicy and weapons procurement. Techniques reviewed includedMonte Carlo modelling, linear programming, nuclear exchangemodels, and indifference curves.

Research Seminar in Soviet Security Studies (Meyer)is an advanced-topics seminar in Soviet security, whichexamined historical and contemporary issues in Soviet defenseplanning.

Seminar on European Security (Griffith) addressedcontemporary security issues affecting modern Europeanstates, with a focus on the international politics ofsecurity.

Statecraft, Strategy, and War (Miller) reviewed themain ideas and concepts of the most influential strategistsof land, sea and air warfare, from Machiavelli to Mahan;considerations affecting the choice of military strategy bystates and statesmen; and factors determining the likelihood,the course and the outcome of war. The course acquaintsstudents with the major works in the literature on strategy,warfare, and the modern state.

Theory and Politics of Arms Control (Miller) is anhistorically-oriented seminar on the early development andevolution of disarmament and arms control theory andpractice, from the first Hague Conference of 1899 to the SALTagreements of the 1970s. Arms race theory, bureaucratic anddomestic politics, and the role of technology are examinedfor their impact on arms control efforts, and lessons frompast efforts are applied to current negotiations.

Theory and Practice of Soviet Decision Making (Meyer)examines the structure and process of Soviet national-leveldecisionmaking, with special attention to the nationalsecurity related decisions. The first part of the coursecovers issue formation and agenda building; advocacy;decision; and implementation. The second part studiesspecific cases in defense and arms control policy, foreignpolicy, and economic and industrial policies.

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PUBLICATIONS

Carnovale, Marco. "Strategic Defenses and the Warsaw Pact."The International Spectator XXI:4 (October-December1986).

Checkel, Jeffrey (under the pseudonym Charles Glickham). "TheSoviet Union's Response to SDI: Military PressCoverage." Radio Liberty Research Publication 49 (1986).

. "New Directions for Soviet Foreign Policy."Radio Liberty Supplement 2 (1986).

. "The Unfamiliar Sides of Mikhail Gorbachev:A Foreign Policy Innovator." The Christian ScienceMonitor, December 18, 1986.

. "Changes Noted in USSR Foreign PolicyStance." Tech Talk (MIT weekly news), January 21, 1987.

Daalder, Ivo H. The SDI Challenae to Europe. Cambridge, Ma.:Ballinger Publishing Company, 1986.

Durch, William. "The Future of the ABM Treaty." AdelphiPaper 223 London: International Institute for StrategicStudies, 1987 .

Eden, Lynn R. and Steven E. Miller (eds.). Understanding theArms Control Debate. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell UniversityPress, forthcoming 1988.

Glaser, Charles."Why Even Good Defenses May Be Bad." InSteven E. Miller and Stephen Van Evera (eds.). The StarWars Controversy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton UniversityPress, 1986. Also forthcoming in Robert J. Art andKenneth N. Waltz (eds.). The Use of Force, 3rd Edition.New York: University Press of America.

. "Managing the Transition." In Samuel F.Wells and Roberts S. Litwak (eds.). Strategic Defensesand Soviet-American Relations. Cambridge, Ma: BallingerPublishing Company, 1987.

· "Defense Dominance." In Graham Allison,Albert Carnesale, and Joseph Nye (eds.). FatefulVisions: Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe. Cambridge, Ma:Ballinger Publishing Company, forthcoming.

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. "Why Do Strategists Disagree About theRequirements of Deterrence." In Lynn R. Eden and StevenE. Miller (eds.). Understanding the Arms Control Debate.Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, forthcoming1988.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas. "A Common Misapplication of theLanchester Square Law." International Security, Summer1987.

· "Plutonium Flights a Menace to North."Op-ed, The Toronto Globe and Mail, July 28, 1987.

Lepingwell, John. "The Laws of War? Lanchester Re-examined."International Security, Summer 1987.

Lin, Herbert. New Weapons Technoloaies and the ABM Treaty.(Tentative title.) McLean, Va.: Pergamon-Brassey'sPublishers, forthcoming 1988.

. "Qualitative Arms Control & the ABM Treaty,"submitted to Issues in Science and Technology.

_ Letter to the editor. New York Times, October14, 1986.

. "Software and Systems Issues in StrategicDefense." For the SIPRI Project on Arms and ArtificialIntelligence.

. "What is the Need for Navy Theater Nuclear LandAttack Capabilities?" chapter for Charles Glaser andSteven E. Miller (eds.). The Navy and Nuclear War. May1987.

Linenthal, Edward. "A Reservoir of Spiritual Power:Patriotic Faith at the Alamo." Southwestern HistoricalOuarterly, forthcoming.

Review of American Character and ForeianPolicy by Michael P. Hamilton. Forthcoming in ReligiousStudies Review.

· Review of By The Bomb's Early Light:American Thought and Culture at the Dawn of the AtomicAge by Paul Boyer. Forthcoming in Religious StudiesReview.

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_ Review of The Long Darkness: Psvcholoaicaland Moral Perspectives on Nuclear Winter, by LeonardGrinspoon. Forthcoming in Reliqious Studies Review.

Meyer, Stephen M. "Soviet Nuclear Operations." In AshtonCarter, John Steinbruner, and Charles Zraket (eds.).Manacing Nuclear Operations. Washington, D.C.: TheBrookings Institution, 1987.

. "The Soviet Spy Gaps." IEEE Sectrum, July1986.

· "Post Reykjavik." Op-ed, Washinaton Post,October 12, 1986.

· "Soviet Nuclear Operations." Signal,December 1986.

. "The Near-Term Impact of SDI on SovietStrategic Programs." Prepared as a discussion paper forthe Aspen Strategy Workshop, Aspen Colorado, July 1986.

Miller, Steven E. "The United States: Strategic Interests."In C. Archer and D. Scrivener (eds.). Northern Waters:Security and Resource Issues. Forthcoming.

(ed.) Conventional Forces and AmericanDefense Policy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton UniversityPress, 1986.

and Stephen Van Evera (eds.). The Star WarsControversy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton UniversityPress, 1986.

. "SDI and Arms Control: The UncertainConnection." In Alvin Weinberg and Jack Barkenbus(eds.). The Defensive Transition. Forthcoming.

. "The Evolution of the Postwar Navy." InMichael Mandelbaum (ed.). Postwar American MilitaryPolicy. Forthcoming.

. "The Maritime Strategy and Geopolitics theHigh North." In Kai Sandaker (ed.). Arms Control andSecurity in Northern Europe. Forthcoming.

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. "Managing the Transition from Offensive toDefensive Regimes." In Proceedings of the AmericanAssociation for the Advancement of Science Svmposium onTechnology and Arms Control. Washington, D.C.: AAAS,1987.

Paine, Christopher. "A One Kiloton Threshold Now." FAS PublicInterest Reort, December 1986.

, David Albright and Frank von Hippel. "TheDanger of Military Reactors." Bulletin of the AtomicScientists, October 1986.

,Frank von Hippel and Harold A. Feiveson.Low Threshold Nuclear Test Bans. Princeton, N.J.: Centerfor Energy and Environmental Studies, PrincetonUniversity, March 1987.

Rathjens, George. "Deterrence and Arms Control." Journal ofStrategic Studies, December 1986.

. "The Strategic Dimension." Disarmament IX:2,Summer 1986.

and Laura Reed. "Neither MAD nor Starstruck--And Doubts, Too, About Arms Control." Disarmament IX:2,Summer 1986.

and Jack Ruina. "The Real Issue in the GenevaTalks." New York Times, Sunday, August 3, 1986.

Reed, Laura, and George Rathjens. "Neither MAD norStarstruck-- And Doubts, Too, About Arms Control."Disarmament IX:2, Summer- 1986.

Ruina, Jack. "The Scientific Community and DefenseResearch," in W. Thomas Wander and Kenneth N. Luongo(eds.), Science and Security: The Future of ArmsControl, Colloquium Proceedinas. Washington, D.C.:Program on Science, Arms Control, and National Securityof the American Association for the Advancement ofScience, 1987.

. "Thoughts on the ASAT Issue." In H. GuyfordStever and Heinz R. Pages (eds.). The High Technologiesand Reducing the Risk of War. Special issue of theAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Vol. 489.New York: The New York Academy of Sciences, 1986.

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, and George Rathjens. "The Real Issue in theGeneva Talks." New York Times, Sunday, August 3, 1986.

Sapolsky, Harvey. "Equipping the Armed Forces." Armed Forcesand Society, forthcoming.

, "The Origins of the Office of NavalResearch." In Daniel M. Masterson (General editor).Naval Historv: The Sixth Svmposium of the U.S. NavalAcademy. Wilmington, De.: Scholarly Resources Inc.,1987.

, "The Real Marine Scandal," Wall StreetJournal, April 23, 1987.

Tucker, Jonathan B. "Technical Innovation, Crisis Stability,and Arms Control." Harvard International Review IX:5,May/June 1987.

. "Eggheads and Warheads Revisited:Scientists and SDI." UCAM Network News 7:2, February1987

Zirkle, Robert. "A Tangled Network: Command and Control forSDI." In John Tirman (ed.). Empty Promise: The GrowingCase Against Star Wars. Boston, Ma.: Beacon Press,1986.

. "One Year After The Challenger, A LaunchPolicy in Disarray." Nucleus 8:4, Winter 1987.

. Command and Control of Strategic Forces.Briefing Paper. Cambridge, Ma.: Union of ConcernedScientists, January 1987.

. Returning to Sace: Priorities and Choices inU.S. Sace Policy. Cambridge, Ma.: Union of ConcernedScientists, 1987.

. Modernizing Land-Based Strategic Forces: TheMidgetman and MX Missile Systems. Briefing Paper.Cambridge, Ma.: Union of Concerned Scientists,forthcoming.

, Peter Clausen and Allan Krass. In Search ofStability: An Assessment of New U.S. Nuclear Forces.Cambridge, Ma.: Union of Concerned Scientists, 1986.

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