Case Study 6

Disease Outbreak

Scenario

Makebelievia’s National Health Administration is concerned about an outbreak of Fairytale Pox and has enlisted your help to combat the disease

Characteristics of Fairytale PoxThe natural disease reservoir is unknown, but previous outbreaks have coincided with heavy spring flooding

Once in the population, the disease spreads by direct contact (e.g., like a common cold)

The incubation period of the disease is ~ 3 weeks (i.e., infected & contagious, but with no symptoms)

Mortality rates70% without treatment 15% if treated upon initial detection of symptoms2% if treated before symptoms develop

Part 1: Information gathering (5 minutes)

What geographic data would you want to collect about past outbreaks to help you better understand the disease

List at least 3 data types

Discussion Part 1

What were some things you came up with?

New InformationThe disease outbreaks seem to originate from the Boondocks, a frontier region characterized by illegal settlement, poverty, lawlessness, poor healthcare, and low education

The disease seems to be most prevalent in low, swampy areas & more prevalent in areas that were recently deforested

The major water source responsible for the seasonal flooding is winter snowfall in the Overyonder Mountains

The disease typically reaches Makebelievia’s more populated areas several weeks after outbreaks are first reported in the Bookdocks

Springtime is also when the greatest flux of people occurs due to transport of mustard turnips (the Boondocks’ chief cash crop) to market

Treatment costs $19 per patient and the population of Makebelievia is 61,000,000

Outbreaks have occurred, on average, every 3-4 years for the past several decades

Part 2: Prediction (10 minutes)

List 5-10 variables that might be useful for predicting an outbreak

Also include where you would search for the data and/or how you would collect it

Discussion Part 2

What were some things you came up with?

New Information

The president of Makebelievia has proposed an ambitious levee construction project to control seasonal flooding estimated to cost $14 billion dollars and take 6 years to complete

Part 3 (5 minutes)

Without knowing any additional information, would you support the president’s plan?

FYI: $19 * 61,000,000 = $1.159 billion

Discussion Part 4

Who supports the president’s plan?

New InformationFairytale pox is slowly developing drug resistance to the common treatment. Other treatments exist, but cost several times more and are less effective

The president’s administration has been accused of massive corruption and the secretary of the interior (who suggested the levee project) is the president’s brother… who also happens to own the largest construction contracting firm in the country and stands to make a lot of money

The last major governmental construction project in the country was plagued by delays and cost overruns ultimately resulting in a doubling of construction time and cost

In other countries similar levee projects have failed during very wet years, leading to major losses of lives & property from the resulting floods (e.g., new construction often occurs in unsafe areas due to a false sense of security from the levees)

Although mustard turnips are the officially recognized cash crop, the illegal narcotics trade in the opium beet (the predecessor to “Boondock Blow”) is highly lucrative

Part 4

What the heck do you recommend?