Calificación Soberana de ColombiaDurante el lanzamiento del nuevo modelo Duster en México, Bruno Pasquet, director general de Renault, explicó que la compañía comenzará a fabricar

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Calificación Soberana de Colombia

Víctor M. Herrera Managing Director Latin American Ratings 14 de junio de 2012

2.

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Agenda

•  Definiciones de Calificaciones

•  Perspectiva Regional

•  Colombia: Fundamento y Perspectiva

•  Colombia, Commodities y potencial de manufactura

3.


Una calificación soberana de Standard & Poor’s es: •  Una opinión actual de la calidad crediticia de un gobierno soberano, la cual

incorpora la probabilidad de incumplimiento y estabilidad crediticia (y en algunos casos posibilidad de recuperación).

•  Una opinión independiente, prospectiva, y comparable a nivel mundial.

•  Un reflejo de fundamentales de mediano plazo – que vé a través de ciclos económicos y políticos.

Una calificación soberana de Standard & Poor’s no es: •  Una medición de riesgo país.

•  Una aseveración o recomendación de comprar, mantener o vender un instrumento específico o de decisión de inversión.

•  Una medida de liquidez, volatilidad o valor de mercado de un instrumento financiero.

Definiciones: Qué es una calificación y qué no es

4.


Standard & Poor’s Ratings

AAA AA

A BBB

BB+ B

CCC CC

C

SD/D

BBB-

•  128 soberanos calificados a nivel mundial

•  27 soberanos calificados en Latinoamérica y el Caribe

5.


S&P Sovereign Ratings: Latin America (June 2012)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.

Chile A+/AA

Trinidad and Tobago A/A

Aruba A-/A-

Curacao A-/A-

Bahamas BBB/BBB

Brazil BBB/A-

Mexico BBB/A-

Peru BBB/BBB+

Barbados BBB-/BBB-

Colombia BBB-/BBB+

Montserrat BBB-/BBB-

Panama BBB-/BBB-

Uruguay BBB-/BBB-

Costa Rica BB/BB

Guatemala BB/BB+

Bolivia BB-/BB-

El Salvador BB-/BB-

Paraguay BB-/BB-

Suriname BB-/BB-

Dominican Republic B+/B+

Honduras B+/B+

Venezuela B+/B+

Argentina B/B

Ecuador B/B

Grenada B-/B-

Jamaica B-/B-

Belize CCC-/CCC+

Outlook: Positive, Stable, Negative

Rating: Foreign Currency / Local Currency

Ratings as of June 7, 2012.

6.


•  América del Sur se ha beneficiado de Términos de Intercambio más favorables (caso contrario a Centroamérica)

•  Mejora en la gestión económica ha contribuido a un anclaje de la estabilidad al reducir las vulnerabilidades principales.

•  Los niveles de deuda externa han bajado y las debilidades fiscales se han moderado.

•  Latinoamérica se mantiene vulnerable a una desaceleración mundial y a choques en el sector financiero.

Latinoamérica frente a la inestabilidad financiera global

7.


Mejora de Términos de Intercambio en la región

Terms of Trade, f.o.b.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bas

e Ye

ar 2

000=

100

Venezuela Chile Ecuador Colombia Peru Latin America

Source: CEPAL.

8.


Perspectiva de menor crecimiento de la economía global

Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.

Global Growth Outlook

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Latin America China India Eurozone and UK United States

Rea

l GD

P G

row

th (%

)

2010

2011-e

2012-f

2013-f

9.


Crecimiento menor a 4% en Latinoamérica


Latin American Real GDP-Weighted Growth (% chg, weighted by GDP share)

0.5

2.1

6.2

4.65.6 5.8

4.3

-1.8

6.5

4.33.5 3.6

4.2

-3-2-101234567

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f

(%)

LatAm

Average real weighted GDP growth (3.7%) 2002-2010

10.


La calificación en moneda extranjera de Colombia es BBB-/Estable

Factores de calificación más importantes

Fortalezas:

•  Políticas económicas de mercado que mantienen el crecimiento y confianza de los inversionistas.

•  Mayor profundidad de los mercados de capital domésticos.

•  Liquidez externa mejorando.

Debilidades:

•  Rigidez fiscal persistente.

•  Mala infraestructura física.

•  Redes criminales y guerrilleras.

11.


Desempeño económico de Colombia

GDP Per Capita ($US)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Colombia Sovereign MedianBBB

Brazil Peru Panama India

($US)

Average (2007-2011) 2012 F 2013 F


12.


Desempeño Fiscal de Colombia

Net GG Debt / GDP (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Colombia Sovereign Median BBB Brazil Peru Panama India

(%)

Average (2007-2011) 2012 F 2013 F


13.


Desempeño externo de Colombia

Net Public Sector External Debt / CAR (%)

(120)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Colombia SovereignMedian BBB

Brazil Peru Panama India

(%)Average (2007-2011) 2012 F 2013 F


14.


Dependencia de EUA en las expotaciones

Colombia's Export Share to Select Markets (% of Total Exports)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

China (PR,Mainland)

Developing Asia European Union United States Canada Latin America

2000 2005 2010 2011 Q1

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistic Database

15.


MDS (Credit Default Swaps de Colombia)

16.


Desempeño de COP vs MXN, BRL y CLP desde 9/15/08

17.


Exportaciones Tradicionales de Colombia

Fuente: DANE (café, carbón, petróleo y derivados, ferroníquel) -- 2012 hasta abril

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

18.


Acuerdo de Complementación Económica (ACE 55)

Balanza Comercial Brasil/México

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Balanza Comercial Autos y Autopartes Brasil/México

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fuente: ALADI

19.


Se abre una oportunidad para Colombia

Exportación colombiana de automóviles

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Saca Renault producción de Brasil Reforma (21-Mar-2012).- La armadora Renault dejará de fabricar los modelos Sandero y Stepway en Brasil debido al encarecimiento de la producción en aquel país, por lo que ahora los fabricará y exportará desde Colombia… …La nueva camioneta Duster también se fabricará en Colombia y la marca espera vender como mínimo 6 mil durante este año en nuestro País. Durante el lanzamiento del nuevo modelo Duster en México, Bruno Pasquet, director general de Renault, explicó que la compañía comenzará a fabricar y exportar los modelos Sandero y Stepway desde la planta de Renault Sofasa en Envigado, Colombia, a partir de mayo.

No sería la primera vez que Colombia exportara muchos automóviles… pero ahora con NAFTA

Fuente: DANE. Montos en millones de dólares

20.


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Calificación Soberana de ColombiaDurante el lanzamiento del nuevo modelo Duster en México, Bruno Pasquet, director general de Renault, explicó que la compañía comenzará a fabricar