Business Evolution & Transformation

Jac Spies Chief Advisor at Praesignis

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This book is a free complimentary issue from

www.praesignis.com

It may be copied and distributed by the viewer

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PRELUDE Evolution is not random

It follows certain patterns Different stages can be predicted

This knowledge can help solve problems It can also help define strategic opportunities

The Internet of Things (IoT) links physical objects with electronics, software, sensors, and network connectivity, which enables these objects to collect and exchange data, is already making significant inroads into Business; and

The Internet of Me (IoM) turns personalisation into customer relations that remove traditional boundaries, limitations, overwhelming choices, delivering extreme relevance every time; and

The Patterns of Evolution (PoE) are not only informative (describing what’s going to happen) but also prognostic (describing how it’s going to happen), i.e. making it possible to predict the directions in which a given business or system could evolve.

This book is about finding ways on how to shift from an aging business models and strategy planning practices to a new way of thinking and doing to stay ahead of such challenges as IoT and IoM. It’s about how to manage your own future in understanding the PoE and capitalising on the Technology Evolution Trends (TET) that in turn impact the Business Evolution Trends (BET).

This book is compiled by the Chief Advisor of Praesignis to stimulate discussion and ideas on how to apply these new insights to enable Business to transform in time to stay abreast of the digital tsunamis coming their way.

We hope you enjoy reading this book.

Liesl Lodewyk Marketing Manager Info@praesignis.co.za April 2016

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CONTENTS

PRELUDE ................................................................................................................................... 3

Chapter 1: a Case for Change .................................................................................... 6

Different but Still the Same .................................................................................................... 7

Business Discontent ................................................................................................................ 7

Psychological Inertia ............................................................................................................... 8

Myopic Views.......................................................................................................................... 9

Linear Thinking ..................................................................................................................... 10

Chapter 2: the patterns of eVoLUtIon ............................................................... 12

Altshuller’s Patterns of Evolution ......................................................................................... 13

The Driving Forces of Evolution ............................................................................................ 14

The Eight Evolution Patterns ................................................................................................ 15

Entwinement ........................................................................................................................ 15

Chapter 3: teChnoLogY anD BUsIness eVoLUtIon trenDs ........................... 16

Evolution Trends ................................................................................................................... 17

Chapter 4: assess the CUrrent eVoLUtIon state .......................................... 20

Strategic Hopes and Reality .................................................................................................. 21

Ask the Crew ......................................................................................................................... 21

Peg the Evolution Patterns ................................................................................................... 22

Identify Evolution Gaps ........................................................................................................ 24

Plotting Evolution Trend Potentials ...................................................................................... 25

Record the Current Ideality Index for each product/service ................................................ 27

Chapter 5: fUnCtIons are foreVer ....................................................................... 28

Technologies, Functions, and Solutions ............................................................................... 29

Chapter 6: IDentIfY the neXt eVoLUtIon state ............................................... 31

Identify Your Emerging Evolution Patterns .......................................................................... 32

Identify the Potential Evolution Trends................................................................................ 33

Check the Internet for Technology Breakthroughs .............................................................. 34

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Ideality Progress ................................................................................................................... 34

Value Quotient Comparisons ............................................................................................... 34

The Risk Levels ...................................................................................................................... 35

Chapter 7: MoDeLLIng sUBstanCes anD energIes ............................................ 36

Su-Field Analysis ................................................................................................................... 37

The Five Strategies to Solve Su-Field Problems .................................................................... 38

Chapter 8: transforM toWarDs the fUtUre ................................................... 40

Long Term Growth ................................................................................................................ 41

Incremental and Transformational S-Curves ........................................................................ 41

Ambidextrous, Hybridization, and Crossbreeding Organisation Models ............................. 42

The Dawning of New Horizons ............................................................................................. 42

referenCes ........................................................................................................................ 49

ABOUT THE AUTHOR .............................................................................................................. 50

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Chapter 1: a Case for Change

Staying the same is a waste

Change Brings

Transformation and Growth

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Different but Still the Same

You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice. ~ Quotes Empire ~

In other words: If you don’t make a difference, you don’t matter.1

And still we find many executives doing the same thing over and over, yet expect different results.

The question they do not know how to answer is: “How should business strategies be crafted that will ensure prosperity in an ever changing and demanding world?”

The answer is simple: Know what to do and how to do it.

The recently discovered Evolution Patterns by Genrich Altshuller actually tells us what is going to happen in future to our products and services and the Evolution Trends (Zlotin & Zusman, 2006) will inform you how it is going to happen.

By understanding these Evolution Patterns, underpinned with the Technology and Business Evolution Trends, one can pro-actively take advantage of the Evolution Forces (Zlotin & Zusman, 2006), to pull your strategic intent into future incarnations, before it would otherwise occur naturally at a later date.

Business Discontent

The intent of Business Strategies is business growth and profit built on the organisation’s products and services. The main focus of these strategies up to now is based on a good understanding of the market needs, and on ways how to outdo the competition for the bigger share.

Many endeavours based on linear projections of sales to answer the question: “What does the future hold for my current products or services?” was lost because linear projections cannot forecast non-linear time based events. More confusion results when unexpected disruptive new products/services enter the marketplace.

These disruptive intruders usually are empowered by new technologies replacing the old. A good example was the digital technology replacing many analogue devices and services. Disruptive breakthroughs of this kind are usually not foreseen by the business

1Tony Manning, 2001: Principle 1 from making sense of Strategy.

The Evolution Patterns tell you what is going to happen to your products and services in the future and The Evolution Trends

will inform you how it is going to happen.

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strategy planners focussing on market surveys, linear projections or listening to the voice of the customer. Asking customers on how to improve a product/service the response will be incremental in scale e. g. asking a 19th century London coach driver on what improvements he would embrace, would probably have been a request for faster horses.

It is therefore necessary to extend futuristic thinking by asking questions like: “What other possible ways are there to provide the same functionality that the current product/service is offering?” or more precisely: “What change/s should be made to shift the product/service to the next stage on a specific pre-determined line of evolution?” It is consequently not surprising that many disruptive products/services are mostly initiated by entrepreneurs that apply the latter question that finds new technologies to replace outdate ones. These entrepreneurs and technology geeks understand technology evolution trends and the universal driving forces behind them.

Before business executives and managers can embrace this new thinking paradigm it is necessary to understand and overcome three inhibiting factors that constrain non-linear thinking viz:

• Psychological Inertia,

• Myopic Views, and

• Linear Thinking.

Psychological Inertia

Man’s brain has very limited hard-wiring on how to think, do and behave. Human thinking and behaviour are continuously taught and instilled from cradle to grave. These thinking habits are thrust upon us by many external influences from learning institutions to doomsday prophets. Therefore every individual has a programmed1 understanding of reality as it is imbedded in his/her mind. These insights are obviously cognitive and emotional2. Further to this limitation is the fact that all stimuli picked up by man’s senses every moment are blocked by his/her Reticular Activating System (Romilla Ready and Kate Burton, 2004), which then only allows the ones that are important for survival, has novelty value or has high emotional content to enter the conscious mind. Although the Reticular Activating System filter protects the individual from being overwhelmed by too many simultaneous inputs, it limits insights to become personal views/prejudices that lead to psychological inertia.

The effect of these limitations are illustrated in Figure 1 illustrating how a final solution for a problem will only be understood and acceptable if it falls within the central overlapping programmed limitations of the individual or team, while the best solution may lie outside these ring-fences.

1 Romilla Ready and Kate Burton, 2004.

2 John Lehrer, 2009.

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Figure 1

Myopic Views

Quoting from Professor Raymond E. Dart’s Preface in the book of Gerritt M. Mes (1964) Now Men and Tomorrow Men1

“For some years past Mr. Mes has felt that what we know and think we know about time, extensive as it may be, is utterly inadequate. We even lack words to express the attitudes of individuals and of communities towards their futures. Yet it should be obvious that their attitudes, the ways in which individuals and communities regard their futures, have in reality determined from year to year and from generation to generation what their futures, whether as individuals or as communities, have actually become.

That is why he has begun the business of repairing that deficiency in human thinking by coining two new compound words, tempocognition and temporealisation whose object it is to describe the two most outstanding characteristics which he has noted both in the private attitudes of individuals and in the public attitudes of communities relative to their futures.

Tempocognition is the ability most of us have to think out the future before us as being the more or less inevitable outcome of the present situation in which we find ourselves, whether personally or nationally. But at that point it stops and as a motive force is almost inert.

Temporealisation on the other hand is the faculty of visualising the future vividly enough to influence the outlook of the individual or the community and thereby affect their achievements either adversely or favourably.

The tempocognition and the temporealisation, that together build up human time images, being made only of such variable and evanescent stuff as the human thoughts

1 http://www.rhodesia.nl/NowMenandTomorrowMen_by_GM_Mes.pdf (Visited April 2014)

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that became fixed in their attitudes, have also naturally undergone vast changes down the course of human history.”

This insight obviously tells CEO’s that ‘tomorrow-men’ (temporealisation) are essential to participate in business strategy developing sessions to enhance the ‘now-men’ (tempocognition) thinking that develop strategies limited on current and yesterday’s information hoping that it will impact the future.

Linear Thinking

From birth to boardroom most people are trained and programmed to think linearly, which makes it very difficult for us to forecast non-linear events. A typical example of linear thinking is the Economists predicting future economic outcomes using predominantly linear methods with linear thinking, which we experience to be mostly wrong.

Chaos theory however being misunderstood by Business Management as meaning total confusion, actually opened the door on how to manage non-linear events.

“Chaos theory is the study of nonlinear dynamics, in which seemingly random events are actually predictable from simple deterministic equations.

In a scientific context, the word chaos has a slightly different meaning than it does in its general usage as a state of confusion, lacking any order. Chaos, with reference to chaos theory, refers to an apparent lack of order in a system that nevertheless obeys particular laws or rules; ……….”1

In other words: Systems, no matter how complex they may be, rely upon an underlying order. And the Evolution Patterns2 and Trends3, of which many are non-linear, can now be used to predict the next evolution incarnations of technology and business systems with confidence.

Having said that, what now?

The answer is to develop business strategies that will be pulled into the future by the prevailing Evolution Forces.

Thus, the fundamental question that should be answered is: “What changes should be made to my products/services to achieve the next stage on the pre-determined line of Evolution?”

Therefore one needs to:

1 Posted by: Margaret Rouse (2009) http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/chaos-theory

2 Discovered by Genrich Altshuller, See: Boris Zlotin and Alla Zusman, 2006

3 Darrell Mann, 2004.

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Understand the Evolution Patterns that drive a specific product/service to know what will happen to it, as time moves on.

Apply the 35 Technology and 44 Business Evolution Trends to the specific product/service to see how it can be pulled into future scenarios.

And, one should also understand:

How to model the material substances and forces at play within the identified future systems,

How to identify the proven standard strategies to resolve problems that could emerge from the modelled future system,

How to identify and resolve contradictions and conflicts in the anticipated future systems, and

How to transform and grow the foreseen organisation.

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Chapter 2: the patterns of eVoLUtIon

Darwin Formulated the Evolution Theory

Altshuller Discovered the Evolution Patterns

Apply the Evolution Forces to

Get Pulled into the Future

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Altshuller’s Patterns of Evolution

Altshuller’s Patterns of Evolution are not only informative (describing how systems evolve) but also prognostic, making it possible to predict the directions in which a given system would evolve; and they are instrumental, helping to realize these directions, and ultimately control the system’s evolution.

This discovery is emerging as one of the most powerful systemised knowledge that should be applied in strategic thinking.

DEFINITIONS1

PATTERNS OF EVOLUTION represent a compilation of trends that document strong, historically-recurring tendencies in the development of natural or man-made systems, e.g.

o Evolution towards decreased human involvement

o Evolution towards increased dynamism and controllability

o Evolution towards micro-levels and the increased use of fields

EVOLUTIONARY TRENDS are a sequence of events directly and/or indirectly connected through cause-effect relationships. An Evolutionary Trend shows what the next phase of a system will involve, e.g.

o Growth of “high-tech” technologies

o Increasing attention to the environment

o Increasing utilization of synthetic materials

LINES OF EVOLUTION reflects the historical sequence of changes that a technological system undergoes during its evolution. A Line of Evolution shows how a system could evolve, e.g. the historic evolution of fields:

Phase 1: Use of a permanent field

Phase 2: Transition to a pulsed field

Phase 3: Utilizing a pulsed field with matched frequency

The Patterns of Evolution shows what will happen as a result of evolution (e.g. increasing dynamism); and Evolution Trends and Lines shows how this goal will be accomplished (phase by phase).

1 Boris Zlotin and Alla Zusman, 2006.

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The Driving Forces of Evolution

Evolution is driven by time over which man has no control, i.e. evolution patterns manifest itself through time and cannot be stopped by human intervention. However, by understanding the evolution patterns, trends and levels man can strategize on how to harness these forces to his benefit.

THE EVOLUTION PATTERNS

A good understanding of the eight Evolution Patterns enables the observer of a system to forecast what is going to happen to the particular system in time, be it a product, a service or a business model.

THE FORCES OF MAN-MADE SYSTEMS

The majority of man-made systems evolve from these Evolution Patterns to satisfy human requirements and needs. This ensuing chain reaction of human needs generate local driving forces that are responsible for the evolution of various specific man-made systems.

THE FORCES OF TECHNOLOGY

Technology Trends can used to forecast the next technology jump of a technology applied in a product or service. However, to make a reliable technical forecast for a particular subsystem (such as a car door) one must first understand where the higher-level system is heading towards (the automobile).

THE LEVELS OF EVOLUTION

Levels of Evolution as depicted in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2

Evolutionary forces of the higher level serve as an evolutionary driving force of the lower levels.

Universal Forces

Biological Forces

Evolution of human civilization as a whole

Evolution of man-made systems

Evolution of Technology

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The evolution forces work top-down and man works bottom-up, which makes technology the cornerstone for man to build new systems, which in turn become the platforms for different civilizations. This is therefore the centre piece from where man should start to develop strategies he would like to be ‘pulled’ into the future by the evolution forces.

The Eight Evolution Patterns

When confronted by the following eight Evolution Patterns your immediate response will be; “I know all that stuff or it is obvious if you just observe what’s happening in the world!” True. But have you stopped observing and just though by yourself: “How can I use these obvious patterns to the benefit of my business?” And that is exactly what this book is about. As you will see, these obvious patterns play a significant role in deciding how to alter your business strategy to be pulled into the future scenarios that will enable the business to continue to grow.

The eight mighty Evolution Patterns:

1. Technology follows a life cycle of birth, growth, maturity and decline. 2. Evolution towards Ideality. 3. Uneven development of subsystems (resulting in contradictions). 4. Increasing dynamism and controllability. 5. Increasing complexity, followed by simplicity (through integration). 6. Matching and mismatching of parts. 7. Decreasing human involvement with increasing automation. 8. Transition from macro-systems to microsystems and use of energy fields.

Entwinement

The Patterns of Evolution being a compilation of evolution trends that recur in the development of natural or man-made systems, the Patterns of Evolution are therefore not to be assumed as separate simplistic events that operate independently, but rather as entwined. ‘Entwinement’ in this context means that each of the eight evolution patterns applies to itself, but may also apply to the other seven patterns and may even apply over the eight patterns in Toto. In other words, each of these eight patterns does not act in singularity in a system (product/service), they all apply to a system in different degrees at different times.

Entwinement will be explained in more detail in Chapters 3, 4, and 6 when non-linear trends are shown as jumps in a sequential format from ‘left to right’, the influence of the Ideality Equation, and S-curve jumps.

However complicated this may sound at the moment it remains imperative that these evolution patterns must be taken into consideration when a strategy is crafted for a specific product/service, because only knowing what is going to happen to the current product/service the strategist will be in a position to decide on how the evolution trends can be applied to enable viable strategies that will be future resistant.

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Chapter 3: teChnoLogY anD BUsIness

eVoLUtIon trenDs

Technology is the DNA of Business

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Evolution Trends

Genrich Altshuller discovered the evolution patterns and technology trends during the latter part of the 20th century, which was then further researched by academics and entrepreneurs inter alia like Boris Zlotin & Alla Zusman of Russia, and Darrell Mann and his team in the UK, who published their findings during the first decade of the new millennium. Having introduced the reader to the evolution patterns in the previous chapter, this chapter will now deal with the findings of Darrell Mann, which he published as the 35 Technology Trends1 during 2002 and the 44 Business Trends2 during 2004.

Note however that these evolution trends published by Darrell Mann do not differentiate between Evolution Trends (cause and effect relationships) and Evolution Lines (historic sequences) as defined by Zlotin & Zusman (2006). This differentiation is not really significant at this stage for crafting strategies. The contribution of these evolution trends is to point the strategist from the current state to the next possible evolution stages.

The Technology and Business Trends are, however, linked to one of the following three categories: Interface, Space or Time depending on its dominant characteristics adds more insight for the strategist.

Examples of these trends are:

• Interface Related o Technology Trends: Damping, Colour Interaction, Controllability,

Reducing Energy Conversions. o Business Trends: Transparency, Customer Purchase Focus, Market

Evolution, Human Involvement. • Space Related

o Technology Trends: Smart Materials, Object Segmentation, Dynamization.

o Business Trends: Surface Segmentation, Asymmetry, Boundary Breakdown.

• Time Related o Technology Trends: Action Co-Ordination, Non-Linearity. o Business Trends: Rhythm Co-Ordination, Mono-Bi-Poly.

The boundaries between these categories are blurred, a specific trend may even appear in more than one classification, and non-linear trends can jump between these categories.

Interpreting the specific trend in the right context of Interface, Time or Space is therefore very important.

1 Darrell Mann, 2002.

2 Darrell Mann, 2004.

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An example of a space related technology evolution trend can be Dynamized as depicted in Figure 4 below:

Figure 4

Dynamization in the real world can be seen by example in the evolution of the steering mechanism of a car, which started as a rigid mechanical steering wheel, to become a flexible multi-jointed mechanism, to be replaced by a hydraulic system, to eventually become an electronic system.

The listed top-down sequences of the trends in their different categories are of significance in the sense of recorded occurrences in our current existence.

A typical example of an Interface Trend can be seen in Figure 5 viz: Customer Expectations.

Real world examples are: A Commodity can be timber; a Product can be a car; a Service stage can be a hotel shuttle service; a customer Experience can be Disneyland, and a Transformation can be a worm transforming into a butterfly.

Figure 5

These trends are all published in Darrell Mann’s book, Hands-on Systematic Innovation: For Business and Management. Lazarus Press (2004), UK, where each trend is flowcharted with examples at each stage that enables the strategist to assess the status of the current product/service. Darrell also added to each trend the reasons why a jump to the next evolution phase should be considered, which empowers the strategist to craft viable strategies with confidence.

And having taken note of the principle of ‘entwinement’ one can already see the entwinement of business trends with the technology trends applied in the business. One can hardly find a business that does not apply some technology. And it is therefore obvious that status of the technologies on its S-curves, as an example, will have a direct bearing on the S-curve of the business, and its Ideality quotient.

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The following chapter will explain in more detail how one can go about developing strategies underpinned by the evolution patterns and trends.

Please refer to ATTACHMENT B and ATTACHMENT C for the complete lists of the Technology Evolution Trends and the Business Evolution Trends. Note that many trends in these two categories carry the same descriptive word, however, when they are defined the differences as applied in Technology or Business become clear without deviating from the fundamental meaning.

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Chapter 4: assess the CUrrent

eVoLUtIon state

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Strategic Hopes and Reality

Business strategies aimed towards a long term vision makes it imperative that the strategist must assess what the impact of technology evolution will be over the long term.

Strategies that are implemented top down in a business usually have a quick effect on the sub-structures within the business. To enable these strategies to also remain viable over the long term one must ensure that the technologies applied at the sub-structure levels will remain effective. If this is not the case the strategist will need to plan when and how the system will shift to the next technology evolution stage.

This is important because outdated technologies applied at grass root levels will have detrimental long term effect on the business. Figure 6 below illustrates the argument.

Figure 6

To ensure that long-term business strategies remain viable the strategist must ensure that the evolution patterns and trends of the current technologies are kept up-to-date.

Ask the Crew

A good practice is to also collect the internal views and assessments from the crew that are at the coalface in manufacturing, providing, or selling the product/service before embarking on evolution pattern and trend assessment exercises.

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The questions formulated in Table 2 below would be typical for the crew to address.

CURRENT FUTURE

AT SYSTEM’S LEVEL INTERNAL

What are the problems in the current product/service?

Any ideas how these issues can be resolved?

AT SUB-SYSTEMS’

LEVEL INTERNAL

What are the current problems of specific sub-systems in the product/service?

Any ideas how these issues can be resolved?

EXTERNAL TO THE SYSTEMS

Are there issues caused by some external system that affects our product/service negatively?

Any ideas how these issues can be resolved?

Table 1

The Customer Expectation Analysis

A Customer Expectations Survey on the product /service will identify desired and undesired attributes of the product/service. These desirable and undesirable attributes of the current product/service will direct the strategist on where improvements are required. Obviously some of these improvements may require technology/business system interventions, where the solution may be found within the evolving evolution patterns and trends.

Peg the Evolution Patterns

Evolution Pattern Assessments informs the strategist on WHAT will happen to the product/service in the future. To assess future states in context it is necessary to identify the current state of the product/service.

DYNAMIC patterns appearing when the system is in its mature state:

• Decreasing human involvement with increasing automation. The current product/service is:

o Manual controlled

o Semi-automated

o Fully automatic.

• Transition from macro-systems to microsystems and use of fields. The current product/service is:

o Large & cumbersome

o Small & effective

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o Mainly electronic driven.

KINEMATIC patterns that determine the general evolution of a system:

• Technology follows a life cycle of birth, growth, maturity and decline (S-curve) The current product/service is:

o In birth

o Growing fast

o Mature

o In decline.

• Uneven development of subsystems (resulting in contradictions) The current product/service has:

o All subsystems are operating independently

o Some subsystems still needs to be synchronised

o All subsystems are balanced & operate in harmony.

• Evolution towards Ideality. The current product/service has:

o Many harmful and few beneficial attributes

o Some beneficial and some harmful attributes

o Dominantly beneficial attributes.

STATIC patterns that is present at the beginning of a systems life cycle:

• Increasing dynamism and controllability. The current product/service is:

o Single jointed

o Multiple jointed

o Completely flexible

And are:

o Mechanical controlled

o Pneumatic controlled

o Electronic controlled.

• Matching and mismatching of parts. The current product/service has:

o Many mismatched parts

o Most mismatching parts

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o All parts matched.

• Increasing complexity, followed by simplicity (through integration) The current product/service:

o Is extremely complex

o Has complex and simplistic parts

o Is very simplistic.

At the end of this exercise the strategist should have a fairly good insight on the current evolution state of the product/service, where problem areas are raising its head, and where opportunities are in the offing.

Identify Evolution Gaps

Although the process to develop viable strategies rooted in the Patterns of Evolution and the Evolution Trends is pretty straight forward, the strategist will however need to make sure that he is well versed in all the technology and business evolution trends to enable the strategist to identify and assess potential evolution trend jumps.

The following insights are fundamental in the application of the evolution trends:

1. The general rule is that systems evolve from left to right, with a few exceptions that we will deal with later.

2. The Ideality ratio [Ideality ratio = (Beneficial attributes)/ (Non-beneficial attributes)] increase as a systems evolves from left to right.

3. Each evolution stage has its own S-curve.

4. That entwined evolution trends trigger the evolution patterns.

5. Evolution trends should be used in developing strategies and in solving problems, i.e. identify the benefits that emerge as we brainstorm on why the system should jump to the next stage.

Note that all the trends result in beneficial jumps as one progresses to the right, with the exception of two trends namely: Mono-Bi-Poly (See Figure 7) and Trimming (See Figure 8).

Figure 7 Figure 8

Com

plex

ity

Ti

Point of Maximum Complexity

Trimming Valid* Bene

fits

Optimum

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* Take care not to trim fat and muscle.

Linear Trends

Internet has thousands of sites regarding linear trends that address transitory events.

TRIZ on the other hand looks actively for contradictions between different linear trends that give more useful information and an opportunity to find inventive solution in resolving the contradictions/conflicts that may hamper growth. (This is when scenario planning and other techniques bail-out with their different assumptions.)

Non-linear/Discontinuous Trends

Figure 7 below depicts the process when dealing with discontinuous jumps, i.e. discontinuity enables the strategist to jump some stages in the applicable flow-charts published in Darrell Mann’s book, Hands-on Systematic Innovation: For Business and Management. Lazarus Press (2004), UK.

Figure 9

Plotting Evolution Trend Potentials

An easy way to assess a current state of a product/service is using a table format. See Table 3 below.

Taking as an example the Interface Related Business Trend from the 44 Business Evolution Trends:

TREND: Interface Related Business Trend

CURRENT POSITION OF PRODUCT/SERVICE

Customer Expectations Service - Stage 3 of 5 stages, because ………

Customer Purchase Focus Price - Stage 4 of 4 stages, because ….

Self-Organisation Awareness Unconscious - Stage 1 of 5 stages, because ……..

Knowledge Etc.

Etc.

Table 3

My Specific Situation

My Specific Solution

World’s Best Ideas in this

Situation

A Situation like Mine

SHORT-CUT

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Future growth opportunities can easily be identified by plotting the current stages of the products/services on the 35 Technology and 44 Business trends. By also plotting the competitors’ products/ service can provide a value-add insight on where the competition is in a leading position.

Figure 10 below, as an example, compares a business product (the solid line) with that of a competitor (the dotted line) on the different technologies applied by them. In this example the technology evolution trend, marked as number 1 on the radar chart the competitor has the upper hand (e.g. the competitor noticed by looking at the Dynamization trend that he can replace a mechanical subsystem in his product with a more beneficial electronic device.)

The strategist can also see that technology trends 3 and 8 on the radar chart are at par with the closest competitor and should be investigated if the next technology evolution stages are possible.

Figure 10

In Figure 11 below, a comparison on business trends, the competition has the upper hand on trend no 8 in the radar chart, which in this case is the interface evolution trend known as Customer Expectations. The competitor achieved this strategic advantage by also providing a “service” to customers (see Figure 5), i.e. that clients can contract the supplier to apply his product on their behalf when required; e.g. buying power by the hour instead buying the plant.

The strategist can also see that business trend 3 on the radar chart is at par with the closest competitor and should be investigated if the next evolution stages are feasible.

Figure 11

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The maturity state of the product/service may already be at the stage where the product/service has reached the end of its sustainable life and needs to be replaced by the next generation.

The birth of a new generation S-curve (a new life cycle) unveils new evolutionary resources that allow the system to evolve while gradually consuming these resources. See Figure 12 below.

Figure 12

Record the Current Ideality Index for each product/service

Apply the Ideality principle, Ideality = (Sum of beneficial attributes)/ (Sum of detrimental attributes), to the current product/service to create a benchmark index against which the potential new products/services can be assessed. Obviously if the index is not significantly better reconsider the choice.

The ideal asymptotic outcome of these trends obviously are:

• The ideal Interface is Perfection,

• The ideal moment in Time is Now, and

• The ideal Space trend is to be Free.

These asymptotic indicators underpins the Law of Ideality, which states that any system throughout its lifetime, tends to become more reliable, simple, effective, more ideal; and history shows that organisations that don’t tackle the issues arising from Ideality thinking tend to go out of business. (Darrell Mann)

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Chapter 5: fUnCtIons are foreVer

Functions Never Change

Solutions Change

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Technologies, Functions, and Solutions

Don’t craft long-term strategies on current solutions only because current solutions may already be close to its decline phase.

Base long term strategies rather on function curves, because functions tend to last “forever”, e.g. the horse-cart solutions are history but the function of transportation is still with us. See Figure 13 below that illustrates the principle.

Figure 13

To develop a clear insight of the different functions in a system is to do a Function Analysis of the system. The main value of doing a Function Analyses on a system is to highlight insufficient, non-beneficial, harmful, and missing functions in the current product/service that can open opportunities to counter emerging competitive products/services.

Function Analysis identifies for the strategist functions that are:

• Beneficial as solid arrows,

• Insufficient as dotted arrows,

• Excessive as a twin solid arrow,

• Harmful functions as zig-zag arrows.

It is obvious that the strategist will assess all these findings to note potential breakthrough opportunities.

Start a functional analysis by defining the main/core function of the product/service followed by the other beneficial functions that enables the main function. Add then all other internal functions of the system and any linked external functions. Indicate which functions are beneficial, insufficient, excessive, or harmful.

Figure 13 below is an example of a functional diagram for a syringe. Notice that the Nurses hand is an external factor to the syringe as the system under study.

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Figure 13

The strategist identifies and record all the non-contributory functions that can be trimmed from the future product, for later attention.

The strategist then looks for possible functionalities that have some relationship with the current product at a higher evolution level.

See Figure 14 below that illustrates the point.

Figure 14

An evolution pattern for a specific function within a system will only achieved enough critical mass to jump to the next evolution state when some of the applicable technology and business trends endure sufficient tension to trigger such an event.

Knowing this, the strategist must also assess the ‘tension’ factors of each function within a system by looking at all the elements/attributes of the specific function.

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The next evolution state

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Chapter 6: IDentIfY the neXt eVoLUtIon state

“What is happening here, dear Watson?”

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Identify Your Emerging Evolution Patterns

Start the journey by looking at what is going to happen with the company’s current products/services, i.e. look to what extent is the product/service impacted by each of these patterns.

DYNAMIC patterns appear when the system is in its mature state:

• Decreasing human involvement with increasing automation. A system that is already fully automated is a good indicator that the next evolution jump will be to a radical new technology or business model.

• Transition from macro-systems to microsystems and use of fields. A system that is already at the limits of its miniaturization ability is a good indicator that the next evolution jump will be to a new S-curve. Also look at entwining with the Dynamization trend making more use of ‘force fields’.

KINEMATIC patterns determine the general evolution of a system:

• Technology follows a life cycle of birth, growth, maturity, and decline (S-curve) When the current system is in decline one can look at trimming, improving the Ideality quotient, or look for contradictions in the system that could rejuvenate the system when resolved.

• Uneven development of subsystems (resulting in contradictions) A Function Analysis is a good tool to identify contradiction and inefficiencies in a product/service that can open new horizons when resolved, and improving the Ideality quotient.

• Evolution towards Ideality. Apply the Ideality Quotient to the system and its sub-structures to identify non-beneficial and costly functions that need to be eliminated.

STATIC patterns are present at the beginning of a systems life cycle:

• Increasing dynamism and controllability. Look where can the next stage in the Dynamization evolution trend be applied:

o Immobile o Single joint o Multiple joints o Completely flexible o Liquid o Gas o Field

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• Matching and mismatching of parts. Look for the contradictions and conflicts to be resolved using the Function Analysis tool.

• Increasing complexity, followed by simplicity (through integration) Brainstorm the complex components to find ways on how to simplify it through integration, transformation, or transferring of functionalities.

By now the strategist should have a fairly good insight where to exploit opportunities that will be driven by the evolution forces at play within the evolution patterns.

Moving to the next stage on HOW to achieve these jumps, knowing that these evolution patterns on ‘what will happen’ are clusters of entwined evolution trends, it is necessary to assess each one of the 35 technology and 44 business evolution trends to see which ones will lend itself at this point of time to pull the current system into its next incarnation.

Identify the Potential Evolution Trends

At this stage the strategist starts to assess the how that activates the what, i.e. “how will we be able to jump to the next evolution stage?”

The Assessment and Brainstorming Team

Appoint a formal brainstorming team to with clear goals and target dates, e.g. “Do a gap analysis between the current product and competitor products on all technology and business evolution trends.”

Teams should consist of ‘tomorrow-men’ and ‘today-men’ that have a thorough understanding of the product/service.

Ensure that every member of the brainstorming team has read and understands each of the different evolution trends and its stages as published in Darrell Mann’s book, Hands-on Systematic Innovation: For Business and Management. Lazarus Press (2004), UK.

The Main Steps

• Brainstorm potential stage jumps for each of the 35 Technology Evolution Trends and the 44 Business Evolution Trends that could apply to the current product/service.

• Radar Chart the outcomes.

• Match the outcomes to each applicable Evolution Pattern to assess its evolution marketing potential by comparing it to what is happening in the market and to the competitors.

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Example

Figure 15

Using the technology trend “Dynamization”, see figure 15, one may find that your product is still at the “Jointed System” stage and that most of your competitors are already at the “Fluid or Pneumatic” stage, which means that your innovation strategy should be:

1. Beat the competition with a disruptive innovation to take the current market with a more ideal “Fluid or Pneumatic System” improvement, or

2. Come up with an innovation that outstrips the “Fluid or Pneumatic System” by jumping to a “Field Based System”

Check the Internet for Technology Breakthroughs

Having identified some potential innovations one should in this day and age surf the key words on the Internet, which is a prolific source to track and stay abreast with recent technology breakthroughs, to see what could possibly already exist.

Check Current and Pending Patent Databases

Go to http://www.patentinspiration.com/ as one example to see what you can use without re-inventing the wheel, or what you need to work around.

Ideality Progress

Apply the Ideality principle, Ideality = (Sum of beneficial attributes)/ (Sum of detrimental attributes), to the potential/possible new product/service against the benchmarked previously under the subtitle of: Record the Current Ideality Index for each product/service.

Obviously if the new Ideality index is not significantly better reconsider the innovation.

Value Quotient Comparisons

When we have multiple possible/potential inventive solutions the Value Quotient comparison technique can be used to select the best.

See Figure 16 comparing current methods with envisaged potential new products (Quicken) using the Value Quotient Comparison method.

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Figure 16

The Risk Levels

Before embarking on huge capital investments or costs do a sanity check on the risk level of the innovation. It is a good choice to use Altshuller’s global acknowledged Levels of Innovation (Table 2 below) to assess the risk that needs to be managed.

Table 2

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Chapter 7: MoDeLLIng sUBstanCes anD energIes

Discover the Power of Su-Field Modelling as a Strategy Analysis Tool

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Su-Field Analysis

Su-field analysis is a TRIZ tool for modelling problems related to existing technological systems, and identifying a viable resolution strategy.

Su-field models are pictorial representations of the elements in the system and the field through which the elements interact.

The diagrams help to define the problem or contradiction that needs to be solved.

Some systems need modelled in order to understand the inequalities and inconsistencies that manifest as a problem.

Modelling the Anticipated Solution

• Object 1 is a substance referred to as a work-piece or S1.

• Subject 2 is a substance referred to as a tool or S2.

• S2 interacts with S1 through a field/force/energy or F.

Figure 17

• A system is modeled using triads as in Figure 17 above.

• As the tool is applied to the work-piece there is a flow of energy through the model.

The field/energy that flow can be perceived by humans as one of the following as defined in Figure 19 below.

Figure 18

The “Solution operator” arrow points towards solution model/s.

There are many types of fields that can be identified or applied as defined Table 3 below.

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Table 3

An example of a very simple Su-Field Model of a hammer hitting a nail into a plank causing the plank to split instead of penetrating the plank can be seen in Figure 20 below.

Figure 20

The Five Strategies to Solve Su-Field Problems

1. Replace field (F1) and substance (S2) with field (F2) and substance (S3)

2. Add a field (F2) and substance to (S2) to impact the tool (S2)

3. Add an additional field F2 and substance (S3) to impact the object (S1)

4. Add a third substance S3 that interfaces with S1 and S2

5. Consider an Additional Field between S1 and S2

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An Example

How can hydrodynamic shapes such as a hydrofoil be protected against intense cavitation caused by high speed movement through the water? Several protective coatings have been tried but with only limited success.

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Chapter 8: transforM toWarDs

the fUtUre

Nothing stays the same, every morning we are born again into a new day, either to waste away, or to be

transformed into something new.

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Long Term Growth

The main reasons for developing business strategies rooted in the Patterns of Evolution, the Technology and Business Evolution Trends are:

o Building on a sound strategies provided by proven patterns and trends instead of on ‘gut feelings’ or unfounded assumptions.

o Jumping to the right S-curves enabling significant business impact instead of pushing incremental improvements (see Figure 21 below).

o Enabling the solving of system contradictions and business conflicts that can be anticipated up front for the new evolution stages using also the 40 Inventive Principles of TRIZ.

o Enabling Rapid Innovation initiatives by applying the D4 Innovators Toolkit for future growth and transformations.

Incremental and Transformational S-Curves

The maturity state of the product/service may already be at the stage where the product/service has reached the end of its sustainable life and needs to be replaced by the next generation.

The birth of a new S-curve (a new life cycle) unveils new evolutionary resources that allow the system to evolve while gradually consuming these resources.

Figure 21

Figure 22 below illustrates the empirical researched logic behind these S-curve jumps.

Figure 22

The Current Product/Service

The Foreseen New Product/Service

The Foreseen Evolution Jump

The Current Evolution State

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Ambidextrous, Hybridization, and Crossbreeding Organisation Models

The Ambidextrous Organisation, see Figure 23 below, is the basic model to enable transformation towards the future.

Figure 23 - The Ambidextrous Organization

The main value of such a model is that it builds on the present successful products and services that will be the day-to-day management functions, while the new innovations for the future are dealt with as projects that will led to future organization transformations that will ensure long-term growth.

Although the Ambidextrous Model is a cornerstone towards long-term growth the growth strategy can be enhanced with:

• Hybridization projects – e.g. the hybridized car

• Cross-breeding projects that builds on other breakthrough innovations in a collaborative manner – e.g. different space projects.

See Figure 24 below.

Figure 24

The Dawning of New Horizons

If you hire people just because they can do a job, they’ll work for your money.

But if you hire people who believe what you believe, they’ll work with you with blood, sweat and tears. - Simon Sinek

oOo

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ATTACHMENT A The Eight Evolution Patterns with examples.

PATTERNS STAGES & EXAMPLES

Technology follows a life cycle of birth, growth, maturity, and decline

(S-curve)

Stage 1. A system does not yet exist, but important conditions for its emergence are being developed - A lot of manual attempts to fly

Stage 2. A new system appears due to high-level of invention, but development is slow - Wright Brothers' biplane

Stage 3. Society recognizes value of the new system - Military WWI biplane with speed 100 mph

Stage 4. Resources for the original system concept end - Wood and rope frame planes reach limit

Stage 5. Next generation of system emerges to replace original system - Metal frame monoplane

Stage 6. Some limited use of original system may coexist with new system - A limited use of biplanes still exists

Evolution towards Ideality

One of the main TRIZ concepts of the Ideality (Increased beneficial and reduced non-beneficial elements), is that a System becomes a subsystem of a general system

E.g. a microprocessor versus an individual transistor, the car increasing its useful effects while decreasing its harmful effects.

Uneven development of subsystems (resulting in contradictions)

Subsystems have different life cycle curves. Primitive subsystems held back development of the total system. A common mistake is to focus on the improvement of wrong subsystems. Developers focused on engine power instead of improving poor safety in old cars, making paper, spinning yarn, and weaving material.

Increasing dynamism and controllability

Early automobiles were controlled by engine speed, then manual gearbox, followed by automatic transmissions, and continuously variable transmissions. Methods of buying books, managing bank transactions.

Increasing complexity, followed by simplicity (through integration)

Stereo music systems have evolved from adding separate components such as speakers, AM/FM radio, cassette and CD players, etc., to integrate in "boom box." Modern computer suites include word-processor, electronic spreadsheet, database, and other programmes.

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Matching and mismatching of parts

Assemblies are originally made from uncoordinated parts, followed by integrated designs, culminated by parts whose characteristics are changeable upon demand E.g. Auto brakes.

Decreasing human involvement with increasing automation

Development of clothes washing from washboard to washing machine with ringer, to automatic washing machine with automatic bleach and softener dispensers

Robot-based conveyers, remote controls, power windows, etc.

Transition from macro-systems to microsystems & use of fields

At this stage we often use energy /information fields’ concept to achieve better performance or control.

Development of cooking systems from wood burning stove to gas ranges, to electric ranges, to microwave ovens, letters to e-mails.

Source: Extracted from Boris Zlotin and Alla Zusman, 2006. Patterns of Evolution: Recent Findings on Structure and Origin.

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ATTACHMENT B

The 35 Technology Evolution Trends

INTERFACE RELATED TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (E.G. technology interfaces between the Pilot and the physical Aircraft)

1. Mono-Bi-Poly (Similar) - Interface

2. Mono-Bi-Poly (Various) - Interface

3. Mono-Bi-Poly (Inc. Diff.) - Interface

4. Damping

5. Sense Interaction

6. Colour Interaction

7. Transparency

8. Customer Purchase Focus

9. Market Evolution

10. Design Point

11. Degrees of Freedom

12. Boundary Breakdown - Interface

13. Trimming

14. Controllability

15. Human Involvement

16. Design Methodology

17. Reducing Energy Conversions

SPACE RELATED TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (Like in the Nine Windows of the World)

1. Smart Materials

2. Space Segmentation

3. Surface Segmentation

4. Object Segmentation

5. Macro to Nano Scale - Space

6. Webs and Fibres

7. Decreasing Density

8. Asymmetry

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9. Boundary Breakdown - Interface

10. Geometric Evolution (Linear)

11. Geometric Evolution (Volume)

12. Dynamization

TIME RELATED TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (Like in the Nine Windows of the World)

1. Action Co-ordination

2. Rhythm Co-ordination

3. Non-Linearity

4. Mono-Bi-Poly (Similar) - Time

5. Mono-Bi-Poly (Various) - Time

6. Macro to Nano Scale – Time

Source: Extracted from Darrell Mann, 2002. Hands-on Systematic Innovation. Lazarus Press, UK.

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ATTACHMENT C The 44 Business Evolution Trends

INTERFACE RELATED BUSINESS TRENDS (E.G. interface events between the Supplier and the Clients)

1. Customer Expectations

2. Customer Purchase Focus

3. Self-Organisation Awareness

4. Knowledge

5. Competence

6. Process Thinking

7. System Robustness

8. Design Point

9. Mono-Bi-Poly (Similar) - Interface

10. Mono-Bi-Poly (Various) - Interface

11. Mono-Bi-Poly (Inc. Diff.) - Interface

12. Segmentation – Interface

13. Nesting – Down

14. Sense Interaction

15. Transparency

16. Connections

17. Asymmetry

18. Boundary Breakdown

19. Horizontal/Vertical Business Cycles

20. Interaction with Others

21. Listening/Communication

22. Market Research

23. Spiral Dynamics

24. Generations

SPACE RELATED BUSINESS TRENDS (Like in the Nine Windows of the World)

1. Mono-Bi-Poly (Similar) - Space

2. Mono-Bi-Poly (Various) - Space

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3. Mono-Bi-Poly (Inc. Diff.)) - Space

4. Segmentation – Space

5. Nesting - Space

6. Increasing Dimensionality

7. Degrees of Freedom

8. Dynamization

9. Human Involvement

10. Trimming

11. Nesting - Up

TIME RELATED BUSINESS TRENDS (Like in the Nine Windows of the World)

1. Action Co-ordination

2. Rhythm Co-ordination

3. Mono-Bi-Poly (Similar) - Time

4. Mono-Bi-Poly (Various) - Time

5. Segmentation – Time

6. Nesting – Time

7. Damping

8. Feedback & Control

9. Non-Linearity

Source: extracted from Darrell Mann, 2004. Hands-on Systematic Innovation: For Business and Management. Lazarus Press, UK.

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referenCes

1. Boris Zlotin and Alla Zusman, 2006. Patterns of Evolution: Recent Findings on Structure and Origin. www.ideationtriz.com

2. Boris Zlotin and Alla Zusman, 2003. General Scenarios of Technological Evolution: System’s Evolution beyond its Original S-curve. Ideation International Inc., Detroit.

3. Boris Zlotin and Alla Zusman, 2001. Directed Evolution: Philosophy, Theory and Practice. Ideation International Inc., Detroit.

4. Darrell Mann, 2002. Hands-on Systematic Innovation. Lazarus Press, UK.

5. Darrell Mann, 2004. Hands-on Systematic Innovation: For Business and Management. Lazarus Press, UK.

6. Darrell Mann, 2010. Matrix 2010. Lazarus Press, UK.

7. David Silverstein et al. 2009. The Innovator’s Toolkit. Wiley, USA.

8. Don E. Beck and Christopher C. Cowan, 1996. Spiral Dynamics: Mastering Values, Leadership, and Change. Blackwell Publishing, USA.

9. Gerritt M. Mes, 1964. Now Men and Tomorrow Men. Accessed April 2014 www.rhodesia.nl/NowMenandTomorrowMen_by_GM_Mes.pdf

10. James Gleick, 1987. Chaos: The Amazing Science of the Unpredictable. Vintage, UK.

11. John Lehrer, 2009. The Decisive Moment: How the Brain Makes Up its Mind. Canongate, UK.

12. Mark Buchanan, 2002. Small World: Uncovering nature’s hidden networks. Phoenix, UK.

13. Romilla Ready and Kate Burton, 2004. Neuro-linguistic Programming for Dummies. John Wiley and Sons, UK.

14. Tony Manning, 2001. Making Sense of Strategy. Zebra Press, Cape Town.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

The compiler spent most of his professional career in mentoring and coaching management where he was called on to find inventive solutions for complex problems, or to lead new ventures into unfamiliar terrains. (jac.spies@praesignis.co.za)

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