dealing with uncertainties

“Dealing With UNCERTAINTIES in implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation

- An Adaptive Policymaking Approach”

By:

Vishal Mehta

Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management

Delft University of Technology

Structure of the Presentation•Problem outline

•Adaptive policymaking Approach

•Research Question

•Research methodology

•ISA and its impacts

•Thinking Phase

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

•Implementation phase

•Conclusions and Recommendations

Problem Outline

Accidents on road

• In Netherlands there were 1082 deaths and 19,000 injuries in road traffic in 2001.

•The estimated accident cost is around 7 billion US$ per year in Netherlands.

•Also in EU there are 42,500 deaths and 3.5 million injuries in road traffic.

SPEED of the vehicle contributes 1/3 of the total road accidents.

Speed targets [NL] for 2000 were 5-10% lower avg. Speed than 1985 and V90

Actions

•Road categorisation

•Speed limit for each road

•Intro to black boxes

•Roundabouts

•Optical lane narrowing

•Dynamic warning signs

•Airbags and seat belts

•Speed cameras and police surveillance

Implementing these actions, the speed targets were not achieved and also 40% reduction in deaths and 28% reduction in injury level due to accident on road [target for 2010] still needs to be attained.

Intelligent Speed Adaptation [ISA]

•A promising branch of ADAS to improve traffic safety on the road

•Controls the speed of the vehicle as per the speed limit of the road.

•Reduces fatalities due to accident on road ranging from 18% to 59% for different kinds of ISA.

Problem Outline

Uncertainties related to ISA implementation

•New Technology

•Only small scale and simulation studies

•User acceptance

•Standards for implementing

•Organisational, legal and technological uncertainties

•Effects of external factors to the system

•From a policymaking point of view it is important to deal with these uncertainties as ISA seems to substantially contribute to the goal of traffic safety.

Problem Outline

Identify the problem

Analyze and compare alternatives

Selection & screening of alternatives

Develop scenarios

Decide on outcomes of interest

Specify objectives

Implement alternative or policy

Monitor and evaluate results

Traditional policy making

Shortcomings

•Any scenario has zero probability of occurrence.

•Trend breaking scenarios

•Assumptions

•Single static policy

•No rethinking about the policy in accordance with the changing information in the system.

•Traditional Policy making approach is categorised as sit and wait attitude towards dealing with uncertainties.

The Adaptive Policymaking Approach

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions

Reassessment

Other ActionsUnforeseen events

Changing preferences

THINKING PHASE

I. STAGE SETTING

II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY

Definition of success

Constraints

Policy Option setObjectives

Necessary condition for success

Basic Policy

III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY

Vulnerabilities

Mitigating Actions

Hedging Actions

Sign Posts Triggers

Certain

Uncertain

IMPLEMENTATION PHASE

Research Question

“How can Adaptive Policy be developed to deal with vulnerabilities [uncertainties] in implementing ISA [as a policy option] in existing Dutch Transportation System?"

Research Methodology [framework of Adaptive Policymaking Approach is adopted]

•Literature study – Road Transportation system, Intelligent Speed Adaptation, Intelligent Transport Systems, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, Dutch transport system and

Adaptive Policy making.

•Basic Analysis – System model, Actor &Network Analysis and Objective Analysis

Developing Adaptive Policy

Step 1 – Identifying the objective [reduce accidents], constraints, policy option [ISA] and definition of success.

•Step 2 – Specifying the basic policy for implementation and identifying the necessary conditions of success.

•Step 3 – Identifying vulnerabilities related mitigating and hedging actions and their signposts and trigger level for each signposts.

•Step 4 – Functioning of the policy during implementation and what policy actions – defensive or corrective or reassessment are to be taken in response to change in signpost information.

Intelligent Speed Adaptation

Types of ISA

By Automation level

•Advisory

•Voluntary

•Mandatory

By function

•Fixed

•Variable

•Dynamic

9 combinations of ISA are possible

Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture(GPS)

ANALYSIS

Brake

Pedals

Sensors Intelligence[CPU]

Actuators

Buttons

Wheel rotation

Wheel speed

GPS Navigator

Engine Speed Throttle

Control Systems

Display PanelPosition: Latitude & LongitudeLocation:

RoadDirectionSpeed limitDistance from destinationOthers

Application software

MAPS

DataVehicle speed

Velocity Location & timeEngine speedOverriding %Driver’s ID & behaviour

Data Processing

Transmission to server via GSM

Data StructuringCDAS

GPS receiver

Satellite

Speed limits

Memory

Communication system

Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture (Beacon)

Vehicle

Beacon

Transmission tower

Main Server

Comm. Tower

IBM Compatible

System

Function

Subsystem

Function

Equipment

Function

ISA

Controlling and adjusting the speed of the vehicle on the road according to the speed limit posted.

Global Positioning System

GPS helps in positioning or locating the moving vehicle on the road.

Control Systems

Controls the operation of the system installed in the vehicles. It senses the vehicular motion - processes it and actuates the control system to control the speed.

C-DAS

Collection and data acquisition about individual vehicle and their movement on the road.

Beacons

The beacon transfers the signal about the speed limit to the vehicle.

SatelliteLocating the vehicle on the road and sending the signal (micro/radio wave) to the vehicle about its position in latitude and longitude.

Antenna & Preamplifier Processes the received signals send by the satellite and forward it to the navigator.

GPS NavigatorReads the signal received and displays the vehicle on the map stored with software in CD and also speed limit for each road. It helps in navigating the vehicle to the destination.

SensorsSenses wheel rotation and brake status and sends information to CPU.

CPUInformation on wheel rotation & location of the vehicle or by beacon is processed & speed limit is identified from stored data.

ActuatorsAfter receiving the processed information about the speed limit, it controls the speed of the vehicle on the road and offers resistance if the driver attempts to override and apply active braking.

GPS

Beacon

Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Functions of different system components of ISA and its hierarchy

Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects

Different tests on effects of ISA on road transport system have been done in United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, France, etc.

•Accidents [100% penetration level]

ISA TypeSpeed limit type

Best estimate of injury accident reduction (%)

Best estimate of fatal and serious accident reduction (%)

Best estimate of fatal accident reduction (death) (%)

Advisory ISA

Fixed 10 14 18

Variable 10 14 19

Dynamic 13 18 24

Voluntary ISA

Fixed 10 15 19

Variable 11 16 20

Dynamic 18 26 32

Mandatory ISA

Fixed 20 29 37

Variable 22 31 39

Dynamic 36 48 59

Application Road type Severity

Estimated accident reduction [%]

Low “BEST” High

General speed limit advice

Non built up All injury 8.7 17.5 25

Built up All injury 0 6.5 19.4

Geometry related

Non Built up All injury 0 10 20

Darkness Unlit Dual Carriageway

All injury 0 20 48.5

Adverse weather and road surface

Non Built up All injury 7.5 20 48.5

System Road type

Severity

Accident type

estimated accident reduction [%]

Low “BEST” High

Fixed

Non built up roads

All injury

All 10 31 56

All built up roads

All injury

Pedestrian 13.5 21 28

All built up roads

All injury

Non pedestrian

10 15 20

VariableNon built up roads

All injury

Geometry- based single carriageway

30 41 74

Dynamic

Non built up roads

All injury

Darkness 23 37 50

Rain and wet road

10 30 50

Snow 33 57 80

Advisory ISA

Mandatory ISA

Source UK Leeds


•Speed Distribution and Speed

Variable Speed offences reduction % Average speed reduction km/hBefore ISA After ISA Before ISA After ISA

1st period 2nd period 1st period 2nd periodLund active gas

30 km/h 33.7% -14.1% -6.9% 21.9 -0.8 -0.250 km/h 28.2% -15.0% -12.8% 36.4 -1.1 -1.2370 km/h 35.9% -18.1% -13.6% 58.7 -2.0 -2.0Borlange - informative

30 km/h 33.8% -9.6% -3.4% 25.3 -0.6 -0.650 km/h 31.1% -16.4% -11.8% 38.7 -1.5 -1.570 km/h 21.4% -13.0% -9.4% 58.7 -2.8 -3.090 km/h 25.1% -16.7% -11.4% 84.4 -2.5 -3.4110 km/h 12.4% -9.5% -7.4% 97.3 -1.1 n.a.

Source UK Leeds Source: Sweden

Source: Sweden


It also has other effects like

•Decrease in Fuel Consumption

• Decrease in Emissions

•Improves Traffic flow and road capacity

•Travel time almost remains the same

•Driver feels more taxing, irritating, frustrating, under stress, etc.

BUT all these ISA results are based on small scale and simulation studies, so it is uncertain that it the impacts on large scale implementation and in real world would be same as discussed in results

Intelligent Speed Adaptation –Test in Netherlands

30km/h 50km/h 80km/h

•A study into the costs and benefits of lowering speeds of cars in the Netherlands has shown that enforcing the current speed limits would lead to a reduction in the number of hospital admissions by 15% and in the number of fatalities by 21%.

•Fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 11% and the emission of nitrogen oxides by 11%.

•Positive effects would lead to a decrease in the cost to society worth a total of US$ 250 million per year in the Netherlands.

•The interaction between the ISA drivers and non-ISA drivers can lead to undesirable manoeuvres by the non-ISA drivers while passing or tailgating.

User Acceptance

Speed Patterns

Source: -NL Test RWS

The Adaptive Policymaking Approach

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions

Reassessment

Other ActionsUnforeseen events

Changing preferences

THINKING PHASE

I. STAGE SETTING

II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY


Constraints

Policy Option setObjectives

Necessary condition for success

Basic Policy

III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY

Vulnerabilities

Mitigating Actions

Hedging Actions

Sign Posts Triggers

Certain

Uncertain

IMPLEMENTATION PHASE

In the following slides adaptive policy is developed.

Step 3- SPECIFYING THE REST OF THE POLICY

IMPLEMENTATION

Step 2- ASSEMBLING BASIC POLICY

Step 1 - STAGE SETTING

Identify Constraints


Policy optionsObjectives

Specifying thePolicy

Necessary conditions forsuccess

VULNERABILITIESare identified.

Develop Mitigatingactions for certainvulnerabilities

Develop Hedginga c t i o n s f o ru n c e r t a i nvulnerabilities

S i g n p o s t s a r eidentified for differentvulnerabilities

Trigger levelof the signpostare set

Reassesment

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions

Other Actions,Unforeseen

events

Step 1 – Stage Setting

Objective

•Traffic Safety: Reduction in accidents [problem owner]

Setting Policy Option

•Considering the accident scenario in NL and speed accident relationship and positive effects of ISA in reducing accidents Intelligent Speed Adaptation is selected as a policy option that has to be implemented.

Constraints

•Financial constraints

•Congestion on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation

•Average travel time on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation

•Air and Noise pollution should not increase because of ISA

Authorities

Market constellation

Demand side constellation

Supply side constellation

Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management- NLEuropean UnionLocal MunicipalitiesLaw enforcement agencies Automobile Industry [National and EU]Original Equipment Manufacturers for ISAService Providers [speed data and communication]Road Operators Insurance companiesResearch institutes and universitiesTransport companiesDrivers/UsersMotorists Other road usersTraffic policeEnvironmental Agencies


Actors and Stakeholders involved in implementing ISA


Definition of Success

•Reduction of road fatalities to 750 and injuries to 14,000 by 2010

•Achieving the V90 target

•Congestion travel time Air and Noise pollution on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation

System Diagram

Socio EconomicSub System

Road Sub System

Environmental SubSystem

Driver’s Sub System

Economic Change

Transport Demand

Fuel Price

TechnologicalAdvancement

Accidents

Congestion

Travel time

Local Pollution

Intelligent SpeedAdaptationEXTERNAL

VARIABLES

POLICYINSTRUMENT

OUTCOMES OFINTEREST

System Boundary


IMPLEMENTATION


Step 1 - STAGE SETTINGIdentify Constraints






Develop Mitigatingactions for certainvulnerabilities


S i g n p o s t s a r eidentified for differentvulnerabilities

Trigger levelof the signpostare set

Reassesment

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions


events

Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy

Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation

•The basic policy is implemented for unsafe road, unsafe vehicles, unsafe drivers and unsafe traffic conditions.

Environment

Infrastructure

VehicleDriver

Other road users & traffic conditions

Intelligent Speed Adaptation

By Level of Automation By Function Communication technology

Categories for implementation

Infrastructure: Road category of Motorway, Highway, Rural road or Urban roadVehicle: Cars, Light vehicle or Heavy vehicle, motorbikes, etc.Driver: Can be categorised by Age, Driving Experience, Commercial or Private Drivers, etc.Traffic Conditions: High or Low Traffic density areas, Mixed or Homogenous traffic conditions Type of ISA: By Automation level – Advisory, Voluntary &Mandatory

: By function of speed – Static, Variable and DynamicCommunication Technology: GPS or Beacon Environment: Weather conditions, lighting conditions, road surface, visibility, etc.


Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation

•Specifying the road category – unsafe roads- URBAN ROADS [30-80km/h]

•Specifying the vehicle type – unsafe vehicle - CARS

•Specifying the user group – unsafe drivers – YOUNG DRIVERS [18-34 yrs.]

•Specifying the traffic density and traffic conditions - ALL

•Specifying the type of ISA – VOLUNTARY DYNAMIC ISA

•Specifying the communication technology – GPS & BEACON

Hence the basic policy to be implemented is Voluntary Dynamic ISA on Urban roads for Young Car drivers.

The basic policy is implemented on voluntary basis and not on mandatory basis.


Necessary Conditions of Success

•Economic conditions

•Social conditions

•Technical/Technological conditions

•Organizational and Political conditions

•Legal conditions

•System related conditions

Positive Net Present Value and Market Success

•NPV

•Consumer demand

User Acceptance

Accurate speed limit data

Reliable communication technology

Operational reliability of ISA

Cooperation between Actors and Stakeholders

Developing Standards

Liability Issue in times of accident

Privacy Issues

Decrease in speed and speed distribution [on higher side]

•Penetration level

•Rate of penetration level

•Cases with wrongly posted speed limit

•Cases with lack of communication signal

•Cases with malfunction of ISA system•Interest of actors and stakeholders

involved in implementation

•Change in speed and speed offences on road

Indicators


IMPLEMENTATION








D e v e l o pM i t i g a t i n gactions for certainvulnerabilities


Signposts arei d e n t i f i e d f o rd i f f e r e n tvulnerabilities

Trigger levelo f t h esignpost areset

Reassesment

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions


events

Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy

Market FailureUser acceptanceLegal barriersISA Operation problems

Transport demandEconomic changeFuel priceTechnology advancement

Uncertainty about the effect of ISA on internal factors of system: like speed, speed distribution, speed offences, traffic density, owning &operating cost.

Policy Making Process

Policies

Policy Maker Problem owner and Stakeholders

Goals, Objective & Preferences

External factors

System domain for policies

Internal factors

Outcomes of

interest

ISA

Uncertainty related to change in stance of actors in implementing ISA

Uncertainty about desire value of the outcomes and valuation by actor as ISA is a new technology

Identifying Vulnerabilities


Mitigating Actions and Hedging Actions

•These actions are to be implemented now

•Mitigating actions are developed for certain vulnerabilities and Hedging actions are developed for uncertain vulnerabilities.

Example:

User Acceptance – uncertain

Hedging Actions

•Training programs to use ISA

•Incentives

•Advertisements and campaigns

•User report

Signposts

•Monitoring systems

•Information collected during implementation

User Acceptance

•Rate of Penetration level

•Results of user report


Triggers

•Critical Value of the Signpost.

•Policy Actions would be taken in response to the change in trigger level.

Success Criteria

Time limit

Signposts Desired values Undesired or Critical values

Regret Level 1 [less critical]

Regret Level 2 [more critical]

Conditions of reassessment

POLICY ACTION

Triggers

60% penetration level

Rate of Penetration

Increase in 1% / month

Less than 1% per month

0.7% to 0.9% rate of penetration per month for 1 year

0.5% to 0.7% rate of penetration per month for 1 year

Condition of Reassessment

POLICY ACTION

5 years

Identifying and Handling Triggers

Implementation PhaseSignpost 1

Signpost 2

Signpost n

CollectINFORMATION

YES

NO NO ACTIONDecide critical value attained

CheckRegret level

Level 1 Level 2

Defensive Action

Corrective Action

Desired change in

regret level

YES

NO

Step 1 restart again

YES

NO

Reassessment

Check Conditions of Reassessmen

t


IMPLEMENTATION








D e v e l o p

M i t i g a t i n gactions for certainvulnerabilities


Signposts arei d e n t i f i e d f o rd i f f e r e n tvulnerabilities

Trigger levelo f t h esignpost areset

Reassesment

Defensive Actions

Corrective Actions


events

Implementation Phase

•Defensive actions are the one which are taken to defend the policy

•Corrective actions are related change in basic policy or policy action or change in definition of success

•Conditions of Reassessment

Contd. With the example of user acceptanceSignpost – Rate of Penetration level

Regret level 1 – Defensive actions

•Increase in speeding fines so that people prefer to buy ISA rather than paying fine

•More Incentives

Regret level 2 – Corrective actions

•Introduce ISA on Mandatory basis

•Implement for all age drivers or all road category.

Condition of Reassessment

The rate of penetration level is not increasing over the period of time or has increased but later decreases

Conclusions

Related to ISA

•Implementation surrounded by uncertainties

•User acceptance is the most important necessary condition of success.

Related to Adaptive Policymaking

•Logical and systematic way of dealing with uncertainties as compared to traditional policy making

•Lot of legal and political support is required

Recommendations

Related to ISA

•Issues to be addressed before implementation of ISA are Legal and Technical operations of ISA system.

Related to Adaptive Policymaking

•Development of more analytical tools which would help in developing policy and also during implementation

Business

dealing with uncertainties