Bangladesh in 1987 a Spectrum of Uncertainties

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Bangladesh in 1987: A Spectrum of UncertaintiesAuthor(s): Syed Serajul IslamReviewed work(s):Source: Asian Survey, Vol. 28, No. 2, A Survey of Asia in 1987: Part II (Feb., 1988), pp. 163-171Published by: University of California PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2644817 .

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BANGLADESHIN 1987A Spectrum of Uncertainties

Syed Serajul IslamBangladesh presented a grim picture in 1987. The na-tion witnessed the proclamationof an emergencyfor the second time since

independence.1 A continuous political impasse between the forces of thegovernmentand those of the opposition political parties during Novembercompelled President Hussain Muhammad Ershad to proclaim a state ofemergency in the country. During the year many yawning gaps betweenpromises and performance also were revealed as devastating floods com-bined with political unrest left an adverse impact on the economy of thecountry. The downward trend in the economy was evident on all fronts-production, savings and investment, foreign aid and foreign trade opera-tions. Internationally, Bangladesh continued to maintain its "friendshiptoall," but the year did not produce any signs of imminent breakthrough oncritical issues in its relations with India and Pakistan.

Politics: Urgefor a ConsensusFrom the time he took power in 1982 General Ershad had continuouslytried to civilianize his regime, and the process was completed by the end of1986. The opposition political parties were in a fix and remained inactivein the earliest days of 1987. However, the situation changed with theyear's first session of the Jatiyo-Sangsad (parliament)on January24 whenthe 8-Party Alliance, led by the Awami League's Sheikh Hasina Wajed,staged a noisy walkout while the opposition 7-Party Alliance, headed bythe Bangladesh Nationalist Party's Khaleda Zia, held a street rally to tryto force the Parliament's dissolution. The 8-Party Alliance, which was themain opposition inside Parliament and had boycotted its first two sessions

Syed Serajul Islam is Assistant Professor in the Department ofPolitical Science, University of Dhaka.? 1988 by The Regents of the University of California

1. The first emergency was declared on December 18, 1974. Subsequently, the constitu-tion was amended transforming Bangladesh from a parliamentaryto a presidential system.163


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164 ASIAN SURVEY, VOL. XXVIII, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1988in 1986, participatedin the opening session of 1987 but refusedto listen tothe inauguralspeech of a "self-proclaimed"presidentand walked out. Onthe other hand, the 7-Party Alliance demanded dissolution of the existingParliament and the resignationof President Ershad so that there would bea fresh election that would ensure its parliamentaryparticipation. The 5-Party left-leaning conglomerate and the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islamialso expressed their support for the demands of the 7-Party Alliance.Despite the agitation of the opposition, the alliances failed to forge aunified movement. The 8-Party Awami Alliance was not happy with thedemand for dissolution of the Sangsadas it was already in it. This lack ofunity providedthe regime with the advantageof ruling without any mean-ingful opposition. The 7-Party and 5-Partycoalitions at this stage realizedthat they would not be effective unless they dropped their demand for thedissolution of Parliament. Therefore, instead of opposing the governmentand the 8-PartyAlliance simultaneously, they altered their strategyto facethe former singly and to make efforts to neutralize the latter. Both alli-ances now concentratedon a single objective-the resignationof PresidentErshad. Accordingly, they issued a countrywide call for a march on thecapital city on March 24 to protest the "illegal takeover by the militaryregime from an elected government." The date marked the fifth anniver-sary of President Ershad's accession to power, and the regime planned toobserve it as the "golden day." The opposition alliances called it the"black day." The government, however, reportedly refused permission tohold any rally in the metropolitan area of Dhaka.Facing a weak opposition, the government plannedto pass its budget forfiscal 1987-1988 with enhanced taxes, and put through a bill on the partic-ipation of the armedforces in the zila parishads (district councils). At thispoint, the Awami alliance realized that its presence in the Jatiyo-Sangsaddid not contribute much to its stature since nothing was happening in theParliament that it could do anything about. The ruling Jatiyo-Party (JP)had a majorityin the Sangsadand the presenceof the Awami League (AL)was an advantage for the regime. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP), on the contrary, was gaining popularityby "sticking to the persis-tent demand for Ershad's resignation."2 The AL also felt that as long asthe BNP remainedoutside Parliament,the streets would be the main polit-ical battleground of the opposition. The Awami alliance, therefore,expressed its desire to join in a united action opposition program. Conse-quently, all three alliances-8-Party, 7-Party, and 5-Party-and theJamaat-e-Islamiagreed to observe a countrywide, half-day hartal (general

2. Far Eastern Economic Review, July 30, 1987, p. 33.


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BANGLADESH 165strike) on June 21 in protest against the proposed budget and the LocalGovernment (zila parishad) Amendment Bill, 1987. This was the firsttime since March 21, 1986, that the opposition had manifested its wrathagainst the regime through a joint action program.3 And the issue thatinspired the alliances to unite was not the budget but the zila parishad bill.If the bill passed, President Ershad's position would be solidified so in-tensely that no agitationwould be possiblesince the army would have con-trol at the lower tiers of the administrative units.In the wake of the success of the hartal call, the opposition alliancesobserved "demandweek" beginningJune 22, with countrywide rallies anddemonstrations against the "anti-people" budget and calls for an end tothe "autocratic"rule of the Ershad regime. Despite the joint programofhartal and "demand week," the opposition alliances drifted apart again asthe 8-Party Alliance remained under pressure from the others to resignfrom Parliament in order to strengthen the antigovernment movement.Sheikh Hasina reiterated her pledge to continue movement "both insideand outside the Parliament." Meanwhile, the 1987-1988 budget wasplaced before Parliament and the AL staged another walkout. But theruling JP, with its majority,had no problem passing the budget, and it alsowas able to push through the zila parishad bill on July 12 allowing themilitary "non-voting representation"on the 64 district councils in Bangla-desh. The bill sparked immediate protests, strikes, and processions bytrade unionists and student organizations that lasted for two days. Theopposition political partiesdeclared a 54-hourhartal, claiming that the billwas the first step toward institutionalizing the militarywithin the civil ad-ministration. During the hartal, protestersburned cars, ransackedbuild-ings, and encircled the Bangladesh Secretariatbuilding for 90 minutes; atleast seven persons reportedlydied and more than a hundred were injured.Consequently, in August the zila parishad bill was sent back to Parliamentby the president to be reviewed, but it never was discussed again in theSangsad.The opposition's success in resisting the zila parishad bill through a har-tal inspired the alliances to go for a hardline movement. They nowadopted a common plan for October 7 for laying siege to the capital cityand paralyzing the government administration. The date was subse-quently shifted to November 10 due to the devastation caused by severefloods throughout the country. The government took a number of precau-tionary measuresprior to November 10, including the arrestof a few lead-

3. Since Ershad's rise to power in 1982, the opposition political parties had jointly organ-ized movements against the regime. However, there was a crack in the unity of the opposi-tion when the Awami alliance decided to participate in the parliamentaryelection of 1986.


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166 ASIAN SURVEY, VOL. XXVIII, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1988ers of the opposition, cessation of train service, massive requisition bygovernment of buses and trucks plying interdistrict routes, and physicalblockades of people moving toward Dhaka by the law-enforcing agency.

The police actions resulted in hartals for two consecutive days, Novem-ber 11 and 12. Both Khaleda and Hasina were arrested by the police andinterned at their residences, and the government issued a "shoot-at-sight"order against arsonists and looters. The opposition then prolongedits har-tal program on November 14 and 15 and expressed its determination tocontinue the movement until President Ershadfell. It succeeded in enforc-ing strikes almost every day until November 24; then from November 29to December 1, it observed a continuous nationwide 72-hour hartal. Agrim picture of deterioratingorder prevailed in the country.Consequently, President Ershad proclaimed a state of emergencythroughout Bangladeshon November 27 in pursuanceof Article 141 A (1)of the constitution. All fundamentalrights were suspended;local newspa-pers and reporters,both national and international, were strictly advisednot to report any activities of the opposition; and while politics and polit-ical parties were not banned, full restrictions were imposed on politicalactivities. Ataus Samad, the BBC correspondent in Bangladesh, was ar-rested and detained under the Special Powers Act, and all BBC operationswere closed. On the following day, November 28, President Ershad ad-dressed the nation to explain the reasons for proclaiming the emergency.He called the opposition's program since November 10 "planned anar-chy," and "planned terrorism";he emphasized that he would not surren-der to any terrorism or "illegal and undemocratic pressure," and that anychange in the government should follow the procedures prescribedin theconstitution. The president put forward four specific proposalsto arriveata satisfactory solution to the situation in conformity with national interest:(1) the government was ready to discuss all reasonable issues, individuallyor collectively, with the opposition political parties; (2) if a consensusabout new elections could be arrived at through discussion, then pollscould be held at a date acceptable to all, if necessary ahead of schedule;(3) the government would implement all measures framed on the basis ofconsensus and acceptable to all for the holding and management of fairelections; and (4) if any party obtains the mandate of the majority of thepeople through elections and wants to amend the constitution in the Par-liament, there would be no opposition from his side.4Within a day or two of the president's address, a few opposition leaders,but not Khaleda and Hasina, were released in order to expedite negotia-

4. The New Nation (Dhaka), November 29, 1987.


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BANGLADESH 167tions between the government and the opposition. All this, however, didnot improve the situation. All ten Jamaat-e-Islami MPs and three in-dependent membersrelinquishedtheir seats in the Sangsad in order to in-tensify the opposition movement, and the AL was also seriouslyconsidering resignation from the body. At this stage President Ershad, inaccordance with the power conferred on him under the constitution, dis-solved the Sangsadon December 6 to pave "the way for holding fresh pollsto get an electoral mandate on various national issues including the consti-tution."The Jatiyo-Sangsad of 1987 was the shortest-lived of any parliamentinBangladesh, and this was the first time an elected president had to resort tothis provisionof the constitution in the face of a political crisis. Four daysafter Parliament was dissolved, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina were re-leased. President Ershad urged the opposition political parties to partici-pate in the midterm election, scheduled to be held within 90 days of thedissolution, and the governmentallowed indoor politics and TV and radiocoverage for the opposition. But all such moves proved futile as bothKhaleda and Hasina rejected them, saying that they would not contest anyelection under the present government. They reiterated their demand thatPresident Ershad resign and that elections take place under a "neutralcaretaker"government. The Liaison Committee of the 21 opposition par-ties urged the upazila (subdistrict) chairmen to resign and to observedawn-to-dusthartalson December 22 and 23. While the opposition move-ment continued, the government planned to hold a nonpartisan or in-dependent election, restricting candidates from using the name of anypolitical party. This left the nation in a state of suspended animation.Thus, while the Ershad regime did not collapse, the opposition did notbudge an inch from its demands. What made the November-Decembermovement different from the past was the scale, quantity, and quality ofrepressedviolence bursting forth. It is, however, unlikely that the opposi-tion political parties can force Ershad to resign through hartals andprocessions. Only the military could overthrowhim and, for now at least,Ershad still enjoys the support of the armed forces. Perhaps the eventualalternative for resolving the deadlocked situation in the nation's politicswill be the imposition of martial law again in Bangladesh.

The Economy: TrailingBehind the TargetThe political unrest from the beginning of the year, with hartals andstrikes in the industrialbelts, and the unprecedentedfloods in September-October engulfing about one third of the territory had an adverse impacton all sectors of the economy. The nation observed more than 30 days of


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168 ASIAN SURVEY, VOL. XXVIII, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1988hartals and strikes, and one estimate put the loss sufferedby the economyduring the month of November alone at $200 million in terms of produc-tion.5

While floods are a common phenomenon in Bangladesh, the magnitudeof devastation wrought by the floods in 1987 surpassed all past records,affecting about 20 million people in 51 of the country's 64 districts interms of both life and property. According to an official estimate, about500 people died and thousands were marooned on embankments and high-ways. Crops on 2.5 million acres of land were completely destroyed, whilethose on 1.5 million acres were damaged. Floods also damaged innumer-able roads, bridges, culverts, and large buildings. According to a WorldBank estimate, Bangladesh lost roughly 1.2 million tons of rice (valued at$350 million), which along with damage to infrastructure,caused a 25%gap between food grain production and requirementsin 1987.Consequently, the growth rate of production during the year was verylow. The GDP grew only 4.4% against the target of 5% during fiscal1986-876 and, due to the 1987 losses, the governmentforecast only a 2.5%growth rate in 1987-88 against the budgetary target of 5.1%. The Plan-ning Commission now estimates a 2% decrease in agricultural productionagainst the officialtargetof a 3.7% increaseduring 1987-88, and it has alsorevised its food production target from 17.5 million to 15.5 million tons forthe same period.7 Industries were under similar strains. By the end ofJune, the GDP growth rate in industry was 7.4%, but in the July-Septem-ber quarter industry registereda fall of 5% injute textile production, 4.7%in cotton textiles, 2.5% in cotton yarn, 12% in paper, and 11.5% in steelproduction, compared to the previous quarter. Therefore, industrial pro-duction will, it seems, decrease against the projectionof an 8.7% increasefor fiscal 1987-1988.Bangladesh's terms of trade also declined sharply. The country set atarget of $1000 million in 1987 from exports as against earnings of $980million in 1986, but earnings dropped during the second half of the year.The country lost some export markets, particularlyin the garment sectors,as buyers were not confident about on-time delivery of goods. Investors,both national and foreign, also displayed uncertainty. Since overall exportearnings did not improve, the balance of payments deteriorated in 1987.In 1972, the first year of Bangladesh's existence, the total foreign debt was$65.1 million; in 1987 it had increased to $7557.1 million. Thus Bangla-

5. Holiday (Dhaka), December 18, 1987, p. 1.6. Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh Economic Survey, 1986-87 (Dhaka: Government ofBangladesh) (in Bengali), p. 1.7. Courier,4:21 (December 25, 1987), p. 14.


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BANGLADESH 169desh's export earnings had not increased appreciably with respect to theincrement of external loans.8 Disbursement of the considerable foreign aidcommitment (both grant and loan) also was not satisfactory.

The above trend in the Bangladesh economy indicates that it will con-tinue under heavy strains during the 1987-1988 fiscal year. The down-ward trend in the rate of production and foreign trade will accelerate inthe coming months as production has been practically paralyzed. In alllikelihood, the period will end up with a GDP 2% less than that of fiscal1986-1987.ExternalRelations: No MajorBreakthroughsBangladesh has achieved a high level of success in its diplomatic effortsduring the last few years, but in 1987 no significant progress was made inexternal relations. Bangladesh could not solve many of the bilateral issuesthat exist, either with India or Pakistan. Nor were any of these unresolvedissues expedited when the heads of state or government of the SAARC(South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries assembledin Kathmandu, Nepal, for a three-day summit in November and discussed

numerous multilateral issues. In the second half of 1987, Bangladeshmade significant moves toward strengthening ties with China, includingPresident Ershad's three-day visit to the country, which aroused India'ssuspicion. Bangladesh-India relations are still facing jolts on the questionsof repatriationof Chakma refugees from camps in India, sharing of Gan-ges water, and transfer of the Tin-Bigha corridor to Bangladesh. Bangla-desh also failed to make any progress with Pakistan toward solving theproblemof repatriatingstranded Pakistanis. The distributionof assets andliabilities with Pakistan has virtually become a dead issue.Outside the region, however, Bangladesh made efforts to strengthen re-lations with France, Japan, and Rumania. The French and Japanese for-eign ministersand the presidentof Rumania all paid first-timeofficial visitsto the country. The Japanese minister's visit in August produced agree-ment by Japanto offer all sorts of economic aid to Bangladesh, continuingthe generous assistance it has been providing since Bangladeshbecame in-dependent in 1971 (in 1980 Bangladesh became the largest recipient ofJapan's bilateral Official Development Assistance (ODA) program interms of net disbursement). In February, Bangladesh's foreign ministerpaid a six-day official visit to Japan, and to Poland and Bulgaria in May.

8. Bangladesh Bank, Economic Trends (Dhaka: Government of Bangladesh, August1987), p. viii.


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170 ASIAN SURVEY, VOL. XXVIII, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1988During the Rumanian president's visit in March, the two sides agreed todiversify their economic cooperation and signed four differentagreementson economic (two on investment promotion and protection and long-termeconomic arrangements),scientific, and cultural cooperation. Trade withRumania has been confined mainly to barter, with $5-6 million worth ofgoods going in each direction, but it appearsthat Rumania has been show-ing keen interest in developing its relations with Bangladesh.Bangladesh maintainedits fraternalrelationswith the Muslim countries,many of which offered massive relief during the floods, including six heli-copters from the Iraqui government to transportrelief materials to remoteareas. In July President Ershad paid an official visit to the Yemen ArabRepublic (North Yemen), the firstby a Bangladeshihead of state and seenas a significant move toward opening up new avenues for trade, cultureand economic cooperation. In April the visit of the deputy foreign minis-ter of Oman resulted in the signing of an air serviceagreementbetween thetwo countries. Bangladesh's relations with Iran, however, were consider-ably chilled in 1987, and the foreignminister'splannedvisit to Iran in Julywas postponed on the pretext of his indisposition.Bangladesh's principalsuccess in the international arenain 1987 was thereceipt in June of the United Nations Population Award by President Er-shad. The president was cited for his "personal leadership" in directingfamily planning efforts that increasedcontraceptiveuse from 18.6% of thepopulation in 1981 to 29.6% in 1985, reducing the annual populationgrowth from 3.2% to 2.4%.9 In other areas, a ministerial level meeting ofthe Asian Group of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Devel-opment (UNCTAD) was held in March in Dhaka. The resulting DhakaDeclaration noted with concern the continuing and increasing erosion ofmultilateralism and its substitution by bilateral arrangements, ignoringand bypassing the multipolarity and diversity of the contemporaryworldeconomic scene. Finally, Bangladesh joined the Commonwealth summitin Vancouver, Canada, in October where important issues such as theworld economic situation, Commonwealth financialcooperation, and mul-tilateral trade negotiation figured prominently.

ConclusionFollowing the civilianization of the military regime in 1986, the year 1987brought new developments to Bangladesh. The formal end to martial lawwith the holding of parliamentaryand presidentialelections could not dis-pel the earlier moods of frustrationof the opposition alliances. The oppo-

9. Asia Week,June 28, 1987, p. 33.


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BANGLADESH 171sition political parties observed hartals and strikes throughout the year,demanding the resignation of President Ershad and leading to the procla-mation of emergency. Closely related to the dynamics of the domesticpolitical situation was the downward trend in the state of economic affairs.The journey to a stable democratic polity is still a remote vision to whichthe nation eagerly looks forward. Once John F. Kennedy said, "let usnever negotiate out of fear but let us never fear to negotiate." An emphasison "negotiations" is perhaps essential for resolving the deadlocked situa-tion in the politics of Bangladesh in 1987.

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Bangladesh in 1987 a Spectrum of Uncertainties