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BEYOND NO REGRETS
Kyle A. Poyar2008 Ernest F. Hollings Scholar
Candidate for A.B. in Environmental StudiesPresentation to Theories in Action: May 1, 2010
Contact: [email protected]
// assessing the economic efficiency of climate adaptation in Rhode Island //
Climate Change in the U.S.
“… unequivocal…”
“… occurring now…”
- U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009)
Adaptation to Climate Change
Moving Beyond No Regrets
Evaluation Criterion
Working Definition Example
No regrets Provides benefits with or without climate change (‘win-win’)
Restrict new development in areas already vulnerable to flooding
Equity Fair distribution of benefits (or losses)
Locate cooling/relief centers nearlow-income populations
Economic efficiency
Fiscal benefits exceed costs
Subsidize air-conditioning for the low-income elderly
Adapted from Poyar and Beller-Simms, 2009.
My Project
How could one apply economic methods to climate change adaptation policy?
How much will climate change-induced heat waves and hurricanes cost RI in $ terms?
When would adaptation be cost-effective?
Key Considerations
Net Present Value
Discount Rate
3%
Value of Human Life
$6.9 million per life
Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Human Health
Urban Heat Island Effect
2003 European Heat Wave Kills 25,000
Heat Deaths in Rhode Island from 2007-2070
Emissions
Scenario
Heat
Deaths
Expected
Annual Heat
Deaths
Extra Deaths
from Climate
Change
High Emissions 3,053 48 2,232
Low Emissions 2,276 36 1,454
Costs of Extreme Heat from 2007-2070
Emissions
Scenario
Cost
(3% D.R.)
Cost
(1.4% D.R.)
Cost
(4.3% D.R.)
High Emissions $4.75 Billion $8.75 Billion $3.2 Billion
Low Emissions $3.1 Billion $5.7 Billion $2.1 Billion
Hurricanes and R.I.
New England Hurricane of 1938
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
2012
2015
2018
202
1
202
4
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
204
2
204
5
204
8
2051
2054
2057
206
0
206
3
206
6
206
9
Expected Annual Hurricane Damages in RI, 2007-2070
Hurricane Damages (High Emissions) Hurricane Damages (Low Emissions)
Hurricane Damages (without Climate Change)
Emissions Scenario Average Annual Cost Cost (% of 2007 RI GDP)
High Emissions $312 Million 0.66%
Low Emissions $252 Million 0.54%
Hurricanes and Economic Risk
Adaptation Options
Heat Waves
Air-Conditioning
Warning and Alert Systems
Urban Forestry
Hurricanes
Relocation
Strengthen buildings
Hurricane barriers
Preparedness , Evacuation
Cost-Benefit of Adaptation Policies
Net Present Value of Adaptation Low Emissions High Emissions
Subsidize Air-Conditioners (Elderly) $75.1 million $95.5 million
Subsidize Air-Conditioners (All Ages) $128.4 million $176.8 million
Heat Warning and Alert System $610 million $791 million
Rebuild Fox Pt. Hurricane Barrier $1,470 million $1,750 million
Implementing Climate Adaptation
Adaptation Options
Heat Waves
Air-Conditioning
Warning and Alert Systems
Urban Forestry
Hurricanes
Relocation
Strengthen buildings
Hurricane barriers
Preparedness , Evacuation
The Case for Urban Forestry
Federal Funding
Years Value of Emissions Permits (EPA)
Percentage of Funds for U.S. Adaptation
Annual Funding for U.S. Adaptation
2012-2021 $60 billion 2% $1.2 billion
2022-2026 $113 billion 4% $4.5 billion
2027-2050 > $113 billion 8% > $9 billion
Climate Risk Reduction Act
Conclusions
Adaptation to heat waves and hurricanes can be
justified on cost-effectiveness grounds
Cost-benefit analyses can support projects with substantial benefits to vulnerable populations
Rhode Island should start taking bold adaptation action today
THANK YOU!
J. Timmons Roberts, Brown University
Sri Nagavarapu, Brown University
Nancy Beller-Simms, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Gordon Sparks, University of Saskatchewan
Josh Foster, Center for Clean Air Policy
Ivo Welch, Brown University
Kurt Teichert, Brown University
Fellow CES Students and ENV 201 Classmates
Discussion
What needs to happen (e.g. public awareness) for adaptation to move forward?
Discussion
To what extent should adaptation be a local, state, versus national issue?
Discussion
How can Brown students become more engaged in climate adaptation (policy and research)?
Discussion
Is cost-benefit analysis appropriate for climate change adaptation? What should be the role of equity, legitimacy, and other policy evaluation criteria?
