Major Snowstorm Requirements Major Snowstorm Requirements Incorporating Heavy Snow Event (HSE) Incorporating Heavy Snow Event (HSE) Status in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Status in the Philadelphia Metropolitan

AreaArea

Widespread (Greater Than 50% Coverage) Snowstorm Widespread (Greater Than 50% Coverage) Snowstorm in the Delaware Valley (southeast PA, southern NJ away in the Delaware Valley (southeast PA, southern NJ away

from the coastal regions, northern DE, and northeast from the coastal regions, northern DE, and northeast MD) of MD) of 10 inches or more in a 24 hour period10 inches or more in a 24 hour period

Blizzard of 1983Blizzard of 1983

Widespread (Greater Than 50% Coverage) Widespread (Greater Than 50% Coverage) Snowstorm in the Delaware Valley of 10 inches or Snowstorm in the Delaware Valley of 10 inches or

moremore

February 11-12, 2006February 11-12, 2006 Jan 22-23, 2005Jan 22-23, 2005

Thank YouVery special thanks to two prominent figures in the meteorological

business—Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz and David Tolleris. Without them, this work would NOT be possible. I hold these gentlemen in

high esteem and admire their work and expertise immensely. NBC-10 Chief Meteorologist Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz initiated the idea

of a major snowstorm decision tree for the eastern seaboard (checklist) in the 1980’s. Meteorologist David Tolleris expanded on

the original prototype and has applied such checklists to his forecasts. The professional feedback I received from them during this research endeavor was greatly appreciated. Their continued support and collaboration in reference to ongoing meteorological

issues is priceless and I am extremely grateful for their contributions. Additionally, thanks also to Larry Cosgrove, Dr. John Lee, John

Merritt, Paul Knight, Fred Gadomski, John Skrypek, Bill Conlin, Paul Kocin, James T. Moore, Henry Margusity, Don Sutherland,

RaleighWx, Norman Wes Junker, SSC, HM, OSU2, NWS-Mount Holly, Rob Guarino, Kathy Orr, James T. Moore, Paul Kocin, Louis

Uccellini, HM, Bill Conlin, and Joe Bastardi, for their peer review and feedback.

Storm ChecklistStorm Checklist• State of the NAO• 50-50 Low• EPO• PNA Index• QBO• Polar Vortex• Character of 500 hPa Trough/Vorticity Maximum• Character of Surface High Pressure/Low Level Cold Air• Character of Surface Low Pressure• 700 hPa Low Strength and Track• 850 hPa Low Strength and Track• Other Factors to Consider: Snowstorm Dynamics (Heavy

Banded Snow), Local Climatology (ENSO etc.), Teleconnections, MJO, Southeast Ridge, Ocean Temperatures, Computer Models, Weekend Rule, and Moon Phases

Storm Checklist (Notable Sites)Storm Checklist (Notable Sites)A COMPREHENSIVE WINTER WEATHER FORECAST CHECKLIST

AN OPERATIONAL INGREDIENTS BAES METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING WINTER SEASON MID-LATITUDE PRECIPITATION

DT SNOW FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

METEOROLOGY EDUCATION AND TRAINING SITE (COMET PROGRAM)

CLIMATE INDICIES DATA (GOOD SITE FOR CURRENT AND PAST TELECONNECTION DATA)