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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

1.(.Metho$o)og*

Correct and smooth comp2etion of term paper re:ires adherence to some r2es and

methodo2o-ies+ In order to condct the term paper" We ha0e decided to co22ect 0arios

t/pes of primar/ data and secondar/ data+ Di>erent form of statistica2 con9-rations

sch as ta.2e percenta-es rates and ratios has .een sed to ma4e the std/ meanin-f2

and rea2istic+

After co22ection" data ,as 9rst caref22/ scrtini?ed+ Then the data ,as or-ani?ed as

re:ired+ In order to ma4e the std/ e>ecti0e and e@cient" fo22o,in- t,o sorces of

data and information ha0e .een sed ,ide2/+

+!" Pri,!r* infor,!tion$!t!

The primar/ data ha0e .een co22ected ./ s from %an-2adesh %rea of 1tatistics+ Wea2so -et the primar/ information ./ o.ser0in- the departments of the %%1+ We se or

c2ass 2ectre as primar/ sorce of data+

+b" &econ$!r* Infor,!tion$!t!

The secondar/ information comes from anna2 report of the %%1" re2e0ant papers.oo4s

and periodica2s p.2ication and mana2 of di>erent departments+

#acroeconomics Pa-e '

Sources of Data

Primary Sources Secondary Sources

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C h a p t e r <

T h e i n t r o d c t o r / p a r t

C h a p t e r '

T h e o r e t i c a 2 O 0 e r 0 i e ,F n d i n - s a n d a n a 2 / s i sC h a p t e r BC h a p t e r !C o n c 2 s i o n a n d r e c o m m e n d a t i o n


1..R !tion!) of the t/$*

The std/ ,i22 he2p -et a c2ear 0ie, of the food and pop2ation -ro,th of %an-2adesh

and ana2/?e their re2ationship" trend in -ro,th and their e>ects on the econom/+ It ,i22

a2so pro0ide the potentia2 cases of 0ariations of the t,o -ro,ths" interre2ationship

.et,een them and e>ects on food spp2/ in re2ation to chan-e in pop2ation+ The report

estimates the ftre pro7ection of -ro,th rate of food and pop2ation and there./ ,i22

he2p to identif/ the possi.2e so2tions to cope ,ith the cha22en-e of pcomin- pop2ation

and food spp2/+

1.0.R eport org!ni!tion

The main part of the report is di0ided into for sections8

I+ Chapter

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CHAPTER-2

THEORETICA3 O4ER4IE5

2.1.Overvie6 of the foo$ pro$/ction of #!ng)!$eh

A-ric2tre .ased prodction is the sin-2e most important sector of food and

%an-2adeshs econom/ as ,e22+ O0er (J of the pop2ation is en-a-ed in a-ric2tre+

=J of the 2a.or force is en-a-ed in the crop sector ,hich represents a.ot =J of

the 0a2e addition in the a-ric2tra2 sector and more than (J of the pop2ation

depends on a-ric2tre for their 2i0e2ihoods+

1ince

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2.1.1.M!jor foo$ ite,

#a7or food items in %an-2adesh are rice" wheat" pulses" potato" vegetables and

sh+ These food items contri.te a2most J of the tota2 ca2orie and protein inta4e+

Rice and ,heat a2one contri.te to =

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+able, Per capita food a v ailability

The per capita a0ai2a.i2it/ of food -rain in %an-2adesh sho,s considera.2e impro0ement

drin- the recent /ears+ Accordin- to FP#U $'((B*" the per capita minimm food -rain

re:irement is !!-mscapitada/ $%%1" '(()*+ In '((((

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(

((

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2.1.(. I,pe$i,ent to the $o,etic pro$/ction

%an-2adesh has not .ecome independent /et to meet the h-e demand for food of her

0ast pop2ation ./ prodcin- domestica22/+ Cases are man/ that ,h/ this contr/ sti22

2a-s .ehind;

Po0ert/Re-iona2 0ariation

Techno2o-ica2 issesC2imate chan-e impact

2.1.. F/t/re projection of rice pro$/ction

1pp2/ and demand pro7ections are made for the /ears '(airs" the tota2 direct demand for rice in '(B( is pro7ected to .e in the ran-e of Bect prodction -ro,th nder crrent techno2o-ies+ In contrast" de9citpro7ections sho, a stead/ rise o0er time" reKectin- the sharp rise in demand nder the

hi-h pop2ation -ro,th scenario+

Pro7ected demand $in terms of rice* and prodction $.oth in terms of padd/ and rice*

from '(

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mi22ion tons in '(B(+ On the other hand" pro7ected prodction for the correspondin-

/ears are sho,n in the ta.2e .oth in terms of padd/ and rice+

ears8ppro6 pro:ected demand for rice

/million tons

Pro:ected Production

/million tons

In padd/ In rice"#11-1" '!+= B)+B '+

rapid pop2ation -ro,th in the post 1econd Wor2d War period de to impro0ements in

p.2ic hea2th and sharp redctions in morta2it/ from famine and certain diseases+ The

pop2ation has more than do.2ed since=(th/ears+ A.ot '= percent of the pop2ation

is r.an and =B percent rra2+

De to ,idespread po0ert/" chi2dren $!(J* and mothers $B(J* s>er from moderate to

se0ere ma2ntrition+ #a2ntrition is a2so a reason for the death of near2/ a :arter of

chi2dren nder 90e+

The %an-2adesh pop2ation in mid&'((= ,as arond

depends on assmptions a.ot rates of -ro,th since the ad7sted censs 9-re of

#acroeconomics Pa-e )

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• The /ear that %an-2adesh reaches rep2acement ferti2it/ is not as critica2 2o,erin-

ferti2it/ to 2ess than rep2acement+ Other Asian contries ha0e accomp2ished this+

• The nm.er of chi2dren .orn each /ear is no, sta.i2i?ed at s2i-ht2/ 2ess than !

mi22ion+ A-e of marria-e has not increased in %an-2adesh as it has in other Asian

contries+

• The e2der2/ $S( /ears* ,i22 -ro, in pop2ation from = to mi22ion this centr/"

and this ,i22 ma4e man/ demands and di>erent demands on the hea2th s/stem+

• There has .een a ma7or redction in o0era22 nm.ers of chi2d deaths o0er the 2ast

three decades+ Part of this redction is de to redced ferti2it/" and part is de to

chi2d&sr0i0a2 inter0entions+

2.2.1. Pop/)!tion !t ! g)!nce

"#11

A-e dependenc/ ratio8 o2d $J of ,or4in-&a-e pop2ation* =+

Pop2ation8 fema2e $J of tota2* !)+!(Pop2ation -ro,th $anna2 J*

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Pop2ation of %an-2adesh is increasin- at a rate of t,o mi22ion $

199#291-19992"###

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'((' '((B '((! '(( '(( '((= '(( '(() '(ast ten years growth rate6

The contr/ has made si-ni9cant strides in 2o,erin- its pop2ation -ro,th rates from an

a0era-e of '+= percent in the

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and res2tant -ro,th rate is ?ero*+ In medim 0ariant pro7ection" stats of stationar/

pop2ation in %an-2adesh is 2i4e2/ to .e achie0ed arond '( and thereafter" nm.er of

deaths ,i22 eceed nm.er of .irths i+e+ mins -ro,th rate ,i22 .e-in ,hich ,i22

e0enta22/ dece2erate the contr/s pop2ation as is the case ,ith Rssia" German/ and

some of the Eropean contries no,+ The dece2eration process $i+e+ mins&-ro,th rate*

in %an-2adesh sha22 start accordin- to 0ariant&'after '((" and ./ this time" pop2ationsha22 -ro, pto '!(mi22ion+ A -reat dea2 of pop2ation momentm is comin- from 2o,

income fami2ies" sch as poor" 2tra poor and other 2o,er income -rops ,ho to-ether

comprise (percent of the societ/+ These are the peop2e amon- ,hom infant morta2it/

and materna2 morta2it/ rates are the hi-hest+ Tota2 ferti2it/ rate is t,ice as mch of the

pper" midd2e and hi-h income -rops+ The/ are the ones ,ho ha0e 0er/ 2itt2e access to

edcation .e/ond primar/ hea2th care ser0ices and other .enefits ,hich -o0ernment

and societ/ sa22/ offer to the indi0ida2s+ 1o if the -oa2 of rep2acement 2e0e2 ferti2it/ is

to .e achie0ed an/ time in the net decade" or po2icies" pro-rammes and resorces

sho2d .e directed to,ards their ,e2fare+

A more important :estion is ,hat the ftre pop2ation -ro,th ,i22 .e+ Unti2 the United

Nations Pop2ation Di0ision $UNPD* re2eased the '((! re0ision of pop2ation pro7ections

for a22 the contries of the ,or2d" there ,as a -enera2 a-reement that %an-2adesh ,o2d

reach '

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&i

gure, 8ppro6 population of 5angladesh in "#$#

2.2.'. C!/e of incre!ing pop/)!tion

%an-2adesh has decreased the tota2 ferti2it/ rate si-ni9cant2/ since independence in

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• Womens p2ace in societ/ & ,hi2e a ,oman ma/ desire to se .irth contro2" she

ma/ .e for.idden to do so ./ her hs.and+

• A stron- c2tra2 preference for .o/s ma/ 2ead some ,omen to ha0e more

chi2dren than the/ ,o2d 2i4e+ Women ,ho on2/ ha0e -ir2s ma/ .e shnned ./

their fami2ies" di0orced" or a.andoned+ The hs.and ma/ ta4e a second ,ifehopin- to ha0e a son+

• I-norance of .irth contro2 methods

• I-norance of .asic .io2o-/ and the Vfacts of 2ife+V

• Di@c2t/ accessin- .irth contro2 for some parts of the rra2 pop2ation

%an-2adesh has come a 2on- ,a/ in terms of contro22in- pop2ation+ arios modern

.irth contro2 methods are readi2/ a0ai2a.2e in shops and are often pro0ided ,ithot cost

./ NGOs at area c2inics+

2.2.(. Effect of incre!ing pop/)!tion on $e,!n$ for foo$

Potentia2 increase in pop2ation -ro,th and its impact on rice prodcti0it/" a.o0e a22

food secrit/" has .een a ma7or concern in recent /ears+ Pop2ation -ro,th rate in

%an-2adesh is t,o mi22ion peop2e per /ear and the pop2ation ,i22 reach '!B mi22ion

$appro+* ./ '((" -oin- ./ the crrent trend+ %an-2adesh ,i22 re:ire more than +(

mi22ion tons of rice per /ear to feed its peop2e ./ the /ear '((+ In '((=&'((+ #ore

than + core peop2e ,o2d .e depri0ed of the rice re:irement ./ the /ear '((" ,hich

is more than !J compared to the tota2 pop2ation in '((&(= o,in- to the com.ined

e>ects of increasin- temperatre and pop2ation$BJ de to pop2ation -ro,th a2one*+

In the comin- decades" a-ric2tre of %an-2adesh ,i22 face a -reat cha22en-e to feed its

-ro,in- pop2ation as the food demand ,i22 increase ,ith increasin- pop2ation+

%an-2adesh" as a ,ho2e" sti22 has a 0er/ 2o, 2e0e2 of a0era-e ntrition+ #an/ hoseho2ds

and indi0ida2s can not ha0e a .a2anced diet" e0en in -ood prodction /ears+ Accordin-

to the Wor2d %an4" approimate2/ BB mi22ion of the ord an a0era-e dai2/ inta4e of more than

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A2most a22 of the

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CHAPTER 9 '

ANA3:&I& AND 7INDIN8&

'.

Tren$ in net foo$ $e,!n$e$ !n$ /pp)ie$ for the peop)e

The pop2ation of %an-2adesh in

$RiceQWheat* and reached '+

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(

(+D

<

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1988-89 106.80 17681.92 14650.49 3031.43

1989-90 108.90 18029.60 16449.04 1580.56

1990-91 111.00 18377.28 16615.89 1761.39

1991-92 113.00 18708.40 17085.40 1623.0

1992-93 115.00 19039.52 17263.12 1776.4

1993-94 117.00 19370.65 16965.68 2404.971994-95 119.00 19701.77 16010.03 3691.74

1995-96 122.10 20215.01 16877.61 3337.4

1996-97 124.30 20579.24 18015.31 2563.93

1997-98 126.50 20943.48 18329.30 2615.18

1998-99 128.10 21208.37 19361.75 1846.62

1999-00 129.80 21489.83 22129.49 (639.66)

2000-01 131.50 21771.28 23791.35 (2020.07)

2001-02 133.45 22094.13 23058.52 (964.39)

2002-03 135.00 22350.75 23788.38 (1437.63)

2003-04 136.20 22549.42 24477.93 (1928.51)2004-05 138.05 22855.71 23420.69 (564.98)

2005-06 139.10 23029.55 24569.27 (1539.72)

2010 148.10 24519.60 27587.04 (3067.42)

'. .

Tren$ in fi))ing the foo$ g!p o/t% I,port !n$ 7oo$ Ai$

To meet the h-e demand for foods" -o0ernment has to depend on t,o primar/ sorces

of a0ai2a.i2it/ of foods .esides domestic prodction8 Imports and food aids respecti0e2/+

%oth the sorces are hi-h2i-hted .e2o,+

'.1.1 I,port of ,!jor foo$ ite,%

Imports of food -rain in %an-2adesh ,ere dominated ./ p.2ic sectorin

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food grain

Rice Whea

t

Tota2

food

-rain

Rice Wheat Rice Whea

t

Tota2

food

-rain

Ric

e

Whea

t

B=+'

'((((

do,n,ard trend in food aid+ Therefore" this share has decreased to 2ess than BJ of

tota2 imports of food -rain ,ith ,heat accontin- for )J of the tota2 food aid+

#acroeconomics Pa-e '(

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Period &ood aid /### (6 tons &ood aid /0

Rice Wheat Tota2 food

-rain

Rice Wheat

'((((

'((()

B+

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Model Summary

Mode

l

R R

Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error

of the

Estimate

Change Statistics

R Square

Change

F

Change

df1 df2 Sig. F

Change

1 .46a

.21! ".1! .#2141 .21! .$ 1 2 .$

a. %redictors& 'Constant() %o*ulation gro+th

The coe@cient of corre2ation descri.es the stren-th of the re2ationship of t,o sets of

ratio sca2ed 0aria.2es+ It sho,s" ho, ,e22 one 0aria.2e can .e ep2ained ./ another+ It

can assme an/ 0a2e from &

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Redistri.tin- prchasin- po,er and resorces to,ard those ,ho are

ndernorishedV can a22e0iate hn-erInter0ention in mar4ets" p.2ic distri.tion" direct sa2es" increase in import

and prchase from 2oca2 mar4ets for the maintenance of nationa2 food

secrit/ stoc4s ,hich aims to increase ,e2fare of the poor+Possi.2e measrements $%irth contro2 pro-ram" fami2/ p2annin-" redcin-

ear2/ marria-e" raisin- mass a,areness etc * sho2d .e ta4en to chec4

pop2ation -ro,thHome&stead food prodction sho2d .e increased+Crop scientists sho2d p2ace more emphasis on the de0e2opment of heat and

dro-ht resistance 0arieties and the feasi.i2it/ of manip2ation thro-h

modern -enetic techni:es+Ana2/?e the otpt -ap for food prodction and estimate the re:ired Land"

La.or and Capita2 to miti-ate the -ap+

I4.2.Conc)/ion

Impacts of pop2ation chan-e on food prodction and food secrit/ are -2o.a2 concerns"

.t it is more so for a contr/ 2i4e %an-2adesh+ A-ric2tre is nder the -n main2/ de

to increasin- demand for food from the -ro,in- pop2ation+ The prospects of -2o.a2

c2imate chan-e ma4e this pro.2em a priorit/ for %an-2adesh+ Economic -ro,th rate in

ftre ,i22 .e hampered+ C2ti0ation area has not considera.2/ chan-ed in the 2ast fe,

decades in re2ation to pop2ation chan-e+

Domestic food prodction has an important ro2e to p2a/ for food secrit/ in %an-2adesh+

A2tho-h the acrea-e of food -rain prodction shrin4a-e" .t prodction of food -rain

increases de to increase in per acre /ie2d and .etter mana-ement of post&har0est

2osses+

1staina.2e increase of prodction for food secrit/ ,i22 re:ire e>orts to enhance the

capacit/ of the food prodction s/stem to adapt to pop2ation chan-e+ Technica2

options for adaptation and miti-ation are a0ai2a.2e" ,hich sho2d .e proper2/ app2ied in

the a-ric2tra2 sector+ Po2ic/ spport to research and de0e2opment to de0e2op and

transfer appropriate and e@cient techno2o-ies" ,i22 .e 0ita2 for the rea2i?ation of sch

measres for sstaina.2e food prodction+ A.o0e a22 p.2ic a,areness of the impact of

increasin- pop2ation on the a-ric2tra2 prodction deser0es consideration as a

priorit/+

#acroeconomics Pa-e 'B

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3eferences,

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