Authoritarianism and Democratization in the Middle

EastA Comparative Analysis

Plan● Bassam Tibi “Why they can’t be democratic”

2008 ● Tarek Masoud “Has the Door Closed on Arab

Democracy?” 2015● Larry Diamond “Why are there no Arab

Democracies?” 2010● Michael Ross “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”

2001● Lisa Blaydes and Drew Linzer “Elite

Competition, Religiosity and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World” 2012

Bassam Tibi: “Why they can’t be democratic.”● His argument: Islam can be compatible with democracy,

however Islamism cannot.● Definitions:

o Islam: a faith and a system of ethics. Is not inherently political

o Islamism: a political ideology based on the religion of Islam● Provides a critique of the way in which the prospects of

democracy in the Islamic world are discussed. o “Are Islam and democracy compatible?” and “How

democratic is Islamism” are two very different questions (44)● Islamism:

o Distinction between violent and peaceful Islamists o Difference in means, not in ends: nizam Islami based on

shari’a law o Neither are compatible with democracy

Islamism and Pluralism“Is there potential for Islamist parties to develop a ‘genuine commitment to democracy’ by embracing a liberal understanding of democratic pluralism?” (45)● No.● Nizam Islami is totalitarian in nature - sacred and non-

negotiable ● Any shifts in thinking are ingenuine rhetorical strategies or

amount to an abandonment of Islamism● There often isn’t a sharp distinction between violent and

peaceful Islamism eg. Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq

● Conclusion: what is to be done?● Critique: does not develop the argument for when and how Islam

can be compatible with democracy.

Tarek Masoud “Has the Door Closed on Arab Democracy?”

Tarek Masoud “Has the Door Closed on Arab Democracy?”

Explaining failure of democracy

Explaining failure of democracy

Argument: authoritarianism is exceptionally durable in MENA. He deconstructs arguments for failure of democracy, but does not offer an alternative argument. Instead, he says that the results of the Arab Spring will shed more light onto the subject. 1. Transition to democracy is a long process. 2. Lack of economic and social development hinders

democracy 3. Islam4. Arab culture

Prospects of democracy in MENA

● If democracy were to emerge, it would probably be through and evolutionary rather than revolutionary process

● Terry Lynn Karl: in Latin America, revolutions either resulted in counter-revolutions or one party states

● Most likely to emerge in countries where the state was strong enough to survive the Arab Spring, but not enough to not to respond to it eg. Morocco, Jordan, Algeria

● Critique: lacks conclusiveness in explaining failure of democracy due to weak methodology

Larry Diamond “Why are there no Arab Democracies?”

Argument: authoritarian statecraft and geopolitics explain the absence of democracy in the Arab

world

Rejected Arguments● Religion and culture

o “there is a big ‘democracy gap’ among states in the world, but it is an Arab much more than a ‘Muslim’ gap” (94)

o culture of autocracy and obedience: democratization occurred in states in which authoritarianism has always prevailed

● Sectarian and ethnic divisions o Iraq and Lebanon (most democratic) vs Egypt and Tunisia

(most authoritarian) *outdated* ● Lipset’s modernization theory - underdeveloped

o “one can find at any level of development, and by any measure, numerous democracies that are about as developed as the respective Arab nondemocracies.” (97)

● Oil curse

Authoritarian statecraft

● Authoritarianism in the Middle East is characterized by “guided pluralism, controlled elections, and selective repression” (99) o guided pluralism: eg. Jordan o controlled elections: eg. Egypt 2004-5o selective repression: eg. Egypt 2004-5

Geopolitics1.Foreign aid is like oil: it is a source of

rent2.Arab-Israeli conflict

o doesn’t provide any evidence or support for this argument

3.Arab league

Michael Ross “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”

● Question: does oil hinder democracy? If so, what is the causal mechanism?

Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksG-isNXyug

Michael Ross “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”

● Hypothesis: oil hinders democracy because of three effects: o the rentier effect: oil rents keep taxes low and patronage

high -> maintain low pressure for representation o the repression effect: oil rents are used to create large

security apparatuses that repress demands for democratization

o the modernization effect: economic growth from oil wealth does not produce the social and cultural prerequisites for democracy

● Methodology: uses pooled time-series cross-national data from 113 states between 1971 and 1997o tests the effects of oil and other mineral wealtho other variables: income, Islam etc.

Results

● Oil and mineral wealth have significant anti-democratic effects ● Other primary commodities that do not produce rents

(agriculture and food) do not● Oil and mineral curse is not limited to the Middle East ● Higher taxes are associated with democratic governments

(rentier effect)● Oil wealth is associated with higher military spending

(repression effect)● Oil wealth is associated with lower levels of occupational

specialization (modernization effect)● Critique: correlation is not causation.

Blaydes & Linzer “Elite Competition, Religiosity and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World”

● Question: Why do many Muslims hold anti-American sentiments?

Blaydes & Linzer “Elite Competition, Religiosity and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World”

● Hypothesis: popular anti-Americanism is an elite-led phenomenon that is intensified in circumstances where there is greater competition between Islamist and secular factions.

● Methodology: o case studies: Turkey, Morocco, Senegal o multilevel statistical analysis of public opinion data from

13,000 Muslim respondents in 21 countries ● Findings: the most anti-American sentiments are found in

countries in which the Muslim population is less religious (i.e. more divided on the Islamist-secular issue)

Theory● Paradox: “although religious Muslims are more anti-American

than their secular compatriots, anti-American attitudes are most prevalent in more secular countries...” (226)

● Argument: o attitudes towards America are shaped by the messages that

individuals are exposed to by political elites and mass mediao environment of higher political competition between Islamist

and secular groups -> stronger incentive to exploit anti-American sentiment for political gain -> more anti-American rhetoric -> more anti-American attitudes

o therefore, lower anti-Americanism in more hegemonic societies and higher anti-Americanism in more divided societies

Findings● Survey findings:

o Religious Muslims are more anti-American than secular compatriots

o Anti-Americanism is more prevalent in countries where there is a higher perceived Islamist-secularist divide and where there is lower levels of religiosity

● Case study findings:o Turkey: high level of perceived struggle, low level of

religiosity - high anti-Americanism o Morocco: medium level of perceived struggle, medium level

of religiosity - medium anti-Americanism o Senegal: low level of perceived struggle, high level of

religiosity - low anti-Americanism

Overview● Tibi: Islamists cannot be democratic because their ideology is

totalitarian● Masoud: Authoritarianism in the Arab world is exceptionally

durable, but if democracy were to appear anywhere, it would be through evolutionary means

● Diamond: The absence of Arab democracies can be explained by authoritarian statecraft, which exhibits a cyclical pattern of liberalization, and geopolitical factors

● Ross: Economic growth generated by oil wealth hinders democracy

● Blaydes and Linzer: Anti-Americanism is most prevalent in Muslim majority countries with significant struggle between elite political groups as they use anti-American sentiment to gain political support

Discussion Questions

● Is it better to include or exclude Islamists from politics? Think about how you define “Islamist”.

● Do you agree with Masoud that if democracy were to arise in the Middle East, it is most likely going to arise in the countries that weathered the Arab Spring, such as Morocco and Jordan?

● Is democracy more likely to succeed through evolutionary or revolutionary reform?

● Do you think democracy is the inevitable end - or an inevitable stage - in political development?