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© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Building Better Energy Bridges:
Innovation Pathways of
the World Energy Scenarios
Energy Day 2019, Berlin, Germany
7 November 2019
Dr Angela Wilkinson
Secretary General and CEO, World Energy Council
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 2
• Established in 1923 – a registered charity
• The only truly global member network – actively engaged in nearly 90 countries
• A neutral platform – engaging diversity of whole energy system
• Impartial, but not passive
• Equipping and enabling energy transition leaders to deliver the benefits of sustainable energy for all
The World Energy Council
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
World Energy Issues Monitor: grounded reality check - global, regional, national energy leaders’ perspectives on the key challenges
World Energy Scenarios: bigger picture thinking, testing deeply held assumptions and reframing choices and options
Energy Policy Trilemma: integrated policy pathfinding to manage security, equity and sustainability through transition
Innovation Insights: moving whole systems innovation from the margins to the mainstream
Dynamic Resilience: better prepare for inevitable surprises and new shocks, adapt whole system to emerging and systemic risks
Engaging and equipping transformation
energy transition leaders with pragmatic
and flexible tools…
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Energy
Transition
Toolkit
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 4
Trade barriers
What is keeping European energy leaders awake at night?
US Policy
EU cohesion
China growth
Nuclear
Unconventionals
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Trilemma Ministerial RoundtableWorld Energy Congress (Sept, 2019 Abu-Dhabi)
Q1: What is the key priority for your country’s energy transition?
Q2: Where could your country get greatest value from using the Energy Trilemma toolkit?
What are policy makers doing?
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil 6
2019 Energy Trilemma Index: European profile
• European countries dominate the top 50 in global Index
• EU not on track to meet its climate neutrality ambitions
• Hidden costs of acceleration of renewables - reliability and short-term affordability issues.
• Technology-neutral policies and sector coupling are key to faster, deeper and social just energy transition.
• Great mix, increasing diversity and interconnections improve energy security and shift focus to dynamic resilience and customer centricity.
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Benchmarking
scenarios
World Energy
Scenarios 2019
European Regional
Scenarios
Global Nuclear
Perspectives
Designing for
Disruptions
• Three plausible, alternative archetypes: Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock
• Rigorously benchmarked & validated by signals from all regions.
• Refocus on 2040: what are the innovation turning points of global energy transition pathways?
The Grand Transition ScenariosNavigating energy transition in an era of disruption-as-usual
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Pre-determined factors
Critical uncertaintiesWhich energy futures are you prepared for?
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System innovation turning points – twists in transition
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Rate of Final Energy Consumption (Electricity as % Final Energy)
Renewable Electricity Generation
Source: The World Energy Council, Paul Scherrer Institute, Accenture Strategy
WES 2019 – Global Modelling Insights
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© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
1. There can be no successful energy transition without social involvement and public acceptance.
2. Digital energy competitiveness is key to a next era of regional prosperity and a double edged sword.
3. European energy systems face an investment cliff.
4. Integrated energy-industrial strategies and sector-coupling policies are pivotal to faster, deeper and affordable decarbonisation.
5. New capabilities for governing dynamic resilience are needed to enable reliable and sustainable energy transition.
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European Region Scenarios to 2040Selected deep-dive implications
Liberty
Good Society
National Identity
European social values
trilemma
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Europe carbon emission per capita
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
STRESS TEST
Stakeholders consider projected national Trilemma performance in each plausible scenario
CO-DESIGN
Generate new integrated options and sector-coupling strategies for progressing the EU Green Deal
Whole Energy System Transition Policy Coordination on EU Climate Imperative
SCENARIOS
SCALE UP
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WE Lab: convening transition impact partnerships
to close the gap
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Peak (per capita) demand
Peak value (commodities)
Peak trust
Peak planet
Peak globalization
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No peak in innovation: moving to a permanent state of disruption, electrification is not the only pathway.
There is no ideal energy mix: net zero is not going to be easy – innovation is not only or all about technology, social licence is key.
‘Customer centricity’ is a gamechanger, engage active end-users and adjacencies (esp. industrial).
Going beyond ‘basics’: big gaps in productive energy access everywhere.
Rethink security as dynamic resilience – make time to talk about cyber security and climate adaptation.
5 PEAKS IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTION
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World Energy Congress Abu Dhabi, Oct 2019
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© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
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