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Caribbean Roaming Market:Potential Revenue: 2005 – 2010
Jose F. OteroSignals Telecom Consulting
CANTO 21st Annual ConferenceSaint Kitts – June 22, 2005
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
About Signals
Founded in August 2004 Headquarters in Miami CANTO Associate Member Regional Offices
– Buenos Aires, Argentina (December 2004) More than 25 associate consultants Partnerships with consultancies in six countries
including– Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, UK and USA
Services– Market Intelligence– Competitive Analysis– Business Strategy
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Signals in the Press
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Signals @ Upcoming Events ITU Americas 2005 – Bahia, Brazil
– Convergence & Triple Play
GSM Association Plenary Meeting – Lima, Peru– Mobile Data Services
CDMA Americas – Miami, Florida– Caribbean CDMA Roaming Market– UMTS/WCDMA Potential in Latin America & Caribbean
Caribbean Prepaid Markets – Aruba– Prepaid & Churn Prevention Workshop
Broadband Latin America – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil– WiMAX Workshop– PLC Market in Latin America & the Caribbean
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Agenda The Caribbean Context Liberalization Present The Opportunity
– Bahamas– Barbados
Conclusions
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
The Caribbean is not Western Europe, Japan, Korea or the US
– Total Population does not equal potential addressable market Haiti & Cuba
– Lower GDP per Capita in many islands– Disparity on Income Distribution
Levels Infrastructure is on different evolution
levels on each market– Needs are different for each market
Haiti, Guyana Voice Aruba, Puerto Rico VAS Dominican Republic, Jamaica
Reaching low-end Users
The future is wireless– Success depends on business plan not
technology– Vertical integration is the region’s
major trend
Caribbean Context
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Liberalization Present Asymmetric development
throughout the region– Delayed entrance of competition
in the English speaking Caribbean– Young regulatory entities:
education is needed! Liberalization is just beginning…
– Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago, Suriname, Bahamas, etc.
Liberalized Markets– Regulation impacting Opex/Capex
Number portability, E911, etc. Caribbean Telecommunications
Fast-track!
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
OECS Commercial Mobile Operations 1Q05
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Liberalization : Positive Developments
Rapid increase of the mobile telephony subscriber base with most markets surpassing 70% penetration levels;
Benefits to consumers– Improvement in coverage– Improvement in QoS– Introduction of new services– Introduction of new technologies– Diversity of subscription plans
Telecom operators’ new paradigm– HOW TO MAKE MONEY REVISITING
ROAMING
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Main target for deployment of roaming-specific network for roaming should be incumbent mobile operators:– Most challenged by the arrival of
competition at the hands of pan-Caribbean operators
– Lack of large quantities of GSM 850 MHz-enabled handsets limits the ability of these networks of capturing roaming revenues
New entrants to mobile arena– Could use roaming as a additional
“captive” revenue to speed-up the operator’s ROI
– Could leverage networks to provide WLL services
– ILECs, ISPs, CATVs
The Opportunity
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Population: 299.697 (July 2004)
Area: 13.940 Km2
Political Status: Commonwealth Nation
Language: English
Telecommunications market still is a monopoly in most services. Privatization and liberalization efforts have failed.
Mobile incumbent Batelco launched GSM 1900 MHz in February 2004, but coverage needs to improve to reach the same level of service of the old TDMA network
Digicel & Cingular Wireless interested in entering the market
Bahamas
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Bahamas - Tourism by Region of Origin
USA87%
Northern Europe3%
Southern Europe1%
Western Europe2%
Canada4%
Caribbean1%
Other Regions1%
Asia1%
Bahamas
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Bahamas Total CDMA Revenues
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
EVDO Revenues $189,315 $427,295 $768,571 $1,221,470 $1,627,682 $1,983,929
Canada CDMA Roaming $3,103,012 $3,099,299 $3,110,616 $3,053,371 $2,998,051 $2,929,151
US CDMA Roaming $28,297,074 $30,444,472 $32,014,600 $32,392,478 $34,878,340 $34,899,138
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bahamas
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Population: 278.289 (July 2004)
Area: 431 Km2
Political Status: Commonwealth Nation
Language: English
Barbados has one of the most competitive mobile markets in the Eastern Caribbean with three players offering commercial service: Cable & Wireless (GSM 1900 MHz), Digicel (GSM 900/1800 MHz), and Cingular Wireless (GSM 900/1900 MHz).
4th mobile licensee, Sunbeach Communications, wont be able to launch mobile services due to financial troubles.
Barbados
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Barbados - Tourism by Region of Origin
Asia1%
Caribbean17%
Canada9%
USA24%
Northern Europe41%
Western Europe3%
Southern Europe1%
South America4%
Barbados
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Barbados Potential Roaming
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CDMA RevenuesTotal 3,877,841$ 4,175,149$ 4,392,767$ 4,445,502$ 4,787,667$
Business Travelers 655,898$ 701,743$ 734,961$ 742,486$ 798,158$ Leisure Travelers 3,221,944$ 3,473,405$ 3,657,806$ 3,703,016$ 3,989,509$
Total Voice Revenues 3,800,586$ 4,059,845$ 4,247,156$ 4,288,752$ 4,608,169$ Business Travelers 653,297$ 697,862$ 730,060$ 737,210$ 792,116$
Leisure Travelers 3,147,289$ 3,361,983$ 3,517,097$ 3,551,542$ 3,816,054$ Total SMS Revenues 77,255$ 115,303$ 145,611$ 156,751$ 179,498$
Business Travelers 2,601$ 3,881$ 4,902$ 5,277$ 6,042$ Leisure Travelers 74,655$ 111,422$ 140,709$ 151,474$ 173,455$
Source: Signals Telecom Consulting
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GSM RevenuesTotal 34,166,152$ 33,924,924$ 33,363,099$ 32,421,729$ 31,519,488$
Business Travelers 5,801,216$ 5,732,564$ 5,617,987$ 5,452,167$ 5,292,936$ Leisure Travelers 28,364,935$ 28,192,360$ 27,745,112$ 26,969,562$ 26,226,553$
Total Voice Revenues 33,647,226$ 33,209,326$ 32,517,261$ 31,546,921$ 30,614,718$ Business Travelers 5,783,748$ 5,708,475$ 5,589,514$ 5,422,718$ 5,262,479$
Leisure Travelers 27,863,478$ 27,500,850$ 26,927,747$ 26,124,203$ 25,352,240$ Total SMS Revenues 518,926$ 715,599$ 845,838$ 874,808$ 904,770$
Business Travelers 17,468$ 24,089$ 28,473$ 29,448$ 30,457$ Leisure Travelers 501,457$ 691,510$ 817,365$ 845,359$ 874,313$
Source: Signals Telecom Consulting
CANTO 21st Annual Meeting | Saint Kitts, June 2005
Caribbean mobile operators interested in increasing their revenues will start considering focalized network deployments that will allow them to provide roaming services to visitors subscribed to CDMA2000 and WCDMA/UMTS mobile services.
Key potential Caribbean CDMA roaming markets include Aruba, Bahamas, Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
While intensive data usage is not likely for vacationers, image and location based services are well positioned to stimulate future growth.
Due to the expected growth in CDMA market share of US mobile subscribers through 2010, the potential CDMA roaming revenues will grow from 45,2% of all US roaming revenues in the region in 2005 to 51,3% in 2010.
As of 1Q05, Western Europe had less than 10 million UMTS/WCDMA subscribers. Nevertheless, lower terminal costs and increased competition will accelerate uptake of this technology during the next 12-18 months.
Conclusions
Jose F. OteroPresident
Signals Telecom [email protected]
Tel: +1 786 866 9729
GRACIAS / THANK YOU BEDANKT / MERCI / DANKI