7/31/2019 Badey Poling Memo, 6-8-12

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1901 L Street, NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20036 | Tel: 202-621-1411 | Fax: 202-621-1427 gbastrategies.com

To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: June 5, 2012

Meehan on Thin Ice: Pennsylvanias 7th

District Up for Grabs

Pennsylvanias newly-drawn 7th

Congressional District is a prime opportunity for a Democratic

pickup in Novembers election. Voters in this toss-up district are not at all enthusiastic about incumbent

Pat Meehan and any early support he has disintegrates almost immediately when they hear basic

information about his positions on important issues.

A recent survey of likely voters in PA-71

shows that, while Meehan is better known at this point

than challenger George Badey, Badey has the potential to rise in dramatic fashion here if he is able toinform voters about Meehans record in Washington.

Democrats Can Win in this Toss-up District

Congressional race is a toss-up. In a generic Congressional contest between a Democrat and aRepublican, the race is a statistical tie, with the Republican holding a slight 40 38 percent edge.

But Obama and Casey have real advantages. By a 48 41 percent margin, 7th District voterschoose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in the race for President. Obama leads Romney by 23

points among Independent voters, a crucial voting block in this district. Senator Casey leads

Republican Tom Smith by an even wider margin, 51 37 percent.

Meehans Early Edge Evaporates, Boosting Badey

Voters not interested in sending Meehan back to Congress. More than half of the electoratecan identify Congressman Meehan, but only 28 percent say that he deserves to be re-elected to

Congress, while 39 percent say that someone new should get a chance . Even in Delaware

Countythe Congressmans homejust 35 percent say he deserves re-election.

Meehans support disintegrates. Pat Meehans initial 50 30 percent lead is incredibly soft andbuilt almost entirely on name identification. After voters hear two statements about theCongressmans record on Medicare and womens health, his 20-point advantage disappears

completely. Badey leads Meehan at this point, 41 38 percent, before most voters have even

been introduced to him.

1Survey conducted May 30-June 3, 2012 among 400 likely general election voters in Pennsylvanias new 7

th

Congressional District. Interviews were conducted with respondents on both landlines and cell phones. Findings

include a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.