BANGLADESH Medium to High Level of Flood Forecasted (5-20 … · 2020. 7. 5. · flooding. (Threshold is Min. 2,000,000 people exposed to flood water inundation) Displacement: Projected

Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh

BANGLADESH

Needs Assessment Working Group

Situation and Anticipatory Impact Analysis

Monsoon Flood 2020

Exposed Population

7.53Million

05 July 2020

Geographic Exposures

Medium to High Level of Flood

Risk

Station Forecasted Danger Level

Exceeds from 08 July

(Probabilistic forecast , FFWC )

Low lying Char, Flood

plain, Main land18 Julydate of the peak

of flood

Date (from –to) Number of Affected:

Districts- Upazila-Union

Severely Affected Districts Population

Affected

10- 28 July 2019 28-162- 1056 9 District: Bagura, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Kurigram,

Sirajganj, Sunamganj, Sylhet, Tangail, Bandarban

7.6 Million

15 -27 August 2017 32-176-1173 9 District: Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur,

Lalmonirhat, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Nilphamari, Bagura,

Sirajganj

8.2 million

Historical Major Recent Monsoon Flood

Risk Level Trigger/Thresholds Anticipations and

RecommendationsLikelihood Anticipated Impact

Negligible

Minor

Medium

High

Critical Water level

forecasted at and

above danger level

up to 1m in

Jamuna river at 6

observation points

including

Bahadurabad.

Exposed Population: 7.53 million people exposed moderate

flooding. (Threshold is Min. 2,000,000 people exposed to flood

water inundation)

Displacement: Projected 12% (2,833,757 ) people within the24,479,820 people in flood impacted nine (9) districts are

estimated to be temporarily displaced. (Threshold is Min. 10% of

people of the overall population in the flood affected area are

displaced )

Inundation of Cultivable Land: 222,840 Hectare km cultivable

lands are anticipated to be inundated for 7-1 days.(Threshold is

Min. 5,000 hectares of crop land exposed to inundation)

The HCTT contingency

plan impact scenario

coincide with the

exposed population and

inundation of cultivable

also meet displacement

criteria. (Interpolation

from Glofas forecast).

THRESHOLD FOR RESPONSE PLAN ACTIVATION

Bahadurabad, Sariakandi, Chilmari,

Sirajganj, Jamalpur, Mymensingh,

Women

3.80Million

Persons With Disability

0.11 million

Child and adolescent(5 to 19 age)

2.48Million

0.61Million

Elderly Population(Age 60+)

Pregnant Women

0.22Million

PROJECTED IMPACTS VULNERABLE POPULATION BREAKDOWN

Version: 2nd Update

Highest PeakBahadurabad Point, 17 July

2nd Spell Monsoon Flood

from 15 July -30 July

Inside and Outside the

Protection Embankment

Medium to High Level of Flood Forecasted

(5-20 Years Return Period Flood)

71% of Probability of High Flooding (Glofas)

1.37Million

Katcha and Jhupri Houses

11.29% Area of from

forecasted districts % of Areas to be floodedInfant and Child

(0-59 Months)

0.84Million

75 Upazilas

307Unions

FromFrom 21

Districts

Forecasted

Return Period of

Flood (Flood

Severity Level)

Total

Population

Number

Union

Number

of

Upazila

Number of

Districts

Probability

5-20 Years

Return Period

(High)

3,038,598 136 38 15

[More than 90%

Probability of 5

years Return

Period

and 50-60%

Probability of

20 Years

Return Period]

2-5 Years

Return Period

(Medium)

4,498,610 171 38 8 [More than 90%

Probability

Flood]

High Resolution Map with Upazila Label

Note: Some of the district and upazila included in both of forecasted return period

https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh/needs-assessment-working-group

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Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh

About the report:1. The area of impacts identified by overlaying the GLOFAS 11-30 days forecast on 4 July 2020.2. Information from Different Sources (FBF Bangladesh Team, FFWC, BMD, and BBS) are compiled and interpolated for this report. No information is generated nor developed by NAWG.3. This report is only for internal use of Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh member’s preparatory activities not official information of GoB.4. For Regular Updates: https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh/needs-assessment-working-group

Feedback and Contacts: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

District Wise Exposed Population with Projected Impact of Monsoon Flood 2020

About the Working Group : The Needs Assessment Working Group (NAWG) isthe platform for government and non government humanitarian agenciesunder Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT). The secretariat of theWorking Group is hosted by CARE Bangladesh under the “SupportingBangladesh Rapid Needs Assessment (SUBARNA) Project.”

Fund Managed By Funded ByImplemented By

Disclaimer: This material has been funded by UK aid from the UK government, however

the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

For Live Updates

ByMinistry of Disaster Management and Relief

Government of Bangladesh

Data Source: GloFas, 04 July and BBS.Impact Anticipated from 15 July to 30 July 2020

Division DistrictProjected Population

Percentages of Extreme Poor 2017

Percentages of Poor 2017

Nos of Union_5-20 Years Return Period Flood (high Risk)

Nos of Union_2-5 Years Return Period Flood(Medium Risk)

Total Union to 2 to 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Return Period (High and Medium)

% of Union Exposed to more to 2 to 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Return Period

Nos of Upazila 2 to 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Return Period(High and Medium)

Total Population Exposed to 2 to 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Return Period

% of Areas Exposed to 2 to 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Return Period

% of Population Exposed to 2 to 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Return Period

Rajshahi Bogura 3,792,412 13.51 27.22 6 6 5.00% 2 119,901 10% 3.16%

Chattogram Chandpur 2,554,203 15.28 29.31 4 4 4.21% 1 69,432 3% 2.72%

Dhaka Dhaka 16,461,517 1.66 10.02 3 3 1.44% 1 45,297 4% 0.28%

Dhaka Faridpur 2,065,705 3.18 7.73 6 6 12 14.46% 3 81,270 12% 3.93%

Rangpur Gaibandha 2,619,376 28.90 46.66 12 12 14.12% 4 421,438 31% 16.09%

Mymensingh Jamalpur 2,473,509 35.21 52.52 14 14 18.92% 4 358,494 22% 14.49%

Dhaka Kishoreganj 3,230,134 34.08 53.54 32 32 27.12% 8 700,683 25% 21.69%

Rangpur Kurigram 2,355,232 53.92 70.82 7 36 43 57.33% 9 1,200,717 65% 50.98%

Rangpur Lalmonirhat 1,404,708 23.04 41.98 18 18 40.91% 4 522,889 40% 37.22%

Dhaka Madaripur 1,183,881 0.93 3.66 4 4 6.56% 1 72,033 10% 6.08%

Dhaka Manikganj 1,497,584 16.33 30.68 15 15 22.39% 3 250,866 29% 16.75%

Dhaka Munshiganj 1,597,325 1.22 3.05 11 11 15.94% 2 184,056 16% 11.52%

Mymensingh Mymensingh 5,741,770 9.59 21.98 16 16 10.26% 3 404,317 10% 7.04%

Mymensingh Netrakona 2,471,924 15.56 33.97 35 35 38.04% 8 836,503 37% 33.84%

Rajshahi Pabna 2,882,437 16.84 32.98 10 10 12.05% 1 256,793 11% 8.91%

Dhaka Rajbari 1,146,438 16.03 33.81 5 5 11.11% 2 112,732 14% 9.83%

Rangpur Rangpur 3,224,267 26.96 43.79 13 13 15.12% 3 453,393 14% 14.06%

Dhaka Shariatpur 1,226,257 4.95 15.71 7 7 10.00% 3 111,637 23% 9.10%

Mymensingh Sherpur 1,433,369 24.31 41.30 15 15 26.79% 5 414,221 24% 28.90%

Dhaka Sirajganj 3,512,269 12.39 30.47 24 24 27.27% 5 692,428 33% 19.71%

Dhaka Tangail 3,913,632 8.63 18.98 8 8 6.90% 3 228,108 10% 5.83%

Total 21 Districts 66,787,950 136 171 307 16.23% 75 7,537,208 21% 11.29%

Union specific detail data can be download from this (PDF and EXCEL) link.


https://www.globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecasting/



mailto:[email protected]



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https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh/document/20200705nawg-sitrep-and-anticipated-impactmonsoon-flood-20202

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BANGLADESH Medium to High Level of Flood Forecasted (5-20 … · 2020. 7. 5. · flooding. (Threshold is Min. 2,000,000 people exposed to flood water inundation) Displacement: Projected