BC3 SAIC Adaptation Event 10-07-09

8/14/2019 BC3 SAIC Adaptation Event 10-07-09

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Be a leader. Be informed. Be a part ofBC3.The Business Council on Climate Change.

Climate AdaptationSteve Messner, SAIC

Steve Goldbeck, BCDC

7th

October 2009


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Agenda1. Introduction (BC3 and SAIC)

2. State Level Climate Adaptation Strategies (SAIC)

3. Regional Case Study: San Diego (SAIC)

4. Bay Area Climate Adaptation (BCDC)


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IntroductionWith climate change, there are two fundamental issues for

cities to address

1. Greenhouse gas emissions

mitigation strategies

2. Climate change impacts

adaptation strategies


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Importance of Adaptation Climate Change Impacts are already

occurring

Future climate impacts projected to beworse

Without adaptation, $2.5 trillion are atrisk

Opportunity to reduce risks and buildresilience

Adaptation is required under CEQA


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California Climate Adaptation Governors Executive Order S-13-08:

State Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS)

California Sea Level Rise Assessment Report Transportation systems vulnerability assessment

Californiahistorical andprojected Julytemperature

increase1961-2099

Source: Dan Cayan et al. 2009


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California Climate Adaptation (cont.) Decreasing California Snowpack


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California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) First state-wide, multi-sector, region-

specific info-based adaptationstrategy in the US

Led by CNRA under Climate ActionTeam

Six state agencies led 7 differentworking groups

Focused on Science, Strategy,Action

Strategies = What can be done byDecember 2010

Beginning of conversation, not end


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CAS Elements Adaptation story

Synthesis of statewide impacts fromlatest research

Outline key recommendations

Describe potential impacts on

sectors Provide sector-based adaptationstrategies


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CAS Key Recommendations Avoid significant new

development in high risk areas

Sector agencies develop

adaptation plans Develop Climate Adaptation

Advisory Panel

Implement CEQA = climate

impacts to projects

Adapt water management anduse for climate change

Identify most vulnerablecommunities and habitats(2010)

Offer guidance/tools for localcommunity planning

Identify wildfire risk areas (June

2010) Increase renewable energy

supply/efficiency

Make synthesized researchresults easily accessible

Provide guidance to localcommunities on assessing

ways to maintain/improve publichealth under climate change


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CAS Cross-Sector Strategies Improve emergency preparedness and response

Expand research and monitoring

Develop a statewide climate vulnerability assessment Develop a coordinated public outreach effort

Coordinate and centralize adaptation efforts

Provide tools to effectively guide local land use decisions


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CAS Strategy Example Water Management Regional water management

Fully implement Integrated Regional WaterManagement (IRWM)

Aggressively increase water use efficiency

Statewide water management

Flood management Ecosystem stewardship

Surface and groundwater storage

Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Decision-making capacity

Sustainable financing


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CAS Strategy Example Coastal Resources State policy to avoid future sea

level rise hazards

Decision guidance for dealingwith existing infrastructure anddevelopment and planning newprojects

Data and information support forlocal and state agencies

Continued state agency and

local planning


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CAS Strategy Coastal Resources)

Replacement value ofbuildings and contents

vulnerable to a100 year coastal floodwith 1.4 meters of sealevel rise

Source: Pacific Institute, 2009http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/maps/


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CAS Strategy Example Forestry Incorporate climate information into Resource

Management and Fire Protection programs

Improve capacity for long term and real-time risk andvulnerability assessments

Support local actions to address vulnerability and managefor resilience

Monitor forest health and adaptive management


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CAS Strategy Example Infrastructure Energy segment:

Increase Energy Efficiency inClimate Vulnerable Areas

Assess impacts from climatechange in siting and re-licensing ofnew energy facilities

Develop hydropower decision-support tools to better manageclimate change variability

Identify how state renewable

energy goals could be impacted byclimate impacts


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San Diego Climate & Adaptation Planning The San Diego Foundations Climate Initiative

Work with government, business, and the community at large to advance regionalefforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and reduce our vulnerability to some ofthe most harmful effects of climate change


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San Diego Carbon Footprint

www.sandiego.edu/epic/ghginventory


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San Diego GHG Mitigation Strategies


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San Diego uniquely at risk Enviable mild climate

70 miles of coastline

Exceptional combination of beaches, canyons, mountains,& deserts

Unique hot-spot for biodiversity, with many already

threatened species Severe existing wildfire conditions

International border with Tijuana

Reliance on imports for up to95% of our water needs


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San Diego Focus 2050 Study

To understand the unknowncosts and risks associated witha changing climate

To build sense of urgencyaround agreed upon set of facts

Primary Question:What will our region look like in 2050 due to climate

change, if current trends continue?(King County model)


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Approach Disaggregate California Data & Trends to County Level

Topics AddressedClimate change Electricity

Sea level rise Land use & Transportation

Water WildfiresPublic health Biodiversity & Habitat

Contributing Organizations Include

UCSD, SDSU, USD, UCSB, UCR Scripps Institute for OceanographyConservation Biology Institute SANDAG

County of San Diego departments U.S. Geological SurveySan Diego County Water Authority CA Center for Sustainable Energy

SD Natural History Museum SAICCA Center for Sustainable Energy Zoological Society of San Diego


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Average annual temperatures will be between 1.5 &4.5oF higher by 2050

Early November will feel like September currently does.

Our region will become even more vulnerable to drought.

Projected AnnualTemperaturesforSanDiegoCountyuntil2100

Regional Climate Change


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Sea Level Rise

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ProjectedsealevelriseforSanDiegoCountyuntil2050

Sea level is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches

This, combined with tidal and storm surges, will cause

harm or loss of our sandy beach areas, wetlands,coastal commercial, municipal, & residential properties


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Despite plans for water conservation, desalinization,and recycling, demand for fresh water will outstrip

supply by 2050

There will be growing potential for conflicts amongmultiple users

Water


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Plant and animal habitats in San Diego will beincreasingly threatened due to

climate change too rapid for some species to adapt increased wildfires & more intense droughts

habitat fragmentation and urban sprawl

ThesouthernSagebrushLizardisfoundonlyatelevationsabove5,000ft. Withalreadyreducedpopulations,theymaydisappearfromlocalmountainsthattop

out at6,000feetiftemperaturescontinuetorise.

Ecosystems


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Managing regional energy demand will be even morechallenging by 2050

Peak electricity demand will increase by over 70% withwarmer temperatures causing about 7%.

ProjectedchangeinsummerdaytimepeaktemperaturesinSanDiegoCountyintheyear2050

Electricity

Ad t ti O ti E l


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Adaptation Option Examples

Ad t ti O ti E l


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Adaptation Option Examples


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Thank You & DiscussionPlease contact:

Steve Messner

Ph: 858.220.6079

E-mail: [email protected]

Learn how SAICs energy and climate changeteam can help you.

Documents

BC3 SAIC Adaptation Event 10-07-09