Burgundy INVESTMENT Perspective presentation-Apr-June 2015_01.pdf

7/26/2019 Burgundy INVESTMENT Perspective presentation-Apr-June 2015_01.pdf

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APRIL - JUNE, 2015

I N V E S T M E N T P E R S P E C T I V E S

V I E W S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S


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1

Indian equity markets continued their positive streak during the quarter

Markets remained volatile during the quarter due to key events like Union Budget, RBI policy action and monetary actions by

ECB and US Fed. The Q3 corporate results turned out to be a disappointment which further added to market volatility

Large Caps outperformed both Mid Caps and Small Caps during the quarter

Union Budget for FY 16 was presented in the back drop of huge expectations. The Union Budget was a step in the right

direction by boosting infrastructure investments, encouraging financial savings, taking measures to ease business and

maintaining fiscal credibility in the medium term We are positive on the equity markets on the back of reforms push agenda of the government, improving macro domestic

& external factors and likely re-rating of India

RBI also provided couple of off-cycle rate cuts (in Jan & Mar) of 25 bps each driven by strong disinflationary force and

expectation of better than reported fiscal consolidation

We maintain our outlook on Indian equity markets of Marginal Overweight. Investors can accumulate equities from a 3 to 5

year perspective

Bond yields could fall further in the medium to long term on the back of decline in inflation

Investors with an investment horizon of at least 18 to 24 months can look at investing in long term income, gilt and dynamic

bond funds

Short term income funds can be recommended for investors with an investment horizon of at least 12 to 18 months

We are positive from a medium to long term perspective with a pro-active inflation targeting RBI and a credible government

at the Centre

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

MARKET OVERVIEW


3/26

Sensex gained by 3.6% during 1stJanuary 2015 to 15thMarch 2015, the Mid Cap index gained by 3.4%, while Small Cap Index lost 0.13%

On the sector front, the gainers between 1stJanuary 2015 to 15thMarch 2015 were Healthcare (14.8%), Capital Goods (12.1%) & Realty(11.6%), while Metal (-10.7%), Oil &Gas (-4.9%) and Bankex (0.23%) were laggards

Among Sensex stocks Hindustan Unilever (24.2%), Sun Pharma (22.8%) & HDFC (18.2%) were the top performers during 1stJanuary 2015to 15thMarch 2015. While Tata Steel (-19.3%), Bajaj Auto (-17.6%) & Hindalco (-17%) were laggards

During 1stJanuary 2015 to 15thMarch 2015, FIIs were net buyers of equity to the tune of `44,433 Cr, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of`6,091 Cr and the domestic MFs bought `8,483 cr worth of equity

Equity markets continued to track both domestic and global cues during the quarter

As per the Economy Survey 2015, India is in a sweet spot due to lower deficits and high growth. It projected Indias GDP for FY 16 inthe range of 8.1-8.5%. As per IMF, India is poised to be the fastest growing economy in the world overtaking China

Inflation (CPI: 5.37%) was also within RBIs Jan 2016 CPI target of 6%

Globally, ECB started its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in March to arrest slide in growth and inflation in the Euro Zone. US Fed in itsrecent minutes signalled that it is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015

With the major event of Budget behind, the Govt is likely to take steps such as implementation of GST, plugging the subsidy leakages usingAdhaar and Direct Benefit Transfer, enhance industrialization etc. to steer the economy on growth path

SEBIs reforms to allow raising municipal bonds, conversion of bad loans into equity would help deepen the financial markets and attract moreforeign inflows in the country

The next event lined up for the markets is Q4FY15 results and guidance (if any) given by the corporates about future. We expect the Q4 resultsto be muted and ~20% CAGR growth over next 2 years

We maintain our outlook of Marginal Overweight on Indian markets. At current levels we recommend accumulating equities with a 3 to5 year investment perspective

Large Cap, Diversified equity and Mid and small cap mutual funds are advisable

EQUITY MARKET RECAP

EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

2

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE



4/26

COMPANY NAME

DISH TV LTD.

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.

`77

`

1,670

`96

`

2,000

CMP* TARGET PRICEHIGH CONVICTION STOCK IDEAS

MARKET CAPITALISATION VIEW

OVERALL VIEW ON EQUITY Marginal Overweight

*CMP is the Current Market Price as on 20th March 2015.High Conviction Stocks recommended with an Investment horizon of 12 months and above.

* Source: Axis Direct

LARGE CAP STOCKS

Marginal Overweight Marginal Overweight Marginal Overweight

MID-CAP STOCKS SMALL-CAP STOCKS

3

EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS



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AXIS EQUITY FUND

1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS

41.65 26.78

BIRLA SUN LIFE EQUITY FUND 60.70 36.39

FRANKLIN INDIA HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES FUND 84.49 46.40

HDFC CAPITAL BUILDER FUND 51.17 32.99

ICICI PRUDENTIAL DYNAMIC PLAN 38.64 29.02

KOTAK SELECT FOCUS FUND 59.55 35.38

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS FUND 60.25 34.90

FUND NAME

4*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.Data Source: ACE MF

41.79 24.44 18.03CNX 500

56.61 32.52 23.55CATEGORY*

BIRLA SUN LIFE LONG TERM ADVANTAGE FUND 57.57 34.88

23.39

26.85

35.45

24.29

21.47

27.20

RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES FUND 61.35 34.61 27.88

26.21

25.95

4

DIVERSIFIED EQUITY FUNDS PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)




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UTI EQUITY FUND 50.36 30.67

UTI OPPORTUNITIES FUND 43.74 27.47

AXIS FOCUSED 25 FUND


47.78 25.97

BIRLA SUNLIFE FRONTLINE EQUITY FUND 49.05 30.08

BIRLA SUNLIFE TOP 100 FUND 49.90 31.59

ICICI PRUDENTIAL FOCUSED BLUECHIP EQUITY FUND 43.98 28.54

ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 FUND 39.66 27.23

SBI BLUECHIP FUND 54.09 31.15

SBI MAGNUM EQUITY FUND 45.78 26.11

23.50

19.96

_

25.22

24.96

21.92

21.10

27.11

20.70

FUND NAME

33.18 21.57 16.78

43.80 26.77 20.73

CNX NIFTY

CATEGORY*

*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.Data Source: ACE MF

5

LARGE CAP EQUITY FUNDS



PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)


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AXIS MIDCAP FUND


79.54 42.40 34.60

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA FUND 81.96 46.70 35.54

FRANKLIN INDIA SMALLER COMPANIES FUND 90.22 54.84 41.59

HDFC SMALL AND MID-CAP FUND 48.42 31.23 23.62

ICICI PRUDENTIAL VALUE DISCOVERY FUND 81.06 45.16 33.83

SBI MAGNUM GLOBAL FUND - 1994 76.16 42.92 32.82

UTI MIDCAP FUND 88.65 55.52 37.55

FUND NAME

63.30 30.47 18.87CNX MIDCAP

80.92 45.05 32.41CATEGORY*


6


SMALL & MIDCAP EQUITY FUNDS




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FUND NAME

AXIS LONG TERM EQUITY FUND


47.21 35.64

FRANKLIN INDIA TAXSHIELD

ICICI PRUDENTIAL TAX PLAN

34.87 25.90

34.54 25.99

FUND NAME

41.79 24.44 18.03CNX 500

58.94 34.95 25.80CATEGORY*


70.70

33.39 26.00DSP BLACK ROCK TAX SAVER FUND 56.55

59.86

54.35

SBI MAGNUM TAXGAIN SCHEME 1993 33.64 25.1153.26

7

EQUITY LINKED SAVINGS SCHEMES (ELSS)





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FUND NAME

BIRLA SUN LIFE 95 FUND


28.91 22.42

HDFC BALANCED FUNDICICI PRUDENTIAL BALANCED FUND

32.66 22.7529.57 23.90

FUND NAME


49.85

29.47 22.30FRANKLIN INDIA BALANCED FUND 48.65

51.8546.06

SBI MAGNUM BALANCED FUND 30.56 25.8348.70

TATA BALANCED FUND 33.76 26.3859.46

27.61 17.56 15.06CRISIL BALANCE FUND INDEX

47.15 27.98 21.60CATEGORY*

8

BALANCED FUNDS





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Lower crude prices improve macros: limits CAD, eases subsidy burden and keeps inflation benign

9

DEBT AND MACROECONOMIC UPDATE


IIP growth in FY15 (YTD January) at 2.5% despite

Consumer Durables segment contracting 14%

Improvement in Basic Goods (especially electricity) and

Capital Goods support growth

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONINFLATION

RBI cuts off-cycle again: Repo rate lowered by

25 bps to 7.50%

CPI inflation though rises marginally in February, contained

at 5.4% YoY, Core inflation remains flat at 4.2%

Adoption of monetary policy framework with inflation at

4% +/-2%: Gradual decline over next 2 years, if realised,allows room for further cuts


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10



FISCAL DEFICIT

Passage of Insurance, Coal and Minerals related bills

sets Govts reforms ball rolling

Fiscal deficit target at 3.9% though higher than fiscal

consolidation path; higher capital expenditure and support

for reforms augurs well for Indias rating quality and rates

positives

Q3 CAD at 1.6% of GDP on increase in services

surplus and lower investment outflow

Lower cost of oil (net) imports matched by

increased gold imports in Q3. Increase in

banking capital drives BOP surplus

Low trade deficit for Jan and Feb at USD 7.3bn

and USD 6.8bn, respectively, suggests a marginal

CAD in Q3 given exports spike in March

CURRENT ACCOUNT

DEFICIT


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11



Excessively strong INR also likely to have played

a part in RBIs unscheduled easing

One measure sees INR as strong as in Apr 2013,

ahead of taper led sell-off

INR


13/26

Yields on benchmark 10 yr paper (8.40% 2024) found support at 7.65%-7.70% despite the surprise rate cut by RBI

PSU banks were seen selling paper, while there was limited interest from other traders in current year GOI carried out debt switch with FY16 paper on RBI balance sheet. Limited OMO sale stock (FY17 and 18 papers only just enough for debt switch)

increase longer run supply

GOI H1 issuance calendar is at Rs. 3.6 tn, with higher supply of long end paper. 40 year paper sale is envisioned

Further cuts of 25-50 bps are likely in FY16, subject to continued reforms, progress on high quality consolidation, pass- through of past rate cuts, a

supportive monsoon and stable external conditions

Liquidity is likely to remain neutral in Q4, as RBI FX intervention is matched by government cash absorption to meet fiscal targets, as well as by seasonal

currency leakages. Liquidity is expected to improve sharply in mid Q1 2015, requiring RBI to absorb this through OMO sales

Despite the higher fiscal deficit announced in the Budget, the net borrowings for FY16 remain largely flat. The demand- supply dynamics for G-Secs

looks favourable for FY 16

Yields may be range bound in the near term. However, we are positive from a medium to long term perspective with a pro-active inflation targeting

RBI and a credible government at the Centre

Investors who have an investment horizon of at least 18 to 24 months can look at investing in long term income and gilt funds and dynamic bond funds

Investors can look at short term income funds with an investment horizon of at least 12 to 18 months

Short term funds, via active fund management, can take advantage of current yields by investing in G-Secs, corp. bonds, CPs & CDs to gain from high

accruals & capital appreciation, if any

DEBT MARKET OUTLOOKAND RECOMMENDATIONS

1112




14/26

AXIS INCOME FUND


15.30 9.80 _

IDFC SUPER SAVER INCOME FUND - INVESTMENT PLAN 15.81 9.46 10.39

KOTAK MAHINDRA BOND UNIT SCHEME 99 15.76 8.29 9.40

SBI MAGNUM INCOME FUND 13.22 7.71 9.44

TATA INCOME FUND 13.35 9.74 10.31

UTI BOND FUND 16.59 9.27 10.08

FUND NAME

14.88CRISIL COMPOSITE BOND FUND INDEX

15.31

9.25 9.26

CATEGORY*


13

LONG-TERM INCOME FUNDS PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)

DEBT FUND RECOMMENDATIONS


9.01 9.70


15/26

BIRLA SUNLIFE GOVT. SECURITIES LONG TERM FUND


18.32

IDFC GOVERNMENT SECURITIES FUND - INVESTMENT PLAN 17.02 10.48 11.49

10.29

KOTAK MAHINDRA GILT UNIT SCHEME 98 - INVESTMENT PLAN 18.13 8.18 9.67

RELIANCE GILT SECURITIES FUND 19.05 10.45 11.11

SBI MAGNUM GILT FUND - LONG TERM 21.36 12.83 12.45

TATA GILT SECURITIES FUND 18.14 11.19 10.83

FUND NAME

14.11 6.34 7.50CRISIL 10 YEAR GILT INDEX

18.41 9.84 10.09CATEGORY*


9.61

14

LONG-TERM GILT FUNDS





16/26

BIRLA SUNLIFE DYNAMIC BOND FUND


15.40

HDFC HIGH INTEREST FUND 16.95 10.64 10.64

IDFC DYNAMIC BOND FUND 15.69 9.23 10.34

RELIANCE DYNAMIC BOND FUND 15.75 9.76 10.41

UTI DYNAMIC BOND FUND 14.82 11.07 10.88

FUND NAME

14.88 9.25 9.26CRISIL COMPOSITE BOND FUND INDEX

15.18 9.86 10.24CATEGORY*


10.95 10.79

15

DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS





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AXIS INCOME SAVER


21.42

BIRLA SUNLIFE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN II - WEALTH 25 PLAN 29.06 19.08

FRANKLIN INDIA MONTHLY INCOME PLAN 23.56 15.27

ICICI PRUDENTIAL MIP 25 25.16 15.75

IDFC MONTHLY INCOME PLAN 21.17 12.76

FUND NAME

17.43 10.95CRISIL MIP BLENDED INDEX

22.66 14.42CATEGORY*


14.19

15.73

13.60

13.82

12.88

RELIANCE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN 25.02 14.84 13.06

10.50

12.76

11.95

16

MIPS - AGGRESSIVE FUNDS





18/26

BIRLA SUNLIFE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN II - SAVINGS 5 PLAN


18.44

ICICI PRUDENTIAL MONTHLY INCOME PLAN 21.16 13.31

SBI MAGNUM INCOME PLAN 20.30 11.98

FUND NAME

17.43 10.95CRISIL MIP BLENDED INDEX

18.50 12.18CATEGORY*


12.35

11.98

12.09

10.50

11.10

11.39

17

MIPS - CONSERVATIVE FUNDS





19/26

9 MONTHS I YEAR 2 YEARS

AXIS FIXED INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FUND

HDFC SHORT TERM PLAN

TATA SHORT TERM BOND FUND

UTI SHORT TERM INCOME FUND

FUND NAME


CRISIL SHORT TERM BOND FUND INDEX

-

10.41

9.56

9.88

9.80

9.96

-

11.20

10.67

11.01

10.49

11.08

-

9.35

9.76

9.61

9.54

9.30CATEGORY*

18

SHORT-TERM INCOME FUNDS - AGGRESSIVE





20/26

9 MONTHS I YEAR 2 YEARS

AXIS SHORT TERM FUND

BIRLA SUNLIFE SHORT TERM FUND

HDFC SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES FUND

FUND NAME

CRISIL SHORT TERM BOND FUND INDEX

9.32

9.92

9.61

9.62

9.53

10.03

11.08

10.45

10.52

10.57

8.75

9.76

9.51

9.34

9.08CATEGORY*


19

SHORT-TERM INCOME FUNDS - CONSERVATIVE





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AXIS LIQUID FUND

1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS

8.43 8.46 8.65

BIRLA SUNLIFE CASH PLUS 8.43 8.45 8.63

HDFC LIQUID FUND 8.46 8.46 8.64

ICICI PRUDENTIAL LIQUID FUND 8.44 8.47 8.65

KOTAK FLOATER - SHORT TERM 8.49 8.48 8.66

RELIANCE LIQUID FUND - TREASURY PLAN 8.45 8.45 8.63

RELIANCE LIQUIDITY FUND 8.45 8.44 8.61

SBI PREMIER LIQUID FUND 8.43 8.41 8.59

UTI LIQUID FUND - CASH PLAN 8.39 8.43 8.61

FUND NAME

9.03 8.35 8.56CRISIL LIQUID FUND INDEX

8.22 8.22 8.39CATEGORY*


20


LIQUID FUNDS PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)



22/26


BIRLA SUNLIFE SAVINGS FUND


9.43 8.13 9.07

FRANKLIN INDIA ULTRA SHORT BOND FUND 10.46 9.11 9.57

ICICI PRUDENTIAL FLEXIBLE INCOME PLAN 9.81 8.37 9.02

9.68 7.86 8.41RELIANCE MONEY MANAGER FUND

9.39 8.29 8.76TATA FLOATER FUND

8.53 8.52 9.05UTI TREASURY ADVANTAGE FUND

FUND NAME


9.23 8.16 8.85CATEGORY*

21

ULTRA SHORT-TERM FUNDS - CONSERVATIVE





23/26


FRANKLIN INDIA LOW DURATION FUND


10.73 9.35 9.80

HDFC FLOATING RATE INCOME FUND - LONG TERM PLAN 7.45 8.06 8.79

FUND NAME


9.37 9.17 9.37CATEGORY*

22

ULTRA SHORT-TERM FUNDS - MODERATE





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GDP and Inflation in New Series

SPECIAL ECONOMIC UPDATE

23INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

INFLATION - CPI

CPI revision aligns consumption basket to latest

consumption pattern

Base year revised from 2010 to 2012 (based on

consumption pattern of 2012)

Weight of food in New Series lower at 45.9% (compared

to 47.6% in Old Series), Fuel & Light lower at 6.8% (9.5%

in OS) while that of Services is higher at 28.3% (26.3% in OS)

Resorts to Geometric mean instead of Arithmetic mean:Lowers volatility and biases price readings downwards

by capturing shift to consuming lower variety products

during periods of price spikes

Headline Inflation reading lower in New Series in Dec 14

at 4.3% YoY (compared to 4.9% in Old series) primarily

due to lower inflation in Housing segment

GDP revision aligns methodology to international standard

Base year revised to 2011-12 (New Series) from

previous 2004-05 (Old Series)

GDP growth now refers to growth in GDP (GVA +

Indirect taxes) at Market Prices compared to growth in

GVA (Gross Value Added) in Old Series

Absolute GDP revised lower in New Series for FY12 to

FY14, however, growth rates move up New Series has increased coverage of companies and

incorporation of results of latest surveys on

Consumption, Employment, Economic units, and Debt

FY15 growth in New Series at 7.4% (Advance

Estimate); Industry and Services more than offset

weak Agriculture growth

GDP


25/26

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DISCLAIMER



26/26

Axis Ban k rec omme nds tha t you independe ntly eva lua te par tic ula r invest ment s and str ate gie s and encour age s you to seek adv ice from a fin anc ial adv ise r reg ard ing the sui tab ili ty of suc h sec uri tie s and /or

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Burgundy INVESTMENT Perspective presentation-Apr-June 2015_01.pdf