BEYOND THE MIDPOINT - Disabled Peoples · 2012. 3. 15. · ACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS BEYOND THE MIDPOINT United Nations Development Programme United Nations Development

ACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

BEYOND THE MIDPOINT

United Nations Development Programme

United Nations Development ProgrammeOne United Nations PlazaNew York NY 10017 USATel (212) 906-5000 Fax (212) 906-5001wwwundporg


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This forward-looking MDG review assesses where emphasis should be placed over the next several years to support partners to meet the agreed Millennium Development Goals

Sales E09IIIB38 ISBN 978-92-1-126271-1

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Beyond the Midpoint Achieving the Millennium Development Goals

January 2010

UNDP is the UNs global development network advocating forchange and connecting countries to knowledge experienceand resources to help people build a better life The views and recommendations expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of theUnited Nations or UNDP

Copyright copy UNDP 2010All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of America

United Nations Development ProgrammeOne United Nations Plaza New York NY 10017 USA

Design Suazion Inc (NY suazioncom)Production Consolidated Graphics (OH cgxcom)



BEYOND THEMIDPOINT


UN PhotoMartine Perret

In 2000 I was one of the heads of government whotravelled to the United Nations General Assembly inNew York and signed the Millennium DeclarationThat document enshrined the Millennium DevelopmentGoals as the international communityrsquos collectivecommitment to create a better tomorrow for billions ofpeople prioritizing efforts to reduce poverty and hungerempower women increase access to essential serviceslike education healthcare clean water and sanitationand forge strong global partnerships for development It is in all our interests that these goals are met

We cannot achieve a more equitable and sustainable

world when one billion people are hungry or whentheir lives are endangered by easily preventable health risks when a lack of education limits thepoorrsquos potential or stifles innovation when womenare not able to participate as equal members insociety and when our natural resources becomedepleted and degraded There are encouraging signs that our world is

moving in the right direction towards a number ofthe MDGs Eighty eight per cent of children in the developing world as a whole were enrolled inprimary school in 2007 up from 83 per cent in 2000

FOREWORD

UN PhotoFardin Waez

The deaths of children under five have declinedsteadily worldwide too Such global achievements however can obscure

the lack of traction for significant populations ndash both within countries and across regions Based oncurrent trends many countries will not meet anumber of the targets In addition developing countries overall still face

high levels of maternal mortality These havedeclined by only 6 per cent since 1990 comparedwith the goal of a 75 per cent reduction by 2015 Recent challenges including the economic crisis

food and fuel price volatility the ongoing climatechallenge and now even a flu pandemic takentogether threaten to halt or even reverse the advanceswhich have been made With an eye towards the General Assemblyrsquos

high-level review of advances towards the MDGs inSeptember next year UNDP has prepared thisforward-looking report ldquoBeyond the Midpoint Achieving the Millennium Development Goalsrdquo to assess what it will take to accelerate progresstowards the goals around the world Thirty country-level assessments and extensive

consultations with stakeholders were undertaken todiscern the factors which influence MDG progress ina country and to understand what has worked whathas not and why The report found that there aregenerally four key areas which shape MDG achieve-ment at the country level policy choices and theircoherence governance and capacity deficits fiscalconstraints and political will

As each country context is unique the reportdoes not present universal solutions It suggests that

tailored to the specific countries growth could bemade more inclusive by for example policies whichnurture the sectors on which the poor depend for theirlivelihood especially agriculture and rural develop-ment as well as through efforts to generate decentemployment especially for youth and the rural poor

By showing that hard-fought human develop-ment gains are vulnerable to reversals from threatssuch as economic downturns commodity pricevolatility conflict and natural disasters the reportalso underscores that for development results to betruly sustainable it is important to reduce vulnerabilityto shocks This means that we cannot be contentwith pursuing only quick wins but must also take onthe less visible but no less important work ofgrowing and strengthening the national and localcapacities which will make nations societies andcommunities more resilient over the longer term

This is no time for business-as-usual approachesto development All actors - governments UNagencies civil society and the private sector - mustredouble efforts to achieve the MDGs by 2015 It is UNDPrsquos hope that this report will contribute to making that happen

Helen ClarkAdministrator UNDP

CONTENTS

Acronyms and Abbreviations vi

Acknowledgements vii

Executive Summary viii

Introduction 1

Chapter One The Commitment to MDG Achievements 6From Global Commitments to National Ownership 8Progress towards MDG Achievements The Evidence 12Progress is Neither Linear or Monotonic 15Sustaining MDG Progress Recent Global Trends 18

Chapter Two The Development Policy Environment and MDG Achievements 22Economic Growth Inequality and Poverty Reduction 24Broad-based and Inclusive Growth for Accelerated MDG Achievement 33Reducing Hunger and Food Insecurity 35Sustaining Poverty Reduction Achievements Employment Creation and Inclusive Growth 42

Chapter Three Underscoring Democratic Governance 46From Goals to Outcomes 48Promoting Accountability Transparency and Responsiveness of Institutions 50Inclusive Participation 52Delivering the MDGs at the Sub-National and Local Level 54Capacity Conundrums 56Partnerships and Politics 57

Chapter Four Fragile Situations Sturdy Commitments The Special Challenges of MDG Achievement in Conflict-Affected Countries 58The Impact of Violent Conflict on Human Development 60The Economic Costs 66The Challenges of MDG Achievements in Post-Conflict Situations 70Some Implications for Support of MDGs in Post-Conflict Contexts 75

Chapter Five The Fiscal Space Challenge and Financing for MDG Achievements 76Financing the MDGs 78Aid Effectiveness 79Measuring the MDG Financing Gap 80Fiscal Space 82What Role for Fiscal Policy 87

Chapter Six Moving Forward Accelerating Momentum for MDG Achievements 88

Country Profiles 96

Annexes 128

References 150

BoxesBox 11 MDGs and Citizen Engagement 11Box 12 Miningrsquos Contribution to Growth in Mongolia 20Box 13 Legal Empowerment of the Poor as a Climate Change Mitigation Tool 21Box 21 Government Role in Promoting Inclusive Growth in Botswana 32Box 22 Albaniarsquos Regional Development Strategy 34Box 23 Jamaicarsquos Conditional Cash Transfer Programme 39Box 24 Project Zero Hunger in Brazil 40Box 25 Implications of the Food Crisis on Poverty and Hunger 41Box 26 India National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) 45Box 31 Albania and MDG 9 ndash Establish and Strengthen a Good Governance Process 48Box 32 Malawirsquos Freedom of Information Act 50Box 33 Midday Meal Scheme in India 52Box 34 Community Score Cards 53Box 35 Social Audits and MDG 2 54Box 36 Building and Reinventing Decentralized Governance in Indonesia 55Box 37 BRAC and Universal Primary Education Bangladesh 56Box 38 Leadership for HIV in Botswana 57Box 41 Legal Empowerment of the Poor- Land Disputes in Post-Conflict Northern Uganda 64Box 42 Conflict in Timor-Leste 65Box 43 Sierra Leonersquos Civil Society 72Box 44 Challenges Successes and the Way Forward in Post-Conflict Nepal 74Box 45 Targeting Disadvantaged Groups in Colombia 75Box 51 Coordinating Aid in Ethiopia 80Box 52 The Fiscal Space Diamond 83

FiguresFigure 11 Reduce by Two Thirds the Under-5 Mortality Rate Middle East and North Africa 15Figure 12 Share of People Living on Less than $125 per Day () Latin America 15Figure 13 Immunization in Indonesia (1990-2007) 16Figure 14 Net Enrolment Rate and Completion Rate in Grades 1-5 16Figure 15 Immunization Trends in Ethiopia 17Figure 16 The Surge In Commodity Prices ndash 2001-2007 (100 in 2001) 18Figure 21 Relationship between Growth and Poverty Reduction 26Figure 22 Improvements in Inequality Lead to Higher Rates of Poverty Reduction 27Figure 23 Initial Level of Inequality and Growth 27Figure 41 Maternal Mortality Ratio And Skilled Attendance At Birth In Selected Countries 61Figure 42 Life Expectancy at Birth in Selected Countries 62Figure 43 Sources of Refugees December 2006 63Figure 44 GDP per Capita Growth in Selected Conflict-Affected Countries 67Figure 45 Change in GDP per Capita in Selected Conflict-Affected Countries 68Figure 51 Public Investment by Developing Region 1980-2006 78Figure 52 Expenditure Trends in Bhutan (Functional Categories) 85

TablesTable 1 30 Countries Assessed 3Table 11 National Processes and Institutional Frameworks for the MDGs 8Table 12 MDG Progress Score Card 13Table 13 Projected Poverty Rates in 2015 ( of the Population) 14Table 14 MDG 4 (Reduce Child Mortality) Indicator Trends in Ethiopia 17Table 21 Growth Poverty and Inequality 1995-2007 25Table 22 Countries with Low and Falling Inequality 28Table 23 Countries with High and Increasing Inequality 28Table 24 Poverty and Inequality in Least Developed Countries 29Table 25 Poverty and Inequality in Fuel Exporting Countries 30Table 26 Percent Change in Oil Exports Production and Domestic Consumption 31Table 27 Poverty and Inequality in Mineral and Iron Ore Export Dependent Economies 31Table 28 Growth Poverty Reduction and Unemployment 43Table 29 Unemployment Rates World and Regions () 44Table 41 The Challenges of MDGs in The Post-Conflict Context 70Table 51 Aid Dependency 79Table 52 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness 81

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

ADP - Annual Development Plan

AfDB - African Development Bank

ASE - Accao Social Escolar

ASER - Annual Status of Education Report

BRAC - Bangladesh RuralAdvancement Committee

BRIDGE - Building and ReinventingDecentralized Governance

CCs - Commune Councils

CCT - Conditional Cash Transfer

CIS - Commonwealth ofIndependent States

CONGOMA - Council for Non-Govern-mental Organizations in Malawi

CONPES - Consejo Nacional dePoliacutetica Econoacutemica y Social

CPIA - Country Policy andInstitutional Assessment

CSC - Community Score Cards

DAC - Development AssistanceCommittee

EPWP - Expanded PublicWorks Programme

EU - European Union

FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization

FAP - Financial Assistance Policy

G8 - Group of 8 industrialized countries

G20 - Group of 20 Finance Ministersand Central Bank Governors

GDP - Gross Domestic Product

GPRS - Growth and PovertyReduction Strategy

HIPC - Heavily Indebted Poor Countries

IAASTD - International Assessment ofAgriculture Knowledge Scienceand Technology for Development

ICDS - Integrated ChildDevelopment Services

IDPs - Internally Displaced Persons

IFPRI - International Food PolicyResearch Institute

ILO - International Labour Organization

IMF - International Monetary Fund

LDCs - Least Developed Countries

LIFDC - Low Income FoodDeficit Countries

MDGs - Millennium Development Goals

MDGR - Millennium DevelopmentGoals Report

MGDS - Malawi Growth andDevelopment Strategy

MampE - Monitoring and Evaluation

NA - Not Available

NCERT - National Council of EducationResearch and Training

NDPC - National DevelopmentPlanning Commission

NDS - National Development Strategy

NER - Net Enrolment Rate

NGO - Non-Governmental Organization

NREGA - National Rural EmploymentGuarantee Programme

ODA - Official Development Assistance

OECD - Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development

ONDH - Observatoire National deDevelopment Humain

PATH - Programme for AdvancementThrough Health and Education

PFM - Peoplersquos Forum on the MDGs

PFM - Public Financial Management

PFZ - Project Fome Zero (Zero Hunger)

PIU - Parallel Implementation Unit

PPP - Purchasing Power Parity

PROTECT MDGs - PromotingProcurementTransparency andEfficiency to Achieve the MDGs

PRS - Poverty Reduction Strategy

PRSP - Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

RampD - Research and Development

RTI - Right to Information

SME - Small and Medium Enterprises

TINP - Tamil Nadu IntegratedNutrition Programme

UNCTAD - United Nations Conferenceon Trade and Development

UNDG - United NationsDevelopment Group

UNDP - United NationsDevelopment Programme

UNHCR - United Nations HighCommissioner for Refugees

UNICEF - United Nations Childrenrsquos Fund

UXO - Unexploded Ordinance

WDI - World Development Indicators

WDR - World Development Report

WFP - World Food Programme

WFS - World Food Summit

WHO -World Health Organization

WTO -World Trade Organization

vi

ACRONYMSAND ABBREVIATIONS

This Report is the result of extensive collaboration andconsultation across UNDP ndash including regional bureauscountry offices and all practices in headquarters Theauthor and team leader for the preparation of the reportwas Anuradha Seth Senior Policy Adviser Bureaufor Development Policy Olav Kjoslashrven AssistantAdministrator of UNDP and Director of the Bureaufor Development Policy and Douglas Gardner DeputyAssistant Administrator of UNDP and Deputy Directorof the Bureau for Development Policy provided invalu-able support and leadership for this initiative

The assistance of regional bureaus was invaluablefor selecting the countries to be assessed and for theirvaluable insights on initial drafts of the Report Thesupport of Amat Al Alim Alsoswa Regional BureauDirector for the Arab States Ajay Chhibber RegionalBureau Director for Asia Pacific Tegegnework GettuRegional Bureau Director for Africa Rebeca GrynspanRegional Bureau Director for Latin America and theCaribbean and Kori Udovicki Regional Bureau Directorfor Europe and the CIS are duly acknowledged

Abdoulaye Mar Dieye Pedro Conceicao and SelimJahan provided essential feedback and their contributionsare gratefully acknowledged Special thanks to SamuelChoritz and Cecille Reyes of the Executive Office andSarah Renner of BDP for supporting the finalization ofthis publication

As senior consultants the guidance and inputs ofJohn Ohiorhenuan and Sanjay Reddy proved invaluableJohn Ohiorhenuan is the author of chapter four of thereport The editor of the report was Sid Kane and theresearch associate JessicaMurray Special thanks to Jessica forher outstanding contribution as principal researchassociate and for her attention to detail

Special thanks to the team of consultants whoprepared background papers Franka Braun RobertEngland Rahul Lahoti and Biru Paul and to colleaguesfrom across BDP who facilitated coordinated andprovided important inputs Diana Alarcon Tuya

Altangerel Elisabeth Clemens Niamh Collier GarryConille Noha El-Mikawy Anna Falth Kayla KeenanPatrick Keuleers Sujala Pant Renata Rubian KarinSanti Susanne Schmidt and Gregory WoodsworthSpecial thanks also to the regional MDG advisorswho facilitated the country assessments and providedinvaluable support advice and encouragementMahmood Ayub Luis Lopez-Calva Parviz FartashShashikant Nair and Ernest Rwamucyo

The report would not have been possible if not forthe contributions made by the team of global policyadvisors regional programme advisors country economistsand programme officers who coordinated and authoredthe MDG country assessments Khalid Abu-IsmailAmarakoon Bandara Emmanuel Buendia OstenChulu Siaka Coulibaly Jacek Cukrowski Degol HailuGirma Hailu Mari Huseby Usman Iftikhar ErkinbekKasybekov Sebastian Levine Ritu Mathur DomingosMazivila Vladimir Mikhalev KAM Morshed AdibNehmeh Stefano Pettinato Gonzalo Pizarro AbdoulieSireh-Jallow and Carol Flore-Smereczniak

Special thanks to the directors in the Bureau forDevelopment Policy for their trenchant commentsand insights especially with respect to assessing theMDG challenges and to identifying the way forwardfor UNDP Winnie Byanyima Geraldine Fraser-Molekati Selim Jahan Jeffrey OrsquoMalley Salil Shettyand Kanni Wignaraja

To all the participants at the field consultation inBratislava Alia Al-Dalli Zena Ali-Ahmad Deirdre BoydBoubou Camara Lorenzo Jimenez de Luis KamilKamaluddeen Jo Scheuer Norimasa Shimomura andJens Wandel Your inputs and importantly perspectivefrom the field was invaluable

Last but not least special thanks for the operationssupport provided by Martha Barrientos Allan GayaneloJason Pronyk Nurana Sadikhova and AngkanaSanthiprechachit as well as the publication designand format by Julia Dudnik Stern

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS vii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

UNPhotoFredNoy

This forward-looking MDG reviewassesses where emphasis should be placed over thenext several years to support partners to meetthe agreed Millennium Development Goals


We are now beyond the mid-point between adoptionof the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) andthe target date of 2015 Despite progress towardsachievement of some of the targets numerous Goalsand targets are likely to be missed unless additionalstrengthened or corrective action is taken urgentlyIn light of a rapidly changing development

environment and given a limited time frame forachieving the MDG agenda UNDP initiated aforward-looking MDG review to assess whereemphasis should be placed over the next several yearsto support partners to meet the agreed MillenniumDevelopment Goals The principal objectives of thisreview were to assess the factors that shape MDGprogress in a country identify the bottlenecks andconstraints that have slowed progress and assesshow UNDP can best support its developmentpartners in their efforts to make the achievementof the MDGs a reality

Building on the findings of 30 countryMDG assessments the Report also highlights keyinterventions including policies programmesand democratic governance practices that haveimproved the capabilities living conditions andwell-being of the poor And it identifies criticalareas where capacity strengthening and policycoherence is required for progress towards theMDGs to be accelerated

Chapter one considers the processes by whichthe MDGs a global development agenda that hasnow become part of the policy discourse in manydeveloping countries inform both national povertyreduction strategies and national developmentframeworks Civil society organizations have played akey role in this regard demonstrating that achieve-ment of the MDGs is fundamentally related to the

achievement of greater political space and voice forthose affected by poverty and exclusion By linkingthe relevant goals with the national and localsubstantive agenda and by enabling deeper dialogueand a participatory process for citizensrsquo involvementand engagement civil society organizations haveplayed a key role in making the MDGs relevantto the country context Importantly nationalownership of the MDG agenda will be needed toensure that progress is made and that developmentresults are sustainable

Notwithstanding these national processesevidence on MDG achievements indicates anenormous variation among countries Progress ishighly uneven across countries even within a regionfor the different Goals Some countries appear tohave made steady gains towards a number of MDGtargets such as income poverty primary educationand gender parity in education whereas othershave actually reversed course on some targets evenwhile making progress on others And most countriesappear to have made insufficient progress towardsachieving key sanitation and maternal mortality targets

It is widely agreed that despite significantadvances at current trends most developingcountries are projected not to meet many MDGtargets On this point the UN the World Bank andNGOs are in relative agreement

Recent global developments such as theeconomic and financial crisis and the soaring pricesof food and oil also threaten to erode previous gainsreminding us in stark terms that in an increasinglyinterdependent world no country is immune fromexternal shocks and that sustaining MDG achieve-ments will require countries to adopt risk-copingand risk-management strategies to prevent setbacks

x

The enormous diversity among countrieswith respect toMDG performancereflects the unique conditions opportunitiesand constraints of each country

or at least mitigate any negative effectsChapter two takes as its point of departure the

view that the current economic crisis and volatility ofglobal markets have exacerbated existing developmentchallenges and exposed the underlying vulnerabilitiesof many developing countries These vulnerabilitiestogether with a countryrsquos own domestic conditionsare more fundamental to determining MDGoutcomes than only external shocks How a countryarticulates its development priorities how it reflectsthese priorities in policies and programmes and howit leverages its opportunities in the global system arefundamental in charting and shaping MDG progressat the national level

At the macro level evidence indicates that thereis much to be gained in terms of poverty reductionoutcomes by pursuing broad-based inclusive growthpolicies Countries with low or falling levels ofinequality experienced higher rates of economicgrowth and poverty reduction on average comparedto countries with high or increasing levels ofinequality indicating that broadly spread growthwhere the poor are included in the benefits andopportunities provided by the growth process is akey factor in achieving accelerated developmentoutcomes This is most meaningfully done whengrowth raises the incomes of the poor mdash byabsorbing them into employment opportunities andraising their real income Countries most disadvan-taged in the growth inequality and poverty nexusappeared to be the LDCs reliant on agricultureIn the absence of broad-based growth it is not

anomalous to see that growth can bypass the pooraltogether Chronic poverty and persistent exclusioncan co-exist with high growth And poverty canremain more pronounced in some regions and amongcertain vulnerable and excluded groups Addressingpoverty would require policies and programmes thatare targeted towards disadvantaged groups andregions The Report highlights the different kindsof programmes and policies that countries haveadopted to overcome inequities address exclusionand promote more broad-based shared growth

The Report argues that a focus on broad-basedgrowth is important not just from the perspective ofachieving the goal of income poverty reductionHigher growth often results in increased governmentrevenues which can enable greater spending on

public services that are critical for MDG progressincluding education healthcare and public infrastruc-ture for potable water and sanitation While increasedspending may not automatically translate intoimproved performance on MDG indicators publicresources can be used to accelerate MDG achieve-ment if spent on effective and targeted programmes

The design of sector policies and the selection ofappropriate programmes are also critical for shapingMDG progress For instance despite food securitybeing a key development objective of many countriesthe agricultural sector has been ignored for decadesand not surprisingly hunger prevalence remains achallenge in many countries and across regions TheReport makes the point that programme selectionits congruence and coherence with sector policyobjectives play a significant role in shaping MDGprogress A layered programme response is neededto adequately address MDG gaps

Finally chapter two emphasizes the point thatin an increasingly interdependent world domesticpolicy space is itself subject to global forces and rulesgoverning international trade and finance For thisreason policy coherence especially with respect totrade and finance is also required at the global levelto support MDG outcomes at the national level

Chapter three underscores the critical role ofdemocratic governance for the achievement of MDGoutcomes By emphasizing the means by whichdevelopment goals are translated into outcomesdemocratic governance addresses the ldquohowrdquo ndash theprocesses institutions and systems that will yieldcollectively acceptable results The values and principlesof democratic governance allow people in particularthe poor and marginalized to have a say in howthey are governed in how decisions are made andimplemented in how diverging opinions are meditatedand conflicting interests reconciled in accordancewith the rule of law As such democratic governanceis seen as essential for creating an enabling environ-ment for MDG progress and for imbuing nationaland local institutions with systems processes andvalues that respect peoplersquos human rights andfundamental freedoms an environment where thepoor can hold their leaders to account and areprotected from arbitrary action in their lives bygovernment private institutions and other forcesand where governing institutions are responsiveand accountable

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS xi


As indicated by the country assessmentsgovernance deficits are a critical factor in shapingMDG progress largely because many of the servicesneeded for MDG achievements are publiclyprovisioned such as education healthcarewater access and sanitation Governance deficitsare also closely linked to weaknesses in policy andprogramme implementation Moreover in manycountries capacity constraints in governance furtherweaken implementation capacities of critical institu-tions Accelerated progress towards MDG achieve-ments will hence require bolstering the governanceand implementation capacities in countries

The focus of chapter four is on the specialcircumstances facing crisis and post-conflict countriesas they attempt to make progress towards the MDGsIt is argued that most of the problems faced by post-conflict countries appear similar to those of manypoor countries that have avoided conflict Howeverwar related destruction and distortions make thedevelopment challenges more onerous for post-conflict countries Yet the idea of seeking to reach

the MDG targets can be a powerful mobilizationvehicle for post-conflict recovery in so far as theprocess of their achievement does no harm in termsof conflict risk Three specific measures can becritical in accelerating progress towards the MDGsin post-conflict settings reducing horizontal inequal-ities ensuring conflict sensitivity in MDG program-ming and adopting a disaggregated approach forMDG assessments

Chapter five makes the case that from thevery outset the issue of securing finance for MDGinvestments remains a top priority for the interna-tional development community Accelerated progresstowards MDG achievements will require a substan-tial scaling up of public expenditures in mostdeveloping countries from current levels In theearly years much effort was expended on mobilizingadditional ODA in support of the MDGs especiallyfor aid-dependant countries Increasingly howeverthe focus has been expanding to include otherdimensions of fiscal space in an effort to mobilizeadditional resources for MDG programming

xii

UNPhotoTim

McKulka

The country assessments point as well to theimportance of expanding fiscal space focusing onmechanisms to enhance domestic revenue mobiliza-tion Importantly for aid-dependant countriespractices governing aid effectiveness are also highlyimportant for shaping MDG outcomes Securingfinance for scaling up public investments thoughcan be no guarantee that MDG outcomes will besecured this also requires prioritizing and allocatingresources in ways that will be most conducive forsecuring MDG outcomes

To sum up the enormous diversity amongcountries with respect to MDG performance reflectsthe unique conditions opportunities and constraintsof each country Country by country progresstowards MDG achievements has been shaped bythree key factors

Policy choices and programme coherence thatgovern how a country participates in the globaleconomy and whether domestic policies contributeto broad-based inclusive growth both at themacroeconomic and sector level

Governance and capacity deficits that underminethe creation of an enabling environment neededfor securing MDG progress

Fiscal constraints both domestic and ODA anddevelopment assistance practices that limit thecapacity to scale up public investments necessaryfor MDG outcomes

All these factors are essential for shaping MDGoutcomes Policies without effective institutions toimplement them are meaningless Policies andinstitutions without resources are ineffective Even asthese factors are critical for shaping MDG outcomesin individual countries they are by themselves

insufficient if there is no political will or nationalownership of the MDG agenda Indeed time andagain it has been noted that if there is one overridinglesson for the achievement of development results ndashand for the sustainability of such ndash it is theimportance of national ownership

Accelerated progress towards MDG achieve-ments will thus need to be tailored to reflect acountryrsquos specific constraints opportunities andconditions No single blueprint will do

Evidence from 30 MDG country assessmentsindicates clearly that when there is political willand wide-ranging engagement with the nationalMDG agenda when policy choices cohere withthe objectives of achieving poverty reduction anddevelopment outcomes when national processesand institutions are imbued with the practices ofdemocratic governance and are backed by adequatefunctional capacities and resources developmentprogress and MDG outcomes are very possibleto achieve

Based on the evidence presented in this ReportUNDP assistance could be more strategic andfocused Tactically the focus should be on assistingcountries to unlock the constraints and bottlenecksthat prevent them from accelerating progress towardsMDG achievements Moving forward it isrecommended that in order to best support acceler-ated MDG achievements at the national levelUNDP should

Catalyze Partnerships for SynchronizedNational Action

In light of the fact that the MDGs are now part ofthe national planning frameworks in many developingcountries UNDP support must stand firmly behindand in support of national processes and ownership

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS xiii

The evidence is clearWithout effective andaccountable institutions systems processes and political will

economic gains are not automatically translated intodevelopment outcomes or registered asMDGachievements


of the MDG agenda MDG achievements willrequire working with politicians civil societypartners civil servants other UN agencies anddevelopment partners among others Through theappropriate brokering of ideas and partnerships atthe national level UNDP can play a catalytic rolein supporting MDG achievements As describedin the Secretary-Generalrsquos Road Map for theImplementation of the MDGs a powerful but lesserknown purpose of the MDGs was to mobilizeldquopeople powerrdquo in the fight against poverty andinequality And as we take stock of how much theMDGs have contributed to reducing poverty illiter-acy and disease it is important to recognize that theability to galvanize millions of people across theworld to call their governments to account on theirMDG promises will be a critical deciding factor forsustaining MDG achievements

Employ Democratic Governance Practicesto Improve Implementation Deficits

The evidence is clear Without effective and account-able institutions systems processes and politicalwill economic gains are not automatically translatedinto development outcomes or registered as MDGachievements Democratic governance deficitsincluding absence of rule of law legal empowermentframeworks for the poor political stability andaccountability as well as pervasive corruptionundermine both national institutions and nationalimplementation capacities In post-conflict andtransition countries these deficits are more acuteGovernance deficits have been linked to poor servicedelivery due to a lack of coordination and designflaws a lack of flexibility in the implementationand design of programmes an inconsistent approachto the design of delivery mechanisms and weakmonitoring and insufficient outcome evaluationswhich if done correctly can contribute to moreeffective service delivery Governance is thus thelink that translates the Goals into developmentoutcomes Supporting and strengthening democraticgovernance practices and building accountable andresponsive institutions will be key for sustainingMDG achievements

Building on its considerable experience andextensive support for strengthening democraticgovernance processes and capacities at the country

level UNDP can play a critical role in identifyingand responding to governance deficits of nationalprogrammes that are most closely linked to theMDGs In this context the sharing of knowledgeand experience instruments and lessons of what hasworked in the past can be important for fosteringand promoting democratic governance in support ofMDG achievements

Bolster Policy Options Policy Coherenceand Programme Congruence forMDG Breakthroughs

A large body of evidence accounting for MDGachievements points to the importance of domesticpolicy choices in promoting accelerated progresstowards MDG targets Broad-based and inclusivegrowth policies as well as programmes and policiesto redress growing inequalities will be critical not onlyfor making MDG progress but also for sustaining it

This Report has pointed to the importance ofgrowth in the agricultural sector as essential forpromoting poverty reduction Agricultural growthdepends on investments in rural infrastructuremarkets finance and in research and extensionHowever investments in these areas have been slowglobally Discriminatory trade policies and decliningODA to this sector have not helped and newchallenges have emerged including depleted naturalresources Policies to combat hunger and foodsecurity must focus on the rural areas and includesupport for small-scale farmers increasing security ofland tenure promoting access to land for the landlesscreating rural institutions expanding financingoptions and removing prevailing legal and socialbiases against women working in agriculture Layeredsafety net programmes can be important program-matic measures for addressing hunger and foodsecurity as well as other MDG-related challenges

Fundamentally the poor share the benefits ofgrowth when their incomes are increased throughquality employment opportunities There is a needfor policies targeting employment creation among themost vulnerable including women youth and therural poor Programmatic responses should go beyondskill retraining and income generation and livelihoodprogrammes and should emphasize job creation inboth the public and private sectors Large-scaleemployment programmes can be effective mechanisms

xiv

and should be integrated as a part of any sustainablestrategy for poverty reduction

Sector strategies and programmatic interventionsincluding linkages between macroeconomic andsector strategies also need to be more sharplyaligned with and in support of MDG achievementsAt the national level UNDP can play a key role inpromoting the learning and adaptation of practicesand of policy and programmatic interventions thathave been known to have demonstrable outcomes Asnoted in this Report good practices typically requireseveral layers of interventions and a considerableamount of adaptation to local contexts before theyare seen as being successful UNDP must supportnational counterparts to strengthen capacities toadopt adapt and scale up such practices

The need for policy coherence is not just adomestic matter As highlighted by this Reportglobal developments as evidenced by the recenteconomic and financial crisis the volatility ofcommodity prices and by challenges related to climatechange all have implications for the ability ofcountries to make and sustain MDG progress UNDPshould advocate that risk mitigation measuresespecially in the areas of commodity risk manage-ment weather insurance and health insurancebe adopted at national levels and that developmentpartners are mobilized to build the capacities neededfor this to be achieved Further UNDP should playa more pro-active role in the global policy arena tochampion for policy coherence and especially in thoseareas critical to MDG outcomes including foodsecurity global trade agreements and the global

financial architecture Agricultural trade barrierscommodity price volatility and restricted financingmechanisms all tilt the balance against makingprogress and sustaining MDG achievements

Mobilize and Prioritize Funding forMDG Investments

A serious constraint facing many developingcountries especially the least developed is the fiscalconstraint Funding limitations affect the ability ofcountries to scale up public expenditures required forinvesting in MDG outcomes For aid-dependantcountries higher levels of ODA in the mediumterm and enhanced aid effectiveness are necessaryconditions for accelerating MDG progressSustaining MDG achievements however will requirea greater reliance on domestic resources to financedevelopment over the longer term At the globallevel UNDP should continue to advocate for enhancedODA in support of the MDGs as reflected throughthe Gleneagles Scenarios that have been prepared forseveral countries Simultaneously UNDP shouldstrengthen national capacities to mobilize additionaldomestic revenues and play a more instrumental rolein advocating for aid effectiveness in support ofnational MDG agendas

Finally MDG progress is neither linear normonotonic Hard-fought gains can be reversedduring a crisis or after the withdrawal of financialsupport for MDG-related programmes Ensuringthat strategies promote sustainable MDG progressis just as important as MDG achievement itself

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS xv

MDG progress is neither linear nor monotonicHard-fought gains can be reversed during a crisis

or after the withdrawal of financial supportforMDG-related programmes

INTRODUCTION

UNPhotoTim

McKulka

Achieving the MDGs is nowall the more challenging because thedevelopment environment is morethreatened now than it has beenat any time in the recent past


In September 2000 world leaders adopted the UNMillennium Declaration committing their nations toa new global partnership to reduce extreme povertyand expand the choices of the poor A set of time-bound and measurable goals and targets forcombating poverty hunger disease illiteracy environ-mental degradation and discrimination againstwomen ndash the Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) ndash were placed at the heart of the globaldevelopment agendaIn 2005 the World Summit reaffirmed the

centrality of the MDGs to the international develop-ment agenda Nations both developing and donoralike made a strong and unambiguous commitmentto achieve the Goals by 2015 Specific commitmentsby the international community included anadditional $50 billion a year by 2010 for fightingpoverty (G8 Summit in Gleneagles) and a commit-ment by all developing countries to adopt nationalplans for achieving the Goals More recently at the2008 High Level MDG Event governmentscommitted an additional $16 billion to supportspecific initiatives

Still more than one billion people ndash one-sixth ofthe worlds population ndash live in extreme poverty andlack the safe water proper nutrition health care andsocial services needed for a healthy life in its mostbasic form In many of the poorest countries lifeexpectancy is half of what it is in the high-incomeworld ndash 40 years instead of 80 years The consequencesof this level of poverty reach far beyond the afflictedsocieties Poverty and inequality are important causesof violent conflict civil war and state failures A worldwith extreme poverty is a world of insecurity

Further we are now beyond the mid-pointbetween the adoption of the Goals and the target

date of 2015 Important progress has been made andthere are many notable successes that offer encour-agement In all but two regions primary schoolenrolment is at least 90 percent about 80 percentof children in developing countries now receive ameasles vaccine and 16 billion people have gainedaccess to safe drinking water since 1990 But despitesignificant achievements towards some targets muchmore needs to be done Numerous Goals and targetsare likely to be missed without additional strength-ened or corrective actions that are urgently neededAt the current rate of progress the proportion ofpeople living on less than a dollar a day is unlikely tobe reduced by half in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2015a quarter of all children in developing countries arestill undernourished and 100 countries will fail toachieve gender parity in both primary and secondaryschool enrolment

Achieving the MDGs is now all the morechallenging because the development environment ismore threatened now than it has been at any time inthe recent past A global economic slowdown a foodsecurity crisis of uncertain magnitude and durationthe development impact of climate change alldirectly affect efforts to reduce poverty and to attainthe MDGs more broadly And for many developingcountries there is a risk that important advancesmade can quickly unravel

At this juncture then it is time not only to takestock but also to take note As the world prepares tomark 2010 with a summit focused on reinvigoratinginternational attention on the MDGs and with lessthan six years left to 2015 no effort should be sparedto build the momentum needed to realize the humandevelopment outcomes called for by the MillenniumDeclaration and embodied in the MDGs

2

Wide-ranging field consultations were held to identify whyprogress has been so unevenwhat is needed for progress to beaccelerated and how development partners can best supportcountries to achieve these important development outcomes

In December 2001 the UN Secretary-Generalrequested that the UNDP Administrator in hiscapacity as the Chair of the UN DevelopmentGroup to act as campaign manager and scorekeeperfor the MDGs within the United Nations systemAnd over the past eight years at every stage theUnited Nations system has aligned itself behindnational governments in support of reaching theMDGs by 2015 This commitment of the organiza-tion has been reflected in the UNDP Multi-YearFunding Frameworks and the Strategic Plan (2008-2011) which highlights the ldquourgent need foradditional efforts by the international community tomake the achievement of the MDGs a reality by2015 for all developing countries but particularly forthe least-developed land-locked developing countriesand small-island developing statesrdquo

UNDP support for the MDGs has operated atglobal regional and country levels and the focus ofsupport has evolved reflecting a deeper wider andmore active engagement with the MDGs over timeFrom 2001 to 2005 much of UNDP support centeredon its role as scorekeeper and champion of the MDGagenda Since 2005 programmatic support haswidened to include among other initiatives

MDG-Based PlanningMDG-based diagnos-tics reporting and monitoring ndash including MDGneeds assessments and poverty-consistentmacroeconomic and fiscal frameworks ndash havebeen supported with the objective of wideningpolicy options and choices to strengthen nationalcapacities to achieve the MDGs

Implementation of MDG-Focused InitiativesThese initiatives span a number of MDG areasand programmes including HIV mitigationwater governance energy access for the poor andconditional cash transfers that function asmechanisms for reducing hunger and malnutri-tion Such efforts have been tailored to respondto a range of development challenges and areoften unique to country situations and localdevelopment priorities

MDGAdvocacyAt global regional and countrylevels UNDP has sought to build support forthe MDG agenda through advocacy campaignsand has worked with partners to mobilize thecommitments and capabilities of broad segmentsof society to build awareness of the Goals

In light of a rapidly changing developmentenvironment and given a limited time frame for

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 3

Table 1 30 Countries Assessed

Africa Asia Pacific Arab States Europe amp CIS Latin America ampthe Caribbean

BotswanaEthiopiaGhanaMalawi

MozambiqueTanzaniaTogo

SenegalSierra Leone

BangladeshCambodiaIndia

IndonesiaLao PDRMongoliaNepal

Timor-LesteVanuatu

BahrainIraq

MoroccoSyriaYemen

AlbaniaArmeniaKyrgyzstanTajikistan

ColombiaEl SalvadorJamaica

1 Funded through the Global ProgrammeMampE


achieving the MDG agenda UNDP initiated aforward looking MDG review to assess whereemphasis should be placed over the next several yearsin order to better support partners and their effortsto meet the Millennium Development Goals Theprincipal purpose of this review is to assess thefactors that shape MDG progress in a country toidentify the bottlenecks and constraints that haveslowed this progress and to assess how UNDP cansupport its development partners in their efforts torealize these basic and essential development aspira-tions While it is clear that UNDP and the broaderUN system cannot carry the full weight of alleviatingmany of these bottlenecks it is also true thatachieving MDG breakthroughs over the next sixyears will require that support from all developmentpartners ndash and UNDP in particular ndash be much morestrategic and effectiveThis Report builds on the findings of 30 country

level MDG assessments conducted from March toMay 2009 (Table 1) and documents the key findingsof these forward looking reviews Wide-ranging fieldconsultations with government counterparts civilsociety and development partners were held toidentify why progress towards MDG achievementshas been so uneven what is needed for progress to beaccelerated and how development partners such asUNDP can best support countries to achieve theseimportant development outcomes (Annex 1)

Information not specifically cited otherwise in thisreport are from the MDG Country Assessments

The assessments support the findings of earlierstudies discussed in this report which indicate thatnational progress on the MDGs is fundamentallyshaped by a countryrsquos position in the global economyby its own policies ndash whether they are congruent withthe pursuit of broad-based inclusive growth ndash and bysector programmes as they relate to achievement ofthe different Goals MDG progress is also linked togood governance practices and institutional capacitieswhich are essential to create the enabling environ-ment necessary for implementing needed policies andprogrammes and for securing MDG achievementsAlso emerging as a key factor is whether adequatefiscal resources are available ndash including bothdomestic and Overseas Development Assistance(ODA) ndash and whether they are being channeledeffectively in support of these development priorities

It is clear then that approaching 2015 acceler-ated progress towards MDG achievements willdepend on identifying and unlocking the constraintsand bottlenecks in each of these areas And they areall important Policies without effective institutionsto implement them are meaningless Policies andinstitutions without resources are ineffective Theenormous diversity among countries even within thesame region with respect to their specific conditionsinstitutions and governance structures implies thataccelerated progress on the MDGs will depend onthe unique conditions opportunities and constraintsof each country No single blueprint will do

This Report goes beyond just a diagnostics ofcountry specific constraints and bottlenecks It alsohighlights those policies sector programmes anddemocratic governance practices that have haddemonstrable impacts on improving the capabilitiesand wellbeing of the poor And it identifies key areaswhere capacity strengthening and policy coherence isrequired if progress towards MDG achievements isto be accelerated

Finally as recent global upheavals have shown sostarkly gains can always be reversed Making progresstowards MDG achievements does not imply that itwill always be sustained Emerging developmentchallenges bring new risks such as climate changewhich can have a direct impact on agriculturalpatterns and on water and land resources Measures

4

UNPhotoMarieFrechon

to accelerate progress need to be accompanied bymeasures to protect gains already realized In theend MDG achievements will only be meaningful ifthey are sustained in the world beyond 2015 and ifthe human development objectives that they embodyare realized in those countries and for those peoplefor whom the Millennium Declaration was intended

The Report is organized as followsChapter one examines national commitment to

the MDGs and how they have been reflected in thenational development agendas of countries It identi-fies how the process of tailoring MDG targets toreflect national conditions challenges and priorities isan important first step towards national ownership ofthe MDG agenda ndash and that if there is one overrid-ing lesson guiding the achievement of these develop-ment goals and their sustainability it is theimportance of national ownership

Chapter two argues that the enormous diversityamong countries with respect to MDG achievementsis explained at least in part by domestic conditions aswell as by the policy choices made by governmentsHowever in an increasingly interdependent worlddomestic policy choices are themselves circumscribedby and subject to changes in the global system oftrade and finance

Chapter three underscores the importance ofdemocratic governance practices in translatingdevelopmental objectives into concrete and tangiblerealities for the poor The chapter identifiesgovernance and institutional practices that havesupported accelerated progress towards MDGachievements but cautions that unless backed byadequate functional capacities democraticgovernance practices alone will unlikely lead to rapidor enduring development gains

Chapter four focuses specifically on thechallenges faced by crisis and post-conflict countriesas they attempt to address the MDGs It highlightsthe fact that working towards the MDGs can becompatible with pursuing the pressing challenges ofreconstruction rehabilitation and resettlement Infact the idea of actively seeking to reach specifiedtargets can be a powerful and mobilizing force forpost-conflict recovery ndash as long as the design ofMDG programmes does no harm in terms ofconflict risk

Chapter five examines the issue of securing andprioritizing finance for MDG investments Not onlyare available finances insufficient for scaling up publicexpenditures they are not necessarily directed in waysthat prioritize the investments needed for acceleratedMDG progressThe chapter also notes that it is essentialto consider how domestic sources of finance inaddition to ODA can be enhanced and mobilizedto prioritize and finance MDG achievements

Chapter six summarizes the evidence and issuesdiscussed in the preceding chapters and recommendshow UNDP can best support countries to makeaccelerated progress towards achieving the MDGsGoing forward it suggests that UNDP galvanize itsenergies and resources to support countries to


Employ Democratic Governance Practices toImprove Implementation Deficits

Bolster and Champion Policy Options andCoherence in Support of MDG Breakthroughs



In the endMDG achievements will only be meaningfulif they are sustained in the world beyond 2015 and ifthe human development objectives that they embodyare realized in those countries and for those people

for whom theMillenniumDeclaration was intended

From Global Commitmentsto National Ownership

Progress towards MDG AchievementsThe Evidence

Progress is Neither Linear or Monotonic

Sustaining MDG ProgressRecent Global Trends

CHAPTER ONE

THE COMMITMENTTOMDG ACHIEVEMENTS

UNPhotoMartinePerret

If there has been a singulardefining achievement of the MDGs it isthat they are by now firmly at the core ofthe international development agenda


FROM GLOBALCOMMITMENTS TONATIONAL OWNERSHIPIf there has been a singular defining achievementof the MDGs it is that they are by now firmly atthe core of the international development agendaDevelopment partners international NGOsMDG Challenge Accounts and Trust Funds arelay of global summits and forums have all champi-oned and supported accelerated progress towardsMDG achievements2

More importantly though less than six yearsfrom the target date of 2015 these Goals are now atthe heart of the national agendas of many developingcountries Parliamentary MDG StandingCommittees in Mongolia and Bangladesh nationalco-ordination committees to oversee implementationof the MDGs in Sierra Leone and Kyrgyzstan publicaction and civil society advocacy from Albania toIndia and from Ghana to Mozambique and nationalplanning priorities explicitly focused on securingMDG outcomes in Brazil and Nepalndash all of thesedevelopments testify to the catalytic role that these

Goals have played in national poverty reduction anddevelopment since they were first introduced in 2001Table 11 indicates that of the 30 countries surveyedeach had some form of national process or institutionalframework in place that was concerned with formulatingimplementing andor monitoring programmes andpolicies in support of MDG achievements

Eight Goals eighteen targets and 48 indicatorsthese were the initial set of time-bound Goalsadopted by the global community in 2001 Threetargets and 12 indicators were added to the initialset3 especially for the Goals related to incomepoverty maternal health HIV and AIDS andenvironmental sustainability The latest list of Goalstargets and indicators are presented in Annex 11The most striking changes to the MDG targets andindicators from the 2001 list to the current list arepresent in five distinct areas

1 Employment and DecentWorkThe originalMDGs included a target focused exclusivelyon implementing strategies for decent andproductive work for youth under Goal 8 Nowthe target is set under Goal 1 and has beenbroadened to address full employment for all

8

2 MDGglobal targets have been ratified by Governments within the framework of the various international conferences andmajor events that followedthe 2000 Millennium Summit among which are the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations (2001) the World Summit on HIVAIDS (2001)the International Conference on Financing for Development (2002) the 2005World Summit the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (2005) the G8Gleneagles Summit (2005) and theWTO Hong Kong Ministerial Meeting (2005)

3 The Inter-Agency and Expert Group on theMDG Indicators has agreed to the revised official list of MDG targets and indicators effective from 15 January2008The revised list reflects the addition of four new targets by the UN General Assembly at theWorld Summit in 2005

Table 11National Processes and Institutional Frameworks for theMDGs

Country National Process

Albania Localized MDGs through regional development strategies parliamentary resolution on MDGs in 2003

Armenia Government adapted a national PRSPMDG monitoring indicators framework the national MDG framework is to be incorporatedinto the reviewed PRSP

Bahrain Plans to localize the MDGs and adopt MDG-plus targets

Bangladesh Government institutionalizing MampE system to report on poverty and MDG indicators local development strategies formulated forMDG achievements MDGs with targets have been incorporated into first PRSP (2005)Medium Term Budgetary Framework andthe ADP discussions underway to integrate the MDGs into the next 5 year plan (2012-2016)

Botswana The seven pillars of the countryrsquos Vision 2016 and its National Development Plan for 2009-2016 matches the eight MDGs

Continued on next page


Table 11National Processes and Institutional Frameworks for theMDGs (cont-d)


Cambodia Localized the MDGs and tailored them to meet their specific needs through a process of national consensus in 2003MDGsincorporated into the National Strategic Development Plan

Colombia Government ratified and localized the MDGs in 2005MDG targets reflected in the development plans of nine of the countryrsquosdepartments government commitment to MDGs also reflected in its development strategy document CONPES 91 (2005)

El Salvador The Governmentrsquos Pais Seguro programme (2004-2009) states that its commitment to achieve the MDGs will lay the foundationfor El Salvadorrsquos future

Ethiopia National development plan PASDEP (2005-2010) prioritizes MDG achievements

Ghana The GPRS II (2006-09) explicitly focuses on the MDGswhich also have been given a separate section in the annual budgetstatement civil society prepared MDG shadow report

India Eleventh National Plan (2008-2012) has 27 monitorable targets of which 13 are disaggregated at the State levelMany are consis-tent with and in some cases more ambitious than the 2015 MDG targets

Indonesia MDGs referenced in the Medium Term National Development Plan (2009-2014) but with no explicit prioritization national goalsfor poverty eradication are more ambitious than the MDGs

Iraq MDGs have been tailored for the needs of Iraq and integrated into the National Development Strategy (2007-2010)

Jamaica MDGs are mentioned in Vision 2030 Jamaicarsquos National Development Plan with no explicit prioritization

Kyrgyzstan MDGs used as the development framework for the Country Development Strategy (2009-2011)which includes 19 key MDG indicatorsIn 2009 a Coordination Committee to oversee implementation of the MDG agenda by all government bodies was established

Lao PDR MDGs are an integral part of the 6th Five Year National Socio-Economic Development Plan the Government is consideringintegrating the MDGs into its 7th National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2011-2015)

Malawi The Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (2006-2011) is a MDG-focused national plan civil society is active in producingshadow MDG reports led by the Council of NGOs in Malawi (CONGOMA)

Mongolia Parliamentary resolution in 2005 establishing Mongolia-specific MDG targets MDG-based national development strategyapproved by Parliament

Morocco In 2005 ONDH (Observatoire National de Development Humain) was established to report to the Prime Minister on humandevelopment and MDG achievements

Mozambique MDGs incorporated into the second PARPA (national poverty reduction strategy) civil society (the Mozambique SurveyConsortium) carried out a survey to assess public perceptions of the MDGs

Nepal MDGs incorporated into the Tenth PRSP (200203-200607) strategic framework current three year National Interim Plan prioritizesprogress towards MDG achievements local MDG reports being carried out at the district level

Senegal The President established a Special Presidential Adviser on the MDGs and appointed a national steering committee to coordinatethe national response for MDG achievement

Sierra Leone The 2nd Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS) focuses explicitly on the MDGswith the Office of the President leading itsimplementation and oversight

Syria MDGs prioritized in the Tenth Five Year Plan (2006-2010)

Tajikistan PRS2 and NDS incorporate MDG targets and indicators MDGWorking Groups established by presidential decree and chaired bydeputy prime ministers under the coordination of the State Advisor of the President

Tanzania MDGs mainstreamed into Development Vision 2025 and medium term plan MKUKUTA and for Zanzibar

Timor-Leste Timor-Leste integrated the MDGs into its first and subsequent National Development Plans and discussions are ongoing with theGovernment regarding the integration of tailored MDG targets

Togo Adopted a National Development Strategy based on the MDGs (2007)

Vanuatu Ongoing discussion with the Government for the integration of MDGs into national and local development plans

Yemen Third National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2005-2010) aligned to the MDGs Cabinet decision taken on adopting theMDGs and integrating them into national strategies plans and programs (2003)

Source Country MDRs and MDG Country Assessments


2 Reproductive HealthThe original Goal onmaternal mortality focused exclusively on thematernal mortality ratio The present list adds atarget focusing on achieving universal access toreproductive health and recognizes theimportance of preventive care and awareness forachievement of this Goal

3 Combating the spread of HIVThe power ofknowledge was further stressed with the additionof two indicators that recognize how educationmay help to halt and reverse the spread of HIVwith a focus on the high risk groups of youthand orphans

4 Treating HIV and AIDSA target was added onachieving universal access to antiretroviraltreatment for all those who require it While theearlier target emphasized the role of pharmaceu-tical companies to provide essential drugs ataffordable prices to developing countries thisnew target places stronger emphasis on theavailability of antiretroviral drugs for patientsliving with HIV and AIDS

5 Environmental SustainabilityAn additionaltarget on reducing biodiversity loss was addedto Goal 7

As additional targets were being added to theglobal list national counterparts had already initiatedthe exercise of tailoring and adapting the globaltargets and indicators as early as 2002 (BhutanBolivia Cambodia) Some countries set MDG-plus

targets (Botswana Thailand) while others completedMDG reports at the sub-national level (ArgentinaEcuador Nigeria) Yet others added an additional Goalto address issues of high national importance such asenhancing security (Afghanistan) Many other countriesadded additional targets for Goals seen as nationalpriorities ndash such as HIV in Botswana and Colombiandash or revised indicators depending on its relevance tothe national context The results of this tailoringexercise are reflected in country MDG Reports oftenproduced jointly by the government and the UN4

In a survey on the perceived impact of theMDGs in 118 countries 86 percent of countriesreported to have undertaken some adaptation ofone or more of the Goals their targets or associatedindicators (UNDG 2005) The MDG country assess-ments reaffirm this finding of the 30 countries sampled90 percent adapted one or more of the Goals targetsor indicators to better reflect national conditions andpriorities5 Transition countries such as AlbaniaMongolia and Iraq adopted an additional Goal 9geared to achieving targets related to goodgovernance while Cambodia added a Goal 9 thatfocuses on demining unexploded ordinance (UXO)and victim assistance In addition Cambodia addedor modified a number of targets and indicators on arange of nationally relevant issues such as reducingchild labor encouraging breastfeeding and increasingthe number of rangers protecting its forests Cambodiaadded modified or expanded the indicators for eachand every target under the first seven MDGs

Two thirds of countries in the sample used theirnational poverty line instead of the ldquodollar a dayrdquo

10

4 For national MDG Reports see httpwwwmdgmonitororgcountry_reportscfmc=KHMampcd=116

5 The exceptions in the sample are Lao PDR Bahrain and Mozambique

Of the 30 countries sampled 90 percentadapted one or more of the Goalstargets or indicators to better reflectnational conditions and priorities

criterion to more accurately measure income povertySuch a large number of countries making the sameadaptation indicate that the ldquodollar a dayrdquo standard maynot be a practical measure of poverty in many countries

Ending discrimination in the workplaceincluding gender-based wage disparities and increas-ing womenrsquos participation and power in the formaleconomy was added by 12 countries in the sample or40 percent including all countries from the Europeand CIS region Each country included multiplediverse indicators for measurement ndash from eliminat-ing gender disparity in employment to increasingwomenrsquos access to and control over productiveresources Further six countries (BotswanaCambodia Colombia Morocco Tajikistan and Togo)included a target or indicator aimed at reducingviolence against women

Many countries ndash including all those in thesample from the Europe and CIS region whichalready achieved universal primary education ndashadapted Goal 2 to include an expanded number ofyears Forty seven percent of countries in the samplemeasure basic6 or secondary education enrollmentandor attainment Armenia Botswana andColombia went further by adding a target oneducation quality using indicators such as thenumber of pupils passing national exams student-teacher ratios and access to textbooks

Nine countries7 also added nationally relevantdiseases to the Goals targets andor indicators Somecountries went further by adapting targets at the sub-national level (Albania Indonesia) Details on howeach country adapted the Goals targets and indica-tors to reflect national concerns and priorities arepresented in Annex 12

The tailoring of the MDG targets and indicatorsto reflect country specific priorities conditions andchallenges was the first step towards nationalownership of this development agenda And if thereis one overriding lesson for the achievement ofdevelopment results ndash and for their sustainability ndash itis the importance of national ownership

National ownership of course extends beyondgovernment ownership Several country assessments


6 Basic education commonly means grades 1-8 while primary schoolrefers to grades 1-5 (definitions may vary across countries)

7 AlbaniaCambodiaColombiaEl SalvadorKyrgyzstanMongoliaSyriaTajikistan and Vanuatu

Box 11MDGs and Citizen Engagement

A powerful but lesser known purpose of the MDGsas described in the UN Secretary-Generalrsquos RoadMap for the Implementation of the MDGs is tomobilize people power in the fight against povertyand inequality As we take stock of how much theMDGs have contributed to reducing poverty illiter-acy and disease in the last decade it is important torecognize that one of the unsung successes of theMDG agenda has been its ability to galvanizemillions of people across the world to call on theirgovernments to account for their MDG promisesThis peoplersquos movement peaked from 16-18 October2008 when over 116 million people in about 110countries joined the Stand Up Against Poverty StandUp for the MDGs initiative facilitated by the UNMillennium Campaign and a wide range of partners ndashincluding the Global Call to Action Against Poverty

Citizens groups both in industralized and develop-ing countries have vigorously campaigned withtheir Governments for the realization of the MDGsand toMake Poverty History The UN MillenniumCampaign has supported citizensrsquo action for MDGadvocacy with a strong focus on the poor andexcluded groups particularly women Citizens haveused a range of methods including accountabilityinstruments such as citizen score cards peoplersquostribunals and independent MDG performanceassessments to gauge progress Shadow Reportsalternative MDG performance reports produced bycitizens groups to assess progress through the lensof the general public have been produced in morethan 30 countries The reports convey the view ofcitizens on issues affecting MDG achievement aswell as their demands to governments ndash includingsteps thought necessary to ensure that countries areon track for MDG achievement

In Ghana for example the Shadow MDG Report2008 covered 50 communities in three disadvan-taged districts one in the south one in the countryrsquoscentral region and one in the north-east The reportargues that Ghana still faces significant challenges inaddressing issues of hunger and extreme povertyespecially among youth The report was validatedwith various civil society groups through Focus GroupDiscussions and later presented to the NationalDevelopment Planning Commission (NDPC) justbefore the High Level event on the MDGs inSeptember 2005The NDPC used the findings indeveloping sectoral planning interventions


indicate the important role played by civil societyorganizations in advocating for the adoption ofnationally relevant MDG targets Importantly civilsociety organizations have played a key role indemonstrating that development progress at thenational level has often by-passed those most inneed such as ethnic minorities poorer regions andsocially excluded groups Shadow MDG Reportsin countries such as Ghana India Malawi andMozambique8 have identified the gaps betweenMDG achievements of such groups and the restof the population pointing to the need for policy-makers to focus the development agenda ondisadvantaged regions and communities

Achievement of the MDGs is fundamentallyrelated to the achievement of greater political spaceand voice for those affected by poverty and exclusionBy linking the relevant goals with the national andlocal substantive political agenda and by enablingdeeper dialogue broader engagement and a participa-tory process for citizensrsquo involvement civil societyorganizations have played a key role in making theMDGs relevant to a countryrsquos specific circumstanceand context

PROGRESS TOWARDSMDG ACHIEVEMENTSTHE EVIDENCEAccording to the global MDG Report 2009significant advances have been made in the periodfrom 1990 to 2005 on a number of indicatorsExtreme poverty (measured as the number of peopleliving on less than a $125 a day9) decreased from18 billion to 14 billion people globally In thedeveloping world as a whole enrolment in primaryeducation reached 88 percent in 2007 up from83 percent in 2000 Interestingly most of theprogress was in regions lagging the furthest behindin Sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia enrolmentincreased by 15 percent and 11 percent respectivelyfrom 2000 to 2007 Deaths of children under fivedeclined steadily worldwide from 126 million in

1990 to 9 million in 2007 despite population growth(UN 2009a)

Progress though has been uneven rapidacceleration is vital to bring improved sanitation tothe 14 billion people who were forced to live withoutit in 2006 with all its attendant consequences for thelocal environment and health of communities And aglobal clarion call is needed to focus attention on theurgent need to improve maternal health ndash the goaltowards which there has been least progress madeso far

Importantly the evidence also reveals widevariations among and within regions Asian countrieshave performed well in lowering income povertywhile Latin American and Middle Eastern countrieshave fared well in health education and improvinggender equity Sub-Saharan African countriesgenerally lag far behind countries in other regionsand progress is slower in conflict and post-crisiscountries as well

At current trends most developing countries areprojected not to meet most of the MDGs On thispoint there is relative agreement among the UNWorld Bank and NGOs (Bourguignon etal 2008)

The 30 MDG country assessments also revealwide variations among countries with respect toMDG achievements In some countries incomepoverty declined (Ethiopia Ghana JamaicaKyrgyzstan) whereas in others poverty reduction hasbeen too slow (Cambodia Mozambique Tanzania)in others still poverty levels have even increased(Colombia Timor-Leste Togo Yemen)

Table 12 illustrates the difficulty of makinggeneralized statements on trends in MDG achievementThe reality is that most countries may achieve progresson some goals and face a unique set of challenges inachieving others there is a wide variation of progressNevertheless the sample shows that there are sometrends within regions and among groups classified bylevel of development for individual goals

Twelve of the 30 countries in the sample are ontrack to meet the Goal of reducing by two-thirdsthe mortality rate among children under five (bestperformer in the sample) but half are off track to meet

12

8 WadaNaTodo AbhiyanMeasuring Indiarsquos progress on theMDGsA Citizenrsquos Report (Dec 2007)Tehreek E PasmandaMuslim Samaj (TPMS)MillenniumDevelopment Goals and Muslims in India A Status Report (2008) Peoplersquos Forum on the MDGs (PFM) Not Yet Free of Bondage An Overview of theIndependent Civil Society report on the Progress of the MDGs in Bangladesh (July 2007)

9 In 2005 prices


Table 12MDG Progress Score Card10

Country MDG-1Poverty ampHunger

MDG-2Education

MDG-3GenderEquality

MDG-4ChildMortality

MDG-5MaternalHealth

MDG-6HIVAIDS ampOther

MDG-7EnvironmentSustainability

Albania

Armenia

Bahrain Insufficient data

Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador

Ethiopia Insufficient data

Ghana Insufficient data

India Insufficient data Insufficient data

Indonesia

Iraq Insufficient data

Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan

Lao PDR

Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo

Vanuatu Insufficient data

Yemen

Achieved or on track to be achieved by 2015 Source National MDG Reports

Mixed progress or possible to achieve by 2015 if additional strengthened or corrective action is taken urgently

Off track unlikely to be achieved by 2015

10 Note on the DataThe data to assess each countryrsquos MDG progress are obtained from the latest national MDG Reports ndash the principal source of MDGdata at the country levelThe data contained in these reports measure MDG progress in relation to the targets and Goals that have been adapted bythe countryGlobal and regional MDG progress reports rely on different data sets and report on progress made toward the global targetsData inthe latter are adjusted to facilitate international comparisonsDifferences in assessing MDG progress may also arise on account of different yearsused for tracking progressThis includes the benchmark year and also the latest year for which data may be available

The Bangladesh MDG-R 2007 indicates that the country is ldquoon trackrdquo to meet MDG-1 however it acknowledges that Bangladesh risks missingthe target in 2015 unless high economic growth is sustained

Data for Ethiopia considers updates from PASDAP Annual Progress Report 200607Data for Tajikistan uses the 2005 MDG Needs Assessment


the Goal of reducing by three-quarters the maternalmortality ratio (worst performer in the sample) Thisis consistent with the global trends observed ldquothe deathsof children under five declined steadily worldwidedespite population growthhellipthe goal towards whichthere has been the least progress world-wide is thatof maternal mortalityrdquo (UN 2009a)Interestingly no African country in the sample is

off track to achieve MDG-6 on HIV Malaria andother diseases indicating that the Goal is not out ofreach for these countries in the African region

About half of the Goals in the Asia Pacificregion are ldquopossible to achieverdquo with the introductionof additional targeted interventions and effectivepolicies This trend is also true for the Europe andCIS region indicating the vulnerability of theseregions to shocks For instance seven out of nineAsian countries are currently lagging behind ontargets related to income poverty and hunger butmay achieve them if additional strengthened action

is taken to accelerate achievementCountries sampled from the Arab States have

both the highest percentage of Goals that are ontrack as well as the highest percentage of Goalsthat are off track They are collectively off track formeeting the Goal of environmental sustainability butare doing very well on combating income poverty andhunger with the exception of Yemen Most sampledcountries in the Europe and CIS region are off trackon MDG targets related to gender equality andmaternal mortality

There are 13 Least Developed Countries(LDCs) in the sample and 13 developing countrieswhich are neither LDCs nor transition economiesOf the countries in the sample the LDCs areshowing less progress towards achieving the MDGsthan the developing countries Seven countries in theLDC group are off track for three or more MDGswhile only two countries in the developing groupfare the same Only one LDC Ethiopia is on trackfor meeting MDG-5 on maternal health while sixdeveloping countries in the sample are on track forachieving that Goal Achieving targets related toeducation and gender equality also appear to begreater challenges in LDCs Interestingly howeverLDCs are faring much better than developingcountries on halting and reversing the spread ofHIV and other diseases five LDCs in the sampleare on track to achieve MDG-6 compared with onlyone non-LDC developing country

The process of measuring progress itself canalso prove difficult Several country assessments notethat poverty estimates can only be as robust as themethods and data used to generate them In somecountries ( Jamaica Kyrgyzstan) the national povertyline is too low thereby underestimating the trueextent of poverty Other country assessments report

14

The reality is that most countries mayachieve progress on some goals and facea unique set of challenges in achieving othersthere is a wide variation of progress

Table 13 Projected Poverty Ratesin 2015 ( of the Population)

Country 2015 Projections

Mozambique 40

Sierra Leone 33

Colombia 285

Bangladesh 29

Timor-Leste 31

SourceNational MDGRs

that the indicators reported in the MDGR conflictwith other data sources and perceptions of the actualstate of poverty (Malawi Sierra Leone)

While several countries appear to have maderapid progress in reducing poverty many of thembegan the 1990s with extremely high poverty ratesIndeed even if countries like Mozambique SierraLeone Colombia Bangladesh and Timor-Leste wereto achieve the target of reducing income poverty byhalf the poverty incidence in these countries wouldstill be at extremely high levels Table 13 presentsdata on the projected incidence of poverty in 2015for these countries if they were to achieve the targetof reducing income poverty by half

PROGRESS IS NEITHERLINEAR OR MONOTONICEvidence among different countries on the rate andpace of MDG progress from 1990 to 2005 revealsthat many countries are on track on a number offronts but that the progress can have periods of rapidacceleration stagnation and even periodic setbacks

From 1995 to 2006 the Middle East and NorthAfrica region was progressing at a trajectory fasterthan required for achieving the under-five mortalitytarget by 2015 From 2006 to 2007 however childmortality rose from 354 deaths per 1000 children to384 deaths per 1000 children Despite this setbackthe region is still on track towards meeting this target

The Latin America and the Caribbean region isnearly on track for meeting target 11 on incomepoverty From 1990 to 1993 the region experienced asharp decline in poverty and found itself comfortablybelow the trajectory required to meet the goal by2015 By 1996 however the region was off track andlost much of the progress made during the first fewyears of the decade From 1996 to 2002 poverty ratesremained relatively stagnant falling by just onequarter of one percent of the population The three-year period from 2002 to 2005 again saw a sharpdecline in income poverty bringing the region closeto the required trajectory to meet the goal

Individual countries also often experience non-linear patterns of MDG progress The chart belowshows the rate of measles immunization for childrenaged 12-23 months in Indonesia Periods of rapidacceleration stagnation and even decline are evident

Country by country it appears that progresstowards the MDGs is shaped by the following(a) how far a country participates in global growth(b) how far a countryrsquos own policies contribute toshared growth and poverty reduction (c) a countryrsquosgovernance and capacity challenges and (d) for the


7

8

9

10

11

12

SourceWorld Bank

Figure 12 Share of People Livingon Less than $125 per Day ()Latin America

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

30

40

50

60

70

SourceWorld Bank

Figure 11 Reduce byTwoThirdsthe Under-FiveMortality Rate(Deaths per 1000 Children)Middle East and North Africa

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

Goal

Actual

Goal

Actual


poorest countries how much aid is delivered and howwell it is used (Bourguignon 2008)Given the right policy environment together with

committed institutions backed by adequate capacity andsufficient resources progress towardsMDG achievementscan be accelerated and the evidence speaks to that

In Mozambique some of the most impressivegains have been in the education sector notably in

improving access to primary education The PlanningDepartment in the Ministry of Education examinedfour decades of detailed time-series data whichshows a decrease in the number of new primaryschool entrants from the mid 1970s to the early1980s when the disruptions caused by the civil wardrove down enrolment rates However after the endof hostilities school enrolment figures began to climbsharply and steadily The data reported in the twoMDGRs for net enrolment and net completion ratesin first level primary education which covers grades1-5 shows that the net enrolment rate (NER) morethan doubled in just ten years (Figure 14) In 1997the NER was 44 percent compared to 96 percent in2007 The rise in enrolment has been particularlystrong for girls from 39 percent in 1997 to 93percent in 2007

In recent years a series of specific measures havebeen introduced in Mozambique to sustain themomentum towards meeting the MDGs related toeducation Government policy since 2003 has focusedon lowering the cost of primary education andensuring that a higher proportion of expendituresreach learners Three major primary educationmeasures were introduced in 2004 a ministerialdecree abolished the ASE (Accao Social Escolar) aswell as all other fees and levies in primary educationto take effect in the beginning of the 2005 schoolyear the government also introduced capitationgrants (valued at approximately $050 per term perprimary school student in 2004) for all primaryschools to cover non-salary expenses including thepurchase of essential teaching and learning materialsand school repair the third measure was theintroduction of a new primary school curriculumfrom 2004 Moreover it allowed the possibility ofteaching in native languages for grades 1 and 2 andfor textbooks to be provided free of charge to allprimary school students

In Ethiopia remarkable achievements have beenrealized in the health sector The National ChildSurvival Strategy ndash which has the overall objective ofreducing the under-five mortality rate to 67 deathsper 1000 children by 2015 in order to achieve therelated MDG targets ndash addresses the major causes ofchild mortality that account for 90 percent of under-five deaths including pneumonia neonatal conditionsmalaria diarrhea measles malnutrition and HIV

16

0102030405060708090

100

Figure 13 Immunization in Indonesia(1990-2007)

Measles ( of children ages 12ndash23 months)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Source Republic of Mozambique and United Nations (2008 2005)

Figure 14Net Enrolment Rate andCompletion Rate in Grades 1-5

1997 2003 2007 2010 2015

Completion

Enrollment

Progress requiredto meet MDG2

SourceWorld Development Indicators

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

As a result immunization rates have increasedfour-fold since the early 1990s making Ethiopia oneof the few countries in Africa to have achieved anincrease of more than 50 percent in the proportionof children being immunized against measles

In just seven years ndash from 19992000 to20062007 ndash the proportion of children fullyimmunized against all major childhood diseases inEthiopia has more than doubled from 223 percentto 53 percent This is on account of a number offactors such as a national effort to expandimmunization services and outreach of health servicesto rural areas and to the poor and substantialadditional funding provided by the Government anddevelopment partners including the Global Fund

As these cases indicate accelerated progresstowards MDG achievements is indeed possibleHowever making progress towards MDG achieve-ments and sustaining these achievements are not thesame thing


Table 14MDG-4 (Reduce Child Mortality) Indicator Trends in Ethiopia

EthiopianIndicator

Base Level(1990)

MDGTarget(2015)

199596 200001 200405 200607(or most recent)

Under-5 MortalityRate (per 1000)

190 63 - 167(200102)

123 -

Infant Mortality(per 1000)

123(199293)

- - 97(200102)

77 -

ImmunizationMeasles ()

- - 42(200102)

61 65

Immunization-DPT3 ()

14 - 59 47 70 73

SourceMoFED 2008

Figure 15 Immunization Trendsin Ethiopia

EPI Coverage Proportion of Children ImmunizedAgainst DiptheriaPertusis andTetanusandMeasles

NoteMeasles immunisation data not available for 199293 and 199900SourceWMS and MOH Annual Data (Ethiopia)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

DPT3 Measles

1992ndash1993

1999ndash2000

2003ndash2004

2006ndash2007

SUSTAININGMDGPROGRESSRECENT GLOBAL TRENDSRecent global developments ndash including volatilecommodity prices and the global financial andeconomic crisis ndash point out how developmentachievements can be stalled if not reversed TheWorld Bank predicts that up to 90 million morepeople will be pushed into extreme poverty by theend of 2010 as a result of the global recession11 andthe rise in unemployment could reach more than50 million in a worst-case scenario estimated by the

ILO (2009b) if conditions continue to deteriorateThe crisis could also have a disproportionatelynegative impact on female employment since theyconstitute between 60 and 80 percent of exportmanufacturing workers in developing countriesaccording to the Commission on the Status ofWomen (2009)

Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is expected to seea real drop in financial flows between 2007 and 2009and an export earnings decline of about 6 percentof the entire continentrsquos GDP (African Perspectives2009) Growth rates have decelerated sharply in the

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Lead

Copper

Co ee (Robusta)

Oil (crude)

Iron ore

Palm oil

Gold

Fish meal

Groundnut oil

Aluminum

Maize

Cocoa

Phosphate (rock)

Logs Cameroon

Cotton

Tea (Avg 3 auctions)

Sugar (free market)

Banana

Tobacco

Source AfDBOECD (2008)

Figure 16 The Surge in Commodity Prices ndash 2001-2007 (100 in 2001)

11 httpwebworldbankorgWBSITEEXTERNALNEWS0contentMDK22335223~pagePK34370~piPK34424~theSitePK460700html

Base 2001 prices = 100

BEYOND THE MIDPOINTACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS18

CIS countries and for many of the countries in LatinAmerica and the Caribbean And it does not appearthat richer or middle-income countries in Asia willescape the effects of the crisis either Many EastAsian economies are in recession and China andIndia have experienced sharp contractions in growth(Action Aid 2009)

None of the countries in the sample appearto be immune from the impacts of these globaldevelopments (Annex 13) although the magnitudeof impact varies from country to country Thosesuffering the worst effects appear to be mineral andoil exporters whose fortunes were tied to the surge incommodity prices that started shortly after the turnof the new millennium Almost all commodity pricesincreased at different rates from 2001 to 2007But by 2008 prices of oil and minerals began todrop sharply and the global economic crisis began toricochet around the globe impacting export revenuesand the growth prospects of developing countriesCountries sampled in the Europe and CIS region

experienced sharp contractions in growth rates InKyrgyzstan GDP growth is expected to drop to09 percent in 2009 from 76 percent in 2008 InArmenia growth will slow by as much as 8 percent in2009 while in Tajikistan GDP growth is expected tofall to 2-3 percent in 2009 compared to 8 percent in2008 Much of this slowdown is the result of a fall inexport revenues reflecting both the decline in theprice of commodities and the demand for exports ndashincluding minerals and oil In Kyrgyzstan exportscontracted by 30 percent in the first quarter of 2009


Recent global developments ndash includingvolatile commodity prices and the

global financial and economic crisis ndashpoint out how development achievements

can be stalled if not reversed

UNPhotoLogan

Abassi


while in Tajikistan they fell by 40 percent againstthe same period in 2008

Consequently in Tajikistan the budget deficithas forced the government to cut spending by96 percent which has affected spending in a numberof sectors including utilities and infrastructure In

Armenia budget revenues declined by 146 percentcompared with the same period in 2008

Mineral-exporting countries from Africa alsoappear to have been deeply impacted by drops inboth commodity prices and demand on account ofthe economic crisis Botswana and Sierra Leone haveseen their fortunes fade rapidly as diamond exportshave nearly ground to a halt Botswanarsquos diamondindustry ndash accounting for more than 40 percent ofGDP 40 percent of government revenue and 90percent of foreign exchange earnings ndash practicallycollapsed towards the end of 2008 diamond produc-tion is expected to be 35 percent lower in 2009 andprices 15 percent lower compared to 2008

In Sierra Leone minerals constitute 89 percentof the countryrsquos export revenues ndash much of which isdiamonds which alone account for 60 percent of allexport revenues With a drop of 37 percent in theprices of commodity metals in just the last quarter of2008 foreign exchange earnings have plummetedAnecdotal evidence suggests that the diamondindustry responsible for 300000 jobs is now virtuallyat a standstill

On the one hand such developments showstarkly how a countryrsquos position in the globaleconomy can affect its progress at the national levelThe global economy can influence the achievementof the MDGs by facilitating economic growth inparticular countries But it also points to the fact thatachievements made thus far cannot be guaranteedand can be impacted by ever-changing globaleconomic conditions and trends

20

SecuringMDG achievements in light ofthese global developments requires nowmore than ever that developing countries developand adopt risk-coping and risk-managementstrategies especially in the areas of commodity riskmanagementweather insurance and health insurance

Box 12Miningrsquos Contributionto Growth inMongolia

Mining of copper and gold represents 70 percentof Mongoliarsquos exports and almost 30 percent of thecountryrsquos GDP Strong growth in the mining sectorwas associated with an average GDP growth of75 percent from 2001 to 2008 reaching a peak of99 percent in 2007This resulted in a significantexternal balance surplus dramatic increases inbudget revenues and a rapid expansion of govern-ment spending

Falling copper prices and demand have caused arapid reversal in the countryrsquos economic outlookwith a fast growing trade deficit reduced foreignexchange reserves capital outflows and steepexchange rate depreciation In 2009 the IMF expectsGDP growth to drop to 28 percent Due to thesudden drop in revenues allocations for MDG-related sectors including health and education aswell as infrastructure allocations have been delayed

Securing MDG achievements in light of theseglobal developments requires now more than everthat developing countries develop and adoptrisk-coping and risk-management strategiesespecially in the areas of commodity risk manage-ment weather insurance and health insuranceIt is anticipated that over the medium termcommodity markets will remain tight and volatileThe uncertainty surrounding commodity pricesmust be taken into account when designing MDG-consistent development strategies

There is even more uncertainty when assessingthe situation over a longer time frame Of specialconcern are the challenges and uncertainties posed byclimate change and the consequences of globalwarming for developing countries Existing modelsthat link climate forecasts and the global economysuggest that the agricultural sector of developingcountries will be the hardest hit by climate changeand that within individual countries the poorestregions will suffer most (Cline 2007) This couldrender the progress achieved so far in the MDGsunsustainable in the long run unless adequateadaptation policies can be launched


Box 13 Legal Empowermentof the Poor as a Climate ChangeMitigationTool

Legal empowerment can give poor people andcommunities the legal tools to proactively protectthemselves from the effects of climate change suchas droughts deforestation desertification sea-levelrise and flooding At the same time legal empower-ment can give poor people access to new climatefinancing opportunities such as carbon marketsSecure land rights for example will be critical toensuring that poor farming communities can attractcarbon financing to rehabilitate forests grasslandsand agricultural land Land rights for the poor andequitable access to land would produce a tripledividend by improving livelihood security stimulat-ing economic development and reducing concen-trations of greenhouse gases Legal empowermentof the poor could therefore contribute to sustain-able poverty reduction and climate resilientdevelopment

Source UN 2009b

UNPhotoTim

McKulka

Economic Growth Inequalityand Poverty Reduction

Broad-based and Inclusive Growthfor Accelerated MDG Achievement

Reducing Hunger and Food Insecurity

Sustaining Poverty ReductionAchievements Employment Creationand Inclusive Growth

CHAPTER TWO

THE DEVELOPMENTPOLICY ENVIRONMENTANDMDG ACHIEVEMENTS


How a country articulates its developmentpriorities how it reflects these priorities in policies andprogrammes and how it leverages its opportunitiesin the global system are fundamental in chartingand shaping MDG progress at the national level


The policy environment within which MDGprogress is shaped is largely determined by domesticcircumstances Indeed the considerable variation inprogress towards MDG achievements acrosscountries even within the same region can beaccounted for in large part by differences in nationalpolicy choices and conditions Further in an increas-ingly interdependent world the policy space withinwhich domestic policies are negotiated anddetermined are themselves circumscribed by andsubject to developments in the system of global tradeand finance Clearly then the specificity of countriesin terms of their particular constraints and opportu-nities should be recognized as must the understand-ing that there can be no one set of policy prescrip-tions that will fit all countries in their effort toaccelerate progress towards MDG achievementsFurther policy coherence at the international levelitself will need to be drastically improved if suchprogress is to be enabled and sustained

ECONOMIC GROWTHINEQUALITY ANDPOVERTY REDUCTIONBy now it is widely acknowledged that botheconomic growth and inequality play a major role ingenerating changes in poverty Indeed there is little

controversy that growth is essential for povertyreduction (assuming that the distribution of incomeremains more or less constant) and much evidencepoints in this direction (Deininger-Squire 1996Revallion 2002) Likewise much evidence suggeststhat a worsening of inequality tends to increasepoverty (Bourguignon 2004) For these reasonsldquoalthough poverty reduction is closely correlated togrowth in per capita income this effect appears lowin countries where income inequality has beenrising12rdquo Increasingly it is being recognized thatdistribution matters for poverty reduction and overthe medium term distributional changes may beresponsible for sizeable changes in poverty Thus itis important to consider both growth and incomedistribution simultaneously when looking at theimpact on poverty reduction

However are growth and distribution independ-ent of each other or strongly inter-related Is it thecase that faster growth in a country reduces orincreases inequality Or is it the case that too muchinequality in a given country acts to slow or acceler-ate growth

Empirical verifications (using cross-sectionaldata) on the distributional impact of growth indicatethat there is too much country specificity in the waythat growth affects distribution for any generalizationto be possible Country studies13 though have beenless ambiguous in showing that distributionalchanges have very much to do with the pace and

24

12 Jantii amp Sandstrom 2005 JHumberto Lopez 2006

13 Ferreira amp de Barros 1998 Bourguignon 2004

Countries with more lsquoegalitarian growthrsquo experiencedhigher rates of economic growth and poverty reductionon average compared to other countries - indicating thatbroadly spread growthwhere the poor are included in thebenefits and opportunities of the growth process is a keyfactor in achieving accelerated development outcomes


Table 21GrowthPoverty and Inequality 1995-2007

Country AverageAnnual GDPGrowth

1995-200714

HouseholdConsumption

Growth1995-200715

PovertyRate (late90s)16

PovertyRate (mid00s)16

PovertyReduction(late 90s tomid 00s)16

Gini(mid90s)17

Gini(mid00s)17

changeGini

Albania 59 57 25 19 27 0282 0330 17

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23

Bahrain 5118 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

India 69 56 36 28 22 NA 0368 NA

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA

Iraq 6519 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Morocco 38 28 15 9 40 0395 0410 4

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4320 39 34 13 0340 0350 3

Timor-Leste 2021 NA 36 50 -38 NA NA NA

Togo 36 3822 7223 62 14 NA 0340 NA

Vanuatu 22 NA 40 16 60 NA NA NA

Yemen 52 3224 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 45 35 22 0398 0400 1

Data sourceWorld BankNational MDG Reports

14 Data fromWorld Development IndicatorsWorld Bank15 Data fromWorld Development IndicatorsWorld Bank16 National poverty lineData fromWorld Development Indicators In cases where data for the national

poverty line was not available inWDI data from the National MDG Reports was usedAvailable datafor years closest to 1995 and 2007 Exact years and data sources for each are recorded in Annex 21

17 Data fromWorld Development IndicatorsWorld Bank Exact years are recorded in Annex 2118 1995-2005

19 1998-2004

20 1995-2006

21 2000-2007

22 1995-2005

23 1990

24 1995-2003

structural features of economic growth These resultshave two implications first that although thechannels by which growth affects distribution arevalid the nature of the relationship depends on acountryrsquos initial conditions and second given thecountry specificity of this relation there is room forpolicy interventions in determining the distributionalconsequences of growthThe dominant perspective today is that inequality

too plays a central role in determining the rate andpattern of growth and high initial levels of inequalityseem to be associated with lower economic growthrates25 (Alesina amp Rodrik 1994 Alesina amp Perotti1996 Birdsall 2007 Rodrik 1998) The evidenceappears to support this perspective with cross-sectional studies showing that inegalitarian countriestended to grow more slowly over the last 20-30years26 If this is indeed the case then the policyimplication is that progressive redistribution wouldenhance growth In other words reduce inequality

through redistribution or through promoting pro-poor growth for a sustainable poverty reductionstrategy It is important to note though that in thiscontext it has been pointed out that it is the redistri-bution of wealth not of income that may producethis favorable effect on economic efficiency and growth

So a more equal distribution of assets matters Itreduces poverty not only indirectly by acceleratingeconomic growth but also directly by enhancingincome growth of the poorest groups The long-standing inattention to the distribution of assetsboth in terms of physical and human capital hasbeen costly as it would have earlier called attention toa fundamental constraint on poverty reduction thelack of access by the poor to the assets necessary forincreased productivity and income (Birdsall 1997)Additionally it is not only the lack of access to assetsthat hold the poor back equally important is the factthat the poorrsquos assets tend to be insecure unprotectedand less productive than they could be

In summary it is important to consider bothgrowth and income (wealth) distribution simultane-ously and to recognize that distribution matters asmuch as growth for poverty reduction However theimpact of these phenomena depends on the initiallevel of income and inequality and the relative effectsof both phenomena may differ quite significantlyacross countries Thus optimal growth-distributionstrategies aiming at poverty reduction in a given timeperiod should differ depending on initial conditionsFor instance it may be that ldquochanging the distribu-tion is probably more important for middle-incomeand inegalitarian countries while growth is probablymore important in relative terms for low-incomeand egalitarian countriesrdquo (Bourguignon 2004)

Evidence from the 30 country assessments (Table21) indicates a highly variable relationship betweeneconomic growth and poverty reduction (Figure 21)

Some countries despite low growth ratesappeared to have lowered the poverty incidencesignificantly (Vanuatu El Salvador) whereas inothers (Timor-Leste) poverty increased significantly


1 3 5 7 9 11

Percentpovertyreduction

late

90sto

mid

00s(

)

GDP Growth 1995ndash2007 ()

Figure 21 Relationship betweenGrowth and Poverty Reduction

25 Alesina amp Rodrik (2004) were the first to point out that initial inequality seemed to be empirically associated with lower growth ratesThe literaturehas proposed several hypotheses which could explain why progressive redistribution may be growth-enhancing for instance redistributing capitalfrom capital rich enterprises or individuals to capital poor or credit constrained people increases efficiency investment and growth too much in-equality may lead to social tensions which in turn adversely impact growth (Rodrik 1998)

26 It has been noted that these results depend very much on the sample and quality of data being used (Bourguignon 2004)

80

60

40

20

0

ndash20

ndash40

ndash60

y = 08557x + 01738

Clearly country specific conditions explain some ofthese results El Salvador emerged from conflictwhereas Timor-Leste descended into civil war

On the other end high growth countries likeMozambique and Armenia significantly lowered thepoverty incidence whereas Cambodia despite highgrowth saw negligible reduction in poverty Manyother countries with moderate rates of growthshowed minimal reduction in poverty (IndonesiaMongolia Yemen)

However there is a correlation between changesin inequality and poverty reduction for the 30country sample Figure 22 plots the relationshipbetween the change in inequality over the decade andpoverty reduction countries that have improved theirlevels of inequality over the period experiencedhigher rates of poverty reduction than countrieswhose level of inequality worsened over the period

With respect to the relationship betweeninequality and growth data for the 30 countrysample supports the negative relationship betweeninequality and growth Figure 23 shows the relation-ship between the initial level of inequality (1990s)and economic growth for countries in the sampleLow initial levels of inequality (high Gini coefficient)are correlated with higher rates of economic growthin the subsequent decade

Over the past decade sampled countries withlow and falling levels of inequality (Table 22)27

experienced on average higher rates of economicgrowth and poverty reduction than the full sample28this has put them on track as a group to achieveMDG-1 with an average of 306 percent povertyreduction over the last decade The mean householdconsumption growth rate for these countries of69 percent was much higher than the 5 percent ofthe full sample indicating that a greater share ofeconomic growth was passed on to the poor in thesecountries helping them to increase their consump-tion of essential goods and services

Countries in the sample with high and increasinglevels of inequality (Table 23)29 experienced an


27 Countries with low initial inequality (lt 0340) with no significant change in Gini (lt 8 Δ) and countries where inequality fell sharply during theperiod (gt 20)

28 55 vs 50 average growth from 1995-2007 306 percent vs 22 percent poverty reduction over the last decade

29 Countries with high initial inequality (gt0410) with no significant change in Gini (le 8 Δ) and countries where inequality rose sharply during theperiod (gt20)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percentchan

gein

Gini()

Percent Poverty Reduction ()

Figure 22 Improvements in InequalityLead toHigherRatesofPovertyReduction

30

20

10

0

ndash10

ndash20

ndash30

ndash40

ndash50

y = ndash02298x + 00171

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

InitialLevelofIneq

uality(Gini1990s)

Economic Growth Average 1995ndash2007 ()

Figure 23 Initial Level of Inequalityand Growth

0700

0600

0500

0400

0300

0200

0100

0000

y = ndash16043x + 05022

Data sourceWorld Bank


Table 22 Countries with low and falling inequality30

Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)

PovertyReduction(late 90s

to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Average 55 69 306




Table 23 Countries with high and increasing inequality31

Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Average 45 425 218



average growth rate of 45 percent (Table 23)much lower than that of the countries with low andfalling levels of inequality In addition they alsoexperienced a lower average rate of poverty reduction ndash218 percent ndash which is low enough to throw themcollectively off track for MDG-1 achievementThese countries had a much lower growth rate inhousehold consumption (425 percent) indicatingthat the poor did not benefit from growth in thisgroup of countries as much as those with lower andfalling inequality

Importantly two groups of developing countriesappeared to have fared particularly poorly in thegrowthinequalitypoverty nexus the LDCs whoseeconomies rely on agricultural commodities and the

fuel exporting developing countries ldquoThe chronicpoverty found in countries entrenched in long-termgrowth failure appears to be highest in the LDCsespecially those that depend on primary commodityexports for their developmentrdquo (Gore 2002)

There are 13 LDCs in the sample that areeconomically dependent on agricultural commodities(Table 24) This group of countries had a highlevel of inequality (0420 average Gini coefficient inthe mid 1990s) which has improved only slightlyover the past decade The average rate of povertyreduction of these countries during the last decade(15 percent) was profoundly inadequate forMDG-1 achievement

The six fuel export dependent countries in the

Table 24 Poverty and Inequality in Least Developed Countries

Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007

HouseholdConsumption Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)

PovertyReduction(late 90s tomid 00s)

Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Ethiopia 65 71 46 39 15 0400 0300 - 25

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32


Togo 36 3832 72^ 62 14 NA NA NA


Yemen 52 3233 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 52 (53) 44 (45) 15 (15) 0420 0390 - 3

(Figures in parenthesis do not include Timor-LesteTogo and Vanuatuwhich do not have published Gini coefficients)Data source World BankNational MDG Reports

32 1995-2005

33 1995-2003


sample34 experienced lower than average growthrates as well as significantly lower poverty reductionand household consumption growth (Table 25)This group as a whole remains off track for meetingMDG-1 with an average rate poverty reductionrate of only 11 percent over the past decadeInequality is very high for this group with anaverage Gini coefficient of 0483 for the countrieswith available data

Oil is the single largest source of governmentrevenue for Iraq (90 percent) Yemen (70-75 percent)and Bahrain (60 percent) and an important sourceof revenue for Syria (20 percent) Colombia andIndonesia These countries benefited from high oilprices between 2005 and 200835 For exampleColombiarsquos economy grew by a robust 71 percentfrom 2005-2007 largely a benefit from high oilprices The growth rate during this period wassignificantly higher than the 29 percent growth itexperienced between 1995 and 2004

Each of these countries however faced sharply

declining oil exports starting from the early 21stcentury largely due to increasing domestic demandand falling production (Table 26) The reserves ofYemen and Bahrain face complete depletion withinthe next decade while Colombia Indonesia andSyria face continued sharply declining reservesUnless these economies diversify and are able togenerate significant revenues from other sources theywill face a balance of payments crisis in the comingyears even if oil prices rise to more recent levels Theexpected impact on MDG-related public expendi-tures would be devastating

Minerals account for more than 40 percent ofexports for eight countries in the 30 country sample(Table 27) One would expect that economies highlydependent on the mining sector which is largelycapital intensive and does not provide much employ-ment relative to its contribution to GDP would nothave experienced much poverty reduction Forexample mining accounts for nearly 40 percent ofGDP in Botswana but provides only 13000 jobs

30

Table 25 Poverty and Inequality in Fuel Exporting Countries

Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini


Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA

Iraq37 65 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Yemen 52 32 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 47 39 39 3 95 0483 0483 0

Does not include Indonesiawhich does not have comparable data for the mid 1990sData source World BankNational MDG Reports

34 Not including Timor-Lestewhich started exporting oil only in 2007

35 Although Indonesia became a net importer of oil in 2004 oil exports still contributes to government revenues

36 1995-2005

37 1998-2004


Table 26 Percent Change in Oil Exports Production and Domestic Consumption

Country Change in Oil Exports1999-2008

Change in OilProduction 1999-2008

Change in DomesticConsumption 1999-2008

Bahrain -61 -2 +70

Colombia -44 -28 +5

Indonesia -118 -33 +20

Iraq38 -15 -5 +41

Syria -36 -20 +04

Yemen -53 -26 +67

Average -55 -19 +34

Source Energy Information Administration

Table 27 Poverty and Inequality in Mineral and Iron Ore Export Dependent Economies

Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4339 39 34 13 0340 0350 3

Average 52 53 48 34 29 0441(0417)

0363 - 13

Not including Botswanawhich lacks data for the full time periodData source World BankNational MDG Reports

38 1998-2004

39 1995-2006


equivalent to just 45 percent of the labor forceYet significantly three countries in this group ndashBotswana Ghana and Tajikistan ndash sustained rates ofpoverty reduction equal to or greater than 30 percentover the past decade The reason in addition torobust growth rates that benefited from high

commodity prices since 2000 many of thesecountries implemented a series of pro-poor policiesthat enabled the poor to benefit from more broad-based economic growth (see Box 21 on Botswana)For instance Ghana implemented a number ofprogrammes aimed at accelerating MDG progress

32

Box 21Government Role in Promoting Inclusive Growth in Botswana

Botswana was lucky enough to have diamonds But valuable natural resources in other developing countries have notalways translated into broad-based economic progress and poverty reductionThere must be a wider strategy thatfocuses on developing productive capacities and diversifying economic activities

A landlocked country with a population of 18 million Botswana saw its GDP grow by an average of 61 percent a yearfrom 1996 to 2006The diamond trade generated $37 billion in income in 2006 alone Botswana now also exportscopper and nickel which accounts for 17 percent of exports textiles (7 percent) and meat products (25 percent)Diversification efforts focus on the export of leather glass and jewelry products however mining still dominates theeconomy and represented 86 percent of exports and 39 percent of GDP in 2006

The Government has focused on the effective management of the exceptional profits from its diamond mines and hascarefully channeled some of the money into efforts to spur domestic businesses outside the mining sector It has alsorapidly increased spending for social areas such as education and health-care ndash which together account for one-third ofall government expenditures ndash and on such basic infrastructure as roads energywater systems and telecommunicationsA labor-intensive employment programme helped to reduce unemployment and an arable land programme helped toraise the incomes of resource-poor farmersThe Financial Assistance Policy established in 1982 offered grants to localfirms particularly labor-intensive companiesmany of them small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

Botswanarsquos government also established a comprehensive safety net programme for poor and vulnerable householdsincluding supplementary feeding programmes for school children and vulnerable groups delivery of food packages tothe destitute assistance to the terminally ill through home-based care and the provision of food clothing and educationto children who have lost one or both of their parents A universal and non-contributory old age pension programme wasalso establishedOne-third of all households are estimated to have benefitted from one or more of these programmes

Source UNCTAD XII 2008

Targeted pro-poor policies and programmes in somecountries enabled the poor to benefit from economicgrowth leading to accelerated poverty reductionand improvedMDG indicators

including instituting a national health insurancescheme in 2004 and introducing capitation grants forprimary schools These initiatives among othershave enabled Ghana to make rapid progress onprimary school enrolment and to realize dramaticimprovements in the under-five mortality rateamong other MDG indicators

Mongolia on the other hand has yet toimplement the decentralization agenda leaving localgovernments with limited or no resources to invest intheir development priorities such as improving accessto potable water sanitation and health care andeducation services The Mongolian economy alsoremains highly undiversified making it vulnerable tocommodity price shocks These factors contributed toMongoliarsquos meager one percent reduction in povertyover the last decade

Clearly then evidence from the sample confirmsthe trends observed Growth by itself is not sufficientto reduce poverty Countries that had the mostsuccess with poverty reduction were those whereincome inequality fell and national growth remainedrobust or where growth occurred in sectors wherethe poor were concentrated In other words povertyreduction was most successful where economicgrowth was broadly distributed and where the poorwere included in the benefits and opportunitiesprovided by the growth process Targeted pro-poorpolicies and programmes in some countries enabledthe poor to benefit from economic growth leadingto accelerated poverty reduction and improvedMDG indicators

BROAD-BASED ANDINCLUSIVE GROWTHFOR ACCELERATEDMDG ACHIEVEMENTSeveral of the country assessments point to theimportance of national policies in promoting andfostering broad-based shared growth and theirimpact on poverty Without concerted domesticefforts and the right policies high growth need nottrickle down to the poor at all In some countrieshigh growth resulted in no consequential reduction inpoverty This was especially true in the case ofresource-rich LDCs such as Cambodia Yemen

Mongolia and Sierra Leone which exemplified theldquoresource curserdquo syndrome One country assessmentnoted that ldquoSierra Leone failed to capitalize on thecommodity boom of the last few yearshellipunlike manyother commodity exporters the country did not buildup reservesrdquo

Many of the country assessments also noted thatgovernments were cognizant of the fact that growthin many instances had by-passed the poor andvulnerable groups in the population that wideningdisparities and inequalities had led to developmentgains being concentrated in certain regions of thecountry whereas regions where the poor lived andworked were being left behind It is also for thisreason that several countries focused their efforts forMDG achievements at the sub-national level specif-ically in regions and areas with high concentrationsof poor and vulnerable households Regional develop-ment strategies and area-based developmentprogrammes for MDG achievements are currentlybeing implemented in several countries including inAlbania Colombia and Indonesia

Colombiarsquos Millennium Municipalities Strategyis being implemented in 71 of the most vulnerablemunicipalities in the country where the total popula-tion includes nearly one million people Eachmunicipality where the strategy is being applied fallsbelow national and departmental averages for mostsocial indicators related to the MDGs The initiativeaims to combat the pervasive inequality that existsnot only between regions of the country but alsowithin the Departamentos Inequalities are so deepthat many rural municipalities have comparable socialindicators to Sub-Saharan African countries whileurban areas generally present highly favorable socialindicators

The poorest municipalities of the five selectedDepartamentos are being targeted by the ldquoMillenniumMunicipalitiesrdquo and they receive priority considera-tion for national public policies and internationalcooperation aimed at MDG achievement A packageof basic strategic actions is also implemented in eachof the selected municipalities including

A nutrition programme for breastfeedingmothers

Projects for income generation with emphasis onyouth and women



Programmes for adult literacy

Universal immunization for children under fiveyears of age and

Nutritional complements for children under fiveamong others

Accelerating progress towards income povertyreduction is a special challenge for those countrieswith both low growth and high and growing levels ofincome inequality Low growth also affects govern-ment revenues which limits the resources available tofinance public services in MDG sectors includinghealth and education It is for these reasons thatmany have argued that for these countries ldquothe focuson problems arising from low-growth performance isfully justifiedrdquo (Bourguignon 2009)

To sum up domestic policies are of criticalimportance both to accelerate progress towards theMDGs and also to take advantage of opportunitiesoffered by the global economy Without the rightdomestic policies and effective focus on promotingbroad-based inclusive growth even the most encour-aging global environment would yield little progress

34

Several countries focused their efforts forMDG achievements at the sub-national levelspecifically in regions and areas with highconcentrations of poor and vulnerable households

Box 22 Albaniarsquos RegionalDevelopment Strategy

Kukes the poorest region in Albania launched theKukes MDG Regional Development Strategy in 2004The strategy a long-term regional developmentframework consists of three parts (i) the process offormulating a strategy that emphasizes consultationand participation (ii) an analysis of regional trendsand development opportunities and (iii) the strategyitself specifying regional projects programmes goalstargets indicators and resources needed for success

The strategyrsquos main objective is to help securesustainable livelihoods for the citizens of the Kukesregion by creating employment opportunities in thereconstruction and rehabilitation of small communityinfrastructure Priority projects have included thereconstruction of rural roads electricity infrastructurewater supply and irrigation systems community healthcenters education facilities sanitation and seweragesystems and marketing facilities for small trade

This large scale effort has resulted in a number ofoutputs that have contributed to local MDGachievement including the construction of 16 roadsand 13 irrigation canals the installation of 72 km ofelectric systems and 6 bridges and the constructionof 8 new schools and rehabilitation of 17 othersHealth centers water supply infrastructure andsewage systems have also been built

REDUCING HUNGER ANDFOOD INSECURITYTrends in the proportion of people suffering fromhunger globally indicate that after an initial declinein hunger prevalence from 20 percent in 199092 to alittle over 16 percent in 200305 hunger rates beganto climb and reached 17 percent in 200507 In justfive years 75 million people were added to the totalnumber of undernourished between 2003 and 2007(FAO 2008)

In aggregate there were 923 million undernour-ished people in the world in 2007 ndash an increase of 80million people since 199092 Half of the hungry arefrom farming families surviving on marginal landsone in five are landless labourers and a quarter arefrom shanty towns that surround big cities indeveloping countries The highest incidence ofundernourishment is in the Caribbean followed bySub-Saharan Africa while the highest numberresides in South Asia According to the InternationalFood Policy Research Institutersquos latest Global HungerIndex 29 countries are suffering from alarming orextremely alarming levels of hunger (IFPRI 2009)

Rather than making rapid progress towardsachieving the target of reducing hunger40 we aremoving increasingly towards a world with morehunger and food insecurity

Those who are most dependent on agriculture fortheir livelihoods are also most vulnerable to thedegradations and indignity of being deprived of foodAgriculture accounts for a smaller and decliningproportion of most countriesrsquo GDP Yet the share ofthe labour force dependent on agriculture is large inmany developing countries In Sub Saharan Africaagriculture accounts for 34 percent of GDP onaverage however 64 percent of the labour force islinked to this sector (WDR 2008) With hungerconcentrated among the rural poor in many develop-ing countries growth in the agriculture sector will beessential for both reducing hunger prevalence andpromoting broad-based shared growth

Improvements in conditions in rural areas havebeen noted to have positive effects on povertyreduction Based on data from 80 countries for the1980-2001 period it was found that growth inagriculture was 27 times more effective in reducingthe incidence of extreme poverty in the poorestcountries (Christiansen and Demery 2007)

Agricultural growth depends critically on invest-ments in rural infrastructure (irrigation roadstransport power and telecommunications) as well ason investments in markets rural finance and researchand extension services Yet growth in the agriculturesector has been slow Although improvements inagricultural productivity have been closely linked toinvestments in research and development increasesin public research in developing countries especiallyin Sub-Saharan Africa have declined sharply in thelast decade (World Development Report 2008)

Further discriminatory macroeconomic and tradepolicies and declining ODA to the agriculture sectorhave aggravated the situation New challenges for thesector include adverse impacts of climate changerapidly depleting natural resources such as land andwater slower yield growths competition for resourcesfrom bio-fuels and increased consumption of animalproducts (IAASTD 2008)

Macroeconomic and trade policies ndash and morerecently bio-fuel policies ndash have impacted foodsecurity in many developing countries Macroeconomicvariables impacting food prices include exchangeinterest and wage rates Exchange rates determineboth the food prices that producers will get whenthey export their produce and the prices of importedfood with which they have to compete There isno single policy prescription for countries anddetermining the right balance in exchange rates forproducers and consumers would need to be consid-ered on a country-by-country basis

Prevailing interest rates impact the affordabilityof credit for farmers and for others involved inagriculture They also affect the amount of invest-ments made in a countryrsquos economy Wage ratesimpact farmers who hire others to work in their fields


40 Monitoring the MDG on hunger is complicated by the fact that two different indicators are used to monitor progress on this target Both indicatorsindicate very different regional prevalence rates of hungerThe FAO indicator on undernourishment measures the share of the population thatis suffering from insufficient availability of caloriesThe share of the population that is undernourished appears to be highest in the Caribbeanfollowed by Sub-Saharan Africa and South AsiaWhen the indicator of ldquochildhood under-nutritionrdquo is used South Asia has far higher rates followedby Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean (Bourguignon 2008)


and also the incomes of landless labourers All ofthese rates have direct impacts on the ability tosecure the right to food by different groups and theinterests of all these groups need to be adequatelyconsidered when determining policiesIndeed many of the country assessments across

all regions noted that food insecurity is a criticaldomestic policy issue that is linked to the need forbroad-based growth According to the TajikistanLiving Standard Survey ldquo24 percent of the populationexperienced inadequate food consumption in 2007The poorest 20 percent of the population consumeless than 2100 Kcal per day whereas those in thelowest consumption decile consume only 1500 Kcalper day Even among non-poor households 20percent can [only] afford less than three meals a dayAmong the extreme poor the share of householdswith food insufficiency increases from 45 percent inthe autumn to 75 percent during late winterrdquo

The Joint Food Security Assessment conducted inTajikistan by the Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO) the World FoodProgramme (WFP) and the United Nations ChildrenrsquosFund (UNICEF) in 2008 concluded that some22 million Tajikistanis were experiencing foodinsecurity and that 800000 of them were found tobe severely food insecure and in need of immediateassistance The 30 percent increase in food prices in2008 was a major factor in the high incidence of foodinsecurity during that year

An over-dependence on oil exports for foreignexchange income coupled with low productivity inagriculture has exacerbated food insecurity inTimor-Leste affecting approximately 40 percentof the population The assessment for Timor-Leste

states ldquoThe [agriculture] sector is trapped in a low-productivity subsistence state Since 80 percent of thepopulation earns its living on agricultural activitiesdiversifying into [more productive] agriculturalactivities from petroleum will help lessen the depend-ence on imported food and at the same timestimulate supply Increases in agricultural productiv-ity through input provision including seeds fertiliz-ers and water management technologies are urgentlyneeded A related issue is lack of legally recognizedland tenure systemsrdquo

The assessment for Togo reveals that in terms ofindicators on weight insufficiency all the surveyscarried out since 1988 show that the nutritionalindices are clearly above the thresholds accepted bythe World Health Organization (WHO) In 2006the underweight prevalence was 26 percent Furtherpoverty was strongly correlated to undernourishmentsince 642 percent of the poor population isundernourished The principal constraint on thealleviation of poverty and hunger in Togo was foundto be the poor performance of the agricultural sectorespecially since 1993 Agriculture contributes up to40 percent of GDP but low productivity and massiveunder investment in the sector accounted for very lowgrowth rates in agriculture and also in the economyldquoGrowth has not been strong enough to bring aboutan increase in household incomes to enable them tocompensate for price increases As a result per capitaGDP fell by 14 percent in 2007 and by 08 percentin 2008 further exacerbating the economic situationof householdsrdquo (Togo assessment)

Policies to combat hunger and food insecuritymust focus on supporting small-scale farmers byincreasing investments targeted towards small-holder

36

With hunger concentrated among therural poor in many developing countriesgrowth in the agriculture sector will beessential for both reducing hunger prevalenceand promoting broad-based shared growth

requirements easing access to credit for small-scalefarmers supporting land and asset redistribution andeliminating biases towards women farmers Legalempowerment mechanisms to increase security ofland tenure and access to land for the landlessshould be promoted in Brazil land reform has beensuccessful in increasing beneficiary income five-foldin Vietnam and China consequent to the landreform programme both countries experienced rapidagricultural growth and reductions in hunger foodinsecurity and poverty

Given the key role of women in agricultureprevailing legal and social biases against womenrsquosparticipation in agriculture need to be removed Thiscan be done in part by adopting land ownership lawsthat allow womenrsquos ownership of land removingdiscrimination against women in legislation ndash relatedto such areas as inheritance contracting wages anddivorce ndash and by promoting participation of womenin local user groups cooperatives and in other

decision-making bodies Creating rural institutionssuch as public agriculture banks micro-financegroups and financial cooperatives can be importantmeans to expand the financing options for small-scale farmers

The difference that focused attention on theagricultural sector can make in the context ofpromoting broad-based growth and reducing ruralhunger and poverty rates is highlighted by thecountry assessment for Ethiopia The Ethiopianeconomy is predominantly agricultural The sectorcontributes about 50 percent to GDP generates 90percent of the countryrsquos export earning and employs85 percent of the population Reforms in this sectoralong with increased agricultural investments havecontributed to the countryrsquos robust economic growthincluding dramatic increases in agricultural produc-tion and productivity As a result the household foodsecurity situation is showing an upward trend From200304 to 200607 agriculture industry and the


UNPhotoFredNoy


service sectors registered average annual growth ratesof 127 percent 106 percent and 115 percentrespectively Thus although the major source ofgrowth in the economy has been agriculture it hasbeen complemented by strong performance in themanufacturing construction and service sectors aswell ndash ie it has been broad-basedSignificantly poverty reduction in Ethiopia has

been more pronounced in rural areas and the foodsecurity situation is improving Some of the initiativesto promote agricultural growth and food security in thecountry include a menu-based extension programmeto support commercialization of smallholder agricul-ture expansion of cooperatives the Food SecurityProgramme and the Productive Safety Net Programmewhich targets chronically food insecure areas andcommunities and supports them in building assetsand livelihoods The program works to both helpbridge the income gap of chronically food insecurehouseholds while supporting communities to buildproductive assets by engaging them in public worksprogrammes It aims to reach 829 million chronicallyfood insecure households in 287 Waredas (districts) ofthe country

Typically national policies to mitigate hungerand address the issue of food insecurity appear tohave focused less on addressing the need for broad-

based growth and more on introducing social safetynets of different kinds41 Countries have adopted arange of safety net programmes to address hungerand other sector needs important for MDG achieve-ment depending on administrative and institutionalcapacities access to resources and the nature andextent of food insecurity among other factorsConditional cash transfers food ration subsidiesfood for work or public works programmes supple-mentary food programmes food stamps vouchersand coupons are some of the most commonlyadopted safety net programmes Annex 22 lists thekey features of each of these initiatives

The aim of safety net programmes should be toreach all people suffering from hunger and foodinsecurity especially among the most vulnerablegroups It has been argued that the most effectiveway of addressing this is by adopting a layeredapproach since a single safety net is unlikely to reacheveryone in the intended population due to gaps incoverage and exclusion errors (Lahoti 2009)

One example of this layered approach is whena broad safety net programme such as a publicworks employment programme is accompanied withsupplementary feeding programmes directed atchildren and women or cash transfer programmesdirected towards women ndash since these groups are

38

Policies to combat hunger and food insecuritymust focus on supporting small-scale farmersby increasing investments targeted towardssmall-holder requirements easing access to creditfor small-scale farmers supporting land andasset redistribution and eliminating biasestowards women farmers

41 The FAO defines social safety nets as cash or in-kind transfer programmes that seek to reduce poverty by redistributing wealth andor protecthouseholds against income shocks Social safety nets seek to introduce a minimal level of well-being a minimum level of nutrition or help house-holds manage risk (FAO 2003)

likely to be missed by a broader safety net schemeAchieving the MDG target of reduction in

hunger prevalence will require that national policymakers adopt macroeconomic and agriculturalsector strategies that are consistent with theobjectives of achieving food security and that layeredsocial safety-net programmes are adopted with theobjective of ensuring food for all Also important isthe need to ensure that political will remains focusedon this objective

The difference that focused policy action andpolitical will can make is illustrated by the case ofIndia One in two children in India suffers fromsome form of malnutrition (NFHS 2006) Economicgrowth though impressive in the last decade has notreduced malnutrition GDP growth averaged 65percent annually between 199899 and 200506 yetmalnutrition among children under five decreasedless than seven percent over the entire period Evenwith better food security access to health serviceslower poverty and higher per capita income than

Sub-Saharan Africa India performs far worse interms of the nutritional status of children Whileaggregate levels of malnutrition are shockingly highthe picture is further exacerbated by significantinequalities across states and socio-economic groups ndashwith rural areas the poorest and scheduled tribes andcastes the worst affected

Indiarsquos main child development programme ndashthe Integrated Child Development Servicesprogramme (ICDS) - started more than 30 yearsago and is the worldrsquos largest initiative tacklingnutrition for women and children It provides arange of services including supplementary feedingimmunization health check-ups and referrals healthand nutrition education to adult women micronutri-ent supplementation and preschool education forthree to six year olds

But it has had little or no impact on improvingthe situation in India Low priority given forinterventions related to improving caring practiceslimited reach of ICDS to children under three and


Box 23 Jamaicarsquos Conditional CashTransfer ProgrammeThe Programme for Advancement through Health and Education (PATH)

Jamaicarsquos PATH programme was created in 2001 to replace three former social assistance programs which werefragmented and costly to operate and did not have the desired outreach and impact As a nationwide conditional cashtransfer programme PATH provides grants to poor and vulnerable families contingent on school and health clinicattendanceThe income effect of these additional funds helps families to secure more adequate caloric intake

The health grant is contingent on participants making the minimum number of prescribed preventative visits to healthcare clinics by children less than six years of age the elderly and disabled living in the household Infants aged one andunder must have one health visit every two months while the other eligible household members need to make onlyone visit every six monthsThe education grant is for children aged 6-17 and is given to those in the programme whoattend at least 85 percent of classes each monthThe grant equals about $10 per month for each eligible beneficiary inthe household so if a family has five eligible members it receives approximately $50 if each member meets the conditions

A recent impact study done by Mathematica Policy Research Inc has shown that client satisfaction is high and thepoorest quintile is being served by this programme at much higher rates than other welfare programmes in JamaicaThe study also determined that the programme has a significant and positive impact on health clinic usage for preven-tative reasons as well as on school attendanceThere was a 30 percent increase in the mean number of health clinicvisits and a 25 percent increase in school attendance In addition parents were less likely to cite ldquohousehold could notprovide lunchrdquoas a reason for school absences

SourceMathematica 2007


women lack of political will low public awarenessabout nutrition and public services and inadequatespending on nutrition and health policies are themain reasons for the poor performance of nutritionpolicies in India Several states however includingKerala Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh havemade important progress in reducing malnutritionover the years Using simple focused and innovativemethods the Tamil Nadu Integrated NutritionProgramme (TINP) has been able to reduce severemalnutrition by half in the villages where it wasimplemented (Gragnolati 2005)This teaches us a few valuable lessons non-

inclusive economic growth on its own does notreduce hunger or food insecurity Having policies in

place without a concerted effort to evolve them and alack of political will can only lead to failure At thesame time success in parts of India demonstratesthat focused efforts can reap rewards

Appropriate domestic policies are only part ofthe solution when it comes to food security andhunger The recent global food crisis brought intosharp focus the critical role of international tradepolicies and food price volatility both of which canundermine national efforts to promote the objectivesof food security and hunger mitigation Globalpolicies too will need to be congruent if a sustainablesolution to this urgent development challenge is tobe found Trade barriers preventing developingcountry agricultural exports from entering developed

40

Box 24 Project Zero Hunger in Brazil

Soon after getting elected in 2003 President Lula of Brazil announced eradication of hunger as the Governmentrsquoshighest priority and started project Fome Zero (Zero Hunger) to address the needs of the estimated 44 million Brazilianssuffering from hunger Inspired by the MDG to cut hunger by half and by theWorld Food Summit in 1996 the initiativeaims to reduce hungermalnutrition and extreme poverty Fome Zero brings together a diverse range of around 30social initiativesmany in the areas of food security and farmingThese include Bolsa Famılia (Family Allowance) which isthe worlds largest conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme integrating four previous CCTs Bolsa Escola for boostingschool attendance Bolsa Alimentaccedilatildeo for improving maternal nutrition and guarding against child labor CartatildeoAlimentaccedilatildeo a food entitlement scheme and Auxiacutelio Gas a cooking gas subsidy Other initiatives include school feedingprogrammes cisterns in semi-arid areas community kitchens support for family farming and employment opportuni-ties for the poor

Spending on Bolsa Famılia has risen from 11 to 25 percent of total government expenditure increasing from 02 to 05percent of GDP from 2003 to 2006 Bolsa Alimentaccedilatildeo provides cash transfers to households in the range of $625 to $18per month depending on number of beneficiaries in the household Pregnant and lactating women and children fromsix months to seven years of age are eligible for program benefits The conditions of the programme include regularattendance for antenatal care and for health and nutrition education sessions for mothers attendance at facility-basedchild growth monitoring sessions and compliance with vaccination schedules for children aged six months to six years(Basett 2008)

The scheme has encountered several problems due to poor targeting supply side constraints such as lack of healthservices (MSD 2005) fragmented administration and issues regarding registration of beneficiariesThe Brazilian govern-ment has tried to resolve some of these problems by integrating the schemes standardizing procedures and bringingall the programmes under a single ministry In its first three years the number of beneficiaries doubled to 30 million bythe end of 2006 it was projected to reach 44 million people the entire target population

There has been no comprehensive evaluation of the programme and some evaluations of the individual schemes showmixed results According to a national study on food security of the 18 million lsquofood insecurersquo people only 53 millionbenefited by income transfer programmes (Hall 2006)This shows that more effort is needed to reach the countryrsquos foodinsecure population


Box 25 Implications of the Food Crisis on Poverty and Hunger

The world experienced a dramatic increase in world commodity prices between 2005 and mid-2008 During the firsthalf of 2008 international nominal prices of all major food commodities reached their highest levels in nearly 50 yearswhile prices in real terms were the highest in nearly 30 yearsThe FAO index of nominal food prices doubled between2002 and 2008 By mid-2008 real food prices were 64 percent higher than their 2002 levels Even though they havedeclined since mid-2008 they remain significantly above their 2005 levels

The increase in food prices had a large adverse impact on poverty and hunger According to analysis done by FAO thetotal import bill for food was estimated at $812 billion in 2007 29 percent more than the previous year and the highestlevel on record Developing countries as a whole could face an increase of 33 percent in aggregate food import billscoming on the heels of a 13 percent increase in 2006 Similar increases have occurred for LDCs and Low Income FoodDeficit Countries (LIFDCs) (FAO 2008b)

The impact of food price increases on households depends on their position in the market ndash whether they are net foodbuyers or net food sellers Net food buyer households lose out from food price increases while net food sellers gain whenconsidering only the first order effectsThe consumption-production pattern of the household and changes in specificcommodity prices need to be considered to ascertain the actual impact on a particular householdThe majority of analysesconclude that high food prices are bad for the poor because most of the poor households are net food buyers even inrural areas (Christiansen and Demery 2006 Seshan and Umali-Deininger 2007 ByerleeMyers and Jayne 2006Warr 2005)

Simulations also show that in many countries first round effects of a price increase could be anti-poor (Hoekman andOlarreaga 2007 Ivanic and Martin 2008) In addition urban households are impacted more severely compared to ruralhouseholds as a larger proportion are net food buyers

According to FAO analysis the poorest households in both urban and rural areas are the worst affected In an analysis ofseven countries rural households in only two countries ndash Pakistan and Vietnam ndash seem to benefit from the food priceincrease but even in these countries the poorest households do not benefit In its analysis FAO found that three-fourthsof rural households and 97 percent of urban households are net food buyers and are hence adversely impacted due tothe food crisis

Ivanic and Martin (2008) analyzed the impact of increases in international staple prices in nine developing countriesThey concluded that price increases occurring between 2005 and 2007 had adverse impacts on the majority of thecountries in their sample and resulted in a 45 percent increase in national poverty rates Applying the same increase toall low-income developing countries results in an increase in the number of the poor by 105 million people globally Asthe rate of poverty has been reduced by an average of 068 percent annually since 1984 this implies a loss of almostseven years in poverty reduction

Using domestic price data and a bigger sample of countries Rafael E De Hoyos and Denis Medvedev (2009) concludethat the price hike has increased the extreme poverty headcount worldwide by 17 percent with significant regionalvariation In Eastern Europe Central Asia and Latin America the poverty headcount remains roughly unchangedwhile itincreased in East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa by approximately 6 percent and 24 percent respectivelyThey claim that though prices have decreased for now the increasing demand for first generation bio-fuels may lead toa further increase in prices and by 2010 will result in poverty increasing by 09 percent

The underlying causes of the food crisis are complex and include factors such as the use of food crops and a shift inagricultural resources to satisfy bio-fuel demand speculation on commodity futures markets adverse weatherconditions low food stocks high energy and fertilizer prices and export bans on commodities which are imposed byseveral big exporting countries in response to food crises to ensure food security for their citizens


country markets volatility of commodity prices andrestricted financing mechanisms not only inhibitgrowth they also aggravate the problem of foodinsecurity and hungerIncreased agricultural trade can offer opportuni-

ties for the poor It can open export markets forhigh-value products that can increase the incomefor farmers and make them more food secureBut it can also lead to adverse impacts on foodsecurity if proper institutions and safeguards arenot in place The small-scale farm sector in thepoorest countries has experienced a net loss dueto the opening up of agricultural markets Thereasons for this include the large agriculturalsubsidies in developed countries that depress worldprices and lead to the dumping of their productson international markets and to higher tariffs forprocessed commodities

Clearly then policy coherence at the global levelis more important than ever Progress on tradeagreements that further open markets in richcountries to products from poor countries is animportant condition for growth and food security indeveloping countries especially for those reliant onprimary agricultural commodities Better regulationof the financial system is a must and as the currentglobal crisis makes evident strengthened ldquoglobaleconomic governance is no less important for theMDGs than the creation of new funds for health oreducationrdquo (Bourguignon 2008)

SUSTAINING POVERTYREDUCTION ACHIEVEMENTSEMPLOYMENT CREATIONAND INCLUSIVE GROWTHEnsuring that the poor are included in the opportu-nities and benefits provided by the growth process ismost meaningfully done when growth raises theincomes of the poor ndash by absorbing them in employ-ment opportunities and raising their real income

Recognizing the inextricable links betweenemployment creation and poverty reduction MDG 1includes a specific target to ldquoAchieve full and produc-tive employment and decent work for all includingwomen and young peoplerdquo The indicators formonitoring progress of this target include

Growth rate of GDP per person employed

Employment-to-population ratio

Proportion of employed people living below $1(PPP) per day and

Proportion of own-account and contributingfamily workers in total employment

The overwhelming concentration of the poor inagriculture coupled with slow growth in this sectorhas led to depressed wages and incomes for the ruralpoor in many developing countries Further theabsence of broad-based growth even in countriesthat experienced fairly high rates of growth meant

42

Better regulation of the financial systemis a must and as the current global crisismakes evident strengthened globaleconomic governance is no less importantfor theMDGs than the creationof new funds for health or education


42 National Poverty LineWhereWDI national poverty data was not available data from the National MDG Reports was used See Annex 21 for details

43 Most recent statistics available

44 Vulnerable employment is defined as own account workers and family workers (ILO 2009)

Table 28GrowthPoverty Reduction and Unemployment


1995-2007

PovertyReduction(late 90s tomid rsquo00s)42

Gini(mid 00s)

UnemploymentRate43

YouthUnemployment43

VulnerableEmployment43

Bangladesh 54 22 0334 4 7 85

Botswana 63 36 0605 19 40 14

Cambodia 85 3 0417 2 12 84

Colombia 35 23 0586 11 15 43

El Salvador 32 27 0524 7 12 36

Ethiopia 65 15 0300 5 8 91

Ghana 48 30 0408 10 16 NA

India 69 22 0368 5 10 NA

Indonesia 38 0 0343 11 29 63

Kyrgyzstan 41 72 0303 9 15 50

Mongolia 55 1 NA 14 20 60

Morocco 38 40 0395 11 16 58

Tanzania 56 13 0346 5 NA 88

Average 50 23 0400 87 167 61

SourceWDI DatabaseWorld Bank

that high growth could co-exist with relatively highrates of unemployment with employment creationtaking place in vulnerable employment and in thenon-formal sector44 This is corroborated by data thatpoints out that ldquoin 51 out of 73 countries for whichdata is available the share of wages in total incomedeclined over the past two decades even when therewas relatively rapid growth The quality of jobscreated has been such that even in a period ofprogress such as 2007 on average four out of tenworkers were poorrdquo (ILO 2008b) The poor quality ofemployment itself was due to the fact that a signifi-cant proportion of jobs created involved underem-ployment and or were precarious ndash without benefits

or labour protection of any kindThe country assessments confirm the trends in

the literature Botswana is an example of a highgrowth country that experienced high rates ofunemployment among both youth and the totallabour force High inequality is evidence of this lackof broad-based growth In Cambodia which had anaverage growth rate of 85 percent over the pastdecade 84 percent of workers were in vulnerableemployment which may partially explain both thepoor rates of poverty reduction and high incomeinequality Other countries with high rates of vulner-able employment including Mongolia TanzaniaEthiopia and Indonesia had negligible or very low


rates of poverty reduction Youth unemployment rateswere nearly double the rates of general unemploy-ment on averageThus even prior to the current global economic

crisis unemployment rates and equally importantthe share of workers in vulnerable and informalemployment was alarming In 2007 unemploymentrates were highest in North Africa and the MiddleEast followed by the CIS countries Sub-SaharanAfrica and Latin America (Table 29) Althoughunemployment rates are low in Asia and the regionaccounted for 57 percent of global employmentcreation in 2008 it should be noted that labourmarket conditions are often extremely harsh Asiaalso has the highest share of working poor of allregions Although this trend has been declining inthe last 10 years around four-fifths of all employedworkers in the region were still classified as workingpoor in 2007 (ILO 2009b)

The MDG country assessments noted thatemployment creation was a key national priority formost countries that were surveyed Many of theassessments pointed to the country specific character-

istics of unemployment and underemployment andthe need for policies that target employment creationamong specific groups of the population extremelyhigh youth unemployment was reported for countriesin the Arab States (Morocco Syria Bahrain) and inpost-conflict countries (Sierra Leone Timor-LesteTogo Nepal) others reported the concentration ofunderemployment among the rural poor (TanzaniaBangladesh Lao PDR Cambodia Malawi) and yetothers pointed to limited employment opportunitieson account of the absence of broad based growth(Mongolia Yemen Indonesia)

Curiously although job creation appeared to be akey priority for most countries in the context ofachieving poverty reduction the policy responsetypically appeared to be limited to skill retrainingprogrammes or to livelihood and income-generatingprogrammes targeted at youth vulnerable communi-ties or at specific undeveloped geographical regionsGenerally it was assumed that job creation andemployment security would be an outcome of growthin the private sector and of the growth process itself45

For the most part when it came to mass employ-

44

Table 29Unemployment RatesWorld and Regions ()

Total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

World 63 64 62 63 64 65 64 63 60 57

Central amp SE Europe(non-EU) amp CIS

124 127 108 103 101 101 99 94 91 84

East Asia 47 47 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 43

South East Asia ampthe Pacific

48 51 50 58 60 62 64 64 60 54

South Asia 41 44 46 46 46 47 53 53 52 50

Latin America ampthe Caribbean

84 87 86 89 91 91 85 81 74 71

Middle East 106 100 95 109 108 121 92 98 101 95

North Africa 128 133 141 136 134 131 123 115 105 106

Sub-Saharan Africa 74 79 79 81 81 82 79 79 78 77

Source ILO 2009b

45 This is explicitly reflected in national poverty reduction strategies and national development plans of many countries

ment creation the public sector stepped in mainlyduring times of economic and political crises Thelarge scale Food for Work Program in Bangladeshthe Expanded Public Works Program in South Africaand Argentinarsquos Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados publicemployment programme were emergency responsesto chronic food insecurity mass social unrest andmacroeconomic crises respectively (Paul 2009 Milleret al 2009) Annex 23 lists the key features of thesedifferent public employment programmes

Yet ldquodecentrdquo employment is the economic powerby which poor people change their susceptibility topoverty morbidity hunger and disease Large-scalepublicly supported employment creation programmescan be an important policy instrument in developingcountries where unemployment and underemploy-ment are high the employment intensity of growth islow or declining and where macroeconomic shocks ornatural disasters can undermine livelihoods andnecessitate income-stabilizing interventions

More recently there is renewed interest on thepart of national planners to examine how large-scalepublic employment programmes can serve as vehiclesfor sustainable poverty reduction and not only as crisismitigation measures Indiarsquos National Rural EmploymentGuarantee Scheme is one such initiative

The focus of this chapter has been on the needfor inclusive and broad-based growth as a keyelement for sustainable poverty reduction and foraddressing the challenges of hunger food insecurityunemployment and underemployment In somemiddle-income countries and in those countries withfast growth filling MDG gaps may essentially be aquestion of implementing adequate MDG-orientedpolicies since growth should provide the budgetaryresources needed to implement such policies In othercountries accelerating broad-based growth andgenerating budget resources may be just as importantas policies targeted directly at the MDGs For thesecountries then a focus on problems that arise fromlow growth is fully justified

The focus on economic growth is justified notonly from the perspective of making progress towardsachievement of the Goal on income poverty but isequally important from the perspective of acceleratingprogress towards meeting the other Goals as wellThis is in part because growth should progressivelyweaken the budget constraint for public finance andease implementation of programmes needed for

MDG achievementsNonetheless a focus on broad-based inclusive

growth by itself will not be sufficient for a sustainableMDG strategy It will have to be complemented byappropriate sectoral policies Achieving the non-income MDGs will also require choosing appropriatepolicy instruments that can best accelerate progress onthe various MDGs Hence domestic policy choices atboth the macroeconomic and sectoral levels will beimportant in determining MDG outcomes

Box 26 IndiaNational RuralEmployment Guarantee Act (NREGA)

NREG schemes are not simply programmes of jobcreation but are also a statement of labour rightsand the governmentrsquos responsibility in employmentThe Ministry of Rural Development states that theobjective of the Act and the programmes areldquotoprovide for the enhancement of livelihood securityof households in rural areas of the country byproviding at least 100 days of guaranteed wageemployment in every financial year to everyhousehold whose adult members volunteer to dounskilled manual workrdquoThe categories of work inthe initiative mainly include water conservation andharvesting drought-proofing by forestation andplantation canal and other micro-irrigation workhorticulture plantation land development and floodprotection and drainage works aimed at providingall-weather connectivity in rural areas

NREGA first became operational in February 2006 in200 districts within two-and-a-half years it hadbeen extended to the rest of the country During thefirst full year of the programme employment wasprovided to 21 million households which increasedto 31 million during the second year

NREGA is considered an important step towards therealization of the right to work (Sood 2006) It isexpected to enhance peoplersquos livelihood security ona sustained basis by developing economic andsocial infrastructure in rural areas As Sood notesone of the most distinguishing features of theprogramme is its approach towards empoweringcitizens to play an active role in the implementationof employment guarantee schemes through GramSabhas social audits participatory planning andother activities


From Goals to Outcomes

Promoting AccountabilityTransparency and Responsivenessof Institutions

Inclusive Participation

Delivering the MDGs at theSub-National and Local Level

Capacity Conundrums

Partnerships and Politics

CHAPTER THREE

UNDERSCORINGDEMOCRATICGOVERNANCE

UNPhotoNayan

Tara

Democratic governance is seen as essential for bothcreating an enabling environment for MDG progress

and for imbuing national and local institutionswith systems processes and values that respect

peoplersquos human rights and fundamental freedoms

FROM GOALSTO OUTCOMESSince progress in human development is conditionedon an expansion in peoplersquos choices and opportuni-ties democratic governance as a process ofempowering people and communities to make thosechoices is seen as an essential means towards humandevelopment in the longer-term and MDG achieve-ments in the medium-term

Democratic governance is defined as a set ofvalues and principles that underpin state-societyrelations allowing people ndash in particular the poor andmarginalized ndash to have a say in how they are governedin how decisions are made and implemented and inhow diverging opinions are mediated and conflictinginterests reconciled in accordance with the rule oflaw Democratic governance means that peoplersquoshuman rights and fundamental freedoms arerespected that they can hold their leaders to accountand that they are protected against arbitrary action intheir lives by government private institutions andother forces Democratic governance thus aims tomake governing institutions more responsive andaccountable and respectful of international normsand principles

It is for these reasons that governance is seen asthe missing link between anti-poverty efforts andpoverty reduction Even when countries try toimplement economic policies to foster inclusivegrowth and mount targeted efforts to achieve theMDGs inept or unresponsive institutions can nullifythe impact When governments are corrupt orunaccountable when the poor cannot get equitabletreatment or a fair hearing from undemocraticpolitical regimes and are unable to access publicservices from an unresponsive bureaucracy or becauseservices are diverted to local elites accelerated progresstowards MDG achievements will be unlikely

By emphasizing the means by which developmentgoals are translated into outcomes democraticgovernance addresses the how ndash the processesinstitutions and systems needed to yield collectivelyacceptable results For their part the MDGs definethe desired results without stipulating the nationalprocesses needed for their achievement

It is also for these reasons that democraticgovernance is seen as central to underpinning andanchoring MDG achievements and for creating theenabling environment that allows such achievementsto be secured This role of governance in acceleratingMDG achievement was highlighted by most of the30 country assessments but most especially by thetransition and post-conflict countries It is also forthis reason that several of these countries (MongoliaIraq and Albania among others) added an additionalGoal ndash MDG 9 ndash to highlight the need for goodgovernance and the rule of law The Albania assess-ment states that ldquothat prospects for meeting the

Box 31 Albania andMDG 9 ndashEstablish and Strengthen aGood Governance Process

At the UN Millennium Summit in September 2000Albania along with 190 other nations adopted theMillennium Declaration In July 2003 the countryrsquosParliament adopted a resolution regarding theMDGs thereby providing specific focus andattention on the responsibilities of government asspecified in the Declaration

Albania adopted an additional Goal to reflect itscommitment to democratic governanceGoal 9 seeksto ldquoEstablish and Strengthen a Good GovernanceProcessrdquo and has one target with a set of six indica-tors The target is to ldquoReform Overall State Systemsof Public Administration Legislation and Policies inAccordance with EU Standards of Justice Rule of Lawand Market Economies by 2015rdquo The indicators are

Political Voice and Accountability

Political Stability

Government Effectiveness

Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law

Control of Corruption

In the past few years Albania has made significantprogress towards meeting its governance targetsImprovement has been observed for all sixgovernance indicators Nonetheless in the areas ofgovernment effectiveness and political voice andaccountability Albania is still behind other countriesin the region Rule of law is at a low level and controlof corruption is insufficient


MDGs [in Albania] are closely tied to the quality ofgovernancehellip including governance effectivenesscorruption rule of law and judicial reform politicalaccountability and stabilityrdquo

The most important values and principles ofdemocratic governance which are also importantmeans of achieving the MDGs are congruent withthe most important human rights principles set outin a variety of UN declarations and conventionsincluding the following

ParticipationThe involvement of people indeveloping and implementing policies andprogrammes that affect them

Equity Non-Discrimination and InclusivenessPolicies programmes and institutions should takeaccount of the needs views and aspirations of allpeople in society with particular efforts beingmade not to discriminate against minoritymarginalized and indigenous groups Since allcitizens are of equal value they are entitled toequal treatment under the law as well as equitableaccess to opportunities services and resources

Gender Equality Policies programmes andinstitutions should deal equitably with bothwomen and men

Rules-basedAll persons institutions andentities public and private including the Stateitself are accountable to laws that are publiclypromulgated equally enforced and independentlyadjudicated It requires measures to ensureadherence to the principles of supremacy oflaw equality before the law accountability tothe law fairness in the application of the lawavoidance of arbitrariness and procedural andlegal transparency

Transparency The right of citizens to knowwhat public institutions are doing and how publicpolicies and programmes are being implemented

Accountability and ResponsivenessLawmakers government officials programmes andinstitutions should be held accountable for whatthey do and for how they do it

These principles and values can be applied to awide variety of social economic and politicalprocesses at all levels of society from the nationalstage to the community level They can and shouldbe applied in and between a broad range of state andnon-state institutions including civil society and theprivate sector

At present 84 developing countries have adopteda Right to Information Act or Freedom ofInformation Act or they are in advanced stages ofadopting one as a part of the fundamental right tofree speech and expression (Vleugels 2008) Thislegislation commonly provides a legal framework forthe right to access information recognizing thatinformation is critical for a well-functioningdemocracy which requires informed citizens freeexchange of ideas and open debates Most Right toInformation Acts have been seen as central foreffective governance and have been used as animportant tool to fight against poverty and toaccelerate progress towards MDG achievements

In India The Right to Information (RTI) Actwas passed by Parliament and fully implemented in2005 in all states of the country (except Jammu ampKashmir which are covered under a state law) Underthe provisions of the Act any citizen may requestinformation from a public authority ndash a body ofgovernment or ldquoinstrumentality of Staterdquo ndash which is


By emphasizing the means bywhich development goalsare translated into outcomes democratic governanceaddresses the how ndash the processes institutions andsystems needed to yield collectively acceptable results


required to reply expeditiously or within 30 daysThe Act specifies that citizens have a right to

Request any information (as defined)

Take copies of public documents

Inspect public documents public works46 andpublic records

Take certified samples of materials of work

Obtain information in form of printoutsdiskettes or in any other electronic mode

India presents important learning on the use ofRTI particularly on how to make RTI a reality forpoor people In Rajasthan a grassroots movementdemanded copies of employment contracts forworkers employed in public work programmes Indoing so the budget allocation for wages can beverified by the employees who actually serve in publicworks programmes As a result the poor workers ofRajasthan became actively engaged in this movement

and conducted a social audit which compared thegovernment budget allocation for public works withthe allocated wages for workers Through the socialaudit process the poor were empowered to demandaccountability from government After the socialaudit public hearings were organized at the locallevel These public hearings provided an opportunityfor the poor to speak for themselves The socialaudits drew extensive attention from the state andthroughout the country and as a result are beingmainstreamed into many national service deliveryprogrammes (UNDP 2008a)

Further the RTI also laid the groundwork forinitiating other landmark legislation that embodyhuman rights and democratic governance principlessuch as the Right to Employment (The NationalRural Employment Guarantee Act ndash for moreinformation see box 26) which has directlycontributed to improving the livelihoods of millionsof poor rural households

PROMOTINGACCOUNTABILITYTRANSPARENCY ANDRESPONSIVENESSOF INSTITUTIONSPromoting accountability in institutions is central toachieving pro-poor development outcomes All toooften even when resources are allocated they do notreach the actual beneficiaries because of a lack ofaccountability in the distribution or use of fundsResponsive and accountable governments can surelybenefit the poor Ensuring that societyrsquos resources areequitably distributed requires however additionalefforts such as making sure that corruption is rootedout and that accountability is embodied in structuresthat are transparent to all people

In the context of MDG achievements all thecountry assessments emphasized the need forpromoting transparency and accountability ofnational and local institutions especially thoseresponsible for implementing service deliveryprogrammes for health education nutrition and

50

Box 32Malawirsquos Freedom ofInformation Act

In Malawi the Constitution guarantees the right ofaccess to information in Article 37ldquoSubject to anyAct of Parliament every person shall have the rightto access all information held by the state or any ofits organs at any level of government in so far assuch information is required for the exercise of hisrightsrdquo Enabling legislation such as the Freedom ofInformation Bill which is currently being reviewedby Parliament is required to exercise this constitu-tional rightThe draft law is in line with internationalbest practice and includes an obligation for publicauthorities to publish certain information regardlessof whether a request has been made including thecontent of all decisions andor policies adoptedwhich affect the public and complaint mechanismsavailable to the public

46 The Indian RTI Law is distinct in that it provides for an investigation of public works as well as public records

agricultural services For example Tanzaniarsquos assess-ment states ldquoDemocratic deficits continue to hamperthe smooth implementation of governmentprogrammesrdquo The MDG assessment for Lao PDRnotes ldquoImproving public service delivery in ruralareas has a direct link to MDG achievementrdquo

Indeed several of the country assessmentspointed out that slow progress towards MDGachievements was linked to (i) poor service deliveryat local levels due to design flaws and lack of conver-gence or coordination with planning and deliverymechanisms at the district level (ii) a lack of flexibil-ity in the implementation and design of servicedelivery programmes needed for adapting to differentcontexts and conditions at the local level (iii) a lackof a consistent approach to the design of deliverymechanisms (iv) weak monitoring of service deliveryprogrammes at national and sub-national levels and(v) insufficient outcome-based evaluations thatcontribute to more effective service delivery

Monitoring service delivery programmes canhelp to identify implementation bottlenecks andimprove the design of service delivery mechanismsThe absence of effective monitoring at all levels inorder to enhance the effectiveness of healtheducation nutrition and livelihoods programmeswere noted by most of the country assessments

Other countries are strengthening monitoringcapacities of non-state actors to promote responsiveand accountable public institutions In Armenia forexample the capacity of the media is being strength-ened to monitor corruption in a variety of sectorsincluding health education and the environment Sixtelevision companies were contracted to produce andbroadcast more than 32 programmes including talkshows and debates with each episode exposing a newcorruption-related issue In some programmes streetpolls were conducted to solicit ldquoaverage citizenrdquo viewsof corruption issues that face their community Asmore episodes aired the polled participants becamemore confident and comfortable in voicing theirviews and the viewing audience became moreactively engaged as evidenced by higher call volumesand text messages received during the show Therewas also an improvement in quality and relevance ofthe questions being asked by viewers during theprogram Government authorities also became more

cooperative and responsive throughout theimplementation of the media project

In parallel civil society in Armenia is becomingmore aware of corruption issues to enhance participa-tory policy-making and support anti-corruption effortsparticularly in implementing and monitoring thegovernmentrsquos anti-corruption strategy in health andeducation sectors One hundred and thirty membersof 11 anti-corruption civil society organizationsreceived training in the use of the Anti-CorruptionParticipatory Monitoring Methodology along with44 educational and 22 medical institutions Themethodology provides data and information on theexisting corruption risks which civil society can useto make policy recommendations for consideration bygovernment authorities These actions enabled civilsociety groups in Armenia to provide analysis andrecommendations that were used as reference in anumber of policy documents including the secondAnti-Corruption Strategy (2007-2009)

In the Philippines a new initiative entitledldquoPromoting Procurement Transparency andEfficiency to Achieve the MDGsrdquo (PROTECTMDGs) aims to ensure that MDG achievement atthe local level is free from corruption It promotes theefficient and transparent delivery of MDG-relatedgoods and services in the education health water


UNPhotoW

FP


and environment sectors by establishing andstrengthening a participatory procurement system atthe local government level It is based on the premisethat obtaining cost-efficient goods services andinfrastructure in an open manner will free up moreresources to purchase additional goods resulting inbetter quality infrastructure and more efficient servicesDuring its first two years PROTECT MDGs

aims to upgrade the local procurement capacitiesof ten pilot cities so that they fully comply with thegovernmentrsquos Procurement Reform Act of 2003while also promoting local innovations aimed toto integrate UN-MDG concepts into the procure-ment system

The difference that community empowermentand political will can make in promoting moretransparent accountable and responsive institutionsfor more effective development outcomes isillustrated in Box 33

INCLUSIVE PARTICIPATIONResponsive transparent and accountable institutionsare an essential requirement if progress towards theMDGs is to be accelerated But if people wantgovernment to represent their interests they have tohold officials to account And for this they need tobe organized and have a voice that can be heard Thishas been the function of civil society organizationsthat have taken myriad forms ndash from communitygroups to political parties to trade unions

Civil society organizations in countries across allregions have used different approaches to fostergreater responsiveness and accountability of institu-tions Public Hearings Social Audits CommunityScore Cards Citizen Report Cards ParticipatoryPublic Expenditure and Budget Reviews ndash all ofthese are instruments that have been quite effectivein promoting the responsiveness and accountability ofpublic institutions while also simultaneously fostering

52

Box 33MiddayMeal Scheme in India

In 2001 the Indian Supreme Court in response to public interest litigation ordered all government and government-assisted primary schools to provide midday meals to all school childrenThis launched one of the largest school feedingschemes in the worldThe programme is designed to provide a cooked meal of 450 calories and 12 grams of protein toall children in schools up to the eighth grade including preschoolersThe federal government provides food grains atransportation subsidy and part of the cooking costs to state authorities who are responsible for implementing thescheme One hundred and ten million children are targeted to benefit in 2008-09 (GOI 2009)

The effort has encountered several problems in its implementation Due to lack of political will and infrastructureseveral states resisted implementation of the scheme in its initial phase Upper castes shunned it drawing attention tosocial inequality issuesThe quality of meals also varies ndash from cooked nutritious meals in Tamil Nadu to the provision ofonly take-home rations of identical non-nutritious meals everyday in some states Even with these problems due tosustained efforts of the Supreme Court and the Right to Food campaign coverage and quality has significantlyimproved over the yearsThe scheme has had significant impact on child nutrition school attendance and social equity(Dregraveze and Goyal 2003)

Tamil Naduwhere the scheme has been in existence since 1982 reveals some key elements of its success with thisprogramme Food has become an integral part of the school routine A nutritious cooked meal is provided daily inschools to students and to vulnerable adults including pregnant and lactating women In addition other important linksin the areas of health immunization de-worming and micronutrient supplementation have been established A majorfactor behind the schemersquos success has been the dual forces of political will from above and community pressure frombelow Political will from above has resulted in more attention towards hunger and nutrition issuesThere is also pressurefrom below as programmes become well acceptedThis dynamic has helped ensure that the scheme operates efficientlyand that there is retention of political will from above no matter which political party is in power (Dregraveze 2004)

more equitable and inclusive participation ofcommunities (Annex 31)

In Kyrgyzstan a citizen satisfaction survey wascarried out in 2008 to assess the quality of publicservices at the local level and to establish the founda-tion for a public service delivery monitoring systemPrior to the programme monitoring activities werelimited to preventing and investigating any misuse offunds they were not concerned with making qualityimprovements and citizen engagement was oftenlimited to registering a complaint The citizenrsquossatisfaction survey aimed to build state accountabilityto citizens regarding the quality of services that theyare provided with public money Through the initia-

tive 6000 respondents were polled in 120 villagesin all seven provinces of the country Services in fivesectors namely drinking water irrigation educationhealthcare and municipal services were chosen tobe the focus of the survey The services were assessedon the criteria of accessibility quality reliability andcost The results of the effort will be incorporatedinto a service improvement programme to beundertaken from 2009-2013 The survey wasenvisioned to be a first step in establishing anaccountability framework at the local level and willbe institutionalized to empower local institutionsto complete similar exercises in the future in orderto improve service delivery


Box 34 Community Score Cards

The Community Score Card (CSC) is a participatory monitoring tool used for performance evaluation of service deliveryat the local level It is a hybrid approach of social audits community monitoring and citizen report cards which use aninterface meeting between service providers and users that allow for immediate feedback on the quality and adequacyof services provided in the communityThe approach is an instrument to exact accountability and responsiveness fromservice providers and is an effective tool for strengthening citizen voice and community empowermentThe CSC is alsoused for tracking inputs and expenditures generating benchmark performance criteria needed to assess servicescomparing performance across facilities and geographic regions and for generating a feedback mechanism betweenproviders and users

The Government of The Gambia developed the Accountability and Participatory Monitoring and Evaluation Programmeto broaden citizenrsquos capacity and voice as well as to create a mechanism to improve service delivery using CommunityScore Cards Some 3500 stakeholders participated in the initiative in the health and education sectors Following anational workshop and training aimed at introducing all stakeholders to the Community Score Card process thefollowing activities were carried out for the selected facilities

Community mobilization and sensitization to discuss CSC objectivesmethodology significance and expectations

Input tracking to compare expected amenities with actual service provisions

Community performance scorecard preparation to evaluate the adequacy of amenities provided in the selectedhealth and education facilities

Service providers self-evaluation using standard and group defined indicators

An interface meeting to discuss performance assessments and observations bottlenecks inhibiting quality perform-ance and recommendations to improve service provision ndash including the development of an action plan and

Advocacy and dissemination of findings to obtain stakeholder feedback and implement recommendations

The Community Score-Card process in The Gambia enabled people to become more aware about the services to expectin their communities and helped to empower them to contribute to improving those servicesThe process created aself-help spirit as citizens participated in implementing the action plans which included contributing voluntaryfinancial support to improve health and education facilities

SourceWorld Bank Participatory Monitoring and Evaluation


DELIVERING THE MDGSAT THE SUB-NATIONALAND LOCAL LEVELDecentralizing decision-making to regional or localgovernment is generally assumed to create a moreconducive environment for poverty reduction ndashmainly by increasing efficiency in the delivery ofgovernment servicesDecentralization though has different meanings

Is it based solely on the de-concentration offunctions Or does it also include the devolution ofpolitical authority Unlike de-concentration devolu-tion involves the transfer of authority to elected localgovernments Local bodies then have authority tomake decisions independent of central governmentAnd if they are elected their decisions are more likelyto reflect the interests of local people

Whether the poor are organized enough toadvance their interests with local government goesbeyond the question of devolution ndash though anysystem of good governance must take this intoaccount Moreover if the poor are a minority evenbeing well-organized might not be enough to changetheir situation ndash though it increases the likelihoodthat others will take their interests into account

Participation also needs to be backed byresources Many of the poor in developing countriesare trapped in economically backward and resource-poor areas Conferring greater local decision-makingon them without giving them resources or the powerto generate resources is unlikely to make a dent inaccelerating progress for MDG achievements

In light of the decentralization process underwayin many developing countries and the consequentdelegation of responsibility for social service

54

Box 35 Social Audits andMDG 2

Using citizen-led social audits as an innovative measure to ensure transparency and hold the Government of Indiaaccountable for the indicators related to MDG-2 and public expenditure the Indian NGO Pratham has facilitated aqualitative look at service delivery in education focusing on educational attainment and literacy rates

With the new government in India four years ago declaring an emphasis on transparency and outcomes rather than onoutlays attention became focused on improving the status of the countryrsquos education systemThe massive infusion offunds construction of schools recruitment of teachers provision of textbooks teacher training programmesmid-daymeals and other actions constitute the building up of ldquoforcerdquo But the question still remains is this force working tomove education to higher qualitative levels After four years are outlays translating into outputs How should progressbe measured and with what tools

In response to these questions ASER (Annual Status of Education Report) has implemented an innovative exercise ofengaging citizens to better understand and evaluate educational outcomes since 2005 It is the largest survey ofchildren done in rural India by non-government organizations and citizenrsquos groups Using simple tools for reading andarithmetic applied across the country each childrsquos ability to read simple text and to perform basic arithmetic is assessedby a local district organization In 2008 with the help of over 25000 volunteers and 500 organizations ASER was carriedout in 568 out of 583 rural districts in India ndash comprising 16198 villages 335966 households and 704241 childrenThe purpose of ASER 2008 is two-fold (i) to get reliable estimates of the status of childrenrsquos schooling and basic learningabilities at the district level and (ii) to measure changes in basic learning skills and in school statistics from the previousyear allowing importantly for aggregation to the local district and state levels

Over the past four years ASER has demonstrated that it is possible to use simple reliable and scientific methods ofsampling and assessment and at very low cost to attain comparable information with deeper detail than some nationalsurveys (ie NCERT and Census 2001)

Source Pratham 2008

provisioning to sub-national authorities the need tostrengthen local government capacity was highlightedin many country assessments A number of theassessments also emphasized the need to strengthenlinks between local government civic groups andcommunity organizations to improve MDG progress

Cambodiarsquos efforts to strengthen democraticand decentralized local governance uses Commune

Councils as the entry point to implement threecomplementary interventions the creation of voiceand accountability mechanisms to improve dialogueand promote partnerships and accountability thecreation of a network of Commune Councils at theprovincial and national level to strengthen theirrole in the decentralization process and support fordeveloping and implementing inter-commune projects


Box 36 Building and Reinventing Decentralized Governance in Indonesia (BRIDGE)

As Indonesiarsquos decentralization process unfolds a greater focus on districts has meant less attention for the provincesthat play a crucial intermediary role between central and district-level governmentThe BRIDGE initiative aims toenhance the capacity of local government officials through implementing good governance principles It also aims toimprove public service through more interactive governance and to strengthen public monitoring of governmentthrough better access to information Its actions have focused on schools and community health centers

BRIDGE has five major components and seeks to

Empower people to make informed demands on government through effective representation mechanisms

Strengthen the responsiveness of provincial and local government in basic service delivery

Improve public control over government performance through effective access to information and monitoring

Strengthen the capacity of local institutions to adopt more effective and innovative service delivery methods

Promote policy dialogues to deepen effective decentralization reforms

To date BRIDGE has helped support

The development of 21 multi-stakeholder groups representing local government civil society organizations themedia and local Parliament

Better public service delivery at schools and health centers

Improved monitoring and evaluation to boost teacher performance and school financial management and thesame for participatory programmes at health centers (including establishing epidemiology surveillance mechanisms)

Participation needs to be backed by resourcesConferring greater local decision-making on the poorwithout giving them resources or the power to generate

resources is unlikely to make a dent in acceleratingprogress forMDG achievements

CAPACITY CONUNDRUMSWeaknesses in the implementation of programmescritical for securing MDG achievements areintimately linked with weak institutional capacitiesat national and local levels Currently according toits country assessment Malawi ldquofaces a shortage of36000 teachers in primary schools and the healthsector is critically undermanned especially forprimary health carerdquo The assessment forMozambique notes that the ldquolow capacity ofcivil service impacts the quality and efficiency ofprogram deliveryrdquo

Institutional bottlenecks a shortage of technicalknow-how limited management systems skillsdeficiencies and an absence of retention andplacement strategies to attract skilled labor to lessserviced areas were identified as important functionalcapacity constraints that slowed implementation ofkey national initiatives aimed at MDG achievementsCapacity-building efforts are acutely needed in all ofthese areas

Investing in the capacities of state institutions tobetter manage development processes and to includemultiple stakeholders requires that state institutionswork in an efficient effective and inclusive mannermore compatible with fostering human developmentand securing the MDGs This requires improvingcapacities for

Integrated development planning and implemen-tation against existing vertically-defined sectorstrategies and vertical delivery mechanisms

Building on national governance regimes thatdefine social justice empowerment and genderequality as key pillars by which to measure theireffectiveness and results and

Investing in institutions that support andsafeguard inclusive sustainable growth

Equally important as well is the need tostrengthen capacities of civil society and communityorganizations Community participation has oftencontributed to more appropriate and cost-effectivedesign lower costs for local labor timely purchase ofmaterials the elimination of commissions and theavoidance of cost overruns Community organizationshave also delivered goods and services where centraland local governments could not do so effectively

Box 37 BRAC and Universal PrimaryEducation Bangladesh

In recent years Bangladesh has made significantprogress in the education sector having achieved aprimary enrolment rate of more than 92 percent andgender parity at both primary and secondary levelsHowever high dropout rates particularly amonggirls and lack of universal access remain problemsAccess to education is an issue of particular concernfor children from extremely poor households wholive in remote areas or are of minority ethnicdescent or who have special needs

The goal of the BRAC Education Programme (BEP) isto make a significant contribution to the achieve-ment of education for all in Bangladesh It aims toimprove the quality and delivery of services ineducation appropriate to the needs of poor childrenwith particular emphasis on girls and to increasetheir access to services BRAC seeks to help fill theremaining gaps in coverage retention and in thequality of primary education

BRAC began its non-formal primary schoolprogramme in 1985 with 22 one-room schools Nowmore than 34000 schools operate under BEPTheseschools provide basic education to approximately11 percent of primary school-aged children inBangladeshThe programme provides learningopportunities to children not enrolled in govern-ment-run schools designs school curriculums andoffers relevant skills-training to students It hasorganized teacher training in mathematics andEnglishmanagement training for head teachers andorientation sessions for local school committeemembers Over the last three years BRAC has trainedover 934 mathematics teachers 926 English teachersand 993 head teachers

In 2002 BRAC opened its first international office inKabul and is currently running more than 90 schoolsfor adolescent girls in rural Afghanistan and hasrecently started to work in several countries in Africa


PARTNERSHIPSANDPOLITICSPartnerships have had an instrumental role inaccelerating progress towards MDG achievementssince the Goals were first adopted Given the scale ofchallenges the limitations of resources and capacityconstraints faced by many developing countries ndashespecially those that are least developed ndash the differ-ences that partnerships can make are significant Thiswas underscored time and again in the countryassessments especially in the context of the fightagainst HIV tuberculosis and malaria

The importance of partnerships in responding tothe spread of HIV was noted as being especiallyimportant for countries in Africa ndash particularly insuch areas as response coordination harm reduction

development and introduction of clinical protocols onAnti-Retroviral Therapy blood safety and for preven-tion and monitoring Malawi Ethiopia Tanzania andMozambique all pointed out that national improve-ments in HIV prevalence rates were in part attributa-ble to strong coordinated partnerships betweengovernment and development partners including civilsociety international donors and the Global Fund

In the end MDG breakthroughs and achieve-ments will only happen if a country and its peopletake ownership of the development agenda Politicalleadership and vision engaged and active electedrepresentatives a responsive bureaucracy and a vigilantcivil society all will need to be mobilized in order tosecure sound and enduring development gains

Box 38 Leadership for HIV in Botswana

In 2008 the former President of Botswana Festus Mogae received the Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in AfricanLeadershipwhich is awarded annually in recognition of good governance on the continent President Mogae receivedthe prize in large part for his efforts to curtail the spread of HIV in his country During his two terms as President hepublicly took an HIV test pressed to cut the prevalence of mother-to-child transmission and fought to make anti-retrovi-ral drugs more readily available He still chairs the National AIDS Council Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annanwholed the six member panel that chose President Mogae for the prize said that his ldquooutstanding leadership has ensuredBotswanarsquos continued stability and prosperity in the face of an HIV pandemicwhich threatened the future of his countryand his peoplerdquo President Mogae addressed the issue in almost every one of his speeches Since stepping down asPresident he has continued his work to prevent the spread of HIV throughldquoChampions for an HIV Free Generationrdquondashan initiative that involves other former African Presidents and prominent figures dedicated to eradicating the disease

Political leadership and vision engaged andactive elected representatives a responsive

bureaucracy and a vigilant civil society all willneed to be mobilized in order to secure sound

and enduring development gains


UNPhotoLogan

Abassi

The Impact of Violent Conflicton Human Development

The Economic Costs

The Challenges of MDG Achievementsin Post-Conflict Situations

Some Implications for Support ofMDGs in Post-Conflict Contexts

CHAPTER FOUR

FRAGILE SITUATIONS STURDYCOMMITMENTSTHE SPECIALCHALLENGES OF MDGACHIEVEMENT IN CONFLICT-AFFECTED COUNTRIES

The idea of actively seeking to reach specifiedsocial and environmental targets can be a powerful

mobilization vehicle for post-conflict recovery


The purpose of this chapter is to critically analyzethe special challenges that countries affected byconflict confront in their efforts to attain the MDGsSome have argued that the Goals are not reallyrelevant in crisis and post-conflict countries as theyhave more pressing problems While it is true thatthey face urgent challenges resolving them is notincompatible with pursuing the MDGs Indeed theidea of actively seeking to reach specified social andenvironmental targets can be a powerful mobilizationvehicle for post-conflict recovery At the same timehowever the special circumstances of war-affectedcountries require that the promotion of the MDGsdo no harm in terms of presenting additionalconflict riskThe legacy of conflict is devastating death

disease destruction population displacementeconomic dislocation human and capital flightmassive impoverishment and social breakdown Notonly does the diversion of resources from productionto destruction means the loss of economic output butit also leads to staggering losses from the damageinflicted on production facilities infrastructuresocietal networks and communal relations The severeconsequences of armed conflicts can erase years ofimportant development gains and push these countriesfurther off track from achieving the MDGs by 2015

To be sure not all conflict-affected countries aretotally devastated While some countries includingAfghanistan the Democratic Republic of the CongoLiberia Sierra Leone and Somalia have seen theirstates collapse as a result of conflict others such asCroatia Guatemala Nepal and Sri Lanka havesurvived with their political systems administrativecapacities and economies largely intact Even forthose countries that do suffer extensive economic andinstitutional destruction what remains is hardly evera tabula rasa Wars do not destroy social economic oreven political life altogether Typically the severedevelopmental damage that violent conflict inflicts onthe formal sector reshapes but does not eliminatepatterns of accumulation distribution and socialexchange Moreover the patterns of violent predationand criminal economic activity that thrive during theanarchy of war often continue to pose seriouschallenges to post-conflict recovery

Accordingly although post-conflict contexts mayprovide a window of opportunity for transformativeinstitutional and policy reforms these legacies willdetermine just how much of an opportunity actuallyexists If strategies for the attainment of the MDGsare to have a good chance of succeeding in theaftermath of conflict policy-makers and the interna-tional community must build on the institutionalremnants that remain and take into account the newdimensions of social dynamics that may have arisenduring conflict

THE IMPACT OFVIOLENT CONFLICT ONHUMAN DEVELOPMENT47

Human costs

Generally speaking armed conflict reduces acountryrsquos human capital in numbers and in skills Inmany recent conflicts civilians have been deliberatelytargeted by armed groups either to achieve certainstrategic or political objectives ndash such as the creationof an ethnically homogeneous territory ndash or to denysafe havens to rival combatants in other instancesthe aim may be simply to loot civilian homes andother assets Civilians have also fallen victim to theincreasingly indiscriminate use of weapons such aslandmines In Nepal for instance landmines killed415 people between 2004 and 2006 57 percent ofthem children (ICBL 2006) In Afghanistanlandmines and unexploded ordnance killed between150 and 300 people per month in 2000 half of themchildren (Economist 2002)

Health costs

Contemporary armed conflicts also often result inlarge numbers of indirect deaths due to faminedisease and lack of health services According to theHuman Security Centre war-exacerbated diseaseand malnutrition kill far more people than missilesbombs and bullets Famine results from a combina-tion of food shortage due to war and the drasticreconfiguration of entitlements as food prices rise andpeople lose their jobs or other sources of incomesEthiopia in the early 1980s is an example of such adeadly combination

60

47 This section draws heavily on Chapter 2 of the UNDP report Post-Conflict Economic Recovery Enabling Indigenous Ingenuity 2008

World Health Organization (WHO) dataindicates that armed conflicts substantially increasethe incidence of contagious diseases Evidencesuggests that the greater the wartime violence andthe poorer and more vulnerable the country thegreater the number of people who become seriouslyill or die from disease The spread of HIV tops thelist affecting both sexes and nearly all age groupsWidespread rape by HIV-positive soldiers duringwarfare is often a major cause for its rapid spread(Ghobarah et al 2003)

Epidemiological research in Uganda suggeststhat the initial spread of HIV was closely associatedwith the armed conflict that started in 1979 Thespread of the virus from southern to northern Ugandaappears to have followed the same path as Idi Aminrsquossoldiers (Collier 2003) However more recentresearch suggests that the link between civil conflicts

and HIV is complex and highly context specificIndeed in a few cases the spread of the virus mayeven have slowed as a result of armed conflict due torestrictions on population movements According toUNAIDS Sierra Leone for example was insulatedfrom the growing HIV epidemic in West Africabecause about 90 percent of its population remainedin the country as internally displaced persons (IDPs)

Degraded health systems and poor access toclean water which can continue for several years afterthe end of a conflict often play a significant role inthe worsening health status of a population In manycases healthcare ends up being provided informallyor by private sector improvisation with mixed resultsat best Maternal mortality rates in conflict-affectedregions tend to be extremely high often exceedingthe average for LDCs in part as a result of insuffi-cient skilled staff attendance at births (Figure 41)


BosniaandHerzegovina

Industrialized

countries

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

Guatem

ala

Timor-Leste

World

Developingcountries

PapuaNew

Guinea

Haiti

CongoDem

Repofthe

CocirctedIvoire

Nepal

LeastDeveloped

Countries

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Burundi

Congo

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Rwanda

Angola

Afghanistan

SierraLeone

Deathsper

100000liv

ebirths

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ofbirth

satten

ded

byskilled

staff

SourceData from UNICEF 2008 statistical tables

Figure 41Maternal mortality ratio and skilled attendance at birth in selected countries


Infant and child mortality rates also tend to risesignificantly during conflict These mortality indica-tors and the larger socio-economic conditions theyreflect may help explain why conflict-affected countriescontinue to face very low life expectancy rates severalyears after the end of armed violence ndash even by LDCstandards In some cases life expectancy at birth evendecreased as has been the case in Cocircte drsquoIvoire theDemocratic Republic of the Congo and the Republicof the Congo between 1990 and 2006 (Figure 42)

Population displacement

Forced migration separates people from their sourcesof livelihood cuts off their access to healthcare and

education and heightens their vulnerability toviolence and predation While wars in the mid-twentieth century were associated with high deathrates they did not typically generate very large flowsof displaced people In contrast contemporary armedconflicts usually result in large numbers of displacedpersons and refugees Increasingly displacement hasbeen more internal rather than across borders Accordingto the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR) the total number of refugees was about152 million globally at the end of 2008 The UNHCRfigure for lsquopersons of concernrsquo (ie refugees asylumseekers returnees IDPs and stateless persons) stoodat 42 million at the end of 2008 Figure 43 showsthe main sources of refugees at year-end in 2006

62

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Industrialized countriesBosnia and Herzegovina

GeorgiaGuatemala

WorldAzerbaijanTajikistan

Developing countriesNepal

Timor-LesteHaiti

Papua New GuineaLeast Developed Countries

Congo Dem Rep of theSub-Saharan Africa

BurundiCocircte dIvoire

RwandaGuinea-Bissau

CongoLiberia

AfghanistanSierra Leone

Angola


Figure 42 Life expectancy at birth in selected countries

1970 1990 2006

Years

Education and human capital

Conflict reduces the stock of educated and highlyskilled people due to injury death and migrationEntrepreneurs professionals and intellectuals ndashkey players in any development process ndash often leaveareas of conflict for better personal security andopportunities elsewhere Among combatantsthemselves de-skilling is frequent Over years offighting they lose some of their previously acquiredprofessional skills even as they may acquire differentones Conflict also affects the conditions of humancapital formation and replacement through reducededucation and training During Liberiarsquos 15-year civil

war at least 50 percent of all schools were destroyeddepriving 800000 children of education In Timor-Leste an estimated 95 percent of classrooms weredestroyed or severely damaged in the violent aftermathof the countryrsquos 1999 referendum on independence(Li 2007) In Kosovo Bosnia-Herzegovina andMozambique respectively 65 50 and 45 percent ofschools required reconstruction or repair after war

On the demand side enrolment rates typicallyfall due to low educational spending and increasedhousehold poverty during conflicts In some caseshowever enrolment rates do not drop significantly oreven rise as a result of community initiatives Inconflict-affected countries communities have often


0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

AfghanistanFormer Palestine

IraqBurmaSudan

ColombiaCongo-Kinshasa

SomaliaBurundiVietnam

EritreaAngola

ChinaLiberiaButan

MoroccoSri Lanka

NepalRwanda

ChadEthiopia

Central African RepublicPhilippines

Croatia

Number of refugees

SourceUS Committee for Refugees and Immigrants 2007Note All names of countries are as they appear in the original source and may therefore differ from official UN designations

Figure 43 Sources of refugeesDecember 2006

been able to use alternative approaches to provideschooling even in very difficult conditions As aresult primary school indicators tend to reboundfairly quickly after war to the levels of poor non-conflict countries Unfortunately the picture isdifferent at the secondary and tertiary levels whereenrolment rates usually collapse during conflict andare less able to rebound after war

Weakened institutions state capacityand social capital

Conflict seriously weakens a statersquos capacity togovern effectively This erosion of capacity in turncontributes to an increased risk of conflict recurring

due to the statersquos inability to provide essential publicservices The extent to which governing institutionsare degraded varies greatly from country to countryIn relatively localized conflicts in well-establishedstates such as Colombia Indonesia and Sri Lankathe governmentrsquos day-to-day functioning may behardly affected by conflict However at the otherextreme are countries where armed conflicts have ledto the collapse of the state such as in the DemocraticRepublic of the Congo and in Somalia In betweenthese extremes the state may survive conflict or anew governing structure may emerge but withoutfirm control over the entire country as in Afghanistan

A frequent outcome of war is a reconfiguration of

Box 41 Legal Empowerment of the Poor ndashLand Disputes in Post-Conflict Northern Uganda

Conflict in Northern Uganda forced many to flee their homes in search of safetyWith the fighting over a significantproportion of the population is left having to reclaim access to their land one of the main sources of subsistenceFurther complicating issues of land ownership and distribution is the discovery of natural resources bringing expecta-tions of high returns from landThe disputes that result and the often misguided and unaided pursuit of tenure securitycontinue to undercut opportunities for productive activities and place progress towards the MDGs in jeopardy

Security of land tenure is indispensible not only for productivity growth and economic development but also forsustainable and durable peace It is crucial therefore that peace-building in Northern Uganda also focuses on efforts toprevent and minimize the prevalence of land disputes while simultaneously maximizing equity justice and enforce-ment of land rights through legal meansMost land disputes in Northern Uganda can be broadly categorized as eitherbeing over inheritance demarcation or investment

Disputes over inheritance require predominantly legal solutions Standardizing and codifying customary jurisprudenceon inheritance rights is an important step forward but such actions would have to be disseminated among Ugandancommunities and reflected through acceptance and ownership by the clan leaders themselves

The majority of land disputes in Northern Uganda are over demarcation Despite the governmentrsquos titling efforts formaltitles remain the exception For many landowners registration is too expensive and complicated Furthermore formaltitle holders are allowed to litigate only at the magistratersquos court level This is a further disincentive for many landown-ers especially those who enjoy power and influence in the community often preferring de facto ownership over a dejure title Fear of future land tax on titled land is an additional deterrent to formally titling land

Resolving disputes over land investment must focus on communication strategies of both central and the local govern-ment authorities It also requires developing the capacity of both local government authorities and communitymembers to carry out objective analyses of all costs and benefits included in an investment proposal and raisingawareness of the true cost and benefits among community members Likewise it is also important to strengthen thecapacities of communities to negotiate an optimal investment agreement that takes into account the true value of theland provisions for fair compensation the use of local labour and social protection and corporate social responsibility

Source Rashid 2009


property ndash especially land ndash rights as violence canoften displace customary or legal titles as thedeterminant of ownership and use Farmers andagricultural labourers often lose their livelihoods dueto displacement or land grabs by warring factions Inthe Democratic Republic of the Congo for examplemuch land has been forcibly occupied claimed andexploited for minerals by the warring parties andtaken away from important crop and cattle produc-tion Not surprisingly therefore land tenure conflictsgenerate another obstacle to peace and to theresumption of development For example after thecivil war ended in Mozambique initial difficulties inresolving land tenure disputes complicated peaceefforts In Nicaragua the Contras rearmedthemselves during the peace process over misunder-standings about issues of land access And in ElSalvador the delay in implementing a land transferprogramme for ex-combatants ndash due to donor andgovernment reluctance to finance it ndash became a majorobstacle to peace-making

The absence or weakness of state capacity allowscorruption and criminal activities to flourish It istypically the case that post-conflict countries areextremely challenged in reviving a proper judicialsystem and in preventing political intrusion andcorruption The rehabilitation of institutions may beas urgent a priority as rebuilding physical infrastruc-ture The effective functioning of institutions iscritical for restoring confidence stability andpredictability without which efforts to reconstruct thefoundations of development are likely to be fraughtwith great obstacles

This situation is further complicated by the factthat conflict also undermines social cohesion andtrust as well as community-level networks ndash theessential mechanisms that make productive economicand social exchange possible As a result ethnicreligious and other social tensions often remainstrong after a war especially if dominant groups resistthe adoption of inclusive policies The persistence ofhorizontal inequalities is a major risk factor for boththe onset of conflict and its recurrence The absenceof trust also widens the scope for opportunistic andcriminal behaviour which in turn undermines thevalues of honesty hard work and human dignity

It is widely agreed that democracy and inclusivepolitics offer a remedy for repeated cycles of poverty

and conflict in the long term In the immediateaftermath of conflict the conditions for democratiza-tion may improve significantly However there isalways a risk that the reckless pursuit of democratiza-tion may re-ignite conflict in the period ofuncertainty that often accompanies a transitionThis is particularly the case where elections are heldbefore the capacities of the state civil society and thecommunities themselves are sufficiently developedto support electoral outcomes This underlines theimportance of sensitivity to local circumstances andof gradualism in pushing for democratic reformswhere conditions may not yet be ripe

Box 42 Conflict in Timor-Leste

In spite of significant progress in some areas as alate comer to the MDGsTimor-Leste is off track toachieve most of the Goals Governance and conflictissues present risks to sustaining MDG progress Itsdependence on a single resource ndash its petroleumreserves ndash may also pose additional governancerisksThe country has successfully established thenecessary infrastructure for running a democraticstate and conducted presidential and legislativeelections in 2007The establishment of thePetroleum Fund is also a sign of transparency andgood resource management However Timor-Lestefaces a continuing threat to its peace and stabilitydemonstrated by the 2006 civil and military strifewhich included a mutiny in the army and assassina-tion attempts at the President and Prime MinisterThe violence led to the displacement of a significantnumber of people and had adverse effects on theeconomy resulting in a GDP reduction of about 6

The country also suffers a severe capacity gap ineconomic and social managementwhich hasaffected ownership of policy design and implementa-tion For instance there are more than 60 expatriateadvisers in the Ministry of Finance aloneThe expatri-ate staff turnover has also been mentioned as oneissue affecting policy sustainabilityThere is little skillstransfer taking place For policies to be successful it isimperative to have high-level administrative capacitypolitical commitment and a nationally-ownedprocess that reflects the priorities of the country

SourceMDG Country Assessment



THE ECONOMIC COSTSConflict almost always affects the rate of a countryrsquoseconomic growth as a result of its negative impactson physical and human capital as well as by disrupt-ing markets and reducing trust But economicchanges can often go far beyond this when conflictstransform economies and bring about a switch toinformal and sometimes even illegal activities

Damage to physical capital and assets

The destruction of infrastructure is often one of themost visible aspects of the cost of armed conflict Thewarring parties often target ports telecommunicationand electricity infrastructure and other economicallyimportant physical facilities in order to gain a strategicadvantage Also contributing to the deterioration ofphysical capital is the lack of spending on mainte-nance by the government during conflict This isoften the result not only of continuing insecurity butalso of the overall decline in government revenues anincreasing share of which is diverted to militaryspending The loss of physical capital can be quitesubstantial As noted by the country assessment forMozambique during its civil war about 40 percent ofimmobile capital in the agriculture communicationsand administrative sectors was destroyed Some two-thirds of Timor-Lestersquos infrastructure was destroyedin the mayhem that followed the 1999 referendumon its independence from Indonesia The damage tophysical capital in turn imposes serious hardships oncivilian populations through the loss of safe drinkingwater sanitation and power systems

Large land areas are also frequently renderedinaccessible by landmines and other unexplodedordinance (UXO) In 2001 Cambodia had morelandmines and UXOs than any other country in theworld with 6422 villages ndash 46 percent of the total ndashcontaminated (Collier 2003) Clearly UXO not onlyposes substantial danger to life it also severelyhampers the prospects of post-conflict recovery ofagricultural production Not surprisingly Cambodiaidentified a 9th MDG to eliminate casualties fromland mines by 2015

Armed conflicts are also responsible for seriousdirect and indirect damage to the environmentEnvironmental damage is often particularly severein resource-rich countries For example the rapidgrowth of unregulated mining of valuable coltandeposits underlying arable land in the North andSouth Kivu regions of the Democratic Republicof the Congo has destabilized hillsides causinglandslides that have destroyed fields About halfof the land seized for unplanned artisanal mininghas become unsuitable for agriculture Extensiveillegal logging has also seriously compromisedwildlife habitats

The destruction of Liberiarsquos main hydropowerinfrastructure increased the use of charcoal and woodfuel as energy sources accelerating deforestationand atmospheric pollution Land degradation anddeforestation compromise prospects for food securitysustainable development and long-term peaceSudanrsquos long civil war has caused serious environ-mental damage with deforestation occurring now ata rate of more than 084 percent a year Indeed from1990 to 2005 the country lost 116 percent of its forestcover (UNEP 2007) Rates of deforestation are likely

66

Conflict almost always affects the rateof a countryrsquos economic growth as a result ofits negative impacts on physical and humancapital as well as by disrupting marketsand reducing trust

to worsen in the coming years because of the expectedreturn of massive numbers of refugees and of IDPs

Finally the poor often lose their homes andlivestock following forced migration or due todestruction or expropriation by combatants In Dilifor example anti-secessionist forces burned houses asit became clear their side was losing In Uganda asurvey of households who fled the civil war violencein the mid-1980s found that two-thirds of respon-dents had lost all their assets In Mozambique thenational cattle stock was reduced by almost 80 percentduring the course of the conflict (Collier 2003)

Decline in output

The economic consequences of armed conflict areoften dramatic as a result of capital destructionreduced investment and disrupted markets Figures44 and 45 show the impact conflict has had onGDP in selected post-conflict countries There aresignificant differences in the reduction in GDP percapita among conflict-affected countries but theeffect is typically largely negative The overall effectof a conflict on a countryrsquos GDP per capita is afunction of the average growth rate during conflict


-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua

El SalvadorUgandaBurundi

Sierra LeonePapua New Guinea

CongoTajikistan

Solomon IslandsDRCHaiti

RwandaGeorgia

Bosnia and HerzAzerbaijan

CroatiaGuinea-Bissau

Cocircte dIvoire

Average annual GDP per capita growth during conflict

Note Countries are ranked from top to bottom with the countries with the shortest conflicts on the top and the ones with the longest on the bottomThe conflict periods considered are those during which economic activity is expected to have been most affected on a continuous basis

SourcesWorld Bank 2007a and Heston Summers and Aten 2006

Figure 44GDP per capita growth in selected conflict-affected countries


and the duration of the conflict GDP per capitagrowth was strongly negative during conflicts inAfghanistan Azerbaijan Croatia Georgia Guinea-Bissau Liberia Nicaragua Rwanda Sierra LeoneSolomon Islands and Tajikistan In Angola ChadMozambique and Uganda the average annualdecline in GDP per capita of below two percent wasmore modestA few countries have experienced positive growth

during their periods of conflict with Bosnia andHerzegovina Guatemala and Papua New Guineashowing higher levels of GDP per capita at the end

of their conflicts Several factors may account for thesedifferences in growth trajectories These include thecharacteristics of the countryrsquos economy the reactionof the international community and the geographicalscope intensity and duration of the conflict

Structural changes in the economy

The difficulty many post-conflict countries face inachieving speedy post-conflict economic recovery ispartly due to their weak state of development beforethe onset of conflict But it also has much to do withthe kind of economic transformations that may have

68

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire

Overall change in GDP per capita during conflict



Figure 45 Change in GDP per capita in selected conflict-affected countries

taken place during the conflict War often leads toviolent re-allocation of resources and activities amongsectors and institutions as well as among householdsand social groups It also often results in the destruc-tion of much of the formal sector

Conflict tends to lead to a substantial rise ininformal activities that are outside the purview ofgovernment taxation and regulation Many of theseinformal activities arise as people struggle to survivein the face of the loss of livelihoods in the formalsector Illicit activities also tend to expand as conflictreduces the statersquos ability to regulate increasingopportunities for the production and trade of illegalcommodities smuggling and theft In Afghanistanfor instance almost all the economic activity wasinformal during the peak of its conflict and eventoday large swathes of the economy remain outsidethe formal sector Opium production has re-emergedas one of the largest economic sectors with close tofive percent of agricultural land devoted to poppy andmore than 3 million people involved in its cultivation(UNODC 2007)

The informal sector in most post-conflicteconomies is not only likely to be relatively largerthan in normal developing countries it is also likelyto be different in terms of how it works and whom itbenefits the most Wartime economic activity oftenhelps some to wage war and others to profit from itMost people of course engage in economic activityjust to survive One study describes these three roles asrespectively lsquocombatrsquo lsquoshadowrsquo and lsquocopingrsquo economiesMost war economies display all three featuresdepending on the scope and length of the conflict(Goodhand 2004)

Combat and shadow economies in particularmay complicate MDG-conducive economic recoveryin several ways They may limit the political windowof opportunity for making needed policy changesafter war Continuing combat and shadow economicactivities also impair the already poor capacity ofstates to mobilize tax and customs revenues Wherethose who profit from war are also its victors theyare able to use their accumulated wealth and powerto influence the terms of peace agreements Evenwhen they are not the lsquovictorsrsquo ex-combatants oftenbecome part of the transitional governments chargedwith overseeing peace building and socio-economicrecovery Their interests do not always include

transparent fiscal systems economic justice or thepromotion of general welfare In some cases thevolume of resources available to post-conflictgoverning elites can significantly exceed externalfunding thereby reducing donor leverage for reform

Lost employment and livelihoods

Armed conflicts can have a severely negative impacton employment through a variety of mechanismssuch as disrupted markets lower levels of publicexpenditure and a reduction in essential supplies andimported goods needed for productive activitiesWith the collapse of private and public investmenthigh and persistent unemployment is the existentialreality that war-torn populations and returningcombatants often face just when they need jobs themost The few jobs available after conflicts also tendto pay much less than did conflict-related work Jobseekersrsquo skills are often ill-suited to post-conflictrebuilding needs

Very high unemployment and underemploymentseem to persist long after the cessation of hostilitiesUnemployment was estimated at between 70 and80 percent in Bosnia and Herzegovina immediately


UNPhotoEvanSchneider


after the war By 2004 official data showedunemployment still hovering at around 40 percent(World Bank 1997) In Afghanistan in 2004unemployment was reported to be around 30 percentwith another 30 percent working part-time or in jobsfor which they were overqualifiedThe lack of job opportunities for young people is

especially significant since they constitute a largeproportion of the population of post-conflictcountries Young men returning from war and unableto find productive employment may end up engagingin illicit activities or taking up arms again domesti-cally or in a neighboring country Even those whomanage to find jobs can find their purchasing powereroded by high inflation

Capital flight

Due to macroeconomic uncertainty rising inflationdepreciating exchange rates and the widespreaddestruction and looting of private assets conflict-torncountries often experience extensive capital flightAlthough capital flight is difficult to gauge oneestimate suggests that the proportion of privatewealth held abroad by a typical conflict country risesfrom about nine percent before the conflict to about

20 percent just after the war ends (Collier 2003)More crucially capital flight often continues forseveral years after the end of conflict Ultimately lostcapital only returns with stability and when economicand political risks have fallen substantially Wherethe source of flight capital has been the looting ofnational resources by corrupt officials the legitimacyof those acquisitions may well be open to question

THE CHALLENGESOF MDG ACHIEVEMENTS INPOST-CONFLICT SITUATIONSMost of the problems faced by post-conflict countriesappear similar to those of many poor developingcountries that have avoided conflict However war-related destruction and distortions make the develop-ment challenge more onerous for post-conflictcountries The implementation environment in post-conflict countries is also more challenging than thatof other developing countries that have not had toendure the consequences of conflict Drawing on thepreceding section Box 41 summarizes how conflictmay impact each of the MDGs

70

Table 41The Challenges of MDGs in the Post-Conflict Context

Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Crisis slows economic growth and often reverses gains made against poverty and hunger Continuing absence of basicsecurity and corresponding low levels of confidence among economic agents undermines development policy implementa-tion Deep macroeconomic challenges often include large budget deficits high inflation and a high debt burden

The location and type of conflict affects MDG status and economic growth variably sometimes affecting whole countries andeconomies while other times affecting geographic pockets or particular social groups more directlyThus there may bepositive MDG progress at the national level despite on-going conflict in some areas

Though rarely the immediate cause of conflict poverty can be a factor in its escalation and continuation particularly whencoupled with severe horizontal inequality and it is statistically a robust indicator of conflict risk

Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education

Education is often interrupted during conflict Schools may be closed or destroyed There may be a shortage of qualifiedteachers due to persecution flight enlistment in armed groups or due to non-payment of salaries Children may be trappedat home due to fighting or lack of transportation or they may be forced to flee or are enlisted into armed groups Others mayabandon school to work or to scavenge for food Even when children remain in school during crisis their ability to learn isoften compromised by hunger

Community efforts during conflict often provide a basis for primary enrolment to rebound quickly once conflict ends But thisdepends on the speed at which communities can rebuild homes shelter and livelihoods so that children are not needed tosupport these activities


Policy priorities and trade-offs ndasha contemporary illustration

The country observations underline the fact thatdespite the devastation suffered by post-conflictcountries they are not lsquoblank slatesrsquo on which theinternational community can build brand new

economic and social systems Effective recovery andthe successful promotion of the MDGs requireacknowledgement of the dynamic legacies of civilconflict It is important to take stock of these legaciesin order to better identify those aspects that have thegreatest potential to contribute to economic recovery


Table 41The Challenges of MDGs in the post-conflict context (cont-d)

Goal 3 Promote gender equality and empower women

Women and children are disproportionately the victims of conflict They constitute the majority in camps for refugees andthe internally displaced Sexual violence is often used as a weapon of intimidation Women and girls are routinely recruitedcoerced or kidnapped to fight or to support armed groups Following crisis widowed women must provide for their families

But war may also empower women as they often move into leadership roles including running businesses overseeing farmsand commanding armed groups In general women often take up roles and professions previously dominated by menThesegains in gender equality however are often reversed following the resolution of the crisis But they can also be leveraged inthe implementation of MDG related activities

Goal 4 Reduce child mortality

Conflict leads to higher rates of death among children through illness disease lack of immunizationmalnutrition andviolence directed against children and womenThis implies a higher relative level of vulnerability for children in post-conflictcountries all else being equal

Goal 5 Improve maternal health

During conflict the health of expectant mothers can suffer and their access to healthcare and professional facilities may belimitedMothers suffer from hunger disease exposure dehydration trauma displacement or forced migration rape and otherforms of violence Health clinics and hospitals may be closed or destroyed and those open may lack essential medicinessupplies electricity water and staff Expectant mothers may not be able to get to clinics or even to give birth in cleanconditions with the assistance of a traditional mid-wife Likewise there are serious implications for maternal health in post-conflict countries as well

Goal 6 Combat HIV and AIDSmalaria and other diseases

Poor nutrition exhaustion stress unsanitary conditions forced migration and close confinement increase vulnerability toinfectious diseases including malaria and tuberculosisWith male combatants on the move and rape used as a weapon ofwar armed conflict can lead to the spread of HIV and other diseases Conflict disrupts access to basic tools of prevention suchas condomsThe pursuit of Goal 6 is likely to be additionally hampered by the war-induced breakdown of health systems

But in some cases and counter-intuitively perhaps conflict may also work to reduce the risk of HIV infection or slow its spreadby minimizing mobility and social interaction halting trade closing borders and isolating areas of the country for several years

Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability

Conflict destroys the environment Fighting decimates forests and agricultural land and poisons water sources People forcedto flee place further strain on the environment by cutting trees for shelter and fuel clearings forests for new farmland andpolluting their temporary habitats Crisis often drives rural inhabitants to urban areas that are unable to adequately absorbtheir large numbers thereby straining public services and increasing slum dwellings

During conflict extraction and harvesting of valuable natural resources are often conducted with little regard for environ-mental impact Neglect of oil pipelines and mines and their destruction by warring parties causes further damage to ecosys-tems and to environmental resources

After war the challenge is to repair this damage and to lsquounlearnrsquo the environmentally unfriendly practices that are rampantduring conflict

Goal 8 Develop a global partnership for development

Conflict disrupts trade and investment and often interrupts important development assistanceThe continuing costs of themilitary even after a ceasefire or peace agreement drain national budgets increase the size of debt and strain economiesScarcity of human capacity exists side by side with collapsed labour markets


and peace-building In addition post-conflictrecovery situations require substantial restraint on thepart of the lsquowinnersrsquo as they consolidate power afterthe conflict endsLowering the risk of war recurring is the greatest

challenge that a post-conflict country faces At thesame time the advancement of economic growth anddevelopment and the promotion of the MDGs mdashespecially ensuring that the poorest segments of thepopulation share in the benefits of development mdashare essential for reducing the future incidence of civilwar Sustainable peace and development also requires

a creative approach to consensus-building acrossreligious social and ethnic lines thatrsquos aimed at howbest to use a societyrsquos assets it is also important to doso in a way that encourages the participation ofdifferent groups and segments of society

The MDG challenge in post-conflict situationsmay be exemplified by the current situation in SriLanka That country has long been viewed as amodel developing country having made great stridesin attaining high levels of male and female literacyschool enrolment and health outcomes despite itslow level of per-capita income At the aggregate levelSri Lanka fares well on most of its MDG targetsHowever there are wide gaps in the reduction ofincome poverty among regions Tackling Sri Lankarsquosunderperformance on Goal 1 ndash eradicating extremepoverty and hunger ndash requires a strategic focus on thepoorest districts and provinces including the Northand Eastern provinces that have been most affectedby the prolonged conflict

With the end of the conflict in May 2009 themost immediate needs in Sri Lanka are humanitar-ian given that over 250000 internally displacedpersons are living in government-run campsaccording to estimates by the UN HighCommissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)48Withthese people in various conditions of trauma priorityattention must be given to improving both theirpsychological and physical welfare But followingclosely on these considerations are the larger develop-mental issues of returning people to their communi-ties and livelihoods creating new income-earningopportunities and restoring human and social capitalalong with the basic operational capacities needed forlocal and community-level governance

Furthermore the country must address the deep-seated issues that gave rise to the Liberation Tigers of

72

Effective recovery and the successful promotionof theMDGs require acknowledgementof the dynamic legacies of civil conflict

Box 43 Sierra Leonersquos Civil Society

The decade long civil war marked a period of civilsociety awakening in Sierra Leone Civil societyincluding citizensrsquo organizations existed in alldistricts of the country In terms of coordinationthese organizations were grouped into variouscoalitions and formal and informal networksorganized along programmatic and thematic linesThese included the Civil Society Movement (CSM)the National Forum for Human Rights (NFHR) theFreetown Human Rights Committee (FHRC) and theWomenrsquos Forum

These civil society networks and coalitions playedsignificant roles during the countryrsquos period of crisisand provided various kinds of services Importantlythey helped to create an alternative voice ingovernance advocating for fundamental rights andbasic needs related to the MDGs

Source Sierra Leone MDG Country Assessment

48 UNHCR data provided by the UNDP Sri Lanka Country Office

Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the first place as well as theprofound sense of disenfranchisement distrust andfrustration among Tamils in Sri Lanka Rebuildingtrust between minority and majority communities andbetween citizens and the government is paramountSri Lanka must find a way to reconfigure the politicalarchitecture to address the concerns of Tamils andother minorities and it must begin to heal thewounds that have grown deep over 30 years of warPromoting the MDGs in a conflict-sensitive mannercould work to reduce the risks of conflict recurrenceProgrammes aimed at rebuilding the physical andsocial infrastructure in the North and East could bedesigned to provide important additional livelihoodopportunities to the displaced and to those in need

UNDP has been supporting recovery work in theconflict-affected areas that could be leveraged forMDG implementation The Transition RecoveryProgramme49 already has clear links to the MDGsIts livelihood and alternative income-generationcomponents for example feed directly into MDG-1and target beneficiaries such as IDPs and returneesas well as host communities that are in particularneed of restoring essential services and basicinfrastructure In addition promoting gender equality

has been mainstreamed into all projects as a cross-cutting issue Thus through implementation ofvarious activities special attention is being paid to theneeds of women including to issues regarding theirrepresentation and empowerment

The programme also indirectly promotes otherMDGs Its housing and community infrastructureinterventions contribute to improving the overallhealth of families by providing protection from rainand floods and access to health services Housingalso provides space and privacy for children toconcentrate on their studies and their schoolattendance has improved simply through betterhealth and living conditions Income-generation andcommunity infrastructure for families has resultedin children spending less time helping out withhousehold and livelihood-related activities allowingmore time for school work

UNDP is also working closely with the SriLankan government to strengthen the servicedelivery system at the local level and is piloting acomprehensive capacity development approach in oneof the poorest but not conflict-affected provincesAn initial capacity assessment exercise was conductedin 200708 in that province With the end of the


UNPhotoOlivierSalgado

49 UNDP project in Sri Lanka supported by BCPR


countryrsquos conflict the government might now wish toconsider scaling up the exercise by extending its workto other regions It is important however thatcapacity-building for local service delivery beextended beyond the decentralized administrativestructure of government The locally-elected govern-ments units including Provincial Councils andPradeshiya Sabhas50 must be included in the develop-ment agenda Strengthening the capacity of thesenewly elected institutions to effectively deliverservices to the people of the conflict-affectedprovinces would contribute significantly to recoverypeace-building and of course the MDGs

Post-conflict development policy and programmesmust integrate into MDG implementation thereconstruction of physical facilities and the rebuildingof institutions They must address key conflict-riskfactors which include high unemployment levels andlack of employment opportunities severe horizontalinequalities and inefficient management of high-value natural resources All of these objectives areimportant for the well being of populations But theyare also important for avoiding the further undermin-ing of development and the return of hostilities Ofcourse the importance of each objective will varyaccording to the particular legacies of conflict In

74

Box 44 Challenges Successes and theWay Forward in Post-Conflict Nepal

Growth in Nepal has suffered from the countryrsquos conflict as well as other factors and declined to negative 04 percent in2002 Since 2003 GDP growth has hovered around 3 percent on average In the post-conflict era lower than anticipatedagriculture growth a further fall in the contribution of manufacturing to growth mdash due in part to long power outagesfrequent strikes and highway blockades mdash and low government expenditure have been major factors impacting onGDP growthYet even these latest figures are an improvement from earlier years of conflict

Nepalrsquos decade-long internal conflict was partly rooted in the exclusion of large numbers of Nepalese from politicaleconomic and social processesThe next five years are seen as critical as Nepal pursues peace-building and the recoveryof its development momentum at a time of global economic downturnThe process is compounded by the addedchallenge of healing damaged social relations

To meet the MDGs Nepal must accelerate domestic growth and share its results more broadly across the populationKey success criteria of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement include ending discrimination of all kinds restructuring thestate enhancing transparency and accountability protecting fundamental rights mdash including economic and socialrights mdash and providing access to basic servicesThe government has aimed to set policies to meet its developmentobjectives and to uplift all citizens of Nepal including groups that have been traditionally excluded But such policieswill not be sufficient to improve the well-being of disadvantaged groups unless they are well targeted and help to buildthe human and social capital of excluded groups

Clearly Nepal needs to accelerate economic growth to reduce poverty and to help avoid the recurrence of conflict Thecountry may have some vulnerability however arising from the current global crisis It is highly dependent onremittances which reached a high of 25 percent of GDP in 2007The global economic downturn could mean a sharpdecline in remittances which could fuel unrest and could also harm exports and tourism all of which would severelycompromise MDG-1

The strength behind development in Nepal is highly concentrated at the community level and Nepal has some remark-able local success stories including efforts by forestry user groups and womenrsquos groups community-based programmesin rural drinking water rural roadsmicro-hydropower generation local management of schools and a number of initia-tives by development partners Many of the truly community-owned efforts have shown great viability and even inconflict-affected areas Where a supportive framework has been created for communities to undertake such activitiesthere have been impressive development successes

Source Nepal MDG Country Assessment

50 Pradeshiya Sabhas are the village elected councilsThey are the lowest tier of the elected local governments after the Provincial Councils the Urbanand the Municipal Councils

addition and underlying all these policies restoringthe capacity of the state is critical in societies wherethis has been seriously undermined

SOME IMPLICATIONSFOR SUPPORT OF MDGS INPOST-CONFLICT CONTEXTSReduce horizontal inequalities Projects designed topromote MDGs should aim to reduce horizontalinequalities where these are severe by targetingbeneficiaries in relatively deprived areas At the sametime experience suggests that projects designed tofoster linkages across communities could havesubstantial conflict-reducing effects Whereverfeasible MDG projects should draw the participantsand beneficiaries from across potential conflict linesConversely where it is clear that policies to promotethe MDGs are likely to aggravate regional religiousor ethnic inequalities then compensatory investmentsshould be made in the disadvantaged areas even ifthese are relatively inefficient

Special efforts should also be made to ensure thatearly recovery mechanisms lay the groundwork forthe establishment of civil society structures and agender-sensitive state including eliminating gender-based violence Gender-based violence takes manydifferent forms and is experienced in a range of crisisand non-crisis settings It is deeply rooted instructural relationships of inequality between womenand men During conflict systematic gender-basedviolence is often perpetrated andor condoned byboth state and non-state actors It thrives onimpunity both in times of war and in times of peaceIt is clear that a commitment to expand the role ofwomen in leadership positions in every aspect ofprevention and resolution of conflicts includingpeace-keeping and peace-building efforts is essentialfor conflict prevention and recovery (UNDP 2008c)

Ensure conflict sensitivity in MDG program-ming Likewise it is particularly important forprogramme and project managers to be trained to beaware of the implications that MDG-related initia-tives may have on opposing factions or in politicizedcommunities They must be thoroughly sensitive tothe dynamics of conflicts in their areas and incorpo-rate these effects into the various project implemen-

tation reports Generally regular conflict impactanalysis should be expected from the managers ofprojects in conflict-affected areas

Adopt a disaggregated approach for MDGassessments Finally evaluation of progress towardsthe MDGs should adopt a disaggregated approachand pay particular attention to regional and sub-national levels where ethnic regional or religioustensions are serious MDG reports should beproduced first and foremost for national policy-makers rather than for international comparativeanalysis It is particularly important that these reportsanalyze the ways in which MDG policies andprogrammes address the concerns of the differentgroups and not simply how they are promoting thenational attainment of the Goals


Box 45Targeting DisadvantagedGroups in Colombia

In Colombia although the country as a whole isadvancing towards the achievement of the MDGsthere are large disparities at the sub-regional leveland among ethnic groups The indigenous peopleand the Afro-Colombians are typically at the bottomof the economic and social ladder Also unemploy-ment is hitting young people harder and especiallyyoung womenWhile urban parts of Colombia arethriving rural areas remain poor and are unlikely toachieve most of the MDGs

The challenges for MDG attainment in Colombiareflect the burden of more than four decades ofinternal armed conflict It is a major factor thatexplains the lack of presence of the government insome parts of the country the difficulties manycommunities face in accessing goods and servicesthe restrictions on the exercise of political rights andpublic participation as well as some shortcomingsof the justice system Along with drug-traffickingand illegal crops the internal conflict has created adire humanitarian situation causing the forcedinternal displacement of millions Although there arediscrepancies on the most accurate numbers it isestimated that more than 3 million Colombians haveexperienced forced internal displacement and live inextreme poverty conditions

Source Colombia Country Assessment

UNPhotoRogerLemoyne

Financing the MDGs

Aid Effectiveness

Measuring the MDG Financing Gap

Fiscal Space

What Role for Fiscal Policy

CHAPTER FIVE

THE FISCAL SPACE CHALLENGEAND FINANCING FORMDG ACHIEVEMENTS

Ramped up public investments issine qua non for MDG achievements

FINANCING THE MDGsFrom the very outset the issue of mobilizing financefor achievement of the MDGs was a central concernof the international development community IndeedGoal 8 ldquoDevelop a Global Partnership for Developmentrdquorecognized that development outcomes and MDGachievements would require enhanced internationalcooperation and partnerships including the scalingup of resources for investing in MDG outcomesespecially for the least developed and landlockedcountries and for the small island developing statesThe need to mobilize additional financial

resources to achieve MDG outcomes was notincidental It was often said that ramped up publicinvestments is sine qua non for MDG achievements

An incremental scaling up of public investmentwould not do mdash a quantum scaling up of investmentwas required Given that the trend in many develop-ing countries had been of declining public invest-ments since the 1980s this meant a reversal of thetrend was needed According to the evidence theregion most affected by declining public investmentwas Latin America in Brazil for instance publicinvestment as a share of GDP fell from 10 percentin 1980 to 22 percent in 2002 in Argentina andMexico it fell from 12 percent in the early 1980s to2 percent in 2000 Similar trends were observed inother regions as well (Figure 51) In Africa forexample public investment as a percent of GDPdecreased from 11 percent in 1980 to 75 percent in2006 (Cavallo amp Daude 2008)

3

6

9

12

15Middle EastLatin America amp the CaribbeanAsia amp the PacicAfrica

Figure 51 Public Investment by Developing Region1980-2006

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Year

PercentofGDP

Source Cavallo and Daude 2008

Further since the poorest countries were also theones most dependent on aid to finance developmentexpenditures (Table 51) this meant that the aidpractices of development partners would be animportant factor in determining MDG outcomes

AID EFFECTIVENESSThe Paris Declaration (2005) emphasized theimportance of the following principles to enhancethe effectiveness of aid

National Ownership and Aid AlignmentDeveloping countries should set their own strate-gies for poverty reduction and capacity-buildingand donor countries should align behind thesenational priorities Local systems rather thandonor or parallel systems should be usedwhenever possible The 2004 OECD-DACSurvey on Progress in Aid Harmonization andAlignment found that on average only about30 percent of projects are managed according tonational procedures which include auditingprocurement disbursement reporting andmonitoring amp evaluation systems (OECD-DAC 2005)

Aid Harmonization Donor countries shouldcoordinate and share information to avoidduplication of activities and simplify reportingformats and other procedures using sharedsystems where possible The OECD-DACSurvey noted that very few donors mdash less than10 percent mdash are undertaking joint missions andonly 38 percent of country diagnostic reviews arejointly completed Only about half of donorsregularly share country-level analytic work

Aid PredictabilityDonors should give multi-year aid commitments and timely disbursementsto facilitate predictability of aid resources whichis extremely important for countries which relyon aid for a large percentage of their develop-ment expenditures The 2004 OECD-DACSurvey found that 40 percent of donors do notprovide multi-annual aid commitments and 33percent do not make timely disbursements InCambodia and Mozambique only 20 percentand 33 percent of donors respectively maketimely aid disbursements


Table 51 Aid Dependency

Country Aid ( of centralgovernment expenditure)

LDCs

Bangladesh 22

Cambodia 85 (2006)

Ethiopia 81 (2002)

Lao PDR 90

Malawi NA

Mozambique NA

Nepal 34 (2005)

Senegal 59 (2001)

Sierra Leone 148 (2004)

Timor-Leste NA

Togo 28

Vanuatu 70 (1999)

Yemen 28 (1999)

Developing Countries ndash (Non-LDC)

Bahrain 2 (2004)

Botswana 5 (1996)

Colombia 1

El Salvador 22

Ghana 26

India 1

Indonesia 5 (2003)

Iraq NA

Jamaica 0

Mongolia 23

Morocco 5

Syria NA

Tanzania NA

Transition Countries

Albania 18 (2004)

Armenia 23

Kyrgyzstan 40

Tajikistan 85 (2004)

Average 375

SourceWDI Database 2007 or most recent figures available


Most of the assessments for countries highlydependent on development assistance highlighted thecritical role of ODA and aid effectiveness inpromoting MDG achievements Much emphasis wasplaced on the need to strengthen aid alignment andensure aid predictability mdash including multi-year aidcommitments and reliable disbursements Forexample Sierra Leonersquos assessment notes that ldquolackof clear aid coordination structures to date has led tonumerous challenges that constitute implementationbottlenecks aid unpredictability is also a concernA lack of clearly defined multi-year commitmentshas made it hard to plan effectively for the mediumterm Further by withholding committed amounts ofaid (and since much of the aid was to pass throughthe government budget) it caused fiscal distressresulting in a larger deficitrdquo Average annual aidinflows were equivalent to 30 percent of the countryrsquos

GDP (excluding IMF financing facilities) versus anaverage of 6 to 7 percent for low-income countries(OECD 2008)

ODA accounts for 30 percent of Malawirsquos totalgovernmentrsquos expenditure The country assessmentnoted however that ldquoAid alignment is a problemForty-five percent of ODA does not pass through thebudgeting process of the government leading to themisalignment of resourcesrdquo

The 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectivenessrepresents the most comprehensive effort to dateto improve aid coordination and alignment withnational priorities Slow progress has been made inmeeting the Paris targets for 2010 that were setin 2005 The Accra High Level Forum on AidEffectiveness which took place in 2008 providedan opportunity to accelerate efforts to improvethe predictability of aid and for reducing aidfragmentation and the high transaction costs inthe administration of aid resources

MEASURING THE MDGFINANCING GAPIn the initial years much of the emphasis when itcame to the issue of financing for the MDGs at thenational level was on estimating the financing gapbetween required investments needed for the MDGsto be achieved and available resources A variety ofmethods were used to calculate the MDG financingrequirements of specific countries51 These estimatedldquocostsrdquo for achieving the Goals also became the basisfor international advocacy efforts aimed at securingadditional development assistance in support of theMDGs for the poorest countries

However estimating the costs of implementingprogrammes needed for MDG achievements did notmean that finances for this purpose had been securedor that development assistance had increased byquantum leaps Although net disbursements of ODAin 2008 increased to $1198 billion or 03 percent ofdeveloped countriesrsquo combined national incomedevelopment assistance remained well below the

80

Box 51 Coordinating Aid in Ethiopia

Since 2000 Ethiopia has taken significant stepsto better integrate and coordinate developmentpartnerships behind a unified national programmeAll development assistance has been brought underthe umbrella of a single High Level Forum made upof government and donorswith separate sub-groupsfor managing aid in each of the major sectors ofhealth education and food security At the sametime a harmonized system of budget support hasbeen adopted and a series of country-wide SectorDevelopment Programmes developed A majoreffort has also been made to channel all aidresources in support of a single national povertyreduction programme

External aid remains an important source offinancing ODA increased from $105 billion in200506 to $15 billion in 200607These resourceswere allocated principally to infrastructure and forhuman resource development

Source Ethiopia MDG Country Assessment

51 See Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS) World Bank The Needs Assessment Method (Millennium Project) Concerns and controversiessurrounding the methods and techniques used to calculate sector investment requirements remain considerable and unresolved See Reddy 2005and Vandemoortele amp Roy 2006


Ownership Target for 2010

1 Partners have operational development strategiesNumber ofcountries with national development strategies (including PRSs) thathave clear strategic priorities linked to a medium-term expenditureframework and reflected in annual budgets

At least 75 of partner countries haveoperational development strategies

Alignment Targets for 2010

2 Reliable country systemsNumber of partner countries that haveprocurement and public financial management systems that eithera) adhere to broadly accepted good practices or b) have a reformprogramme in place to achieve these

a) Public financial management half of partnercountries move up at least one measure on thePFMCPIA scale of performance

b) Procurement One third of partner countriesmove up at least one measure on the four pointscale used to assess performance on this indicator

3 Aid flows are aligned on national priorities Percent of aidflows to the government sector that is reported on partnersrsquonational budgets

Halve the proportion of aid flows to thegovernment sector that is not reported ongovernmentrsquos budgets

4 Strengthen capacity by coordinated support Percent of donorcapacity development support provided through coordinatedprograms consistent with partnersrsquo national development strategies

50 of technical cooperation flows areimplemented through coordinated programmesconsistent with national development strategies

5 Use of country systems Percent of donors and of aid flows that usepartner country procurement systems andor public financialmanagement systems in partner countries which either a) adhere tobroadly accepted good practices or b) have a reform programme inplace to achieve these

a) 90-100 of donors using partner countriesrsquoprocurement and PFM systems

b) 13 to 23 reduction in the of aid to thepublic sector not using countriesrsquo procurementand PFM systems

6 Strengthen capacity by avoiding parallel implementationstructuresNumber of parallel project implementation units (PIUs)in the country

Reduce by two thirds the stock of parallel projectimplementation units (PIUs)

7 Aid is more predictable Percent of aid disbursements releasedaccording to agreed schedules in annual or multi-year frameworks

Halve the proportion of aid not disbursed withinthe fiscal year for which it was scheduled

8 Aid is untied Percent of bilateral aid that is untied Continued progress over time

Harmonization Targets for 2010

9 Use of common arrangements or procedures Percent of aidprovided as programme based approaches

66 of aid flows are provided in the context ofprogramme-based approaches

10 Encourage shared analysis Percent of field missions andorcountry analytic work including diagnostic reviews that are joint

40 of donor missions and 66 of countryanalytic works are joint

Managing for Results Target for 2010

11 Results-oriented frameworksNumber of countries with transpar-ent and monitorable performance assessment frameworks to assessprogress against a) the national development strategies andb) sector programmes

Reduce the proportion of countries withouttransparent and monitorable performanceframeworks by one third

Mutual Accountability Target for 2010

12 Mutual accountabilityNumber of partner countries thatundertake mutual assessments of progress in implementing agreedcommitments on aid effectiveness

All partner countries have mutual assessmentreviews in place

Table 52 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness ndash Indicators and targetsfor improving aid coordination and alignment with national priorities


target of 07 percent set by the DAC members(UN 2009a) Total ODA is also far from what wascommitted by the G8 countries in recent summits inGleneagles Heiligendam and Hokkaido mdash whichused as a basis a rough estimate of the amountneeded to finance the MDGs in low-incomecountries and in Sub Saharan Africa in particular Ifcommitments are to be fulfilled the annual flow ofDAC aid would have to increase by $35 billion to$40 billion by 2010 in real terms substantially morethan the progress recorded since 2000 (MDG GapTask Force Report 2008)Even as advocacy efforts at the global level

continue to champion the need for scaled-updevelopment assistance in support of MDGachievements the need to identify potential sourcesof public finance in support of the MDGs hasbroadened beyond the preoccupation with ODAIncreasingly in recent years the focus has shifted toan assessment of how fiscal space for scaling uppublic investments can be amplified

FISCAL SPACEThe term fiscal space has been variously defined(Heller 2005 Roy et al 2007) Yet its commonpurpose in the context of the MDGs has been toidentify the public financing options available togovernments in order to allow for a scaling up ofpublic expenditures for development outcomesInvestments in various sectors contributing to the

MDGs can and should potentially come from both

the public and private sectors In principle theseservices are not strictly public goods in the sense ofldquonon-excludabilityrdquo and ldquonon-rivalryrdquo in consumptionand therefore households can be asked to pay forservices equivalent to the benefits they receiveHowever these services in addition to the privatebenefits they confer on households also have signifi-cant social benefits and therefore optimal provision-ing would require significant public spendingMoreover a considerable volume of public spendingon these services is necessary to also achieve anequitable distribution of resources Appreciablereductions in poverty and hunger and improvementsin the capabilities of the poor and vulnerable will notbe achieved unless the government spends a largevolume of resources on social sectors agriculturerural development and infrastructure

The financing strategy for achieving the MDGsthus entails a comprehensive mapping of potentialsources of finance from both public and privatesources ndash however as mentioned above publicspending constitutes a predominant part of spendingon sectors impacting the MDGs The diagnostic toolfor mapping different instruments that allow for areal possibility of scaling up MDG expenditures isthe fiscal space diamond52 (Box 52) The four sidesof the diamond represent different mechanisms bywhich fiscal space can be enhanced These arethrough (a) enhancing domestic revenues from taxand non-tax sources (b) increasing ODA includinggrants concessional loans and debt relief (c) repriori-tizing expenditures including enhancing their alloca-

82

52 Report prepared for the Development Committee of theWorld Bank and IMFldquoFiscal policy for growth and development further analysis and lessonsfrom country case studiesrdquo 2007

Estimating the costs of implementing programmesneeded forMDG achievements did not meanthat finances for this purpose had been securedor that development assistance had increasedby quantum leaps

tive and technical efficiency and (d) financing publicexpenditures by borrowing from domestic andinternational sources

The diamond illustrates the scope of a govern-ment to (a) generate fiscal savings from improvedallocative and technical efficiency of existingspending and (b) to raise additional fiscal resourcesfrom new revenue measures additional aid or newborrowing To the degree that a country already raisesa significant amount in revenue has a high initialstock of debt or receives high aid inflows the scopeto raise additional revenue from any of these sourceswould be small On the other hand the lower theallocative and technical efficiency of the existing

budget and the larger the volume of such spendingthe greater would be the scope for efficiency gainsas a source of fiscal space The scope for additionalaid or borrowing can in principle be estimatedwith reference to donor commitments or debtsustainability analysis

Domestic RevenueMobilization

A government can enhance fiscal space through moreeffective tax and expenditure policies Taxes as asource of domestic revenue vary depending on thedevelopment context tax revenues reached 38 percentof GDP in high income countries 25 percent in the


Box 52The Fiscal Space Diamond

The fiscal space diamond has four lsquopillarsrsquo that collectively constitute the universe of avenues to secure fiscal spacewith the area of the diamond representing the aggregate fiscal space available in the countryThe diamond does notinclude seigniorage (ie issuing new currency) which is not commonly considered to be a desirable option due to itsinflationary effects Governments can create fiscal space through the following types of fiscal instruments

1) Domestic revenue mobilization through improved tax administration or tax policy reforms

2) Reprioritization and raising efficiency of expenditures

3) Official Development Assistance (ODA) through aid and debt relief

4) Deficit financing through domestic and external borrowing

Official Development Assistance ( of GDP)

Reprioritization amp Efficiencyof Expenditures ( of GDP)

Domestic Revenue Mobilization( of GDP)

Deficit Financing ( of GDP)SourceHeller 2005


middle income countries and 19 percent in low-income countries (Roy et al 2007) Further taxpolicies vary greatly from country to country andrequire detailed assessments at the country level sincethe level of development trade openness and otherstructural factors determine the tax base (ie the taxpotential a government can hope to collect)The structure of the tax system also plays a role

in determining the progressivity of tax and transferpolicies Progressive taxation can foster inclusivegrowth through redistributive income transfers andby more effective targeting to improve access of poorand vulnerable groups to public goods

Reprioritization and Expenditure Efficiency

Increasing expenditure efficiency is often suggestedas the main instrument for enhancing fiscal space(Bird and Zolt 2006 Tanzi 1998) Expenditureswitching and efficiency enhancing reforms cancreate fiscal space through a reallocation of resourcesfrom lower to higher priority sub-sectors andthrough productive efficiency gains Howeverthis should not mean that governments shouldsimplistically earmark some percentage of theirbudgets to basic social services since it is difficult tospecify ex ante the size of the potential gains fromexpenditure reallocation and the sectors where

efficiency can be improvedThe potential for additional fiscal space varies for

three related reasons (i) the scope for expenditureswitching is determined by the size of the publicsector (ii) productive inefficiency can be addressedthrough long-term capacity developmentprogrammes that limit low income countriesrsquo abilityto secure fiscal space through active expenditureswitching policy over the short-run and (iii) address-ing political economy constraints to reforms is criticalto improve distributive inefficiency that oftenrepresents a binding constraint to sustainabledevelopment (UNDP 2007)

Thus improvement in the effectiveness of publicexpenditure calls for reforms in both policies andinstitutions Policy reforms help to direct expendi-tures according to envisaged priorities Reforms ininstitutions help to smooth the process and help inthe implementation and monitoring of expenditureprogrammes Capacity strengthening of the publicexpenditure management system is clearly importantsince such reforms can enhance the scope for raisingfiscal space However ldquothe range of options that areavailable with regard to tax and expenditure policiesis necessarily restricted in the short to medium termA longer term horizon provides both a better way toconsider inter temporal trade-offs and offersincreased scope to shift expenditure and tax policiesin ways that might be significantly more growthpromotingrdquo (Roy 2009)

Official Development Assistance

ODA remains an important source of externalfinancing for public investment (Table 51) especiallyfor the least developed countries small islanddeveloping states and landlocked developingcountries and countries emerging from conflict

While they are an important source of develop-ment finance for low-income countries ODA flowsare also highly volatile Recent studies on aideffectiveness indicate that the developmental impactof spending by donors is weak Since aid flows forfinancing development will remain important overthe medium-term donors should commit aid overthe medium-term to reduce volatility and align aidwith the longer-term objectives of growth improvedequity and poverty reduction

84


Domestic and External Borrowing

According to the standard definition of fiscal spacean expansion of public expenditures is only desirablewhen it does not compromise short-term macro-economic stability This is also why borrowing isconsidered to be the least desired option for securingfinance in low-income countries (Heller 2005) Thecondition for borrowing is set by the debtGDP ratiosince it is a measure of fiscal solvency

Fiscal space assessments undertaken for countriesin the context of financing for MDGs (BhutanMongolia Senegal and Morocco) indicate that withreforms and capacity strengthening there is room toexpand fiscal space to increase public spending foraccelerated MDG achievements The fiscal space

assessment for Bhutan noted that ldquoimproving therevenue productivity of the tax system could generateadditional fiscal space by 4-5 of GDP Thishowever would require significant reforms on boththe structure and administration of the tax systemrdquo(Rao et al 2008)

The country-level fiscal space assessments alsoreinforce the idea that there is scope for enhancingfiscal space by undertaking efficiency enhancingreforms with respect to expenditure policy andthrough a reallocation of resources to priority sectorsFor instance a review of Bhutanrsquos expenditure policyindicated that accelerated progress could be madetowards the realization of poverty reductionobjectives if the government redirected someresources for spending in the social sectors ndash

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

TotalEconomic Services

Social ServicesGeneral Services

Figure 52 Expenditure Trends in Bhutan (functional categories)

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07


Year

PercentofGDP

Source Rao et al 2008


especially for current expenditure Trends in expendi-ture in Bhutan show that declines in the expenditureto GDP ratio were lowest in the case of generaladministrative services and highest in economicservices Expenditure on social services deceleratedsharply from 22 percent in the period 1995-2000 to12 percent in the period 2001-2006Within social services growth of both education

and health expenditures in Bhutan showed sharpdeclines which is a matter of concern As the studyfor Bhutan notes ldquoa reorientation of spending alloca-tion is necessary towards social sectors to achievepoverty reduction As the shortfall is more in currentexpenditures this should be prioritized since it isinstrumental in providing immediate returns in termsof improving education and health standardsrdquo (Raoet al 2008)

In sum the fiscal space assessments pointedout that

1) Mobilizing additional domestic revenues in theshort term would be limited since reformsneeded to yield additional domestic resourcesrequire longer-term capacity developmentmeasures

2) In the short to medium term much more couldbe done to enhance the expenditure efficiency ofpublic investments both through reprioritizationand by promoting greater transparency in thedisbursement of finances across sectors all theway to beneficiaries

3) Although development assistance would continueto be an important source of financing in theshort and medium term much more needs to bedone to improve aid effectiveness and to link

development assistance more directly in supportof MDG outcomes In the long run greaterreliance on domestic resources to financedevelopment would be key to sustaining MDGprogress and achievements

4) Fiscal space assessments also pointed to theimportant role of international financing institu-tions in negotiating conditions surroundingdeficit financing53 and debt relief as importantchannels for mobilizing additional finance

The assessments for Mozambique and Malawinoted that debt relief under the Heavily IndebtedPoor Countries (HIPC) initiative had expanded fiscalspace and thereby allowed for a scaling up of publicinvestments The MDG Report for Malawi notedthat ldquowith 84 of the countryrsquos external debt stockcancelled the countryrsquos annual debt service had beenreduced to $15 million freeing up $110 million forexpenditures in priority programmesrdquo (MalawiMDGR 2008) However despite the fiscal benefitsoffered by multilateral debt relief programmes manycountries remain vulnerable to reverting back to astate of high indebtedness ldquoWith a weak basis forrevenue generation lack of market access and othertrade barriers as well as periodic shocks debtsustainability remains a challengerdquo

Importantly and from the perspective of sustain-ing public investments needed for MDG achieve-ments over the longer term a more fundamentalrevision of criteria that determine debt sustainabilitylevels appears warranted Without investing in thelonger-term measures needed to create fiscal spaceaid dependent countries would remain susceptible tofalling back into debt traps

86

Without investing in the longer-termmeasures needed to create fiscal spaceaid dependent countries would remainsusceptible to falling back into debt traps

53 See Roy et al 2007

Similarly it was noted that conditions governingfiscal deficits also needed to be reconsidered sincefrom a longer-term perspective public investments inspecific sectors would yield high returns with respectto growth and poverty reduction outcomes54 Evidenceof the links between public spending and povertyreduction indicate that higher government spendingon education health water and sanitation housingagriculture RampD electricity and transport ampcommunications all have a negative and statisticallysignificant impact on poverty rates (Mosley et al2004 Fan et al 2004)

Several of the country assessments noted that inthe context of the current economic crisis govern-ments were concerned with the fiscal squeeze thatcould result and the implications for meeting MDGtargets Interestingly falling ODA appeared to be lessof a concern compared to falling domestic revenueson account of weak commodity prices depresseddemand and lower remittances and investmentinflows ldquoThe unfolding economic crisis will alsosubstantially reduce the amount of resourcespotentially available to Yemen to fund MDGinterventions as the national budget is 70 percentdependent on oil revenues and these revenues areexpected to halve over the coming two yearscompared to the average levels attained during2006-2008rdquo

WHAT ROLEFOR FISCAL POLICYFor the most part discussions on financing for theMDGs have been mainly concerned with the issue ofsecuring additional finance to enable the scaling up ofpublic investments Yet equally important is therequirement for directing ndash or allocating ndash publicinvestments in a manner that will best supportaccelerated progress towards MDG achievements

Despite the positive intentions and statements ofnational planning frameworks to focus on achievingpro-poor development outcomes fiscal policy inmany developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s

largely focused on supporting the imperatives ofmacro-economic stabilization rather than broad-based growth and poverty reduction (World Bank2007b) This was recently acknowledged by both theWorld Bank and IMF in a joint report which statedthat it ldquoconcurred with the view that in the 1980s and1990s fiscal policy focused largely on the goal ofstabilization and under-emphasized the growthobjectiverdquo (World Bank 2007b) Yet in the contextof mobilizing and directing financial resources for theMDGs the key question to ask is how the design offiscal policy can identify and incorporate publicspending taxation aid and borrowing so that it maystimulate long-term growth and poverty reduction

And it is this disconnect that will need to bestrengthened if national financing strategies are to betruly consistent with the objectives of sustainingMDG achievements over the long haul



54 There is ample evidence that when disaggregated by sector public expenditure (especially in infrastructure) has positive and statistically significanteffects on economic growth (Barro 1991 Easterly amp Rebello 1993 Aschauer 2000 Milbourne et al 2003) In general empirical studies for developingcountries find that capital expenditure as well as spending on educationhealth transport amp communication can be favourable to growth (Bose et al2005 Haque amp Kim 2003 Adam amp Bevan 2005) The extent to which these expenditures contribute to growth in any country depend on country-specific factors including the efficiency of resource use and the quality of governance

CHAPTER SIX

MOVING FORWARDACCELERATING MOMENTUMFOR MDG ACHIEVEMENTS

UNPhotoMarco

Dorm

ino

In an increasingly interdependent world no countryis immune from external shocks Sustaining MDG

achievements will require countries to adopt risk-copingand risk-management strategies to prevent setbacks

or to at least mitigate any negative effects


As noted in the Introduction the principal purposeof this Report is to assess where emphasis should beplaced over the next several years to support partnersrsquoachievement of the agreed Millennium DevelopmentGoals Based on 30 country MDG assessments andrelated empirical evidence this Report has assessedfactors that shape MDG progress in a countrydescribed the bottlenecks and constraints that haveslowed this progress and identified the policiesprogrammes and practices that have enabled rapidprogress and sustained MDG achievements over timein specific countriesChapter one considers the processes by which the

MDGs mdash which have now become part of the policydiscourse in many developing countries mdash informboth national poverty reduction strategies andnational development frameworks Civil societyorganizations have played a key role in this regarddemonstrating that achievement of the MDGs isfundamentally related to the achievement of greaterpolitical space and voice for those affected by povertyand exclusion By linking the relevant goals with thenational and local development agenda mdash and byenabling deeper dialogue and a participatory processfor citizensrsquo involvement and broader engagement mdashcivil society organizations have played a key role inmaking the MDGs relevant to the country contextImportantly national ownership of the MDG agendawill be key to ensure rapid progress towards theachievement of MDG results and their sustainability

Notwithstanding these national processesevidence on MDG achievements indicates anenormous variation among countries Progress ishighly uneven across countries even within the sameregion for the different targets Some countriesappear to have made steady progress towards manyMDG targets mdash such as income poverty primaryeducation and gender parity in education mdash whereasothers have actually reversed course on some targetseven while making progress on others Significantlymost countries appear to have made insufficientprogress towards achieving the sanitation andmaternal mortality targets

In sum it is widely agreed that despite signifi-cant advances at current trends most developingcountries are projected not to meet many of theirMDG targets On this point the UN the WorldBank and NGOs are in relative agreement

Recent global developments such as theeconomic and financial crisis and the soaring pricesof food and oil threaten to erode hard-fought gainsreminding us that in an increasingly interdependentworld no country is immune from external shocksand that sustaining MDG achievements will requirecountries to adopt risk-coping and risk-managementstrategies to prevent setbacks or to at least mitigateany negative effects

Chapter two takes as its point of departure theidea that the current economic crisis and volatility ofglobal markets has exacerbated existing developmentchallenges and has exposed the underlying vulnera-bilities of many developing countries These inherentvulnerabilities and a countryrsquos own domesticconditions however are more fundamental todetermining MDG outcomes than are externalshocks How a country articulates its developmentpriorities how it reflects these priorities in policiesand programmes and how it leverages its opportuni-ties in the global system are fundamental in chartingand shaping MDG progress at the national level

At the macro level evidence indicates that thereis much to be gained in terms of poverty reductionoutcomes by pursuing broad-based inclusive growthpolicies Countries with more ldquoegalitarian growthrdquoexperienced higher rates of economic growth andpoverty reduction on average compared to othercountries indicating that broadly spread growth mdashwhere the poor are included in the benefits andopportunities provided by the growth process mdash isa key factor in achieving accelerated developmentoutcomes This is most meaningfully done whengrowth raises the incomes of the poor ndash by absorbingthem into employment opportunities and raisingtheir real income Countries most disadvantaged inthe growth inequality and poverty nexus appeared tobe the LDCs reliant on agriculture

In the absence of broad-based growth it was notanomalous to see that growth could bypass the poorentirely Chronic poverty and persistent exclusioncould co-exist with high growth And poverty couldbe more pronounced in some regions and amongcertain vulnerable and excluded groups Addressingpoverty would require policies and programmestargeted towards disadvantaged groups and regionsThe Report highlights the different kinds ofprogrammes and policies that countries have adoptedto overcome inequities address exclusion andpromote broad-based shared growth

90

The Report argues that a focus on broad-basedgrowth is important not just from the perspective ofachieving the goal of income poverty reductionHigher growth often results in increased governmentrevenues which can enable greater spending onpublic services that are critical for MDG progressincluding education healthcare and public infrastruc-ture for potable water and sanitation Whileincreased spending may not automatically translateinto improved performance on MDG indicatorspublic resources can be used to accelerate MDGachievement if spent on effective and well-targetedprogrammes

The design of sector policies and selection ofappropriate programmes are also critical for shapingMDG progress For instance despite food securitybeing a key development objective of many countriesthe agricultural sector has been ignored for decadesand not surprisingly hunger prevalence remains achallenge in many countries across different regionsThe programmatic response of countries with respectto hunger mitigation has varied widely and includessuch initiatives as food for work programmesconditional cash transfer and school feeding schemesWhile a number of these have made notable contri-butions hunger prevalence still remains widespreadThe Report makes the point that programmeselection and its congruence and coherence withsector policy objectives play a significant role inshaping MDG progress

Finally chapter two emphasizes the point that inan increasingly interdependent world domesticpolicy space is itself subject to global forces and torules governing international trade and finance Forthis reason policy coherence especially with respect

to trade and finance is also required at the globallevel to support MDG outcomes at the national level

Chapter three underscores the critical role ofdemocratic governance for the achievement of MDGoutcomes By emphasizing the means by whichdevelopment goals are translated into outcomesdemocratic governance addresses the how ndash theprocesses institutions and systems that will helpyield collectively acceptable results The values andprinciples of democratic governance allow peopleparticularly the poor and marginalized to have a sayin how they are governed in how decisions are madeand implemented and in how diverging opinionsare meditated and conflicting interests reconciled inaccordance with the rule of law As such democraticgovernance is seen as essential for both creating anenabling environment for MDG progress and forimbuing national and local institutions with systemsprocesses and values that respect peoplersquos humanrights and fundamental freedoms an environmentwhere the poor can hold their leaders to accountand are protected from arbitrary action in their livesby government private institutions and other forcesand where governing institutions are responsiveand accountable

As indicated by the country assessmentsgovernance deficits are a critical factor in shapingMDG progress largely because many of the servicesneeded for MDG achievements are publiclyprovisioned such as education healthcare wateraccess and sanitation Governance deficits arealso closely linked to weaknesses in policy andprogramme implementation In many countriesnational capacity constraints further weaken theimplementation capacities of key institutionsAccelerated progress towards MDG achievements


Democratic governance is seen as central tounderpinning and anchoringMDG achievementsand for creating the enabling environment that

allows such achievements to be secured


will hence require bolstering the governance andimplementation capacities in countriesThe focus of chapter four is on the special

circumstances facing crisis and post-conflict countriesas they attempt to make progress on the MDGs It isargued that most of the problems faced by post-conflict countries appear similar to those of manypoor countries that have avoided conflict Howeverwar-related destruction and distortions make thedevelopment challenges more onerous for post-conflict countries Yet the idea of seeking to reachthe MDG targets can be a powerful mobilizationvehicle for post-conflict recovery in so far as theprocess of their achievement does no harm in termsof added conflict risk Three specific measures can becritical in accelerating progress towards the MDGs inpost-conflict settings reducing horizontal inequali-ties ensuring conflict sensitivity in MDG program-ming and adopting a disaggregated approach forMDG assessments

Chapter five makes the case that from the veryoutset that the issue of securing finance for MDGinvestments has been a top priority of the interna-tional development community Accelerated progresstowards MDG achievements will require a substan-

tial scaling up of public expenditures in mostdeveloping countries from current levels In theearly years much effort was expended on mobilizingadditional ODA in support of the MDGs especiallyfor aid dependant countries Increasingly the focus isnow expanding to include other dimensions of fiscalspace in an effort to mobilize additional resourcesfor the MDGs

The country assessments have pointed to theimportance of expanding fiscal space with specialfocus on mechanisms for enhancing domestic revenuemobilization Securing finance for scaling up publicinvestments however does not in itself guarantee thatMDG outcomes will be secured this also requiresprioritizing and allocating resources in ways that aremost conducive for realizing MDG achievementsAdditionally for aid dependant countries practicesgoverning aid effectiveness are also highly importantfor shaping MDG outcomes

To sum up the enormous diversity amongcountries with respect to their MDG performancereflects a set of unique conditions opportunities andconstraints Country by country progress towardsMDG achievements has been determined by threekey factors

92


Policy choices and coherence that govern how acountry participates in the global economy andwhether domestic policies contribute to broad-based inclusive growth both at the macroeco-nomic and sector level

Governance and multiple capacity deficits thatundermine the creation of an enabling environ-ment needed for securing MDG progress

Fiscal constraints mdash including both domesticand ODA mdash and development assistancepractices that limit the capacity to scale up publicinvestments needed to ensure MDG outcomes

All these factors are essential for shaping MDGoutcomes Policies without effective institutions toimplement them are meaningless Policies and institu-tions without trained professional staff and other keyresources are ineffective Even as these factors arecritical for shaping MDG results in individualcountries they are by themselves insufficient if thereis no political will or national ownership of the MDGagenda Indeed time and again it has been noted thatif there is one overriding lesson for the achievementof development results ndash and for their sustainability ndashit is the importance of national ownership


Evidence from 30 MDG country assessmentsclearly indicates that when there is political will andwide-ranging engagement with the national MDGagenda when policy choices align with the objectivesof achieving poverty reduction and developmentoutcomes when national processes and institutionsare imbued with the practices of democraticgovernance and are backed by adequate functionalcapacities and resources development progress andMDG outcomes are indeed possible to achieve

For the past nine years supporting countries toachieve the MDGs has been a key priority of UNDPThe UNDP Strategic Plan and Multi-Year FundingFrameworks (MYFF) that guide the organizationrsquosprogramming focus and resource outlays reflect thisclearly The MYFF states ldquothe strategic goals inMYFF 2004-07 have been influenced by theMillennium Declaration and the MillenniumDevelopment Goals which represent the overarching

basis for all UNDP activities over this periodrdquo Inthese initial years much of the programme focus forUNDP has centered on MDG advocacy monitoringand reporting Such support ldquohelps to informnational debates on the MDGs by promotingnational ownership of the MDGs establishingnational dialogues to tailor the MDGs to country-specific contexts and galvanize national effortsaround the MDGsrdquo (MYFF 2004-07)

Over the years however the focus of UNDPrsquossupport has undergone periodic transformationsreflecting a wider and deeper engagement with theMDGs During the 2005 World Summit a follow-up meeting to the 2000 UN Millennium Summitrepresentatives of 191 member states resolved toldquoadopt and implement comprehensive nationaldevelopment strategies to achieve the internationalagreed development goals and objectives includingthe Millennium Development Goalsrdquo For their partdeveloped countries affirmed their commitment toincrease development assistance to the agreed targetof 07 percent of GDP The summit and its outcomesalso marked an important shift mdash in that the MDGswere not merely aspirational Goals but alsooperational and time-bound targets that could be thefocus and objective of national planning effortsUNDP support widened to strengthen nationalcapacities to integrate and make operational theMDG targets in the context of country developmentstrategies and national plans

The UNDP Strategic Plan 2008-11 highlightsthe urgent need for additional efforts by the interna-tional community to make the achievement of theMDGs a reality by 2015 for all developing countriesand particularly for the least developed landlockeddeveloping countries and small island developingstates It emphasizes that development effectivenessrests on the principles of national ownership effectiveaid management and South-South cooperationFurther the Strategic Plan uses ldquoinclusive growthrdquo asits connecting theme to place particular attention onthose that have been left farthest behind in a worldof expanding affluence but exploding inequality

Less than six years to the target date of 2015 inthe context of a rapidly changing global environmentand newly emerging development challenges howbest can UNDP invest its resources to support countriesto make accelerated progress towards MDG achieve-ments and deliver on its own strategic objectives



Based on the evidence presented in precedingchapters UNDP assistance could be more strategicand focused Tactically the focus should be onassisting countries to unlock the constraints andbottlenecks that prevent them from acceleratingprogress towards MDG achievements

While it is clear that UNDP and even thebroader UN system cannot carry the full weight ofbreaking through these bottlenecks it is also truethat existing support can be much more effectiveMoving forward it is recommended that in order tobest support accelerated MDG achievements at thenational level UNDP should


In light of the fact that the MDGs are now part ofthe national planning frameworks in many develop-ing countries UNDP must stand firmly behind andin support of national processes and ownership of theMDG agenda MDG achievements will requireworking with politicians civil society partners civilservants other UN agencies and developmentpartners among others Through the appropriatebrokering of ideas and partnerships at the nationallevel UNDP can play a catalytic role in supportingMDG achievements As described in the Secretary-Generalrsquos Road Map for the Implementation of theMDGs a powerful but lesser known purpose of theMDGs is to mobilize ldquopeople powerrdquo in the fightagainst poverty and inequality And as we take stockof how much the MDGs have contributed toreducing poverty illiteracy and disease it is importantto recognize that the ability to galvanize millions ofpeople around the world to hold their governmentsaccountable on their MDG promises will be a criticaldeciding factor for sustaining MDG achievements


The evidence is clear Without effective and account-able institutions systems processes and political willeconomic gains are not automatically translated intodevelopment outcomes or registered as MDGachievements Democratic governance deficits ndashincluding absence of rule of law absence of legalempowerment frameworks for the poor politicalstability accountability and corruption ndash undermine

both national institutions and national implementa-tion capacities

In post-conflict and transition countries thesedeficits are even more acute Governance deficitshave been linked to poor service delivery due to alack of coordination and design flaws a lack offlexibility in the implementation and design ofprogrammes an inconsistent approach to the designof delivery mechanisms and weak monitoring andinsufficient outcome evaluations which if donecorrectly can contribute to more effective servicedelivery Governance is thus the link that translatesthe Goals into development outcomes Supportingand strengthening democratic governance practicesand building accountable and responsive institutionswill be key to sustain MDG achievements

Building on its considerable experience andextensive support for strengthening democraticgovernance processes and capacities at the countrylevel UNDP can play a critical role in identifyingand strengthening the governance deficits of nationalprogrammes that are most strongly linked withMDG outcomes In this context the sharing ofknowledge and experience instruments and lessonsof what has worked in the past can be important forfostering and promoting effective democraticgovernance in support of MDG achievements


A large body of evidence accounting for MDGachievements points to the importance of domesticpolicy choices in promoting accelerated achievementstowards MDG targets Broad-based and inclusivegrowth policies as well as programmes and policiesto redress growing inequalities will be critical notonly for making progress but also for sustainingMDG progress

This Report has pointed to the importance ofgrowth in the agricultural sector as essential forpromoting poverty reduction Agricultural growthdepends on investments in rural infrastructuremarkets finance and research amp extension butinvestments in these areas have been slow globallyDiscriminatory trade policies and declining ODA tothis sector have not helped and new challenges haveemerged mdash including depleted natural resourcesPolicies to combat hunger and food security must focus

94

on rural areas and communities and must includesupport for small-scale farmers increasing security ofland tenure promoting access to land for the landlesscreating rural institutions expanding financing optionsand removing prevailing legal and social biases againstwomen working in agriculture Layered safety netprogrammes can be important programmatic measuresfor addressing hunger and food security as well asother MDG-related challenges

Fundamentally the poor share the benefits ofgrowth when their incomes are increased throughquality employment opportunities There is a needfor policies that target employment creation amongthe most vulnerable groups including women youthand the rural poor Programmatic responses shouldgo beyond skills retraining income generation andlivelihood programmes and should emphasize jobcreation in both the public and private sectorsLarge-scale employment programmes can be effectivemechanisms and should be integrated as a part of anysustainable strategy for poverty reduction

Sector strategies and programmatic interventionsmdash including linkages between macroeconomic andsector strategies mdash also need to be sharply alignedwith and in support of MDG achievements At thenational level UNDP can play a key role inpromoting the learning and adaptation of practicesand of policy and programmatic interventions thathave been known to have demonstrable results Asnoted in this Report good practices typically requireseveral layers of interventions and a considerableamount of adaptation to local contexts before theyare seen as successful practices UNDP must supportnational counterparts to strengthen capacities toadopt adapt and scale up such practices

The need for policy coherence is not just adomestic matter As highlighted by this Reportglobal developments as evidenced by the recenteconomic and financial crisis volatility of commodity

prices and emerging challenges posed by climatechange all have implications for the ability of countriesto make and sustain MDG progress UNDP shouldadvocate that risk mitigation measures mdash especiallyin the areas of commodity risk management weatherinsurance and health insurance mdash be adopted atnational levels and that development partners aremobilized to build the needed capacities to ensurethat this is achieved Further UNDP should play amore pro-active role in the global policy arena tochampion for policy coherence and especially inthose areas critical for shaping MDG outcomes infood security global trade agreements and the globalfinancial architecture Agricultural trade barrierscommodity price volatility and restricted financingmechanisms all tilt the balance against makingneeded progress and sustaining MDG achievements


A serious challenge facing many developing countriesand especially the least developed countries is thefiscal constraint Funding limitations affect the abilityof countries to scale up public expenditures requiredfor investing in MDG outcomes For aid dependantcountries both higher levels of ODA in the mediumterm and enhanced aid effectiveness are necessaryconditions for accelerating MDG progress SustainingMDG achievements however will require a greaterreliance on domestic resources to finance develop-ment over the longer term At the global levelUNDP should continue to advocate for enhancedODA in support of the MDGs as reflected throughthe Gleneagles Scenarios that have been prepared forseveral countries Simultaneously UNDP shouldstrengthen national capacities to mobilize additionaldomestic revenues and play a more instrumental rolein advocating for aid effectiveness in support ofnational MDG agendas


SustainingMDG achievements will requirea greater reliance on domestic resources tofinance development over the longer term

COUNTRY PROFILES

Albania

Armenia

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador

Ethiopia

Ghana

India

Indonesia

Iraq

Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan

Lao PeoplersquosDemocratic Republic

Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo

Vanuatu

Yemen


ALBANIA

Albania has made significant progresssince it began its transition into amarket-based economy in 1991introducing structural and economicreforms and establishing democraticinstitutions Strong economic growth of5 to 6 percent per year along with highworkersrsquo remittances have helpedreduce poverty from 254 percent in2002 to 185 percent in 2005 ndasheffectively lowering the countryrsquospoverty rate by more than a quarter injust a few years

The MDG agenda is at the center ofthe national development process inAlbania Along with reductions inoverall poverty the government hasworked to improve conditions for themost vulnerable and has succeeded inlowering the extreme poverty rate from47 in 2002 to 35 percent in 2005thereby putting the national target ofzero percent by 2015 within reach Buthigh unemployment levels remain achallenge as does reducing povertyoutside Albaniarsquos urban areas as one infour people in rural and mountainousregions live in poverty

Albania has made improvements innet primary school enrolment but lostground in primary completion rateindicators between 2006 and 2007

In the area of gender the govern-ment has enacted the Gender EqualityLaw and adopted the National Strategyfor Gender Equality and DomesticViolence However while progress hasbeen made in womenrsquos employment innon-agricultural sectors inequalitiesremain significant between womenand men poverty reduction has beenslower for women employmentopportunities are uneven and thenumber of women in Parliament in2007 has been unchanged since the2005 elections and remain far fromthe target

Infant mortality has been decreas-ing and if the current pace can bemaintained the target will be reachedby 2010The under-five and maternalmortality targets look also to be metaided by the fact that all births areattended by skilled personnel Despitethis there are serious disparities inhealth status among marginalizedpopulations

Albania is fortunate to have a lownumber of people affected by HIV butthe number of people taking voluntarytesting is also low and presents achallengeTuberculosis indicators alsoshow a decline in the number of casesin recent years

The countryrsquos protected land areahas increased and in 2007 represented114 percent of Albanian territory Butdespite the improvement it was stillbelow the national target of 136percent And while progress has beenmade in increasing the provision ofsafe drinking water and sanitationwith 784 percent of the populationhaving access to potable water and762 percent benefiting from improvedsanitation ndash drinking water safety andsupply shortages as well as thepollution of lakes due to untreatedsewage disposal remain importantconcerns

Constraints and RisksThe government remains challengedin the delivery of basic serviceswhich are impeded by weak capacitiesinadequate quality and insufficientresources of public institutionsOngoinghealth and education challengespersist and internal migration into thelarger urban centers has resulted indeteriorating access to essentialservices including birth registrationschool enrolment immunization andother child health services

Albania needs to ensure that asingle national standard for MDG datacollection is developed and appliedefficiently across all regions and sectorsThe system for monitoring genderequality for example is in place butlimited resources restrict effectivemonitoring and data collection onsafe drinking water and sanitationremains weak in rural and suburbancommunities

The government is looking to adoptan even more challenging set of MDGtargets called MDG plus ndash that aremore ambitious realistic and closelyaligned with the EU accession processThere is a need to link the MDG indica-tors with the more complex monitoringsystem used in the EU countries

LocalizingMDGsEven in small countries like Albaniadifferent regions can present their owndevelopment challengesThe Kukesregion the poorest in Albania offers agood example of this and of a nationalresponseThe programs designed toimplement the Kukes MDG RegionalDevelopment Strategy have worked toimprove living conditions and opportu-nities for vulnerable groups Priorityefforts have focused on rehabilitatingand constructing rural roads electricityinfrastructure water supply and sanita-tion and sewerage systems Communityhealth centers and education facilitiesare also being built and upgraded asare local markets for small tradeTheeffort has also increased womenrsquosparticipation in community-basedorganizations local decision-makingprocesses and in public debates


ARMENIA

After a period of significant decline inthe 1990s Armenia benefited fromaccelerated growth that averaged10 percent from 2001 to 2008Although poverty levels dropped byalmost half since 1999 and a quarter ofthe population lived below the povertyline in 2007 the risk now is of povertyindicators deteriorating due to theeffects of the current economic crisisand revenue shortfalls The governmentis trying to assist hard hit groupsand provide social support throughsuch national efforts as the FamilyBenefits System

Armeniarsquos draft second MDG reportshows that the country will likely notmeet the goals related to universalbasic education and child malnutritionand others including under fivemortality improving maternal healthenvironmental sustainability andMDG 8 also present great challengesand will require special attentionfrom the government and develop-ment partners55

In the area of health some recentstatistics are particularly worrisomeinfant mortality rates are three timeshigher among the poorest Armenianscompared to the wealthiest and neo-natal mortality accounted for morethan 75 percent of infant deaths in2006 up from 60 percent in 2000Health service utilization is consideredlow compared to the CIS average andaccess by vulnerable populationsinadequateThe availability of familyplanning is limited and incentives arelacking to attract health workers toremote rural areas

The CIS region also has the fastestgrowth of the HIV epidemic within thelsquomost-at-riskrsquo populations according toWHOUNAIDS classificationWith theincrease of migration flows from otherCIS countries the HIV situation inArmenia risks becoming furtheraggravatedMeasures to improve HIVawareness among youth in particularare needed to help prevent furtherspread of the virus

While Armenia has been challengedin meeting some national MDG 2targets it is thought that the goal couldbe achievable with increased spendingon education which was 26 percentof GDP in 2007 but it is unlikely toreach the national target of 45 percentof GDP spending needed for educationby 2015 Regional inequalities in accessto education and in education qualityalso present a major concern withshortfalls identified in the quality ofsecondary education

In the area of the environmentArmenia faces the challenges of overexploitation of pasture lands andgrowing pollution due to urbanizationand the provision of improved sourcesof safe drinking water and sanitationtreatment in the countryrsquos rural areashas also been slow Recent changes inenvironmental legislation are aiming tohelp address some key issues includingwater resources management naturalresource conservation and climatechange adaptation

In the area of gender progress inexpanding opportunities for women islaggingThe government however istaking steps to make improvements Itadopted the National Action Plan onImproving the Status of Women 2004-2010 and has approached UNDP forsupport in drafting aGender Equality Law

Constraints and RisksCurrent indications are that the globalfinancial crisis could slow the pace ofeconomic growth in Armenia in 2009by up to 8 percent Armenia couldexperience a drop in importantremittance flows and declines inexports and particularly of miningproducts A revenue shortfall couldthreaten to reduce much needed socialexpenditures and roll back hard foughtprogress including by someestimates 3 to 5 years of gains inpoverty reduction

Vulnerable groups including thepoor disabled and refugees are beinghard hit by gaps in economic andhuman development Exclusiondifficulties in accessing health andeducation services along with socialstigmas and discrimination continue topresent MDG obstacles

Climate change is also predicted toconstrain economic developmentArmeniarsquos rivers and lakes are criticallyimportant for irrigation and hydro-electric power A 25 percent reductionin river flow is expected to result in a 15to 34 percent reduction in the produc-tivity of irrigated croplandwith lossesin the agricultural sector estimatedfrom $180 million to $405 millionequivalent to 2 to 5 percent of GDP

Armenia is undergoing a difficulttransition from the former SovietRepublic and is striving to developeffective national institutions neededto thrive in the globalised economyThe government remains committed tocontinuing a decentralization processand to strengthening self-governancebodies as a dimension of its publicadministration reforms Howevercurrent trends indicate it will be unableto meet MDG 8 targets related to suchareas as government effectivenessfreedom of the press and rule of law

55 Armeniarsquos latest published MDG Report (2005) shows that MDG 1 2 6 and 7 are on trackMDG 3 and 4 are off track and MDG 5 is possible toachieve if changes are made


BAHRAIN

The Kingdom of Bahrain is a highincome high human developmentindex country with an open anddiversified economy largely influencedby the oil-dominated regionaleconomy As with other countries inthe region Bahrainrsquos interest in theMDGs initially involved preparingMDG reports and monitoring globaltargets to show national achievementsBahrain is now in the process oftailoring the MDGs putting moreemphasis on the national contextand priorities and using the MDGs asa tool for policy formulation planningand prioritization

Recent reporting has indeed shownthat Bahrain has met or is on track tomeeting the targets related to extremepoverty education and healthThegovernment has implemented anumber of policies to advance MDG 1including a national strategy to assistneedy families and increase the level ofsocial assistance per individual and perfamily It is also supporting the work ofNGOs through the National SocialAction Fund

Free education is provided to allenabling Bahrain to achieve a literacyrate of nearly 100 percent Enrolment insecondary school reached 832 percentin 200506 with increasing participa-tion of girls in school

Bahrain has also made progress inimproving gender equality positivelyaffecting the entrance of women intothe labor market and for taking upleadership positions in political andcivic forums including in the cabinetand diplomatic corps However signifi-cant social and cultural barriers persistin the political economic and institu-tional advancement of women andtheir employment levels lag behindthat of men

In the health sector a decrease inunder-five mortality from 114 per 1000live births in 2000 to 101 in 2005results from a remarkable progress inservices including immunizationprogrammes and regular medicalcheck-ups for young childrenThegovernment has had success ineliminating malariameasles smallpoxand hepatitis and in reducing deathsfrom tuberculosis by more than two-thirds between 1996 and 2006Thethreat of HIV while perceived asminimal is still present

Constraints and RisksBut in spite of Bahrainrsquos overall progressimportant challenges remain In thearea of the environment the countryrsquospopulation density is among thehighest in the world and with limitedsurface area and rapid populationgrowth it presents an obstacle forBahrain Achievement of MDG 7 targetsare not on track

Data collection and monitoringhave been uneven presentingchallenges in gauging MDG progressWhile data is available for the majorityof the goals for some it is not as is thecase in some environment areasBahrain is currently enhancing itsnational monitoring system to bettergauge all indicators that are included inits Vision 2030 plan which outlines thefuture path for the development ofBahrains economy and society

High on the minds of governmentofficials is the threat of climate changeas a sea level rise of one meter isexpected within 100 years Bahrain anisland state has the majority of its landsitting within five meters above sealevel A one meter rise in sea level couldsubmerge up to 40 percent of Bahrainrsquosland area and even an incremental risewould threaten important coastalhabitats and infrastructureThe govern-ment is working to implement policiesto mitigate the adverse consequencesof climate change aimed at increasingland protection and reclamation effortsin vulnerable areas

A number of constraints have beenidentified that have affected thegovernmentrsquos progress including thelack of effective planning and coordina-tion weak institutional capacities andcoherent and sustainable political will

One of Bahrainrsquos successes has beenits employment policy enacted in 2006which has had a visible impact inreducing the unemployment rate toless than 4 percent of registeredemploymentThe countryrsquos unemploy-ment benefit system and job bankwere put in place ahead of the financialcrisis and has ensured that the countrywas well-preparedThe ILO took note ofBahrainrsquos effort in this area and in arecent policy paper noted that Bahrainis the only country in the Middle Eastwhich offers unemployment insurancebenefitsldquoThe unemployment insurancescheme provides income support tothe unemployed including first-timejobseekers and facilitates their reinte-gration into productive employmentand as such provides an essentialsafeguard against the repercussions ofeconomic shocksrdquo the ILO wrote ldquoTheBahraini experience has provided anoteworthy model for the region andthere are already some indications thatother countries are consideringfollowing this examplerdquo


BANGLADESH

Bangladesh has made notable gainstowards achieving the MDGs and is ontrack for early attainment of some ofthe goals However progress remainsmixed and more effort by the govern-ment and its development partners isneededThe country has been success-ful in achieving gender parity inprimary and secondary education andin reducing child mortality but lagsbehind in adult literacy reducingmaternal mortality access to safedrinking water and in primary schoolcompletion rates

Overall poverty rates in Bangladeshhave been droppingwith the numberof Bangladeshis living in povertydecreasing from 588 percent in 1991-92 to 383 percent in 2007 But theglobal financial crisis and its possibleeffect on remittances could presentdifficulties for the government andchallenges persist regarding regionaldisparitiesThe poverty rate in Dhakafor example was 32 percent comparedto more than 50 percent in Barisal andRajshahiThe incidence of extremepoverty is also higher among female-headed households

In the education sector primaryschool enrolment increased from 605percent in 1990 to 91 percent in 2007 ndashreflecting also a significant improve-ment in enrolment of girls which rosefrom 508 percent to 947 percentMuch of the gains in female enrolmentcan be attributed to the PrimaryEducation Development Programmewhich has helped to increase schoolparticipation and accessThese achieve-ments have put Bangladesh on trackfor meeting targets under MDG 2however the government has little roomfor complacency due to challenges inadult literacy primary school comple-tion rates school infrastructure andhuman resource needs

One notable education effort the

Food for Education Programmewasintroduced in 1993 to compensatepoor parents for the opportunity costof sending their children to school Itprovided food rations to 20 percent ofpoor primary school children intargeted rural areas helping to increaseschool enrolment and attendance andprevent child labor About 22 milliondisadvantaged students benefited fromthe initiative in 2002 it was replacedby the Cash for Education GrantSystemwhich provides stipends toabout 55 million school childrenfrom poor households

While improvements in genderparity in school enrolment are notedgender challenges persist inBangladesh including the need formore women in higher levels ofeducation and in Parliament endingviolence against women and increasingnon-agricultural wage opportunities

One of the main challenges facingBangladeshrsquos health sector is the highneonatal mortality rate resulting from alack of skilled delivery attendants Anddespite interventions under theNational Nutrition Project low birthweight and malnutrition persist and areimportant causes of infant and under-five mortality

In the area of maternal health thegovernment is working to expand theuse of modern healthcare across allsegments of the populationWhile ithas made some progress in reducingmaternal mortality from 574 per100000 live births in 1991 to 320 in2001 challenges remain asestimates show that about 85 percentof childbirths still take place at home

In the fight against HIVAIDSlimitations in data on prevalence rateshas been an obstacle to trackingprogress while social stigma andcultural barriers contribute to relativelylow participation in HIV preventionprogrammes regional and genderdisparities in awareness about thedisease also presents an obstacle forhealthcare administrators

In the environment sector improve-ments in safe drinking water andsanitation coverage have contributedto a drop in the mortality rate fromdiarrheal disease but water-relatedailments continue to account for alarge percentage of deaths inBangladesh

Bangladeshrsquos forest area of113 percent is much less than thetarget set by the government and at002 hectares of forest land per personthe country has one of the lowestforest-man ratios in the worldThegovernment has safeguarded 19Protected Areas which representabout 2 percent of the countryrsquos landmass and has moved to protect eightother ecologically critical areas

Constraints and RisksBangladeshrsquos economy depends heavilyon worker remittances which could bethreatened by the current globalfinancial crisis Returnees forced backhome and in need of work could add tothe unemployment rate and increasethe challenge of employment genera-tion in Bangladesh In addition four-fifths of Bangladeshrsquos exports go todeveloped country markets fallingdemand resulting from the globalslowdown could impact nationalrevenues employment levels in export-oriented sectors and spending onsocial programmes

Bangladesh already vulnerable toclimate related natural disasters looksat changing weather patterns withgreat concern a sea level rise of018 to 079 meters would lead tosalinity intrusion and coastal floodingwhile shifting climate patterns wouldincrease the frequency and intensityof natural disasters especially invulnerable northern and westernparts of the country


BOTSWANA

Botswana is widely regarded as adevelopment successhaving transformedfrom one of the worldrsquos poorest countriessince its independence in 1966 toachieving upper middle-income statuswith a well-developed physical andeconomic infrastructure and wideaccess to public services In 2008Botswana was identified as one of13 countries and the only one insub-Saharan Africa to have sustainedhigh economic growth over decadesaveraging 97 percent since the 1960sIn 1994 Botswana became the firstcountry to graduate from LeastDeveloped Country status

Botswana owes its developmentsuccess to its rich mineral depositscoupled with effective institutionsand governance practices Economicgrowth and political stability have beenaccompanied by expansion in accessto basic services and have helped thecountryrsquos efforts towards the MDGswhere it is on track to meet most ofthe goals

The government was planning itsown socio-economic targets beforethe Millennium Declaration in 2000Botswanarsquos 2004 MDG report notes thatthe eight MDGs are ldquomatchedrdquowith theseven pillars of the countryrsquos Vision2016 that was adopted in 1997

Given the progress Botswana hadalready made in halving poverty thegovernment set a more ambitious goalof reducing the poverty rate to zero by2016 From 199394 to 200203 povertydropped by more than a third from47 to 30 percent But achieving fullpoverty eradication will depend ona number of factors including theefficiency of growth in reducing povertyand high levels of unemployment

Botswanarsquos unemployment ratewas 18 percent in 200506 withjoblessness particularly high amongyouth For Botswana high unemploy-ment is symptomatic of an economydependent on the extraction ofminerals and struggling to diversifyits employment base

The country also set a higher targetin education aimed at achieving universalprimary and junior secondary educationby 2016The countryrsquos net primaryenrolment rate reached 100 percent

in 1999 and 2000with gender parityachieved at the primary secondary andtertiary levels Advances have resultedfrom a number of special measuresincluding the elimination of user feesstrengthened institutional capacityto reduce supply constraints and areduction in the average distanceto school

Botswana has also made progressin increasing the proportion of womenemployed in non-agricultural sectorswhich rose from 38 percent in 1995to 42 percent in 2006 However thegovernment is still challenged inmeeting some gender targets as theproportion of women in Parliamentdeclined from 18 percent in 1999 to11 percent in 2004

In the health sector the country hasseen increasing levels of child mortalitywhich rose from 17 per 1000 live birthsin 1998 to 26 in 2006 and the under-five mortality rate has followed a similarpath But on a more positive noteinfant mortality has been improvinglikely benefiting from efforts to preventtransmission of HIV from mother tochild during pregnancyThe maternalmortality rate of 167 per 100000 livebirths in 2006 is still high challengedby a high prevalence of HIV amongwomen at reproductive ages

The countryrsquos health related targetsare impacted by HIV in general asBotswana remains at the epicenter ofthe global HIV pandemic But therehave been some positive signs as HIVprevalence remained largely unchangedfrom 2004 to 2008The stabilizationshould be seen in the context of theextensive rollout of Anti-RetroviralTreatment (ART) and behavioralchanges regarding safer sex practicesamong youth A high incidence oftuberculosis however persists as AIDSreduces resistance to tuberculosis andother diseases

Botswana is an extremely aridcountry and water is scarce but thecountry is on course to ensuringuniversal access to safe drinking waterwith 98 percent of the populationhaving access in 2000 But access toboth potable water and adequatesanitation lags behind in rural areas

Constraints and RisksA number of MDG indicators whileencouraging also mask disparitiesaccording to sex age and geographyBotswana has high levels of incomeinequality evidenced by a poverty ratethatrsquos about 10 percent in cities andnearly four and a half times that in ruralareas Gender-based violence is on therise including rape and lsquopassion killingsrsquo

Botswana also suffers from humanresources and capacity constraints thatimpede implementation of develop-ment programmes and data collectionsystems need to be strengthened forimproved MDG monitoring

The global financial crisis alsopresents risks for sustaining MDGprogressWith a small open economyheavily dependent on commodityexports for its revenue Botswana hasalready been severely affected by anongoing slump in global demand

National ProgrammesThe countryrsquos Vision 2016 has targeteda number of interventions aimed atfurthering MDG achievement including

Botswanarsquos Social Safety Netprogrammes include universal andnon-contributory pensions to seniorssupplemental feeding for thevulnerable and school children andlabor-based relief as well as foodeducation and clothing to childrenwho have lost one or both parentsOne thirdof all households inBotswanaare estimated to have benefited

The National Anti-retroviralTreatment Programme distributesdrugs dietary information and foodbaskets to people living with HIVThe initiative has averted anestimated 53000 deaths from 2000to 2007 and has reduced by about40 percent the number of childrenwho have lost one or both parents

The Prevention of Mother to ChildTransmission Programme providesdrugs to HIV-positive pregnantwomen and formula feed to babieswho have been exposed to HIV Anestimated 10000 child deaths havebeen averted from 2002 to 2007 aresult directly attributable to theexpansion of the programme


CAMBODIA

In spite of recording high levels ofgrowth in recent years Cambodia hasbeen unable to distribute the benefitsof this growth equitably across societyresulting in a rise in inequalities from1994 to 2004while poverty declined inrural areas by 22 percent thatrsquos onlyhalf of the 44 percent drop experiencedin urban areas outside of PhnomPenh and much lower than the60 percent drop in poverty in PhnomPenh itself

With less than six years to go untilthe 2015 Cambodia faces obstacles inits quest to achieve the MDGs not theleast of which is the high rural povertyrate in 2007 927 percent of the nationrsquospoor lived in the countryrsquos rural areasa rise from 916 percent in 2004

Cambodia has been makingprogress and is on track for achievingthe MDGs related to lowering theincidence of HIVAIDSmalaria denguefever and tuberculosis and forimproving child mortality It is alsolikely to achieve its targets under thecountryrsquos MDG 9which focuses onde-mining unexploded ordnance(UXO) and victim assistance

If positive changes are made it maybe possible for Cambodia to meet thetargets related to poverty and hungerthe environment and gender equalityhowever regarding the latter if theissue of domestic violence is notvigorously addressed targets related togender equality may also fall into theldquooff-trackrdquo category Even with drasticchanges the goals related to improvingmaternal health and achieving universalbasic nine year education are unlikelyto be met

Constraints and Risks

A key challenge confronting Cambodiais the countryrsquos pronounced level ofinequality the consequences ofwhich are particularly felt in poorerrural areas where much of the popula-tion residesThe rise in living standardshas been most evident in urban areasand among the richest quintile theextremely poor the bottom 20percent who live below the foodpoverty line have experiencedsignificantly slower growth in realconsumption than the ldquonormalrdquopoor

The share of the lowest quintilein national consumption fell from85 percent in 1993 to 66 percent in2007 well below the 2010 target of10 percent and revealing an importantreversal and negative trendThe differ-ence in share of consumption betweenthe richest 20 percent of Cambodiansand the poorest 20 percent points to awidening gap in wealth as figuresshow that almost half the countryrsquostotal consumption is enjoyed by therichest 20 percent

In the area of MDG monitoring thecountry lacks a consistent and logicaldata collection framework and thecapacities to perform simple analysesand translate these into effectivepolicies and programmes

The country has also not beenimmune to the global economic crisisCambodia has suffered significant joblosses since 2008 in the importanttourism textiles and constructionsectors and there are concerns that therise in food prices will reverse recentgains in lowering poverty levels

National ProgrammesThe political platform of the countrycalled the ldquoRectangular Strategyrdquo whichis now in Phase II addresses severalareas of reform such as combatingcorruption judicial and legal reformpublic administration reform andreform of the armed forces includingdemobilization It identifies four priorityareas enhancing the agriculture sectorrehabilitating and constructing physicalinfrastructure private sector develop-ment and employment generationand capacity building and humanresource development

The strategy is operationalised bythe National Strategic DevelopmentPlan (NDSP) which is the countryrsquospoverty reduction strategyTwenty-eight of its 43 targets are in fact MDGtargetsThe NSDP states that povertyreduction is the governmentrsquos foremostpriority but that achieving it dependson other goals involving political andsocial stability rule of law publicadministration reform infrastructuredevelopment and equitable macro-economic growth

Recently approved programmesaim to speed progress in net primaryschool enrolment and retention ratesand expand access to educationalservices in underserved communitiesin the health sector initiatives includeproviding food to people living withHIV orphans vulnerable children andtuberculosis patients and on providingcomprehensive support for the ruralpoor and vulnerable groups in keyhealth areas


COLOMBIA

According to the 2009 Global HumanDevelopment Report Colombia isranked 77th among 182 countries onthe Human Development Index andhas a relatively high HDI of 0807Neverthelessmany Colombianscontinue to live in extreme povertyWith a Gini coefficient of 0585Colombia is one of the most unequalcountries in the world

While Colombia is on track withmeeting some of the MDGs at thenational level inequality threatens itsachievement for some groups andregions within the country Inequalityis manifest in many ways amongregions between the rural and theurban sector along the lines of genderage and population groups For thisreason it is very likely that someregions will see all goals unmet

Nine MDG indicators are seriouslyat risk to be unmet in Colombia

Income poverty because thereduction of poverty has notbenefited from economic growthexperienced in the last few years

Preschool education in its fullcycle only reaches 489 percent ofeligible children

Pregnancy among adolescents thegoal is to keep it below 15 percenthowever it has been increasing andnow affects over 20 percent ofwomen between the ages of 15and 19

HIV-AIDS a phenomenon for whichlittle data is available but whereexisting data shows an increasingincidence among women

Gender equity because despitehigher academic performancewomen continue to not have thesame opportunities to accessmanagerial posts wages politicalpositions than men and continueto be victims of intra-householdviolence and displacement

Slum dwellers and temporaryhousing 16 percent of Colombianhouseholds still live in degradingconditions

Rural water and basic sanitationwhere coverage is just above 65and 58 percent respectively

National ProgrammesThe government approved a NationalPublic Policy document for the achieve-ment of the MDGs and these are oneof the three International Cooperationpriorities The ldquoRed JUNTOSrdquo strategyfor the eradication of extreme povertyis ldquoan integral and coordinatedintervention of the various actorsand levels of the State that aims atimproving living conditions of thehouseholds in extreme poverty and tohave these households generate theirown incomes in a sustainable wayrdquo

The programme has already helped15 million impoverished households ofwhich 300000 are victims of forceddisplacement The government alsoprovides support through Familias enAccioacuten a programme within the socialsecurity network that providesconditional cash transfers

UNDP Colombia is working toimprove the quality and the impact ofpublic policies on the MDGs Currentlythe Country Office works in 5 pilotdepartments (Cauca CesarCundinamarca Narintildeo and Santander)and two cities (Soacha and Cartagena)and 70 municipalities with theldquoMillennium Municipalitiesrdquoprogramme This pilot programmehas high strategic importance to thedepartments involved In 2009 UNDPColombia supported the design andimplementation process of 11 publicpolicies for the achievement of MDGsThese policies will mobilize a total ofnearly $350 million (originating fromnational resources as well as otherdonors) The funds will be investedtowards the needs of the most vulnera-ble population groups within theselected intervention areas


EL SALVADOR

El Salvador is a lower middle incomecountry that emerged from its decade-long civil war with a strong economicreform programme that broughtimportant social gains in the 1990sincluding cutting levels of extremepoverty and improvements in basiceducation enrolment infant andmaternal mortality access to reproduc-tive health services and access to safedrinking water But progress towardsthe MDGs slowed after 2002 followingthe coffee crisis and the effects of the2001 earthquakesWhile growth hasresumed to about 4 percent in recentyears the government is challenged bygrowing inequalities and the financialand social costs of crime and violence

According to MDG data keynational targets where the country islagging include reducing the prevalenceof underweight children under five andimproving primary education retentionrates and gender equality

The lack of reliable and continuousdata has been an impediment foreffective MDG monitoring in El SalvadorA census conducted last year was thefirst since the end of the countryrsquos civilwar it revealed that most of thedemographic projections previouslyrelied upon were inaccurate

According to recent data thehighest poverty concentrations arefound in rural municipalities near theHonduran and Guatemalan bordersand the added hardships associatedwith displaced populations are stillbeing felt as many of the displaced haveyet to return to their place of origin

The country continues to bechallenged by civil insecurity andviolence persistent inequalities andgender disparities and the threatof devastating earthquakes andhurricanes which in 2001 set humandevelopment back by up to 10 yearsin some municipalities according tothe UN

The financial crisis also posesmultiple risks to MDG progress in ElSalvador Remittances are an importantpart of the countryrsquos economy andwhile the fall in remittances has notbeen as severe as expected the threatstill loomsThe economic crisis has alsoput pressure on the government todivert resources from social programmesto policies of economic stabilizationand rescueThe crisis threatens gainsmade in MDG 1 through a rise in urbanpoverty job loss and reverse migration

Changing weather patterns alsopose serious risks for El SalvadorAccording to the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change agriculturalproductivity in the region could fallby up to 15 percent due to shifts intemperature and rainfall patternsand the risks of natural disasters andtheir catastrophic consequences wouldbe heightened

National ProgrammesAn important national effort currentlyunderway that cuts across several MDGtargets is RED SOLIDARIA which ishelping improve social and economicconditions in El Salvadorrsquos poorestmunicipalities It includes a conditionalcash transfer programme support forschool and health facilities andfinancing for basic infrastructure suchas water sanitation and electricityAdditionally it is providing micro-finance and capacity developmentfor much-needed employment genera-tion The programme has been instru-mental in tackling extreme poverty inremote parts of El Salvador and hasreceived support from several donorsand UN agencies Currently UNDP isassisting the government in scalingup the initiative

Other national interventions havefocused on job creation through ruralinfrastructure projects and on socialprotection and safety net programmesto help mitigate the effects of theeconomic crisis on laid-off workersand vulnerable groups


ETHIOPIA

Ethiopia has made some notable gainstowards the MDGs supported bystrong economic growth in recentyears which was more than 11 percentfrom 2004 to 2008 However the effectsof drought the global financial crisisand the unpredictability of ODApresent challenges to its continuedgrowth and progress

Ethiopiarsquos poverty levels areimproving in terms of numbers andseverity with the poverty rate droppingby nearly 7 percent to 387 percent from 1996 to 2005 But success hasbeen uneven with poverty posing agreater challenge in urban areas withincreasing inequality In rural communi-ties the governmentrsquos pro-poor initia-tives have played a role in improvingliving conditions through extensionprogrammes for small-scale agriculturefood security programmes and produc-tive safety net schemes

The country has made significantprogress in achieving most educationtargetsThe number of students inprimary school increased to 14 millionreflecting a gross primary enrolmentratio of 916 percent in 200607 upfrom 374 percent in 199596

Ethiopia has also taken steps toraise the status of women resulting inthe enrolment of more girls in schooland improved womenrsquos healthcareThe government has adoptedeconomic programmes to be moreresponsive to women includingagricultural extension and smallbusiness promotion and has alsoenacted legislative reforms to protectthe rights of and open opportunitiesfor women including the NationalPlan of Action for Women

Ethiopiarsquos National Child SurvivalStrategy has focused attention onimproving the under-five mortality rateand on diseases that affect childrenand the poor Rates of immunizationhave increased four-fold since the early1990s helping Ethiopia become one ofthe few African countries to achieve anincrease of more than 50 percent in theproportion of children immunizedagainst measles

The government is also takingsteps to improve maternal mortalityand child health and is increasinghealth services for mothers and youngchildren and expanding coverage inrural areasTwo national programmeshave helped support the governmentrsquosefforts Making Pregnancy Safeand Integrated Management ofChildhood Illnesses

Ethiopia has demonstrated itscommitment in the fight against HIVby expanding health facilities andintroducing national preventionprogrammes along with a clear policyto supply Anti Retroviral Treatment(ART) to AIDS patients It has achievedthe goal of halting the rise in theprevalence of HIV and appears tobe experiencing the beginningsof a decline

A large population of 75 million ona fragile resource base makes environ-mental sustainability a critical issue forEthiopia as the majority of the poordepend on the environment for theirlivelihoodsThree key elements definethe environmental challenge inEthiopia access to safe drinking waterreversing soil and forest degradationand improving conditions of urbanslum-dwellers

Constraints and RisksAlthough Ethiopia has made someimportant progress there is a need toensure that the benefits of economicgrowth are more widely distributed inboth urban and rural areas and thatincreased inequalities are addressedwhich could otherwise threaten gainsalready achieved

The unpredictability of ODA hasalso been cited as a short and mediumterm challenge Ethiopia continues toface increasing unpredictability offoreign aid and a lack of commitmentto harmonization just as more ODA isneeded for poverty reduction and MDGefforts In addition despite a greateremphasis on building national capaci-ties continued weak capacity levelsremain and constrain programmeimplementation

National ProgrammesEthiopia has taken decisive steps toensure that its MDG efforts stay ontrack It has formulated the PASDEP itsFive-Year MDGs-based Medium-TermDevelopment Plan and implementedseveral key national initiativesincluding

The Agricultural Development LedIndustrialization Strategy whichaims to put agriculture at the centerof the countrys development andenhance the productivity of smallfarmers and to improve food security

The Productive Safety NetProgrammewhich targets thechronically vulnerable and foodinsecure helping them to improvetheir livelihoods and build assetsThe programme has targetedmore than eight million chronicallypoor and vulnerable householdsin 287 districts

The Ethiopian Health ExtensionProgramme has deployed healthworkers to the lowest administrativelevels One initiative a campaign toimmunize children against measlesdiphtheria pertusis and tetanusdispatches specialized travelingmedical teams and has helpedincrease immunization rates byfour-fold since the early 1990s


GHANA

Ghanarsquos experience with growth andpoverty reduction is an importantsuccess story in AfricaThe countryrsquosimpressive growth has averaged over 5percent since 1984 and was more than6 percent in 200607allowing for greaterinvestments in poverty reduction andsocial programmes From 2001 to 2005poverty related expenditures increasedfrom 47 percent to 85 percent of GDP

Ghana has made progress integrat-ing the MDGs into its developmentpolicy frameworks and povertyreduction strategies Regarding MDG 1it has succeeded in almost halving thecountryrsquos poverty rate and has loweredthe number of absolute poor from79 million in 199192 to 62 million in200506 However rising inequalitypresents an ongoing challenge forthe government

Performance on indicators relatedto malnutrition is improving suggest-ing that Ghana could reach the MDGtarget of halving the number of peoplesuffering from hunger

Strides in expanding access toprimary education have also beenachievedThe primary gross enrolmentratio increased from 56 percent in199192 to 75 percent in 200506 withnet enrolment rising to 69 percent bythe end of that period However schoolcompletion rates are falling and morethan a quarter of girls enroled in gradesone through four are expected to notcomplete primary school

According to recent data thegender ratio in primary education was096 in 2008 slightly below the paritytarget set for 2005 with the degree ofgender imbalance increasing at higherlevels of schooling In 2008 femaleenrolment was 44 percent in seniorhigh school and 33 percent for tertiaryeducation Regarding women inParliament the ratio dropped to87 percent in 2008 after reaching109 percent in 2006

Ghana ismaking progress in reducinginfant mortality and in lowering theunder-five mortality ratewhich droppedfrom 111 per 1000 live births in 2003to 80 in 2005 But it is behind inreducing maternal mortality as assisteddeliveries by trained birth attendantsare going in the wrong directiondropping from 46 to 35 percent from2005 to 2007

Females accounted for about60 percent of all HIVAIDS cases in 2007and the prevalence rate among pregnantwomen aged 15ndash49 increased from27 to 32 percent from 2005 to 2006before falling back to 26 percent in2007 According to the Ghana AidsCommission the fluctuation in theprevalence rate is a sign only of astabilization of the epidemic and notan actual reversal

The proportion of tuberculosiscases detected and cured under theDirect Observed Treatment ShortCourse increased from 48 to 70 percentfrom 2001 to 2007while the under-fivemalaria fatality rate improved from 37percent in 2002 to 21 percent in 2006-07 correlated with the increased use ofinsecticide treated nets by children andpregnant women

Access to safe drinking waterimproved markedly to 74 percent in2005-06meaning that the 2015 targethas been reached But a challengeremains regarding Ghanarsquos forest coverfrom 1990 to 2005 the countryrsquos forestcover declined from 33 to 24 percentdue to such factors as inefficientmanagement of forest resources andpoor enforcement of regulations onnatural resource utilization

While several indicators point toGhanarsquos progress towards the MDGsthey can also mask stark disparitiesaccording to sex age and geographyGhana is divided into three ecologicalzones coastal forest and savannah thenorthern savannah for the most part ismore deprived than the southerncoastal areas And within each zonethere are wide urban-rural disparitieswith poverty rates improving fastest inthe urban areas

TheWorld Bank identifies threemajorconstraints that if eliminatedwould helpGhana sustain and accelerate growthand poverty reduction in the future

Severe gaps in infrastructure spendingGhana spends approximately3-4 percent of GDP per year lessthan needed to address thecountryrsquos infrastructure needs insuch areas as electricity water andsanitation A power crisis is alreadycosting the country an estimated15 percent of GDP annually whilea shortfall in water and sanitationthreatens both economic activitiesand public health

Low productivity especially inagriculture Ghanarsquos productivityremains below other Africaneconomies including Mauritius andBotswanaWith irrigation almostnonexistent Ghana depends onrain-fed agriculture Productivityhas recently begun to increase butthe use of modern agriculturaltechniques remains limited

Weak business and investmentclimate but improving The mostimportant constraints relate toinvestment in electricity and accessto finance affecting especially smalland medium-size enterprisesTheseconstraints limit Ghanaian firmsfrom investing expanding outputand becoming more productive

National ProgrammesGhana seeks to attain middle incomestatus by 2015 and has identified fourthemes in its development agenda jobcreation expansion of infrastructureinvesting in human capital and transpar-ent and accountable governance For theMDGs the government has proposedseveral important initiatives includingfree primary education for all malariaprevention and control strengtheningthe National Health Insurance Schemeto expand access of health coverage forthe poor and for pregnant women andincreasing access to clean waterespecially in guinea-worm endemicareas and improving agriculture

The government has also proposedestablishing the Savannah AcceleratedDevelopment Authority with the goal oftargeting all northern areas and closingthe development gap between thenorth and other regions of the country

One programme focusing on MDG 2a capitation grant scheme to bolsterschool enrolment rates has had a positiveimpact originally introduced in 40districts and later extended nationwidethe capitation grant of approximatelyUS$3 per enrolled child has helped toincrease enrolment In one districtadditional enrolments included about33 percent of children who had droppedoutThe surge in enrolments has alsoresulted in new challenges includingthe need to improve basic schoolinfrastructure and teacher training


INDIA

Indiarsquos growth rate has been impressiveover the past five years averaging77 percent but high growth rates havenot translated into an acceleratedreduction in poverty

Overall progress on the MDGs inIndia has been unevenwith incomepoverty and water targets appearingto be on track but tough challengespersist in reducing hunger the gendergap in education and improving healthindicators and access to sanitationWithout interventions to improve thecurrent rate of progress India will behighly challenged in meeting many ofthe MDGs by 2015

The percentage of Indiarsquos popula-tion living below the poverty linedeclined from 36 percent in 1993-94to 28 percent in 2004-05 but theperformance is considered disappoint-ing as the poverty line on which theestimate is based had not changedsince 1973-74 when per capitaincomes were much lower

Recent data also reveals that almost46 percent of Indian children under theage of four suffered from malnutritionin 200506 with almost no improve-ment since 1998 And while progresshas been made in girlsrsquo enrolment inprimary school they continue to lagbehind boys as only 73 percent of girlsattend primary school compared to86 percent of boys

The government has introduced27 ambitious targets in its EleventhNational Plan (2008-2012) of which13 can be disaggregated at the statelevel The targets fall into six categoriesincome and poverty education healthwomen and children and infrastructureand the environment In the plan Indiaaims to have clean drinking water forall by 2009 to cut malnutrition in halfamong infants by 2012 and to reducethe maternal mortality rate to 1 per1000 live births by the same year

In several areas the national goals gofurther than MDG targets For exampleIndia has created specific employment-related targets which include reducingunemployment rates among theeducated and increasing wages forunskilled workers

But the big challenge standing inthe way of MDG achievement remainsthe extreme variations and inequalitiesthat exist across the wide expanse ofIndiarsquos multi-ethnic and regionallandscapewith the poorest statesenduring the worst deprivation andaccounting for the lowest health andsocial indicatorsThe highly populatedstates of UP BiharMP Orissa andRajasthan account for almost half of thecountryrsquos incidence of severe poverty

Civil society organizations workingto keep policy attention focused on theneeds of disadvantaged communitiesand to shed light on their exclusionfrom development gains are trackingprogress of specific groups such as theDalits and Scheduled Tribes (STs) andare producing MDG reports that areused as advocacy tools In this way civilsociety is helping to focus attention onthe special needs of vulnerable groupsand on the challenge confronting MDGachievement in Indiarsquos deeper pocketsof poverty

Such efforts by civil society aresignificant as progress towards theMDGs can be hampered by inadequatedata collection and monitoring at thedistrict level For the governmentwhich is emphasizing the devolution offunctions and resources to districts forimplementing key social and economicprogrammes the need for effectivelocal monitoring and evaluation iscritical for MDG success

A number of participatory approachesincluding Social Audits CommunityScore Cards and Public ExpenditureBudget Reviews are being used to helpimprove local monitoring of programmedesign and implementation

In addition the UN Joint Programmeon Convergence is working to coordi-nate available resources includingthat of government to support MDGactivities in the districts and to addresslocal needs and priorities

Constraints and RisksWhile the full impact of the globaleconomic downturn on India is not yetknown it is expected to translate intoa loss of much-needed jobs and areduction of receipts from fallingexports and remittances threateningfuture investment and governmentspending levelsThe Self-EmployedWomenrsquos Association (SEWA) withsupport from UNDP is conducting arapid impact assessment to gauge howthe crisis is affecting poor and margin-alized groups in several states with afocus on such sectors as textiles autoparts jewelry waste picking andsmall agriculture

National ProgrammesIndiarsquos Eleventh National Plan allocatessignificant investment for povertyreduction and social services schemesto be administered at the local levelTwo efforts that have yielded positiveresults are the National RuralEmployment Guarantee Programme(NREGA) and the Sarva ShikshaAbhiyan Programme (SSA) aneducation initiative aimed at providingall children aged 6 -14 with a qualityeducationThe latter along with TheMid-Day School Feeding Scheme arecredited with bringing 25 millionchildren into the education systemin five years and in raising the girlenrolment ratio for primary schoolto nearly 95 percent in 2005

NREGA was launched to assistdrought-prone districts in Indiaoffering an employment scheme thatguarantees 100 days of wage employ-ment per household The programmeappears to have identified a need inthe vulnerable communities where itoperates in 200 districts 35 millionhouseholds have completed 100 daysof work including many women


INDONESIA

After enduring the effects of theAsian financial crisis and the economicand human toll of the 2004 tsunamiIndonesia has been able to registerimpressive growth with a GDP of6 percent from 2005 to 2008 Thecountry is also making steady progresstowards meeting most of its MDGtargets but remains challenged in somekey areas including in reducing incomepoverty creating employment forwomen and in increasing access to safedrinking water and sanitation services

Indonesia has already succeeded inhalving the number of people livingbelow US$1 a day as the proportion ofthe population falling below this markdropped from more than 20 percent in1990 to 75 percent in 2008 But usingIndonesiarsquos national poverty line thenumber is higher some 35 millionpeople or 154 percent of the popula-tion are living in poverty and nearlyhalf of Indonesians survive on under$2 a daymaking them vulnerable toslight changes in food and energyprices economic downturns andenvironmental disasters Following thetsunami in 2005-06 the number ofpoor increased from 351 million to393 million before improving anddropping below 2005 levels

Indonesia is also affected bysignificant rural-urban inequalitieswith a ratio of rural to urban poor of17 1 indicating that poverty remainshighly concentrated outside citiesPoverty however did rise in urban areasbetween 1996 and 2008 likely affectedby internal migration a lack of jobs andlimited availability of social services

The country remains challenged inmeeting its gender targetsThe share ofwomen employed in the non-agricul-tural sector has increased slowlyfrom 292 percent in 1990 to 33 percentin 2008 Gender inequality persistsdespite Indonesia having achievedconsiderable progress in female accessto primary and higher educationThere are significant wage disparitiesand in 2003 the share of women inwage employment in non-agriculturalsectors was the lowest among ASEANcountries for which data was reported

Indonesiarsquos maternal mortality rateis also troublesome Although droppingby more than 21 percent from 1990 to2008 at 307 per 100000 live births thecountry is still far from its nationaltarget of 110 per 100000 live birthsAnd while there is some questionabout the datarsquos accuracy Indonesiarsquosmaternal mortality ratio is exceptionallyhigh for a middle-income country andis comparable to LDCs in the region

Last year only 308 percent of theurban population had access to safedrinking water compared to an evenlower 9 percent in rural communitieswhere basic services and infrastructureare limitedThree quarters of Indonesiansstill do not have access to reliablepiped water supplies and inadequatesanitation and waste managementplague major Indonesian citiesThegovernment recently allocated US$902million to fund sanitation developmentprogrammes but the impact has yet tobe assessed

Constraints and RisksThe current global economic crisisthreatens Indonesiarsquos poverty reductionefforts and sustained progress in theMDGsThe crisis is having an impacton important exports such as rubberwhich dropped by 32 percent in thefirst quarter of 2009Manufacturingof tin footwear and textiles are alsosufferingThe government aiming tosoften the harsh effects of the crisis onthe countryrsquos people and economy hasoffered subsidy programs for the textileand footwear sectors and support forcotton production in several provinces

Indonesia an island-nation is alsovulnerable to the risks of climatechange and to increasing weather-related natural disasters Since 1990the country has endured devastatingfloods droughts earthquakes andtsunamis which have taken heavyhuman tolls and turned back progressin social and economic development

National ProgrammesIn an effort to speed up MDG attain-ment the government introduced theNational Program for CommunityEmpowerment Since 2006 it hasprovided social assistance and supportto 185 million poor households alongwith training and grants for smallbusinesses By 2010 an estimated 204million Indonesians are expected tohave benefitted from the programmewith hopes of about 40 percent of thebeneficiaries emerging from poverty


IRAQ

Mired by years of political instabilityand war Iraqrsquos attention in the pastwas understandably centred on thepriorities of human security andgovernance with little opportunity tofocus on the goals of social andeconomic development and MDGachievement Donor support was alsoaligned with the immediate needs ofthe Iraqi people during the countryrsquosperiod of conflict with internationalassistance consequently not focusedon the MDGs

With an improving security situationthe government with support fromUNDPand other stakeholders has adopted amore long-term approach to nationalcapacity development needsincluding increased attention totailoring MDG targets to Iraq-specificcircumstances and integrating theminto national planning processes

Even so due to the countryrsquos specialsituation the government has notemphasized the MDGs as being veryrelevant for its planning purposes or foridentifying national priorities and theyare not included as a key element inthe international aid package for Iraqwhich remains focused on security andpolitical issues and on private-sectorled economic reforms

And in spite of recent improve-ments Iraq still faces familiar obstaclesin promoting development and humansecurity the withdrawal of the multi-national forces and fiscal challengesresulting from the sharp drop in oilprices have added to current levels ofuncertainty and have further slowedprogress towards MDG achievements

The government produced its firstMDG-related report in 2005which wasa statistical review of the MDG indica-tors It prepared a follow-up reportagainst global MDG targets in 2007

And while Iraq has improved datacollection needed for MDG monitoringin some cases progress has beenlimited and presents significant bottle-necks as is the case regarding goal 7on CO2 emissions for which there hasbeen no effective system for collectingor gauging data

The MDG reports show that Iraq islargely not on track to meet manyglobal MDG targets or has been unableto gauge progress due to lack of dataFor the goal of reducing hunger andextreme poverty by 2015 officialestimates suggests the target hasalready been achieved however otherassessments point out that malnutri-tion and hunger are low because of theuniversal distribution of food basketsand if not for that their incidencewould rise dramatically and affect morethan 20 percent of the population

A major concern is the drop in oilprices due to the global economiccrisis which is expected to have a directimpact on MDG progress includingon employment generation and socialsafety nets and investments in healtheducation and infrastructure

The lack of MDG ownership bygovernment capacity shortfalls and thereluctance of foreign investors tochannel much-needed investment intoIraq due to security concerns havebeen key impediments to progressHowever even without a firm commit-ment or framework for national MDGtargets the Iraqi government is priori-tizing such areas as poverty reductionbasic education and improvements inchild and maternal healthcare


JAMAICA

Jamaica appears on track to achievinga number of its national targetsaccording to its latest MDG reportPoverty in Jamaica declined from284 percent in 1990 to 168 percentin 2001 and enrolment in primaryeducation is near universal

Jamaica has been making progressin the area of gender but is laggingbehind in a number of its health-related targets including child andmaternal mortality And while thegovernment has improved access forsafe drinking water and sanitationsystems it is falling behind in anotherkey area related to MDG 7 and theenvironment protecting thecountryrsquos important forest cover

But while past MDG reportingsuggests that Jamaica can meet someof its poverty targets by 2015 theconclusion appears to be somewhatcontroversial due to the countryrsquosmeager growth performance whichaveraged less than one percent peryear over the past fifteen years andlimitations in the measurement ofpoverty indicators that have relied onlow and outdated poverty lines todetermine headcount rates

Constraints and RisksThe major risk for the achievement ofthe MDGs in Jamaica comes from thecurrent and expected impact of theglobal economic crisis which threatensthe countryrsquos vital tourism and exportrevenues and in turn governmentspending on important socialprogrammes including schoolconstruction and teacher salaries

Moreover Jamaica must contendwith a heavy debt burden as 56 centsof each budget dollar is spent on debtservice compared with 26 cents on thecombined priorities of healtheducation and violence-related security

In the area of health where Jamaicahas fallen behind in several of itstargets the government has beenconstrained by limited resourcescapacities and a heavily decentralizedstructure that has led to bottlenecks inboth health service delivery and inmonitoring And while the spread ofHIV remains a concern for most of thepopulation budgetary constraintscombined with cultural stigmatizationthreaten the impact and success ofnational campaigns

Jamaica is also challenged bylimitations in data measurement andMDG monitoring A UNDP project ondata enhancement has beenformulated to address this bottleneckand is aimed at harmonizing andimproving the gathering of economicand social statistics

National ProgrammesThe Jamaican government recentlyapproved its national developmentplanVision 2030which addresses theMDGs and the key human securitygoals of reducing crime and violenceOne notable initiative aimed at MDGachievement is the Programme forAdvancement through Health andEducation (PATH) a conditional cashtransfer programme that has helped toimprove the economic and social well-being of some 300000 poor JamaicansActivities are also being carried out topromote alternative livelihoods anddisaster risk reduction in rural areasand to address climate change andenergy needs in conjunction withMDG 7


KYRGYZSTAN

Kyrgyzstan has achieved an averagegrowth rate of 55 percent per annumin recent years but poverty remainswidespread as more than a third of thepopulation lives below the poverty lineand the country remains challenged indelivering basic services particularly inrural areas Government efforts aimedat reducing the incidence of extremepoverty look to have paid off as66 percent of the population livedin extreme poverty in 2007 ndash alreadywell under the national target of129 percent Progress has been slowin reducing malnutrition amongchildren and adults although successin meeting the goals by 2015 isthought likely

Wide disparities and incomeinequalities continue to present achallenge with poverty highly concen-trated in the countryrsquos rural areas In2007 417 percent of the rural popula-tion lived in poverty compared to232 percent in cities

While literacy rates among youthare high at 997 percent resources forthe education sector are seen as insuffi-cient for sustaining the necessaryimprovements needed to meet thenational target of all boys and girlscompleting basic secondary educationFurthermore the quality of educationat all levels has been declining due toinabilities in ensuring adequate teachertraining retaining qualified staff and inmodernizing management ofeducational institutions

Health-related MDGs are consid-ered to be the most difficult forKyrgyzstan Infant and child mortalityhave been declining but at a rateslower than needed and there hasbeen a worrisome increase in thenumber deaths of newborns due tolack of medical assistance and the lowquality of careMaternal mortality ratesat 519 cases per 100000 live births in2007 are high

Likewise none of the indicators ofMDG 6 aimed at combating HIVAIDSmalaria and tuberculosis are likely tobe achieved and the number of HIVcases has risen sharply from 484 in2003 to 2363 in 2009The incidenceof tuberculosis (over 100 cases per100000 people) is at an epidemic leveland correlated with critical healthconditions in the penitentiary systempoor nutrition and living conditionsAlthough it declined by 165 per centby 2007 compared to 2003 the targetof 52 cases in 2015 is unlikely to beachievedThe rate of immunizationof children against measles howeverstrikes a more positive note and hasbeen on track

In the area of gender severalwomen have been appointed asgovernment ministers but only 17percent of high level civil servicepositions are held by womenMenoccupy higher-paid managerial andspecialist positions while womenconcentrate on lower-paid occupationsin education health and social services

Kyrgyzstan can claim somesuccesses related to the environmentas the country has reached its targetsfor greenhouse gas and CO2 emissionsNinety-three percent of the populationhad access to potable water in 2007which is already above the target of 90percent by 2015 Although this quanti-tative indicator portrays a positivepicture water quality still presents achallenge

Only 242 percent of the populationhad access to adequate sewerage in2007 due to considerable under-invest-ment in the rehabilitation of seweragesystems And while land covered byforests and protected areas has beenincreasing itrsquos been at a rate lower thanneeded to achieve the national target

MDG concerns and targets havebeen addressed in the newly adoptedCountry Development Strategy (CDS)for 2009-2011 which includes 19 keyMDG indicators The government isalso currently preparing its long-termStrategy 2020 in which the MDGs areexpected to be fully incorporated

National efforts in support of theMDGs include protection of the poorand vulnerable through the provisionof insurance and social assistanceservices which include a number ofcash benefits and privileges

The government has alsoprioritized improving the quality ofeducation and aims to increase invest-ment in the sector for better mainte-nance and rehabilitation of schoolsand procurement of learning materialsand computers

Constraints and RisksKyrgyzstanrsquos governance structuresremain insufficient for carrying out thenecessary investments and policymeasures needed for sustainedimprovement in basic social servicesand living conditions and capacitiesare particularly weak at the locallevel although progress is beingmade in areas where donor supporthas been extensive

The country confronts the risksof increased water energy and foodinsecurities power shortages haveseverely affected health social servicesand water supplies in rural areas

In addition the global economiccrisis threatens to exacerbate currentconditions and vulnerabilities andeffect important gains already madeThe Kyrgyz economy has already seenfalling demand for the countrysexports In the first quarter of 2009exports contracted by 30 percent froma year earlier reducing governmentrevenues needed for social andeconomic spending


LAO PEOPLErsquoS DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC (PDR)

Lao PDR is a landlocked transitioneconomy where agriculture representsabout 47 percent of its GDP and70 percent of Laotians rely on subsis-tence farming Nearly 83 percent ofthe population lives in rural or remoteregions with inadequate access to basicservices with an estimated 32 percentliving below the poverty line

The government has made someimportant development progress inrecent years But Lao PDR remains aleast developed country with troublingindicators in hunger and malnutritionmaternal mortality and in environmen-tal sustainability and in areas affectedby unexploded ordnances (UXOs) theincidence of poverty is particularly high

Lao PDR however is on track toachieve some MDGs benefiting froman 8 percent growth rate fueled byexports tourism copper logging andoverseas remittancesWhile it is ontrack to achieve the income povertytarget pervasive inequalities in urbanand rural areas and among thecountryrsquos ethnic groups persist

About 40 percent of children underfive suffer from chronic malnutrition Amulti-donor effort entitled REACH isworking to alleviate child hungerthrough complementary feedingprogrammes treatment of acutemalnutrition and by increasinghousehold food security

In the education sector enrolmentin primary school shows good progresswith a rate of more than 89 percent in2008 However this masks wide dispari-ties again between urbanrural areaswith high rates of illiteracy in ruralareas and among non-Lao ethnicgroups Challenges remain in address-ing the need for greater access for girlsat all school levels and in improvingoverall retention rates

The country has made progressregarding the number of women inpolitics womenrsquos representation inParliament is at 25 percent andwomenrsquos involvement in local leveldecision-making processes is relativelystrongWomenrsquos participation in thenon-agricultural sector has also improvedwith more than 40 percent of womenemployed in the civil service Lao PDRis on track to reach these targets

Infant and child mortality rateshave declined significantly butimmunization coverage needs to beincreased particularly in rural areas Alack of awareness information andinfrastructure present significantbarriers but the government iscommitted to maintaining progress

Although improving the maternalmortality rate of 405 per 100000 livebirths in 2005 is among the highest inthe regionWomen lack access toskilled health personnel and adequatehealth infrastructure and access toreproductive health services and rightsto family planning are limited

Lao PDR has a low prevalence ofHIV estimated at 01 percentVulnerability to the disease is highhowever given population mobilityand migration to neighboringcountriesThe country also has a highTB prevalence and non-communicablediseases are a growing challenge

Lack of quantitative targets on theenvironment has made effectivemonitoring problematic But logging inLao PDR including illegal loggingcould have serious repercussions forthe environment and for climatechangeThe government remainscommitted however to raising forestcover from 29 percent currently to 50percent by 2015 and is receivingsupport from UNDP and FAO in sustain-able forestry management

Constraints and RisksWhile Lao PDR has made improve-ments in several areas and is on trackto achieve some MDGs there is concernabout the sustainability of MDG gainsgiven the countryrsquos reliance on ODAToaddress this the government hassought support from UNDP to helpidentify alternative options to ensurethe continuity of MDG progressbeyond 2015

Lack of capacity in almost all areashas been a significant constraint on themanagement and delivery of social andeconomic interventions for the MDGsAs a response a human resourcedevelopment strategy is now beingprepared with the aim of strengtheningcapacities in all government sectors

Being relatively isolated and notfully linked with the global economyhas somewhat shielded Lao PDR fromthe global economic crisis But copperprices are down a third from recentlevels and tourism remittance FDI andexport revenues are declining threat-ening to constrain social spending

National ProgrammesLao PDR plans to graduate from LeastDeveloped Country status by 2020meaning that it needs to ensuresustained and inclusive economicgrowth over the coming yearsTo thisend the government has prioritized theMDGs in its 7th National Socio-Economic Plan and is carrying out keyinterventions in such areas as basiceducation healthcare inequalityagriculture and rural and infrastructuredevelopment With support fromdonor partners and the UXO Trust Fundit is also continuing mine-clearanceefforts in affected northern andsouthern regions where poverty anddeprivation levels are disproportionate


MALAWI

Malawi is one of the worldrsquos poorestcountries and ranks among the loweston the Human Development IndexWhile poverty here continues to bewidespread the countryrsquos recent MDGreport points to some improvementand indicates that the poverty headcounthad dropped from 54 percent in 1990to 40 percent in 2007 Significantprogress has been recorded in loweringthe incidence of extreme povertywhich dropped from 236 percent in1990 to 15 percent in 2007 At thecurrent rate it is expected that theproportion of ultra poor will be52 percent by 2015more than 6percent below the national target

Malawirsquos past fortunes in foodsecurity have been volatile due tointense floods and droughts Efforts tocounter this trend and enhance agricul-tural productivity have yielded somepositive results and contributed tohalving the prevalence of underweightchildren from 28 percent in 1990 to14 percent in 2007 already meetingthe 2015 target Sustaining thismomentum will require substantialinjections of resources into the foodsecurity sector and here the countryremains vulnerable to the affects ofthe global financial crisis as mostagricultural inputs are imported

In the education sector thegovernment has adopted a nationalpolicy aimed at ensuring that allchildren complete primary school Netenrolment increased from 58 percent in1990 to 75 percent in 2007The rate isexpected to continue to rise but still fallshort of the universal target by 2015The education sector is challenged by ashortage of qualified teachers inadequateinfrastructure and poor access to facili-ties for children with special needs

Illiteracy in Malawi is thought tohave impeded MDG progress in thepast and the government has madereversing it a national priority Literacylevels have been rising as a result to82 percent for youth aged 15-24 upfrom 68 percent in 1990

Malawirsquos gender-related targetsremain troublesomewith the propor-tion of women in non-agriculturalemployment reaching only 15 percentin 2007The proportion of girls to boysin secondary school has increased to76 percent in 2007 representing a 50percent rise from the early 1990s butit is unlikely that full parity will bereached by 2015 And in Parliamentonly 14 percent of seats are heldby women

The under-five mortality rate hasdeclined from 234 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 122 in 2006 puttingthe country on track for meeting thistargetThe infant mortality rate has alsoimproved and the target is likely to bemet by 2015 Even so childbirth is aleading cause of death and disabilityamong women of reproductive agedue to the lack of skilled healthpersonnel attending to deliveries

Like most countries in sub-SaharanAfrica HIV poses a significant threat tothe achievement of the MDGs and canturn back important developmentgains But in Malawi HIV prevalencepeaked around 1998 and droppedfrom 174 percent in 1994 to 12 percentin 2006

Malawi remains challenged byenvironment pressures and the contin-uing decline in forest cover due to itslimited land mass and the needs of agrowing population In 2005 about 36percent of its land was forested a lossof about 12 percent from 1990 Atcurrent rates of decline less than a thirdof Malawi is expected to be forestcovered by 2015 far below the50 percent target

National ProgrammesThe Government has singled outhunger as the main impediment forachieving the MDGs and has put inplace an extensive fertilizer and agricul-tural subsidy programme to lower thecost of food production for poorfarmers Efforts appear to be paying offin the last three agricultural seasonsMalawi has experienced better thanaverage harvests of maize the staplefood crop

In another priority sector theFunctional Literacy for Integrated RuralDevelopment Programme is support-ing Malawirsquos efforts to increase literacyand improve livelihoods in 12 districtswhere it is targeting illiterate adultsand youth above primary school ageAlong with providing livelihoodassistance to beneficiaries the efforthas promoted rural and economicdevelopment in the districts where itoperates As of the end of 2008 theproportion of participants assessed anddeclared literate was 813 percent formales and 731 percent of females

Malawi must contend with anumber of critical issues that affect itsprogress towards the MDGsTheseinclude i) a critical shortage of capacityand skills needed for effective deliveryof basic services and the implementa-tion of development programmes ii)limitations in data collection systemsneeded for effective MDG monitoringand iii) improvements in infrastructureneeded to support rural and economicdevelopment including roads foodstorage and energy systems


MONGOLIA

In spite of several years of strongeconomic growth and an average GDPof 75 percent from 2001 to 2008poverty levels in Mongolia remainhighwith recent data revealing that352 percent of Mongolians live inpoverty Largely dependent on exportrevenues from its main commoditiesMongolia has been hard hit by fallingcopper prices since the onset of theglobal economic crisis causing adramatic reversal in the countryrsquoseconomic outlook and further strainingthe socio-economic welfare of itsyoung population about 59 percentof whom are under age 30

Mongolia is the second-largestlandlocked country in the world withlittle arable land and large numbers ofnomadic and semi-nomadic people whodepend on subsistence herding activi-ties and livestock for their livelihoods

While it has not taken a formaldecision to prioritize MDG targetsabove others the government hasexpressed its commitment to achievingthe MDGs and has developed a MDG-based National Development Strategythrough 2021 as a basis for formulatingprogrammes and strategies

Mongoliarsquos most recent MDG reportwas produced in 2007 with participationfrom civil society Along with gaugingthe countryrsquos progress in the eighttarget areas it also includes a ninthgoal that the government adoptedaimed at strengthening human rightsand democratic governance Due tomonitoring constraints only 10 of thecountryrsquos 24 MDG-related targets havemeasurable indicators and only thesecan be used to assess progressTheindicators were grouped into thecategories of lsquoearly achievedrsquo lsquolikelyto achieversquo lsquoslowrsquo and lsquoregressingrsquo

MDG targets viewed as beingachieved early include gender parity insecondary education the percentage ofchildren immunized for measles andinfant and under five mortality rates

The targets deemed likely toachieve by 2015 include the prevalenceof underweight children gender parityin primary school maternal andtuberculosis mortality rates thepercentage of birth deliveries attendedby health care personnel and carbondioxide emission levels

In the ldquoslowrdquocategory is the propor-tion of people living in poverty andwith inadequate sanitation as well asgender parity in tertiary educationMongolia is regressing in netenrolment in primary school theliteracy rate among youth aged 15-24the proportion of women engaged innon-agriculture employment and inmeeting forest cover targets

The government has beenchallenged by regional disparities thathave been widening including growinginequalities and higher poverty rates inrural areasThe governmentrsquosdecentralization agenda includingfiscal decentralization has not yet beenadopted and local authorities havebeen unable to generate revenues ontheir own to invest in developmentpriorities including for improvingbasic services such as safe drinkingwater electricity and sanitation Exceptfor areas related to miningmost of theeconomic activities are concentrated inthe capital UlaanbaatarMigration fromrural to urban areas has increaseddramatically as people migrate to citiesin search of jobs adding to a rise inslum dwellers and urban pollution

A lack of disaggregated andcredible data coupled with inadequateanalytical capacities challengeMongoliarsquos MDG monitoring system

Constraints and RisksMongoliarsquos economy remains vulnera-ble to fluctuations in the global marketespecially international prices forcopper and gold MDG targets mostaffected by the recent crisis includethose related to income povertyemployment generation education andthe environment

Since the outset of the globaleconomic crisis Mongolia hasimplemented a number of short-termmeasures to soften its impact on thepopulation including subsidizing thesupply of meat and petrol productssuspending import duties on wheatflour and obtaining discounted pricesfor flour from Russia

To lessen the economic hardshipand improve income-earning andemployment opportunities a numberof national programmes are underwayThese include vocational training andenterprise development initiatives thathave assisted more than 3000 smalland micro entrepreneurs in rural areashelping to boost household incomesby 30 percent Under the EnterpriseMongolia Project credit and loans tosmall entrepreneurs are being madeavailable and more favorable labourlaws and regulations are being adoptedand amended


MOROCCO

Moroccorsquos progress in recent yearshas been mixed reflected by the dropin its human development indexranking (HDI) to 126 in 2005 from123 the previous year believed tobe the result of poor literacy andschool enrolment levels The countryrsquoslow HDI rankings have reinvigoratedthe focus on MDG attainment resultingin a clear acceleration since 2005

Achievement of the MDGs is nowofficial government policyMoroccowas one of the first Arab countries todevelop a national set of MDG goalswith expanded and adapted indicatorsthat have been engendered Genderdisaggregated data have been madeavailable to allow for a clearer pictureof the challenges confrontingMoroccan women

The countryrsquos 2008 MDG reportidentified a number of urgent needsincluding illiteracy as well as maternaland child mortality At the current rateaccording to the dataMorocco willonly reach its national literacy target by2040 and povertymainly ruralpresents a major obstacle for theattainment of the other MDGs

The government has succeeded inlowering overall poverty rates with thenumber of poor falling to 28 million in2007 representing 9 percent of thepopulation and a drop from 153percent in 2001The proportion ofpeople suffering from hunger has alsoshown progress falling to 1 percent in2007 from 18 percent in 2003Unemployment still presents achallenge at 9 percent but is downfrom more troublesome double-digitlevels in recent years

Focusing on education as a nationalpriority the government launched itsemergency education program andgains are being made Net enrolment atthe primary level has risen to 935percent according to the latest MDGreport up from 524 percent For girlsliving in rural areas the rate is lowerat 877 percent but thatrsquos still sharplyup from 225 percent in 1990Youthliteracy has also been rising from71 percent to 84 percent for males andfrom 485 percent to 675 percent forfemales

While some progress has beenmade in the area of gendermoreneeds to be done to achieve parity ineducation and wagesWomenrsquos partici-pation in Parliament and in decision-making processes remains modest at105 percent in 2007The governmentis taking steps to address the challengeby enacting legislation including theFamily Code in 2003 the national codein 2006 and ratifying CEDAWmorerecently which all aim to help improvethe legal status of women

The Family Code is helping to putMoroccan women on equal footingwith regard to marriage and childrenIt has increased the minimum age ofmarriage for women to 18 allowed fordivorce proceedings to be initiated bywomen and addressed the issues ofproperty sharing and inheritance rights

In the health sectorMorocco isfacing difficulty in lowering levels ofchild and maternal mortality From1992 to 2004 the mortality rate forchildren under five did drop from 76percent to 47 percent ndash but is still farfrom the target of 28 percent by 2015Some progress has been made due toincreased immunization coverage thepromotion of breastfeeding and effortsto reduce nutritional deficiencies

The countryrsquos maternal mortality ratealso improved from 332 deaths per100000 live births in 1991 down to227 deaths per 100000 live births in2003 but Morocco is still far from its2015 target of 83 maternal deaths per100000 live birthsMoroccorsquos incidenceof maternal mortality remains thehighest in North Africa In response anambitious maternal and child healthstrategy has been put in place withinternational support

The HIV prevalence rate remainslow in Morocco at 008 percent in2007 But data collection is limited andrecent estimates show the number ofpeople living with HIV has risen from14500 in 2003 to 22300 in late 2007

Constraints and RisksThere is a national consensus that thegovernment inherited serious socialdeficits from previous decades whichcombined with inefficient policies keptit from bridging economic and socialgaps especially in rural areas where 40percent of the population livesThe netresult has been that Morocco is still amiddle income country with HDIindicators closer to that of Sub-SaharanAfrica especially in indicators related toeducation and maternal mortality

Moroccorsquos efforts towards the MDGshave also been constrained by a lack ofreliable and consistent data for MDGmonitoring and by capacity limitationsat the local level in the delivery ofbasic services

Climate change is also seen aspresenting a risk to MDG attainmentMoroccorsquos rural population isdependent on rain-fed agriculture fortheir livelihoods and poverty levelshave been affected by drought andrainfall levels in the past


MOZAMBIQUE

Mozambiquersquos recovery followingnearly three decades of civil war hasbeen impressive and the country nowserves as a prime example of howimprovements in economic and socialconditions can be triggered by new-found peace and stabilityMoreoverthe recovery process has been acceler-ated by public and private investmentsin governance institutions ruralinfrastructure and basic social servicesputting the country on track formeeting several of the MDGs

The countryrsquos economic growth hasaveraged 75 percent since 1993compared to 38 percent for sub-Saharan Africa But the progress startedfrom a very low base and Mozambiqueremains one of the worldrsquos poorestcountries ranking 175 out of 179on the Human Development Indexin 2008

According to MDG reportingpoverty incidence dropped from69 percent in 199697 to 54 percentin 200203 and is expected to declineto 45 percent in 2009The countryrsquosprogress in reducing poverty suggeststhat it is on track to meet the target of40 percent by 2015 In rural areas thedrop in poverty levels to 55 percentfollows efforts to increase the availabil-ity of land for cultivation diversificationof crops and shifts into small-scalecommercial farming for cash cropsunder contracting arrangements withagro-processing and export firms

Mozambique has made gains ineducation and in improving access toprimary education for girls After theend of hostilities school enrolmentbegan climbing steadily the netenrolment ratio more than doubled to96 percent in 2007 compared with1997with girl enrolment rising to93 percent

In the area of gender the propor-tion of women in Parliament is372 percent which is above the one-third target set by the Southern AfricanDevelopment Community (SADC)About one in four cabinet ministersthe prime minister and almost onethird of vice-ministers are women

The child mortality rate droppedfrom 147 to 124 per 1000 live birthsfrom 1997 to 2003 and the countryrsquosmaternal mortality rate one of thehighest in the world declined from1000 deaths per 100000 live births inthe 1990s to 408 deaths per 100000live births in 2003

HIV is regarded as one of the mostimportant threats to human develop-ment in Mozambique According toepidemiological surveys conducted atantenatal clinics HIV prevalence isestimated to have nearly doubled from82 percent to 16 percent between1998 and 2007

It is estimated that 40 percentof walk-in cases in hospitals and60 percent of paediatric cases are aconsequence of malariaThe incidenceof malaria has been falling howevercorrelated with preventive measuressuch as intra-domicile spraying andimprovements in diagnosis andtreatment

The government has taken steps tomainstream the environment into itsnational development frameworks Itsapproval of the Environmental Strategyfor Sustainable Development andlegislation for land use planning pointto progress in integrating sustainabilityprinciples into national policies

The proportion of the populationwith access to safe water has increasedfrom 37 percent in 2001 to 49 percentin 2007 putting Mozambique withinreach of achieving the national targetA decentralisation programmesupported by the government isspeeding the rehabilitation andconstruction of water systemsespecially in rural areas where the needfor improving safe water access is great

Constraints and RisksWhile several indicators onMozambiquersquos progress are encourag-ing they also mask great differencesaccording to sex age and geographyThe poverty headcount is twice as highin some regions and school enrolmentvaries widely among provinces asdoes access to improved sanitationAnd in the area of gender equality thedisparities can be striking about 69percent of women are illiteratecompared to 37 percent of men

Other challenges also risk affectingMozambiquersquos progress including itsrelatively new and fragile democracycapacity constraints high unemploy-ment and jobless growth and ineffi-ciencies in data collection and monitor-ing in such areas as gender theenvironment sustainability and HIV

National Programmes

Improving Education The govern-ment has introduced measures toabolish fees for primary school andfor offering capitation grants tocover such expenses as learningmaterials and to upgrading schoolinfrastructure

Access to HIV and AIDS servicesAntiretroviral Therapy coverageexpanded rapidly from 2005 to2007 from 32 to 150 ndash withcounseling and testing units alsomore than doubling by 2007

lsquoWaiting housesrsquo for pregnantwomen The government isinvesting in lsquowaiting housesrsquo forpregnant women who have beenidentified to be at high risk Seventy-five percent of Mozambiquersquos 128districts now have facilities to assistand monitor pregnant womendeemed to be at high risk


NEPAL

A low-incomemountainous countrylandlocked between India and ChinaNepal emerged recently from a decade-long civil conflict that added to thechallenge of promoting developmentin the many hard-to-reach communi-ties that make up the fabric of thismulti-ethnic society With the end ofcivil hostilities Nepal is aiming toaccelerate economic growth reducepoverty and realize human develop-ment and is pursuing the peacedividends of reform and stability

Since 2003 GDP growth hasaveraged around 3 percent but withlower than anticipated growth in theimportant agriculture and manufactur-ing sectors Still the country has beenable to make progress towards severalMDG targets although with pronouncedlevels of inequality in rural and urbanregions and among ethnic groups

Recent data indicates that Nepalhas succeeded in lowering povertyratesThe proportion of people livingbelow the poverty line declined from42 percent in 1996 to 31 percent in 2004driven in large part by an exponentialrise in worker remittances from abroadGains have also been made in gender-parity in education the under five andinfant mortality rates and in increasingimmunization coverage

The government has made progressin reducing hunger but malnutrition istaking a toll and remains a challengeAnd although the percentage ofunderweight children aged 6-59months has declined it is still unaccept-ably high at 39 percent Food shortagesremain a problem for the countryrsquoshilly areas due to poor or non-existentroads harsh weather and lack ofalternative food options

Steady progress has been made inachieving universal primary educationThe primary school net enrolment rateincreased from 64 percent in 1990 to89 percent in 2007with the literacyrate for children over six years of ageimproving to 63 percent in 2007

But the extension of basic servicesincluding education has been unevenespecially among indigenous groupsand in remote rural areas whereenrolment rates remain low

Nepal has seen a slow but steadyrise in girlsrsquo enrolment with the gendergap narrowing at the primary andsecondary levels but not in highereducationThe proportion of literatewomen to men 15-24 years old hasincreased but is still far from nearingparity rising from 048 in 1990 to 073in 2005

The government has remainedchallenged in improving opportunitiesfor women with most engaged ininformal subsistence and non-wageactivities Only 127 percent of jobs inNepalrsquos administrative service are held bywomenTo help address the imbalancethe government has constituted theNational Womenrsquos Commission toprotect womenrsquos rights and enhancetheir participation in society

In the health sector the infantmortality rate declined by about55 percent to 48 per 1000 live births in2007 from 108 in 1990 the maternalmortality rate which stood at 850per 100000 live births in 1990also declined to 281 per 100000 livebirths in 2007 as the percentage ofdeliveries attended by health careproviders increased

One area where Nepal has madenotable progress is in the provision ofsafe drinking water as 89 percent of thepopulation has access to improvedwater sources sanitation coverage hasalso increased markedly from 6 percentin 1990 to 41 percent in 2007

Nepal has a history of promotinglocal community-based responses todevelopment in remote hard to reachareasThis is evident in the environ-ment sector where the number ofCommunity Forestry User Groups hasgrown from 12000 in 2002 to 14500 in2007Their work at the local level hasled to an increase in the amount ofmuch-needed forest cover in Nepalwhich has risen in recent years to morethan 39 percent up from 29 percentin 1990

Constraints and RisksNepal faces the dual challenges ofaccelerating domestic growth andsharing its benefits more broadlyacross a multi-ethnic and diversepopulation in order to bridge glaringinequalities in incomes and in accessto basic services including healthand education

In 2007 important remittancesapproached a high of 25 percent ofGDPWhile of great benefit to thecountry Nepal could also be vulnerableto the affects of a reversal due to theglobal economic downturn whichcould threaten livelihoods andfuel unrest

Regarding climate change ananalysis of Nepalrsquos water resources bythe OECD identifies two potentialcritical impacts Glacial Lake OutbreakFlooding and variability of river runoffBoth are of serious concern as Nepalis already prone to flood disastersparticularly in the Terai and relieson hydropower as an importantenergy source

The Government is in the process ofdeveloping its next three-year NationalDevelopment Strategywhich aims toattain annual economic growth of55 percent and reduce the povertyrate to 24 percent It plans to continuesupporting efforts aimed at inclusiveand broad-based growth effectivegovernance and delivery of basic socialservices while increasing investmentsin physical infrastructure and employ-ment for the poor Specific targets alsoinclude improving the national literacyrate to 60 percent and connecting all75 districts to the national road network


SENEGAL

Despite recording a decade of steadygrowth from 1995 to 2005with anaverage GDP of 53 percent Senegalrsquoseconomic performance remains muchlower than the 7 percent believednecessary to cut poverty in half by2015 Currently only the targetspertaining to gender parity ineducation HIV and access to safedrinking water are consideredpotentially attainable with sustainednational efforts

In 2005 506 percent of Senegaleselived in poverty compared to571 percent in 2001 In rural areaswhere women make up the majority ofthe population the poverty rate was556 percent in 2005 Inadequateinfrastructure and basic servicesoutside urban areas have led toinequalities in access to health andeducation And in terms of electrifica-tion for example urban areas benefitfrom 72 percent coverage comparedwith 16 percent in rural communities

Malnutrition remains an importantchallenge in Senegal Eighty-fourpercent of children under five and61 percent of women suffer fromanemia which can be linked to poornutritionThe government hasintroduced a number of interventionsto respond to this challenge bypromoting breastfeeding and increas-ing daily caloric intake in childrenFrom 1992 to 2005 the incidence ofunderweight children dropped from20 percent to 17 percent against atarget of 3 percent by 2015

In the education sector the govern-ment has been constructing moreschools and colleges Primary schoolenrolment was estimated at 86 percentin 2007 up from 83 percent in2006 and against a target of 90percent in 2015

In the area of gender Senegal hasbeen challenged in improving thestatus of womenwho make up approx-imately 52 percent of the populationand constitute the least educated andmost vulnerable group in societyWomen account for only 144 percentof political party members and areunder-represented in positions ofauthority and in decision-makingbodies in 2007 only seven out of39 government ministers were women

Raising gender parity levels inprimary education is one area showinggood progress as the gender parityindex improved from 093 in 2000 to107 in 2007 although it decreases athigher grade levels

A health concern for the govern-ment is the high under-five mortalityrate which stood at 121 per 1000 in2005The governmentrsquos response hasincluded expanding immunizationcoverage and introducing improve-ments through the National MedicalDevelopment Plan But Senegalrsquos healthsystem suffers from weaknesses infinancial and human resources andfrom a rural-urban imbalance of healthprofessionals ndash many of who choose tolive and work in Dakar

Controlling the spread of HIV is onearea where Senegal has the potential ofmeeting its target as the countryachieved a low prevalence rate of 07percent in 2005 But challenges remainin expanding access to treatmentsurveillance and eliminating discrimi-nation against people living with HIV

Concerning malaria in spite of allefforts it remains the principal causeof mortality in Senegal especiallyamong pregnant women The malariamortality rate nationwide is estimatedat 1817 percentHowever its prevalencerate fell from 407 percent in 2000 to85 percent in 2005 showing signsof improvementThe prevalence rateof tuberculosis also dropped from85 percent to 67 percent during thesame period

In the area of the environment thegovernment is making efforts to meetits 2015 targets but is lagging Itreforested 33975 hectares of land in2005 and 43185 hectares in 2007against a target of 45000 hectares peryear needed to compensate for the rateof forest degradation

The government also has a strategyfor conserving the countryrsquos biodiver-sity and is working towards designating12 percent of national lands asprotected areas It is establishing fivenew Protected Marine Areas and19 Natural Community Reserves withparticipation from local communitygroups and increased the coverage ofprotected land from 8 to11 percent ofnational territory It is also creating abiosphere reserve at the Niokolo-Badiarcomplex a world heritage site

Constraints and RisksSeveral constraints are correlated withthe costly toll of malaria in Senegalincluding an inadequate diagnosisand treatment of malaria cases in thehealth sector the limited use of treatedmosquito nets a low level of communityparticipation in prevention efforts andweaknesses in epidemiologic monitoring

Similarly in the area of controllinghunger and malnutrition progress hasbeen affected by a lack of coordinationof ongoing national health initiativesand programmes

The UN has identified several keydevelopment challenges in Senegalthat have affected the countryrsquosprogress towards the MDGs the fightagainst hunger and poverty and theneed to improve wealth creationaccess to quality social services thepromotion of the right to a sustainableenvironment good governance andthe promotion of partnership fordevelopment Inadequate capacitylevels in the public sector have alsobeen cited as a weakness


SIERRA LEONE

Sierra Leone is among the worldrsquospoorest countries and ranks last out of179 countries on the HumanDevelopment Index Since the end of itscivil war in 2002 Sierra Leone has mademacroeconomic progress GDPaveraged 7 percent between 2005 and2007 fueled by broad-based economicreforms and recovery in the agriculturemining construction and servicessectors

But despite recent progress SierraLeone faces enormous developmentchallenges About two-thirds of thepopulation lives below the poverty line70 percent of youth are unemployedand 53 percent are illiterate

MDG targets considered difficult tobe met include eradicating povertyreducing child mortality improvingmaternal health and developingpartnerships for development Goalslikely to be met with special effortsinclude achieving universal primaryeducation promoting gender equalityand ensuring environmental sustain-ability Only one Goal is consideredlikely to be met with sustained effortsMDG 6

Recent data shows that whilepoverty is widespread a higherincidence is found in rural areas ndash79 percent compared to 47 percent incities ndash where the majority relies onsubsistence agriculture Regionalinequalities and disparities are alsoevident with the countryrsquos easternregion having a greater incidenceof poverty and the western regionthe lowest

In the education sector SierraLeone is working to improve educationquality at all levels It passed theEducation Act in 2004which requiresall children to complete basiceducation and earmarked 20 percentof the annual budget in 2006 to thesectorThe net enrolment ratio forprimary school increased from 42percent in 1990 to 69 percent in 2005

Primary school completion rates alsorose to 808 percent in 2008 and thegirl-boy ratio at the primary level stoodat 111 in 2007 Government measuresincluding a tuition-free policy inprimary education and prioritizingteacher training appear to have helped

In the area of gender inequalitiesare present at all levels of societywomen constitute just 145 percent ofseats in Parliament about the samelevel in cabinet positions and 96 percentof top civil service postsThe govern-ment plans several measures to helpraise the status of women and improvetheir opportunities including settingup an independent gender commissionto promote gender equitable develop-ment and taking steps to ensureeffective gender mainstreaming andintroducing a temporary affirmativeaction plan that stipulates a 30 percentquota for women in elective andappointed offices

The country faces some of itssteepest challenges in the healthsector Sierra Leone has the worst infantand under-five mortality indicatorsand has among the highest maternalmortality rates in the worldmalnutri-tion remains a major cause of infantmortality and accounts for about 46percent of under-five deaths

But some progress is being madeChildhood immunization has shownimpressive signs of improvement andabout 15 million insecticide-treatedbed nets were distributed to childrenunder-five and pregnant women in2006 ndash and data shows the nets arebeing used Still malaria remains themost common cause of illness anddeath in the country HIV prevalencerates rose from 09 percent in 2002 to153 percent in 2005 but have leveledoff recently

In the area of the environmentthe country will require special effortsto reach its MDG targets Sierra Leonehas suffered severe environmentaldegradation due to mining deforesta-tion over-exploitation of the marineenvironment and pollution fromland-based activities

Constraints and RisksInternational aid is a critical part of theSierra Leonean economy accountingfor approximately 17 percent of GDP Alack of clear structures for aid coordina-tion has led to challenges and in somecases to programming bottlenecks Alack of aid predictability and of clearlydefined multi-year commitments is alsoa risk to MDG programming and hasmade it difficult for the government toundertake development planning forthe medium and long-term

While the full impact of the globaleconomic crisis on Sierra Leone is notyet known the country is at risk for anumber of reasonsMinerals madeup 89 percent of its exports in 2007and the 2008 fourth quarter drop incommodity metal prices by 37 percentwill impact its foreign exchangeearningsThe countryrsquos diamondsector which provides up to 300000jobs is virtually at a standstill InSierra Leonewhere the source ofconflict can be traced to developmentfailures whose root causes are still farfrom being fully addressed any haltor reversal in economic recovery canconstitute a serious threat to peaceand stability

To help improve progress towardsits national targets the government isstrengthening MDG programmingthrough its Agenda for Changewhichforms the basis of the countryrsquosmedium term Second PovertyReduction Strategy It focuses on fourpriorities providing a reliable powersupply increasing agricultural produc-tivity developing a national transporta-tion network to facilitate investmentand economic activity and ensuringsustainable human development byimproving basic social services


SYRIA

Syria is a lower middle-income countrythat has traditionally relied on oilexports and agriculture for governmentrevenue and employment It hasbenefited from moderate growth inrecent years which averaged above4 percent from 2003 to 2007

Widespread poverty and pervasiveunemployment remain challengesfor the government About a third ofSyriarsquos population is affected bypoverty and almost 24 million peopleor 123 percent of the population livein extreme poverty ndash with much higherconcentrations in rural areas A highunemployment rate of 191 percentamong youth aged 15-24 and analarmingly high rate of 49 percentamong young females furthercompounds the poverty challengein Syria

Reducing hunger is another areawhere the country lags behindWhilethe prevalence of underweight childrenunder five declined from 12 percent in1993 to 97 percent in 2006 the rate ofimprovement is not sufficient to meetthe MDG target by 2015 And reflectiveof Syriarsquos sharp regional and urban-ruraldisparities the prevalence of under-weight children is higher in the countryrsquoseastern and central regions relative tothe coastal and northern areas

In the education sector the rate ofnet enrolment at the primary leveldecreased from about 954 percent in1990 to 92 percent in 2007 fallingbehind in efforts to meet the target ofuniversal enrolment However illiteracyamong youth aged 15-24 has improvedand dropped recently to 55 percentsurpassing Syriarsquos 6 percent target

Progress has also been achieved inraising gender parity levels at bothbasic and secondary levels Butchallenges in other areas of genderequality persist in 2007 women onlyheld 30 of 250 seats in Parliament

Syria has been reducing child andinfant mortality rates which haveimproved considerably since the early1990s putting the country on track formeeting its targets and similarprogress has been made in loweringmaternal mortality rates

The country has been fortunate inhaving one of the lowest reportedprevalence rates of HIV in the worldwith a total of 552 HIV cases reportedfrom 1987 to 2008malaria is expectedto be fully eradicated

Insufficient data and monitoringhave made it difficult to gauge theprogress of indicators relating toadequate sanitation access Still indica-tions are that Syria will not meet thistarget in six years as the governmentremains challenged in improvingsanitation systems in rural areas whereonly 445 percent of people hadadequate sanitation in 2006 But thecountry has made progress inproviding safe drinking water and is ontrack for meeting this target

Working with its internationalfinancial partners Syria has lowered thesize of its external debt by more than15 percent from 2004 to 2007 as aresult of the governmentrsquos prudentexternal debt management policy

Constraints and RisksApart from the need to tackle wideregional disparities in poverty andbasic social services the governmentfaces a number of critical issues thataffect MDG progress including the lackof adequate institutional capacitiesparticularly with regards to delivery ofpublic services persistent highunemployment for youth inadequatedata monitoring systems increasingwater scarcity and the need to bettermanage the impact of Iraqi refugees onthe countryrsquos social and economicresource base

Also of consequence will be Syriarsquosability to mitigate the negative fiscaleffects expected to result from itsgrowing energy consumption demandand dwindling oil reserves and itssuccess in diversifying its economytowards sectors that have highpotential for employment generation

Syriarsquos Tenth National Five Year Planhas prioritized eradicating povertyraising educational levels improvingbasic infrastructure and social servicesand securing financial resources for thepoor Among the initiatives that targetthe MDGs are the National Social AidFund a pension and health insurancescheme to strengthen the countryrsquossocial safety net system and theWomenrsquos Empowerment and PovertyAlleviation Programme whichoffers women living in poor areas acomprehensive package of social andfinancial services

In addition the Rural CommunityDevelopment Programme at Jabal al-Hoss is providing support to 40 villagesin one of Syriarsquos poorest regions It hasearned recognition for its work inimproving income-earning and micro-credit opportunities basic health andsocial services and for increasing theparticipation of women in localdecision-making processes


TAJIKISTAN

Poverty in Tajikistan increased after thecountryrsquos independence and costly civilwar Only after the peace accord in1997 did the country mobilize sufficientdevelopment efforts that resulted inthe resumption of economic growthlower poverty rates and the gradualimprovement of social conditions

Driven by strong economicperformance since the late 1990spoverty declined significantly from 87percent in 1999 to 409 percent in 2007And the level of extreme poverty washalved from 36 percent to 174 percentduring the same period thus makingthis MDG target already achievedPoverty reduction efforts were helpedby the countryrsquos economic develop-ment and social and political stabilityand by the flow of remittances that in2008 amounted to 58 percent of GDP

But Tajikistan has endured severalsetbacks including water energy andfood crises that were exacerbated bythe global economic downturnTheseevents made attainment of mosttargets seem increasingly unrealisticand gains already made will bejeapordized without effective anti-crisis measures

Food insecurity and poor nutritioncontinue to present an importantconcern According to recent data24 percent of the population experi-enced inadequate food consumptionin 2007The status of nutrition in thecountry has not improved and appearsto have worsenedwith child malnutri-tion widespread

Enrolment in primary and lowersecondary schools in Tajikistanincreased from 2000 to 2007 reaching995 percent for boys and 95 percentfor girls However the national MDG 2targets of universal enrolment areconsidered not achievable by 2015

Most children leave school at age 15having completed only basic educationcausing the enrolment rate to dropfrom 92 percent at age 15 to 34percent at 18 Enrolment rates inTajikistan are the lowest in the Europeand CIS regionMajor challenges existregarding the quality of educationincluding a lack of teachers outdatedlearning materials and poor schoolmaintenance

In the area of gender equal rightsare guaranteed by law and programmesare being implemented for genderequality however gender imbalancesin education and in political represen-tation persist Poverty continues toaffect women more than men and inrural communities female-headedhouseholds are among the poorestOne area where Tajikistan appearsto have met a gender target is inincreasing the proportion of womenemployed in the non-agriculturalsector which was 516 percentin 2003 against a 2015 target of50 percent

MDG targets in the health sectorare considered to be among the mostchallenging with the countryrsquos healthindicators continuing to be the lowestin the region reflecting Tajikistanrsquos highinfant under-five and maternalmortality rates However infant andchild mortality rates have begun toshow improvement in recent years andprogress for increasing the number of 1year-old children immunized againstmeasles appears on track

Tajikistan is unlikely to reach thetargets of halting the spread of malariatuberculosis and other diseasesincluding HIV by 2015 Progress onMDG 6 is affected by a lack of access toessential health care services andinadequate investment for diseasecontrol measuresThe country had aHIV prevalence rate of 018 per 1000people in 2008

Tajikistan has made little progressin ensuring environmental sustainabil-ity and in preventing the loss of naturalresources In one instance the absenceof reliable electricity supply has forcedrural inhabitants to turn to burningconventional biomass and fossil fuelsfor their energy needs which deterio-rates indoor air quality and has a negativeeffect on life in rural communities

In its global partnerships fordevelopment the country enjoyssupport from the internationalcommunity in the form of loans grantsand technical assistance From 1991 to2006 it received nearly US$2 billion inODA from approximately 80 interna-tional aid organizations

Constraints and RisksThe government recently undertook adetailed assessment of resourcesneeded for achieving the MDGs withsupport from UNDP and theMillennium Project It concluded that alarge resource gap exists and thatTajikistan would likely need to doublecurrent aid levels in order to meet theMDGs by 2015

The country is constrained by a lackof capacity for undertaking necessaryreforms investments and policymeasures needed to improve socialconditions and living standardsTheongoing economic crisis risks increas-ing poverty levels with reduceddemand for the countryrsquos main exportcommodities fewer jobs in Russia and adecline in remittances

Tajikistanrsquos remoteness andisolation has constrained its participa-tion in international markets and hasimpeded economic development in thepast Progress has been made inbuilding roads connecting Tajikistan toUzbekistan Kyrgyzstan and China thatwill promote better trade and regionalcooperationWith international tradeaccounting for more than half thecountryrsquos GDP the country is relying onimproved access to world markets tohelp underpin economic growth


TANZANIA

Tanzaniarsquos impressive growthaveraging 72 percent from 2001 to2007 has been underpinned bycomprehensive policy and structuralreforms effective macroeconomicmanagement and achievements ingovernance following the restorationof political pluralism and liberalism in1992 But while it has made notablegainsmeeting its national MDG targetsremain a challenge

Growth has not been pro-poor orbroad-based in Tanzania ndash povertydeclined by a meager 66 from 2000to 2007 About 33 percent of thepopulation lives below the basic-needspoverty line with women in both ruraland urban areas dependent on non-renewable energy with limited accessto financial resources and basic socialservices In Zanzibar the povertyincidence remains particularly highat 51 percent Unemployment remainsa critical issue and is high particularlyamong youth

The country remains challenged byregional and gender-based disparitiesand despite near parity in primaryschool enrolment girls and womenremain poorly represented at thesecondary and tertiary levels In thelegislature the government has takensteps to improve the participation ofwomenwith the number of womenParliament members increasing from21 percent in 2000 to 30 percentin 200607

Tanzania has made notable gainsin reducing infant mortality rateslargely attributable to measles vaccina-tion vitamin A supplementation andthe provision of insecticide treatedbed nets But maternal mortality ratesof 578 per 100000 live births remainhigh due to a shortage of skilled health

workers in rural areas a lack of adequatetransport to medical facilities a highprevalence of early pregnancy and alow awareness of the importance ofantenatal checkups Interventions toreduce the incidence of malariaincluding the distribution of treatedbed nets have paid off in bothmainland Tanzania and Zanzibar thelatter reporting a diagnosis rate of only08 percent in 200607

Curtailing the spread of HIVremains a top national priority for thegovernmentWith an overall prevalencerate of 74 percent the spread of HIVremains the single most impoverishingforce facing people and households inTanzania today and if not halted andreversed threatens not the achieve-ment of the countryrsquos MDGs

In the area of the environment thecountryrsquos rate of deforestation remainsquite high casting doubts on the fullachievement of the targets under MDG7Only 57 percent of rural householdshave access to improved water sourcesand about 90 percent have access toimproved sanitation compared to985 percent in urban areas

National ProgrammesThe MDGs have been integrated intoTanzaniarsquos National Strategies forGrowth and Poverty Reduction and arethe focus of several highly prioritizednational programmes across theagriculture health and educationsectors Achievement of universalprimary education under thePrimary Education DevelopmentProgramme is now almost certainwith enrolment rates having jumpedfrom 59 to 97 percent in eight yearsHealth initiatives working to reduceinfant mortality and expand vaccina-tion rates of children against measlesare also showing positive results

Strengthening data collection forimproved MDG monitoring has alsobeen an area of focus for the govern-ment It recently established a nationalmonitoring system which includes aten year National Survey Plan andresource commitments to ensure year-by-year survey implementation andanalysis Tanzania also boasts a strongnetwork of civil society organizationswho are working for the achievementof the MDGs in targeted initiativesacross the countryThey are particularlyactive in the health sector respondingto the challenges posed by HIVmalariaand maternal health-related diseases

Constraints and RisksKey challenges include inadequateinstitutional capacities needed to carryout effective MDG programming anddelivery of basic services and the needto improve linkages between nationaland local data collection systems foreffective monitoring Corruption alsoremains a serious issue and is perceivedas a major constraint to development

An additional challenge for thegovernment remains the need to makegrowth pro-poor and equitable so thatthe dividends of high growth can beshared across all levels of Tanzaniansociety Re-orienting developmentpolicy with a focus on rural develop-ment along with supporting keyservices and industrial sectors wouldbe positive steps in this direction


TIMOR-LESTE

Resource rich in oil reserves Timor-Leste nonetheless remains a LeastDeveloped Country with non-oil GDPper capita of US$364More than 80percent of the population relies onsubsistence farming although manyalso receive overseas remittances andfinancial support from the governmentFollowing the end of the political crisisin 2006 the country entered a post-conflict phase the large UN peace-keeping presence and numeroustechnical assistance programmes attestto the capacity constraints faced byTimor-Leste

Despite a surge in petroleumrevenues in recent years the countryhas been unable to channel sufficientresources for the MDGs or to counterthe effects of sharp increases in foodprices that last year contributed to arise in inflation of 10 percent As a latecomer to the MDGs and in spite ofprogress in some areas Timor-Leste isoff track to achieve most of the goals

From 2001 to 2007 the numberof people living below the nationalpoverty line estimated at $088 per dayincreased from 36 percent to includenearly half the population Also disturb-ing about 45 percent of children underfive are underweightwith the prevalencemore pervasive in urban areas

In the education sector the netenrolment ratio at the primary levelincreased from 65 percent in 1999 to78 percent in 2004 before droppingback to 63 percent in 2007 possiblydue to the countryrsquos 2006 politicalcrisis Enrolment is slightly higher inurban than in rural areas with moregirls enroling than boysThe literacyrate of young people aged 15-24jumped from 50 percent in 2001 to851 percent in 2007 thought mainlyto be the result of adult literacycampaignsWhile the literacy gapbetween urban and rural areas hasnarrowed from 2004 to 2007 achallenge remains to further reduceurban-rural and gender imbalances

Since there is little or no informa-tion on the sectors in which women areengaged it is a challenge to assesswhether genuine empowerment hastaken placeThe share of women innon-agricultural employment increasedonly slightly from 35 percent in 2001 to36 percent in 2007while the propor-tion of seats held by women inParliament in 2007 was 28 percent lessthan the minimum 30 percent baseline

The under-five mortality rates alsoremain troublesome rising to 130 per1000 live births in 2004 and infantmortality rates also worsened duringthat time But in a sign of progress 74percent of one year old children wereimmunized against measles last yearcompared to 50 percent in 2001Greater investment in public healthand improved access to services ndashalong with public awarenesscampaigns aimed at rural populations ndashare needed to improve Timor-Lestersquoshealth indicators

And despite improvements in thetreatment and prevention of malariaand greater usage of treated mosquitonetsmalaria along with dengue andTB still pose significant health risksData limitations have presented achallenge to effective MDG monitoringin the health sectorThe most recentdata available on maternal mortality forexample is from 2000 and there is nosystematic collection of data on HIVAnother key constraint has been thelack of capacity of national stakehold-ers to analyse and use available data tomake informed policy decisions

Falling far behind the nationalaverages is Oecusse province one ofthe poorest and most marginalizedprovinces in the countryThe govern-ment is targeting assistance to thespecial needs of the poor in Oecussewith the support of its developmentpartners including UNDP

Constraints and RisksThe countryrsquos heavy dependence on oilrevenues exposes it to the volatilecommodity prices in internationalmarkets Although the country engagesin coffee and agricultural productionthe economy remains largely undiversi-fied and vulnerable

Unemployment particularly amongyouth is high and poses a majorchallenge to MDG achievement Someestimates suggest that only 400 jobsare created annually compared tonearly 15000 people who enter thelabor market In Dili the countryrsquoscapital 58 percent of youth aged15-19 are unemployed

Economic and social strife can alsothreaten important gains made inpeace and stability adding additionalurgency to achieving the MDG agendaThe government faces a severecapacity gap in economic and socialmanagement constraining policydesign and implementation

National ProgrammesKey government efforts for the MDGsinclude a cash payment scheme forinternally displaced persons designedto help reintegrate them back into theircommunities and a conditional cashtransfer programme targeting vulnera-ble womenwidows and singlemothers In the Oecussi province localdevelopment activities are helping toreduce poverty by creating incomeearning opportunities and credit andsavings schemes An effort is alsounderway to rehabilitate bridgesalong the important Viqueque-Lospalos road in order to improveaccess to markets that are vital forsmall agricultural enterprises


TOGO

Togorsquos small economy is heavilydependent on agriculture whichemploys about two-thirds of thecountryrsquos workforce Since 2000 thecountryrsquos efforts towards the MDGshave taken place in the face of achallenging socio-economic environ-ment that until 2006 included thesuspension of development coopera-tion with most of its partners and areduction in public investmentsrequired for achieving the MDGsTogo is also challenged by loweconomic growth difficult livingconditions and a young populationwhere 44 percent is under the age of15 Its Human Development Index hasalmost stagnatedmoving from 0496in 1990 to 0512 fifteen years later

Togo will probably only be able toreach the Goals related to universalprimary education and combating HIVmalaria and other diseases Othertargets such as food self-sufficiency andgender equality in primary educationcould be reached with sustained efforts

In 2006more than 61 percent ofTogolese lived below the poverty linedropping from 72 percent in 1990Theincidence of poverty is particularly highin rural communities where threehouseholds out of four are poorcompared to two out of five in urbanareas Some regions show extremelyhigh poverty rates such as Savanes(905 percent) Central (777 percent)and Kara (75 percent) Moreoverpoverty is strongly correlated tomalnourishment which affects morethan 64 percent of poor Togolese

Togorsquos school system suffered froma substantial shrinkage in publicfunding over the last decade whichcontributed to deterioration ineducation indicators and a drop inprimary school enrolment But renewedefforts have boosted net primaryschool enrolment from 67 percent in1990 to 734 percent in 2006 puttingthe country on track according to thecountryrsquos National Human DevelopmentReport for meeting the targetof universal primary enrolment

The government has also drafted aneducation action plan to improve thesector with support from donors

Regarding gender equality targetsTogo has lacked adequate resources tosupport meaningful progress In theeducation sector only the parity targetin primary education is expected to bemet by 2015 But a capacity buildingprogramme on gender supported byUNDP is underway and a nationalaction plan for gender equality andequity has been drafted

Togo has undertaken initiativesto improve reproductive health andnutrition still the worsening economicsituation and low expenditures forhealthcare have led to a shortage oftrained personnel and equipment foreffective health delivery In the area ofreducingmaternal mortality rates remainhighwith large numbers of childbirthsunattended by health professionals

With support from its developmentpartners the government has adoptedmeasures to combat the spread of HIVNational efforts have included theprovision of needed drugs and preven-tion programmes targeting sex workersand mother to child transmissionTheHIV prevalence rate among those aged15-49 has been cut by almost half from1990 to 2008 ndash from 6 percent to 32percent and have put Togo on trackto achieve MDG 6

Togo has enacted an action planfor the environment that focuses ongoals in forestry climate changepollution sanitation and desertificationbut an analysis of economic and socialdevelopment plans suggests thatenvironmental considerations haveonly been partially taken into accountRural populations seeking income-earning opportunities continue tohave an impact on dwindlingforestry resources

Constraints and RisksTogorsquos MDG efforts have been affectedby capacity constraints in the publicand private sector and in civil societyThe government has also beenhampered by inadequate data collec-tion and monitoring and with insuffi-cient resources for generating reliableand disaggregated statistics Thecountryrsquos most recent populationcensus was taken in 1981 and the lastdemographic health survey wasconducted in 1998 Poverty statisticsare more recent due to the 2006QUIBB and MICS surveys that werefunded by development partnersTo address this a national statisticsdevelopment strategy and action planwas drafted in 2008 and is awaitingimplementation

In addition after years of quasisuspension the level of externalassistance to Togo is still very limitedODA is estimated at roughly US$11 perpersonmuch lower than earlier levelsand below the average for othercountries in the sub-region

A number of key programmesaddress MDG obstacles includingcapacity limitations at the local levelOne effort is the Millennium Communeswhich is working to improve livelihoodsand conditions of poor people in ruralareas with a special focus on gender Itis supporting microfinance smallentrepreneurship and investments inlocal infrastructure including forschools roads water supply systemsand energy Likewise the IntegratedRural Development Programme forthe Savanes (PDRIS) is targetingwomen in the poor eastern region itis helping to improve their livelihoodsand conditions through agri-businessincome-generating activities and byincreasing their involvement in villagedevelopment committees


VANUATU

Vanuatu a small island developingstate made up of 80 islands hasenjoyed strong growth thatrsquos averaged56 percent a year since 2003makingits economy one of the fastest growingin the Pacific regionThe expansion hasbeen broad-based with growth intrade tourism construction and higherconsumption demand

Even soVanuatu remains one offive least developed countries in thePacific and had a Human DevelopmentIndex of 0640 in 2004

The government has made progressin cutting poverty which dropped from40 percent in 1998 to below 16 percentin 2008 Extreme poverty and hungerare not major issues in the island-statedue to a robust agricultural sector andfamily solidarity Poverty here is definedmore in terms of a lack of opportunityto access the labor market health andeducation services and life opportunities

Unlike some developing countriespoverty in Vanuatu is more of an urbanphenomenon and affects 33 percent ofpeople in Port Vila the capitalThere aregrowing income inequalities betweenrural and urban areas causing an urbandrift of young migrant workers seekinghigher wages in cities but alsocontributing to urban poverty levels

The net enrolment ratio in primaryschool increased from 78 percent in1999 to 93 percent in 2004 but theproportion of pupils starting gradeone who reach the last grade ofprimary school declined from 91percent in 2000 to 72 percent in 2004Literacy among 15-24 year oldsincreased dramatically from 34 percentin 1989 to 86 percent in 1999

The education sector receivesaround 23 percent of the total govern-ment budget and receives funding alsofrom development partners but despitegenerous support and increasedresources key targets have not beenmet and significant urban and ruraldisparities exist

Achieving education targets inVanuatu is therefore unlikely A strategyto achieve bi-lingual education needsto be addressed as do the challenges

of improving school completion ratesand teacher competence

With donor support the govern-ment is implementing a number ofnational programmes to scale upprogress in the education sector theseinclude interventions aimed atimproving teacher training and schoolcurriculums strengthening vocationalskills for rural and provincial develop-ment upgrading school infrastructureand training preschool coordinators insix provinces

In the area of gender the ratioof boys to girls in all school levelsincreased from 1991 to 2007 and thereis no significant difference in literacybetween men and womenThe share ofwomen working in non-agriculturalsectors increased from 23 percent in1989 to 40 percent in 1999 but jobs forwomen tend to be concentrated intraditional sectors including domesticwork and teaching In ParliamentVanuatu is far from the target of havingat least 30 percent representation bywomenwho filled only 38 percent ofParliament seats last year

The country is also challenged inthe health sector infant mortality ratesdeclined from 45 percent in 1989 to27 percent in 1999 but rose back to31 percent in 2008 and immunizationrates of one year olds against measlesremains below 80 percent

Despite some improvementsmaternal health remains a concern inVanuatuThe 2005 Vanuatu MDGReport indicates that there is noreliable data to calculate the maternalmortality ratio and that an estimated92 percent of births occur with noskilled attendants presentThe lowsocial and economic status of girls andwomen is seen as limiting access toproper health care and to familyplanning services

In 2000Vanuatu recorded a zeroprevalence rate for HIV among thoseaged 15-24 however the proportion ofthat age group with comprehensiveand correct knowledge of HIV declinedfrom 28 percent in 1999 to 258 in2007The incidences of malaria andtuberculosis are declining

In the environment sector keyconcerns including the sustainablemanagement of fisheries waterresources and terrestrial and marineprotected areas are identified in theEnvironmental Management andConservation Act of 2002 Howeverimplementation of the legislation hasbeen slowed due to a lack of resourcesand challenges are mounting indeforestation coastal fisheriesbiodiversity and solid waste manage-ment the latter especially in andaround Port Vila due to urbanmigration and population pressures


Vanuatu has been one of the bestperforming Pacific economies havingbenefited from an increase in tourismand investment and from largenumbers of migrant workers findingemployment in New Zealand But theglobal economic downturn has madeit vulnerable to a drop in tourismrevenues and to a loss of overseas jobsand investment from neighboringNew Zealand and Australia

In the area of MDG monitoringthere is a need to strengthen thecountryrsquos statistical information systemto improve data collection in suchareas as health education and genderVanuatursquos most recent populationcensus was done 1999 and the next isplanned for this year

As an island-nation in the PacificVanuatu has immediate concernsregarding the threat of climate changegiven the social and economic impactsof tropical cyclones and the popula-tionrsquos dependence on rain fed agricul-ture and subsistence gardeningTheVanuatu National Adaptation Programof Action (NAPA) reveals that Vanuatu isamong Pacific countries that are mostvulnerable to the risks of climatechange and to sea-level rise NAPAis currently working to develop acountry-wide programme of adapta-tion activities for priority sectors aimedat helping to mitigate the effects ofclimate change and of extreme events


YEMEN

Despite advances on several develop-ment frontsYemen remains one ofthe worldrsquos poorest countries andranked 153 out of 177 on the HumanDevelopment IndexWith the possibleexception of meeting some universalprimary education targets the countryis off-track for achieving most MDGsby 2015

Yemenrsquos development efforts takeplace against a backdrop of risingunemployment and population growthdeclining oil reserves and limitedarable land and water suppliesImportant development wins are alsobeing threatened gains made inreducing income poverty from 1998 to2006 for example are at risk of beingreversed due to increases in foodprices a rise of unskilled labour andstagnant incomes for farm workers

In 2006 60 percent of Yemenrsquospopulation lived below the countryrsquosupper poverty line (equivalent to about$13 per day) a small decline from over65 percent in 1998 Progress has beeneven slower in the countryrsquos ruralareas where the rate dropped from67 percent to 64 percent during thesame period

The proportion of Yemenites livingbelow the food poverty line improvedat a somewhat faster pace falling to125 percent in 2006 from more than20 percent in 1998 But the persistentincreases in food prices are puttingthese hard-fought gains at risk andmalnutrition is worseningThe propor-tion of under-five children that areunderweight rose from 30 percent in1992 to 46 percent in 1998 andremained at that level through 2003

The government has placed anemphasis on improving primary schooleducation and trends have pointed toa rise in gross enrolment from 58percent in 199798 to 665 percent in200304 with adult literacy reaching 50percent in 2006 But the nationalaverages mask geographic and genderdisparities with boys and urbanchildren enjoying greater educationalopportunities and higher enrolmentrates Despite progress made in girlsrsquoeducation gross enrolment was only515 percent in 2003 and their ratio toboys in the first year of primaryeducation was 75 percent in 2002

While both under-five and infantmortality showed a clear downwardtrend from 1990 to 1997 the rate ofimprovement has since slowedmakingit a challenge to meet these targets insix years And maternal mortality whileimproving since 1990when itwasbelievedto be over 500 per 100000 live birthsfell to 365 per 100000 births in 2003 Itremains the leading cause of deathamong women of reproductive ageaccounting for 42 percent of all deaths

Data revealed an upsurge inmalaria from 1990 to 2000The numberof reported cases rose from 1263 per100000 in 1990 to 1532 in 2000 beforelater being reversed and droppingto 263 in 2006Yemen has also beenincreasing immunization coverageand has made gains curtailing measlesand polio

Yemenrsquos progress in increasing accessto improved drinking water sources hasbeen slowwith the proportion of thepopulation with potable drinking waterincreasing from 66 percent to 69percent from 1990 to 2000 Howeverthe percentage of the population withimproved sanitation increased at a fargreater rate ndash from 21 percent to88 percent during those years

Constraints and RisksLike in many developing countries thegovernment is challenged by largeregional disparities in the delivery ofbasic health and social services and inoverall poverty rates with extremepoverty relatively low in the urbancenters of Aden and Sanarsquoa and muchhigher in rural areas

The persistence of a high popula-tion growth rate that continues toexceed 3 percent is not expected todecline radically in the near future andrising unemployment in the face of ayouthful and growing populationfurther complicates MDG attainment

Yemenrsquos future development is alsothreatened by depletion of its waterresources if current rates of off-takecontinue and the country is prone todroughts and flash floods due to climatechange which can undermine agricul-ture and food production activities

The global economic crisis andfalling commodity prices also threaten toreduce the amount of revenue availableto the government for MDG program-ming as 70 percent of the nationalbudget is dependent on oil revenueswhich are expected to decline by 50percent or more in the next two years

National ProgrammesTo address pressing developmentchallenges the government includeda comprehensive set of goals in itsNational Strategic Vision 2025 bywhich time it aims to achieve middleincome statusYemen was selected asone of eight UN Millennium Projectpilot countries and the governmentled an MDG needs assessment processthat helped identify investmentrequirements Subsequently the ThirdNational Socio-economic DevelopmentPlan for Poverty Reduction (2005-2010)was formulated and aligned to theMDGs One outcome has been theprioritization of the health sectorwhere the country faces urgentchallenges in such areas as reducingunder-five and maternal mortality rates

ANNEXES

Annex 10Questionnaire and Reporting Format

Annex 11Global Millennium Development Goals with targets and indicators

Annex 12National Adaptation of MDG GoalsTargets and Indicators

Annex 21Years and Sources for Poverty and Gini Data

Annex 22 Common Safety Net Programmes

Annex 23Good Practices of Employment Creation in Developing Countries

Annex 31 Participatory Monitoring Tools

References


Since advisors will have about 5-7 days for eachcountry assessment it is recommended that Part Aof the questionnaire be completed (by the advisors)prior to the in-country mission and parts B C amp Dbe completed after consultations with stakeholders inthe country Stake-holders to be consulted shouldinclude government key civil societyorganizationsactors and development partners

ACurrent Status of MDGsProgress and Challenges

1) Using the latest MDGR (andor data) conduct agap analysis to identify which MDG targets areon-track and which are lagging behind

2) Highlight key issues that affect monitoring theMDGs including the availability of data(including sex disaggregated data) for establish-ing benchmarks and up-to-date assessments andthe tailoring of global targets to nationalcontexts

3) Review MDG progress at the sub-national levelwhere available What do the trends indicateabout the in-country differences

4) Identify key national development challenges andimplementation bottlenecks which mayundermine achievement of the MDGs (exconflict weak governance structures capacityconstraints) Refer to Common CountryAssessment (CCA)

5) Prepare a table reflecting the key programmesinitiatives of the UNDP CO across practices insupport of the MDGs Refer to CPAP

6) Have any of these initiatives had impact orachieved demonstrable outcomes with respect tothe MDGs If yes what indicators and methodsof measurement are used to determine impactRefer to CPAP Reviews and impact evaluations

7) Briefly describe such initiative(s) and the keyfactors that account for its success If this is notreflected in the CPAP Review please consultwith the CO

BPotential Risks to SustainingMDG Progress

8) How is the current global financialeconomiccrisis likely to impact MDG progress in thecountry Specifically have developmentpartners reduced their commitments fordevelopment finance How will the crisisimpact domestic revenues

9) Which Goals (targets) are most likely to beaffected by the crisis How

10) For countries in Special DevelopmentCircumstances (post-conflict crisis) are thereadditional specific factors which should bespecially noted

11) Is climate change a potential risk How will itlikely impact MDG progress and which are thekey sectors that will be affected

CNational Programmes in Supportof MDG Achievements

12) In light of the MDG gap analysis has thegovernment prioritized any of the Goals (targets)for specific attention by introducing replicatingandor scaling up programmes in areas such ashunger maternal mortality primary schoolenrolment etc If yes are these national priori-ties reflected in the PRSPs national plans orsector strategies Prepare a list of nationalprogrammes that have an MDG focus andindicate if and which development partners(including UNDP) support implementationof these programmes

13) Are there programmes involving civil society thatare effective in advocating for the MDGs andorspecific Goals

14) Are there any good practices in the country (withrespect to national programmes or donorsupported programmes) that have achievedimpact and have had demonstrable outcomeswith respect to MDG progress

15) What criteria were used to determine if this is agood practice

130

ANNEX 10QUESTIONNAIRE AND REPORTING FORMAT

DFuture Options for UNDP Assistancefor theMDGs

16) Given the MDG gap analysis and in light ofrecent global developments what are potentialentry points for programming UNDPs futureassistance to the government for the MDGs(ie should we promote job creation as a keyentry point for programming our assistance inlight of rising income poverty) For example inthe poverty practice this could include program-ming for employment creation ndash especially youthemployment hunger mitigationfood securityconditional cash transfer programmes forensuring attendance of children in primaryschool fiscal space assessments to estimate thepotential of replicating or scaling up of successfulinterventions targeted area developmentprogrammes which provide integrated services tovulnerable communities or to people living inremote areas of the country

17) What are potential programming entry pointsfrom other practice perspectives (GovernanceEnergy amp Environment Gender HIVAIDSCrisis Prevention and Recovery) For instanceservice delivery at the decentralized level focusingon modern energy services sanitation and safewater reproductive health HIV Communitymanagement of natural resources Promotingcivil society capacity to monitor the quality ofsocial services

18) Given the interconnectedness of the MDGs arethere cross-practice initiatives which can berecommended as we move forward (exprogrammes that enhance food security forwomen farmers employment creationprogrammes focusing on ldquogreen jobsrdquo etc)

19) What is UNDPs comparative advantagein supporting the specific initiativesidentified above

20) Should we reorient and refocus the supportthat we have been providing thus far How soFor instance has much of UNDP support beenfocused on MDG-based planning Should wemove more to supporting implementation ofon-the-ground programmes or programmesthat scale up support for specific MDGrelated interventions

21) Is the internal organization of UNDP (egknowledge sharing platforms tools manualspublications coherence between global-regional-country level) optimal and how can it beimproved to maximize impact

22) What are the key constraints that the UNDPCO and the UNCT face in terms of providingeffective support to national efforts in achievingthe MDGs Do teams have the necessaryleadership and technical resources Are jointprogramming processes conducive and alignedAre financial resources adequate


ANNEX 11GLOBAL MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALSWITH TARGETS AND INDICATORS

MDG 1 Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger

Target 1a Reduce by half the proportionof people living on less than one dollara day

11 Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day

12 Poverty gap ratio

13 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

Target 1b Achieve full and productiveemployment and decent work for allincluding women and young people

14 Growth rate of GDP per person employed

15 Employment-to-population ratio

16 Proportion of employed people living below $1 (PPP) per day

17 Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers intotal employment

Target 1c Reduce by half between1990 and 2015 the proportion of peoplewho suffer from hunger

18 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age

19 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietaryenergy consumption

MDG 2Achieve Universal Primary Education

Target 2a Ensure that by 2015all boys and girls will be able to completea full course of primary schooling

21 Net enrolment ratio in primary education

22 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last gradeof primary

23 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds women and men

MDG 3 Promote Gender Equality and EmpowerWomen

Target 3a Eliminate gender disparityin primary and secondary educationpreferably by 2005 and at all levels ofeducation by 2015

31 Ratios of girls to boys in primary secondary and tertiary education

32 Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

33 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament


MDG 4 Reduce Child Mortality

Target 4a Reduce by two thirdsbetween 1990 and 2015 the mortalityrate among children under five

41 Under-five mortality rate42 Infant mortality rate43 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against measles

MDG 5 ImproveMaternal Health

Target 5a Reduce by three quartersbetween 1990 and 2015 the maternalmortality ratio

51Maternal mortality ratio52 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

Target 5b Achieve by 2015 universalaccess to reproductive health

53 Contraceptive prevalence rate54 Adolescent birth rate55 Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four visits)

MDG 6 Combat HIVAIDSMalaria and Other Diseases

Target 6a Have halted by 2015 andbegun to reverse the spread of HIVAIDS

61 HIV prevalence among population aged 15-24 years

62 Condom use at last high-risk sex

63 Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensivecorrect knowledge of HIVAIDS

64 Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance ofnon-orphans aged 10-14 years

Target 6b Achieve by 2010 universalaccess to treatment for HIVAIDS for allthose who need it

65 Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with accessto antiretroviral drugs

Target 6c Have halted by 2015 andbegun to reverse the incidence of malariaand other major diseases

66 Incidence and death rates associated with malaria

67 Proportion of children under five sleeping under insecticide-treatedbed nets

68 Proportion of children under five with fever who are treated withappropriate anti-malarial drugs

69 Incidence prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis

610 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directlyobserved treatment short course


MDG 7 Ensure Environmental Sustainability

Target 7a Integrate the principles ofsustainable development into countrypolicies and programmes and reversethe loss of environmental resources

71 Proportion of land area covered by forest72 CO2 emissions total per capita and per $1 GDP (PPP)73 Consumption of ozone-depleting substances74 Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological limits75 Proportion of total water resources used76 Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected77 Proportion of species threatened with extinction

Target 7b Reduce biodiversity lossachieving by 2010 a significantreduction in the rate of loss

Target 7c Halve by 2015 the proportionof people without sustainable access tosafe drinking water and basic sanitation

78 Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source

79 Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility

Target 7d Achieve significantimprovement in lives of at least100 million slum dwellers by 2020

710 Proportion of urban population living in slums

MDG 8Develop a Global Partnership for Development

Target 8a Develop further an openrule-based predictable non-discrimina-tory trading and financial system

Official Development Assistance (ODA) ndash 81 to 8581 Net ODA total and to the least developed countries as percentage of OECDDAC donorsrsquo gross national income82 Proportion of total bilateral sector-allocable ODA of OECDDAC donors to basicsocial services (basic educationprimary health carenutrition safe water and sanitation)83 Proportion of bilateral official development assistance of OECDDAC donorsthat is untied84 ODA received in landlocked developing countries as a proportion of their grossnational incomes85 ODA received in small island developing States as a proportion of their grossnational incomes

Market Access- 86 to 8986 Proportion of total developed country imports (by value and excluding arms)from developing countries and least developed countries admitted free of duty87 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products andtextiles and clothing from developing countries88 Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as a percentage of their grossdomestic product89 Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity

Debt Sustainability- 810 to 812810Total number of countries that have reached their HIPC decision points andnumber that have reached their HIPC completion points (cumulative)811 Debt relief committed under HIPC and MDRI Initiatives812 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services

Target 8b Address the special needs ofthe least developed countries

Target 8c Address the special needs oflandlocked developing countries andsmall island developing States

Target 8d Deal comprehensively withthe debt problems of developingcountries through national and interna-tional measures in order to make debtsustainable in the long term

Target 8e In cooperationwithpharmaceuti-cal companiesprovide access to affordableessential drugs indeveloping countries

813 Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on asustainable basis

Target 8f In cooperation with the privatesectormake available the benefits ofnew technologies especially informationand communications

814Telephone lines per 100 population

815 Cellular subscribers per 100 population

816 Internet users per 100 population



ANNEX 12NATIONAL ADAPTATION OF MDG GOALSTARGETS AND INDICATORS

Europe and the CIS

Country Goals Targets Indicators

Albania Added Goal 9 ldquoEstablishand strengthen a goodgovernance processrdquo

Expanded Goal 1 including otherdimensions of poverty

Expanded Goal 2 oneducation quality

Modified Goal 6 (TB in lieuof malaria)

Added national targets forGoals 1 2 3 8

Modified targets for nationalconditions for Goals 1 4 5 6

Added national indicators forGoals 1 2 6 8

Expanded on existingindicators for Goals 2 4

Modified indicators fornational conditions for Goal 1

Armenia Expanded Goal 2 to be universalbasic education (grades 1-8)

Added national targets forGoals 3 8

Expanded existing targets forGoal 2

Modified targets for nationalconditions for Goals 1 7


Expanded on existingindicators for Goals 3 4 6

Modified indicators for nationalconditions for Goals 1 3

Kyrgyzstan Expanded Goal 2 to be universalbasic secondary education(grades 1-9)

Added national target forGoal 8


Modified targets for nationalconditions for Goals 1 3 7


Expanded on existingindicators for Goals 1 2 6 7

Modified indicators for nationalconditions for Goal 8

Tajikistan Expanded Goal 2 to be universalbasic education (grades 1-9)

Added national targets for Goals1 2 3 7

Expanded existing targets forGoals 1 2 4 5 7

Added national indicatorsfor Goals 1 2 3 5 6 7



Arab States


Bahrain (no change) (no change) (no change)

Iraq MDGs in the Iraqi NationalDevelopment Strategy(2007-2010)

Added new Goal on ControllingCorruption (Goal 8)

Modified Goal 6 (Full accessto water with added healthservices component) and7 (Decent housing for all)

There are no HIVAIDS biodiver-sity or globalpartnership goals

Goals 1 and 5 have been slightlymodified to Mitigate Povertyand Hunger and ReduceMaternal Mortality

There is an ongoing exerciseto tailor targets

MDG targets included in the IraqiNational Development Strategy(2007-2010)

Added targets for the newGoal 8 on corruption and added anew target forGoal 7 on decent housing

Expanded targets related tofull health service accessas well as for Goals 1 and 2

Modified targets for Goals 1 and 5

Added targets for Goals 1 3 5

[New indicators for new targets]

Morocco (no change) Expanded targets forGoals 2 3 6 7

Added indicators forGoals 1 3 4 5 7

Expanded on existing indicatorsfor Goals 1 2 3 4 6 8

Syria (no change) (no change) Expanded indicators forGoals 2 and 6

Yemen (no change) Expanded existing targetfor Goal 1

Modified indicators for Goal 8 toreflect national requirements


Asia and the Pacific


Bangladesh (no change) (no change) Added indicators for Goals 6 7

Expanded indicator for Goal 2

Modified indicators for Goals 1 7

Cambodia Added MDG 9 on De-Mining UXOand Victim Assistance

Expanded MDG 2 to include nineyear basic education

Added targets for Goals 3 and 9

Expanded targets for Goals 2 3 6

Modified targets for Goals 1 4 7

Added indicators forGoals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9

Expanded indicators forGoals 1 2 3 6

Modified existing indicators forGoals 1 6 7

India (no change) (no change) Added indicator for Goal 7

Modified indicators forGoals 1 2 6

Expanded indicators forGoals 2 3 6

Indonesia (no change) Modified target in Goal 8 Added indicator forGoal 1 3 5 6 7 8

Modified indicator forGoal 1 4 7 8

Expanded indicator forGoals 1 2 3 4

Lao PDR (no change) (no change) (no change)

Mongolia Added Goal 9 ldquoGood governanceand zero tolerance to corruptionrdquo

Modified Goal 6 to includenationally relevant diseases(STIs TB)

Added national target forGoals 1 6 7 and new goal 9

Expanded existing targets forGoals 1 7

Modified targets for nationalconditions for Goals 6 and 8

Are redefining indicators

Nepal (no change) (no change) Added indicator for Goal 1 6 7

Modified indicator for Goal 1


Timor-Leste (no change) (no change) Expanded indicator for Goal 2

Vanuatu (no change) (no change) Added indicators forGoals 2 3 4 5 6


Expanded indicators for Goal 3


Latin America and the Caribbean


Colombia Expanded Goal 6 toinclude Dengue

Added national targets forGoals 2 3 (domestic violence)5 (cervical cancer) and 6

Expanded existing targets forGoals 2 3 4 6

Modified targets for nationalconditions for Goal 6


Expanded existing indicators forGoals 2 3 4 6

Modified indicators forGoals 1 6

El Salvador (no change) (no change) An indicator measuring Chagarsquosdisease was added to MDG-6

Modified indicators forGoals 1 and 2 to reflectnational conditions

Jamaica (no change) (no change) Uses the national poverty lineinstead of $1 per day


Africa


Botswana (no change) Added targets for Goals2 3 4 6 7

Expanded targets forGoals 2 3 4

Modified target for Goal 1

Added indicators forGoals 1 2 3 4 6 7 8


Modified indicators for Goal 1

Ethiopia (no change) (no change) Added indicators forGoals 1 2 7


Modified indicators forGoals 1 2 5 7

Ghana (no change) Expanded target for Goal 3




Malawi (no change) (no change) Added indicator for Goal 7

Modified indicators for Goals 1


Mozambique (no change) (no change) (no change)

Senegal Separated Goal 1 into twoseparate goals (povertyand hunger)

Separated Goal 7 into twoseparate goals (environmentsustainability and access topotable water)

Added target for new MDGon food security to covermalnutrition (for all)

(no change)

Sierra Leone Separated Goal 1 into twoseparate goals (povertyand hunger)

(no change) (no change)

Tanzania (no change) Modified target for Goal 1 Added indicators forGoals 1 2 7



Togo (no change) (no change) Added indicators for Goals 3


Expanded indicators for Goals 2 4


Country Remittances Export Receipts PrivateCapital Flows

Impact on Growth andGovernment Revenues

Albania Remittances constituted 14of GDP in the period 1992-2003This is expected to drop

Lower export receipts

Armenia According to the IMF growthwill slow by up to 8 in2009mainly due to the dropin remittances and exports(of mineral products) In thefirst quarter of 2009 budgetrevenues declined by 146compared with the sameperiod in 2008

Bangladesh The economy is highlydependant on remittances(about 10of GDP in 2008-09)

Export receipts are likely tofall (garment exports consti-tute 80 of total exports)

Botswana The countryrsquos diamondindustry practically collapsedtowards the end of 2008 andproduction is expected to belower by 35 and prices by15 in 2009 Prices of copperand nickel (also importantexports) have fallen by70-80 from their peak

The impact of the economiccrisis has been severeTheeconomy is highly vulnerableto changes in global demandand commodity prices themining sector notablydiamonds accounts formore than 40 of GDPmorethan 40 of governmentrevenue and 90 of foreignexchange earnings

Colombia Remittances have droppedby 7

Export revenues have fallen(both due to a drop in thevolume of exports and dueto falls in the prices ofexports (coal oil nickel)

FDI has fallen Government revenues areexpected to fall

El Salvador Remittances are likely to fall The social developmentbudget which had increasedby 167 in 2006-07increased by 23 in 2008and 28 in 2009

Ethiopia Fall in remittances Fall in export revenue Drop in FDI According to the IMFeconomic growth is expectedto slow down from the past4 year average of 11 to 8in 2008 and 65 in 2009

Ghana Decline in remittancesexpected

Decline in export receiptshas been substantial

FDI isexpectedto slow

Ghanarsquos economy is highlydependantonnatural resourcestimber cocoaminerals andfish represent half of GDP90 of foreign exchangeearnings and 70 of totalemployment Fluctuations incommodity prices haveimpacted both economicgrowth and revenues

ANNEX 13 PROJECTED IMPACT OF ECONOMIC ANDFINANCIAL CRISIS ON SAMPLED COUNTRIES





Iraq Export revenues from oilconstitute 75 of thebudgetThe drop in oilprices will adversely impactgovernment revenues

Due to the drop in oilprices the governmentbudget fell from $79 billionto $59 billion

Jamaica Remittances are likely to fall Reduction in the priceof bauxite (the mainmineral export) has loweredexport receipts

Kyrgyzstan Remittances accountedfor 19 of GDP in 2007According to an ADB study159 of all householdsreceive remittancesRemittance income droppedby 30 in the first quarterof 2009

Export revenues have fallendramatically In the firstquarter of 2009 exportscontracted by 30 againstthe same period in 2008

FDI inflowshave fallensharply

GDP growth is expected todrop to 09 in 2009 against76 in 2008

Lao PDR Remittances have fallen Export receipts are downCopper prices contracted by13 compared to 2007 prices

Government revenues aredown by $ 200 million Publicexpenditure has been cut

Malawi Exchange rate appreciationscan impact the volume of ODA

Mongolia Export receipts have fallen(mainly on account of fallingcopper prices)

FDI flows havefallen

The IMF expects GDP growthto drop to 28 in 2009(compared to 99 in 2007)

Morocco Formal remittances throughbanks decreased by 35in 2009

Exports (phosphates carparts textiles) have fallen by32 in the first 2 monthsof 2009

Growth is expected to fallby 15-2 in 2009 becauseof decline in tourismrevenues export revenuesand remittances

Mozambique Impact of the crisis likely tobe moderate mainly due tofalling tourism and export(prawns cashew) revenues

Nepal In 2007 remittances were25 of GDP

Growth is likely tobedampenedon account of falling tourismand export revenues

Sierra Leone Remittances are criticalwith an estimated 86 ofoverseas Sierra Leoneanssending money homeregularly

Export revenues have fallensharplyMinerals made up89 of exports alone in2007 the 37 drop incommodity prices in thelast quarter of 2008 willsignificantly impact foreignexchange earningsAnecdotalevidence suggests thatthe diamond sector is at avirtual standstill

Growth is expected to slowdown considerably

Syria Fall in remittances Fall in FDI Medium term growthoutlook projecteddownwards






Tajikistan Remittances from migrantTajik workers in Russiaamounted to 58 of GDPin 2008 24 of Tajikhouseholds depend onremittances Accordingto the IMF the flow ofremittances fell by 33 inthe first quarter of 2009

Exports contracted by 40 inthe first quarter of 2009 ascompared to the sameperiod in 2008

FDI inflowshave fallensharply sinceearly 2009

GDP growth is expectedto fall by 2-3 in 2009Budget revenues in 2009are expected to be 80 ofplanned estimates govern-ment spending has beencut by 96

Tanzania Export revenues have fallen FDI inflowshave slowed

Growth is expected to slowdown from 72 to 65 duemainly to the drop in exportsand due to the fall in interna-tional commodity prices(cotton coffee tanzanite)Cotton prices have droppedby 20 since Jan 2008Government revenues havealready dropped

Timor-Leste Export receipts have fallendramatically

The economy is highlydependant on oil exports Ifthe price of oil falls below$40 a barrel the countryrsquosPetroleum Fund will facedepletion over time

Yemen Fall in remittances likely Fall in export revenues Fall in FDIlikely

With the drop in oil pricesthe share of revenue in GDPis expected to fall from374 in 2008 to 247 in2013Total expenditures areexpected to drop from 43of GDP in 2008 to 269 ofGDP in 2013


ANNEX 21YEARS AND SOURCESFOR POVERTY AND INEQUALITY DATA

Country Poverty Rate56(mid-late 90s)

Poverty Rate56(mid 00s)

Gini57(mid 90s)

Gini57(mid 00s)

Albania 25 (2002) 19 (2005) 0282 (1997) 0330 (2005)

Armenia 50 (1999) 25 (2007) 0440 (1996) 0338 (2003)

Bahrain NA NA NA NA

Bangladesh 51 (1996) 40 (2005) 0318 (1996) 0318 (2005)

Botswana 47 (1994) 30 (2003) 0610 (1995) NA

Cambodia 36 (1997WDI) 35 (2004WDI) 0380 (1994) 0417 (2004)

Colombia 60 (1995WDI) 46 (2005) 0576 (1995) 0586 (2006)

El Salvador 51 (1995WDI) 37 (2002WDI) 0500 (1995) 0500 (2005)

Ethiopia 46 (1996) 38 (2005) 0400 (1995) 0300 (2005)

Ghana 40 (1999) 28 (2006) 0410 (1998) 0430 (2006)

India 36 (1994) 28 (2005) NA 0368 (2005)

Indonesia 15 (1995) 15 (2008) NA 0390 (2005)

Iraq NA NA NA NA

Kyrgyzstan 25 (2001) 7 (2007) 0540 (1993) 0330 (2004)

Lao PDR 39 (1998WDI) 33 (2003WDI) 0350 (1997) 0330 (2003)

Malawi 54 (1990) 40 (2007) 0503 (1998) 0390 (2004)

Mongolia 36 (1995WDI) 35 (2007) 0330 (1995) 0330 (2005)

Morocco 15 (2001) 9 (2007) 0395 (1999) 0410 (2007)

Mozambique 69 (1997) 54 (2003) 0440 (1997) 0473 (2003)

Nepal 42 (1996) 31 (2004) 0380 (1996) 0472 (2004)

Senegal 57 (2000) 51 (2005) 0413 (1995) 0390 (2005)

Sierra Leone 70 (2003) 66 (2007) 0629 (1990) 0430 (2003)

Syria 14 (1997) 12 (2004) NA NA

Tajikistan 87 (1999) 41 (2007) 0320 (1999) 0340 (2004)

Tanzania 39 (1991WDI) 34 (2004) 0340 (1992) 0350 (2000)

Timor-Leste 36 (2001) 50 (2007) NA NA

Togo 72 (1990) 62 (2006) NA 0340 (2006)

Vanuatu 40 (1998) 16 (2008) NA NA

Average 45 35 0398 0400

56 National poverty lineData fromWorld Development Indicators In cases where data for the national poverty line was not available inWDI data fromthe National MDG Reports was used

57 Data fromWorld Development IndicatorsWorld Bank


Conditional CashTransfer (CCT) programmesprovide cash payments to poor households that meetcertain behavioral requirements generally related tochildrenrsquos healthcare and education The cashcomponent in CCTs are meant to provide an incentiveto families to participate in nutrition and educationprogrammes and to compensate them for the short-term cost of participating in these programmes suchas lost wages of children who attend school CCTsoften provide cash to women who are most likely tospend resources on their children They increase thepurchasing power of the poor through direct cashtransfers and help in alleviating undernutritionThey have become one of the most popular socialprotection programmes in developing countriesespecially in Latin America CCTs are most effectivein countries which have low demand for services andgood quality of existing services

Rationed food subsidy is a quota or rationed subsidyof food to households which ensure regular suppliesof essential food products at subsidized prices Rationstend to benefit the poor more than general foodsubsidies which are more difficult to target In theseprogrammes subsidized food is available at designatedration shops which restrict the quantity each householdcan purchase at the subsidized price The coverageof rations is often limited due to the infrastructurerequired to implement the programme and to avoiddisturbing production incentives Well targetedprogrammes often locate the ration shops in poorneighborhoods in rural areas most affected by foodshortages malnutrition or other deficiencies Rationedfood subsidy programmes have been operating inEgypt and in several countries in South Asiaincluding Bangladesh India Pakistan and Sri Lanka

PublicWorks Programmes are employment schemesthat provide guaranteed unskilled wage employmentat minimum wages In some instances food may beprovided as a wage instead of cash These programmesare usually self-targeting meaning everyone is eligibleto apply for employment but since work is usuallyphysical and at minimum wages only the poor haveenough incentive to apply These schemes are used toconstruct infrastructure such as roads schools and

water harvesting structures which will spur long termgrowth Using food as a wage is appropriate whenthe market for food is disrupted and there are supplyconstraints Wages should be paid either daily orweekly due to the liquidity issues of the poor andthere should be provisions either in the programme orthrough other schemes for households which cannotdo physical work due to age or physical disability

Supplementary Feeding Programmes distributefood to augment energy and nutrients in diets ofthose with special nutritional needs These includeMaternal and Child Health Feeding (MCH) schoolfeeding and emergency feeding programmes The goalsof these programmes include improving nutritionalstatus and providing incentives for participation inother programmes School feeding programmes aresometimes designed to increase attendance enrolmentand to improve childrenrsquos cognitive skills by alleviatingshort-term hungerThey distribute food through schoolor health centers as take home rations or as onsitecooked meals The logistics and administrative capacityrequired to procure transfer store manage anddeliver the goods are significant These programmesare ideal in cases where malnutrition is widespreadand schools and health centers are underutilizedWFP found that in schools where it provided mealsenrolment of girls and boys increased by 28 and22 percent respectively

Food Stamp Programmes provide a coupon or voucherthat may be used to purchase food Some programmesare restricted to certain essential commodities whileothers allow the purchase of any food item Thesecoupons can be redeemed at a local food retail storewhich in turn are reimbursed by the governmentThey are either denominated in terms of cash valueor in the quantity of food items that can be boughtThey are intended to increase the purchasing powerof households and directly increase food consumptionof the poor Food stamps have been seen to increasefood consumption more than an equivalent cashtransfer Further they are easier to manage logisticallythan food distribution schemes where governmenthas to manage the storage transportation anddistribution of food

144

ANNEX 22 COMMON SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES


Programme Description Features What does it require

Conditional CashTransfers

Cash payments to poorhouseholds that meet certainbehavioral requirementsgenerally related to childrenrsquoshealth care and education

Increases demand by providingincentives to people to partici-pate in social programmes

Supply of healthcare andeducation services should bepresent as CCTs do not solvesupply side issues

Administrative capacity tomonitor conditionalities

Rationed FoodSubsidies

Subsidy for food available tohouseholds but in limitedamounts Usually available onlyto a targeted population basedon means test

Helps improve nutritional statuslabour productivity and incomethrough enhanced foodconsumption

Can help fulfill right to food forpeoplewho lack purchasing powerto buy food at market prices

Good targeting mechanism sothat it can capture the ldquonewpoorrdquo and avoid exclusion errors

Mechanism to administer thefood subsidy efficiently

Public Works Employment schemes whichprovide wages in the form ofcash or food to developcommunity assets

Increase purchasing power ofhouseholds through guaranteedsource of employment

Develop community assetswhich can help long-term growth

Self-targeting as people have todo unskilled labor in lieu of wages

Needs mechanism to decide onprojects to be undertaken underthe employment scheme

SupplementaryFeedingProgrammes

Distribution of food for thepurpose of supplementaryenergy and other nutrients tovulnerable groupsThese includepregnant and lactating womenseverely malnourished childrenand school children

These programmes havemultiple objectives to provideincentives to attend school orhealth clinics to enhance thelearning ability of school childrenand to improve nutrition

Can be either in the form oftake-home rations or onsitecooked meals

Well functioning infrastructure ofclinics or schools as distributionmechanism

Ability to manage and track foodsupplies and cooking withoutburdening school teachers orhealthcare staff

Food StampsVouchers andCoupons

Food stamps provide couponsor vouchers to purchase food mdasheither a specified amountor value

They increase the purchasingpower of households

Can lose value if food pricesincrease and coupons aredenominated in cash value

Easier to manage logisticallythan food distribution butgovernment should be able todistribute them safely withoutforging or theft

Needs a well-functioning foodprivate retail system andbanking system


A) ArgentinaThe Jefes Programme (JEFES)

The meaning of the full title of the programme PlanJefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados literally stands forProgramme for Unemployed Household Headsoften abbreviated as Jefes Given the severity of theeconomic crisis in Argentina at the end of 2001 thegovernmentrsquos explicit aim for the Jefes programmewas to reach a larger target group than the previoussocial safety net programmes that targeted employ-ment The discussion of Jefes appears to be moreimportant than other programmes because of itsrelevance to a national economic crisis which manycountries now face Furthermore Jefes was conceivedas an emergency work programme aimed at reachinga larger target group

The stated objective of Jefes included to providefinancial assistance to household heads with childrenin order to guarantee the Family Right of SocialInclusion ensuring (1) the school attendance andhealth of children (2) access of beneficiaries toformal job training and education and (3) theirparticipation in productive projects or communityservices An interesting innovation of Jefes was arequirement that participants had to prove that theirchildren were attending school and receiving essentialhealthcare such as immunization

The programme targeted male and femalehousehold heads with children who are 18 years oldor younger or disabled Likewise households inwhich the female head spouse or cohabitant partnerof the male household head suffers from serioushealth conditions are also eligible To receive benefitsthe household member must provide standardinformation and supporting documentation

Jefes was initially advertised as a lsquouniversalrsquoprogrammersquo and was available to anyone within theeligible population Unlike its predecessorprogramme Jefes did not have an explicit povertyfocus And because of the projected budgetary cost agenuinely universal programme was seen as being notsustainable In early 2002 a counterpart workrequirement was introduced with the aim of ensuringthat the transfers reached those in greatest need The

programme also recognized certain kinds of activitiesas ldquosocially usefulrdquo Participants were required toperform 20 hours of basic community work toengage in training activities to attend school or toobtain employment with a private company with awage subsidy for six months

One distinguishing feature of the programmersquosinstitutional design is its decentralized model Thegovernment provides the funding and guidelines forthe execution of work projects as well as additionalauxiliary services for managing the programmeThese services include maintaining a national registryof participants and databases that track all projectsthat have been proposed approved rejected orcompleted The databases are all publicly availablethereby increasing transparency and reducing corrup-tion The actual administration of the programme isprimarily executed by municipal authorities who areresponsible for assessing the urgent needs andavailable resources of their communities and forevaluating the projects proposed by local NGOs

ImpactAs Galasso and Ravallion (2003) claim while theprogramme had a small effect on the overall povertyrate it had a more significant positive impact onthe incidence of extreme poverty Tcherneva andRandall Wray (2005) found that four months afterimplementation indigence rates among participatinghouseholds had fallen by nearly 25 percent andamong individuals by more 18 percent Fachelli et al(2004) also found an improvement in targeting Morethan 40 percent of participants living below theindigence line have benefited from Jefes

While the expanded Jefes programme absorbed2 million unemployed by mid-2003 and accountedfor 75 percent of current expenditures by governmentit had only reduced unemployment by a maximumof 4 percent (World Bank 2003) However Galassoand Ravallion (2003) estimate that the programmeactually reduced Argentinarsquos unemployment rate byabout 25 percent mdash less than previous estimateswhich assumed that all Jefes participants wouldotherwise have been unemployed While nearly

146

ANNEX 23GOOD PRACTICES OF EMPLOYMENT CREATIONIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

80 percent of participants reported working therequired number of hours very few have used theeducation training and private sector employmentoptions While participants are required to prove theschool attendance and health status of their childrenin practice programme administrators do not collectthis information

Overall the Jefes programme does appear to havecontributed to social protection during the crisis Theprogramme has provided much-needed services andsmall infrastructure projects in poor communitieswith most projects successfully completed andoperating (Tcherneva and Randall Wray 2005)Finally Jefes has also broadened the meaning of workby remunerating social activities such as family careand community involvement

B) Bangladesh PublicWorks Programme

The employment creation programmes inBangladesh have different dimensions The country isdensely populated and seasonal unemployment isvery acute in rural areas Due to the traditionalcultivation method agriculture harbours a substantialamount of underemployment and often disguisedunemployment Given this background policymakersand donors designed new employment generationschemes mainly known as the Food for Works(FFW) Programme and the Rural MaintenanceProgramme (RMP)The major employment initiative in Bangladesh

is the FFW which consists of a variety ofprogrammes and projects that develop and maintainrural infrastructure while providing employment tothe rural poor FFW has become the main employ-ment creation programme in Bangladesh Since 1975it has provided food-waged employment to landlessand marginal farmers during the slack agriculturalseason and improved land infrastructure mdash includingrural road construction and maintenance irrigationchannels flood control and embankments The RMPis similar to the FFW programme It has the dualobjective of maintaining rural earthen roads andproviding employment including cash wages andtraining to destitute women

Beneficiaries are selected according to a self-targeting mechanism Relatively low wages and heavyphysical labour requirements discourage the non-poor from enroling For the RMP the Union

Parishad and the Project Implementation Committeeoversee beneficiary selection Eligibility criteriainclude being divorced separated or otherwisedestitute being 18 to 35 years of age and being fitenough to do the required physical work

The RMP is implemented by Union Parishadsand the Local Government Engineering Departmentwith assistance from CARE Bangladesh Each of the4100 Union Parishads covered by RMP is responsi-ble for maintaining a 20 kilometre stretch of ruralroads which is carried out by a lsquoRoad MaintenanceAssociationrsquo mdash comprised of 10 destitute womenQuality assurance monitoring is carried out by aUnion Parishad member Participating women areenroled in a four-year programme of RMP work andtraining for which they are paid During the lastyear of the project cycle the women are given moreintensive training in basic business management tohelp them undertake income-generating activitiesafter graduation from the project

ImpactOverall public works programmes contributeto mitigating the seasonal food insecurity andunemployment problems of the extremely poor inBangladesh They also create welfare facilities for thepoor and expand rural production and marketingthrough the construction of small infrastructureThus public works programmes that are duly targetedin specific regions and to vulnerable groups mdash andparticularly during lean months mdash can contributesignificantly towards helping the poor gain betteraccess to food and income and to improving theirliving conditions

In highlighting its effectiveness in Bangladeshvon Braun et al (1991) found that FFW has hadlong-term development impacts including improvednutrition and increased agricultural productionThey also found that agricultural productionincreased by an average of 27 percent and per capitahousehold income by about 10 percent as a resultof the direct and indirect effects of the programmeReviews of public works infrastructure programmesin Bangladesh also found significant benefits toagriculture including both a doubling of fertilizer useand of land under irrigation by programme partici-pants (Mujeri 2002) In addition because feederroads improve access to government services and toinput and output markets fertilizer prices were lower



its use was higher and post-harvest paddy pricesincreased in villages where labour-based infrastruc-ture projects had constructed rural roads and otherphysical infrastructure (Ahmed and Donovon 1992)The RMP has also contributed to rural savings

and productivity enhancement through trainingWork activities have been undertaken on nearly75 per cent of rural earthen roads in the country Anaverage of 60000 destitute women per year has beensupported by the programme (Sobhan 1998 inRahman 2000)

C) South Africa Expanded PublicWorksProgram (EPWP)

The Expanded Public Works Program (EPWP) is anationwide effort that seeks to draw significantnumbers of the unemployed into productive sectorsof the economy improving their skills and increasingtheir capacity to earn income The EPWP started in2004 and seeks to address unemployment in theshort and medium-term In the long-term broaderstrategies aim to increase economic growth so thatthe number of net new jobs created exceeds thenumber of new entrants into the labour marketAt the same time efforts will aim at improving theeducation system and the skills of workers enteringthe labour market

The programme has a target of providingemployment opportunities and training to at least1 million unemployed people in the first five years(2004ndash2009) Municipalities and provinces must beguided by the prevailing minimum wage in their areaand by ongoing poverty relief projects Because theaim is not to displace workers from existing employ-ment to new EPWP projects legal provision is madefor EPWP projects to pay below the minimum wageMen women disabled persons and the aged mustalso receive the same pay for work of equal valueWhile beneficiaries should be unemployed individu-als from the most vulnerable parts of disadvantagedcommunities who do not receive social securitypension income there are also specific participationtargets for single and female-headed households aswell as for women youth people with disabilitieshouseholds coping with HIV and AIDS andpeople in long-term unemployment Proposed targetsaim for 60 percent of beneficiaries to be women

20 percent youth (18-25 years of age) and 2 percentdisabled Additional selection criteria include peoplefrom households where the head has less than aprimary school education people from householdsthat have less than one person with full-time income-generation and people from households wheresubsistence agriculture is the main source of incomeThe EPWPrsquos goal is to create work opportunitiesalong with related training for a minimum of1 million people by 2009

The programme has been divided into foursectors infrastructure economic environment andcultural and social This type of classification intargets is arguably useful and unique as workopportunities are to be created in each sectorAlthough the EPWP is driven from the nationalgovernment level provinces and municipalities willbe the primary implementing bodies and will receivesupport from the national departments responsiblefor coordination in each sector

1) InfrastructureThere will be large-scale labor-intensive programmes to upgrade rural andmunicipal roads pipelines and storm-water drainsPeople living in the vicinity of these projects willbe employed by contractors to carry out thework The labour-intensive construction projectswill provide both local employment opportunitiesand skills training to the unemployed whilebuilding cost-effective and quality assets

2) EconomicThe economic sector activities willfocus on developing small businesses and cooper-atives and will offer a work experience componentas part of small enterprise learning programmes

3) Environment and Culture Environmentalprojects will create employment opportunities forthe unemployed to work on activities to improvetheir local environment under such governmentefforts as the lsquoLand Carersquo programme lsquoPeopleand Parksrsquo and lsquoWorking for Waterrsquo A target of200000 new employment opportunities has beenset for this sector over the next five years

4) SocialThe social sector programmes will offeremployment to people with NGOs and thegovernment to work in home and community-based care programmes and on early childhooddevelopment programmes

148

Social AuditsPublic Expenditure ReviewsSocial Audits are a tool of social accountability thatcan be used by any organization to monitor theinternal and external consequences of its operationsIt can also be used by third parties such as civilsociety organizations to verify the social performanceclaims of institutions The purpose is to assess theperformance of an organization against the socialenvironmental and community goals to which it hascommitted itself Social Audits assess the impact ofactivities through systematic and regular monitoring

The ultimate goal of Social Audits is improvedservice delivery on a continual basis They arecomprehensive participatory regular comparativeand multi-directional They also aim to reflect thevoices of all involved and affected stakeholders Goodpractice Social Audits ensure the social accounts areaudited appropriately and practice full disclosure forstakeholders and interested community members

Social Audits have been used extensively in Indiain a variety of sectors including local governance servicedelivery microfinance services and education programmesfor former child workers They have also been used inUganda Tanzania Bolivia and Honduras

Citizen Report CardsCitizen Report Cards (CRCs) are participatorysurveys that obtain feedback on the performanceof public services from the clients who use thoseservices They are also a public accountability toolused to induce service improvement through publicpressure from extensive media coverage and civilsociety advocacy that often accompanies the process

As the name suggests CRCs report scores givenby users on the quality and satisfaction of differentservices such as health and education or scores onperformance criteria such as availability accessquality and reliability It is a quantitative measureof the overall satisfaction of users In this waycitizens can collectively pressure agencies forneeded change with the backing of credibleinformation on performance

Citizen Report Cards are used when there is anabsence of user perceptions on quality and satisfac-tion of public services Some applications include Cross-state comparisons on access use reliability

and satisfaction with public services (India) Inputs to performance based budget allocations

for pro-poor services (Philippines) Supplementing national service delivery (Uganda) Governance reform projects (Ukraine

and Bangladesh)

Community Score Cards

Like the Citizen Report Cards the Community ScoreCard (CSC) is a participatory monitoring tool thatsolicits user perceptions to incentivize public account-ability and responsiveness from service providersInstead of surveys however CSCs use focus groupinteractions and interface meetings between serviceproviders and the community to allow for immediatefeedback As a result CSCs are also an effective vehiclefor community empowerment and strengtheningcitizen voice as well as service delivery improvement

The CSC is seen as a process rather than a documentor product and the completed scorecard is only oneaspect of this process The interface meeting betweenusers and providers to provide feedback and to createa mutually agreed reform agenda is a key componentto the methodology Service providers also complete aself-assessment so that both the providers and theusers have a chance to provide formal inputs

Community Score Cards have been used effectivelyin Malawi for health services as well as The Gambia

Public HearingsPublic Audit

Collective assessment of a programme by stakehold-ers is called a public audit or public hearing which isused in participatory monitoring and evaluation of aprogramme by developing a common understandingof the stakeholderrsquos function duties and rights

Before a public hearing the programmersquos incomeand expenditure budgets are publicized they are alsoexplained during the meeting The public then getsan opportunity to comment on the presentation budgetincome expenditure and decisions made by theprogramme Any funds that have been determined tobe misappropriated are requested to be returned Thisprocess helps to ensure transparency and accountabilityof service providers as well as upholds rule of law andthe principles of equity and predictability It also helpsto promote social inclusiveness among the communitywhich helps to reduce social discrimination

Concerned Citizens of Abra for Good Governance(CCAGG) in the Philippines successfully used publicaudits to expose corruption in government projectsthat were intended to deliver services to the Abraregion Despite their successes the experiencehighlighted the importance of institutionalizing theprocess to ensure on-going accountability andtransparency of service providers

ResourcesSouth Asia Social Accountability Network (wwwsasanetorg)World Bank Participatory Monitoring and Evaluation(wwwworldbankorg)


ANNEX 31 PARTICIPATORY MONITORING TOOLS


Abu-Ismael K 2009aMDG Country AssessmentSyria Regional Bureau for the Arab States andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Abu-Ismael K 2009bMDG Country AssessmentYemen Regional Bureau for the Arab States andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Action Aid 2009Where Does it Hurt The impact ofthe financial crisis on developing countries London

Adam Christopher and D Bevan 2005 lsquoFiscalDeficits and Growth in Developing CountriesrsquoJournal of Public Economics Elsevier Vol 89 (4)pp 571-597

Addison Tony and Roe A 2006 Fiscal Policy forDevelopment Palgrove Macmillan

AfDBOECD 2008 African Economic OutlookAfrican Perspectives and Recommendations to

the G20 2009 Impact of the Crisis on AfricanEconomies Sustaining Growth and PovertyReduction Committee of African FinanceMinisters and Central Bankers

Alesina A amp R Perotti 1996 lsquoIncome DistributionPolitical Instability and Investmentrsquo EuropeanEconomic Review 40(6)

Alesina A amp D Rodrik 1994 lsquoDistributive politicsand economic growthrsquoQuarterly Journal of Eco-nomics 109(2)

Alderman H J Hoddinott and B Kinsey 2004Long Term Consequences of Early ChildhoodMalnutrition HiCNWorking Paper 09University of Sussex Households in ConflictNetwork Brighton UK

Alesina Alberto 1998 The Political Economy ofMacroeconomic Stabilizations and Income InequalityMyths and Reality lsquoIncome Distribution andHigh Quality Growthrsquo eds V Tanzi and K ChuCambridge Massachusetts MIT Press

Altangerel T 2009MDG Country AssessmentMongolia Regional Bureau for Asia Pacific andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Ashauer David Alan 2000 lsquoDo States OptimizePublic Capital and Economic GrowthrsquoThe Annals of Regional Science SpringerVol 34(3) pp 343-363

Bahadur Chandrika M Kruk and G Schmidt-Traub2005 Preparing National Strategies to Achieve theMDGs A Handbook Millennium Project UnitedNations New York

Barro Robert 1991 lsquoEconomic Growth in a CrossSection of Countriesrsquo The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics Vol 106 No 2 pp 407-443

Bassett L 2008 Can Conditional Cash TransferPrograms Play a Greater Role in Reducing ChildUnder-nutrition Social Protection DiscussionPaper 0835

Bird Richard and E Zolt 2007 Tax Policy inEmerging Countries International Tax ProgramPapers 0707 International Tax Program Institutefor International Business Joseph L RotmanSchool of Management University of Toronto

Birdsall Nancy 2007 lsquoInequality MattersrsquohttpbostonreviewnetBR322birdsallphp

Birdsall 1997 lsquoOn Growth and Poverty ReductionDistribution Mattersrsquo Remarks at the Conferenceon Poverty Reduction Harvard Institute forInternational Development 8 February 1997

Birdsall Nancy and Juan Luis Londontildeo 1997lsquoAsset Inequality Matters An Assessment of theWorld Bank Approach to Poverty ReductionrsquoThe American Economic Review Vol 87 No 2pp 32-37

Bose N JA Holman and KC Neanidis 2005The Optimal Public Expenditure Financing PolicyDoes the Level of Economic Development MatterCentre for Growth and Business Cycle ResearchDiscussion Paper Series 57 EconomicsUniversity of Manchester

Bourguignon Franccedilois 2009Where Do We StandAt Mid-Point the MDG Report 2009 UnitedNations New York

Bourguignon Franccedilois 2004 lsquoThe Poverty-Growth-Inequality Trianglersquo Paper presented at theIndian Council for Research on InternationalEconomic Relations New DelhiTheWorld Bank

Bourguignon Franccedilois A Beacutenassy-Queacutereacute S Derconet al 2008Millennium Development Goals atMidpoint Where do we stand and where do weneed to go Background paper for the 2009European Report on Development EuropeanCommission Brussels

Bourguignon Franccedilois and M Sundberg 2006Constraints to Achieving the MDGs with Scaled-UpAid DESAWorking Paper 15 UNDESANew York

Bourguignon Franccedilois M Bussolo LPereira daSilva HTimmer and D van der Mensbrugghe2004MAMS ndashMaquette for MDGs Simulation

150

REFERENCES

A simple Macro-Micro Linkage Model fora Country-Specific Modeling of the MillenniumDevelopment Goals or MDGs The World BankWashington DC

Britto T 2005 Recent Trends in the DevelopmentAgenda of Latin America An analysis of conditionalcash transfers Paper presented at the conferenceon Social Protection for Chronic Poverty hostedby the Institute for Development policy andManagement and the Chronic Poverty ResearchCentre Manchester UK

Bruumlck Tilman 2001Mozambique The EconomicEffects of the War In War and UnderdevelopmentVolume 2 Country Experiences Frances Stewartand Valpy Fitzgerald eds Oxford UniversityPress Oxford

Byerlee D TS Jayne and R Myers 2006lsquoManaging Food Price Risks and Instability ina Liberalizing Market Environment Overviewand Policy Optionsrsquo Food Policy Vol 31 (4)pp 275-287

Cavallo Eduardo and Christian Daude 2008Public Investment in Developing CountriesA Blessing or a Curse Research DepartmentWorking Paper 648 Inter-AmericanDevelopment BankWashington DC

Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment January2009 UNDP

Chambas Gerard etal 2006 Assessing Fiscal Spacein Developing Countries Concept paper commis-sioned by UNDP CERDI

Christiaensen L and L Demery 2007Down toEarth Agriculture and Poverty Reduction in AfricaThe World BankWashington DC

Christiaensen L L Demery and J Kuhl 2006The Role of Agriculture in Poverty ReductionAn Empirical Perspective The World Bank PolicyResearch Working Paper 4013 The WorldBank Washington DC

Chu Ke-Young H Davoodi and S Gupta 2000Income Distribution and Tax Government SocialSpending Policies in Developing Countries WorldInstitute for Developing Economics ResearchWorking Paper 214 The United NationsUniversity New York

Chulu O 2009MDG Country Assessment MalawiBureau for Africa and the Bureau for Develop-ment Policy UNDP New York

ClineWilliam 2007 Global Warming and AgricultureImpact Estimates by Country Center for GlobalDevelopment and the Peterson Institute forInternational EconomicsWashington DC

Collier Paul and others (eds) 2003 lsquoBreaking theConflict Trap Civil War and DevelopmentPolicyrsquoWorld BankWashington DC

The Commission of Experts on Reforms of theInternational Monetary and Financial System2009 Recommendations Independent Commis-sion established by the President of the UnitedNations General Assembly

Commission on Status of Women 2009 The GenderPerspectives of the Financial Crisis paper presentedat the 53rd Session of the Commission on theStatus of Women 2 to 13 March 2009 UnitedNations New York

Coulibaly S 2009aMDG Country AssessmentSenegal Regional Bureau for Africa and Bureaufor Development Policy UNDP New York

Coulibaly S 2009bMDG Country Assessment SierraLeone Regional Bureau for Africa and Bureau forDevelopment Policy UNDP New York

Coulibaly S 2009cMDG Country Assessment TogoRegional Bureau for Africa and Bureau forDevelopment Policy UNDP New York

Cukrowski J 2009MDG Country AssessmentAlbania Regional Bureau for Europe and theCIS and Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

De Hoyos R and DMedvedev 2009 Poverty Effectsof Higher Food Prices A global perspective PolicyResearch Working Paper Series 4887 TheWorld BankWashington DC

Deininger Klaus and Lyn Squire 1996 lsquoA New DataSet Measuring Income InequalityrsquoWorld BankEconomic Review 10(3)

DFID 2009 Eliminating World Poverty Buildingour Common Future Background paper to theDFID conference on the Future of InternationalDevelopment March 2009 UK Department forInternational Development

Dregraveze Jean 2004 lsquoDemocracy and the Right toFoodrsquo Economic and Political Weekly Vol 39pp 1723-31

Dregraveze Jean and A Goyal 2003 lsquoFuture of MiddayMealsrsquo Economic and Political Weekly 1 November

EasterlyW and S Rebelo 1993 lsquoFiscal Policy andEconomic Growth An Empirical InvestigationrsquoJournal of Monetary Economics 32 pp 417ndash458

Economist The 2002 lsquoCleaning up Time Landminesin Afghanistanrsquo February London

England Robert 2009 lsquoThe Role of DemocraticGovernance in Achieving the MillenniumDevelopment Goalsrsquo Background paper preparedfor the report Beyond the Midpoint Accelerating



Support for MDG Achievements Bureau forDevelopment Policy UNDP New York

Fan Zhai et al 2004 Labor Market DistortionsRural-Urban Inequality and the opening of ChinarsquosEconomy Policy Research Working PaperThe World Bank Washington DC

Ferreira F and R Paes de Barros 1998 lsquoClimbing aMoving Mountain Explaining the Declinein Income Inequality in Brazil from 1976 to1996rsquo Inter-American Development BankWashington DC

Flore C 2009a MDG Country AssessmentLao PDR Regional Bureau for Asia Pacificand the Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Flore C 2009bMDG Country Assessment VanuatuRegional Bureau for Asia Pacific and the Bureaufor Development Policy UNDP New York

Food and Agriculture Organization 2008a The Stateof Food Insecurity in the World Rome

Food and Agricultural Organization 2008b lsquoSoaringFood Prices Facts Perspectives Impacts andActions Requiredrsquo Presented at the High LevelConference on World Food Security TheChallenges of Climate Change and Bio-EnergyRome June

Food and Agriculture Organization 2003 SafetyNets and the Right to Food IntergovernmentalWorking Group for the Elaboration of a Set ofVoluntary Guidelines to Support the ProgressiveRealization of the Right to Adequate Food inthe Context of National Food SecurityInformation Paper

Gemmell Norman 2001 Fiscal Policy in a GrowthFrameworkWIDER Discussion Paper No 100184

Ghobarah Hazem Adam Paul Huth and BruceRussett 2003 lsquoCivil Wars Kill and MaimPeople ndash Long after the Shooting StopsrsquoAmerican Political Science Review 97(2) 189ndash202

Goodhand Jonathan 2004 lsquoFromWar Economy toPeace Economy Reconstruction and StateBuilding in Afghanistanrsquo Journal of InternationalAffairs 58(1)

Government of India 2009 httpindiagovinsectorseducationmid_day_mealphpMidday Meal Scheme

Gore Charles 2002 Globalization the InternationalPoverty Trap and Chronic Poverty in the LeastDeveloped Countries Chronic Poverty ResearchCentre CPRC Working Paper No 30UNCTAD Geneva

Gottschalk R 2004 The Macroeconomic PolicyContent of PRSPs How Much Pro-Growth How

Much Pro-Poor The Institute of DevelopmentStudies University of Sussex BrightonUK

Gragnolati M M Shekar M Das GuptaC Bredenkamp and Y Lee 2005 IndiarsquosUndernourished Children A call for reform andaction Health Nutrition and PopulationDiscussion Paper The World BankWashington DC

Gupta S K Honjo and M Verhoeven 1997The Efficiency of Government ExpenditureExperiences from Africa IMF Working Paper WP97153

Gupta S R Powell and Y Yang 2006 TheMacroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid toAfrica A Checklist for Practitioners InternationalMonetary Fund Washington DC

Hailu D 2009aMDG Country AssessmentIndonesia Regional Bureau for Asia Pacific andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Hailu D 2009bMDG Country AssessmentTimor-Leste Regional Bureau for Asia Pacificand the Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Hall Anthony 2006 lsquoFrom Fome Zero to BolsaFamilia Social Policies and Poverty AlleviationUnder Lularsquo Journal of Latin American StudiesVol 38 (4) pp 689-709

Haque ME and DH Kim 2003 Public Investmentin Transportation and Communication and GrowthA Dynamic Panel Approach Centre for Growthand Business Cycle Research Discussion PaperSeries 31 Economics The University ofManchester UK

Heller Peter 2005 Understanding Fiscal Space IMF Policy Discussion Paper Fiscal AffairsDepartment the IMFWashington DC

Heston Alan Robert Summers and Bettina Aten2006 Penn World Table Version 62 Center forInternational Comparisons of ProductionIncome and Prices (CIC) at the University ofPennsylvania Philadelphia PA

Hoekman Bernard and M Olarreaga Eds 2007Impacts and Implications of Global Trade Reform onPoverty Brookings Institution Washington DC

Human Security Centre 2005 Human SecurityReport 2005 War and Peace in the 21st CenturyOxford University Press London and NewYork NY

Humberto Lopez J 2008 Pro-Poor Growth Areview of what we know (and what we donrsquot)The World Bank Washington DC

152

Humberto Lopez J 2006 lsquoThe Relative Roles ofGrowth and Inequality for Poverty Reductionrsquochapter in the book Poverty Reduction andGrowth Virtuous and Vicious Circles The WorldBank Washington DC

ICBL (International Campaign to Ban Landmines)2006 lsquoLandmine Monitor Report 2006 Towarda Mine-Free Worldrsquo Human Rights Watch NewYork NY

Iftikhar U 2009MDG Country Assessment NepalRegional Bureau for Asia Pacific and the Bureaufor Development Policy UNDP New York

International Assessment of Agricultural KnowledgeScience and Technology for Development-IAASTD 2008 Global Summary Report forDecision Makers

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)2009 The Challenge of Hunger Focus on FinancialCrisis and Gender Inequality Klaus von GrebmerR Fertziger H Fritschel B Nestorova AQuisumbing R Pandya-Lorch and Y Yohannes

International Labour Organization 2009a TheFinancial and Economic Crisis A Decent WorkResponse Discussion paper for the UN GeneralAssemblyrsquos Extraordinary Interactive ThematicDialogue on the World Financial and EconomicCrisis and its Impact on Development New York

International Labour Organization 2009b GlobalEmployment Trends Report ILO Geneva

International Labour Organization 2008a GlobalWage Report 200809 Minimum wages andcollective bargaining towards policy coherenceILO Geneva

International Labour Organization 2008b The Worldof Work Report 2008 Income Inequalities in the Ageof Financial Globalization International LabourOrganization and the International Institute forLabour Studies Geneva

Ivanic M and Martin W 2008 Implications ofHigher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low IncomeCountries Policy Research Working Papers 4594 The World Bank Washington DC

Jaumlntti M and S Sandstroumlm 2005 Trends in IncomeInequality A critical examination of evidence inWIID2 mimeographed Helsinki WIDER

Jha R 2001Macroeconomic of Fiscal Policy inDeveloping Countries Paper prepared for theWIDERUNU project on New Fiscal Policiesfor Growth and Poverty Reduction

Jha R 2004Macroeconomic Stabilization andPro-Poor Budgetary Policy in the GlobalizedEconomy Centre for Applied MacroeconomicAnalysis Working Paper No 2004-8 Australian

National University - Australia South AsiaResearch Centre (ASARC)

Khan AR 1993 Structural Adjustment and IncomeDistribution ILO Geneva

Lahoti Rahul 2009 Compendium on Best Practices inReducing Hunger and Food Insecurity Backgroundpaper for Beyond the Midpoint AcceleratingSupport for MDG Achievements Bureau forDevelopment Policy UNDP New York

Langenbrunner J 2005 Health Care Financing andPurchasing in ECA An Overview of Issues andReforms the World Bank Washington DC

Lerner A 1948 lsquoThe Burden of the National Debtrsquoin Income Employment and Public Policy Vol 260

Levine S 2009aMDG Country AssessmentBotswana Regional Bureau for Africa andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Levine S 2009b MDG Country AssessmentGhana Regional Bureau for Africa andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Levine S 2009cMDG Country AssessmentMozambique Regional Bureau for Africa andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Li K 2007 lsquoMinister of Education UrgesInternational Support for Recovery in Post-Conflict Liberiarsquo In UNICEF at a GlanceLiberia United Nations Childrenrsquos Fund(UNICEF) New York NY

Lopez J Humberto 2008 Pro-Poor GrowthA review of what we know (and what we donrsquot)The World Bank Washington DC

Mathematica Policy Research Inc 2007 Evaluationof Jamaicarsquos PATH Program Final Reportsubmitted to the Ministry of Labour and SocialSecurity Jamaica

Mazivila D 2009MDG Country AssessmentTanzania Regional Bureau for Africa andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

McKinley T and D Hailum 2006 TheMacroeconomic Debate on Scaling Up HIVAIDSFinancing Policy Research Brief InternationalPoverty Centre UNDP New York

Memorandum on the Draft Malawian Access toInformation Bill Article 19 Global Campaignfor Free Expression London March 2004

Mikhalev V 2009aMDG Country AssessmentKyrgyzstan Regional Bureau for Europe and the



CIS and the Bureau for Development PolicyUNDP New York

Mikhalev V 2009bMDG Country AssessmentTajikistan Regional Bureau for Europe and theCIS and the Bureau for Development PolicyUNDP New York

Milbourne R G Otto and G Voss 2003 lsquoPublicInvestment and Economic Growthrsquo AppliedEconomics Taylor and Francis Journals Vol 35 (5)pp 527-540

Miller C Tsoka M and Reichert K 2009The Impact of the Social Cash Transfer Scheme onFood Security in Malawi in review

Miller S R Lal M Lieuw-Kie-Song andD Kostzer 2009 Employment GuaranteeProgrammes A Response to Economic Crisisand Structural Unemployment in DevelopingCountries Poverty Reduction Discussion PaperPG2009003 Bureau for Development PolicyUNDP New York

Ministry of Finance and Economic Development2008 Ethiopia Progress Towards Achieving theMDGs Successes Challenges and Prospects AddisAbaba Ethiopia

Government of Ethiopia Ministry of Health200607 Annual Report Addis Ababa Ethiopia

Morshed KAM 2009MDG Country AssessmentBangladesh Regional Bureau for Asia Pacificand the Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Mosley P and Suleiman A 2007 lsquoAid Agricultureand Poverty in Developing Countriesrsquo Review ofDevelopment Economics Vol 11 (1)

Mosley P Hudson J and Verschoor A 2004 lsquoAidPoverty Reduction and the New ConditionalityrsquoThe Economic Journal Vol 114 pp F217ndashF243

National Family Health Survey - NFHS (2006)database httpwwwnfhsindiaorgnfhs3_national_reporthtml

National MDG reports Various countriesNehmeh A 2009aMDG Country Assessment

Bahrain Regional Bureau for the Arab Statesand the Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Nehmeh A 2009b MDG Country AssessmentIraq Regional Bureau for the Arab States andthe Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Nehmeh A 2009cMDG Country AssessmentMorocco Regional Bureau for the Arab Statesand the Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Ohiorhenuan John FE 2007 The Challenge ofEconomic Reform in Post-Conflict Liberia TheInsiderrsquos Perspective Background Paper Bureaufor Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR)UNDP New York

OECD-DAC 2008 OECD Journal onDevelopment Development Cooperation Report2007OECD Paris

OECD-DAC 2005 Survey on Progress in AidHarmonization and Alignment Measuring AidHarmonization and Alignment in 14 CountriesPresented at the Second High Level Forum onHarmonization and Alignment of AidEffectiveness in early 2005 OECD Paris

lsquoParis Declaration on Aid Effectiveness OwnershipHarmonization Alignment Results andAccountabilityrsquo 2005 High Level Forum Paris

Paul Biru Paksha 2009 lsquoGood Practices ofEmployment Creation in Developing CountriesrsquoBackground paper for Beyond the MidpointAccelerating Support for MDG AchievementsBureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Peoplersquos Forum on the MDGs - PFM 2007Not Yet Free of Bondage An Overview of theIndependent Civil Society report on the Progressof the MDGs in Bangladesh

Pettinato S 2009aMDG Country AssessmentColombia Regional Bureau for Latin Americaand the Caribbean and the Bureau forDevelopment Policy UNDP New York

Pettinato S 2009bMDG Country AssessmentJamaica Regional Bureau for Latin America andthe Caribbean and the Bureau for DevelopmentPolicy UNDP New York

Pizarro G 2009MDG Country Assessment ElSalvador Regional Bureau for Latin America andthe Caribbean and the Bureau for DevelopmentPolicy UNDP New York

Pratham 2008 Annual Status of Education Report2008 Pratham New Delhi

Rao M Govinda Anuradha Seth and ChewangRinzin 2009 Financing Strategy for Achievementof the MDGs and Implementation of the TenthFive Year Plan Working Paper No 2009-59National Institute of Public Finance and PolicyNew Delhi

Rao M Govinda Anuradha Seth and ChewangRinzin 2008 Fiscal Space and Financing theMDGs in Bhutan UNDP Regional CentreColombo

Rashid Hamid 2009 Land Livelihood and PeaceBuilding in Northern Uganda Some PreliminaryThoughts Bureau for Development PolicyUNDP New York

154

Reddy Sanjay and A Heuty 2005 Achieving theMillennium Development Goals A Critique and aStrategy Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Republic of Mozambique and United Nations 2008Report on the Millennium Development GoalsMaputo Ministry of Planning and Development


Revallion M 2002 lsquoExternalities in RuralDevelopment Evidence from Chinarsquo mimeoThe World Bank

Rodriguez F and Moreno MA 2006 Plenty ofRoom Fiscal Space in a Resource AbundantEconomy Wesleyan Economics Research Paper

Rodriguez F 2006 Understanding Fiscal ExpansionsBureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Rodrik Dani 1998 lsquoWhere did all the growth goExternal shocks social conflict and growthcollapsesrsquo Centre for Economic Policy ResearchDiscussion Paper 1789

Roy Rathin and Antoine Heuty (eds) 2009 FiscalSpace Policy Options for Financing HumanDevelopment UNDP New York

Roy Rathin Antoine Heuty and EmmanuelLetouze 2007 Fiscal Space for What AnalyticalIssues from a Human Development PerspectivePaper for the G20 workshop on Fiscal policyIstanbul (30 June to 2 July 2007)

Sahakyan N 2009MDG Country AssessmentArmenia Regional Bureau for Europe and theCIS and Bureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Seshan Ganesh and DUmali-Deininger 2007Agriculture and Import Liberalization andHousehold Welfare in Sri Lanka Mimeographed

Seth Anuradha 2009MDG Country AssessmentIndia Regional Bureau for Asia Pacific andBureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Seth Anuradha and Yuba Raj Khatiwada 2007MDG-Consistent Macroeconomic Frameworks AnAnalytical Approach Millennium DevelopmentGoals Initiative Discussion Paper Number 1Regional Center Colombo UNDP Colombo

Seth Anuradha 2005AligningMDG Sectoral InvestmentNeeds with National Budgetary Frameworks Paperpresented at the conference on MDG-basedNational Strategies Hua Jin Thailand

Seth Anuradha 2008 Fiscal Policy Fiscal Space andFinancing for Development Goals The Role ofFiscal Policy for Growth Distribution and PovertyReduction Paper presented at the Policy Dialogueson Inequality regional conference MillenniumDevelopment Goals Initiative UNDP RegionalCenter Colombo UNDP Colombo

Sireh-Jallow A 2009MDG Country AssessmentEthiopia Regional Bureau for Africa and theBureau for Development Policy UNDPNew York

Sood T 2006 NREGA Challenges in ImplementationInfochange Poverty News and analysis on socialjustice and development issues in Indiahttpinfochangeindiaorg20060901283PovertyFeaturesNREGA-Challenges-in-implementationhtml pp 1-3

South Asia Social Accountability Network(wwwsasanetorg)

Stewart Frances Brown G and Langer A 2007Inequalities Conflict and Economic RecoveryBackground Paper Bureau for Crisis Preventionand Recovery UNDP New York

Stewart Frances and V Fitzgerald (eds) 2001War and Underdevelopment Volume 1 TheEconomic and Social Consequences of ConflictOxford University Press Oxford

Tanzi Vito 1998 Fundamental Determinants ofInequality and the Role of Government IMFWorking Paper 178

Tehreek-E-Pasmanda Muslim Samaj - TPMS 2008Millennium Development Goals and Muslims inIndia A Status Report TPMS New Delhi

UNCTAD XII Conference on Trade andDevelopment 2008 Struggling despite bettergrowth least developed countries seek successfulstrategies Press release Accra Ghana

UNDESA 2007 Development Cooperation withMiddle-Income Countries Background paperto the Special Conference on DevelopmentCooperation with Middle Income CountriesThe United Nations New York

UNDP and DSI 2007 Macroeconomic and FiscalOutlook for Mongolia 2007-2015 Regional Centrefor Asia and the Pacific UNDP Colombo

UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme)2007 Sudan Post-Conflict EnvironmentalAssessment United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP) Nairobi

UNESCAP 2005 Implementing the MonterreyConsensus in the Asian and Pacific RegionAchieving Coherence and Consistency UnitedNations Economic and Social Commission forAsia and the Pacific



United Nations 2009a The Millennium DevelopmentGoals Report 2009 United Nations New York

United Nations 2009b Legal Empowerment of thePoor and Eradication of Poverty - Report of theSecretary-General UN General AssemblyReport A64133

United Nations 2008 Delivering on the GlobalPartnership for Achieving the MillenniumDevelopment Goals MDG Gap Task ForceReport 2008 United Nations New York

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United Nations Development Group 2005Makingthe MDGs Matter A Country Perspective Reportof a UNDG Survey UNDG New York

United Nations Development Programme 2008aThe Compilation of MDG Case Studies ReflectingProgress and Challenges in Asia Report for theUN High Level Event on the MillenniumDevelopment Goals UNDP New York

United Nations Development Programme 2008bCrisis Prevention and Recovery Report 2008Post-Conflict Economic Recovery Enabling LocalIngenuity UNDP New York

United Nations Development Programme 2008cEmpowered and Equal UNDP Gender EqualityStrategy 2008-2011 Bureau for DevelopmentPolicy UNDP New York

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United Nations Development Programme 2004Millennium Development Goals Needs AssessmentsMethodology Millennium Project UNDPNew York

UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs andCrime) 2007 lsquoAfghanistan Opium Survey2007rsquo Vienna

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees2009 2008 Global Trends Refugees Asylum-seekers Returnees Internally Displaced and StatelessPersons Geneva

US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants 2007World Refugee Survey 2007 US Committee forRefugees and Immigrants Washington DC

Vandemoortele J 2009a lsquoThe MDG ConundrumMeeting the targets without missing the pointrsquoforthcoming in the Development Policy Review

Vandemoortele J 2009b lsquoTaking the MDGs Beyond2015 Hasten Slowlyrsquo paper commissioned for aHigh-Level Policy Forum on lsquoAfter 2015Promoting Pro-Poor Policy after the MDGsrsquoorganized by DSAEADIAction Aid Brussels

Vandemoortele J and Roy R 2005 lsquoMaking Sense ofMDG Costingrsquo Helsinki Process Publication SeriesMarch 2005 pp 62-72 Foreign Ministry Helsinki

Vleugels Roger 2008Overview of All FOIA Countries

Vos Robert Marco V Saacutenchez and Keiji Inoue2007 Constraints to Achieving the MDGs ThroughDomestic Resource Mobilization DESA WorkingPaper 36 New York United Nations

Wada Na Todo Abhiyan 2007Measuring Indiarsquosprogress on the MDGs A Citizenrsquos ReportNew Delhi

Warr P 2005 lsquoFood Policy and Poverty inIndonesia A general equilibrium analysisrsquoAustralian Journal of Agriculture and ResourceEconomics Vol 49 (4) pp 429-451

Weigand Christine 2008 Levels and Patterns ofSafety Net Spending in Developing and TransitionCountries Social Protection Discussion Paper 0817

Welfare Monitoring Survey Report 2006 MOFEDAddis Ababa Ethiopia

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World Bank Participatory Monitoring andEvaluation (wwwworldbankorg)

World BankWorld Development Indicators

World Bank 2007aWorld Development Indicators2007 online resource Washington DC[httpgoworldbankorgIW6ZUUHUZ0]August 2008

World Bank 2007b Fiscal Policy for Growth andDevelopment Further analysis and lessons fromcountry case studies Paper prepared for theDevelopment Committee of the World Bankand IMF The World Bank Washington DC

World Bank 1997 Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe Priority Reconstruction Program FromEmergency to Sustainability 3 volumes EuropeanCommission (EC) and the Central EuropeDepartment of the World BankWashington DC

World Development Report 2008 AgricultureDevelopment The World Bank Washington DC

World Food Programme 2009 Ghana websitehttpwwwwfporgnode3467

156


BEYOND THE MIDPOINT




BEYONDTHE MIDPOINT

BE

YO

ND

TH

E M

IDP

OIN

T A

CH

IEV

ING

TH

E M

ILL

EN

NIU

M D

EV

EL

OP

ME

NT

GO

AL

S


Sales E09IIIB38 ISBN 978-92-1-126271-1


Beyond the Midpoint Achieving the Millennium Development Goals

January 2010

UNDP is the UNs global development network advocating forchange and connecting countries to knowledge experienceand resources to help people build a better life The views and recommendations expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of theUnited Nations or UNDP

Copyright copy UNDP 2010All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of America

United Nations Development ProgrammeOne United Nations Plaza New York NY 10017 USA

Design Suazion Inc (NY suazioncom)Production Consolidated Graphics (OH cgxcom)



BEYOND THEMIDPOINT







FOREWORD

UN PhotoFardin Waez












CONTENTS




Introduction 1







Country Profiles 96

Annexes 128

References 150




















EU - European Union




















NA - Not Available



































vi













ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

UNPhotoFredNoy











x

















xii

UNPhotoTim

McKulka


























xiv











INTRODUCTION

UNPhotoTim

McKulka










2













SenegalSierra Leone



Timor-LesteVanuatu

BahrainIraq

MoroccoSyriaYemen












4

UNPhotoMarieFrechon




















CHAPTER ONE










8

















































10




























12


9 In 2005 prices




MDG-2Education

MDG-3GenderEquality

MDG-4ChildMortality

MDG-5MaternalHealth



Albania

Armenia


Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador




Indonesia


Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan

Lao PDR

Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo


Yemen















14




Mozambique 40

Sierra Leone 33

Colombia 285

Bangladesh 29

Timor-Leste 31










7

8

9

10

11

12

SourceWorld Bank


1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

30

40

50

60

70

SourceWorld Bank


1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

Goal

Actual

Goal

Actual








16

0102030405060708090

100



0

20

40

60

80

100



1997 2003 2007 2010 2015

Completion

Enrollment



1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007






EthiopianIndicator

Base Level(1990)

MDGTarget(2015)

199596 200001 200405 200607(or most recent)


190 63 - 167(200102)

123 -


123(199293)

- - 97(200102)

77 -


- - 42(200102)

61 65


14 - 59 47 70 73

SourceMoFED 2008




80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

DPT3 Measles

1992ndash1993

1999ndash2000

2003ndash2004

2006ndash2007




0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Lead

Copper

Co ee (Robusta)

Oil (crude)

Iron ore

Palm oil

Gold

Fish meal

Groundnut oil

Aluminum

Maize

Cocoa

Phosphate (rock)

Logs Cameroon

Cotton


Sugar (free market)

Banana

Tobacco













UNPhotoLogan

Abassi








20










Source UN 2009b

UNPhotoTim

McKulka





CHAPTER TWO










24







1995-200714


Growth1995-200715




Gini(mid90s)17

Gini(mid00s)17

changeGini

Albania 59 57 25 19 27 0282 0330 17

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23


Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

India 69 56 36 28 22 NA 0368 NA

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA


Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Morocco 38 28 15 9 40 0395 0410 4

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4320 39 34 13 0340 0350 3


Togo 36 3822 7223 62 14 NA 0340 NA


Yemen 52 3224 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 45 35 22 0398 0400 1





19 1998-2004

20 1995-2006

21 2000-2007

22 1995-2005

23 1990

24 1995-2003









1 3 5 7 9 11


late

90sto

mid

00s(

)





80

60

40

20

0

ndash20

ndash40

ndash60

y = 08557x + 01738












0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percentchan

gein

Gini()



30

20

10

0

ndash10

ndash20

ndash30

ndash40

ndash50

y = ndash02298x + 00171

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

InitialLevelofIneq

uality(Gini1990s)



0700

0600

0500

0400

0300

0200

0100

0000

y = ndash16043x + 05022




Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Average 55 69 306





Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Average 45 425 218









Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Ethiopia 65 71 46 39 15 0400 0300 - 25

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32


Togo 36 3832 72^ 62 14 NA NA NA


Yemen 52 3233 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 52 (53) 44 (45) 15 (15) 0420 0390 - 3


32 1995-2005

33 1995-2003







30


Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini


Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA


Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Yemen 52 32 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 47 39 39 3 95 0483 0483 0




36 1995-2005

37 1998-2004






Bahrain -61 -2 +70

Colombia -44 -28 +5


Iraq38 -15 -5 +41

Syria -36 -20 +04

Yemen -53 -26 +67

Average -55 -19 +34



Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4339 39 34 13 0340 0350 3

Average 52 53 48 34 29 0441(0417)

0363 - 13


38 1998-2004

39 1995-2006




32

























34

























36







UNPhotoFredNoy








38




















40



























42








1995-2007


Gini(mid 00s)

UnemploymentRate43

YouthUnemployment43


Bangladesh 54 22 0334 4 7 85

Botswana 63 36 0605 19 40 14

Cambodia 85 3 0417 2 12 84

Colombia 35 23 0586 11 15 43

El Salvador 32 27 0524 7 12 36

Ethiopia 65 15 0300 5 8 91

Ghana 48 30 0408 10 16 NA

India 69 22 0368 5 10 NA

Indonesia 38 0 0343 11 29 63

Kyrgyzstan 41 72 0303 9 15 50


Morocco 38 40 0395 11 16 58

Tanzania 56 13 0346 5 NA 88

Average 50 23 0400 87 167 61












44


Total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

World 63 64 62 63 64 65 64 63 60 57


124 127 108 103 101 101 99 94 91 84

East Asia 47 47 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 43


48 51 50 58 60 62 64 64 60 54

South Asia 41 44 46 46 46 47 53 53 52 50


84 87 86 89 91 91 85 81 74 71

Middle East 106 100 95 109 108 121 92 98 101 95

North Africa 128 133 141 136 134 131 123 115 105 106


Source ILO 2009b


















Capacity Conundrums


CHAPTER THREE


UNPhotoNayan

Tara













Political Stability


Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law





























50












UNPhotoW

FP







52


























54






Source Pratham 2008










































UNPhotoLogan

Abassi


The Economic Costs



CHAPTER FOUR










Human costs


Health costs


60








Industrialized

countries

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

Guatem

ala

Timor-Leste

World

Developingcountries

PapuaNew

Guinea

Haiti

CongoDem

Repofthe

CocirctedIvoire

Nepal

LeastDeveloped

Countries

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Burundi

Congo

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Rwanda

Angola

Afghanistan

SierraLeone

Deathsper

100000liv

ebirths

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ofbirth

satten

ded

byskilled

staff








62

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80


GeorgiaGuatemala



Timor-LesteHaiti




RwandaGuinea-Bissau

CongoLiberia


Angola



1970 1990 2006

Years






0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500


IraqBurmaSudan



EritreaAngola

ChinaLiberiaButan

MoroccoSri Lanka

NepalRwanda

ChadEthiopia


Croatia

Number of refugees














Source Rashid 2009



















66




Decline in output



-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire











68

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire


















Capital flight




70






































72


















74




















UNPhotoRogerLemoyne

Financing the MDGs

Aid Effectiveness


Fiscal Space


CHAPTER FIVE






3

6

9

12



1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Year

PercentofGDP










LDCs

Bangladesh 22

Cambodia 85 (2006)

Ethiopia 81 (2002)

Lao PDR 90

Malawi NA

Mozambique NA

Nepal 34 (2005)

Senegal 59 (2001)


Timor-Leste NA

Togo 28

Vanuatu 70 (1999)

Yemen 28 (1999)


Bahrain 2 (2004)

Botswana 5 (1996)

Colombia 1

El Salvador 22

Ghana 26

India 1

Indonesia 5 (2003)

Iraq NA

Jamaica 0

Mongolia 23

Morocco 5

Syria NA

Tanzania NA


Albania 18 (2004)

Armenia 23

Kyrgyzstan 40


Average 375









80













































82






























84







0

10

20

30

40

50

60




1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07


Year

PercentofGDP













86












CHAPTER SIX


UNPhotoMarco

Dorm

ino













90

















92



























94










COUNTRY PROFILES

Albania

Armenia

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador

Ethiopia

Ghana

India

Indonesia

Iraq

Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan


Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo

Vanuatu

Yemen


ALBANIA













ARMENIA














BAHRAIN












BANGLADESH















BOTSWANA




















CAMBODIA














COLOMBIA















EL SALVADOR











ETHIOPIA
















GHANA



















INDIA
















INDONESIA











IRAQ











JAMAICA










KYRGYZSTAN
































MALAWI













MONGOLIA














MOROCCO















MOZAMBIQUE













National Programmes





NEPAL

















SENEGAL
















SIERRA LEONE















SYRIA















TAJIKISTAN
















TANZANIA













TIMOR-LESTE














TOGO














VANUATU




















YEMEN














ANNEXES








References





















130





















































































Europe and the CIS































Arab States





































































Africa






















(no change)











































































Gini57(mid 90s)

Gini57(mid 00s)

Albania 25 (2002) 19 (2005) 0282 (1997) 0330 (2005)

Armenia 50 (1999) 25 (2007) 0440 (1996) 0338 (2003)

Bahrain NA NA NA NA

Bangladesh 51 (1996) 40 (2005) 0318 (1996) 0318 (2005)

Botswana 47 (1994) 30 (2003) 0610 (1995) NA

Cambodia 36 (1997WDI) 35 (2004WDI) 0380 (1994) 0417 (2004)

Colombia 60 (1995WDI) 46 (2005) 0576 (1995) 0586 (2006)


Ethiopia 46 (1996) 38 (2005) 0400 (1995) 0300 (2005)

Ghana 40 (1999) 28 (2006) 0410 (1998) 0430 (2006)

India 36 (1994) 28 (2005) NA 0368 (2005)

Indonesia 15 (1995) 15 (2008) NA 0390 (2005)

Iraq NA NA NA NA

Kyrgyzstan 25 (2001) 7 (2007) 0540 (1993) 0330 (2004)

Lao PDR 39 (1998WDI) 33 (2003WDI) 0350 (1997) 0330 (2003)

Malawi 54 (1990) 40 (2007) 0503 (1998) 0390 (2004)

Mongolia 36 (1995WDI) 35 (2007) 0330 (1995) 0330 (2005)

Morocco 15 (2001) 9 (2007) 0395 (1999) 0410 (2007)

Mozambique 69 (1997) 54 (2003) 0440 (1997) 0473 (2003)

Nepal 42 (1996) 31 (2004) 0380 (1996) 0472 (2004)

Senegal 57 (2000) 51 (2005) 0413 (1995) 0390 (2005)

Sierra Leone 70 (2003) 66 (2007) 0629 (1990) 0430 (2003)

Syria 14 (1997) 12 (2004) NA NA

Tajikistan 87 (1999) 41 (2007) 0320 (1999) 0340 (2004)

Tanzania 39 (1991WDI) 34 (2004) 0340 (1992) 0350 (2000)

Timor-Leste 36 (2001) 50 (2007) NA NA

Togo 72 (1990) 62 (2006) NA 0340 (2006)

Vanuatu 40 (1998) 16 (2008) NA NA

Average 45 35 0398 0400










144










































146

























148









and Bangladesh)







































150

REFERENCES

























































152



























































154




























































156


BEYOND THE MIDPOINT




BEYONDTHE MIDPOINT

BE

YO

ND

TH

E M

IDP

OIN

T A

CH

IEV

ING

TH

E M

ILL

EN

NIU

M D

EV

EL

OP

ME

NT

GO

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S


Sales E09IIIB38 ISBN 978-92-1-126271-1



BEYOND THEMIDPOINT







FOREWORD

UN PhotoFardin Waez












CONTENTS




Introduction 1







Country Profiles 96

Annexes 128

References 150




















EU - European Union




















NA - Not Available



































vi













ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

UNPhotoFredNoy











x

















xii

UNPhotoTim

McKulka


























xiv











INTRODUCTION

UNPhotoTim

McKulka










2













SenegalSierra Leone



Timor-LesteVanuatu

BahrainIraq

MoroccoSyriaYemen












4

UNPhotoMarieFrechon




















CHAPTER ONE










8

















































10




























12


9 In 2005 prices




MDG-2Education

MDG-3GenderEquality

MDG-4ChildMortality

MDG-5MaternalHealth



Albania

Armenia


Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador




Indonesia


Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan

Lao PDR

Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo


Yemen















14




Mozambique 40

Sierra Leone 33

Colombia 285

Bangladesh 29

Timor-Leste 31










7

8

9

10

11

12

SourceWorld Bank


1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

30

40

50

60

70

SourceWorld Bank


1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

Goal

Actual

Goal

Actual








16

0102030405060708090

100



0

20

40

60

80

100



1997 2003 2007 2010 2015

Completion

Enrollment



1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007






EthiopianIndicator

Base Level(1990)

MDGTarget(2015)

199596 200001 200405 200607(or most recent)


190 63 - 167(200102)

123 -


123(199293)

- - 97(200102)

77 -


- - 42(200102)

61 65


14 - 59 47 70 73

SourceMoFED 2008




80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

DPT3 Measles

1992ndash1993

1999ndash2000

2003ndash2004

2006ndash2007




0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Lead

Copper

Co ee (Robusta)

Oil (crude)

Iron ore

Palm oil

Gold

Fish meal

Groundnut oil

Aluminum

Maize

Cocoa

Phosphate (rock)

Logs Cameroon

Cotton


Sugar (free market)

Banana

Tobacco













UNPhotoLogan

Abassi








20










Source UN 2009b

UNPhotoTim

McKulka





CHAPTER TWO










24







1995-200714


Growth1995-200715




Gini(mid90s)17

Gini(mid00s)17

changeGini

Albania 59 57 25 19 27 0282 0330 17

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23


Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

India 69 56 36 28 22 NA 0368 NA

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA


Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Morocco 38 28 15 9 40 0395 0410 4

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4320 39 34 13 0340 0350 3


Togo 36 3822 7223 62 14 NA 0340 NA


Yemen 52 3224 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 45 35 22 0398 0400 1





19 1998-2004

20 1995-2006

21 2000-2007

22 1995-2005

23 1990

24 1995-2003









1 3 5 7 9 11


late

90sto

mid

00s(

)





80

60

40

20

0

ndash20

ndash40

ndash60

y = 08557x + 01738












0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percentchan

gein

Gini()



30

20

10

0

ndash10

ndash20

ndash30

ndash40

ndash50

y = ndash02298x + 00171

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

InitialLevelofIneq

uality(Gini1990s)



0700

0600

0500

0400

0300

0200

0100

0000

y = ndash16043x + 05022




Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Average 55 69 306





Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Average 45 425 218









Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Ethiopia 65 71 46 39 15 0400 0300 - 25

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32


Togo 36 3832 72^ 62 14 NA NA NA


Yemen 52 3233 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 52 (53) 44 (45) 15 (15) 0420 0390 - 3


32 1995-2005

33 1995-2003







30


Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini


Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA


Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Yemen 52 32 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 47 39 39 3 95 0483 0483 0




36 1995-2005

37 1998-2004






Bahrain -61 -2 +70

Colombia -44 -28 +5


Iraq38 -15 -5 +41

Syria -36 -20 +04

Yemen -53 -26 +67

Average -55 -19 +34



Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4339 39 34 13 0340 0350 3

Average 52 53 48 34 29 0441(0417)

0363 - 13


38 1998-2004

39 1995-2006




32

























34

























36







UNPhotoFredNoy








38




















40



























42








1995-2007


Gini(mid 00s)

UnemploymentRate43

YouthUnemployment43


Bangladesh 54 22 0334 4 7 85

Botswana 63 36 0605 19 40 14

Cambodia 85 3 0417 2 12 84

Colombia 35 23 0586 11 15 43

El Salvador 32 27 0524 7 12 36

Ethiopia 65 15 0300 5 8 91

Ghana 48 30 0408 10 16 NA

India 69 22 0368 5 10 NA

Indonesia 38 0 0343 11 29 63

Kyrgyzstan 41 72 0303 9 15 50


Morocco 38 40 0395 11 16 58

Tanzania 56 13 0346 5 NA 88

Average 50 23 0400 87 167 61












44


Total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

World 63 64 62 63 64 65 64 63 60 57


124 127 108 103 101 101 99 94 91 84

East Asia 47 47 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 43


48 51 50 58 60 62 64 64 60 54

South Asia 41 44 46 46 46 47 53 53 52 50


84 87 86 89 91 91 85 81 74 71

Middle East 106 100 95 109 108 121 92 98 101 95

North Africa 128 133 141 136 134 131 123 115 105 106


Source ILO 2009b


















Capacity Conundrums


CHAPTER THREE


UNPhotoNayan

Tara













Political Stability


Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law





























50












UNPhotoW

FP







52


























54






Source Pratham 2008










































UNPhotoLogan

Abassi


The Economic Costs



CHAPTER FOUR










Human costs


Health costs


60








Industrialized

countries

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

Guatem

ala

Timor-Leste

World

Developingcountries

PapuaNew

Guinea

Haiti

CongoDem

Repofthe

CocirctedIvoire

Nepal

LeastDeveloped

Countries

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Burundi

Congo

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Rwanda

Angola

Afghanistan

SierraLeone

Deathsper

100000liv

ebirths

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ofbirth

satten

ded

byskilled

staff








62

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80


GeorgiaGuatemala



Timor-LesteHaiti




RwandaGuinea-Bissau

CongoLiberia


Angola



1970 1990 2006

Years






0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500


IraqBurmaSudan



EritreaAngola

ChinaLiberiaButan

MoroccoSri Lanka

NepalRwanda

ChadEthiopia


Croatia

Number of refugees














Source Rashid 2009



















66




Decline in output



-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire











68

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire


















Capital flight




70






































72


















74




















UNPhotoRogerLemoyne

Financing the MDGs

Aid Effectiveness


Fiscal Space


CHAPTER FIVE






3

6

9

12



1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Year

PercentofGDP










LDCs

Bangladesh 22

Cambodia 85 (2006)

Ethiopia 81 (2002)

Lao PDR 90

Malawi NA

Mozambique NA

Nepal 34 (2005)

Senegal 59 (2001)


Timor-Leste NA

Togo 28

Vanuatu 70 (1999)

Yemen 28 (1999)


Bahrain 2 (2004)

Botswana 5 (1996)

Colombia 1

El Salvador 22

Ghana 26

India 1

Indonesia 5 (2003)

Iraq NA

Jamaica 0

Mongolia 23

Morocco 5

Syria NA

Tanzania NA


Albania 18 (2004)

Armenia 23

Kyrgyzstan 40


Average 375









80













































82






























84







0

10

20

30

40

50

60




1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07


Year

PercentofGDP













86












CHAPTER SIX


UNPhotoMarco

Dorm

ino













90

















92



























94










COUNTRY PROFILES

Albania

Armenia

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador

Ethiopia

Ghana

India

Indonesia

Iraq

Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan


Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo

Vanuatu

Yemen


ALBANIA













ARMENIA














BAHRAIN












BANGLADESH















BOTSWANA




















CAMBODIA














COLOMBIA















EL SALVADOR











ETHIOPIA
















GHANA



















INDIA
















INDONESIA











IRAQ











JAMAICA










KYRGYZSTAN
































MALAWI













MONGOLIA














MOROCCO















MOZAMBIQUE













National Programmes





NEPAL

















SENEGAL
















SIERRA LEONE















SYRIA















TAJIKISTAN
















TANZANIA













TIMOR-LESTE














TOGO














VANUATU




















YEMEN














ANNEXES








References





















130





















































































Europe and the CIS































Arab States





































































Africa






















(no change)











































































Gini57(mid 90s)

Gini57(mid 00s)

Albania 25 (2002) 19 (2005) 0282 (1997) 0330 (2005)

Armenia 50 (1999) 25 (2007) 0440 (1996) 0338 (2003)

Bahrain NA NA NA NA

Bangladesh 51 (1996) 40 (2005) 0318 (1996) 0318 (2005)

Botswana 47 (1994) 30 (2003) 0610 (1995) NA

Cambodia 36 (1997WDI) 35 (2004WDI) 0380 (1994) 0417 (2004)

Colombia 60 (1995WDI) 46 (2005) 0576 (1995) 0586 (2006)


Ethiopia 46 (1996) 38 (2005) 0400 (1995) 0300 (2005)

Ghana 40 (1999) 28 (2006) 0410 (1998) 0430 (2006)

India 36 (1994) 28 (2005) NA 0368 (2005)

Indonesia 15 (1995) 15 (2008) NA 0390 (2005)

Iraq NA NA NA NA

Kyrgyzstan 25 (2001) 7 (2007) 0540 (1993) 0330 (2004)

Lao PDR 39 (1998WDI) 33 (2003WDI) 0350 (1997) 0330 (2003)

Malawi 54 (1990) 40 (2007) 0503 (1998) 0390 (2004)

Mongolia 36 (1995WDI) 35 (2007) 0330 (1995) 0330 (2005)

Morocco 15 (2001) 9 (2007) 0395 (1999) 0410 (2007)

Mozambique 69 (1997) 54 (2003) 0440 (1997) 0473 (2003)

Nepal 42 (1996) 31 (2004) 0380 (1996) 0472 (2004)

Senegal 57 (2000) 51 (2005) 0413 (1995) 0390 (2005)

Sierra Leone 70 (2003) 66 (2007) 0629 (1990) 0430 (2003)

Syria 14 (1997) 12 (2004) NA NA

Tajikistan 87 (1999) 41 (2007) 0320 (1999) 0340 (2004)

Tanzania 39 (1991WDI) 34 (2004) 0340 (1992) 0350 (2000)

Timor-Leste 36 (2001) 50 (2007) NA NA

Togo 72 (1990) 62 (2006) NA 0340 (2006)

Vanuatu 40 (1998) 16 (2008) NA NA

Average 45 35 0398 0400










144










































146

























148









and Bangladesh)







































150

REFERENCES

























































152



























































154




























































156


BEYOND THE MIDPOINT




BEYONDTHE MIDPOINT

BE

YO

ND

TH

E M

IDP

OIN

T A

CH

IEV

ING

TH

E M

ILL

EN

NIU

M D

EV

EL

OP

ME

NT

GO

AL

S


Sales E09IIIB38 ISBN 978-92-1-126271-1






FOREWORD

UN PhotoFardin Waez












CONTENTS




Introduction 1







Country Profiles 96

Annexes 128

References 150




















EU - European Union




















NA - Not Available



































vi













ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

UNPhotoFredNoy











x

















xii

UNPhotoTim

McKulka


























xiv











INTRODUCTION

UNPhotoTim

McKulka










2













SenegalSierra Leone



Timor-LesteVanuatu

BahrainIraq

MoroccoSyriaYemen












4

UNPhotoMarieFrechon




















CHAPTER ONE










8

















































10




























12


9 In 2005 prices




MDG-2Education

MDG-3GenderEquality

MDG-4ChildMortality

MDG-5MaternalHealth



Albania

Armenia


Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador




Indonesia


Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan

Lao PDR

Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo


Yemen















14




Mozambique 40

Sierra Leone 33

Colombia 285

Bangladesh 29

Timor-Leste 31










7

8

9

10

11

12

SourceWorld Bank


1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

30

40

50

60

70

SourceWorld Bank


1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

Goal

Actual

Goal

Actual








16

0102030405060708090

100



0

20

40

60

80

100



1997 2003 2007 2010 2015

Completion

Enrollment



1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007






EthiopianIndicator

Base Level(1990)

MDGTarget(2015)

199596 200001 200405 200607(or most recent)


190 63 - 167(200102)

123 -


123(199293)

- - 97(200102)

77 -


- - 42(200102)

61 65


14 - 59 47 70 73

SourceMoFED 2008




80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

DPT3 Measles

1992ndash1993

1999ndash2000

2003ndash2004

2006ndash2007




0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Lead

Copper

Co ee (Robusta)

Oil (crude)

Iron ore

Palm oil

Gold

Fish meal

Groundnut oil

Aluminum

Maize

Cocoa

Phosphate (rock)

Logs Cameroon

Cotton


Sugar (free market)

Banana

Tobacco













UNPhotoLogan

Abassi








20










Source UN 2009b

UNPhotoTim

McKulka





CHAPTER TWO










24







1995-200714


Growth1995-200715




Gini(mid90s)17

Gini(mid00s)17

changeGini

Albania 59 57 25 19 27 0282 0330 17

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23


Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

India 69 56 36 28 22 NA 0368 NA

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA


Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Morocco 38 28 15 9 40 0395 0410 4

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4320 39 34 13 0340 0350 3


Togo 36 3822 7223 62 14 NA 0340 NA


Yemen 52 3224 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 45 35 22 0398 0400 1





19 1998-2004

20 1995-2006

21 2000-2007

22 1995-2005

23 1990

24 1995-2003









1 3 5 7 9 11


late

90sto

mid

00s(

)





80

60

40

20

0

ndash20

ndash40

ndash60

y = 08557x + 01738












0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percentchan

gein

Gini()



30

20

10

0

ndash10

ndash20

ndash30

ndash40

ndash50

y = ndash02298x + 00171

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

InitialLevelofIneq

uality(Gini1990s)



0700

0600

0500

0400

0300

0200

0100

0000

y = ndash16043x + 05022




Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Armenia 92 74 50 25 50 0440 0338 - 23

Ethiopia 65 71 46 38 15 0400 0300 - 25

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Average 55 69 306





Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


Growth1995-2007

PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


to mid 00s)

Gini(mid90s)

Gini(mid00s)

changeGini

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

El Salvador 32 38 51 37 27 0500 0500 0

Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Average 45 425 218









Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Bangladesh 54 35 51 40 22 0318 0318 0

Cambodia 85 72 36 35 3 0380 0417 10

Ethiopia 65 71 46 39 15 0400 0300 - 25

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Malawi 45 67 54 40 26 0503 0390 - 22

Mozambique 76 63 69 54 22 0440 0473 8

Nepal 38 NA 42 31 26 0380 0472 24

Senegal 44 41 57 51 11 0413 0390 - 6

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32


Togo 36 3832 72^ 62 14 NA NA NA


Yemen 52 3233 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 50 50 52 (53) 44 (45) 15 (15) 0420 0390 - 3


32 1995-2005

33 1995-2003







30


Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini


Colombia 35 28 60 46 23 0576 0586 2

Indonesia 38 46 15 15 0 NA 0390 NA


Syria 39 49 14 12 7 NA NA NA

Yemen 52 32 65 60 8 0390 0380 - 3

Average 47 39 39 3 95 0483 0483 0




36 1995-2005

37 1998-2004






Bahrain -61 -2 +70

Colombia -44 -28 +5


Iraq38 -15 -5 +41

Syria -36 -20 +04

Yemen -53 -26 +67

Average -55 -19 +34



Country GDPGrowth

1995-2007


PovertyRate

(late 90s)

PovertyRate

(mid 00s)


Gini(mid 90s)

Gini(mid 00s)

changeGini

Botswana 63 40 47 30 36 0610 NA NA

Ghana 48 42 40 28 30 0410 0430 49

Kyrgyzstan 41 62 25 7 72 0540 0330 - 39

Lao PDR 65 27 39 33 15 0350 0330 - 6

Mongolia 55 NA 36 35 1 0330 0330 0

Sierra Leone 45 NA 70 66 6 0629 0430 - 32

Tajikistan 40 102 87 41 53 0320 0340 6

Tanzania 56 4339 39 34 13 0340 0350 3

Average 52 53 48 34 29 0441(0417)

0363 - 13


38 1998-2004

39 1995-2006




32

























34

























36







UNPhotoFredNoy








38




















40



























42








1995-2007


Gini(mid 00s)

UnemploymentRate43

YouthUnemployment43


Bangladesh 54 22 0334 4 7 85

Botswana 63 36 0605 19 40 14

Cambodia 85 3 0417 2 12 84

Colombia 35 23 0586 11 15 43

El Salvador 32 27 0524 7 12 36

Ethiopia 65 15 0300 5 8 91

Ghana 48 30 0408 10 16 NA

India 69 22 0368 5 10 NA

Indonesia 38 0 0343 11 29 63

Kyrgyzstan 41 72 0303 9 15 50


Morocco 38 40 0395 11 16 58

Tanzania 56 13 0346 5 NA 88

Average 50 23 0400 87 167 61












44


Total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

World 63 64 62 63 64 65 64 63 60 57


124 127 108 103 101 101 99 94 91 84

East Asia 47 47 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 43


48 51 50 58 60 62 64 64 60 54

South Asia 41 44 46 46 46 47 53 53 52 50


84 87 86 89 91 91 85 81 74 71

Middle East 106 100 95 109 108 121 92 98 101 95

North Africa 128 133 141 136 134 131 123 115 105 106


Source ILO 2009b


















Capacity Conundrums


CHAPTER THREE


UNPhotoNayan

Tara













Political Stability


Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law





























50












UNPhotoW

FP







52


























54






Source Pratham 2008










































UNPhotoLogan

Abassi


The Economic Costs



CHAPTER FOUR










Human costs


Health costs


60








Industrialized

countries

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

Guatem

ala

Timor-Leste

World

Developingcountries

PapuaNew

Guinea

Haiti

CongoDem

Repofthe

CocirctedIvoire

Nepal

LeastDeveloped

Countries

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Burundi

Congo

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Rwanda

Angola

Afghanistan

SierraLeone

Deathsper

100000liv

ebirths

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ofbirth

satten

ded

byskilled

staff








62

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80


GeorgiaGuatemala



Timor-LesteHaiti




RwandaGuinea-Bissau

CongoLiberia


Angola



1970 1990 2006

Years






0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500


IraqBurmaSudan



EritreaAngola

ChinaLiberiaButan

MoroccoSri Lanka

NepalRwanda

ChadEthiopia


Croatia

Number of refugees














Source Rashid 2009



















66




Decline in output



-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire











68

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

GuatemalaAngola

ChadAfghanistan

CambodiaEritrea

EthiopiaNamibia

MozambiqueLebanon

LiberiaNicaragua



CongoTajikistan


RwandaGeorgia



Cocircte dIvoire


















Capital flight




70






































72


















74




















UNPhotoRogerLemoyne

Financing the MDGs

Aid Effectiveness


Fiscal Space


CHAPTER FIVE






3

6

9

12



1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Year

PercentofGDP










LDCs

Bangladesh 22

Cambodia 85 (2006)

Ethiopia 81 (2002)

Lao PDR 90

Malawi NA

Mozambique NA

Nepal 34 (2005)

Senegal 59 (2001)


Timor-Leste NA

Togo 28

Vanuatu 70 (1999)

Yemen 28 (1999)


Bahrain 2 (2004)

Botswana 5 (1996)

Colombia 1

El Salvador 22

Ghana 26

India 1

Indonesia 5 (2003)

Iraq NA

Jamaica 0

Mongolia 23

Morocco 5

Syria NA

Tanzania NA


Albania 18 (2004)

Armenia 23

Kyrgyzstan 40


Average 375









80













































82






























84







0

10

20

30

40

50

60




1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07


Year

PercentofGDP













86












CHAPTER SIX


UNPhotoMarco

Dorm

ino













90

















92



























94










COUNTRY PROFILES

Albania

Armenia

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Botswana

Cambodia

Colombia

El Salvador

Ethiopia

Ghana

India

Indonesia

Iraq

Jamaica

Kyrgyzstan


Malawi

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Nepal

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo

Vanuatu

Yemen


ALBANIA













ARMENIA














BAHRAIN












BANGLADESH















BOTSWANA




















CAMBODIA














COLOMBIA















EL SALVADOR











ETHIOPIA
















GHANA



















INDIA
















INDONESIA











IRAQ











JAMAICA










KYRGYZSTAN
































MALAWI













MONGOLIA














MOROCCO















MOZAMBIQUE













National Programmes





NEPAL

















SENEGAL
















SIERRA LEONE















SYRIA















TAJIKISTAN
















TANZANIA













TIMOR-LESTE














TOGO














VANUATU




















YEMEN














ANNEXES








References





















130





















































































Europe and the CIS































Arab States





































































Africa






















(no change)











































































Gini57(mid 90s)

Gini57(mid 00s)

Albania 25 (2002) 19 (2005) 0282 (1997) 0330 (2005)

Armenia 50 (1999) 25 (2007) 0440 (1996) 0338 (2003)

Bahrain NA NA NA NA

Bangladesh 51 (1996) 40 (2005) 0318 (1996) 0318 (2005)

Botswana 47 (1994) 30 (2003) 0610 (1995) NA

Cambodia 36 (1997WDI) 35 (2004WDI) 0380 (1994) 0417 (2004)

Colombia 60 (1995WDI) 46 (2005) 0576 (1995) 0586 (2006)


Ethiopia 46 (1996) 38 (2005) 0400 (1995) 0300 (2005)

Ghana 40 (1999) 28 (2006) 0410 (1998) 0430 (2006)

India 36 (1994) 28 (2005) NA 0368 (2005)

Indonesia 15 (1995) 15 (2008) NA 0390 (2005)

Iraq NA NA NA NA

Kyrgyzstan 25 (2001) 7 (2007) 0540 (1993) 0330 (2004)

Lao PDR 39 (1998WDI) 33 (2003WDI) 0350 (1997) 0330 (2003)

Malawi 54 (1990) 40 (2007) 0503 (1998) 0390 (2004)

Mongolia 36 (1995WDI) 35 (2007) 0330 (1995) 0330 (2005)

Morocco 15 (2001) 9 (2007) 0395 (1999) 0410 (2007)

Mozambique 69 (1997) 54 (2003) 0440 (1997) 0473 (2003)

Nepal 42 (1996) 31 (2004) 0380 (1996) 0472 (2004)

Senegal 57 (2000) 51 (2005) 0413 (1995) 0390 (2005)

Sierra Leone 70 (2003) 66 (2007) 0629 (1990) 0430 (2003)

Syria 14 (1997) 12 (2004) NA NA

Tajikistan 87 (1999) 41 (2007) 0320 (1999) 0340 (2004)

Tanzania 39 (1991WDI) 34 (2004) 0340 (1992) 0350 (2000)

Timor-Leste 36 (2001) 50 (2007) NA NA

Togo 72 (1990) 62 (2006) NA 0340 (2006)

Vanuatu 40 (1998) 16 (2008) NA NA

Average 45 35 0398 0400










144










































146

























148









and Bangladesh)







































150

REFERENCES

























































152



























































154




























































156


BEYOND THE MIDPOINT




BEYONDTHE MIDPOINT

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BEYOND THE MIDPOINT - Disabled Peoples · 2012. 3. 15. · ACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS BEYOND THE MIDPOINT United Nations Development Programme United Nations Development