Using Bioclimatic Envelopes to Identify Temporal Corridors

in Support of Conservation Planning in a Changing Climate

Nancy-Anne Rose1

Philip J. Burton1,2

1University of Northern British Columbia2Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada

3333 University Way,Prince George, British Columbia,

Canada V2N 4Z9

ObjectivesObjectives

To evaluate the likely persistence To evaluate the likely persistence (continuity) of conservation targets under (continuity) of conservation targets under climate changeclimate change

To identify geographical priorities in the To identify geographical priorities in the development of the Nature Conservancy of development of the Nature Conservancy of Canada’s Central Interior conservation planCanada’s Central Interior conservation plan

www.y2y.net/science/

An analogy: corridors in time, like corridors in space, are needed to provide connectivity

Spatial connectivity:

– should allow migration southnorth and low high elevation

Central Interior Study AreaCentral Interior Study Area

http://science.natureconservancy.ca/centralinterior/central.php

Conservation Area Design and Gap Analysis

Richness of Plant & Animal Species

Stewardship Areas (i.e. Protected Areas)

GAPS

A Simple Gap Analysis for BC

(courtesy of Dr. Geoff Scudder, UBC)

Climate Change: Climate Change: An Inconvenient TruthAn Inconvenient Truth

Expected Climate Change:Expected Climate Change:

(based on CGCM2 model output)

(Hamann & Wang 2006)

The Problem For Biodiversity The Problem For Biodiversity Conservation Planning:Conservation Planning:

Existing parks and protected areas may no Existing parks and protected areas may no longer be able to support the species, longer be able to support the species, habitats and values for which they were habitats and values for which they were designated.designated.

Can we use existing inventories and climate Can we use existing inventories and climate projection tools to identify candidate areas projection tools to identify candidate areas with better prospect for stability … for with better prospect for stability … for “connectivity” over time?“connectivity” over time?

An approach based on current distributions An approach based on current distributions -Bioclimatic Envelopes-Bioclimatic Envelopes

Hutchinson’s niche theory: Hutchinson’s niche theory: Fundamental and realized nicheFundamental and realized niche

Conceptual or functional space, Conceptual or functional space, defined on multiple axes defined on multiple axes (hypervolume)(hypervolume)

Envelope represent a climatic Envelope represent a climatic nicheniche

Methods – Step 1Methods – Step 1

Compile Compile information on information on current distribution current distribution (latitude, longitude, (latitude, longitude, elevation) for: elevation) for:

– rare plant species (74)rare plant species (74)– terrestrial ecosystem terrestrial ecosystem

units (31)units (31)– biogeoclimatic variants biogeoclimatic variants

(105)(105)

1276-118.51

48.55MSdk19

1200-117.28

60.74MSdk18

1135-122.550.1TEU 47

1301-136.28

50.47TEU 46

1230-121.948.77TEU 45

1200-105.54

48.688TEU 44

19-99.247

51.25SALIBOO3

54-127.68

55.25SALIBOO2

12-123.25

49.255SALIBOO1

elevlonglatTargetID1

ClimateBC/PP AttributesClimateBC/PP Attributes MATMAT - mean annual temperature - mean annual temperature MWMTMWMT - mean warmest month temperature - mean warmest month temperature MCMTMCMT - mean coldest month temperature - mean coldest month temperature TDTD - temperature difference between MCMT and MWMT - temperature difference between MCMT and MWMT

(continentality) (continentality) MAPMAP - mean annual precipitation - mean annual precipitation MSPMSP - mean summer precipitation - mean summer precipitation AH:MAH:M - annual heat moisture index - annual heat moisture index SH:MSH:M - summer heat moisture index - summer heat moisture index DD<0DD<0 - degree days below 0C - degree days below 0C DD>5DD>5 - degree days above 5C - degree days above 5C DD5-100DD5-100 - Julian date on which DD>5 reaches 100 - Julian date on which DD>5 reaches 100 DD<18DD<18 - degree days below 18C - degree days below 18C DD>18DD>18 - degree days above 18C - degree days above 18C NFFDNFFD - number of frost-free days - number of frost-free days FFPFFP - frost-free period - frost-free period bFFPbFFP - beginning of the frost-free period (Julian date) - beginning of the frost-free period (Julian date) eFFPeFFP - end of the frost-free period (Julian date) - end of the frost-free period (Julian date) PASPAS - precipitation as snow - precipitation as snow EXTEXT - extreme minimum temperature - extreme minimum temperature

Methods – Step 2Methods – Step 2

Run ClimateBC* or ClimatePP* climate interpolation tool Run ClimateBC* or ClimatePP* climate interpolation tool

*freely downloadable from www.ales2.ualberta.ca/RR/people/hamann/climate

Methods – Step 3Methods – Step 3

110000111001011

001010001100011

111110101110111

001101111000111

Current 2020

2050 2080

Identification of Temporal CorridorIdentification of Temporal Corridor

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Points are identified at the same climate will persist over time (~75 years)

The Interior Douglas-Fir Biogeoclimatic Zone

“collapsing the 4th dimension”

Temporal Corridors for the BC Biogeoclimatic Zones

Expect to see sufficient climate stability over the next 75 years to sustain currently recognized climax forest types in some areas but not others.

Temporal Corridor locations compared to current protected areas

Salix boothii (Booth’s willow) Nephroma occultum (Cryptic Paw)

North Pacific Interior Lodgepole Pine – North Pacific Interior Lodgepole Pine – Douglas-fir Woodland and ForestDouglas-fir Woodland and Forest

ICHmc2 ICHmc2 (Interior Cedar Hemlock moist cool)(Interior Cedar Hemlock moist cool)

Uncertainty AnalysisUncertainty Analysis

Variation in GCM scenariosVariation in GCM scenarios– Take mean, sample from distribution, or just accept latest greatest Take mean, sample from distribution, or just accept latest greatest

CGCM3 with A2 scenario?CGCM3 with A2 scenario? Variation in number of calibration data points or current Variation in number of calibration data points or current

range documentationrange documentation– Weight accordingly?Weight accordingly?

Variation in number of possible 19 ClimateBC attributes Variation in number of possible 19 ClimateBC attributes metmet– Weight accordingly or narrow field to most significant, parsimonious Weight accordingly or narrow field to most significant, parsimonious

subset?subset? Preference given to entire climatic range or just core rangePreference given to entire climatic range or just core range

– With different definitions, in order of increasing confidence, (100, With different definitions, in order of increasing confidence, (100, 95, 67, 50 percentiles) of core range?95, 67, 50 percentiles) of core range?

Applications and ConclusionsApplications and Conclusions Preliminary results suggest large impacts for Preliminary results suggest large impacts for

many plant species, communities, and many plant species, communities, and ecosystems in central B.C.ecosystems in central B.C.

Help focus conservation prioritiesHelp focus conservation priorities– to locations where we can expect continuity of the to locations where we can expect continuity of the

bioclimatic envelopes target elementsbioclimatic envelopes target elements

Temporal corridors - a conceptually simple but Temporal corridors - a conceptually simple but powerful toolpowerful tool– Pre-processing data layer in reserve selection Pre-processing data layer in reserve selection

processes such as MARXANprocesses such as MARXAN

Thanks!Thanks!

Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Research Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Research Cluster at UNBCCluster at UNBC

Ping Bai, GIS Specialist (UNBC)Ping Bai, GIS Specialist (UNBC) The Central Interior Ecoregional Assessment The Central Interior Ecoregional Assessment

Team (The Nature Conservancy of Canada)Team (The Nature Conservancy of Canada) NSERC, Forest Investment Account and NSERC, Forest Investment Account and

UNBCUNBC

Advantages of bioclimatic envelope Advantages of bioclimatic envelope modelling (BEM)modelling (BEM)

BEM is applied at a scale where climate is the dominant BEM is applied at a scale where climate is the dominant influenceinfluence

Only means of assessing the potential magnitude of Only means of assessing the potential magnitude of changechange

Useful first filter for identifying locations and species at risk Useful first filter for identifying locations and species at risk from climate changefrom climate change

Cost-effective (field surveys to assess distributions can be Cost-effective (field surveys to assess distributions can be prohibitive)prohibitive)

Can provide the only method of estimating current and Can provide the only method of estimating current and future distribution of poorly known speciesfuture distribution of poorly known species

Suitable for presence-only occurrence dataSuitable for presence-only occurrence data Must be applied and interpreted with an understanding of Must be applied and interpreted with an understanding of

the limitationsthe limitations

Spatial corridors are intended to provide population connectivity:

• gene flow to maintain genetic diversity• rescue of extirpated populations

• follow needed habitat as it shifts over time

(From Van Dyke 2003)