Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands

Beyond the 2011 Census:meeting housing requirements

across the West Midlands

Demographic Change in the West Midlands

New Challenges in the new Millennium

Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Outline

• Step change in population growth 2001-2011• The household – population relationship• Changed geography of growth• Ageing – an ongoing story• Future uncertain?– Limitations of data and projections


2011 Census

• Confirmed that population growing rapidly• Found population was greater than expected• Implies past estimates of migration inaccurate• Most data yet to come– cross tabulations (tenure by age etc)– migration and commuting


1971-2001

• Limited population growth post baby boom– Background changes

• Age structure• Intergenerational succession

• Action elsewhere– Social, and household change– Policies - Right to Buy – Population explosion in cars– Collapse of mass manufacturing employment

• Counter-urbanisation


Population & Household GrowthWest Midlands 1971-2001


Drivers of Change?West Midlands Region


1971-2001Counter-urbanisation


2001-2011

• Take-off in population growth – International migration– More Births– Fewer Deaths

• Slowdown in household formation?• Changing geography of demographic trends


International

MigrationDifficult to•Define•MeasureBut•Clear change in order of magnitude since mid 1990s


Natural Change 1971-2011(England)


Population & Households West Midlands Region


2001-2011Metropolitan resurgence


Drivers of metropolitan surge

• International migration• More Births • Higher education boom• Reduced migration outflow?– Revised data awaited– Regeneration/city living/strategy?– Static housing market?


International

Migration•Census confirms immigration’s role in recent growth•Metropolitan focus•Revised data on flows awaited


National Insurance Numbers for overseas nationals 2010-11


More Births in the cities


Households & Population 2001-2011Geographical contrasts


Households past & projected growth


Age Changes 2001-2011


2011 -Interim Population Projections – bewareBase population updated in light of Census

Unrevised migration, birth and death rates (same as 2010-based)

ONS have issued health warnings

Paradoxical local results :e.g. Birmingham


Conclusions• Take-off in population growth since 2001

• Shift in geography of pressure to metropolitan

• Population growth outstrips household growth for first time in decades

• Slowdown in propensity to form households

• Geographical differences in age structuresGreg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Documents

Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands