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AssessingReliabilityintheWesternInterconnection
VijaySatyalandByronWoertz,WECC
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Overview
• Who/WhatisWECC?• CurrentstateoftheInterconnection• Assessingreliability2017– 2034• Stakeholdercollaborationonreliabilityassessments
• Afoundationforreliabilityassessmentdata• Nextsteps
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
NERCRegions3
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
WhoWeAre• WECCisanot-for-profit
organizationthatexiststoassureareliablebulkpowersystemintheWesternInterconnection
• ApprovedbyFERCastheRegionalEntity fortheWesternInterconnection
• NERCdelegatedsomeofitsauthoritytocreate,monitor,andenforcereliabilitystandardstoWECCthroughaDelegationAgreement
• LargestofeightRegionalEntities• BothaRegionandan
Interconnectionmakesitunique—betterperspective
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
WhatWeAreIncorporated: 2002Business: 501(c)(4)not-for-profit
socialwelfareorganizationBoardofDirectors: 10Members,IndependentEmployees: 134Members: 361Offices: SaltLakeCity,UT(HQ)
Vancouver,WA
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
DataasofSeptember19,2017
WhoWeWorkWith
• ProfessionalStaff• Members• Policy/OpinionLeaders
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
WhatWeDo
Mission:Toassurethenear- andlong-termreliabilityoftheBulkElectricSystemintheWesternInterconnection.
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Vision:ToservethepublicinterestbyassuringtheBulkElectricSystemisreliable;tobestinformtheRegion’sleadersintheirdecisionsregardingcriticalelectricreliabilityissuesfacingtheWesternInterconnection;andtopartnerwithourstakeholderstohelpthemplan,developandoperatetheBulkElectricSysteminaccordancewithindustry-acceptedreliabilitystandards.
Purpose:ToassurethepublicofthereliabilityandsecurityoftheWesternInterconnection’sbulkpowersystem.
HowWeDoItReliabilityPlanningandPerformanceAnalysisPlanningServices: BaseCases,TransmissionStudies,ScenarioPlanningReliabilityAssessments: PowerSupplyAssessment,StateoftheInterconnectionPerformanceAnalysis: EventAnalysis,OperationalPracticesSurveyStandardsDevelopment: RegionalStandards,VariancesandInterpretationsTrainingandEducation: HumanPerformance,SystemOperation
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Risk-basedComplianceMonitoringandEnforcementEntityRegistrationComplianceRiskAssessments:
InherentRiskAssessmentInternalControlsEvaluation
Monitoring:CriticalInfrastructureProtectionOperationsandPlanning
StandardsViolationEnforcement
SpectrumofReliabilityAnalyses
• VoltageStability• Generation
interconnection/retirementanalysis
• N-1contingencystudies
• ResourceAdequacy• TransmissionCongestion• PathUtilization• FrequencyResponse
• Projectbenefitsandselection
• Costallocation
Utilitylevel(localized)------- Regional------- Interconnection-wide
TimeHorizonsofourWork10
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
ReliabilityAssessmentandPerformanceAnalysis
Past Present FuturePerformance Analysis EventAnalysis ReliabilityPlanning
• Reliabilityvulnerabilityassessments
• ReliabilityPerformanceIndex
• Specialassessments/deepdiveintoemergingissues
• StateoftheInterconnectionreport
• OperationalPracticesassessmentandrelatedmaterials
• CoordinationwithNERCondatamanagement
• Technical Committee supportandfacilitation
• EventAnalysisandlessonslearned
• CausecodingandRootCauseanalysis
• Eventtrending
• Operationalguidelinesandbestpractices
• RACsupportandfacilitation
• AnchorDataSetdevelopment
• Basecasedevelopment• Production costmodel
development• Shortcircuit datacollection
• ProbabilisticResourceadequacyassessments
• NERCandregional reliabilityassessments
• Special reliabilityassessments
• Databasemanagementandmodeldevelopment
• Scenariodevelopment
• BESexceptionprocessing
• ProjectcoordinationandPathRatingprocess
SOTI2017Trends11
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Coal, 38,174, 14%
Geothermal3,5391%
Hydroelectric,72,044,27%
NaturalGas,104,261,39%
Nuclear7,6793%
Other5,3562%
Solar
14,3576% Wind,
21,663,8%
2016NameplateCapacity(MW)
Coal,209,064,24%
Geothermal17,7442%
Hydroelectric,234,577,
27%
NaturalGas,257,753,29%
Nuclear61,7827%
Other14,0232%
Solar25,4473%
Wind,52,022,6%
2016NetGeneration(GWh)
WesternU.S.RenewableResources12
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
5k
10k
15k
20k
2000 2005 2010 2015
MW
WesternU.S.RenewableCapacity
Biomass Geothermal Solar Wind
ChangingResourceMix:Solar13
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
-2,000
3,000
8,000
13,000
18,000
23,000
2014 2015 2016 2026*
WesternUSNameplateCapacitySolarTrends(MW)*
Utility-Scale Small-Scale Linear(Small-Scale)
EclipseImpactsonSolarEnergyProduction
14
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
SolarEclipse15
MWTG– OrganizedMarketEfforts16
ReliabilityContext
• Focusquestions:– WhatpotentialreliabilityrisksmighttheWesternInterconnectionfaceinthenext1-20years?
– HowcanWECCbestunderstandthosepotentialrisks?
• Whatis“reliability?”– Theabilitytomeetloadwithavailableresources.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
ResourceAdequacy
Economics
SystemStability
PolicyandRegulation
WhatIstheCommonCase?
DataSet
2026CommonCase
Loads
Resources
Transmission
Model
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
• ProductionCostModel(PCM)
• SecurityConstrainedEconomicDispatch(SCED)
• Resourcedispatchforeachofthe8,760hoursinthestudyyear
WECC’sviewofthemostlikelycombinationofloads,resourcesandtransmissiontopology10
yearsinthefuture
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1
2
(1) Boardman– Hemingway(B2H)[500kV](2) Delaney– ColoradoRiver(TenWestLink)(3) Delaney– PaloVerde[500kV](4) Delaney– SunValley[500kV](5) EnergyGateway:Wallula– McNary[230kV](6) EnergyGatewaySouth:Aeolus– Mona[500kV](7) EnergyGatewayWest:Bridger– Populus[500kV](8) EnergyGatewayWest:Windstar– JimBridger[230-500kV](9) EnergyGatewayWest:Midpoint– Hemingway[500kV](10) EnergyGatewayWest:Populus– Midpoint[500kV](11) EnergyGatewayWest:Populus– CedarHill– Hemingway[500kV](12) HarryAllen– Eldorado(CentennialII)[500kV](13) I-15CorridorReinforcementProject(CastleRock– Troutdale)(14) Morgan– SunValley[500kV](15) Pawnee– DanielsPark(16) WestofMcNaryReinforcementProjectGroup2(BigEddy– Knight)
4
5
6
7 8
9
2026CommonCaseTransmissionAssumptions(CCTA)ThepurposeoftheCCTAistoprovideabasicsetoffacilitiesthatTEPPCcanuseasastartingpointfortheirownstudies.TheCCTAisalistoffacilitiesthatareexpectedtobein-serviceby2026.
RegionalPlanningCoordinationGroup(RPCG)CAISO– CaliforniaIndependentSystem SIERRA– SierraSubregionalPlanningGroupCTPG– CaliforniaTransmissionPlanningGroupSWAT– SouthwesternAreaTransmissionCG– ColumbiaGrid AESO– AlbertaElectricSystemOperatorCCPG– ColoradoCoordinatedPlanningGroupBCCPG– BCCoordinatedPlanningGroupNTTG– NorthernTierTransmissionGroup
Bluetext– Indicated“UnderConstruction”
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2026CCTransmissionUtilization20
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
P45SDG&E-CFE
P60Inyo-Control
MostHeavilyUtilizedPaths
P52SilverPeak-Control
MostHeavilyUtilizedPaths
U75 U90 U99
P25PacifiCorp/PG&E115kVInterconnection
13.30% 8.94% 6.42%
P45SDG&E-CFE 11.23% 6.79% 4.73%
P52SilverPeak-Control55kV
12.89% 5.08% 0.00%
P83MontanaAlbertaTieLine
10.50% 3.79% 0.09%
P36TOT3 20.99% 3.41% 1.00%
P60Inyo-Control115kVTie
10.82% 1.59% 0.00%
P83MontanaAlbertaTie
P36TOT3
P25PacifiCorp/PG&E
SystemOperatingLimit(SOL)Exceedances(SOTI2017)
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
2k
4k
6k
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016
Num
bero
fExceeda
nces
SOLExceedancesbyQuarter
NewCommitteeResponsibilities22
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
PlanningCoordinationCommittee
• BaseCasedevelopment• Powerflowcases• Dynamicandstabilitystudycases
• Systemmodelvalidation• Specialassessments• Underfrequency loadshedding• Disturbancevalidation• Applicationsofsynchrophasordata
TransmissionExpansionPlanningPolicyCommittee
• CommonCasedevelopment• Productioncostmodelstudycases
• Capitalexpansionmodelstudycases
• Scenariodevelopment• NERCassessments• Specialassessments• Probabilisticandstochasticassessments
ReliabilityAssessmentCommittee
Recommendation&BenefitsofRAC23
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Recommendation:CreateaReliabilityAssessmentCommittee(RAC)andconsolidateTEPPC&PCCfunctionsintothisnewcommittee
PotentialBenefits:• Reducedduplicationindatacollection• Accurate,consistentandcompletedatasetforWestern
Interconnectionplanning• Increasedbuy-infromusers• ImprovedcoordinationbetweenWECC’snear- andlong-term
planning• Enhancedverificationofdatasourcesandmodelingassumptions• Morefocusedstakeholderengagementandparticipation• Planningexpertisefocusedwithinasinglecommittee• Improvedefficiencyandcosteffectiveness
RACOrganizationalStructure
ReliabilityAssessmentCommittee
ScenarioDevelopmentSubcommittee
Whatmightbeplausiblefuturesfor
theWesternInterconnection?
StudiesSubcommittee
Whatstudiesshouldweconductto
understandpotentialreliabilityrisks?
ModelingSubcommittee
Whatmodelsshouldweusetoconductdesiredstudies?
DataSubcommittee
Whatdatadoweneedtooperatethe
models?
WhatpotentialfuturereliabilityrisksshouldWECCbethinkingabout?
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
AnchorDataSet(ADS)• PlanningObjectiveforWECC:
– Consistencyin“initialassumptions”aboutthe“statusquo.”– CommonStartingPoint– ConsistentinitialdatafromtheRPGsthathelpsWECC
populatetheirBaseCase(s)forreliability/transmissionplanningstudies– AssistsentitiesandRPGswithFERCOrder1000planningandprojectselection.
• Reflectskeyplanningassumptionsof:– Resourceandtransmissiontopology– RPScompliance– Otherpublicpolicyconsiderations(relatednewproject
investments)
• KeyProducts:2028HSPF;2028ADSPCM,Changefilesandroundtrip-validated1-hourexports.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
Overallprocess26
RPGs-CompleteRegional
TransmissionPlans
Compile&ReviewInitialADSDataSubmittals
ReviewDraftADS(PFand
PCM)
CompileandPostFinal
ADS
DevelopDataforNextADS
CurrentReliabilityAssessments
BaseCases
PowerFlowModel
8OperatingandScenario
Cases
2Five-YearSeasonalCases
110-YearSeasonalCase
Year10Assessments
ProductionCostModel
2026CommonCase
4LegacyStudies(Storage)
7NewPCMStudyCases
Year20Assessments
CapitalExpansionModel
2034Reference
Case
4Scenario-BasedStudy
Cases
2AdditionalCapEx Study
Cases
OtherAssessments
StochasticAnalysis
(throughJHU)
Gas-ElectricInterfaceStudy
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
ContactInformation
VijaySatyal,[email protected](801)883-6847
ByronWoertz,MBA,[email protected](801)883-6841
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
ExtraSlides
29
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
OperationalADSWorkflow(1.0)31
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L
F
K
InitialADSProcessWorkflowVer1.0–WPR-WECC(05/18/2017)InitialADSProcessWorkflowVer1.0–WPR-WECC(05/18/2017)
DataSu
bmitters
(PC,TP,BA)M
OD-
032
DataSu
bmitters
(PC,TP,BA)M
OD-
032
WPR
WPR
PFDataW
ork
Grou
pPFDataW
ork
Grou
pPC
MData
WorkG
roup
PCMData
WorkG
roup
WEC
CStaff
WEC
CStaff
L&R
L&R
Apr-Jun2018Apr-Jun2018Jul-Dec2016Jul-Dec2016 Jan-Mar2017Jan-Mar2017 Apr-Sep2017Apr-Sep2017 Oct-Dec2017Oct-Dec2017 Jan-Mar2018Jan-Mar2018
G LH
C
E J
D
BA
2028PFPre-Run
Final2028HSPFADS
2028PCMCompilation
Draft2028PCM
Final2028
PCMADS
2028DataRequest
2028HS1BaseCaseCompilation–MOD-032Process(Aug-Dec2017)
ISO2026PF/PCM
CG2026PF/PCM
NTTG2026PF/PCM
WC2026PF/PCM
WPRSMEGroup
compileschangecasesinGridViewformat(andassociated
dynamicsdata)
Latest2026WPRRegionalTPRoundTrip-capableDataset(consolidatedPF&
PCMdata)
Develop2028PCMOtherData(withWPR/DataSubmittersparticipationasappropriate)
LatestRegionalPlanningAssumptionsfor2028ADS(i.e.2026-2028LocalTOincrementalload,resource,transmissioninformation)asdevelopedthroughtheindividual
RegionalPlanningProcesses
IdentifylatestRegionalTP
topologyandPCM-specificdata
changestoWECC2026CCv1.7
Sameasabove
Sameasabove
Sameasabove
WPRDataSubmitter
Coordination
2026WPRPFwithDynamicsOnlytobeusedforthe2028DataRequest
ViaRoundTrip
WPRDataSubmitter
Coordination
WPRDataSubmitterCoordination
CoordinatedReviewofdraft2028ADS–ChangeCasesPCMOther
Data
WPRDataSubmitter
CoordinationWPRStakeholderCoordination
Exported2028PFADS
RACOversight–ADSProcess
Check
1Eachplanningregionmakestheirowndecisionsregardingthescopeofchangestheywishtosubmitforcompilation2WECCneedstwoweekstoconvertthecaseintoPSS/EforsomeDataSubmitters3DisclaimertobeaddedthatthisisaSeedCasetoassistin2028HS1BaseCaseDevelopment,nottobeusedforstudies.4ThisloopisessentialforallTopologyandResourcechangesthatincludesRPSandResourceAdequacy5ThiscasewillbereviewedbytheDataSubmitters,WPRsshouldbeinvolvedthroughtheDataSubmitters.6Nofurtherchangescanbemadetothetransmissiontopology,resources,orRPScompliantPFCase.
2
3RACDa
ta&M
odeling
Subcom
mittees
4
6
7
8
1
Round-Trip
PosttoADSSite
7Dependingonwhat"OtherData"isneeded,thiswilltakemoretime.WECCstaffwilldefinewhichitemswillbedecidedincommitteeandbystaff.8WPRwillcoordinatewithrespectiveBAstoreconcile2017L&Rdataforthe2018submittals.9RoundtripprocessisforvalidatingPFandPCMdatasetconsistency.10RACOversightoftheADSProcessOnly.11ADSSitewillincludepostedversionofthe2028PF,Exported2028PF,2028PCMandChangeFiles.
FOOTNOTES
Validate2027Assumptions(2017data)
True-Upfollowingyear’ssubmission
9
10
2028HSPFCommentPeriod
5
ADSDeliverables
PCM-specificdata
Validateforconsistency
PosttoADSSite
YesNo
Coordinate2027LoadAssumptions(2017L&Rdata)
PosttoADSSite
11
Whatdoestheworkflowmean?• RPGshavethefirsttouchpointwithDataSubmitters.
• RPGswillensuretheseed-dataprovidedtoWECCreflectsRPSconsiderations/mandates.
• WECCwillNOTundertakethenextCCTAeffort(PCM)
• DataSubmitterswillhaveaccesstotheMOD-32HSPFBaseCaseprocessandreviewWPR/IPRinputs.
32
