Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The European Commission’s science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
Making sense rather than non-sense of demographic data
Gian Carlo Blangiardo (University of Milan Bicocca), Daniela Ghio
JRC SAS INGRA Evidence and Policy Summer School
6-8 September 2017
Senec, Slovakia
Making sense … Can public opinion on migration
play a role on policy decisions ?
60% Britain people put immigration and asylum in the top three troubles facing the country,
2016 - http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4653828.ece
75% UK thought the level of immigration into Britain in the last ten years had been too high,
2015 - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/02/why-we-like-migrants-not-immigration
95% Britons believed new immigrants should speak English
2013 - http://www.channel4.com/news/immigration-social-attitudes-natcen-ukip-survey
Migration and Brexit
One million People are granted legal residency each year in the United States
- 41% In the first year, according to the proposal made by the President Trump
- 50% Over a 10-year-period, to slash legal immigration to the United States
2017 - https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/us/politics/trump-immigration.html?mcubz=1
Migration policies
Making sense … Do we need migration?
simulation Migration and labor force participation
Migration and labor force participation
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-21/carvalho-why-migrants-may-be-our-greatest-economic-asset/6409042
Simulation An evidence-based rationale for
measuring
.15-19 26,688,267
.20-24 28,506,504
.25-29 31,277,679
.30-34 32,947,830
.35-39 34,065,832
.40-44 35,021,887
Age 2015 Age 2020
.10-14 26,216,823
.15-19 27,040,768
.20-24 29,744,753
.25-29 32,099,186
.30-34 33,680,614
.35-39 34,880,701
Population and Participation
Simulation An evidence-based rationale for
measuring
European Member States, 2020-2080 Productive Age 20-64
648,481
-2,530,718
2015-2020 - EU
Migration effect Generation effect
98,676
-5,860,874
2025-2030 - EU
Migration effect Generation effect
936,697
-4,808,133
2045-2050 - EU
Migration effect Generation effect
-1,8
82
,23
7
-5,1
58
,78
6
-5,7
62
,19
8
-6,7
06
,44
2
-5,4
49
,78
4
-4,2
55
,86
6
-3,8
71
,43
6
-3,2
76
,68
4
-2,3
10
,41
5
-989,3
37
-78
4,0
26
-1,9
76
,75
1
-1,6
11
,89
6
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080
Change
Policy implications
Policy implications
Provide evidence-based results and
Put them into actions
In your Member State, can we affirm that?
Migration policy can supply the active-age population deficit created by low birth rates
or
Migration effects on the national population structures are significant, but moderate in
comparison with the generation ones
or
Migration, no matter how controversial politically it is, makes sense economically: in the long term, migrants provide benefits to their destination
countries by increasing income per person and living standards
Old-age dependency ratio,
2050
Future profiles of EU
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Euro
pe
an
Unio
n
Belg
ium
Bulg
aria
Czech R
ep
ub
lic
Denm
ark
Germ
any
Esto
nia
Irela
nd
Gre
ece
Spa
in
Fra
nce
Cro
atia
Italy
Cypru
s
Latv
ia
Lithu
ania
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Hu
ng
ary
Ma
lta
Neth
erla
nds
Austr
ia
Pola
nd
Port
ug
al
Ro
mania
Slo
ven
ia
Slo
vakia
Fin
land
Sw
ede
n
United
Kin
gd
om
2015 2050
Future
profiles of EU
2015
5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Less than 1 year
3 years
6 years
9 years
12 years
15 years
18 years
21 years
24 years
27 years
30 years
33 years
36 years
39 years
42 years
45 years
48 years
51 years
54 years
57 years
60 years
63 years
66 years
69 years
72 years
75 years
78 years
81 years
84 years
87 years
90 years
93 years
96 years
99 years
Future profiles of EU
2020
5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Less than 1 year
3 years
6 years
9 years
12 years
15 years
18 years
21 years
24 years
27 years
30 years
33 years
36 years
39 years
42 years
45 years
48 years
51 years
54 years
57 years
60 years
63 years
66 years
69 years
72 years
75 years
78 years
81 years
84 years
87 years
90 years
93 years
96 years
99 years
Future profiles of EU
2030
5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Less than 1 year
3 years
6 years
9 years
12 years
15 years
18 years
21 years
24 years
27 years
30 years
33 years
36 years
39 years
42 years
45 years
48 years
51 years
54 years
57 years
60 years
63 years
66 years
69 years
72 years
75 years
78 years
81 years
84 years
87 years
90 years
93 years
96 years
99 years
Future profiles of EU
2040
5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Less than 1 year
3 years
6 years
9 years
12 years
15 years
18 years
21 years
24 years
27 years
30 years
33 years
36 years
39 years
42 years
45 years
48 years
51 years
54 years
57 years
60 years
63 years
66 years
69 years
72 years
75 years
78 years
81 years
84 years
87 years
90 years
93 years
96 years
99 years
Future profiles of EU
2050
5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Less than 1 year
3 years
6 years
9 years
12 years
15 years
18 years
21 years
24 years
27 years
30 years
33 years
36 years
39 years
42 years
45 years
48 years
51 years
54 years
57 years
60 years
63 years
66 years
69 years
72 years
75 years
78 years
81 years
84 years
87 years
90 years
93 years
96 years
99 years
% older pop = 65+ / pop
Migration impacts
http://openmigration.org/en/op-ed/how-immigrants-are-saving-the-italian-economy-and-pensions/
Making sense … Do we need migration to support our pension
system?
simulation What is the amount in millions of life-years,
of the demographic asset that can shape
a country’s profile in the future?
The long-term effects of migration
Discovering the
demographic GDP
“Often the demographer behaves irrationally
expecting to evaluate wealth, earnings and
losses of a subject based on the number of
pieces of money they own and their variations.
It is widely accepted that what really matters is
the sum of the products of the types of pieces
of money and their unit values.
We should approach a population in the same
way, in particular considering its composition in
terms of age and sex”
M.Boldrini, Demography, 1956, p.237
Demographic assessment
Slovakia, 2013
5,426
Population assets
500 300 100 100 300 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Men Women
Slovakia, 2013
Life-years
209,638
Life tables 2012
Demographic assets
11,000 6,000 1,000 4,000 9,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Men Women
Italy, Germany, France
Expected years
(millions)
Life tables 2012
Demographic asset
2,318
3,288
2,579 2,392
3,193
2,791
74
-95
212
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Italy Germany France
2000 2013 2000-2013
Demographic assets
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
114 177 161 116 149 170
2 -28 9
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Italy Germany France
2000 2013 2000-2013
Expected Life-years in education
(millions) Italy
Age 0-19
Demographic assets
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1,289
1,866
1,470
1,248
1,698
1,505
-41 -169
36
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Italy Germany France
2000 2013 2000-2013
Expected Life-years in active-age
(millions) Italy
Age 20-64
Demographic assets
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
916
1245
949 1,028
1,346
1,116
113 101 167
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Italy Germany France
2000 2013 2000-2013
Expected Life-years in
retirement age
(millions) Italy
Age 65+
No population can accept to shrink its DA
Countries Government consolidated gross debt per life-year in active age
2000 2012 2012–2000 2012-2000 %
Italy 956 € 1731 € +775 € +81%
Germany 697 € 1172 € +475 € +68%
France 562 € 1218 € +656 € +117%
Policy implications
When the policy objective is to increase the active-age population,
how demographers can support
policy-makers to design
a migration policy
what policy-makers should ask for adopting
a demographic approach
80/90 life-years lost
Any birth renounced/refused
50/60 life-years lost Any migrant no accepted
How to increase life-years?
Conclusion
Policies oriented to foster European population
to recover the lost demographic vitality
seem to be necessary to ensure
progress and social cohesion
Any questions? You can find us at [email protected]
